Bleeding Heartland - SD-18

Where things stand in the Iowa Senate races

desmoinesdem — Wed, 07 Nov 2012 16:51:34 GMT

Democrats are assured of maintaining their majority in the Iowa Senate, with one race headed for a recount and another to be decided in a December 11 special election.
Here's how the Democrats maintained their majority. Of the 24 Senate incumbents not up for re-election this year, thirteen are Democrats:

Daryl Beall
Dennis Black
Joe Bolkcom
Tod Bowman
Bill Dotzler
Bob Dvorsky
Jack Hatch
Rob Hogg
Wally Horn
Matt McCoy
Herman Quirmbach
Amanda Ragan
Joe Seng

Nine Democratic incumbents were re-elected last night:

Tom Courtney (district 44)
Jeff Danielson (district 30)
Dick Dearden (district 16)
Mike Gronstal (district 8)
Pam Jochum (district 50)
Liz Mathis (district 34)
Brian Schoenjahn (district 32)
Steve Sodders (district 36)
Mary Jo Wilhelm (district 26)

Three Democratic candidates won open seats:

Janet Petersen (district 18)
Rich Taylor (district 42)
Rita Hart (district 49)

One Democratic candidate defeated a Republican incumbent:

Chris Brase (district 46)

Total: 26

John Beard has not conceded the open-seat race in Senate district 28. The Iowa Secretary of State's website shows Mike Breitbach ahead by 43 votes, while the Des Moines Register's site shows Breitbach ahead by 37 votes.

I don't know yet whether any provisional ballots remain to be counted. Late-arriving absentee ballots will count as long as they were postmarked by November 5. There will be a recount in Senate district 28.

Recounts did not change the outcome in the two closest Iowa Senate races in 2010.

The results in Senate district 22 do not count because of Senator Pat Ward's untimely death last month. Republicans meet on November 8 to select a nominee to face Democrat Desmund Adams in the December 11 special election. Ward's widower, John Ward, is seeking the nomination, but other candidates are expected to step forward. Republicans have a sizable voter registration advantage in Senate district 22.

Any comments about the Iowa Senate elections are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: I should have mentioned that Merlin Bartz wasn't ready to concede Senate district 26 to Wilhelm last night. I don't see how he can make up a 120-vote margin with late-arriving absentee ballots.

SECOND UPDATE: Bartz conceded on Wednesday but tried to cast a shadow over the outcome.

"I congratulate Sen. Wilhelm on her victory," he said in a news release.
"She ran a stellar campaign and I wish her the best in her service next January."
Bartz said he and his family wanted to thank all his volunteers and supporters.
"We have analyzed the 120 vote margin in conjunction with additional provisional and absentee ballots that are being and may be received and do not believe they would change the outcome and have chosen to not seek a recount," said Bartz.
"I continue to be troubled by the ongoing criminal investigation into voter fraud in Floyd County but do not believe that prolonging the election until the prosecution is finished is in the best interest of the citizens of this district or of this state."

The 10 biggest Iowa political blunders of 2011

desmoinesdem — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 14:54:21 GMT

Let's review the most boneheaded moves from the year in Iowa politics.

This thread is not about wrongheaded policy choices. It may be stupid to cut early childhood education programs, kneecap the state Environmental Protection Commission, or pass an "ag gag" bill that would never survive a court challenge. Yet all of those actions carry potential political benefits, since they appeal to well-funded interest groups or a large group of voters.

My top ten list of Iowa politicians' mistakes is after the jump.
10. The careless banter in the Iowa House chamber between Speaker Pro Tem Jeff Kaufmann, Majority Whip Erik Helland, and Representative Steve Lukan. They didn't realize the microphone near them was switched on when they joked about what Kaufmann called "the crazy, give-a-handgun-to-a-schizophrenic bill." Every politician should know that you always assume every mic is a live mic. The good news is that their conversation tanked chances to pass one of the National Rifle Association's top legislative priorities in Iowa.

