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IA-Gov, IA-Sen: Branstad, Harkin favored in 2014

by: desmoinesdem

Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 07:50:00 AM CST

Public Policy Polling's last Iowa survey before the general election suggests that both Governor Terry Branstad and Senator Tom Harkin are favored looking ahead to possible re-election campaigns in 2014.  
desmoinesdem :: IA-Gov, IA-Sen: Branstad, Harkin favored in 2014
Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,122 likely Iowa voters on November 3 and 4, producing a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent. Click here (pdf) to view the polling memo, with questionnaire and crosstabs.

About 48 percent of respondents said they approve of Branstad's job performance, while only 36 percent disapproved. That's similar to what PPP found in August and a lot better than the governor's approval rating in several PPP polls during 2011, when Branstad was underwater or barely even on approval.

In addition, 49 percent of PPP's respondents in the latest survey said they would vote for Branstad against an unnamed Democratic opponent if a governor's election were held today. Just 40 percent said they would vote for the unnamed Democrat, while 11 percent were unsure. This poll probably understates Branstad's strength, because it reached a presidential year electorate. Registered Iowa Democrats will likely be a smaller share of the electorate in 2014.

Given Iowa's history of gubernatorial elections during my lifetime, you don't need a poll to tell you Branstad will be hard to beat if he seeks a sixth term in 2014. Before Governor Chet Culver lost in 2010, you have to go back to the 1960s to find an example of an Iowa governor losing a re-election bid. Had Republican power brokers not brought Branstad back into politics, I think that even against the backdrop of the worst recession in 60 years, Culver could have won a second term against likely GOP nominee Bob Vander Plaats.

Branstad may be disappointed not to have Republicans in control of the Iowa Senate, but I suspect that having Senate Democrats block the more extreme GOP policy initiatives has kept Branstad's approval rating relatively high. Like Todd Dorman says, Iowans seem to like our state government divided.

In contrast, several Republican governors who had "the trifecta" in their states after winning in 2010 go into the next election cycle looking more vulnerable than Branstad.

Senator Tom Harkin's approval numbers weren't as strong as Branstad's in the PPP poll: 41 percent approve, 40 percent disapprove, 18 percent unsure. Harkin hasn't been in the news as much this year, especially with Congress adjourned since August. Harkin's re-elect numbers were comparable to Branstad's: 48 percent of respondents said they would vote for Harkin if a Senate election were held today, while 40 percent would vote for an unnamed Republican opponent and 12 percent were unsure.

Although the 2014 Iowa electorate will probably lean more Republican than PPP's sample for this survey, I would consider Harkin strongly favored to win a sixth term. He won re-election by double digits in 2002, which wasn't a great midterm for Democrats across the country. Iowa Republicans weren't able to recruit a strong candidate against him in 2008, when he defeated Christopher Reed by 25 points.

Harkin will go into the next election with a big war chest and the top spot on one of the Senate's most important committees. I don't think a Republican heavyweight will be eager to take him on in 2014.

A few years ago, many Iowa Democrats expected Harkin to retire at the end of his current term, but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore. It surely helps that Democrats kept the majority in the upper chamber. Running the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions is a lot more fun than being the minority party's ranking member on that committee.

Please share any relevant comments in this thread, including speculation about possible challengers to Branstad or Harkin.

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Bets on BVP? (0.00 / 0)
Is the ego big enough for another primary challenge?

I don't think (0.00 / 0)
his ego can take losing to Branstad again, and I think even BVP will realize he has no chance of beating Branstad in a primary.

Don't know what he'll do to keep himself busy during the next cycle.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
BVP (0.00 / 0)
Before the Iowa Supreme Court legalized gay marriage I thought it was likely that BVP was going to run against Harkin, now that the battles over gay marriage has logically moved to state government, I'm not sure that BVP really has a logical office to run for.

I think if Todd Akin had won or even come remotely close to beating Claire McCaskill that would have given Steve King a serious reason to consider running against Harkin, as it stands now he really has no reason to give up his stage in the House.

The Iowa GOP would be hard pressed to nominate a worse candidate in comparison to Chris Reed.  Reed's ideology is way to the right no question, but you would have thought that based on resources alone he could have run a lot better race.  

[ Parent ]
no doubt someone will step forward (4.00 / 1)
but it will probably be someone on the level of Chris Reed or his primary opponents from 2008 (Steve Rathje, George Eichhorn).

I don't think Steve King will ever run for any higher office. He has to know he would lose a statewide election. With a 55K voter registration advantage in his district, he finished only about 32,000 votes ahead of Vilsack, meaning he lost the no-party vote. The other Congressional winners (Braley, Loebsack, Latham) beat their opponents by more than their party's voter registration edge in their districts.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
Any thoughts ... (4.00 / 1)
...on Dem candidates for Gov in 2014?  I notice Jack Hatch had a news conf today, criticizing TB on the health exchange issue. Looks like he is off and running.

Who else? Rob Hogg has been stumping the state on climate change. No way Christie would do it, would she? Any women? I can't think of any in the Senate, except maybe Janet Peterson, but she just got in there....

How about Tom Vilsack, if he isn't held over?

don't think Tom Vilsack (0.00 / 0)
would take on that challenge. Hogg and Hatch are both up for re-election in the Senate in 2014. I would like to see them both stay in the Senate.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
Braley for Governor? (0.00 / 0)
Could he win?

Donate to Franken!Keep our Senate Blue!

Braley (0.00 / 0)
I always thought of Braley as Harkin's heir apparent, but if TH seeks another term, BB could decide to run for Governor, I guess.  Couple other oft mentioned names are businessman Fred Hubbell and Barry Griswell from the GDM Community Foundation, but their names keep getting mentioned and they never seem to do anything about it.

[ Parent ]
I would not advise (4.00 / 1)
any Democrat to give up an elected office in order to run against Branstad.  

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
candidates (0.00 / 0)
I think a pretty likely scenario is that Branstad steps aside and lets Reynolds run.  Terry stepped in to help the R's beat Culver, but I'm not certain that he wants to run for one  more term, and he seems to like and respect and Reynolds. It wasn't just a matter of gender balance on the ticket. Politically, she's a good fit for Republicans.  With Terry's help, she would easily be the frontrunner.

In fairness, I was very surprised to see Terry run again in 2010.  

As for the D's, I suspect they will look for someone outside of Des Moines or Cedar Rapids.  Patty Judge is pretty conservative for a D, but I'm not sure she is done with politics, so I would add her name to the list with Braley


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