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Weekend open thread: Digesting the Iowa map

by: desmoinesdem

Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 10:22:45 AM CDT

Iowa legislators from both parties seem ready to approve the redistricting plan offered by the Legislative Services Agency on Thursday. Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, whose Council Bluffs district barely changed, encouraged colleagues  to take a "cold, hard look" at the map, since the second offering "may not be as good." Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley's weekly e-mail blast spoke favorably about the redistricting process. Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer, who was thrown into House district 8 with two other Republican representatives, said, "The next map might be something less desirable." The Associated Press reported that "one of the potential rivals is retiring and the other laying plans to run for the senate." House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy described the map as a "a wash, with good and bad on both sides."

Two factors are pushing lawmakers to accept the plan. First,

[Democratic legislative staffer Ron] Parker noted that 27 House members and 14 senators are paired under the proposed map. He says that's about half the number tossed together the last two times the Legislature approved districts.

In 1991, 50 House members and 20 senators were paired and those numbers were 39 and 25 when lawmakers drew new lines in 2001.  

Parker said Friday that many Republicans and Democrats assume there could be even more pairings if lawmakers reject the initial proposed map.  

Second, Bleeding Heartland user ragbrai08 pointed out Thursday that the extremely low population variance between the Congressional districts leaves both parties "in the dark for the second map" and without credible ways to assert that the plan violates Iowa Code:

The LSA has taken away the option of playing the odds. There are maps with smaller pop dev, but with questionable compactness. The LSA can choose to go with a higher pop dev based on this. How do you play it? Do they go down or up? And which pattern is most likely to be chosen?

The difference between this and 2001 is that the first map last time had multiple credible options with lower pop devs. Based on pattern analysis, you could go and plead what you considered important based on arguments fitted to the Iowa Code.

If yesterday had been like 2001, the first map would have had a mean deviation of 155 persons. Instead they went low, real low. [...]

If the LSA had put out a first map with a mean pop dev comparable to 2001 (after adjusting for larger districts), you would have had the opportunity to argue about what represents IA better: regionalized vs balanced, for example. By offering up a map right on the edge, that has largely been rendered moot.

I'm assuming rational actors are involved. You always have to ask the question, what are the odds of my situation improving? If you can't answer that (and it is very difficult here), bird in the hand applies.

Assuming this plan becomes law, some incumbents will have hard choices to make. John Deeth collected news here about legislators making arrangements to avoid elections against each other. My current State Senator Pat Ward is ready to move to a different part of the Des Moines suburbs to run in the new Senate district 22 instead of against Democratic Senator Matt McCoy in the new district 21. She may have competition in the Republican primary, because former WHO talk radio personality Steve Deace lives in what would be district 22 and sounds interested. Shortly after leaving WHO this year, Deace indicated that he would consider running for the Iowa Senate.

In other Iowa news, today is the second anniversary of the Iowa Supreme Court's Varnum v Brien ruling, which struck down the state's Defense of Marriage Act. Gronstal blocked a vote on a constitutional amendment to overturn that ruling in the state Senate this year and will do so next year too. If Republicans gain control of the upper chamber in the 2012 elections, they would need to pass a marriage amendment in the legislature in 2013, hold both chambers in 2014, and pass the amendment again in 2015 in order to get the measure on a statewide ballot in November 2016.

The most depressing news I've seen this weekend relates to the ongoing disaster in Japan. The death toll from last month's earthquake and tsunami could exceed 16,000.  Authorities don't have a solid plan for disposing of radioactive water used to cool reactors and spent fuel pools at Japan's Fukushima nuclear facility. Now some of the radioactive water is leaking into the ocean, and the early attempts to stop the leaking have failed.

This is an open thread. What's on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers?

desmoinesdem :: Weekend open thread: Digesting the Iowa map
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Ourth Should Run Again for Iowa House (4.00 / 2)
I a very active member of the Warren County Democratic Central Committee, and have worked on quite a few local campaigns.  In the November 2010 elections, I supported and volunteered for Scott Ourth in his race for House District 74, and I have first-hand knowledge that Ourth worked very hard against Glen Massie. Scott worked the phones and raised a record amount of money for a new candidate running for Iowa House.  He knocked every door in his district, some more than once.  He is an effective communicator, and an active and thoughtful listener. He has a message that resonates with many in my district, a great number of whom are encouraging Scott to run again.  
Scott supports our public schools because he cares about our children.  He is focused on job creation because he cares about middle-class families (who he thinks are getting the short end of the stick right now).  He cares about our veterans, our seniors, and economically or physically challenged individuals.  
I have talked to Scott recently, and I am very happy to know that he is seriously thinking of running again (after redestricting his home is in HD 26). Mark Smith, the candidate recruiter for the Iowa House Democrats, has made it clear that he also supports another run by Scott.  Many others in my community have expressed to me their support of another try by Scott, and have indicated their willingness to support him financially and with volunteer time.    

I heard the same rumor (4.00 / 2)
I checked with Ourth this weekend, and he confirmed what you have written--he is seriously considering another race for the Iowa House, and Mark Smith has encouraged him to challenge Glen Massie. I would hope that a Democratic candidate could win this district--turnout may be more favorable in a presidential election year.

Here's what House district 26 will look like if the first redistricting plan is approved. Indianola and most of the north half of Warren County (except for Norwalk and Cumming), plus some of southeastern Warren County.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
Massie (0.00 / 0)
Massie's a guy who stirs the pot.  I could see the district electing a quiet and yet respectable conservative.  Massie is a whole different ball game.  I hope Scott runs and wins though.  

[ Parent ]
agreed (4.00 / 1)
I worked on Scott's race down there in Indianola as well, and I hope the rumors about another run are true! He is far and away our best shot at picking up that seat. He spent hundreds of hours knocking doors throughout the district, and raised an impressive amount of money (I believe over 75k). In order to give Massie a serious challenge, we need a candidate who is willing to put in the hard work, and who has the know-how to run a smart, disciplined campaign. Scott Ourth is that candidate.

I hope folks in the new 26th district (if this map passes) throw their support behind Ourth if he declares. I can't wait to knock doors down in Indianola for him again!  

[ Parent ]
Sans Norwalk (0.00 / 0)
Getting Norwalk and Cumming out of the district is a huge plus if you look at the precinct registration/voting numbers.  This should be a top pick up opportunity regardless of who runs.  I completely agree that he is/was a fantastic candidate and should certainly give it another go.  It also helps that Massie is a wingnut and that won't wear well.  

haven't heard much lately (4.00 / 1)
about those articles of impeachment Massie, Tom Shaw and Kim Pearson were supposedly drawing up against four Iowa Supreme Court justices. Maybe even Massie realizes he needs to tone it down.  

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
should also mention (0.00 / 0)
that one of the Supreme Court justices, Brent Appel, lives in this House district. He is married to former State Senator Staci Appel, who lost her re-election bid to Kent Sorenson in 2010.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
RE: Ourth (0.00 / 0)
I worked with Scott at the capitol and he's been a solid supporter of conservation/environmental programs as a volunteer and donor.  Good guy, I'd encourage him to run as well.  I supported him in '10 and I'd do it again in a heartbeat.

Agreed though, a lot of it does depend on the maps.  Losing Norwalk is a bonus to that district.

Here is another bonus (0.00 / 0)
Boswell running in Pot County (as opposed to King getting a pass again) would be a boon to Gronstal as Boswell's early vote program and GOTV operation would work Council Bluffs hard and increase turnout among the significant number of low-turnout, working class Dems out there.  I imagine that has crossed Gronstal's mind and could explain his quick acceptance.


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