9. State Senator Merlin Bartz enforcing an outdated law against his neighbors to avoid paying the full cost of a new fence around his property. Here's a public figure up for re-election in a new Senate district, with a Democratic incumbent and a Democratic voter registration advantage. Yet he generated lots of bad local publicity in order to pursue a claim against neighbors over a construction bill in the $600 to $1,000 range. Not a smart move, cheapskate.

8. The Iowa Democratic Party's foray into hippie-punching by bashing the advocacy group Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement. Even if you don't always agree with Iowa CCI's tactics, how does it help Iowa Democrats to attack a non-profit group with thousands of progressive supporters around the state? The effort looks hypocritical when the state party repeatedly used the "corporations are people" quote against Mitt Romney (see also here). Romney never would have made that comment if Iowa CCI activists hadn't tried to disrupt his speech on the Iowa State Fair soapbox.

7. The State Judicial Nominating Commission passing over women applicants when making a short list for three Iowa Supreme Court vacancies. The commission was working under heightened scrutiny after voters ousted three Supreme Court justices in the 2010 retention elections. Some statehouse Republicans were trying to overhaul the merit-based judicial selection system Iowa has used since the 1960s. Nevertheless, commissioners passed over many experienced women among the 60 Supreme Court applicants. Instead, they sent Governor Terry Branstad a list of eight men and one woman whom the governor would never consider appointing. It looked like an attempt to embarrass Branstad politically, rather than to select a balanced group of highly-qualified potential judges. The upshot is that for the first time since the early 1980s, not a single woman serves on the Iowa Supreme Court.

6. The Iowa legislature failing to act to secure extended unemployment benefits. By passing a simple bill, state representatives and senators could have helped tens of thousands of jobless Iowans qualify for up to $116 million in federal funds. Along with food stamp assistance, unemployment benefits are the most stimulative form of government spending, because recipients spend the extra income immediately on goods and services. Arguably this wasn't a huge political blunder, because the issue received very little media attention. I'm including it on my list anyway, because a lingering weak economy isn't good for any Iowa House or Senate incumbent facing re-election in 2012.

5. Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty's all or nothing bet on the Ames straw poll. His campaign spent big money to rent space outside the venue, buy tickets, and run multiple television and radio commercials statewide this summer. His reward for draining his campaign treasury was a distant third-place showing that undermined his credibility. Pawlenty was out of the presidential race the next day. If he had bypassed the straw poll like Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, he would have had some money to spend in Iowa this fall, and he might have had a turn as the "not Romney" of choice after the decline of Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain.

4. Governor Branstad's line-item veto of the earned income tax credit expansion--twice. It's idiotic to veto a policy that would increase disposable income for hundreds of thousands of working Iowa families. Those taxpayers would spend that extra money, perhaps supporting some of the 200,000 new jobs Branstad has promised to create. (The Iowa Fiscal Partnership makes the case here.) But like I said at the top, this thread isn't about policy substance. I'm including Branstad's line-item vetoes from April and July because politically, blocking the Iowa Senate Democrats' top tax policy priority was not smart. This provision was included in two different bills after difficult negotiations with Iowa House Republicans. Branstad gave Senate Democrats no reason to think he will deal with them in good faith. It may cost him a chance to pass education reform or other legislation he wants next year.

3. Iowa Senate Republicans' failure to capitalize on their chances in the Senate district 18 special election. Branstad handed them a golden opportunity in September. Yes, Democrats recruited a strong candidate in Liz Mathis. Yes, Democrats and allied groups executed a strong early voting effort. Still, how dumb was it for Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley to take a previously planned overseas vacation that kept him out of Iowa for half of the special election campaign? How dumb was it for Senator Bill Dix to mount a leadership challenge that became a distraction when Senate Republicans should have been working together? (Dix didn't even confirm that he had the votes to win before calling the leadership election.) No wonder the Republican early voting effort in Senate district 18 was weak.

