Open thread and links on the Republican race for governor (updated)

by: desmoinesdem

Sat Jul 25, 2009 at 14:00:00 PM CDT

I didn't attend this week's IowaPolitics.com forum featuring five possible Republican candidates for governor (Bob Vander Plaats, Chris Rants, Christian Fong, Jerry Behn and Rod Roberts). Iowa Politics coverage is here. Tom Beaumont of the Des Moines Register emphasized the candidates' comments on capital punishment and the smoking ban, even though they spent most of the forum talking about economic issues like taxes and spending.

The Register's Kathie Obradovich thought Fong did well and wasn't impressed by Behn. I was more interested to learn from her column this week that central Iowa business Republicans including Doug Gross are still hunting for a gubernatorial candidate. They are conducting focus groups before the mystery candidate announces.

It's long been known that the GOP business elite didn't think Bob Vander Plaats or Chris Rants could beat Culver, but there was some speculation that they might unite behind Fong. This week Fong's campaign announced raising $100,000 in three weeks (checks in hand, not pledges), but Gross and his allies in the Iowa First Foundation are not yet sold. I wonder which candidates they are testing with focus groups. Former Governor Terry Branstad is the obvious choice. Maybe also former State Senator Jeff Lamberti?

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

UPDATE: Looks like some Republicans who want Rants out of the race leaked a story to Jason Clayworth:

Rep. Christopher Rants, a Republican candidate for governor and outspoken critic of Gov. Chet Culver's handling of the state budget, left his peers in roughly $200,000 of debt after the 2008 elections.

Rants, of Sioux City, was House Republican leader during the time the debt was racked up, but GOP legislators voted him out of the leadership role soon after the November elections. [...]

Rants didn't answer questions about the Majority Fund and didn't return phone calls Friday or Saturday. Instead, he issued a statement e-mailed through a campaign spokeswoman:

"It is my understanding that the House Majority Fund is in good standing with the Republican Party of Iowa and I have heard nothing to the contrary," Rants wrote in the e-mail.

The House Majority Fund is one of nine funds overseen by the Republican Party of Iowa. Democrats have similar accounts.

Unlike individual candidate campaign reports, Iowa law does not require the parties to disclose the transactions broken down by each account. Instead, the parties are allowed to file reports that cover all of the accounts together.

It means that public records do not show the debt, but several Republican sources confirmed to the Register that the debt was roughly $200,000 when Rants was voted out of his leadership seat.

I don't know why Cityview's Civic Skinny is so bullish on Rants. I see no path to the GOP nomination for him, and certainly no chance for him to beat Culver.

Early Odds on the Republican Race for Governor

by: American007

Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 22:27:57 PM CDT

Today, the right-leaning news aggregator The Bean Walker ran a headline: THE CAMPAIGN KICKS OFF TODAY. The link and reference refer to a GOP fundraiser in Sac County this morning that brought together four likely candidates for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. Those men are Rep. (and former Speaker of the House) Chris Rants of Sioux City; 2006 Lt. Governor candidate Bob Vander Plaats of Sioux City;Rep. Rob Roberts of Carroll; and Sen. Jerry Behn of Boone.

While the Republican primary is still months away, this unofficial first step on the long road to the nomination seems a good place to start with some early odds on the eventual winner.

Rep. Chris Rants (R-Sioux City)     3:1

Rants is the Hillary Clinton of this race. He's been a figurehead and a lightning rod within the party for almost a decade. He served as Speaker of the House during the Vilsack years, from 2002 until his party's ouster in 2007. In fact, many within the party still blame him for that defeat--even though 2006 was such a realignment that it would have been hard for the party do much better than it did under any circumstances. Much like Ms. Clinton, Rants is highly polarizing figure who has a reputation for having a "bulldozer" style of leadership, with little time or tact for those who stand in his way. Also, like Hillary, he is going to have to learn to deal with media and pundits who are less than cordial.

(The best analysis of his candidacy comes from this piece in Cityview's Civic Skinny column. It is a must read.)

Rants 2010 candidacy seems based on what Craig Robinson at the Iowa Republican calls "a kinder, gentler Chris Rants".  According to O. Kay Henderson's liveblog of the Sac County event, Rants primary focus in the campaign is going to be economic and business issues; somewhat of a departure from his rivals. 

