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Bleeding Heartland
It's what plants crave.
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Mike Huckabee
Thu May 10, 2012 at 17:32:17 PM CDT
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So what if the next Iowa caucuses are nearly four years away? I'm on Public Policy Polling's wavelength: 2016 Iowa caucus polling is interesting, even if it doesn't mean much now.
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Thu Dec 15, 2011 at 18:21:08 PM CST
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Seven Republican candidates take the stage tonight as Fox News and the Iowa GOP co-host a presidential debate in Sioux City. I'll be live-blogging after the jump, where I've also posted some recent news about the race in Iowa.
UPDATE: Scroll down for the live-blog.
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Tue Nov 08, 2011 at 08:58:25 AM CST
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Today's forecast calls for rain and cold temperatures in Linn County as Iowa Senate district 18 voters determine whether the Senate will remain Democratic-controlled for the 2012 session or deadlocked at 25-25. The weather doesn't seem bad enough to be a significant factor, but if it does keep some voters home, that's probably good news for Democrat Liz Mathis. She continues to lead Republican Cindy Golding in early voting.
The latest absentee ballot numbers and other news clips from the special election campaign are after the jump.
UPDATE: New absentee numbers for Senate district 18 are below.
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Sat Aug 13, 2011 at 09:42:46 AM CDT
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The Republican Party of Iowa gets its first bite at the apple today, raking in money at the Ames straw poll event. Six presidential candidates who paid for space at the venue will speak to the crowd, along with five GOP elected officials and state party chairman Matt Strawn. I've posted the speaking schedule below and will update this post throughout the day.
Nine candidates will appear on the straw poll ballot: the eight who debated Thursday night plus Representative Thad McCotter of Michigan. Voting closes at 4 pm, but it may take Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz a long time to tabulate results because of the large number of expected write-ins. Speaking of Schultz, I noticed on the Secretary of State's website yesterday that he has put out only one press release since his embarrassing smackdown of former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman two months ago. The Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board dismissed an ethics complaint that the Iowa Democratic Party filed regarding that press release.
Any comments about the spectacle are welcome in this thread, especially first-person accounts from Bleeding Heartland users who are in Ames today.
Which candidates, if any, will receive fewer votes than write-ins Sarah Palin, Texas Governor Rick Perry or "Rick Parry," the name Stephen Colbert's Super PAC is pushing? I expect McCotter will have a tough day. Don't know who is supporting him besides former Iowa House Speaker Chris Rants, and he doesn't have a huge following in the Iowa GOP anymore, to put it mildly. When McCotter bid for space at the straw poll, he probably wasn't expecting to be left out of the Fox News debate. That plus the lack of time and money he's spent in Iowa puts him at a big disadvantage.
If former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty does better than expected in the straw poll, he will owe thanks to a couple of outside groups. The American Petroleum Institute's Iowa Energy Forum and Strong America Now both have organizational ties to the Pawlenty campaign. Jennifer Jacobs of the Des Moines Register discussed those connections and the outside groups' work in greater detail here. Four years ago, Mike Huckabee's Ames straw poll effort got a huge assist from Americans for Fair Taxation, helping Huckabee finish a close second to Mitt Romney.
UPDATE: News from the day is after the jump.
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Mon May 23, 2011 at 15:23:31 PM CDT
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After a slow start, the Republican presidential campaign is ratcheting up in Iowa. Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty formally announced his candidacy in Des Moines today. Over the weekend former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain made his campaign official too.
Arguably the biggest news of the past few days was Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels ruling out a campaign. Many Republican insiders had hoped he would beef up the weak declared field against President Barack Obama.
Links, quotes, and analysis are after the jump.
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Sun May 15, 2011 at 11:44:41 AM CDT
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Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee announced on his Fox show last night that he will not be a candidate for president in 2012. I doubt many people were surprised, because Huckabee had done little to lay the groundwork for a campaign. Shortly after Huckabee visited Iowa on a book tour earlier this year, his 2008 state campaign manager Eric Woolson signed on with former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Several other influential Huckabee backers from the last go-around are committed to other candidates as well, including State Senator Kent Sorenson and Wes Enos (now backing Representative Michele Bachmann) and former leaders of the Iowa Family Policy Center (supporting Judge Roy Moore).