2. Christie Vilsack running for Congress against Steve King in the new IA-04, rather than in the district that's the best natural fit for her. Iowa's new map created a perfect opportunity for Vilsack to run in southeast Iowa, where she grew up and lived for most of her adult life. But Democratic party officials wanted her to run against King in order to avoid a primary against three-term Representative Dave Loebsack in the new IA-02. I would rather let the Democratic voters decide. Now Vilsack faces an uphill battle in IA-04, whereas she would have been a strong favorite to hold IA-02 for the next decade. Loebsack has done relatively poorly in southeast Iowa counties he should carry. This fall he has been voting scared, joining Blue Dogs and Republicans more and more often.

Meanwhile, Vilsack's campaign will energize GOP turnout in northwest Iowa strongholds. Assuming Mitt Romney becomes the GOP presidential nominee, thousands of Iowa conservatives who might otherwise have stayed home on election day 2012 have reason to show up to support their hero, Steve King. Longtime Republican power broker Doug Gross made this point on Iowa Public Television last weekend:

I think Christie Vilsack won't have any trouble keeping activists engaged in northwest Iowa which is where it's very important to be a large republican base turnout. So, the irony of this is the fact that they got Christie to run against Steve King who actually energized a lot of the republican base.

1. Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller's slow-motion capitulation to financial giants as leader of the national working group on fraudulent foreclosure practices. For three decades, Miller built a reputation for consumer protection. He has enough law enforcement experience to know that you don't enter settlement negotiations blind, without having investigated the alleged crimes in question. But Miller's negotiators were willing to offer major lenders broad immunity from prosecution over mortgage servicing practices. It made him look like a tool. Compounding the political error, Miller kept promising that a deal was just around the corner, even as the banks upped their demands and attorneys general from several large states abandoned his effort. Fortunately, he is unlikely to deliver any comprehensive settlement.

CORRECTION: The working group Miller leads is negotiating release from civil liability for major lenders (not immunity from criminal prosecution) in exchange for a settlement including a refinancing program and some principal reductions. The release from liability would cover various forms of mortgage servicing fraud, as well as mortgage origination fraud. I still believe that the terms being negotiated are too favorable to the financial institutions, which is one reason several Democratic attorneys general have distanced themselves from the effort. I also remain skeptical that any settlement reached would be adequately enforced. One can only hope Miller proves me wrong about all of the above.

Any relevant thoughts are welcome in this thread.

Cindy Golding still considering Iowa Senate district 48 bid

desmoinesdem — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 00:00:46 GMT

Less than a week after losing the special election in Iowa Senate district 18, Republican Cindy Golding confirmed that she may run for the Iowa Senate next year in the new district 48.
James Q. Lynch reported,

Even as she gets back on track at the farm, investments, property management and non-profit consulting businesses she and her husband, Joe, operate, Golding is being encouraged to get back on the campaign trail.
"I'm getting lots of calls from people asking me to run" in Iowa Senate 48, Golding said. [...]
"So we're regrouping as a family, deciding whether there is enough support to move ahead," she said. "It's not what I want as much as what the people in the district want. You can't do it by yourself."

Senate district 48 covers all of Delaware County, most of Linn County outside Cedar Rapids and its suburbs, part of Jones County (including the towns of Anamosa and Monticello), and a small area in Buchanan County.

Voter registration numbers suggest that this swing district will be competitive in 2012. As of April 2011, Senate district 48 contained 11,553 Democrats, 11,552 Republicans and 15,559 no-party voters.

I don't see Golding as a strong candidate in the GOP primary here, given her loss by a 56-44 margin in Senate district 18. Granted, the Democratic candidate in Senate district 48 (State Representative Nate Willems) doesn't have the star power that helped Liz Mathis in the Cedar Rapids suburbs. But Golding seems unwilling to recognize that her campaign was outworked and out-strategized by Democrats and their allies. The absentee ballots broke overwhelmingly for Mathis in the special election.

