To enter Bleeding Heartland’s election prediction contest, post your guesses as comments in this thread before 7 am on November 6. Predictions submitted by e-mail will not be considered. It’s ok to change your mind, as long as you post your revised predictions as an additional comment in this thread before the deadline.
No money’s at stake here, just bragging rights like those enjoyed by Bleeding Heartland users ModerateIADem (twice), American007, Johannes, and tietack. This isn’t “The Price is Right”; the winning answers will be closest to the final results, whether they were a little high or low. Even if you have no idea, please try to take a guess on every question.
Minor-party or independent candidates are on the ballot for some races, so the percentages of the vote for Democratic and Republican nominees need not add up to 100. You can view the complete list of candidates for federal and state offices in Iowa here (pdf).
Good luck, and remember: you can’t win if you don’t play.
1. How many Iowans will cast ballots in the 2012 general election? For reference, 1,528,715 Iowans voted in the 2008 general election, and 1,497,741 Iowans voted in the 2004 general election.
2. How many electoral votes will Barack Obama and Mitt Romney win? (538 total)
3. What percentage of the national popular vote will Barack Obama and Mitt Romney receive?
4. What percentage of the vote will Obama and Romney win in Iowa?
5. What percentage of the vote will Bruce Braley and Ben Lange receive in Iowa’s first Congressional district?
6. What percentage of the vote will Dave Loebsack and John Archer receive in IA-02?
7. What percentage of the vote will Leonard Boswell and Tom Latham receive in IA-03?
8. What percentage of the vote will Steve King and Christie Vilsack receive in IA-04?
9. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans win in the Iowa House next Tuesday? Currently there are 60 Republicans and 40 Democrats.
10. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans win in the Iowa Senate next Tuesday? Currently there are 26 Democrats and 24 Republicans, but your answer should add up to 49, because Senate district 22 will not be decided until a December 11 special election.
11. Which Congressional race in Iowa will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
12. Which Iowa House or Senate race will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
13. What percentage of yes and no retention votes will Iowa Supreme Court Justice David Wiggins receive? For reference, in 2010 the “no” share of the vote was 55 percent for Chief Justice Marsha Ternus, 54.4 percent for Justice Michael Streit, and 54.2 percent for Justice David Baker.
14. Nationally, which U.S. Senate race will be decided by the narrowest margin (in terms of percentage of the vote difference, not raw votes)?
15. In the presidential race, which state will be decided by the narrowest margin (again, in terms of percentage of the vote)?
16. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. House starting January 2013? (435 total) Currently there are 240 Republicans, 190 Democrats, and five vacancies.
17. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. Senate starting January 2013? (100 total) For this question, I am counting independents who caucus with Democrats as Democrats. Currently there are 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans.
18. Tie-breaker question: How many of Iowa’s 99 counties will Obama and Romney carry? In 2008, McCain carried 46 counties, Obama 53 (view map here). The latest voter registration totals for all 99 counties are here.