It's anyone's guess who will benefit most from Huckabee's absence. Every poll of Iowa Republican caucus-goers I've seen this year has put Huckabee in the lead. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney typically places second in those surveys, but he has signaled that he won't campaign hard in Iowa this year. Judging from how other potential Republican presidential candidates reacted to yesterday's news, Huckabee's endorsement will be highly prized.
This story caught my eye: former Governor Chet Culver is co-chairing the National Popular Vote campaign, which seeks to ensure that the winner of the presidential election is the candidate who receives the most popular votes. Since a U.S. constitutional amendment to abolish the electoral college would never be ratified by enough states, the National Popular Vote campaign is seeking to prevent a repeat of the 2000 presidential election.
I was surprised to see Culver on board. When an Iowa Senate committee approved legislation in 2009 to assign Iowa's electors to the winner of the nationwide popular vote (if enough other states approved the same reform), Culver spoke out against the bill. He warned, "If we require our Electoral College votes to be cast to the winner of the national popular vote, we lose our status as a battleground state." Then Secretary of State Michael Mauro also opposed the bill, saying, "Under this proposal, it is hard to foresee Iowa maintaining its dominant role and expect candidates to spend their final hours campaigning in our state when they will be focused on capturing the popular vote in much larger states." Todd Dorman views the national popular vote campaign as an "end-around" the normal constitutional amendment process, but I support the getting rid of the electoral college by the only practical means available. The president should be the person who receives the most votes.
May is Bike to Work Month, and the Iowa Bicycle Coalition has lots of resources to support recreational or commuter bicyclists. The Urban Country Bicycle blog posted about a study that showed the average worker in this country works 500 hours a year (about two hours per working day) just to pay for their cars.
This is an open thread. What's on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers?
UPDATE: Not surprisingly, Huckabee's Fox News contract played a big part in his decision not to run for president.
Governor Terry Branstad used his weekly press conference on May 16 to urge Republicans candidates to compete in Iowa:
"This is probably going to be the most wide-open, competitive race we've ever had for the Iowa caucuses," Branstad said. "This is a state where a candidate - with hard work and retail politics, going to all 99 counties and meeting with people and answering the questions - this is a state where you can effectively launch a campaign. And it's not too late." [...]
Branstad publicly took issue with [former New Hampshire GOP Chair Fergus] Cullen's editorial, which said, "Iowa Republicans have marginalized themselves to the point where competing in Iowa has become optional."
"Mr. Cullen couldn't be further from the facts," Branstad said. "The truth is that Iowa is a full-spectrum state. I think the primary election that I won last year proves that. I would also point out that the front-runner, Mike Huckabee, made a decision over the weekend, which is momentous. He is not running this time, which means he got the largest block of votes in the Iowa caucuses four years ago and those are up for grabs."
Cullen's editorial is here; I posted excerpts here.
Branstad's close associate Doug Gross, who co-chaired Mitt Romney's 2008 campaign in Iowa, has long warned that the caucuses are not hospitable to moderate candidates. In November 2008, he said, "[W]e've gone so far to the social right in terms of particularly caucus attendees that unless you can meet certain litmus tests, if you will, you have a very difficult time competing in Iowa." But Gross had a very different message today:
I think this is a different year because largely with Huckabee getting out, you'll have multiple social conservatives in the race. As a result of that, they'll divide up a lot of the Caucus vote and there'll be an opportunity for a mainstream Republican to come in and do surprisingly well here. If I were Mitt Romney and I wanted to be the nominee for president, I'd play in Iowa this time because if you win in Iowa this time you have a chance to win the nomination."
Talk radio conservative Steve Deace shared his perspective as an enthusiastic Huck supporter in 2008 who has grown disillusioned more recently: "Ideologically, the Huckabee of today sounds a lot more like the Rod Roberts of 2010 than the [Bob] Vander Plaats of 2010."
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Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 08:33:52 AM CDT
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What happens in Iowa won’t stay in Iowa.
On April 3, 2009, the Iowa Supreme Court unanimously struck down a ban on gay marriages and simultaneously lit a fire under extremists who are willing to say and do anything in order to marginalize or eliminate the third branch of our government.
The nearly 19-month long campaign in Iowa that followed the decision, which was paid for by reckless special interest groups and encouraged by out-of-state politicians, ended on November 2, 2010 when the extremists won, and three justices were voted off the bench.
