New hope for Medicaid expansion in Iowa?

by: desmoinesdem

Mon May 20, 2013 at 17:29:00 PM CDT

Today several signs point toward a possible deal on Medicaid coverage before the end of the legislative session.

New IA-01 candidate speculation thread

by: desmoinesdem

Fri May 17, 2013 at 07:10:00 AM CDT

Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon "is nearly ready to announce" her candidacy, Rick Smith reported. She was first elected to the council in 2007, switched parties in 2009, and was re-elected in 2011. Cedar Rapids plaintiff's attorney Dave O'Brien may also run, Jennifer Jacobs reported. O'Brien's background is similar to Bruce Braley's before his first campaign in 2006.

State Representative Tyler Olson, who also chairs the Iowa Democratic Party, hasn't ruled out running for Congress, but some Polk County Democrats believe that if he runs for higher office next year, it will be against Governor Terry Branstad.

On the Republican side, Cedar Rapids business owner Steve Rathje and Dubuque business owner Rod Blum are already seeking the nomination in IA-01. Once the legislature adjourns for the year, my hunch is that a Republican lawmaker will join the race. State Representative Walt Rogers of the Cedar Falls/Waterloo area confirmed earlier this year that he's thinking about it.

The Iowa Republican's Kevin Hall reported last month that former Secretary of State and Cedar Rapids Mayor Paul Pate is "90 percent" likely to run for office in 2014. I think Pate would be a strong general election candidate but might have trouble winning an IA-01 GOP primary. It's also possible that he may run for Secretary of State again if Matt Schultz goes for the open U.S. Senate seat.

Current Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett is running for re-election and seems to have ruled out the IA-01 race, judging from his recent comments to Todd Dorman.

After the jump I've posted the latest voter registration numbers for the 20 counties in IA-01. Linn County is the largest by population, but it doesn't dominate the district. About 30 percent of the registered Democrats, 28 percent of the Republicans, and 27 percent of the no-party voters in IA-01 live in Linn County.  

IA-01: Don't freak out, organize

by: desmoinesdem

Wed May 15, 2013 at 17:43:00 PM CDT

What a waste of energy.

I am not convinced Dandekar will run for Congress, and if she runs, I doubt she will win the IA-01 primary. Several core Democratic constituencies have a problem with her, and I don't see any outpouring of support. At this writing, six days after Dandekar confirmed that she is considering the race, the Facebook page for her exploratory committee has only five "likes." I don't see her path to beating Pat Murphy or some other Democrat who may join the race later. Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon is leaning towards running, Rick Smith reported for the Cedar Rapids Gazette.

Instead of fretting over an unlikely scenario in IA-01, progressives with a grudge against conservadems should recruit a strong primary challenger to Joe Seng in Iowa Senate district 45. His voting record is worse than Dandekar's, and he's gotten some horrible legislation passed. Senate district 45, based in Davenport, is safe for Democrats in the general election.

Kent Sorenson clashing with House Republicans over abortion funding

by: desmoinesdem

Wed May 15, 2013 at 11:35:00 AM CDT

In a Facebook post last night, Sorenson lambasted members of his own party who do not keep their promises on the "pro-life" issue. He claimed that some House Republicans "are considering filing ethics charges against me" because he signed a letter Iowa Pro-Life Action sent to lawmakers. Looking through the Iowa House Code of Ethics, it's not clear to me which rule Sorenson might have violated. House Republican staffer Josie Albrecht told me by telephone that she was not aware of any pending ethics complaints by legislators against Sorenson.

I enclose the full text of the Facebook post after the jump. At this writing, it has been "shared" by 63 Facebook users, including conservative talk radio hosts Steve Deace and Jan Mickelson.

Sorenson is already facing an ethics investigation related to alleged paid work for Michele Bachmann's presidential campaign. I have been wondering whether Republicans might be better off with a different nominee in Iowa Senate district 13 next year. However, an uncompromising stand against abortion funding would serve Sorenson well if he faced a GOP primary challenger.

Iowa Democratic Party files ethics complaint against new state auditor

by: desmoinesdem

Tue May 14, 2013 at 18:40:00 PM CDT

Today, the Iowa Democratic Party filed a complaint against Mosiman with the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board.

IA-Sen: Matt Schultz talking with Republicans in Washington

by: desmoinesdem

Tue May 14, 2013 at 12:40:00 PM CDT

A few weeks ago, Republican blogger Craig Robinson put Schultz's chances of running for Senate at 90 percent. I still think there's a decent chance he will seek another term as secretary of state. A GOP Senate primary is no sure thing, especially with Schultz's weakness in the fundraising department.

On the other hand, the secretary of state's signature issue (photo ID requirements for election day voters) is extremely popular with the Republican base. Moreover, since the National Republican Senatorial Committee and outside groups are bound to target the U.S. Senate race, Schultz will have a lot of financial help if he wins the primary. Running for re-election to a lower-profile statewide office would put the pressure on him to keep up with Brad Anderson's fundraising and organizing.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. Former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker confirmed last week that he will run for Senate, and his campaign website is now live.