Golding appears to view herself as a victim of poor messaging by conservatives who tried to help her:

Golding was annoyed with outside groups "inserted themselves in ways I had no control over ... because of the dynamics of this being the one (seat) that would balance the Senate." [...]
The National Organization for Marriage, The Family Leader and Family Research Council Action campaigned for Golding.
She was uncomfortable about their role.
"There are lots of ways to present your message and some of the most aggressive approaches turn people off," Golding said. Those groups, she added, "turned off Republicans as much as energized Republicans.
"And that's unfortunate, but we could not tell them stop," she said.

That doesn't sound like a winning message with primary voters next spring. Blaming other people for your campaign's failures doesn't come across as gracious.

Meanwhile, Republican griping about Golding began quickly after the special election. The Iowa Republican publisher Craig Robinson portrayed her as an "ungrateful and difficult candidate" in his post-mortem on the Senate district 18 campaign. In Robinson's account, Golding was a complainer who didn't trust the state party and refused to spend her time making phone calls and knocking on doors. He is probably shifting too much blame to Golding in order to downplay the GOP's failure to mobilize voters in a swing suburban district. Still, his megaphone is big enough to make that unflattering image stick with the party establishment.

Dan Zumbach and Brian Cook, both of Delaware County, have announced plans to seek the Republican nomination in Senate district 48. Zumbach is a farmer and former school board member in the West Delaware County Community Schools. Cook sells insurance out of his home in Manchester.

If Cook and Zumbach stay in the race and split the Delaware County vote, Golding may yet have a chance in the GOP primary, but I don't see it happening. She would have been a conservative hero had she won last week's special election. Now every Iowa House-approved bill that Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal blocks will be a reminder of how Golding blew the opportunity Governor Terry Branstad handed Republicans.

Whoever wins the GOP primary, Senate district 48 will be a battleground during the general election campaign. One promising sign for Republicans is that they already have declared candidates in both of the Iowa House districts that make up the new Senate district. High school teacher Quentin Stanerson is seeking the Republican nomination in the new House district 95, which covers a large area in Linn County and part of Buchanan County:

Democrats have a slight voter registration advantage in the new House district 95, but you can't win a seat without a candidate. So far no one has stepped up to the plate to replace Willems, who's running for the Iowa Senate instead of for re-election in this seat.

First-term Republican State Representative Lee Hein will run in the new House district 96, including all of Delaware County and part of Jones County.

Hein defeated Democratic incumbent Ray Zirkelbach in the old House district 31 in 2010. Redistricting had paired him with fellow Republican Brian Moore in the new House district 58. Hein opted to move into the empty district next door. Not only will he avoid a Republican primary in all likelihood, he will enjoy a slight Republican voter registration advantage in House district 96. In contrast, House district 58 tilts strongly to the Democrats.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread.

Iowa Senate district 18: Preliminary post-election analysis

albert — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 12:18:03 GMT

Without a doubt, the superlative early voting effort by Democrats and allied groups is largely responsible for Democrat Liz Mathis' landslide victory over Republican Cindy Golding. Although the results are still unofficial and precinct-level demographics are not yet available, sufficient detail exists to draw some preliminary conclusions from the early reporting.
Early voting

The reported absentee split tells the story, with Mathis garnering 71.56% to Golding's 27.79%. As of 8 Nov, the returned absentees broke down as follows:

3808 Democrat
1796 NP
1998 Republican

Using PPP's estimates of the crossover vote:

She's (Mathis) taking 15% of the GOP vote from Golding, while losing only 9% of the Democratic vote.

the adjusted figures are 3765 Democratic and 2041 Republican. Noting that Golding received only 2106 actual votes by absentee suggests that the independent vote broke overwhelmingly for Mathis, even if PPP's estimates are not accurate for early voting. This supports the early observations made here of not just elevated Dem absentee turnout relative to 2010, but of a robust independent response as a result of Dem efforts, particularly in the precincts that skew younger.

