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Most surprising election results discussion thread

by: desmoinesdem

Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 15:00:00 PM CST


What surprised you most about the 2012 general election results? Please share your thoughts in this thread. My top five surprises are below.
desmoinesdem :: Most surprising election results discussion thread
1. Democratic gains in the U.S. Senate.

Six months ago I wouldn't have believed Democrats could even hold their majority, let alone expand it.

Democratic candidates won most of the competitive races by larger-than expected margins. Only Heidi Heitkamp barely squeaked by in North Dakota (a state Mitt Romney won by 59 percent to 39 percent).

2. Huge youth voter turnout.

Link:

The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) - the preeminent youth research organization at Tufts University - this morning released an exclusive turnout estimate showing that 22-23 million young Americans (ages 18-29), or at least 49%, voted in Tuesday's presidential election, according to national exit polls, demographic data, and current counts of votes cast.

In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia, if Romney had won half the youth vote, or if young people had stayed home all together, he would have won those key battleground states.  A switch of those 80 electoral votes would have also changed the presidency, electing Romney as president.  (More on that analysis here.) Young people represented 19% of the voters in yesterday's election, with President Obama winning the majority of those votes over Governor Romney by 60% to 37%, according to the early released NEP.

"Confounding almost all predictions, the youth vote held up in 2012 and yet again was the deciding factor in determining which candidate was elected President of the United States," said CIRCLE director Peter Levine. "Young people are energized and committed voters. Youth turnout of around 50% is the 'new normal' for presidential elections. Considering that there are 46 million people between 18 and 29, this level of turnout makes them an essential political bloc. Right now, they form a key part of the Democrats' national coalition. Republicans must find a way to compete for their votes."

According to CIRCLE's exclusive estimate, youth voter turnout was at least 49.3%, based on data from about 97% of precincts that have fully reported their votes as of Wednesday morning. Youth turnout may reach 51% when the remaining 3% of precincts report. The minimum CIRCLE estimated at the same point in time in 2008 was 48.3%, but our 2008 estimate rose to 52% as more precincts reported. That means that 2004, 2008, and 2012 have been three strong elections in a row  for youth, with turnout in the vicinity of 50% each time, compared to just 37% in 1996 and 41% in 2000.

3. President Barack Obama winning the Asian vote by 50 points.

I expected to see record margins for Obama among Latino voters, but didn't see this coming.

Exit polls show that 73% of Asian Americans backed Obama, an 11-point increase since 2008.  Asian Americans came out in such force for Obama that they topped Latinos as his second-most supportive ethnic group, behind African Americans. [...]

While Asians accounted for just 3% of the electorate - up from 2% in 2008 - their overwhelming support made them a key component of the Obama coalition, especially in swing states like Virginia, Florida and Colorado.

4. Democratic gains in state legislatures.

I expected Obama to be re-elected, but with minimal coat-tails. However, the state legislative elections went very well for Democrats as a whole.

Just weeks before the election, national Republicans expressed confidence in winning multiple chambers and even expressed certainty that some heavily-contested chambers would remain under Republican control. Instead, Democrats won new majorities in the Colorado House, Maine House, Maine Senate, Minnesota House, Minnesota Senate, New Hampshire House, New York Senate and Oregon House; gained super-majorities in the California Assembly, California Senate, Illinois House and Illinois Senate; and gained seats in 40 chambers that were up for election on Tuesday.

Here's a longer list of the key Democratic takeovers and defends. Iowa Republicans had sounded very confident about winning the state Senate, but Democrats held on to 26 seats and were just a few dozen votes from electing John Beard to Senate district 28 in the northeast corner of the state.

5. The margin for retaining Iowa Supreme Court Justice David Wiggins.

Based on opinion polls, I thought that if Wiggins were retained, he would barely make it through. Instead, Iowans voted yes by a 9-point margin, and yes votes were the majority in 36 counties.  