IA-Gov: Latest signals from Terry Branstad and Jack Hatch

by: desmoinesdem

Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:48:00 AM CDT

Meanwhile, Democratic State Senator Jack Hatch dropped a couple of hints lately about a possible run for governor.

Branstad taps Mary Mosiman for state auditor

by: desmoinesdem

Mon May 13, 2013 at 09:35:00 AM CDT

Mosiman served as Story County Auditor for ten years before Matt Schultz hired her to run the elections division of the Iowa Secretary of State's office. She is a certified public accountant, which Branstad said was a "major requirement" as he searched for Vaudt's successor.

After the jump I've posted the governor's press release, containing more background on Mosiman. She will serve as auditor until after next year's elections. I assume she will become the Republican nominee for state auditor in 2014 as well. I have not heard yet about any Democrat planning to run for that office. Iowa Democrats did not field a candidate against Vaudt in 2006. Jon Murphy launched his 2010 campaign less than five months before the general election.

IA-03: Gabriel De La Cerda

by: RDillon

Fri May 10, 2013 at 01:21:40 AM CDT

IA-01: Swati Dandekar forms exploratory committee (updated)

by: desmoinesdem

Thu May 09, 2013 at 21:21:00 PM CDT

Bleeding Heartland discussed Dandekar's potential strengths and weaknesses as a candidate here. I remain skeptical that she would win a Democratic primary, because of her legislative voting record and her decision to put the Iowa Senate majority in jeopardy in 2011, when she accepted Governor Terry Branstad's appointment to the Iowa Utilities Board. Dandekar emphasized in a statement today, " I know it is important to the people living in Northeast Iowa to continue the strong representation established by Congressman Bruce Braley. We must keep this seat in Democratic hands."  

So far State Representative Pat Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate in IA-01. Any comments about this race are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Added reaction from Murphy, details about the online presence of Dandekar's exploratory committee, and the potential candidate's official bio after the jump.

IA-Sen: Former Reliant Energy CEO Mark Jacobs thinking about it

by: desmoinesdem

Thu May 09, 2013 at 10:20:00 AM CDT

I've posted Jacobs' short bio after the jump, along with initial thoughts on his strengths and weaknesses as a candidate.

CORRECTION: The Register's Jennifer Jacobs was the first to report yesterday that Mark Jacobs might be a Senate candidate. In addition to other potential candidates Bleeding Heartland has discussed before (Matt Whitaker, Matt Schultz, A.J. Spiker, Joni Ernst, Rod Roberts, Bob Vander Plaats, and David Young), her piece also mentioned West Des Moines Mayor Steve Gaer, orthopedic surgeon Stuart Weinstein, McDonald's franchise owner Kevin O'Brien, and business owner Ron Langston, who served "as national director of the U.S. Department of Commerce's Minority Business Development Agency under President George W. Bush."

SECOND CORRECTION: I missed that The Iowa Republican speculated about Jacobs as a Senate candidate a couple of weeks ago.  

Republican Ken Rizer will challenge Daniel Lundby in Iowa House district 68

by: desmoinesdem

Thu May 09, 2013 at 07:10:00 AM CDT

If Wagner attempts to return to the statehouse, he will need to get through a GOP primary first, because yesterday Ken Rizer announced his campaign in House district 68. I've posted background on Rizer and Lundby after the jump, along with a district map and the latest voter registration totals.

IA-Sen: Whitaker ready to announce, Reynolds encouraging Ernst (updated)

by: desmoinesdem

Mon May 06, 2013 at 17:10:00 PM CDT

Also, today, Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds told journalists that she has encouraged State Senator Joni Ernst to run for the U.S. Senate. You can listen to the audio at Radio Iowa, beginning several minutes into the clip. Reynolds said that she had encouraged Ernst to run for Montgomery County auditor nearly 10 years ago, and to run in the Iowa Senate special election to replace Reynolds.

At this point, I'll be surprised if Ernst decides against running. Sean Sullivan reported at the Washington Post's blog today that her "stock is high among Republican Gov. Terry Branstad's allies." Sullivan noticed an approving tweet about Ernst from Brad Dayspring of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, though that's far from a formal endorsement.

Ernst has little fundraising experience, but if Branstad activates his donor network, she could raise a lot of money for a Senate campaign. By the same token, Whitaker has strong fundraising potential even though he's never been a candidate for office before. CORRECTION: I forgot that Whitaker ran for state treasurer in 2002. Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz would almost certainly be at a financial disadvantage in the Republican primary compared to Whitaker and Ernst, if he goes for Senate rather than for re-election to his current office. Then again, he is probably better known among the Iowa GOP base, which loves his drive for voter ID laws.

Any comments about the IA-Sen race are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Added more news after the jump.

IA-Sen: Did someone force Steve King's hand?

by: desmoinesdem

Mon May 06, 2013 at 11:40:00 AM CDT

IA-Sen: Steve King finally admits he's not running

by: desmoinesdem

Sat May 04, 2013 at 12:15:00 PM CDT

Those battles include immigration reform, where King is a leading voice House Republican voice against any path to legal residency or citizenship. He has also pledged to block the implementation of the 2010 health care reform law.

