DNC confirms Iowa caucuses will be first in 2012

by: desmoinesdem

Fri Aug 20, 2010 at 12:59:00 PM CDT

I'll update this post with more details as they become available. In July, the DNC Rules Committee approved the following calendar: Iowa caucuses on February 6, 2012; New Hampshire primary on February 14; Nevada caucuses on February 18; and South Carolina primary on February 28. All other Democratic nominating contests would occur in March or later. The Republican National Committee has adopted a calendar keeping Iowa first as well.

Any thoughts about the 2012 caucuses are welcome in this thread.

Weekend open thread: 2012 Iowa caucuses edition

by: desmoinesdem

Sat Aug 07, 2010 at 18:32:54 PM CDT

Iowa's first-in-the-nation status is secure under the presidential nominating calendar Republican National Committee members approved yesterday.

The vote passed by a two-thirds majority, a requirement for the measure drafters included to lend to its acceptance from RNC members. The measure received 104 votes of the 144 members voting.

The caucuses would likely be held Feb. 6, under the schedule, followed in February by the New Hampshire primary, caucuses in Nevada and the South Carolina primary.

All other states would be allowed to hold their primaries and caucuses in March or April. States going in March would be required to apportion their nominating delegates proportional to the vote a candidate received in that state. April states could award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis, an incentive for states hoping to be seen as delivering the nomination.

Any state that violates the proposed calendar would lose half its RNC delegates. What do you think, Bleeding Heartland readers? Is that a big enough penalty to deter a large state from trying to jump ahead of Iowa?

I hope the calendar sticks so staffers and volunteers aren't forced to do canvassing and phone-banking between Christmas and New Year's Day, like we did before the January 3, 2008 caucuses.

At least two potential Republican presidential candidates are coming to Iowa in the next couple of weeks. Former Senator Rick Santorum is headlining a fundraiser for attorney general candidate Brenna Findley in Sioux Center on August 17, and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty is coming to the Iowa State Fair. I can't believe Santorum would think about running for president after losing re-election in a purple state by double digits. I'm still shaking my head over the warm reception Iowa Republicans give Pawlenty despite his record on fiscal issues and state borrowing. Several of Pawlenty's other ideas strike me as proposals only the hard-core GOP base could love, like cutting entitlement spending to pay for extending George W. Bush's tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.

This is an open thread.

UPDATE: I forgot that Newt Gingrich is coming to Des Moines next weekend to raise money for a Republican women's group. Continuing his habit of being wrong about everything, Newt recently condemned Shirley Sherrod as a racist and a week later denounced the Obama administration for rushing to judgment about Sherrod. He also offered an "egregious and purposeful misreading of medieval history" as an argument against allowing a mosque to be built at the "Ground Zero" site in New York City.

Republican hypocrisy watch: Pawlenty and Culver edition (updated)

by: desmoinesdem

Tue Aug 03, 2010 at 08:11:04 AM CDT

I'm more interested in the way Iowa Republicans embraced Pawlenty. Naturally, they liked his message about retaking the state legislature, and GOP House leaders can really use the campaign cash. But it's surreal to watch Republicans promise their serious consideration for Pawlenty as a presidential candidate when you compare his record with the case conservatives make against Iowa Governor Chet Culver.

Iowa Democrats, mark your calendars for February 6, 2012

by: desmoinesdem

Fri Jul 09, 2010 at 16:48:13 PM CDT

Although we are unlikely to have real competition on the Democratic side in 2012, it's good precedent to start the presidential nominating process in February rather than January. Having to knock on doors and phonebank between Christmas 2007 and New Year's Day 2008 was insane.

The big question is how many states will try to jump ahead of the early states. The DNC rules committee recommends that states violating the proposed calendar would lose half of their delegates. The Republican Party adopted similar sanctions before the 2008 campaign, which didn't deter Florida and Michigan from holding their primaries "too early."

The 2010 Iowa caucuses were held on a Saturday afternoon, but off-year caucuses always have light attendance. A Saturday afternoon caucus in a presidential year was never likely, because observant Jews would be unable to participate.

I would like to see more reforms to the Iowa Democratic caucus process, including an absentee ballot option for shift workers who can't get the night off or voters who are housebound. In Maine, Democrats can participate in the caucuses by absentee ballot.

