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Bleeding Heartland
It's what plants crave.

Enter the Bleeding Heartland election prediction contest

by: desmoinesdem

Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 16:21:25 PM CDT


Bumped. Don't forget to enter by Tuesday morning at 6 am!

I realize I forgot to include a question about how many Iowa counties Obama will win (99 total). If you like, you can reply to your own election prediction with a guess on that too.

If you've already submitted a prediction and want to revise it, just reply to your comment with your updated guesses.

I am still trying to decide whether to go with my optimistic or pessimistic scenario and will post my final prediction on Monday night.

There are no tangible prizes here--only bragging rights for the winners.

Enter if you dare. Try to come up with guesses for all the questions. Before you complain that these questions are tough, look at the Swing State Project prediction contest.

Your vote percentage guesses do not have to add up to 100 percent if you believe that minor-party candidates or write-ins will pick up a few percent of the vote.

1. What percentage of the national popular vote with Barack Obama and John McCain receive?

2. How many electoral votes will Obama and McCain win? (538 total)

3. What percentage of the vote will Obama and McCain win in Iowa?

4. What percentage of the vote will Bruce Braley and Dave Hartsuch receive in the 1st district?

5. What percentage of the vote will Dave Loebsack and Mariannette Miller-Meeks receive in the 2nd district?

6. What percentage of the vote will Leonard Boswell and Kim Schmett receive in the 3rd district?

7. What percentage of the vote will Tom Latham and Becky Greenwald receive in the 4th district?

8. What percentage of the vote will Steve King and Rob Hubler receive in the 5th district?

9. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans have in the Iowa House after the election (currently 53-47 Dem)?

10. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans have in the Iowa Senate after the election (currently 30-20 Dem)?

11. Which Congressional race in Iowa will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?

12. Which Iowa House or Senate race will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?

13. Nationally, which U.S. Senate race will be decided by the narrowest margin (in terms of percentage of the vote difference, not raw votes)?

14. In the presidential race, which state will be decided by the narrowest margin (again, in terms of percentage of the vote)?

The deadline for entering this contest is 6 am on November 4.

Please don't e-mail me your predictions. Post a comment if you want to enter the contest. If you're a lurker, this is an ideal time to register for a Bleeding Heartland account so that you can post comments.

UPDATE: Here are my predictions. I went with my optimistic scenario nationally but my more pessimistic scenario for Iowa, having been emotionally scarred by too many disappointing election nights.

1. National popular vote, rounded to the nearest point: Obama 54 percent, McCain 45 percent

2. Electoral college: Obama 353, McCain 185 (Obama wins all Kerry states plus IA, NM, CO, NV, OH, FL, VA and NC)

3. In Iowa, Obama will win 56 percent, McCain 43 percent

4. Braley 62, Hartsuch 38

5. Loebsack 57, Miller-Meeks 40 (I have no doubt that she will overperform McCain in this D+7 district, but it won't be enough. She should run for the statehouse someday.)

6. Boswell 55, Schmett 45

7. Heartbreaker in the fourth: Latham 51, Greenwald 49. I expect too many independents to split their tickets. That said, I wouldn't be shocked to see Greenwald win this race on Obama's coat-tails. I just don't see that as the most likely outcome.

8. Again, I wouldn't rule out a surprise victory for Hubler if a lot of Republicans stay home tomorrow, but my prediction is (sadly) going to be King 54, Hubler 46.

9. The Iowa House will have 56 Democrats and 44 Republicans.

10. The Iowa Senate will have 33 Democrats and 17 Republicans.

11. IA-04 will be the closest Congressional race.

12. My gut feeling is that as in 2004, an Iowa House or Senate district not being targeted by either party will turn out to be closer than any of the targeted races. However, I have no idea how to select that kind of district, so I'm going to guess that the House district 81 race between Phyllis Thede and Jamie Van Fossen will be the closest.

13. The closest U.S. Senate race will be in Georgia.

14. North Carolina will be the state decided by the smallest margin in the presidential race (this was tough for me, because I also think Georgia and Missouri will be very close).

SECOND UPDATE: I forgot to predict that Obama will carry 61 of Iowa's 99 counties.

Also, do great minds think alike? I find very little to disagree with in John Deeth's prediction post. Meanwhile, Chris Bowers' final election forecasts for the electoral vote and U.S. Senate are identical to mine. I predicted a slightly bigger net gain for Democrats in the U.S. House than Bowers did, though.

desmoinesdem :: Enter the Bleeding Heartland election prediction contest
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BH election prediction contest (4.00 / 2)
1. What percentage of the national popular vote with Barack Obama and John McCain receive?
Obama 52 - McCain 45

2. How many electoral votes will Obama and McCain win? (538 total)
Obama 354 - McCain 184

3. What percentage of the vote will Obama and McCain win in Iowa?
Obama 54 - McCain 44

4. What percentage of the vote will Bruce Braley and Dave Hartsuch receive in the 1st district?
Braley 62 - Hartsuch 37

5. What percentage of the vote will Dave Loebsack and Mariannette Miller-Meeks receive in the 2nd district?
Loebsack 54 - Miller-Meeks 46

