Survey USA becomes the third pollster (after CNN/Time and Selzer and Associates for the Des Moines Register) to find Barack Obama above 50 percent in Iowa, with a double-digit lead over John McCain. The poll found Obama ahead 54-43:
Among women, Obama leads by 20 points; among men, Obama and McCain tie.
Among voters younger than Barack Obama, Obama leads by 15. Among voters older than John McCain, Obama leads by 9. Among voters who are in-between the two candidates’ ages, Obama leads by 7.
Among white voters — 95% of Iowa’s likely voters — Obama leads by 8 points.
11% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 8% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; Independents break for Obama by 9 points.
John McCain leads among Republicans, conservatives, those who attend church regularly, pro-life voters, those focused on terrorism, among the 16% of likely voters who say they may yet change their mind, and in Southwest Iowa. Obama is slightly ahead in Northwest Iowa and leads by double digits in the northeast and southeast portions of the state.
Yes, the Big Ten Battleground States poll showing Obama and McCain tied in Iowa is an outlier.
I’m thinking the McCain/Palin rally in Cedar Rapids on Thursday is the last we will see of the Republican ticket before November. We may get another visit from Joe Biden, but I doubt Obama is going to spend any more time in Iowa before the election either.
Side note: Rob Hubler and Becky Greenwald have to be encouraged by the news that Obama is slightly ahead in northwest Iowa and far ahead in northeast Iowa.