Gingrich to train Republican candidates next week in Des Moines

by: desmoinesdem

Wed Jul 07, 2010 at 10:04:44 AM CDT

I'm guessing Gingrich and Gaylord won't advise candidates to spend 15 percent of the money they raise on chartered private air travel, as American Solutions did in recent years.

Gingrich came to Iowa in late May to raise money for several Republican organizations. Teaching candidates how to run professional campaigns will generate more goodwill among Iowa politicians who could be helpful to Gingrich if he runs for president in 2012. Even if Gingrich doesn't seek the presidency, his influence over Iowa Republicans' policy agenda may increase. American Solutions runs an "online information portal" that "breaks down policy problems and presents solutions lawmakers can utilize to create jobs, improve education and expand American energy." Tax cuts that benefit corporations and wealthy individuals are the centerpiece of Gingrich's action plan.

I wonder if any reporters will ask Gingrich about the unethical practices American Solutions employs to raise money from the conservative grassroots. Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com characterized a phone pitch I received last year as "a clear cut example of fundraising under the guise of a survey ('FRUGGing')". The Marketing Research Association considers FRUGGing unethical because

The use of a poll to conduct fund raising has raised the distrust of the public to a point where they refuse to cooperate with researchers trying to obtain the opinions of any number of issues, including political campaign, and government: federal, state and local research. In a country inundated with telemarketing and direct mail fund raising it is more and more difficult for marketing and opinion researchers to get accurate data.

New thread on the 2012 Iowa Republican caucuses

by: desmoinesdem

Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 10:27:03 AM CDT

Lots of links and speculation are after the jump.

Sarah Palin just made a big mistake

by: desmoinesdem

Fri Jun 04, 2010 at 09:50:39 AM CDT

First thoughts on how this will play out are after the jump.

Links on Newt Gingrich in Iowa

by: desmoinesdem

Thu May 27, 2010 at 11:02:27 AM CDT

IowaPolitics.com covered Gingrich in Davenport and in Cedar Rapids. Lynda Waddington focused on Gingrich's remarks about immigration, which weren't part of his prepared speech. The Des Moines Register has more on what Gingrich told reporters in Des Moines.

I see Gingrich was railing against President Obama's handling of the ongoing disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. I'm not happy about Obama's policy on offshore drilling, but Gingrich has zero credibility to be posturing as an environmentalist. What did Gingrich or his fellow House Republicans ever do to limit offshore drilling or its potential consequences for oceanic and coastal ecosystems?

Although Gingrich pleased Republican crowds with harsh criticism of the current administration, he assured journalists yesterday that Republicans are not the "party of no":

Gingrich said his book, "To Save America: Stopping Obama's Secular Socialist Machine," is two-thirds solutions. "If you look at what Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is doing to design a contract this fall, it's all positive. If you look at Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) work on entitlement reform, it's probably the most comprehensive reform done in modern times."

Republicans should pray that American voters never seriously examine Ryan's work on entitlement reform.

Getting back to Gingrich, I can't take anyone seriously who calls the corporate-friendly Obama a "socialist." As for Gingrich's positive agenda, it's notable that he "declined to specify federal programs he would cut" to pay for the big tax cuts he advocates. And let's take a look at his five major tax cut proposals:

* A one-year, 50 percent reduction in Social Security and Medicare taxes both for employee and employer
* A 100 percent write-off of new equipment
* Abolishing the capital gains tax like China
* Matching the Irish tax rate for corporations at 12.5 percent. He said today U.S. corporations pay the highest taxes in the world with state and federal taxes combained, which he compared to a "backpack with 60 pounds of weight in it."
* Abolishing the death tax permanently

The first point would exacerbate solvency problems facing the Social Security and Medicare funds, which would bolster the case of conservatives who want to dismantle the programs.

Eliminating the capital gains and estate taxes would overwhelmingly benefit the wealthiest Americans while adding significantly to our long-term deficits.

Gingrich's claims about corporate taxes are misleading. Thanks to several common deductions, extensions and loopholes, the effective corporate tax burden in the U.S. is lower than in most other developed economies. In fact, corporations have been paying a declining share of total state taxes in Iowa and across the country for decades.

