Chris Christie presidential prospects discussion thread

Yesterday’s election results were ideal for New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s presidential ambitions. He won re-election by an enormous 60.5 percent to 38 percent margin.

In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 700,000, Mr. Christie won decisively, making impressive inroads among younger voters, blacks, Hispanics and women – groups that Republicans nationally have struggled to attract.

The governor prevailed despite holding positions contrary to those of many New Jersey voters on several issues, including same-sex marriage, abortion rights and the minimum wage, and despite an economic recovery that has trailed the rest of the country.

Meanwhile, hard-right Republican Ken Cuccinelli lost the Virginia governor’s race to a very unappealing Democrat, Terry McAuliffe.  

Mainstream Republicans and pundits will draw the obvious conclusion: to have a shot at winning the presidency in 2016, the GOP needs someone who doesn’t put social issues front and center, someone who can win in a blue state. Christie will lead the Republican Governors Association next year, giving him more access to big donors across the country. He’s already got a fan club among prominent Iowans on the GOP’s business wing.

My hunch is that despite yesterday’s elections, the GOP base will still demand someone more conservative than Christie in the 2016 presidential primaries. If he does become the nominee, I wouldn’t jump to the conclusion that he could win electoral votes in blue states. His opponent in the governor’s race was third-tier. At least two exit polls taken yesterday indicated he would lose his own state to Hillary Clinton in a presidential contest. He didn’t have any coat-tails, as New Jersey Democrats held all their state Senate seats.

What do you think, Bleeding Heartland readers? UPDATE: Added comments from Bob Vander Plaats below. SECOND UPDATE: Added comments from other social conservatives below.

THURSDAY UPDATE: Added comments from Representative Steve King. He and Christie go way back.  

Alexander Jaffe contacted Bob Vander Plaats for her story in The Hill:

His campaign even drew praise from a frequent critic – Iowa conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats, who has railed against Christie for not fighting a court decision that legalized gay marriage in New Jersey.

“I think people like his boldness, being up-front and confronting issues – in particular that of the unions and education in the state of New Jersey, and for that we applaud him,” he said.

But Vander Plaats warned that making the electability argument could backfire.

“It’s not an asset for him. I think Christie’s going to have to pivot away from a Mitt-Romney, governor-of-a-blue-state type argument because I don’t think Republicans are ready to double down on a losing strategy,” he said.

Steve Deace was quick to discount Christie’s victory:

All you need to know about Christie 2016: Dude wins by 20 points and has no coat-tails in his own state. That can’t be your standard bearer.

Deace also commented:

Chris Christie 2016 (as a GOPer) would lose [worse] than Mitt Romney 2012, and I’ll take all bets to the contrary and laugh all the way to bank.

Moreover,

Maybe the reason being “pro-life” didn’t hurt Chris Christie in blue NY is because everyone there knows he’s not really pro-life. Just sayin

Conservative blogger Shane Vander Hart told the Philadelphia Daily News,

“I’m not really all that impressed,” said Shane Vander Hart, editor of Caffeinated Thoughts, a conservative Christian blog in Iowa. “It sounded like he was going to work hard to defend marriage, and he gave it up. He’ll get a fair hearing in Iowa, but I think with his record, he’s made it difficult for himself if he plans to run for president.”

UPDATE: Though Senator Chuck Grassley does not plan to endorse a presidential candidate before the 2016 Iowa caucuses, his comments during a conference call with Iowa reporters make clear that he believes Republicans need to broaden their base of support.

He was encouraged by the success of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who was re-elected Tuesday. His support from African Americans and Hispanics shows that Republicans can win their backing if they reach out, Grassley said during a conference call with reporters.

“When Republicans are a minority party, you should make every effort you can to appeal to every group you can” without compromising principles, Grassley said. “If you believe in the Republican Party, you got to believe in it enough you want to see your people in office so they can carry out what you believe in.”

Although it’s about two years too early to know who will do well in the 2016 caucuses, Grassley said Christie’s re-election “gives him a big boost.”

How much of a boost is not certain, Grassley added.

“You get out there at the grassroots and try to sell your platform to the people who will vote in the caucuses,” he said, “but you have to be cognizant of the fact that winning the caucuses isn’t going to get you into the White House. You have to appeal to other people.”

THURSDAY UPDATE: Representative Steve King (IA-04) spoke to Newsmax on November 7 about Christie’s prospects.

“I like Chris Christie,” King tells Newsmax. “He is a friend, and if it takes a different style for each governor in each state, that’s part of the laboratory experiment that we have.

“Chris Christie is a strong leader who leads without hesitation. He doesn’t check the political winds or check the polls before he makes a decision. He makes bold, strong, executive decisions.

“And what it takes to be elected in New Jersey, especially by large numbers, which we anticipate, is different than Virginia. It’s different than Iowa, it’s different than it might be in any of the very conservative states.” […]

“He has a lot of personal magnetism. The activists in the Republican Caucus are, generally, more conservative than at least Chris Christie is now considered to be. On the other hand, let’s see what might happen. People are attracted to the dynamism of Chris Christie.”

Asked if he would support Christie if he got the nomination, King responds: “Well, of course. If he won the nomination I’d be enthusiastically in support of Chris Christie, and I’m looking forward to it. If he’s looking to run for president, I’d like to see him in Iowa, and I expect that will be the case.”

During a House Judiciary subcommittee hearing in June 2009, King helped defend Christie (then a former U.S. attorney and a candidate for governor of New Jersey) against tough questioning from Democrats about the practice of deferred prosecution agreements. In July 2011, Christie made time during a brief Iowa visit to headline a big fundraiser for King’s re-election campaign.

Craig Robinson hit on most of Christie’s key vulnerabilities in a Republican primary contest: he has signed some gun control bills (while vetoing others); he supports “DREAM Act” type legislation for New Jersey; he withdrew his hopeless appeal to the New Jersey Supreme Court over same-sex marriage.

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  • new hampshire

    I just don’t see Christie really competing in Iowa which maybe with the track record of the GOP caucuses might mean he’ll win the nomination.  I think he’ll put it all in New Hampshire and just do a few visits to Iowa but nothing intense.  We’ll see plenty of Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, and Rick Santorum.  

    • Christie could win New Hampshire

      New York, New Jersey, but where else in the Republican primaries? I don’t see primary voters going for him anywhere in the south or midwest. I guess he would have to hope that Cruz, Santorum, Paul etc. split the right-wing votes.

      • Christie

        I don’t think Christie can win their nomination either.  I think he tends to get flustered and would call groups that he needs too xenophobic.  He would genuinely try to appeal to Hispanics and Latinos.  The GOP would not be in such a hole if they would have continued the Rove immigration playbook.  

        I think he would make a good candidate for a GE if the GOP and the press let him be himself, but I think we know that CBS and the New York Times would be harder on him as a GOP nominee for President then they have been in New Jersey IMO.  

        • Chris Hayes on MSNBC

          just did a segment on the Christie administration not revealing where a lot of the federal Hurricane Sandy aid went, lots of people still not in homes one year later, etc. In a GOP primary there will be plenty for opposition researchers to dig into.

          • Bully

            And I am still not convinced that his ill-tempered bullying approach of yelling at his own constituents and having tantrums when challenged plays outside of New Jersey, where apparently being rude is a point of pride, and states that are already red where people already think that mob rule is ok.  A couple of episodes in Iowa would likely not go well with our usual Iowa nice (or Minnesota nice or Wisconsin nice).  It a few big tantrums would make it easy to run a “Daisy” ad on him.  

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