The PPP poll put Mathis at 52% with a 6 pt advantage over Golding. One possibility for the conservative estimate is that perhaps the poll did not capture sufficient younger voters judging by the age breakdown found in the poll's internals. I found the structure of the voter screen problematic, given the importance of early voting in this election.

they pulled a list of voters who had voted in at least one of the last three general elections, and the call script began by asking respondents to "hang up now" if they were not planning to vote on Tuesday.

Voters in the district surely were inundated by GOTV contacts, so it's not difficult to imagine that the response by an early voter to "hang up now if you do not plan to vote on Tuesday" would be to do exactly that, rather than thinking "oh, they must also mean have I already voted?" The precinct-level demographics will ultimately reveal whether Dems and independents enjoyed a boost in under-35 voting relative to 2010. The absolute domination by Mathis of the early NP vote as compared to PPP's estimate of an underwater 45%-50% performance, suggests a significant youth component, the demographic most receptive to her campaign, during early voting. I also suspect that Dems captured a greater share of the crossover vote during early voting, almost certainly better than 15% estimated for total turnout.

As predicted, the GOP fell short of 2010 early voting performance by a considerable amount. Ignoring the small contribution from split Cedar Rapids precincts, the partisan performace relative to 2010 is as follows:

126% Dem
116% NP
68% Rep

Total turnout in this special election is approximately 80% of 2010 turnout. If Dem and NP early voting had tracked 2010 performance, the GOP effort would actually be in line with their 2010 performance as well. This suggests that ascribing the breakdown to "depressed" GOP turnout is perhaps less relevant than crediting the performance of the Dem early voting campaign, which put the election out of reach for Golding.

It is interesting to note that the early voting fraction this time was about one third as compared to one quarter in 2010, while the actual number of early voters is almost the same but with very different partisan distribution. When statistical demographics become available, the question of how to allocate reduced GOP enthusiasm vs unexpectedly high Dem early voting turnout will be answered.

Polling day

Below are the election day results by precinct. The second figure is a more detailed view of the heavily populated area of the district, which includes Marion. Republican Cindy Golding prevailed in the election day match-up 50.95% - 48.36%.

Senate district 18 polling day results

Polling day results in the Cedar Rapids suburbs

There are few surprises. North Marion tends to vote more Republican than South Marion. Hiawatha 1 is routinely more blue than Hiawatha 2, and the same holds for Cedar Rapids 46 vs. Cedar Rapids 47. Robins, Liz Mathis' home precinct, is a Republican stronghold. One could almost say that the overall split reflects the lean of the district, and that was the problem for Cindy Golding. No surprises on Election Day meant no opportunity to overcome the formidable early voting advantage accrued by the Democratic team. The overall partisan split by precinct will be estimated when the precinct-level demographics are available. Unfortunately, election offices are only required to report absentees results by precinct (instead of a central absentee precinct) for gubernatorial and presidential contests.

Iowa Senate district 18 and local election results thread: Liz Mathis wins

desmoinesdem — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 03:41:13 GMT

Any comments on today's election results are welcome in this thread. Polls closed at 9 pm in Iowa, but returns from the special election in Senate district 18 are coming in slowly. I will update this thread later as the outcome becomes clear. With six out of 40 precincts reporting, Democrat Liz Mathis leads Republican Cindy Golding by 5859 votes to 2474. UPDATE: Looks like a big win for Mathis. With 75 percent of precincts reporting, Mathis leads by 10,651 votes (58 percent) to 7,613 votes (41 percent).

SECOND UPDATE: The Linn County Auditor's office posted unofficial results here (pdf). With all 40 precincts reporting, Mathis received 13,184 votes (55.8 percent), Golding received 10,283 votes (43.5 percent), and Constitution Party candidate Jon Tack received 151 votes (0.64 percent).

Democrats have retained control of the Iowa Senate with a 26-24 majority for the 2012 legislative session. It may even be a "stronger" majority if Mathis turns out to be less conservative than her predecessor, Swati Dandekar. Iowa Senate Republicans won't be in a good mood when they elect a new minority leader on Thursday.