Gingrich didn't rule out a 2012 presidential bid yesterday, saying he will announce his intentions in February or March 2011. If he does run for president, he will not bypass Iowa. His wife (a Luther College graduate) enjoys spending time here, Gingrich noted. I don't see Gingrich as a strong potential candidate and will be surprised if he runs. If he has presidential ambitions, though, he must run in 2012. By 2016 he will be 73 years old.

I see Gingrich tried to hint that Governor Chet Culver has ethical problems. Gingrich isn't on high moral ground when his American Solutions organization routinely uses fake polls to raise money from the conservative grassroots. Polling expert Mark Blumenthal called the sales pitch from Gingrich's group "a clear cut example of fundraising under the guise of a survey," also known as FRUGGing. The Marketing Research Association considers FRUGGing unethical.

I will say this for Gingrich: at least the guy on his third marriage didn't try to lecture Iowans about family values.

I noticed that Gingrich didn't endorse anyone in the Republican gubernatorial primary. He was also silent about Bob Vander Plaats' plan for the Iowa governor to halt same-sex marriage by executive order. Last year Vander Plaats claimed Gingrich was among those who backed his plan.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

Iowa likely to go first again in 2012 presidential race

by: desmoinesdem

Sun May 23, 2010 at 08:44:03 AM CDT

The Republican National Committee has moved toward a similar calendar in 2012, with the same four states allowed to schedule primaries or caucuses in February, and all other states allowed to go beginning March 1. The final calendar may not reflect the RNC's wishes, though; some states may try to jump ahead the way Florida and Michigan did in 2008.

I suspect Iowa's representatives will have to fight hard to maintain our early position for the 2016 campaign. Democrats in several larger states resent the outsized influence of Iowa and New Hampshire, which are small and predominantly white. The calendar doesn't matter much on the Democratic side for 2012, because it's unlikely anyone will challenge Barack Obama for the nomination, but the next cycle will certainly be competitive, whether or not Obama wins a second term.

New thread on the 2012 Iowa Republican caucuses

by: desmoinesdem

Fri May 14, 2010 at 10:08:09 AM CDT

So, Iowa will continue to be a frequent travel stop for Republicans considering a presidential bid. It's been six months since I last discussed the prospects of likely challengers to President Obama in Iowa. New speculation is after the jump.

We don't need budget advice from Tim Pawlenty

by: desmoinesdem

Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 08:11:41 AM CDT

Pawlenty's "economic bill of rights" includes requiring Congress to balance the budget every year. Freezing or reducing federal spending every time revenue drops is great if you like turning recessions into depressions, but basic economic facts won't stop Pawlenty from pandering to the "Party of Hoover" set. I wonder whether Pawlenty's proposed balanced budget amendment still includes "exceptions for war, natural disasters and other emergencies."

Pawlenty also wants line-item veto powers for the president. The U.S. Supreme Court has already ruled that unconstitutional at the federal level, and it's unlikely Congress would ever approve a constitutional amendment on this matter.

In addition, Pawlenty favors extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. Those tax cuts didn't prevent the most severe economic recession since World War II, but they did manage to massively increase our national debt and deficit while delivering most of the benefits to the top few percent of the population.

But wait, there's more to Pawlenty's wish list: "He also called for requiring a supermajority of Congress to raise taxes or the debt ceiling." Unfortunately, that would exacerbate our budget problems. When the Pew Center on the States examined state fiscal problems last year, a common feature of the states deemed "most like California" was a supermajority requirement for tax increases or budget decisions.

By the way, Iowa received higher overall marks than Minnesota in that Pew Center on the States report, which looked at six indicators to determine each state's fiscal health.

Speaking to the Iowans for Tax Relief crowd, Pawlenty bragged about getting Minnesota out of the top 10 states for taxes but glossed over other aspects of his record as governor. Iowa Republicans have hammered Democrats for supposedly "overspending," even though our state leaders have kept our budget balanced without depleting our state's reserve accounts. What would they say if they knew about Pawlenty's record?

During Pawlenty's first year as governor, the state drew down its reserves and relied too heavily on one-time revenue to address its budget problem.  As a result, the state lost its Aaa bond rating from Moody's Investors Service; the state has yet to regain its Aaa rating from Moody's.