Throughout the retention campaign, prospective presidential candidates pandered to the Iowa extremists who were attacking the judiciary:
- Rick Santorum traveled across the state to raise the campaign’s profile
- Newt Gingrich said the retention vote would be a “clarion call” to the legal secular elite
- Mitt Romney attacked the nonpartisan group of Iowa justices by calling them members of an “activist court”
- Tim Pawlenty encouraged the radicals to oust the judges if they disagreed with their ruling
- Mike Huckabee campaigned for the most radical gubernatorial candidate who later led the effort to oust the judges
After the dust had settled after the election, it became clear which presidential candidate had been working the hardest to pander to the extremists: Newt Gingrich.
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Thu Jan 20, 2011 at 10:53:33 AM CST
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A third poll this month finds former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee with an early lead among Iowans likely to participate in the 2012 Republican caucuses. James Q. Lynch brought the latest poll to my attention. Strategic National surveyed 410 Republican Iowa caucus-goers on January 18 about their preferences for the next presidential campaign. Huckabee led the field with 27.5 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 18.5 percent, 17.6 percent undecided, 12.4 percent for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, 12.2 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 4.4 percent for former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, 3.7 percent for Representative Michele Bachmann, 1.95 percent for Senator John Thune, just under 1 percent for former Senator Rick Santorum, and 0.24 percent for Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour.
Strategic National has worked for various Republican candidates, but I know nothing about the Michigan-based consulting firm as a pollster. I wonder whether "410 Republican Iowa caucus voting answers" means 410 people who said they will go to the GOP caucuses in 2012, or 410 people who have caucused in the past, or whether some other likely voter screen was used.
Earlier this month, Public Policy Polling and Neighborhood Research both found Huckabee leading Iowa Republican caucus-goers, with Romney in second place.
My hunch is that Huckabee won't run for president in 2012, for reasons I discussed here. Also, his 2008 campaign manager Chip Saltsman just took a job on the Hill, although Saltsman says he would be available if Huckabee runs for president again.
If Huckabee decides to challenge Obama, he'll probably get in the race late. Iowa caucus-goers aren't known for rewarding late starters, but Huckabee already has high name recognition here. In addition, a large portion of GOP caucus-goers have a conservative evangelical orientation. Strategic National's poll found that nearly 68 percent of respondents said the earth was created in six days, and 45 percent agreed that the earth is about 10,000 years old.
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Thu Jan 13, 2011 at 11:57:56 AM CST
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Public Policy Polling's latest Iowa poll finds President Barack Obama ahead of four potential Republican opponents among 1,077 Iowa voters surveyed between January 7 and 9.
Yesterday's release showed Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney as the leading Republicans in the early caucus race for 2012, and if the election were today, those two are the only ones who would give Obama a bigger run for his money than McCain did two years ago. Obama tops Huckabee by a slender 47-43 margin, and Romney by 47-41. But against Newt Gingrich, he would prevail, 51-38, and by 53-37 over Sarah Palin.
The difference comes with independents, who make up a full quarter of the electorate, with Democrats and Republicans splitting the rest evenly. Obama has a significant party- unity advantage against all four Republicans, taking 86-91% of his own party and holding each of them to 67-79% of the GOP. But while he leads with unaffiliated voters by a 49- 34 margin over Gingrich and 49-38 over Palin, he actually trails Huckabee, 41-42, and leads Romney only 40-38. Huckabee and Romney do also hold Obama's crossover support down. While he takes 13% of Republicans to Gingrich's 5% of Democrats and 17% of Republicans to Palin's 6% of Democrats, the split against Huckabee is only 10-7, and 11-9 against Romney.
Click here for the summary and here for the full polling memo (pdf). The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent. PPP found 50 percent of Iowa respondents approved of Obama's performance as president, while 43 percent disapprove. Tom Jensen commented, "When you combine Obama's relative popularity in the state with the GOP field's lack of appeal, it looks like things are going to have to get a lot worse for the President over the next 22 months to send Iowa back into the red column."
I wouldn't be too sure about that. If the unemployment rate stays roughly the same or inches up, and the Republicans nominate someone without high negatives like Gingrich or Palin, Obama will have to fight to hold Iowa. Huckabee has led several early polls of Iowa Republicans, but I think he would have trouble winning the nomination if he runs. If I were a GOP primary voter, I'd be looking for a bland senator or former governor who could essentially campaign as a generic Republican.