6. What percentage of the vote will Leonard Boswell and Kim Schmett receive in the 3rd district?
Boswell 58 - Schmett 42

7. What percentage of the vote will Tom Latham and Becky Greenwald receive in the 4th district?
Greenwald 51 - Latham 49

8. What percentage of the vote will Steve King and Rob Hubler receive in the 5th district?
Hubler 49 - King 48

9. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans have in the Iowa House after the election (currently 53-47 Dem)?
59 - 41 (Dem controlled)

10. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans have in the Iowa Senate after the election (currently 30-20 Dem)?
34-16 (Dem controlled)

11. Which Congressional race in Iowa will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
Hubler v. King

12. Which Iowa House or Senate race will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
Elesha Gayman v. Ross Paustian

13. Nationally, which U.S. Senate race will be decided by the narrowest margin (in terms of percentage of the vote difference, not raw votes)?
Elizabeth Dole v. Kay Hagen

14. In the presidential race, which state will be decided by the narrowest margin (again, in terms of percentage of the vote)?
Missouri


Prediction (4.00 / 2)
1. BHO 52.1%  JSM 46.6%
2. BHO 274    JSM 259 (One faithless elector)
3. BHO 56%    JSM 41%
4. Braley 61%  Hatrsch 39%
5. Loebsack 55% Miller-Meeks 44%
6. Boswell 54% Schmett 45%
7. Greenwald 48% Latham 51%
8. Hubler 50% King 49%
9 58 Democrats 42 Republicans
10. 32 Democrats 18 Republicans
11. Hubler Beats King by 72 votes out of + 300,000 cast
12. Swati Dakender wins by less than 100 votes
13. Bruce Lunsford beats Mitch McConnell by .04%
14. Florida goes to McCain by 2%  

Predictions (4.00 / 1)
1. What percentage of the national popular vote with Barack Obama and John McCain receive?

53 Obama
44 McCain
3 Other

2. How many electoral votes will Obama and McCain win? (538 total)

397-141
http://scoreboard.dailykos.com...

3. What percentage of the vote will Obama and McCain win in Iowa?

11%

4. What percentage of the vote will Bruce Braley and Dave Hartsuch receive in the 1st district?

Braley wins by at least 10%

5. What percentage of the vote will Dave Loebsack and Mariannette Miller-Meeks receive in the 2nd district?

Loebsack by at least 10%

6. What percentage of the vote will Leonard Boswell and Kim Schmett receive in the 3rd district?

Boswell by 12% or more

7. What percentage of the vote will Tom Latham and Becky Greenwald receive in the 4th district?

Greenwald by 1%

8. What percentage of the vote will Steve King and Rob Hubler receive in the 5th district?

Hubler by 60% =)

9. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans have in the Iowa House after the election (currently 53-47 Dem)?

Gain 5 maybe..

10. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans have in the Iowa Senate after the election (currently 30-20 Dem)?

Maybe stay the same..

11. Which Congressional race in Iowa will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?

Greenwald/Latham

12. Which Iowa House or Senate race will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?

no clue..

13. Nationally, which U.S. Senate race will be decided by the narrowest margin (in terms of percentage of the vote difference, not raw votes)?

Franken/Barkley/Coleman

14. In the presidential race, which state will be decided by the narrowest margin (again, in terms of percentage of the vote)?

Montana: Obama by less than 1%


Predictions (0.00 / 0)
1. Obama 52% McCain 48%

2. Obama 367 McCain 171

3. Iowa-- Obama 54% McCain 45%

4. IA 1-- Braley 60% Hartsuch 38%

5. IA 2-- Loebsack 50% MMM 47%

6. IA 3-- Boswell 56% Schmett 43%

7. IA 4-- Latham 53% Greenwald 46% (sorry...)

8. IA 5-- King 56% Hubler 43%

9. IA House-- 56-44

10. IA Senate-- 32-18

11. Loebsack vs. MMM (Due in part to third party candidates)

12. Klein vs. Marek (Either could win)

13. Franken v. Coleman (Either could win here too)

14. Indiana goes Obama by less than 2%



you're not too confident about Loebsack (0.00 / 0)
but I don't think it will be that close. It's a D+7 district in a presidential year, after all. Krusty agrees with you that the IA-02 race is "the only game in town," though.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
Disappointed in Loebsack (0.00 / 0)
I think Loebsack is more vulnerable than people want to admit, and I'm frankly a little disappointed in him thus far.

First, I don't think he's done enough in the way of flood relief. There's still an awful lot of people hurting in Cedar Rapids, and they deserved and still deserve more and quicker relief money and assistance than he's been able to get. As well, he didn't do a good job in being active and reassuring in the public eye during and after the flood.

Second, Loebsack has taken a ridiculous amount of PAC money...over 60% of his total campaign funds. Loebsack has taken more PAC money than Steve King, if you believe it.

Third, I think Loebsack has been a pretty lazy campaigner and a lazy congressman. He doesn't seem to be too interested in campaigning (or really caring about) down-district, where MMM (from Ottumwa) has a chance to run up the score. Say what you will about her, but she is an absolute campaigning force...she's all over the place all the time.