Nationally, Democrats have had good election results in Ohio (repealing a law that restricted collective bargaining rights) and Kentucky (holding the governor's chair). It's not yet clear whether Democrats will retain a Virginia Senate majority. I was surprised to see that Mississippi voters defeated a "personhood" ballot initiative stating that life begins at conception.

What races are you watching tonight? The incumbents on the Des Moines City Council easily won re-election. My two preferred candidates lost the Windsor Heights City Council election. Other Polk County results are here.

THIRD UPDATE: Democrats and allies are celebrating the Mathis victory with statements I've posted after the jump. The Iowa Democratic Party had lots of outside help with early GOTV from labor unions such as the Iowa State Education Association, the LGBT advocacy group One Iowa, the Planned Parenthood Voters of Iowa PAC, and the national 527 group Progressive Kick.

FOURTH UPDATE: An amazing result from Arizona tonight: voters recalled State Senate President Russell Pearce, author of the notorious "show me your papers" immigration law (which is being litigated in federal court). Apparently no state senator has ever been recalled in Arizona before. Pearce had been a leading opponent of the state's "clean elections" public financing system.

FINAL UPDATE: The official canvass showed 13,324 votes for Mathis (56.0 percent), 10,322 votes for Golding (43.4 percent), 151 votes for Tack, and nine write-in votes.
Statement from Iowa Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal:

"Congratulations to Liz Mathis for her victory in Senate District 18.
"Liz Mathis proved during this short campaign that she is committed to listening to her constituents and working hard. That is the attitude Liz will bring to the Capitol to improve the quality of life for families across Linn County.
"As Iowa's newest State Senator, Liz Mathis will ensure that our state continues to be a place where business can grow and prosper, a place where we can raise our families and a place where our children have access to every opportunity."

Statement from Iowa Democratic Party Chair Sue Dvorsky:

"Liz Mathis will be a dedicated voice for eastern Iowa as the newest member of the Iowa Senate. This election reaffirms Democratic commitment to creating jobs and strengthening education in the state of Iowa. Voters in Senate District 18 know that Democrats are the best choice to continue moving Iowa forward, and made their voice heard tonight at the polls.
"We thank Liz Mathis for her tireless campaigning, as well as the countless volunteers and community leaders who made this victory possible."

Press release from the Iowa Democratic Party:

Liz Mathis wins pivotal Special Election
Democrat Liz Mathis tonight won a decisive victory over Republican Cindy Golding in the Senate District 18 Special Election. District 18 covers Marion, Hiawatha, Robins, portions of Cedar Rapids and towns in rural north and western Linn County including Alburnett, Coggon, Center Point, Central City, Fairfax, Palo, Prairieburg, Toddville, and Walker.
"Tonight I want to thank the voters of Senate District 18," said Mathis. "Over the past 40 days, we talked with thousands of people here. They told us they were concerned about job creation, small business growth and education funding. We listened to them and we built our campaign on addressing their concerns."
Mathis added: "I pledge to the voters of this district: I will go to the Capitol and fight for you every day. I will be your voice in the State Senate."
This was Mathis' first run for public office. Mathis currently works for Four Oaks, a child advocacy and juvenile justice agency. She is Chief Information Officer, overseeing legislative advocacy, public relations, marketing and development. Mathis also serves on the Wartburg College Board of Regents and on the Board of Directors of Ohnward Bank.
Mathis was a news anchor, reporter and producer at KCRG-TV from 1998 to 2007. Prior to KCRG, Mathis spent 16 years at KWWL-TV in Waterloo, where she was an executive producer and the first female co-anchor of the evening news. She also taught communication studies and first amendment law at Wartburg College from 1996-1998.
Mathis and her husband, Mark, who owns the advertising agency ME&V, live near Robins and have two children. She grew up on a farm in eastern Iowa and is a University of Iowa graduate.

