|A few days ago, Hayworth moved the "King Meter" needle at his blog Politically Speaking from 63 percent to a 67 percent likelihood that King will run for the Senate. He explained his reasoning during the March 22 "On Iowa Politics" podcast. Hayworth covers King and politics in northwest Iowa very well, but with all due respect, the basic facts that point toward King staying in IA-04 are unchanged and cannot change.
Namely, King didn't even match Mitt Romney's vote totals in his own Congressional district last November. Romney lost Iowa by about 90,000 votes. King defeated Christie Vilsack by about 30,000 votes in a district where registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by about 50,000. The math doesn't add up for King as a potentially successful statewide candidate. He knows that as well as anyone.
Add to this equation that King just voted for another Paul Ryan budget. He even voted for the more radical Republican Study Committee budget, which calls not only for privatizing Medicare but also for raising the eligibility age for Medicare and Social Security. The study committee budget cuts most non-defense domestic spending to 2008 levels and freezes it there. The plan is so "out there" that 114 House Republicans voted against it, including Iowa's Tom Latham (IA-03). Just 104 House Republicans wanted to go on record supporting the study committee budget. King can get away with votes like this in IA-04 because of its strong GOP lean, but a statewide election would be another story.
King may spend a few more weeks or months telling the media that he is seriously weighing a Senate bid. He needs to do so to prove he hasn't been bullied by Karl Rove and the national GOP establishment. In the end, he will back down, saying his "head, heart and gut" didn't come together for a Senate race.
William Petroski reported for the Des Moines Register today,
He noted that as a construction company owner there were times that he felt everything weighed in favor of him moving forward on a project, but he decided not to proceed.
However, King also told reporters that he recognized that an open U.S. Senate seat comes along only rarely in Iowa, and he would possibly be passing up an opportunity to serve in a place where he could do more good for Iowans than remaining in Congress.
He declined to say when he expects to make a decision on entering the Senate race, but he indicated it will happen relatively soon.
I'll be shocked if King takes on this challenge.
Make your own IA-Sen predictions in this thread.
UPDATE: O.Kay Henderson has more quotes from King this morning.
Republican Congressman Steve King has paid for new public opinion polls in Iowa to test his chances in a statewide race for the U.S. Senate, but King said today he hasn't analyzed the data yet.
"If you live in this state for as long as I have and traveled this state as much as I have, it's hard to be surprised by the polling, I'll say that," King told reporters this morning. [...]
"It's hard to measure political capital," King said. "It comes and goes over a lot of things. It could be issues, current events. It could be speculation and so there's a possibility that that's the case. It's not much of a consideration, but it's a possibility. I wouldn't deny it." [...]
King said there "won't be a better" chance for him to run for the U.S. Senate than in 2014.
"I've never wanted to be the guy who looked back and said: 'Woulda, coulda, shoulda,' either, so that's part of the consideration as well," King told reporters this morning. "This is by far the most positive kind of an opportunity for a senate seat that I'm likely to ever see or was likely to see."