Both the Cedar Rapids Gazette and the Ottumwa Courier have picked MMM over Loebsack, and I think that if nothing else speaks to his vulnerability and disappointment.

I haven't yet decided if I want to vote for him or not, but I hope it's close to give him a chance to shape up...because I think everyone expected more from him.

http://www.gazetteonline.com/a...

http://www.ottumwacourier.com/...


[ Parent ]
PAC money (0.00 / 0)
I don't think it's a big deal unless 1) the PACs represent interests I disagree with, and 2) Loebsack has a record of voting against his constituents' interests but in favor of the PAC interests.

Latham has taken way more PAC money than Loebsack, and a lot of it is corporate PAC money, but the Republicans who complain about Loebsack being "PAC-man" don't have a problem with Latham.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.


[ Parent ]
Bill Spencer's Predictions (0.00 / 0)
1. What percentage of the national popular vote with Barack Obama and John McCain receive?

51 Obama to 49 McCain

2. How many electoral votes will Obama and McCain win? (538 total)

286 McCain, 251 Obama

3. What percentage of the vote will Obama and McCain win in Iowa?

53 Obama, 46 McCain

4. What percentage of the vote will Bruce Braley and Dave Hartsuch receive in the 1st district?

60 Braley, 40 Hartsuch

5. What percentage of the vote will Dave Loebsack and Mariannette Miller-Meeks receive in the 2nd district?

50 MMM, 48 Loebsack, 2 Other

6. What percentage of the vote will Leonard Boswell and Kim Schmett receive in the 3rd district?

55 Boswell, 45 Schmett

7. What percentage of the vote will Tom Latham and Becky Greenwald receive in the 4th district?

58 Latham, 42 Greenwald

8. What percentage of the vote will Steve King and Rob Hubler receive in the 5th district?

58 King, 42 Hubler

9. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans have in the Iowa House after the election (currently 53-47 Dem)?

51 Democrats, 49 Republicans

10. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans have in the Iowa Senate after the election (currently 30-20 Dem)?

17 Republicans, 33 Democrats

11. Which Congressional race in Iowa will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?

2nd CD - MMM & Loebsack

12. Which Iowa House or Senate race will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?

Hoy v. Sweeney

13. Nationally, which U.S. Senate race will be decided by the narrowest margin (in terms of percentage of the vote difference, not raw votes)?

Hagan v. Dole

14. In the presidential race, which state will be decided by the narrowest margin (again, in terms of percentage of the vote)?

Ohio


fivethirtyeight.com (0.00 / 0)
has been analyzing the scenarios with one candidate winning the popular vote and the other candidate winning the electoral vote. If that were to happen it would be far more likely that Obama would win the electoral vote while losing the popular vote. The electoral college, which has traditionally had a Republican lean, for once tilts Democratic this year.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
an iowa expat's perspective... (0.00 / 0)
1.  Obama 51 McCain 45
2.  Obama 356 McCain 182
3.  Obama 54 McCain 44
4.  Braley 58 Hartsuch 42
5.  Loebsack 53 Miller-Meeks 45
6.  Boswell 59 Schmett 41
7.  Latham 49 Greenwald 51
8.  King 52 Hubler 48
9.  Dems 57 GOP 43
10.  Dems 32 GOP 18
11.  4th district
12.  dunno, Barasel - Grassley?
13.  Minnesota
14.  Indiana

I was an expat myself (0.00 / 0)
for about 15 years--welcome!  

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
predictions (0.00 / 0)
1. National Popular Vote: 52 Obama, 47 McCain, 1 Other
2. Electoral Votes: 333 Obama, 208 McCain
3. Iowa Popular Vote: 52 Obama 48 McCain
4. Bruce Bradly 56 Dave Harlsuch 44
5. Dave Loebsack 53 Mariannette Miller-Meeks 47
6. Leornard Boswell 54 Kim Schmett 46
7. Tom Latham 49.5 Becky Greenwald 50.5
8. Steve King 52 Rob Hubler 48
9. Dem vs Rep in Iowa House 57-43
10. Dem vs Rep in Senate 30-20
11. Closest race Greenwald vs. Latham
12. Closest Iowa Senate: Swati Dandekar vs. Joe Childers
13. Closest US Senate: Minnesota, Coleman vs. Fanken
14. Closest State: Missouri
15. Number of Iowa Counties: Obama 41, McCain 58

I'll bite (0.00 / 0)
1. Obama 52.9, McCain 46.0

2. Obama 364 McCain 174

3. Obama 54.5 McCain 42.9

4. Bruce 60 Dave 40

5. Dave 55 Miller Meeks 45

6. Boswell 57 Schmett 43

7. Latham 53 Greenwald 47

8. King 54 Hubler 46

9. 55-45 Dems

10. 32-18 Dems

11. IA-04

12. 81

13. MN-Sen

14. Missouri

That's my stab at it at least.  


thanks for entering! (0.00 / 0)
I hope Franken pulls through. Coleman never should have won that seat to begin with.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
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