Statement from the advocacy group One Iowa:

From One Iowa Executive Director Troy Price:
"Tonight was a great victory for Iowans. Voters in this district clearly rejected the mean-spirited and misleading attacks of our opposition that we saw right up until the polls closed on election day. Instead, voters elected the candidate they felt would best move our state forward. We are so proud of our volunteers, staff, and supporters who helped make this victory possible. We know that Liz Mathis will be a great senator, and we look forward to working with her in the coming legislative session."
"The election is over, but the battle is far from over. Now, the focus turns to the coming legislative session where we fully expect the opponents of equality to redouble their efforts to take away the rights of loving, committed gay and lesbian couples. One Iowa will be there to stand up for marriage equality at every turn, and we are excited to work with the fair-minded Senate majority to ensure that freedom and equality remains in the heart of the heartland."

The Cedar Rapids Gazette quoted Iowa's most prominent labor leader:

Iowa Federation of Labor AFL-CIO President Ken Sagar called Mathis' win "a clear signal that voters are rejecting the anti-education, anti-working family agenda of Branstad and his followers in the Iowa Legislature."
Union families volunteered tirelessly to get out the vote because working Iowans understood what was at stake in this election, Sagar said.
"Iowa voters want to see their elected officials work together to create good jobs, not slash education and attack collective bargaining rights of teachers, firefighters and nurses," he said.

Iowa Senate district 18 election day news and discussion thread (updated)

desmoinesdem — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 14:58:25 GMT

Today's forecast calls for rain and cold temperatures in Linn County as Iowa Senate district 18 voters determine whether the Senate will remain Democratic-controlled for the 2012 session or deadlocked at 25-25. The weather doesn't seem bad enough to be a significant factor, but if it does keep some voters home, that's probably good news for Democrat Liz Mathis. She continues to lead Republican Cindy Golding in early voting.

The latest absentee ballot numbers and other news clips from the special election campaign are after the jump.

UPDATE: New absentee numbers for Senate district 18 are below.
UPDATE: Shortly after 4 pm on November 8, the Linn County Auditor's Elections office released new absentee ballot numbers for Senate district 18 voters only:

8,677 ballots issued to residents of Senate district 18:

4,283 (49.3 percent) went to registered Democrats
2,185 (25.2 percent) went to Republicans
2,200 (25.4 percent) went to no-party voters
Nine went to to voters with some other registration.

Meanwhile, 7,607 absentee ballots had been returned from Senate district 18 residents as of 4 pm on November 8:

3,808 (50.1 percent) came from registered Democrats
1,998 (26.3 percent) came from Republicans
1,796 (23.6 percent) came from no-party voters
Five came from voters with some other party registration.

At the close of business on November 7, the Linn County Auditor had issued 10,250 absentee ballots county-wide. Roughly 90 percent of the ballot requests have come from residents of Senate district 18. The rest are from voters planning to participate in other local elections taking place today.

Of the 10,250 ballots issued:

5,016 (48.9 percent) went to registered Democrats
2,727 (26.6 percent) went to Republicans
2,495 (24.3 percent) went to no-party voters
Twelve went to to voters with some other registration.

At the close of business on November 7, the Linn County Auditor's office had received 8,609 absentee ballots for today's election. That number includes people who voted early in person at the auditor's office as well as those who filled out their absentee ballots at home. The returned ballots broke down as follows:

4,335 (50.4 percent) came from registered Democrats
2,343 (27.2 percent) came from Republicans
1,924 (22.4 percent) came from no-party voters
Seven came from voters with some other party registration.

Golding has a lot of ground to make up today, especially if the no-party absentee voters have leaned toward Mathis. Bleeding Heartland user albert analyzed Senate district 18 absentee voting trends last week and found, "The precinct-level view suggests that a successful effort is underway to galvanize younger independent voters to participate in this election."

