Bumped. Don’t forget to enter by Tuesday morning at 6 am!
I realize I forgot to include a question about how many Iowa counties Obama will win (99 total). If you like, you can reply to your own election prediction with a guess on that too.
If you’ve already submitted a prediction and want to revise it, just reply to your comment with your updated guesses.
I am still trying to decide whether to go with my optimistic or pessimistic scenario and will post my final prediction on Monday night.
There are no tangible prizes here—only bragging rights for the winners.
Enter if you dare. Try to come up with guesses for all the questions. Before you complain that these questions are tough, look at the Swing State Project prediction contest.
Your vote percentage guesses do not have to add up to 100 percent if you believe that minor-party candidates or write-ins will pick up a few percent of the vote.
1. What percentage of the national popular vote with Barack Obama and John McCain receive?
2. How many electoral votes will Obama and McCain win? (538 total)
3. What percentage of the vote will Obama and McCain win in Iowa?
4. What percentage of the vote will Bruce Braley and Dave Hartsuch receive in the 1st district?
5. What percentage of the vote will Dave Loebsack and Mariannette Miller-Meeks receive in the 2nd district?
6. What percentage of the vote will Leonard Boswell and Kim Schmett receive in the 3rd district?
7. What percentage of the vote will Tom Latham and Becky Greenwald receive in the 4th district?
8. What percentage of the vote will Steve King and Rob Hubler receive in the 5th district?
9. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans have in the Iowa House after the election (currently 53-47 Dem)?
10. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans have in the Iowa Senate after the election (currently 30-20 Dem)?
11. Which Congressional race in Iowa will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
12. Which Iowa House or Senate race will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
13. Nationally, which U.S. Senate race will be decided by the narrowest margin (in terms of percentage of the vote difference, not raw votes)?
14. In the presidential race, which state will be decided by the narrowest margin (again, in terms of percentage of the vote)?
The deadline for entering this contest is 6 am on November 4.
Please don’t e-mail me your predictions. Post a comment if you want to enter the contest. If you’re a lurker, this is an ideal time to register for a Bleeding Heartland account so that you can post comments.
UPDATE: Here are my predictions. I went with my optimistic scenario nationally but my more pessimistic scenario for Iowa, having been emotionally scarred by too many disappointing election nights.
1. National popular vote, rounded to the nearest point: Obama 54 percent, McCain 45 percent
2. Electoral college: Obama 353, McCain 185 (Obama wins all Kerry states plus IA, NM, CO, NV, OH, FL, VA and NC)
3. In Iowa, Obama will win 56 percent, McCain 43 percent
4. Braley 62, Hartsuch 38
5. Loebsack 57, Miller-Meeks 40 (I have no doubt that she will overperform McCain in this D+7 district, but it won’t be enough. She should run for the statehouse someday.)
6. Boswell 55, Schmett 45
7. Heartbreaker in the fourth: Latham 51, Greenwald 49. I expect too many independents to split their tickets. That said, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Greenwald win this race on Obama’s coat-tails. I just don’t see that as the most likely outcome.
8. Again, I wouldn’t rule out a surprise victory for Hubler if a lot of Republicans stay home tomorrow, but my prediction is (sadly) going to be King 54, Hubler 46.
9. The Iowa House will have 56 Democrats and 44 Republicans.
10. The Iowa Senate will have 33 Democrats and 17 Republicans.
11. IA-04 will be the closest Congressional race.
12. My gut feeling is that as in 2004, an Iowa House or Senate district not being targeted by either party will turn out to be closer than any of the targeted races. However, I have no idea how to select that kind of district, so I’m going to guess that the House district 81 race between Phyllis Thede and Jamie Van Fossen will be the closest.
13. The closest U.S. Senate race will be in Georgia.
14. North Carolina will be the state decided by the smallest margin in the presidential race (this was tough for me, because I also think Georgia and Missouri will be very close).
SECOND UPDATE: I forgot to predict that Obama will carry 61 of Iowa’s 99 counties.
Also, do great minds think alike? I find very little to disagree with in John Deeth’s prediction post. Meanwhile, Chris Bowers’ final election forecasts for the electoral vote and U.S. Senate are identical to mine. I predicted a slightly bigger net gain for Democrats in the U.S. House than Bowers did, though.