Incidentally, Iowa may become crucial to Obama's path to victory in 2012. Reapportionment after the 2010 census took six electoral votes away from states Obama won, and several of the 2008 blue states are likely to go Republican next cycle. One path to exactly 270 votes would have the president winning all the states he carried in 2008 except for Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, and the second Congressional district in Nebraska.
UPDATE: The Cook Political Report lists Iowa as a tossup for the 2012 presidential race. The other states in that category are Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
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Wed Jan 12, 2011 at 08:05:31 AM CST
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Two polls released this week suggest that former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee would be the front-runner in Iowa if he runs for president in 2012. Poll details and some speculation are after the jump.
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Fri Dec 17, 2010 at 16:29:36 PM CST
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The Republican Party of Iowa and Fox News will co-sponsor a presidential debate on August 11, 2011, two days before the party's "straw poll" in Ames. Journalists closely watch the straw poll as a test of Republican candidates' organizational strength in Iowa.
Tying the party fundraiser in Ames with the debate on Fox, an influential outlet for conservatives, will give incentive to candidates campaigning for Iowa's leadoff nominating caucuses to participate in the straw poll, state party Chairman Matt Strawn said.
"I think the opportunity to address not just Iowa caucusgoers and straw poll attendees but to address the nation in a debate from Ames would be something that would be very difficult for a candidate to pass up," Strawn said.
I am trying to think of another example of a news organization scheduling a debate with the express goal of helping promote a political party's fundraiser. But then, Fox isn't your typical news organization. Its parent company donated $1 million to the Republican Governors Association earlier this year. Why not have the Fox News subsidiary lend a helping hand to the Iowa GOP?
Understandably, Iowa Republicans worry that some presidential candidates might take the John McCain/Rudy Giuliani strategy: skip the straw poll and generally avoid campaigning in Iowa. That hurts the state party organization, which relies on the straw poll as a major fundraiser, and Republican legislators, who often receive campaign contributions from presidential candidates' PACs.
Bob Vander Plaats, the Iowa chair of Mike Huckabee's last presidential campaign, recently said he would advise Huckabee to wait until after the straw poll to decide whether to run for president. Huckabee's strong second-place finish in the 2007 straw poll demonstrated that he was a force to be reckoned with in Iowa. Before that event, Mitt Romney was the heavy favorite to win the caucuses. But the straw poll success cost Huckabee's campaign and Americans for Fair Taxation approximately $150,000 each. That's a lot of money to spend to win a news cycle.
Speaking to the Des Moines Register's Thomas Beaumont, Giuliani's former campaign manager Mike Duhaime predicted that some candidates would participate in the Fox News debate but not the straw poll, because of how costly it is to compete seriously in the straw poll. Strawn said Fox News and the Iowa GOP haven't determined yet whether candidates would be barred from the debate if they didn't plan to participate in the straw poll.
Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.
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Thu Dec 09, 2010 at 10:51:04 AM CST
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The House of Representatives approved the DREAM Act on December 8 by a vote of 216 to 198. The bill would give some undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children a path to citizenship. Eligible people could obtain "conditional" status for six years provided they have no criminal record, have lived in the country for at least five years, and have graduated from high school or received a GED. To maintain legal status, people would have to pass a criminal background check and demonstrate that they have either attended college or served in the military for at least two years. Although 38 House Democrats opposed the DREAM Act yesterday, all three Iowa Democrats (Bruce Braley, Dave Loebsack and Leonard Boswell) voted for it. Only eight House Republicans crossed party lines to support this bill, and those did not include Tom Latham or Steve King. In recent weeks, King has slammed the DREAM Act as a "multi-billion dollar amnesty nightmare."
The White House supports the DREAM Act, and the administration has mostly exempted students even as deportations of undocumented immigrants increased since President Barack Obama took office. However, Obama didn't insist on passage of the DREAM Act as part of his tax cut deal with Congressional Republican leaders. The Senate is expected to vote on the House version of this bill next week. Although some Republicans support the DREAM Act, including Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana, I would be surprised if it passes during the lame duck session.
