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Election prediction contest results thread

by: desmoinesdem

Sat Jun 09, 2012 at 19:11:01 PM CDT


No public polls were released about any of the races featured in this year's Iowa primary election prediction contest.  I suspect that's why few Bleeding Heartland users took the plunge. But we do have a winner, and in fact it's a repeat Iowa election prediction contest winner.  
desmoinesdem :: Election prediction contest results thread
Preliminary results for federal, state Senate, and state House primary elections are on the Iowa Secretary of State's website. Several readers posted predictions about some races, but besides me, only ModerateIADem made a public guess on all 12 questions. Confident from having won the 2010 Iowa primary election prediction contest, perhaps? If so, it was for good reason.

1. What percentages of the vote will Ben Lange and Rod Blum receive in the Republican primary to represent Iowa's first Congressional district? Result: Lange 53.09 percent, Blum 46.39 percent. Most observers of this race thought Lange would cruise, but ModerateIADem was right on the money with a guess of Lange 53, Blum 47.

2. What percentages of the vote will John Archer and Dan Dolan receive in the Republican primary to represent Iowa's second Congressional district? Result: Archer 60.48 percent, Dolan 39.31 percent. ModerateIADem correctly predicted that Archer would win this primary. I had Dolan winning.

3. What percentages of the vote will incumbent Representative Dave Loebsack and State Senator Joe Seng receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa's second Congressional district? Result: Loebsack 81.52 percent, Seng 18.30 percent. ModerateIADem and I both predicted Loebsack would win big; I was a bit closer to the final margin with Loebsack 79, Seng 21.

4. What percentages of the vote will State Senator Pat Ward and Jeff Mullen receive in the Republican primary to represent Iowa Senate district 22? Result: Ward 58.00 percent, Mullen 41.84 percent. I had Ward winning 55-45, but ModerateIADem was closer to the mark with Ward 62, Mullen 38.

5. What percentages of the vote will former State Senator Larry McKibben and Jane Jech receive in the Republican primary to represent Iowa Senate district 36? This result was a shocker for me: Jech 58.77 percent, McKibben 41.11 percent. ModerateIADem and I both had McKibben winning big.

6. What percentages of the vote will incumbent State Senators Jim Hahn and Shawn Hamerlinck receive in the Republican primary to represent Iowa Senate district 46? Result: Hamerlinck 60.84 percent, Hahn 39.04 percent. ModerateIADem and I both guessed Hamerlinck would win this one by 55 percent to 45 percent.

7. What percentages of the vote will State Representatives Pat Grassley and Annette Sweeney receive in the Republican primary to represent Iowa House district 50? Result: not even close, Grassley 61.21 percent, Sweeney 38.76 percent. I went with Sweeney. ModerateIADem was pretty close with a guess of Grassley 54, Sweeney 46. Bleeding Heartland users albert and rockm also predicted correctly that Grassley would win but didn't specify his vote share.

8.  What percentages of the vote will State Representative Ron Jorgensen and challenger Matthew Ung receive in the Republican primary to represent Iowa House district 6? Result: Jorgensen 55.70 percent, Ung 44.26 percent. I called this one for Jorgensen 60-40; ModerateIADem had Ung winning.

9.  What percentages of the vote will Donna Amandus, Bob Morawitz, and Rich Taylor receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa Senate district 42? Result: Taylor 49.77 percent, Amandus 35.16 percent, Morawitz 14.65 percent. ModerateIADem and I both predicted Taylor would win, but ModerateIADem was much closer to the correct margin with a guess of Taylor 47, Amandus 40, and Morawitz 13.

10. What percentages of the vote will David Johnson and Dick Schwab receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa House district 73? Result: Schwab 57.24 percent, Johnson 42.76 percent. We both called this for Schwab; I was on the low side (55-45), while ModerateIADem had Schwab winning 61-39.

11. What percentages of the vote will Marti Anderson, Cara Kennedy-Ode, and William Rock receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa House district 36? Result: Anderson 50.43 percent, Kennedy-Ode 46.16 percent, Rock 3.41 percent. We both called this for Anderson, but ModerateIADem was closer with a guess of Anderson 52, Kennedy-Ode 40, Rock 8.

12. Tie-breaker question: Not counting the Grassley-Sweeney race between two House incumbents, how many of the eleven Iowa House Republicans facing primary challengers will lose on June 5? Answer: just one, House Majority Whip Erik Helland. ModerateIADem was closer by guessing two, while I picked three to lose.

So there you have it. ModerateIADem wins this year's primary election prediction contest, as happened in June 2010. Will there be a three-peat in 2014?  

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Fun as always (4.00 / 1)
I'm indifferent about getting the SD 42 race right.  I was at Donna's election night celebration (with two people who didn't vote).  I guess that proves once again we can't get people in Keokuk out to the polls any more.  

I'm satisfied with Rich and he is closer to me ideologically than Bob Morawitz is, but I like Bob a lot, he's a true believer.

I saw that McCoy and Carley won their races.  I don't feel good about Joe Riding's chances, but if Scott Ourth can't win this time then the voters there messed up again.  

Thank you for having the contest.  


McCoy is way out there (4.00 / 1)
I feel that Ruth Randleman would have been a stronger general election candidate in HD-26. Then again, the far-right activists (Sorenson/Massie types) will be out in force volunteering for McCoy.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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