Six weeks ago, Bleeding Heartland argued that it was too soon for Iowa Democrats to celebrate a lead in early voting, in part because Republicans had plenty of time to catch up. Yesterday, the number of absentee ballots registered Republicans had returned to county auditors exceeded the number of ballots returned by registered Democrats. A press release by a GOP consultant noted that it’s the first time Iowa Republicans have ever led in early voting.
Democrats still lead in absentee ballots requested, but Republicans also claim that in recent days, they have generated more ballot requests from Iowans who did not vote in the 2010 general election.
I’ve enclosed below the latest data on absentee ballots requested and returned statewide and in each of Iowa’s four Congressional districts. All figures come from the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office. Click here for previous tables going back to September 22.
Absentee ballots requested by Iowa voters as of October 22, 2014
| Congressional district | Democrats | Republicans | no-party voters | Libertarian | Iowa Green | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA-01 | 46,973 | 35,897 | 25,195 | 114 | 54 | 108,233 |
| IA-02 | 49,633 | 35,362 | 24,045 | 123 | 75 | 109,238 |
| IA-03 | 45,672 | 40,885 | 19,413 | 118 | 53 | 106,141 |
| IA-04 | 33,275 | 43,662 | 18,654 | 81 | 36 | 95,708 |
| statewide | 175,553 | 155,806 | 87,307 | 436 | 218 | 419,320 |
Absentee ballots received by Iowa county auditors as of October 22, 2014
| Congressional district | Democrats | Republicans | no-party voters | Libertarian | Iowa Green | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA-01 | 28,312 | 24,707 | 13,070 | 62 | 22 | 66,173 |
| IA-02 | 29,973 | 24,667 | 12,190 | 54 | 45 | 66,929 |
| IA-03 | 26,261 | 26,747 | 9,466 | 53 | 23 | 62,550 |
| IA-04 | 20,438 | 29,226 | 9,721 | 42 | 19 | 59,446 |
| statewide | 104,984 | 105,347 | 44,447 | 211 | 109 | 255,098 |
1 Comment
Liars, damn Liars, and there are statistics! Twain
Here is how I see this latest vote total. Qpack says the indies are giving Bruce a 21% margin in votes cast but Mrs. Ernst is ahead in likely voters. The President carried the indies by 22% so that is a great sign you know a bird in the hand kind of thing.
Yet right this second the GOP has a lead in the returned votes department but how many “indies” of those 44K are theirs? See what I mean.
Now where we have an advantage is the number of field staff V. The GOP field staff, we have a big edge and that translates to late line voting. Targeted engagement is a winner in my book as we update data banks daily and marshal resources from that data. ” Hey John Doe let’s get that ballot in the mail, please. ” and “Mrs. Smith could you ask your daughter to get that ballot in, it is that close.” Phone banks and groundpounders taking people to vote.
So if Mrs. Ernst is ahead 3% I feel we can make that up from the field and many political scientists agree. OFA/Iowa Democrat is that good. I am looking for 1,250,000 a little more than 60% to cast a ballot so that equates to 36,000 votes or thereabouts, yes, It can be done.
okoboji-mike Thu 23 Oct 11:39 AM