Incidentally, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has supported legislation like the DREAM Act in the last, but last week he said he opposed current bill before Congress. He must be aware that if he runs for president again, he'll need to win over GOP primary voters and caucus-goers who overwhelmingly oppose what conservatives call "amnesty."
Also on December 8, the House voted on the Seniors Protection Act. According to a statement from Braley's office, that bill "would have provided a one-time $250 payment to seniors on Social Security, Supplemental Security Income (SSI), railroad retirement, and veterans disability compensation or pension benefits due to the lack of a cost-of-living adjustment for 2011 (COLA)." The bill received 254 votes in favor and 153 votes against but still failed, because it was brought to the House floor under a suspension of the rules, which requires a two-thirds vote to pass. The Iowa delegation again split on party lines.
Meanwhile, the offices of Representatives Braley, Loebsack and Boswell still have not responded to my requests for comment on Obama's tax deal with Republicans. On December 9 the House Democratic caucus reportedly voted against bringing the deal to the floor, but that was a non-binding resolution. The bill could still pass with a minority of Democratic votes and a majority of Republicans. On the Senate side, Republican Chuck Grassley says the deal is better than doing nothing. Democrat Tom Harkin says he is working behind the scenes to improve the deal and is inclined to vote no without some changes. However, even as he criticized Obama's negotiating strategy, Harkin didn't rule out supporting the deal until he sees the final package.
UPDATE: Braley released this noncommittal statement on December 9:
"As the tax cut package takes shape, I want to reiterate my support for a tax cut extension for every American family on incomes up to $250,000. I continue to fight for an extension of unemployment benefits, especially during the holiday season. I remain extremely concerned that extending Bush's tax cuts to the wealthiest 2% of Americans will explode the deficit."
"I continue to fight to cut taxes for Iowa's families and I am working to ensure our future generations are not saddled with extreme debt. I look forward to reading the legislative language produced on the bill before making a final decision on these important issues."
SECOND UPDATE: Steve King talked to the Sioux City Journal's Bret Hayworth:
King said he dislikes that the tax cuts are only extended for two years. He said he wouldn't go to the mat to extend the tax cuts permanently, but that they should be at a minimum extended five years so people sitting on capital to invest will know their tax liabilities for a longer period.
Further, King doesn't like the unemployment benefits extension, since he said that only encourages people to not work and continue to receive those dollars.
THIRD UPDATE: Loebsack's office says he "has consistently supported extending the middle-class tax cuts. He is also pleased to see that an extension of emergency unemployment benefits and additional tax cuts for hard-working families are included, along with potential extensions of renewable energy tax credits. He is actively working to improve the proposal as it develops in order to ensure that the best interests of Iowans are being served."
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Fri Nov 26, 2010 at 12:00:00 PM CST
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Time with extended family means less time for blogging, so I'm posting the weekend open thread early. Here are some links to get the conversation going.
Rural voters were a crucial factor helping Republicans retake the U.S. House. Of the 125 most rural Congressional districts, Republicans held all 64 seats they had going into the election and flipped 39 Democratic districts (that alone would have been enough to give them a majority). Going into the election, Democrats held 61 of the 125 most rural Congressional districts. Now they hold only 22 of those districts, including IA-01 (Bruce Braley) and IA-02 (Dave Loebsack).
Smart Politics looked at what it calls "Iowa's Schizophrenic 2010 Electorate" and observed, "Never before in the history of Iowa elections have Republicans won a majority of seats in the Iowa House while Democrats won a majority of the Hawkeye State's U.S. House seats."
I listed the Iowa House and Senate Democrats before and after the election, grouped by Congressional district. Bleeding Heartland user American007 created red and blue Iowa maps showing which parties held state House and Senate districts before the election and after.
Fred Karger, a Republican political strategist and gay activist who's exploring a presidential bid, has been running this commercial on the Fox network this week in Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Quad Cities, Mason City, Ames, Burlington and Fort Dodge. Have you seen it? Hard to imagine a strong base of support for Karger in Iowa, but I'm glad a moderate may be running for president on the Republican side.
If Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels runs for president in 2012, some Iowa Republicans will not forgive him for supporting merit-based judicial selection in his state.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee said all the "right" things about Iowa judges during his recent Des Moines visit. But this week Huckabee described the controversial searches of airline passengers as a "humiliating and degrading, totally unconstitutional, intrusion of their privacy." Uh oh! Social conservatives don't typically acknowledge that there is a constitutional right to privacy. That dreaded "penumbra" underlies U.S. Supreme Court rulings affirming reproductive rights.
I learned this week that New Hampshire has some elected Republican officias who support marriage equality. It's not clear whether there are enough of them to stop large GOP majorities from repealing same-sex marriage rights in that state. I wonder when (if ever) a current Republican office-holder in Iowa will defend equality.
Iowa First Lady Mari Culver says she accomplished what she set out to do during her husband's term as governor, and her kids are excited to be moving back to their West Des Moines home full-time.
What's on your mind this holiday weekend?
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Sat Nov 20, 2010 at 17:33:44 PM CST
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What's on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers?
Past and perhaps future presidential candidate Mike Huckabee is in Des Moines tonight Sunday, headlining the Iowa Family Policy Center's annual fundraiser. Other speakers include WHO talk radio personality Steve Deace and Iowa Family Policy Center Action president Chuck Hurley.
The big event is also Bob Vander Plaats' debut as "president and chief executive officer of an umbrella group that includes the Iowa Family Policy Center, Marriage Matters and their political action committee." The Iowa Family Policy Center endorsed Vander Plaats for governor. Huckabee came to Iowa to campaign for Vander Plaats, who chaired his successful Iowa caucus campaign in 2008.
Vander Plaats told journalists this week that his umbrella group will mobilize social conservatives and endorse a candidate for the upcoming Iowa caucus campaign. If Huckabee stays out of the presidential race, several campaigns will work hard to win the approval of Vander Plaats, Hurley and Deace. If Huckabee runs again, other candidates may as well not waste their time.
I got a robocall from Huckabee Thursday or Friday of this week, but I don't know whether it was a fundraising call or an attempt to identify supporters. The call ended quickly after I answered "no" to the question, "Do you consider yourself pro-life?"
I'm headed to a friend's birthday party tonight as soon as my version of Jewish noodle kugel comes out of the oven for the potluck. Quite a few Branstad voters will be in attendance (including the birthday girl), and I'm determined not to get into any arguments.
My Twitter feed is full of Republicans freaking out about Governor Chet Culver's deal with AFSCME. A 2 percent raise for state employees, followed by a 1 percent raise, is far from excessive. Republican complaints about Culver's lack of "courtesy" amuse me. It wasn't too polite of Terry Branstad to spend millions of dollars on tv ads lying about I-JOBS and how Culver managed the state's finances.
UPDATE: To clarify, the proposed contract with AFSCME involves a 2 percent across the board salary increase starting July 1, 2011, a 1 percent across the board salary increase starting January 1, 2012, another 2 percent across the board salary increase beginning July 1, 2012, and a 1 percent across the board salary increase starting January 1, 2013.
This is an open thread.
UPDATE: Kay Henderson posted a good liveblog of Huckabee's November 21 press conference and his speech to the Iowa Family Policy Center crowd. The same post links to an audio clip of Huckabee's comments to reporters and covers Vander Plaats' speech to the crowd at the fundraiser.
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Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 10:27:03 AM CDT
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It's time for another look at the Republican presidential contenders' prospects in Iowa. The 2012 cycle may seem like a long way off, but the serious candidates will probably start hiring staff in Iowa before the end of this year. Since the last time Bleeding Heartland covered this ground, several Republicans with presidential ambitions have spoken out on our GOP gubernatorial contest, visited Iowa or scheduled trips here during this fall's campaign.
Lots of links and speculation are after the jump.
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Fri May 14, 2010 at 10:08:09 AM CDT
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The decision won't be final until the Republican National Committee's summer meeting in August, but it appears likely that the Iowa caucuses will remain the first presidential nominating contest in 2012. This week the RNC's Temporary Delegate Selection Committee recommended adopting a rule that would allow only Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada to hold primaries or caucuses before March 6, 2012. Click here to read the rule, which would also require all states that hold nominating contests before April 2010 to award their delegates proportionally, rather than through a winner-take-all system that is typical for the Republican Party.
So, Iowa will continue to be a frequent travel stop for Republicans considering a presidential bid. It's been six months since I last discussed the prospects of likely challengers to President Obama in Iowa. New speculation is after the jump.
