[Bleeding Heartland Logo]

About
Bleeding Heartland is a community blog about Iowa politics: campaigns and elections, state government, social and environmental issues. Bleeding Heartland also weighs in on presidential policies and campaigns, federal legislation and what the Iowans in Congress are up to. Join our community, post your thoughts as comments or diaries, help keep our leaders honest and hold them accountable.
Author
- desmoinesdem
Highlights
- Iowa 2012 election coverage
- Who's who in the Iowa House for 2015
- Who's who in the Iowa Senate for 2013
- Iowa wildflowers
2014 Election Coverage
- Absentee ballot numbers
- IA-Sen
- IA-Gov
- IA-01
- IA-02
- IA-03
- IA-04
- Secretary of Agriculture
- Secretary of State
- State Auditor
- Iowa Senate overview
- Iowa House overview
- Senate district 5
- Senate district 7
- Senate district 9
- Senate district 13
- Senate district 15
- Senate district 17
- Senate district 27
- Senate district 29
- Senate district 39
- Senate district 41
- Senate district 47
- Senate district 49
- House district 8
- House district 15
- House district 25
- House district 26
- House district 28
- House district 30
- House district 33 (2013)
- House district 40
- House district 51
- House district 60
- House district 63
- House district 65
- House district 68
- House district 73
- House district 82
- House district 91
- House district 92
- House district 95
- House district 99
Search




Advanced Search


Paid Advertising


Bleeding Heartland
It's what plants crave.

IA-Gov: Good news and bad news for Branstad in new Quinnipiac poll

by: desmoinesdem

Thu May 23, 2013 at 10:25:00 AM CDT


A new statewide poll by Quinnipiac University shows Governor Terry Branstad's approval rating comfortably in positive territory, but Iowans split down the middle on whether he should be re-elected.
desmoinesdem :: IA-Gov: Good news and bad news for Branstad in new Quinnipiac poll
Quinnipiac surveyed 1,411 registered Iowa voters between May 15 and 21, producing a margin of error of +/- 2.61 percentage points. The polling memo (or here in pdf format) includes the question wordings and cross-tabs for the part of the survey dealing with the governor's race.

Key findings: 49 percent of respondents approve of Branstad's work as governor, while just 31 percent disapprove.

Democrats disapprove 53 - 28 percent. There is a small gender gap, with men approving 55 - 29 percent, while women give him a thumbs up 44 - 32 percent.

On the other hand, 43 percent of respondents said Branstad doesn't deserve to be re-elected, while 42 percent said he does. From the polling memo:

"Gov. Terry Branstad's job approval numbers are just short of the 50 percent threshold and show a nearly 20 point spread between those who approve and disapprove of his job performance," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The fact that voters are split on the question of whether Gov. Branstad deserves another term in Des Moines is probably a bit disconcerting for the governor. It could be that some voters like what he has done in office but that 20 years in the governor's office is just too long."

[...] Republicans say he deserves four more years 67 - 18 percent, but Democrats say no 66 - 19 percent and independent voters are split by a 43 - 41 percent margin. Men are divided as 48 percent say yes to another Branstad term and 41 percent say no. Women say no 44 - 36 percent.

"The governor's reelection numbers are a contrast with his approval ratings and are worth noting," said Brown. "Yet, the lack of any major Democratic challenger with widespread name recognition and the cash to wage a very expensive campaign probably makes the governor a better reelection bet than the numbers indicate. After all, voters may think he has been governor too long, but that doesn't necessarily mean they will vote to replace him."

This poll won't put Branstad's team into panic mode. He is still in positive territory. About 66 percent of respondents said the economy is good or excellent. He will have plenty of money to boost his image and tarnish his eventual opponent. The final results from the 2013 legislative session will probably help him build a narrative about accomplishing education reform, property tax cuts, and forming an Iowa alternative to Medicaid expansion.

I have questions about the party ID weighting in the survey. Quinnipiac asked respondents, "Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?" The "weighted" results used show 26 percent Republicans, 31 percent Democrats, and 37 percent no-party voters. Iowa Democrats currently have only a small statewide voter registration advantage, and it's way too early to predict which party will have better GOTV in the fall of 2014.

More important, independents are far less likely to participate in midterm elections. So while a plurality of Iowa voters identify as independents, that group will certainly not be the largest group of voters in the 2014 general election.

The statewide statistical report for the 2006 general election shows that among Iowa voters who cast ballots, 384,983 were registered Democrats, 386,382 were Republicans, and just 273,094 were no-party voters.

The statewide statistical report for the 2010 general election shows that among Iowa voters who cast ballots, 395,312 were Democrats, 447,445 were Republicans, and just 281,546 were no-party voters.

Even though Iowa's registered no-party voters were a larger group in 2006 and 2010 than either Democrats or Republicans, their participation rate was very low compared to partisans in the November election.

Any comments about the governor's race are welcome in this thread. I expect State Senator Jack Hatch to announce a gubernatorial campaign soon. He was one of the key negotiators who struck a deal this week over expanding health insurance coverage for low-income Iowans. Last night Hatch voted for Senate File 295, a bill including commercial property tax cuts and other provisions. Another possible Democratic candidate for governor, State Senator Rob Hogg, was one of the six Democrats who voted against that tax bill. I totally agree with Hogg here: "Just because it's a compromise doesn't mean it's a good compromise."

Several people who watch Iowa politics closely have suggested to me in recent days that Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal pushed his caucus hard for a property tax deal with a view toward running for governor himself.

Tags: , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
Tweet This!

culver (0.00 / 0)
Earlier in the year I heard more rumblings about a Culver comeback run, but haven't heard a thing since.  Still any talk of that?  

I haven't heard anything (0.00 / 0)
Seems like the speculation is centering around various state legislators. I'm interested to see if anyone from outside politics like Fred Hubbell will run.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
Culver (0.00 / 0)
Culver doesn't need the aggravation.  It is my view that he governed from the center in a world dominated by people who despised him on both sides.  Run in 2018 if you must, but if I were Chet I'd make as much money as I could and just enjoy family life.

Culver probably entertained running for the U.S. Senate in his mind, but we know he wouldn't be given a fair shake on the blogs.  Primaries are dominated by activists, people that are upset and don't like the direction of the state.  


Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


Iowa Liberal Blogs
- Ames Progressive
- Blog For Iowa
- Essential Estrogen
- Iowa .Gif-t Shop
- Iowa Independent (archive)
- Iowa Policy Points
- Iowans for a Future That Doesn't Suck
- John Deeth
Iowa Conservative Blogs
- Hawkeye GOP
- The Bean Walker
- Caffeinated Thoughts
- The Conservative Reader: Iowa
- The Iowa Republican
Journalists' blogs and research
- 24-Hour Dorman
- Cedar Rapids Gazette government page
- Iowa Fiscal Partnership
- Iowa Policy Project
- Iowa Politics Insider
- Iowa Watchdog.org
- On Brief: Iowa's Appellate Blog
- On the Campaign Trail with Ed Tibbetts
- Newton Independent (Peter Hussmann)
- Politically Speaking
- Price of Politics, etc.
- O.Kay Henderson at Radio Iowa
Iowa Democrats
- Tom Harkin (U.S. Senator)
- Bruce Braley (IA-01)
- Dave Loebsack (IA-02)
- Iowa Democratic Party
- Iowa House Democrats
- Iowa Senate Democrats
Statistics


 
Powered by: SoapBlox