The August straw poll is traditionally the most-watched “cattle call” before the Iowa Republican caucuses and an important state GOP fundraiser.
Responding to criticism of past straw polls, the Republican Party of Iowa revamped this year’s plans, hoping to encourage broad participation. However, signs point to most of the top-tier presidential candidates opting out.
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush was the first potential presidential candidate to make clear that he will not participate in the straw poll. Since he has never been a favorite among Iowa conservative activists, I doubt many politics-watchers expected him to come to Boone in August.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee’s decision not to compete in this year’s straw poll was more surprising, as Huckabee’s second-place finish in the 2007 event was a key moment for his campaign. In a guest column for the Des Moines Register last week, Huckabee wrote,
[T]o win in 2016, it’s important to learn from the mistakes of the last few election cycles, in which conservatives were divided and opened a path for a more moderate establishment candidate to ultimately win the nomination, only to lose to Obama.
[…] I appreciate the Iowa GOP for recognizing the need for some reforms, but playing to win in the straw poll still requires a heavy concentration of staff and financial resources.
After consulting with many of our Iowa volunteers and supporters, as well as key activists whose opinion we value, I have decided to forgo taking part in the Iowa straw poll – or any other straw poll – and will instead focus our campaign’s attention and resources on the Iowa caucuses.
Conservative and hard-working Iowans want a strong and principled conservative Republican nominee for president who represents their values. I have concluded this year’s Iowa straw poll will serve only to weaken conservative candidates and further empower the Washington ruling class and their hand-picked candidates.
History will repeat itself if we don’t learn from the past. It’s clear that pitting conservative candidates with limited resources against each other in a non-binding and expensive summer straw poll battle, while allowing billionaire-backed establishment candidates to sit out, will only wound and weaken the conservative candidates who best represent conservative and hard-working Iowans.
This morning, Iowa GOP officials held an “informational meeting” for representatives of presidential candidates who may come to the straw poll. Communications to the campaigns emphasized that attending the meeting would not commit anyone to participate in the event.
According to Jennifer Jacobs of the Des Moines Register, only the following seven likely candidates sent a representative to today’s meeting: Donald Trump, Ben Carson, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Senator Ted Cruz, Senator Lindsey Graham, Carly Fiorina, and former Texas Governor Rick Perry.
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, who has led the last several opinion polls of Iowa Republicans, did not send anyone to the meeting.
Senator Rand Paul, whose father placed second in the 2011 straw poll and a close third in the 2012 Iowa caucuses, did not send anyone to the meeting.
Senator Marco Rubio, who has been rising in recent Republican polling, did not send anyone to the meeting. Someone from his campaign told Jacobs “they’ll spend money only to compete in contests that award delegates”–in other words, not on straw polls.
Former Senator Rick Santorum, the winner of the 2012 caucuses, did not send anyone to the meeting. He just launched his latest presidential campaign yesterday.
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, who has campaigned extensively in Iowa, especially at events for social consevatives, did not send anyone to the meeting.
Some of today’s no-shows might change their minds and come to Boone, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening. Making a major play for the 2011 straw poll depleted Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty’s presidential campaign funds and forced him out of the race shortly thereafter. As the Des Moines Register’s Kathie Obradovich argued in a recent column, the straw poll will still be a costly and risk-fraught affair for candidates.
[C]andidates who are seriously trying to win the poll would still likely buy thousands of tickets for supporters, at $25 each for advance sales. Then there’s a cost to rent buses to bring supporters to Boone from all over the state. If candidates are serious, they’d better be reserving those coaches now. Most campaigns have provided food, entertainment and T-shirts for supporters. They rent golf carts to shuttle staff and VIPs. Some have paid for air-conditioning. That’s well over $100,000 even before a campaign starts identifying supporters and advertising. […]
The real cost of the straw poll can’t be discounted. For top-tier candidates, the straw poll remains a high-stakes expectations game that could rattle or even crash a campaign that misses the mark.
“It kind of sounds to me like nothing’s really changed,” said Chuck Laudner, longtime Iowa political operative. Top-tier candidates still have to decide whether to risk coming in eighth. “It’s up to the candidates whether there’s a straw poll,” he said.
Assuming Bush, Huckabee, Rubio, Walker, and Paul all say no to the straw poll, the event would be missing the top five candidates in the latest Public Policy Polling survey of Iowa Republicans, or four of the top five candidates here if you believe Quinnipiac’s findings.
Former New York Governor George Pataki just announced his candidacy today, and Ohio Governor John Kasich may join the field soon. But even if they come to Boone in August, neither would be a likely top-three finisher in the Iowa caucuses under any scenario.
The media will cover the straw poll no matter what, but how many activists will pay for tickets to see eight or more minor candidates speak on a hot summer day? The Iowa GOP could lose a lot of money.
Maybe skipping the straw poll will turn out to be a mistake for the current front-runners. For instance, Walker might regret giving Perry a chance to pitch himself as a not-too-moderate, not-too-conservative job-creating governor. Paul might regret giving Cruz a free pass at appealing to the anti-establishment crowd.
More likely, they will be relieved not to have blown six figures on advertising and logistics for an event that historically hasn’t been a good predictor of the Iowa caucus winner.
Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread.
P.S.- I’m surprised Graham sent someone to today’s informational meeting. In March, he told Radio Iowa’s O.Kay Henderson, “I’m not going to go, you know, pay people to vote for me. We’ll let the people of Iowa do it for free. To me, the Straw Poll is more of a political sideshow.”
UPDATE: Jennifer Jacobs reported that Walker
recently told the Register he’s not a presidential candidate yet so any straw poll decision would be premature. Aides for Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal told the Register their lawyers cautioned them against participating in such meetings if Jindal’s not an official presidential candidate.
SECOND UPDATE: Jonathan Martin reported for the New York Times on May 30,
County Republican leaders representing over 90 of Iowa’s 99 counties have signed a letter pleading with the presidential prospects to compete in the straw poll, according to an Iowa Republican who shared the document and has been briefed on the strategy.
“The Iowa straw poll is a tradition worth supporting and one grass-roots activists will fight to preserve,” states the letter, which is being circulated by Republican leaders from the state’s two largest counties, Polk and Linn. “Fortune favors the bold.” […]
“Today, our beloved straw poll is under attack from political elites who want the people to have less power in the nomination process,” wrote Craig Williams, the Carroll County party chairman [on the strawpollpetition.com website].
In his own email to a list of undisclosed recipients – also forwarded by an Iowa Republican – Mr. Williams used even more provocative language that underscored the nervousness party activists feel about the potential decline of the poll’s importance.
“All a candidate really needs this year is 1) a plane ticket to Iowa, 2) a hotel room for the night and 3) the boldness to face 20,000 Iowans,” wrote Mr. Williams, who is also a member of the state party’s governing board. “If they can’t do that, how can we expect them to face ISIS?”
Thanks to Mr. Williams for providing a perfect example of the “prairie prima donna” attitude that hurts the Iowa caucuses. Get over yourself. Presidential candidates don’t owe you a thing, and deciding whether to help the Iowa GOP raise money is no test of personal courage.
The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics released a new poll of Iowa GOP likely caucus-goers on May 30. The top five candidates are Scott Walker (17 percent), Rand Paul and Ben Carson (10 percent each), and Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee (9 percent each). Of that group, only Carson appears likely to compete in Boone.
Marco Rubio was the candidate most named as a second choice in the latest Iowa poll, suggesting he has strong potential to increase his support. Unfortunately for the Iowa GOP, Rubio doesn’t view the straw poll as a worthwhile investment.