Zogby poll--I'm not buying it

by: desmoinesdem

Fri Feb 09, 2007 at 18:18:46 PM CST

In Iowa, Zogby has Clinton and Edwards at 24 percent, Obama at 18 percent, and Vilsack with 9 percent.

I am skeptical and I'll tell you why below the fold.

The first caucus I was old enough to vote in was in 1988, but it wasn't until 2004 that I truly understood why they always say you need a good organization to win the caucuses. I think Edwards would have won if he'd had more precinct captains in place before December and January.

Right now I am for Edwards and I would lean toward Vilsack as a second choice--I can't see myself caucusing for Clinton or Obama in any scenario. I don't want anyone to accuse me of having a hidden agenda here.

I think the caucus system favors Edwards and Vilsack in a big way. Last I heard, a plurality of county chairs were for Edwards, and pretty much every active Democrat in Iowa who's over 25 has already voted for Vilsack twice. Edwards and Vilsack will have a big edge when it comes to lining up the precinct captains who will turn out the voters in their neighborhoods.

Almost all of the people I know who caucused for Edwards last time are still for him--we know he can turn out a lot of people on caucus night. We know from last time around that he connects extremely well in the smaller communities, and with Ed Fallon supporting his campaign, I expect him to do well in the major urban areas too.

Obama is more of an unknown now. I think a lot of people are interested, especially given the puff pieces that appeared in various magazines over the past few months. But you need the hard-core voters who will show up on a January night to a location that's different from their usual polling place.

I also wonder whether Obama  will be be able to put together the broad support you need to win a caucus. As you all know, whether I pack 100 or 500 Edwards supporters into my precinct caucus doesn't change the number of delegates my precinct can assign. I wonder if Obama will be viable everywhere or if he will pack the halls in some areas while falling below the threshhold in other parts of the state.

Although we can't tell this from the polls, talking with people in my neighborhood suggests to me that Clinton's support is coming from casual political participants. These people may vote in general elections, but will they spend an hour or more of their time on a Monday evening? I'm a mom with young kids, and although I'd never miss the caucus, I'll be the first to tell you it's a hassle to work around mealtimes, homework, bath times and the bedtime routine. Young parents who are not highly motivated to vote are just not going to deal with that hassle.

I remember how frustrated I was when I couldn't get a particular Kerry supporter to my caucus last time--she'd just had her third baby two or three weeks earlier, and while she would have stopped by a polling place to vote in a regular election, she was not going to drag the whole family out on a school night.

I literally do not know anyone who volunteered for a campaign last time (as precinct captain, canvasser or phone banker) who is planning to volunteer for Clinton's campaign. And I know a lot of those type of Democrats in the Des Moines area. She's got a lot of money, but I wonder if she will have enough volunteers to turn out the middle-class suburbanites she seems to be going for.

I also have serious doubts that Clinton's campaign will fly in rural and small-town Iowa. I expect her to fall below the viability threshhold in a lot of places, whereas I expect Edwards to be viable pretty much everywhere.

Then there is the question of second choices. Do you know anyone who says Clinton is my second choice? If she's not your first choice, she's probably your last choice. I expect Edwards and Obama and Vilsack all to benefit from the supporters of non-viable candidates--maybe Vilsack most of all because everyone's already voted for him twice.

What do all you politically savvy Iowans think? I just don't buy the recent polls showing Clinton ahead here.