Analysis:  Rants is well positioned in the race to become the choice of Republicans who are turned off by Bob Vander Plaats but are hesitant to embrace a less-conservative choice. He also has a fat rolodex of fundraising contacts and a long list of favors to call in. He's in it to win it.

Bob Vander Plaats     3:1

Vander Plaats, the 2006 Lt. Governor candidate and primary candidate in his own right in 2002 and 2006, has been to the political wilderness and back several rimes. His supporters believe, however, that the third time around is the charm.

Borne aloft by the twin archangels of Iowa conservativism Steve Deace and Mike Huckabee, Vander Plaats' "plaatform" is straight-line social conservative. His primary issue thus far is putting an end to same-sex marriage rights as granted by Varnum v. Brien.  However, reactions to his plan to do so by issuing an executive order have been extremely negative outside of his core group of supporters. Many believe that his plan is patently unconstitutional. 

Analysis: Vander Plaats appeals to the basest parts of the Republican base. However, among that segment of the party he enjoys fervent, dedicated support. Unless the more moderate elements of the Republican Party can grasp the reins, Vander Plaats remains a strong contender.

Unknown Moderate     3:1

It's an open secret that there is a sizable contingent of the Republican Party that isn't happy with the current crop of candidates. This shadowy group of mostly moderates, old-money and business Republicans has been candidate shopping lately. Headed by favorite so-con punching bag (and 2002 candidate for Governor) Doug Gross, this faction has been talking to some unconventional potential candidates. Among the names being talked about: Vermeer CEO Mary Andringa, Dubuque University president Jeff Bullock, Generation Iowa Commission vice-chair Christian Fong, Farm Bureau president Craig Lang, Jeff Lamberti, Marianette Miller-Meeks and even Fmr. Gov. Terry Branstad.

The platform for such a candidate is seen through a glass darkly, but is sure to run to to the left of Rants and far to the left of Vander Plaats--a center-right agenda, with an emphasis on economic/budget/tax issues over traditional so-con fare.

Analysis: It remains to be seen who will emerge as the center-right option in this race, although Gross has promised to find a candidate by Septmber. What is certain, however, is that that candidate will enjoy significant financial and institutional support from the faction of the party that doesn't want to see the race wasted on a quixotic Vander Plaats run. In the absence of more information, I give Rants, Vander Plaats and the moderate candidate the same chances.

Culver's campaign needs to watch that burn rate

by: desmoinesdem

Tue Jun 09, 2009 at 19:53:24 PM CDT

"We are gearing up," Culver said. "You'll see a lot of movement in terms of fundraising efforts. [...]."

Asked if he had more than the $1.5 million in the bank than his campaign finance reports showed he had in January, Culver said: "We're doing extremely well on fundraising. The response has been overwhelmingly supportive. It's been very gratifying to know that so many of my supporters across the state continue to have complete confidence in my ability to lead this state."

The Des Moines Register reported on June 3,

"I am going to be cranking up our political operation," Culver said recently. "I'm excited about it. I love campaigning."

Culver brought John Kirincich, a national policy and political aide, into the governor's office as its chief operating officer. The former chief of staff in the U.S. House is expected to play a key role in Culver's campaign. [...]

He also plans to move his campaign operation by early July from the small office at 13th and Locust streets in Des Moines, occupied by his campaign finance and political staff now, into larger space closer to the Capitol.

"We're going to have a very capable team," Culver said. "I'm already assembling that team of talented political advisers. We're going to be renting office space and raising money to run a very competitive re-election campaign."

I'm all for hiring good staffers and giving them a decent office, but I hope the governor's campaign will not spend too much money this year. In 2008 Culver's campaign raised about $1 million but spent $550,000.

Some of the potential Republican challengers to Culver, such as former State Senator Jeff Lamberti, have the potential to raise large amounts of money. In addition, the Republican nominee may receive lots of out-of-state contributions from opponents of same-sex marriage.

Meanwhile, organized labor interests probably will not give Culver as much money next year as they did during his 2006 campaign, because of lingering bad feelings over the governor's veto of a collective-bargaining bill in 2008.

I still think the governor's in a strong position going into his re-election campaign, but I would hate to see him burn through lots of money in 2009 and then face a Republican who's able to match his spending.