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Updated voter registration numbers in Iowa's Congressional districts

by: desmoinesdem

Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 08:40:00 AM CDT


The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State's office (pdf) show 666,279 active no-party voters statewide, 620,868 active Republicans, and 602,636 active Democrats. That represents slightly larger gains for Democrats than Republicans since the beginning of August. After the jump I've posted the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district.

Any comments about the 2012 elections in Iowa are welcome in this thread.

The Rothenberg Political Report's latest rankings of competitive House districts does not include the IA-01 race between incumbent Bruce Braley and challenger Ben Lange. Rothenberg considers the IA-02 contest between incumbent Dave Loebsack and challenger John Archer to be "Democrat favored." He puts the the "Toss-up/tilt Republican" label on both the IA-03 clash of incumbents Leonard Boswell and Tom Latham and the IA-04 race between incumbent Steve King and challenger Christie Vilsack. Although I haven't seen internal polling from any of the Congressional races, I doubt that Vilsack has as good a chance of winning as Boswell. True, Boswell can't keep pace with Latham's fundraising. But he is an incumbent who's represented most of the counties in IA-03 before and has outperformed the top of the Democratic ticket in previous presidential elections. He also faces a much smaller GOP voter registration advantage in his district, as you can see below.

desmoinesdem :: Updated voter registration numbers in Iowa's Congressional districts
Active voter registration numbers as of September 2012

IA-01

County Democrats Republicans no-party voters
Allamakee2,1884,3383,075
Benton4,7075,0937,289
Black Hawk26,85420,00828,713
Bremer3,6605,0146,944
Buchanan3,9363,2146,175
Clayton3,3183,2054,537
Delaware2,5633,8544,644
Dubuque24,75014,60721,837
Fayette3,6774,1213,942
Howard1,9511,4822,516
Iowa2,7953,7144,716
Jackson5,9162,6935,511
Jones3,5213,6815,658
Linn47,65338,11748,343
Marshall7,4167,9629,077
Mitchell1,8202,5572,646
Poweshiek3,5163,7424,645
Tama3,2143,4434,208
Winnishiek3,3104,3984,568
Worth1,5851,8011,974
 
total158,350137,044181,018

IA-02

County Democrats Republicans no-party voters
Appanoose2,7142,9263,014
Cedar3,1283,6464,445
Clarke1,6321,8112,176
Clinton10,8947,36112,688
Davis1,9521,5221,380
Decatur1,7211,7841,759
Des Moines11,3806,1048,026
Henry2,9665,4094,808
Jasper8,6957,2077,258
Jefferson3,1903,6003,286
Johnson36,84617,75628,083
Keokuk2,3522,3312,228
Lee9,9584,3287,989
Louisa1,8332,5112,541
Lucas1,4112,1032,020
Mahaska3,0305,8824,714
Marion5,4309,0526,891
Monroe1,7671,4971,438
Muscatine7,6558,27710,233
Scott33,36229,81643,073
Van Buren1,0822,2181,611
Wapello9,4815,2796,677
Washington2,9245,8084,708
Wayne1,0111,3621,100
 
total166,414139,590172,146

IA-03

County Democrats Republicans no-party voters
Adair1,1242,0231,943
Adams6969581,127
Cass1,6134,9023,005
Dallas9,67715,70415,996
Fremont1,3342,1941,824
Guthrie2,0282,7442,763
Madison3,0183,9743,702
Mills1,9004,7643,026
Montgomery1,0633,9471,869
Page1,6324,4103,495
Polk97,68680,70472,936
Pottawattamie15,71120,94117,289
Ringgold8871,483704
Taylor7941,9901,313
Union1,7382,8402,869
Warren9,71410,48810,017
 
total150,615164,066143,878

IA-04

County Democrats Republicans no-party voters
Audubon1,3221,6081,355
Boone5,2765,5776,425
Buena Vista2,8043,9254,429
Butler1,7344,5793,129
Calhoun1,4292,3712,668
Carroll4,1974,0106,210
Cerro Gordo9,6028,09112,387
Cherokee2,0353,1763,205
Chickasaw2,9882,2103,613
Clay2,6264,5664,321
Crawford2,6473,1143,372
Dickinson2,6565,2864,601
Emmet2,2251,7023,103
Floyd3,0842,7244,507
Franklin1,2423,1072,242
Greene2,0442,1422,241
Grundy1,4634,0982,948
Hamilton2,7663,5943,661
Hancock1,5893,3022,897
Hardin2,6554,6533,838
Harrison2,4873,4982,417
Humboldt1,3712,4962,429
Ida9632,1681,891
Kossuth3,5143,4154,125
Lyon9045,3921,660
Monona2,1111,9012,389
O'Brien1,3585,2582,729
Osceola5152,6041,062
Palo Alto2,4341,5702,126
Plymouth3,3297,8985,705
Pocahontas1,1251,7342,179
Sac1,3653,0942,541
Shelby2,0683,7342,856
Sioux1,57614,2633,509
Story15,26715,05318,311
Webster8,7566,8418,348
Winnebago1,5613,0422,573
Woodbury18,25518,85818,653
Wright1,9143,5142,582
 
total127,257180,168169,237

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kind of a no-brainer (0.00 / 0)
largest % increase in Dem registration (Aug-Sept):

1. Story
2. Poweshiek
3. Johnson

largest % increase in NP registration:

1. Story
2. Shelby
3. Johnson

Student registration + a stealth move in Shelby which added 88 NP to 2768 registered. As it turns out, Shelby also suffered the largest % decrease in GOP registration, so ...

The GOP "gains" came from:

1. Johnson
2. Story
3. Dallas

Some student registration & prolly some eligible high schoolers in a GOP stronghold.


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