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Bleeding Heartland
It's what plants crave.
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Ben lange 
Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 07:10:00 AM CDT
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Yesterday Dubuque-based business owner Rod Blum formally announced his candidacy in the Republican primary to represent Iowa's first Congressional district. The same day, he received the endorsement of the Liberty Iowa PAC, formed two years ago by supporters of Ron Paul's presidential campaign. Both announcements are after the jump, along with my first thoughts on how much the Liberty movement could help Blum in the GOP primary.
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Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 11:30:28 AM CST
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No Republicans have announced firm plans to run for the open seat in Iowa's first Congressional district, but several people are definitely or rumored to be considering the race.
To evaluate who is best poised to win this Democratic-leaning district, it's helpful to look at where the votes are in a Republican primary as well as in a general election. After the jump I've posted a district map, the latest voter registration numbers for the 20 counties in IA-01, and a brief take on some of the possible Republican candidates.
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Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 21:35:00 PM CST
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All signs point to Representative Bruce Braley running for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat in 2014, so I thought I'd put up a new thread to discuss scenarios in the first Congressional district.
Former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy plans to run in the Democratic primary for IA-01. I don't think he's as strong a candidate as either Senate President Pam Jochum or State Senator Liz Mathis would be, and it is long past time for Democrats to nominate a woman in an open seat that leans Democratic. The latest numbers from the Iowa Secretary of State's office show that IA-01 contains 167,987 active registered Democrats, 140,227 Republicans, and 196,078 no-party voters.
On the Republican side, I am seeking comment about a possible Congressional bid from both Ben Lange and Rod Blum. Both ran against Braley in 2012; Blum narrowly lost the primary. Iowa Senate Minority Leader Bill Dix ran for IA-01 when it was last an open seat in 2006, but he has ruled out running for Congress next year as he tries to take back the Senate majority for the GOP. CORRECTION: Dix lives in Butler County, which used to be in IA-01 but is now in IA-04 under Iowa's new map.
Any comments about the IA-01 campaign are welcome in this thread. A race between Blum and either Jochum or Murphy would be an all-Dubuque affair.
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Sun Jan 13, 2013 at 12:45:00 PM CST
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Today's Sunday Des Moines Register features a long story by Jennifer Jacobs about Representative Bruce Braley considering a run for governor in 2014.
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Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 07:48:29 AM CST
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The latest voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties are out, and I wanted to do one final update on the registration totals in each county, grouped by Congressional district. Statewide, Republicans had led Democrats in voter registrations since April, but that lead was almost gone by the beginning of November. Late GOTV and election-day registrants helped put Democrats a little ahead again. As of December 3, Iowa had 640,776 active registered Democrats, 636,315 Republicans, and 722,348 no-party voters.
In the tables below, I also added vote totals for President Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, and the major-party Congressional candidates in each county, to show which candidates outpolled or underperformed their party's presidential nominee. I'm not convinced that Christie Vilsack could have beaten Tom Latham in IA-03, but Leonard Boswell finished noticeably behind the president in this district, especially in Polk County.
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Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 11:19:37 AM CDT
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To enter Bleeding Heartland's election prediction contest, post your guesses as comments in this thread before 7 am on November 6. Predictions submitted by e-mail will not be considered. It's ok to change your mind, as long as you post your revised predictions as an additional comment in this thread before the deadline.
No money's at stake here, just bragging rights like those enjoyed by Bleeding Heartland users ModerateIADem (twice), American007, Johannes, and tietack. This isn't "The Price is Right"; the winning answers will be closest to the final results, whether they were a little high or low. Even if you have no idea, please try to take a guess on every question.
Minor-party or independent candidates are on the ballot for some races, so the percentages of the vote for Democratic and Republican nominees need not add up to 100. You can view the complete list of candidates for federal and state offices in Iowa here (pdf).
Good luck, and remember: you can't win if you don't play.
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Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 10:31:10 AM CDT
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The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State's office show larger numbers of registered Democrats, Republicans, and no-party voters statewide compared to last month. Democrats and no-party voters gained more registrants than Republicans, possibly because of voter registration drives on college campuses around the state. As of November 1 (pdf), Iowa had 694,558 active no-party voters statewide, 629,443 active Republicans, and 628,043 active Democrats. That's the smallest GOP voter registration advantage since April.
After the jump I've posted the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district. Any comments about next Tuesday's elections are welcome in this thread. Iowans can register to vote on election day by bringing photo identification and proof of residency (like a utility bill or bank statement) to their local precinct.
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Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 20:17:44 PM CDT
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This thread is for any comments about Congressional races you are following, whether in Iowa or in other states. Steve King and Christie Vilsack held their seventh (!) debate tonight, but I was unable to listen, because Windsor Heights holds trick-or-treating the night before Halloween.
Democrats are starting to talk about a net gain of U.S. Senate seats, but I am not that optimistic. While some races are trending toward the Democratic candidates, others where Democrats led last month are tightening (Virginia, Wisconsin).
To me, the most amazing development in a Congressional race is President Bill Clinton campaigning for Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and recording a television commercial for her. Bleeding Heartland readers who are old enough to remember 1990s politics, could you ever have believed that Bill Clinton would be considered an asset to a Democratic candidate in North Dakota a week before the election?
