Updated voter registration numbers in Iowa's Congressional districts

The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office (pdf) show 666,279 active no-party voters statewide, 620,868 active Republicans, and 602,636 active Democrats. That represents slightly larger gains for Democrats than Republicans since the beginning of August. After the jump I’ve posted the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district.

Any comments about the 2012 elections in Iowa are welcome in this thread.

The Rothenberg Political Report’s latest rankings of competitive House districts does not include the IA-01 race between incumbent Bruce Braley and challenger Ben Lange. Rothenberg considers the IA-02 contest between incumbent Dave Loebsack and challenger John Archer to be “Democrat favored.” He puts the the “Toss-up/tilt Republican” label on both the IA-03 clash of incumbents Leonard Boswell and Tom Latham and the IA-04 race between incumbent Steve King and challenger Christie Vilsack. Although I haven’t seen internal polling from any of the Congressional races, I doubt that Vilsack has as good a chance of winning as Boswell. True, Boswell can’t keep pace with Latham’s fundraising. But he is an incumbent who’s represented most of the counties in IA-03 before and has outperformed the top of the Democratic ticket in previous presidential elections. He also faces a much smaller GOP voter registration advantage in his district, as you can see below.

Active voter registration numbers as of September 2012

IA-01


County Democrats Republicans no-party voters
Allamakee 2,188 4,338 3,075
Benton 4,707 5,093 7,289
Black Hawk 26,854 20,008 28,713
Bremer 3,660 5,014 6,944
Buchanan 3,936 3,214 6,175
Clayton 3,318 3,205 4,537
Delaware 2,563 3,854 4,644
Dubuque 24,750 14,607 21,837
Fayette 3,677 4,121 3,942
Howard 1,951 1,482 2,516
Iowa 2,795 3,714 4,716
Jackson 5,916 2,693 5,511
Jones 3,521 3,681 5,658
Linn 47,653 38,117 48,343
Marshall 7,416 7,962 9,077
Mitchell 1,820 2,557 2,646
Poweshiek 3,516 3,742 4,645
Tama 3,214 3,443 4,208
Winnishiek 3,310 4,398 4,568
Worth 1,585 1,801 1,974
 
total 158,350 137,044 181,018

IA-02


County Democrats Republicans no-party voters
Appanoose 2,714 2,926 3,014
Cedar 3,128 3,646 4,445
Clarke 1,632 1,811 2,176
Clinton 10,894 7,361 12,688
Davis 1,952 1,522 1,380
Decatur 1,721 1,784 1,759
Des Moines 11,380 6,104 8,026
Henry 2,966 5,409 4,808
Jasper 8,695 7,207 7,258
Jefferson 3,190 3,600 3,286
Johnson 36,846 17,756 28,083
Keokuk 2,352 2,331 2,228
Lee 9,958 4,328 7,989
Louisa 1,833 2,511 2,541
Lucas 1,411 2,103 2,020
Mahaska 3,030 5,882 4,714
Marion 5,430 9,052 6,891
Monroe 1,767 1,497 1,438
Muscatine 7,655 8,277 10,233
Scott 33,362 29,816 43,073
Van Buren 1,082 2,218 1,611
Wapello 9,481 5,279 6,677
Washington 2,924 5,808 4,708
Wayne 1,011 1,362 1,100
 
total 166,414 139,590 172,146

IA-03


County Democrats Republicans no-party voters
Adair 1,124 2,023 1,943
Adams 696 958 1,127
Cass 1,613 4,902 3,005
Dallas 9,677 15,704 15,996
Fremont 1,334 2,194 1,824
Guthrie 2,028 2,744 2,763
Madison 3,018 3,974 3,702
Mills 1,900 4,764 3,026
Montgomery 1,063 3,947 1,869
Page 1,632 4,410 3,495
Polk 97,686 80,704 72,936
Pottawattamie 15,711 20,941 17,289
Ringgold 887 1,483 704
Taylor 794 1,990 1,313
Union 1,738 2,840 2,869
Warren 9,714 10,488 10,017
 
total 150,615 164,066 143,878

IA-04


County Democrats Republicans no-party voters
Audubon 1,322 1,608 1,355
Boone 5,276 5,577 6,425
Buena Vista 2,804 3,925 4,429
Butler 1,734 4,579 3,129
Calhoun 1,429 2,371 2,668
Carroll 4,197 4,010 6,210
Cerro Gordo 9,602 8,091 12,387
Cherokee 2,035 3,176 3,205
Chickasaw 2,988 2,210 3,613
Clay 2,626 4,566 4,321
Crawford 2,647 3,114 3,372
Dickinson 2,656 5,286 4,601
Emmet 2,225 1,702 3,103
Floyd 3,084 2,724 4,507
Franklin 1,242 3,107 2,242
Greene 2,044 2,142 2,241
Grundy 1,463 4,098 2,948
Hamilton 2,766 3,594 3,661
Hancock 1,589 3,302 2,897
Hardin 2,655 4,653 3,838
Harrison 2,487 3,498 2,417
Humboldt 1,371 2,496 2,429
Ida 963 2,168 1,891
Kossuth 3,514 3,415 4,125
Lyon 904 5,392 1,660
Monona 2,111 1,901 2,389
O’Brien 1,358 5,258 2,729
Osceola 515 2,604 1,062
Palo Alto 2,434 1,570 2,126
Plymouth 3,329 7,898 5,705
Pocahontas 1,125 1,734 2,179
Sac 1,365 3,094 2,541
Shelby 2,068 3,734 2,856
Sioux 1,576 14,263 3,509
Story 15,267 15,053 18,311
Webster 8,756 6,841 8,348
Winnebago 1,561 3,042 2,573
Woodbury 18,255 18,858 18,653
Wright 1,914 3,514 2,582
 
total 127,257 180,168 169,237
  • kind of a no-brainer

    largest % increase in Dem registration (Aug-Sept):

    1. Story

    2. Poweshiek

    3. Johnson

    largest % increase in NP registration:

    1. Story

    2. Shelby

    3. Johnson

    Student registration + a stealth move in Shelby which added 88 NP to 2768 registered. As it turns out, Shelby also suffered the largest % decrease in GOP registration, so …

    The GOP “gains” came from:

    1. Johnson

    2. Story

    3. Dallas

    Some student registration & prolly some eligible high schoolers in a GOP stronghold.

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