Updated voter registration numbers in Iowa's Congressional districts

by: desmoinesdem

Wed Sep 05, 2012 at 08:40:00 AM CDT

Any comments about the 2012 elections in Iowa are welcome in this thread.

The Rothenberg Political Report's latest rankings of competitive House districts does not include the IA-01 race between incumbent Bruce Braley and challenger Ben Lange. Rothenberg considers the IA-02 contest between incumbent Dave Loebsack and challenger John Archer to be "Democrat favored." He puts the the "Toss-up/tilt Republican" label on both the IA-03 clash of incumbents Leonard Boswell and Tom Latham and the IA-04 race between incumbent Steve King and challenger Christie Vilsack. Although I haven't seen internal polling from any of the Congressional races, I doubt that Vilsack has as good a chance of winning as Boswell. True, Boswell can't keep pace with Latham's fundraising. But he is an incumbent who's represented most of the counties in IA-03 before and has outperformed the top of the Democratic ticket in previous presidential elections. He also faces a much smaller GOP voter registration advantage in his district, as you can see below.

IA-01

County	Democrats	Republicans	no-party voters
Allamakee	2,188	4,338	3,075
Benton	4,707	5,093	7,289
Black Hawk	26,854	20,008	28,713
Bremer	3,660	5,014	6,944
Buchanan	3,936	3,214	6,175
Clayton	3,318	3,205	4,537
Delaware	2,563	3,854	4,644
Dubuque	24,750	14,607	21,837
Fayette	3,677	4,121	3,942
Howard	1,951	1,482	2,516
Iowa	2,795	3,714	4,716
Jackson	5,916	2,693	5,511
Jones	3,521	3,681	5,658
Linn	47,653	38,117	48,343
Marshall	7,416	7,962	9,077
Mitchell	1,820	2,557	2,646
Poweshiek	3,516	3,742	4,645
Tama	3,214	3,443	4,208
Winnishiek	3,310	4,398	4,568
Worth	1,585	1,801	1,974
total	158,350	137,044	181,018

IA-02

County	Democrats	Republicans	no-party voters
Appanoose	2,714	2,926	3,014
Cedar	3,128	3,646	4,445
Clarke	1,632	1,811	2,176
Clinton	10,894	7,361	12,688
Davis	1,952	1,522	1,380
Decatur	1,721	1,784	1,759
Des Moines	11,380	6,104	8,026
Henry	2,966	5,409	4,808
Jasper	8,695	7,207	7,258
Jefferson	3,190	3,600	3,286
Johnson	36,846	17,756	28,083
Keokuk	2,352	2,331	2,228
Lee	9,958	4,328	7,989
Louisa	1,833	2,511	2,541
Lucas	1,411	2,103	2,020
Mahaska	3,030	5,882	4,714
Marion	5,430	9,052	6,891
Monroe	1,767	1,497	1,438
Muscatine	7,655	8,277	10,233
Scott	33,362	29,816	43,073
Van Buren	1,082	2,218	1,611
Wapello	9,481	5,279	6,677
Washington	2,924	5,808	4,708
Wayne	1,011	1,362	1,100
total	166,414	139,590	172,146

IA-03

County	Democrats	Republicans	no-party voters
Adair	1,124	2,023	1,943
Adams	696	958	1,127
Cass	1,613	4,902	3,005
Dallas	9,677	15,704	15,996
Fremont	1,334	2,194	1,824
Guthrie	2,028	2,744	2,763
Madison	3,018	3,974	3,702
Mills	1,900	4,764	3,026
Montgomery	1,063	3,947	1,869
Page	1,632	4,410	3,495
Polk	97,686	80,704	72,936
Pottawattamie	15,711	20,941	17,289
Ringgold	887	1,483	704
Taylor	794	1,990	1,313
Union	1,738	2,840	2,869
Warren	9,714	10,488	10,017
total	150,615	164,066	143,878

IA-04

County	Democrats	Republicans	no-party voters
Audubon	1,322	1,608	1,355
Boone	5,276	5,577	6,425
Buena Vista	2,804	3,925	4,429
Butler	1,734	4,579	3,129
Calhoun	1,429	2,371	2,668
Carroll	4,197	4,010	6,210
Cerro Gordo	9,602	8,091	12,387
Cherokee	2,035	3,176	3,205
Chickasaw	2,988	2,210	3,613
Clay	2,626	4,566	4,321
Crawford	2,647	3,114	3,372
Dickinson	2,656	5,286	4,601
Emmet	2,225	1,702	3,103
Floyd	3,084	2,724	4,507
Franklin	1,242	3,107	2,242
Greene	2,044	2,142	2,241
Grundy	1,463	4,098	2,948
Hamilton	2,766	3,594	3,661
Hancock	1,589	3,302	2,897
Hardin	2,655	4,653	3,838
Harrison	2,487	3,498	2,417
Humboldt	1,371	2,496	2,429
Ida	963	2,168	1,891
Kossuth	3,514	3,415	4,125
Lyon	904	5,392	1,660
Monona	2,111	1,901	2,389
O'Brien	1,358	5,258	2,729
Osceola	515	2,604	1,062
Palo Alto	2,434	1,570	2,126
Plymouth	3,329	7,898	5,705
Pocahontas	1,125	1,734	2,179
Sac	1,365	3,094	2,541
Shelby	2,068	3,734	2,856
Sioux	1,576	14,263	3,509
Story	15,267	15,053	18,311
Webster	8,756	6,841	8,348
Winnebago	1,561	3,042	2,573
Woodbury	18,255	18,858	18,653
Wright	1,914	3,514	2,582
total	127,257	180,168	169,237