The 2009 report of the bi-partisan Minnesota Budget Trends Study Commission has recommended that the state build up its budget reserves and cash flow account in response to an increasingly unstable revenue outlook.  All members of the Commission, including the five appointed by Governor Pawlenty, endorsed this recommendation.

Pawlenty and state legislators couldn't agree on an approach to balance the Minnesota budget. As a result, last year "Minnesota's [projected] budget gap was the largest in the nation on a per capita basis." Pawlenty can bash President Obama, but his state desperately needed the roughly $2.6 billion it received through the federal stimulus bill to help cover the shortfall. Even with the stimulus money, Minnesota was still billions of dollars short. So, in addition to some spending cuts, Pawlenty proposed "a bond issue that would be paid for by existing and forecast revenues from the tobacco settlement-a one-time fix disliked by some because it aimed to use long-term borrowing to pay for current state operations."

To be clear: Pawlenty wanted the state of Minnesota to borrow money to pay its bills. In contrast, Iowa's state borrowing program (I-JOBS) is funding capital investments in infrastructure. Last summer, Iowans for Tax Relief in effect ran the Republican campaign for a special election in Iowa House district 90. During that campaign, the Republican candidate made false and misleading claims about Iowa's state budget and borrowing. How ironic that the Iowans for Tax Relief crowd gave a standing ovation to a panderer with a much worse record of fiscal management.

Not only did Pawlenty want Minnesota to borrow money to pay its bills, he also decided that underfunding local governments and forcing them to draw down their own reserves was a good way to control spending for the 2010-2011 budget period. Yes, Pawlenty decided in 2009 that cutting aid to local governments by hundreds of millions of dollars was a good way to balance the state budget:

"Many [cities], if not all, have reserve funds, or rainy day funds, and they should use them," Pawlenty said.

He also talked of the option cities have of raising property taxes to make up for any LGA [local government aid] cuts.

One of the Republican talking points against Iowa Governor Chet Culver is that his midyear budget cuts supposedly forced local governments to raise property taxes. Yet Pawlenty gets a free pass from his Iowa Republican friends. Culver's across-the-board budget cut last October wasn't popular, but it did keep state government from overspending. In contrast, late last year Minnesota's cash flow was so poor that state officials considered short-term borrowing to meet budget obligations.

"It's a bad sign," said former state Finance Commissioner Peggy Ingison, now chief financial officer with Minneapolis public schools. "It signals you didn't have good fiscal discipline."

Minnesota has muddled through without borrowing money to pay bills so far, but prospects for later this year are dicey:

State budget officials updated lawmakers [April 12] on Minnesota's precarious cash-flow situation. They all but ruled out short-term borrowing for the 2010 budget year that ends June 30.

Budget director Jim Schowalter says "deep cash problems" loom for the 2011 fiscal year. Barring law changes, spending cuts and upticks in revenue, he says the state might have to take out short-term loans to meet its obligations.

The Minnesota Budget Bites blog takes a more detailed look at the state's "troublesome" picture for fiscal year 2011. BulliedPulpit posted a good rebuttal of "TPawnomics" at MN Progressive Project.

The last thing our country needs is budget advice from Tim Pawlenty.  

Terry Branstad news roundup

by: desmoinesdem

Wed Mar 31, 2010 at 08:44:24 AM CDT

Weekend open thread: off-year caucus edition

by: desmoinesdem

Sat Jan 23, 2010 at 16:14:39 PM CST

Looking around the multi-purpose room at Clive Elementary School today, I could not believe that 293 caucus-goers, plus a bunch of observers and media, squeezed in there on January 3, 2008. That was insane. Today only eight Democrats showed up in Windsor Heights 2 today, and that was more than the number who showed up in Windsor Heights 1 and 3.

One woman at my caucus brought a flier for Senate candidate Roxanne Conlin encouraging people to sign up to receive text messages from the campaign. They're asking Democrats to send a text message to 64336 indicating their most important issue for 2010 (text A for jobs, B for health care, C for the environment, D for energy, E for education, and F to share some other issue). Then the campaign has your cell phone number and knows what you're especially interested in.