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Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 09:25:00 AM CDT
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Iowans have requested a record number of early ballots for the general election with more than a week left to vote by mail or early in person. As of October 24, 565,986 Iowans had requested absentee ballots--more than the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2008 general election (545,739).
Iowa Democrats have requested about 75,000 more absentee ballots than Republicans and lead in ballot requests in three of the four Congressional districts. On October 23, Republicans finally overtook Democrats in absentee ballot requests in IA-04, where the GOP's voter registration advantage is more than 50,000.
After the jump I've posted early voting numbers from the last three presidential elections in Iowa, along with the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors. I'm updating the absentee ballot totals every weekday here, using data posted on the Iowa Secretary of State's website.
Adrian Gray, a veteran of the 2004 Bush/Cheney campaign, has been commenting on early voting trends in various states on twitter. I disagree with some of his Iowa observations and explain why below.
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Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 23:39:59 PM CDT
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It's time for another discussion thread on any competitive U.S. House and Senate races. More detailed posts about the four Iowa Congressional districts are in progress, but after the jump I've posted the latest information on independent expenditures for and against the major-party candidates. Bleeding Heartland covered the third-quarter financial reports for the Iowa Congressional candidates here. Early voting totals for each of the four Congressional districts are here.
I've also added a few links on U.S. Senate races around the country. I'm amazed that Democrats still appear to be favorites to hold a small Senate majority. For me that has been one of the most surprising political stories of the year. Republicans could still win a majority, but they would have to run the table in the tossup races.
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Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 09:35:00 AM CDT
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Twenty days before the general election, 463,219 Iowans had requested absentee ballots--more than the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2004 general election (460,059).
Also as of October 17, Iowa county auditors had received 284,569 completed absentee ballots, more than the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2000 general election (276,836).
Iowa Democrats have requested about 70,000 more absentee ballots than Republicans and lead in ballot requests in all four Congressional districts (though only barely in IA-04, where Republicans have a large voter registration advantage).
After the jump I've posted early voting numbers from the last three presidential elections in Iowa, along with the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors statewide and in the four Congressional districts. I'm updating the absentee ballot totals every weekday here, using data posted on the Iowa Secretary of State's website.
P.S.- There are three ways to vote early in Iowa. Voting in person at a county auditor's office or satellite station has a lower error rate than mailing your absentee ballot.
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Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 07:20:00 AM CDT
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The latest Federal Election Commission disclosure reports are out, covering money raised and spent by Congressional candidates between July 1 and September 30. Details from Iowa's four races are after the jump, along with information on groups that have made independent expenditures in each of the districts. The latest voter registration totals in the Congressional districts are here, and I'm updating absentee ballot totals for each district on weekdays here.
Any comments about these campaigns are welcome in this thread. I'd be particularly grateful if some Bleeding Heartland reader could explain what Tom Latham has been saving his money for, and why the PAC of the Credit Union National Association is supporting both Latham in IA-03 and Christie Vilsack in IA-04.
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Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 16:40:53 PM CDT
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It's time to catch up on news from the first Congressional district campaign between three-term Democratic Representative Bruce Braley and his two-time Republican challenger Ben Lange. After the jump I've posted my take on yesterday's debate on Iowa Public Radio, along with videos and transcripts of the latest television commercials by the campaigns and outside groups. (Bleeding Heartland covered earlier tv ads in the IA-01 race here, here, and here.)
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Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 19:01:06 PM CDT
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In a few moments Representatives Tom Latham and Leonard Boswell will debate live on KCCI-TV in Des Moines. KCCI and the Des Moines Register are live-streaming the event. It's the second debate between Boswell and Latham, who debated in Creston last night.
I taped the fifth debate between Representative Steve King and Christie Vilsack last night, but haven't had a chance to watch yet. Nor have I been able to listen to today's Iowa Public Radio program featuring Representative Bruce Braley and Ben Lange.
Any comments about any debates in the Iowa Congressional races are welcome in this thread.
UPDATE: Added some thoughts about the IA-03 debate after the jump.
SECOND UPDATE: The Braley-Lange debate is worth a listen. I posted my take in this news roundup on the IA-01 race.
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Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 14:50:03 PM CDT
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Thirty-four days before the general election, the number of Iowans who had requested absentee ballots (292,694) already exceeds the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2000 general election (276,836). At this point, Democrats have requested about twice as many absentee ballots as have Republicans and have returned more than three times as many ballots to county auditors.
Looking at the daily numbers I've archived here, you can see that as promised, Republicans have made up ground on early GOTV since the Secretary of State's Office started releasing absentee ballot totals on September 17.
After the jump I've posted the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors statewide and in each of the four Congressional districts.
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Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 10:50:00 AM CDT
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The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State's office show larger numbers of registered Democrats, Republicans, and no-party voters statewide compared to last month. Democrats and no-party voters gained more registrants than Republicans, possibly because of voter registration drives on college campuses around the state. As of October 1 (pdf), Iowa had 675,171 active no-party voters statewide, 622,176 active Republicans, and 611,284 active Democrats.
After the jump I've posted the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district. Any comments about the Congressional races are welcome in this thread.
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Thu Sep 27, 2012 at 07:15:00 AM CDT
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Early voting begins today in Iowa, 40 days before the general election. Bleeding Heartland covered the three ways to vote early here and is updating absentee ballot numbers every weekday here. After the jump I've posted more links and news related to the early voting process.
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