King's decision should not surprise anyone. He could not win a statewide election for any office in Iowa. I believe that if his internal polling showed the "path to victory" he claimed to see, he would be in the Senate race already. In contrast, he is favored to hold the Republican-leaning fourth Congressional district for the next decade. His likely Democratic opponent Jim Mowrer will face a steep uphill battle.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. The statement posted on King's Congressional campaign website is after the jump.

IA-Sen: Bill Northey rules out running (updated)

by: desmoinesdem

Thu May 02, 2013 at 11:10:00 AM CDT

That's bad news for State Representative Pat Grassley, rumored to be interested in the secretary of agriculture job if Northey had run for Senate.

Thousands of Democrats share Northey's hope that Representative Steve King will run, but it's not going to happen. Really. I got a kick out of his comments yesterday, though.

"There's a lot of support to do this, and I just don't know the answer. And I'm embarrassed that I don't know the answer," he said with a laugh.  He said he doesn't know when he'll make a decision.

He said he never expected to still be undecided in May. "Things are stacking up on me so fast,  I hardly have time to deal with the issue," the Kiron Republican said.  He cited events pending in Congress, especially the farm bill and the immigration issue.

If I compiled a list of things Steve King should be embarrassed about, being late to decide on the Senate race wouldn't make the top 20.

Matt Whitaker seems poised to launch a Senate campaign soon. Other Republicans considering the race include State Senator Joni Ernst, Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz, Chuck Grassley's chief of staff David Young, and former State Representative Rod Roberts.

UPDATE: Added more comments from Northey below.

Iowa Senate district 39: Could Sandy Greiner be primaried from the right?

by: desmoinesdem

Thu May 02, 2013 at 10:28:00 AM CDT

If Greiner seeks another term in the Iowa Senate, I believe she would be favored to hold what looks like a swing district on paper. But in the last few days I've been wondering whether she might run into trouble during a Republican primary. I've posted some thoughts on this scenario after the jump, along with a map and the latest voter registration totals from Senate district 39.

IA-Sen: First look at Bruce Braley's list building

by: desmoinesdem

Wed May 01, 2013 at 11:22:00 AM CDT

Without Democratic primary competition or a Republican candidate to define yet, Braley can't fire up his base by pointing out his opponent's flaws. Instead, he is using online petitions to identify and energize supporters. So far, those petitions are narrowly focused on issues important to activist groups--in contrast to the broad themes of Braley's message to Iowa voters as a whole.  

Rod Roberts confirms interest in IA-Sen race

by: desmoinesdem

Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 17:00:00 PM CDT

"A few months ago I didn't anticipate that running for the U.S. Senate would be a real possibility," Roberts said. "Like most folks, I assumed either Congressman Latham or Congressman King would run. But, as the odds have increased that neither congressman will run, more people have encouraged me to think about it. At this point, I'd say I'm certainly considering the opportunity, and I'm planning to continue talking with family, friends and supporters in the coming weeks."

Roberts represented the Carroll area in the Iowa House for a decade before running for governor in 2010. He was an adequate campaigner, but his principal role in my opinion was as stalking horse for Terry Branstad during the Republican primary. On the other hand, Carroll-based journalist Douglas Burns believes Roberts would be the ideal Senate candidate for the GOP to run against Democrat Bruce Braley.

Any comments about the IA-Sen campaign are welcome in this thread. According to Hall's latest post, State Senator Joni Ernst "has set a timeline of about 30 days to make a decision" about the Senate race. Bob Vander Plaats told the Sioux City Journal he believes Latham may change his mind about not seeking the Senate seat if Steve King decides to stay in IA-04, as expected.

UPDATE: In the unlikely event that Rod Roberts wins the Senate nomination, I think his move to reduce nursing home inspectors would become a general election campaign issue.

Brad Anderson has head start in secretary of state's race

by: desmoinesdem

Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 06:51:56 AM CDT

While Schultz considers running for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat next year, Anderson has begun building what may become the largest campaign organization for a statewide office in Iowa other than governor. Last week Anderson announced raising $102,186 for his campaign since he formally launched his candidacy. That may not sound like much money for a statewide race, but Matt Schultz didn't even raise that much during his entire 2010 candidacy. In January 2013, Schultz's re-election campaign reported $29,505.62 cash on hand but also $17,071.34 in unpaid bills.

Former Secretary of State Michael Mauro wasn't a huge fundraiser even as an incumbent seeking re-election in 2010. Mauro has not ruled out running for secretary of state again. Although he did a fantastic job in that office, he would start a Democratic primary campaign against Anderson at an organizational disadvantage.

After the jump I've listed Anderson's 99 "county captains," along with members of his campaign steering committee. Anderson commented in a press release from April 25, "The 2012 election proved a strong organization is just as important as fundraising, and I am pleased some of the best organizers in the state have joined our team and are ready to help us win this important race."