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    Looking at the Iowa Caucus results

    by: Chris Woods

    Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 13:05:01 PM CST


    There has been a flurry of blog posts and news stories talking about the entrance polling and the results of the caucuses.  The basics we know include things like record turnout and a surge in the number of youth showing up to the Democratic caucuses, as well as 'no party' folks changing their registration to Democrat.

    I don't have the capacity nor the will power to significantly examine all of the results county by county, candidate by candidate.  But I can direct you towards some very interesting information.

    First of all, if you'd like some detailed results and would like to see some maps, feel free to check out CaucusResults.com which has the detailed information about the results courtesy of the Iowa Democratic Party.  If you provided some information to the party prior to caucus night by visiting IowaCaucusResults.com then you should've received an email notification with a password so you could log in.  If you didn't and would like to be able to see the information, feel free to email me and I can get you logged in.

    Secondly, one of the big things that we've seen talked about is the amount of youth turnout for the caucuses.  Whether you call youth 17-24 year olds or 17-29 year olds it seems pretty clear that folks my age showed up and participated.  Iowa Student Public Interest Research Group (PIRG) put out a release talking about the numbers (which can be found here) and it clearly shows how the youth support was another cushion of support for Barack Obama.  The Register examined the same thing here, while also noting the evangelical Christian support that helped Huckabee.  The Register also provides a county map that shows which candidate won which county, including counties that are "ties" (at least according to percentage totals).  The breakdown follows like this:

    • Barack Obama: 41 counties
    • John Edwards: 29 counties
    • Hillary Clinton: 25 counties
    • Ties: 4 counties

    Looking specifically at the four counties where there were ties, they were ties because the number of delegates for first place were evenly divided.  Three were tied for Clinton and Edwards; one was split for Clinton and Obama.

    Finally, and I think this is one of most fascinating posts and discussion about the caucus results, go over to the Daily Yonder and read their post about how Democratic and Republican candidates did in rural Iowa.  Edwards' strategy focused heavily on rural Iowa, and while it paid off for him a bit, it wasn't the deciding fact simply because of the turnout Barack Obama was able to bring about in both urban and rural Iowa.  Fascinating piece of information alert:

    "Both Edwards and Clinton won more votes in rural Iowa than in urban Iowa."

    I'll leave that little bit of information to you guys to figure out what it means in the grand scheme of things in this presidential race.  Any other interesting demographics or information you think we should talk about?
    Chris Woods :: Looking at the Iowa Caucus results
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    At some point I will dig into the county-level results and do some analysis, but I don't have the time or energy to do that now. Among other things, I've got a sick two-year-old at home.

    I think that Obama really won this thing--Edwards and Clinton did not lose it. By any reasonable measure, the turnout was incredible for all of the candidates. Edwards and Clinton executed their strategies well, but Obama's team executed theirs better.

    Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.


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