I get the sense that the Republican caucuses were more lively today because of the contested primaries for governor and Congress (in IA-02 and IA-03). At some caucuses, supporters have a chance to speak on behalf of their favorite candidates. Also, the campaigns have an interest in getting their supporters elected as delegates to county conventions, and later to district conventions, in case no one gets 35 percent of the vote in the June primary. (Ed Fallon's gubernatorial campaign urged its supporters to attend the 2006 off-year caucuses for that reason.) With five Republicans competing for the chance to face Leonard Boswell, the GOP primary in IA-03 could easily be decided at a district convention. That's how Steve King won the Republican nomination for IA-05 in 2002.

The floor is yours.

Events coming up this weekend and next week

by: desmoinesdem

Thu Jan 21, 2010 at 07:00:00 AM CST

Some non-profit advocacy organizations have drafted resolutions for supporters to offer at their precinct caucuses. If adopted, these resolutions will be forwarded to the county platform committee. For example, 1000 Friends of Iowa is encouraging supporters to offer this resolution on responsible land use.

I noticed some job listings and other helpful information in the Iowa Environmental Council's electronic newsletter.

Value Chain Partnerships, an "Iowa-based network for food and agriculture working groups," has a new website: www.valuechains.org.

The Environmental Law & Policy Center (ELPC) is hiring "a Policy Advocate to work in our Des Moines office to promote clean energy, clean water and conservation projects in Iowa. [...] For more information, visit http://elpc.org/category/jobs#... or email Andrew Snow at asnow@elpc.org. Application Deadline is Jan. 30, 2010.

Plains Justice is hiring "a Resource Director who will report to the CEO and work co-operatively with the Board, attorneys and other staff and volunteers to raise, manage and evaluate effective use of financial resources. Demonstrated fundraising success required. [...] Contact info@plainsjustice.org for detailed job description. No phone calls please."

There's a position open for an "Iowa Great Lakes Watershed Coordinator," who "will work in Spirit Lake, Iowa, to manage and coordinate the implementation of the objectives of a water quality conservation project and activities, conservation planning and application of practices, information and education and other related activities essential to the district and NRCS." Application Deadline: January 26, 2010. For a complete job description, salary, hiring requirements, and how to apply, go to http://cleanwateralliance.net/...

The Environmental Working Group (EWG) is hiring someone to support its Upper Mississippi River project. "Successful candidates will have relevant academic training in the natural, agricultural or social sciences and experience in environmental advocacy. The position is located in Ames, Iowa. A strong commitment to natural resource conservation, environmental protection, and public health is essential. To apply, submit a cover letter and resume to employment@ewg.org.  For more information and a job description visit http://www.ewg.org/jobs."

Calling high school seniors: Keep Iowa Beautiful is offering up to four $500 scholarships. "Students across Iowa enrolling in an Iowa college or university to major in community enhancement or environmental areas of study are eligible. Students can download the application on-line at http://www.keepiowabeautiful.c... Deadline for application: must be postmarked by February 1, 2010. Please contact the KIB office at 515-323-6507 with any questions."

Details about events coming up in the next ten days are after the jump.

Weekend open thread with events coming up this week

by: desmoinesdem

Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 07:22:30 AM CST

Some non-profit advocacy organizations have drafted resolutions for supporters to offer at their precinct caucuses. If adopted, these resolutions will be forwarded to the county platform committee. For example, 1000 Friends of Iowa is encouraging supporters to offer this resolution on responsible land use.

This thread is for discussing anything on your mind this weekend.

There are Martin Luther King Jr. remembrances going on in many Iowa cities today and tomorrow; check your local news outlet for details. To mark King's birthday, Democratic Senate candidate Bob Krause pledged to develop "a comprehensive strategy for alleviating the Iowa incarceration disparity," in light of the fact that "Iowa has a per capita incarceration rate for blacks that is fourteen times the incarceration rate for whites."

I appreciated this letter to the editor by Frank McCammond of Redfield, which the Des Moines Register published on January 15:

Marian Riggs Gelb's Jan. 3 guest column ("Protect Iowa's Liquid Gems") calls for thank-you notes to the Iowa Department of Natural Resources for designating a few streams in northeast Iowa for protection as "outstanding waters."

