| One of the many reasons I supported John Edwards was that I thought he would expand the map for Democrats in the general election. I thought he would hold all of the Kerry states, adding Iowa and Ohio with ease, and would make things competitive in several other places too (like Missouri).
I think Clinton or Obama could beat McCain or lose to him. Clinton's winning scenario is obvious: turn out record numbers of women and Latinos, rack up a big lead among seniors, thereby holding most if not all of the Kerry states and adding Florida and/or Ohio.
Plenty of things could go wrong with Clinton's scenario, but it is hard to argue that she would not turn out record numbers of women and Latinos.
Obama's winning electoral vote scenario is less certain for me. Although nationwide polls show him doing slightly better against McCain than Clinton, he runs behind Clinton against McCain in several key states:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008...
And that's before the right-wing hate machine has even opened fire against Obama. With Clinton, we pretty much know where her floor is, but with Obama, who knows?
That's why Charlie Cook recently argued that Clinton would probably win between 48 percent and 52 percent of the general election vote, whereas Obama could get 55 percent or more, but could also conceivably get below 45 percent in the general.
Yesterday I asked Obama supporters at MyDD to give me their scenarios for 270 electoral votes against McCain. MyDD user JDF came up with this:
http://www.mydd.com/comments/2...
Here is how I see Obama getting to 270. This is a broad strokes view and I put it together relatively quickly so I am sure it is not perfect, but at least shows (from my POV) that it is not a stretch for Obama to get well past 270.
States he WINS
Wash: 11
Oregon: 7
Cali: 55
New York: 31
DC: 3
Maryland: 10
New Jersey: 15
Mass: 12
RI: 4
CT: 7
NH: 4
VT: 3
ME: 3
Michigan: 17
Illinois: 21
Minnesota: 10
That would give him 213 Electoral Votes.
There are 20 in Ohio, 21 in Pennsylvania, 27 in Florida, 13 in Virginia, 11 in Missouri, 11 in Indiana, 5 in Nevada, 5 in New Mexico, 10 in Wisconsin, 7 in Iowa
Puts 130 other Electoral Votes in play that I think fall anywhere from a strong edge for Obama to a moderate edge to McCain at this point.
Also, and this is a stretch, but I would argue that he can compete in states like South Carolina, Georgia, and Louisiana. Which puts another 32 electoral votes within reach but highly unlikely.
All in all I would give the GE edge to Obama. Also, I don't think you give people in the south enough credit to be able to look past Obama's skin color or Obama's ability to transcend it. The people who "would never vote for a black guy" would never vote for a democrat either.
I think this is plausible (except for the part about SC, GA and LA), and I would throw in Iowa's 7 votes for Obama against McCain. Also, Maine would probably deliver all 4 of its electoral votes to Obama (they don't have winner-take-all there). Still, that only brings Obama to 221 electoral votes.
Florida is a write-off, given McCain's strength among military and Latinos, and Obama's relative weakness among Latinos and seniors.
Pennsylvania and Ohio could be real problems for Obama against McCain, in my opinion, especially when the media start covering Obama's voting record on gun control in the Illinois legislature.
What do you think?
UPDATE: This diary by Clinton supporter silver spring is quite interesting:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008...
The MSM is constantly feeding us the theme that Obama would somehow be more "electable" in the general election because he overwhelmingly attracts independent voters, and if Hillary is the nominee, then McCain will get the bulk of the independents.
There are two things wrong with the above proposition - 1) Even though Obama is attracting more independents, Hillary is not doing bad either; for one thing, she is attracting more independents than McCain .... but more importantly - 2) Independents are only one subset of traditional swing voters, the other subsets being Hispanics, white Catholics, white women and suburban voters. Among the last four subsets above, Hillary is comfortably beating Obama (as well as McCain).
The diary has a lot of good analysis, including this bit, which refers to November 2004 exit poll data:
From the above 2004 numbers it's interesting to note that Kerry actually beat Bush among independents (as well as Hispanics). However, Bush comfortably beat Kerry among Catholics, white women and suburban voters. Thus, it can be logically argued that Catholics, white women, suburban voters and Hispanics are as important as independent voters (if not more so) in order to guarantee Democratic success in November.
Catholics, white women and suburban voters are going to be crucial in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. |
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