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Wed Jan 13, 2010 at 11:47:18 AM CST
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I've been assuming for the past few months that there's no way Bob Vander Plaats can defeat Terry Branstad in this year's Republican gubernatorial primary. Branstad's statewide connections from his four terms as governor and his support from major donors should give him an insurmountable edge, especially in the eastern Iowa counties. While Vander Plaats would have a great shot at winning a caucus or a statewide convention, I didn't see any way he could keep Branstad below 50 percent in the primary, especially with Branstad likely to raise far more money.
I've started to rethink my assumptions as conservative Republicans have spoken out against Branstad.
Everyone knew the Iowa Family Policy Center's political action committee would endorse Vander Plaats at some point, but their statement yesterday went far beyond expressing a preference for Vander Plaats. The IFPC made clear that they will not support Branstad in the general election if he wins the GOP nomination.
Follow me after the jump for more on the IFPC's endorsement and how Vander Plaats could win the primary.
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Fri Jan 08, 2010 at 08:08:56 AM CST
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I expected 2009 to be a relatively quiet year in Iowa politics, but was I ever wrong.
The governor's race heated up, state revenues melted down, key bills lived and died during the legislative session, and the Iowa Supreme Court's unanimous ruling in Varnum v Brien became one of this state's major events of the decade.
After the jump I've posted links to Bleeding Heartland's coverage of Iowa politics from January through June 2009. Any comments about the year that passed are welcome in this thread.
Although I wrote a lot of posts last year, there were many important stories I didn't manage to cover. I recommend reading Iowa Independent's compilation of "Iowa's most overlooked and under reported stories of 2009," as well as that blog's review of "stories that will continue to impact Iowa in 2010."
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Thu Jan 07, 2010 at 07:52:32 AM CST
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It took me a week longer than I anticipated, but I finally finished compiling links to Bleeding Heartland's coverage from last year. This post and part 2, coming later today, include stories on national politics, mostly relating to Congress and Barack Obama's administration. Diaries reviewing Iowa politics in 2009 will come soon.
One thing struck me while compiling this post: on all of the House bills I covered here during 2009, Democrats Leonard Boswell, Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack voted the same way. That was a big change from 2007 and 2008, when Blue Dog Boswell voted with Republicans and against the majority of the Democratic caucus on many key bills.
No federal policy issue inspired more posts last year than health care reform. Rereading my earlier, guardedly hopeful pieces was depressing in light of the mess the health care reform bill has become. I was never optimistic about getting a strong public health insurance option through Congress, but I thought we had a chance to pass a very good bill. If I had anticipated the magnitude of the Democratic sellout on so many aspects of reform in addition to the public option, I wouldn't have spent so many hours writing about this issue. I can't say I wasn't warned (and warned), though.
Links to stories from January through June 2009 are after the jump. Any thoughts about last year's political events are welcome in this thread.
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Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 08:29:00 AM CST
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David Barton, a self-styled constitutional expert who founded the socially conservative WallBuilders organization, has endorsed Bob Vander Plaats for governor:
"Bob Vander Plaats epitomizes the leadership our Founding Fathers envisioned when they stood up for our individual liberties," Barton said in a prepared statement. "He knows that it's the hard work and unfettered creative spirit of individuals made this country and states like Iowa great. He knows that more bureaucracies, more government employees, higher taxes and increased government spending will crush Iowa. And, he'll articulate that message in winning fashion."
Here's some background on Barton's vision for America, chock full of Biblical interpretations supporting right-wing public policies. Barton spoke to the Iowa Christian Alliance this fall (click that link to watch videos). His organization hosts a large annual "ProFamily Legislators Conference."
Barton's endorsement may help Vander Plaats raise money from around the country as well as recruit volunteers in Iowa. Vander Plaats will particularly need financial support from out of state in order to compete with Terry Branstad, who built relationships with many major donors and local activists during his four terms as governor.
I'll be curious to see whether conservative activists looking to "take back the Republican Party" through primaries will focus on Iowa's gubernatorial race in the winter and spring. Vander Plaats already has the backing of former presidential candidate and current Fox TV host Mike Huckabee as well as pop culture icon Chuck Norris. Vander Plaats also was featured on the cover of Focus on the Family's national magazine in November.
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