It was a nice suggestion. However, where do I write the note about letting the rest of the state's river systems be turned into open sewers by the farm and livestock interests and by towns that won't fix their sewage systems?

(Gelb's guest column is here, and the Iowa Environmental Council has more information on the "outstanding Iowa waters" designation here.)

After the jump I've posted more about events coming up this week. Roxanne Conlin began her 99-county tour last week, but I couldn't find any event details or calendar on her campaign website.

UPDATE: Duh! Forgot Johnson County's special election on Tuesday. Go vote for Janelle Rettig for county supervisor. John Deeth has been providing great coverage of the race at his blog. Lori Cardella is like school in the summertime--no class.

Year in review: Iowa politics in 2009 (part 2)

by: desmoinesdem

Fri Jan 08, 2010 at 14:13:59 PM CST

Hot topics on this blog during the second half of the year included the governor's race, the special election in Iowa House district 90, candidates announcing plans to run for the state legislature next year, the growing number of Republicans ready to challenge Representative Leonard Boswell, state budget constraints, and a scandal involving the tax credit for film-making.

Year in review: Iowa politics in 2009 (part 1)

by: desmoinesdem

Fri Jan 08, 2010 at 08:08:56 AM CST

The governor's race heated up, state revenues melted down, key bills lived and died during the legislative session, and the Iowa Supreme Court's unanimous ruling in Varnum v Brien became one of this state's major events of the decade.

After the jump I've posted links to Bleeding Heartland's coverage of Iowa politics from January through June 2009. Any comments about the year that passed are welcome in this thread.

Although I wrote a lot of posts last year, there were many important stories I didn't manage to cover. I recommend reading Iowa Independent's compilation of "Iowa's most overlooked and under reported stories of 2009," as well as that blog's review of "stories that will continue to impact Iowa in 2010."

Year in review: national politics in 2009 (part 2)

by: desmoinesdem

Thu Jan 07, 2010 at 14:56:38 PM CST

Year in review: national politics in 2009 (part 1)

by: desmoinesdem

Thu Jan 07, 2010 at 07:52:32 AM CST

One thing struck me while compiling this post: on all of the House bills I covered here during 2009, Democrats Leonard Boswell, Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack voted the same way. That was a big change from 2007 and 2008, when Blue Dog Boswell voted with Republicans and against the majority of the Democratic caucus on many key bills.

No federal policy issue inspired more posts last year than health care reform. Rereading my earlier, guardedly hopeful pieces was depressing in light of the mess the health care reform bill has become. I was never optimistic about getting a strong public health insurance option through Congress, but I thought we had a chance to pass a very good bill. If I had anticipated the magnitude of the Democratic sellout on so many aspects of reform in addition to the public option, I wouldn't have spent so many hours writing about this issue. I can't say I wasn't warned (and warned), though.

Links to stories from January through June 2009 are after the jump. Any thoughts about last year's political events are welcome in this thread.

Political journalists, don't feed into Steve King's games

by: desmoinesdem

Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 20:42:18 PM CST

Hayworth observed today,

Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo, who King has noted is essentially his twin, ran for president in 2008. Why shouldn't Steve King?

Tancredo's presidential bid didn't even last until the Iowa caucuses. He saw the writing on the wall and dropped out in December 2007. He then endorsed one of the leading candidates, Mitt Romney, while King went with the laughable Fred Thompson (after flirting with Romney).

A short-lived presidential campaign by King wouldn't merely be a waste of time like Tancredo's was. It would give other contenders another reason to skip Iowa, the way Democratic candidates bypassed the 1992 caucuses because Tom Harkin ran for president.

King's not going to deprive Iowa Republicans of a major role in selecting the 2012 nominee. Presidential campaigns bring lots of money to Iowa cities, and so do media organizations in the runup to the caucuses. Presidential candidates also give money to the Republican Party of Iowa and its statehouse candidates. King will enjoy having several candidates compete for his endorsement.

There are plenty of other good questions journalists could ask King. For instance, why does he keep claiming the House health care reform bill would fund abortions? The fact is, the House bill already contains language similar to the Hyde amendment (banning public funds for abortions) and will probably reduce private insurance coverage for abortions as well.