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Daniel Lundby (4.00 / 2)
I have been pleasantly surprised that there has not been an outcry about his election.  Perhaps we are all going to behave as adults!

in the Iowa races (4.00 / 1)
that was the biggest surprise, agree with you there. Also pleasantly surprised by the margins for D House candidates in Sioux City. Chris Hall by more than 700 votes, David Dawson by more than 2,000.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
Iowa Congressional margins (4.00 / 2)
None of the races were as close as the hype.

Also: surprised at Joe Judge's loss and Brian Moore's survival.


Joe Judge didn't lose by much (0.00 / 0)
That's a race where a little more money for positive ads might have helped.

We need someone who will work harder than Tom Schueller in Brian Moore's district. That should be a Democratic seat.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.


[ Parent ]
The OFA ground game (4.00 / 1)
I knew there would be a strong ground game, but the strength, organization,  sophistication,and discipline of the effort was amazing.  Getting a large number of early votes left a smaller universe for GOTV. Then techniques used with sporadic or reluctant voters were based on research, using multiple quality one-on-one conversations, preferably at the door rather than by phone.

In 2008, the Obama campaign had a campaign office in Carroll with one out-of-state staff member. This year there was a field organizer from S. Dakota and an assistant FO from California. During GOTV, they brought in a canvass captain from Kansas along with another KS volunteer. These were highly competent individuals. They also recruited lots of local volunteers, many more than '08.


OFA - Boone County (4.00 / 1)
It was a decent ground game here but had some major holes that appeared on Election night.

Obama and Vilsack carried the county but it did not help down ticket. All three statehouse races lost, and for the first time in 16 years the GOP was able to get a county supervisor seat. Got to do better in 2014 and have more local control in the future.


The OFA plan was to re-elect the President. (0.00 / 0)
Any down-ticket benefit was gravy. The state house candidates did not coordinate with OFA until GOTV. They did their own canvassing and phone calling. We won one (Dan Muhlbauer, house district 12) and lost one (Mary Bruner, sd 6).

[ Parent ]
Christie Vilsack and Mary Jo Wilhelm (4.00 / 1)
closely coordinated in Floyd County starting months ago. My impression is that is was very effective. The Senate election effort was driving it, funding a field coordinator and Wilhelm's campaign manager. Maybe Kevin McCarthy didn't have the kind of funds Gronstal did to keep his caucus.

SEIU sent in 20 doorknockers three weekends before the election, to hit every door in Charles City before the Family Leader showed up.


[ Parent ]
Too bad (0.00 / 0)
...the Dems couldn't find the money to support more House candidates.  Susan Judkins in House 43 (Clive, WH and WDM) was an excellent candidate who got killed by full :30 negative ads by Hagenow. That is, the entire :30 spent knocking her without any time promoting Hag.  Last time I looked, she was down 22 votes. If she could've responded with some TV, she probably would've won. Forbes (Urbandale) and Riding (Altoona) took some serious incoming, but were up on TV and won. Heard some Dems say with about three weeks before election day, polling indicated they would win 53 seats.  GOP peeled off some serious cash on TV to keep their majority in the final weeks.  

[ Parent ]
no question (0.00 / 0)
A little money for positive ads promoting Judkins would have won that seat. I think there was a reasonable amount of coordination with the OFA people--the problem was getting out a positive message to counteract the Hagenow ads. I knew when I saw how heavy his ad buy was that he was worried.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
the Senate Majority Fund (0.00 / 0)
had way more resources for field. House Democrats were running everything on a shoestring. I understand why the money went primarily to Senate candidates, but we clearly left a House majority on the table. At least three or four more House races were winnable with a little more money.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
Taylor (4.00 / 2)
I know Henry County is a pretty conservative place, but they shouldn't have spent so much money on Rich Taylor.  He should have been able to raise more money on his own.  

[ Parent ]
MJ (4.00 / 1)
I am so happy MJW beat the Bartz.  That cardboard cutout of her that he would set up at campaign forums was outrageously demeaning. Now he can embark on his music career full time, and tend his fences.

[ Parent ]
This election wasn't about demographics, it was about candy (0.00 / 0)
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