I got a laugh out of Governor Terry Branstad's remark at yesterday's press conference that it will be an "uphill battle" for Golding. Citing the "short window" of the special election campaign, the governor said:

"I believe that the Republican candidate, Cindy Golding, has a great background and great business experience and is a hard worker, but also I think she has a considerable name recognition disadvantage," Branstad said. [...]
"When you look at special elections, they are not much of an indicator ... they're an indicator of that particular district at that point in time," he said. "So I don't think people should read too much into it but obviously we'll see."

I have to believe Branstad would be speaking more confidently and would have spent more political capital on this race if his preferred candidate, Mary Rathje, had been the GOP nominee. Rathje came up short at the district nominating convention in September.

Family Research Council Action scheduled a "Values Voters Bus Tour" stop in Marion yesterday to GOTV for Golding. National Organization for Marriage Executive Director Chris Plante was on board, and Iowa Independent posted video from the event. Golding emphasized that her campaign is about many issues:

The media has made it [marriage] a single issue, not us. We want to talk about all of the things that the Senate stalled, the 83 percent of the issues that were bipartisan issues that the Senate refused, that Senator Gronstal refused to bring to the floor.
It is the [Cedar Rapids] Gazette and the media that has made this a single issue, and I want to encourage our voters, don't vote on a single issue. Vote on all those other values that are important to you, that makes Iowa as great as it has been, and as great as it can be in the future. It is not a single issue, it is one of several issues that bring us together to change this state.
We need to get everybody out to vote tomorrow. We have a chance to change this state, and it's not one issue, it's 83 percent of the bills that pass the [Iowa] House that we don't get to debate on the floor of the Senate.

Lynda Waddington's video from that rally is on YouTube here.

Meanwhile, the Citizens United Political Victory Fund PAC paid for robocalls targeting 35,000 voters in Iowa Senate district 18 yesterday. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee recorded the robocalls using this script:

Hi this is former Governor Mike Huckabee calling for Citizens United Political Victory Fund to urge you to vote for Republican Cindy Golding on Tuesday for State Senate to represent you and the other fine folks there in the 18th District. With Cindy Golding in Des Moines, Republicans will wrestle control away from the big spending Democrats and put us one step closer to getting our fiscal House in order and most importantly to start getting Iowans working again. With our economy struggling to get back on track, now more than ever America, and especially Iowa, needs a problem solver in government- not another celebrity! And there's only one real problem solver and job creator in the race to be your next state senator and that is Republican Cindy Golding- that's why I urge you to vote Cindy Golding...Republican for state senate.
Paid for by Citizens United Political Victory Fund. WWW.CUPVF.COM. And
not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.

Iowa law requires candidates to file campaign disclosure reports by the Friday before election day. Mathis reported more cash on hand and more in-kind contributions (pdf) going into the final weekend than Golding did (pdf).

The Cedar Rapids Gazette editorial board endorsed Mathis Sunday, citing her "stronger grasp of education issues" and capacity to "grow into the job, build relationships and become a strong advocate for her district." While the board praised Golding's "strong grasp of issues related to business growth," the majority of members felt concerned that

Golding's more strident stands will make it harder for her to reach across the aisle and forge the compromises that will be needed in a closely divided Legislature.
We're also troubled by Golding's call for holding a vote on a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriages in Iowa. This editorial page has stood strongly for the right of gay and lesbian Iowans to enjoy civil marriage rights. The fact that Golding would risk those constitutional rights in a divisive public vote to, as she said, take the "spotlight" off Iowa, gave us pause.

The marriage issue tipped the scales for Gazette columnist Todd Dorman, a Senate district 18 resident:

I was initially critical of Mathis' reluctance to say the ruling was a good thing. But a reader pointed out to me that of the 28 Linn County precincts that voted to toss out three Supreme Court Justices last fall, 22 are in District 18. Perhaps Mathis deserves more credit than I gave her for defending the ruling.
Golding deserves no credit for her stand. It would be wrong to put Iowans' hard-won civil rights to a vote simply to turn off a spotlight or change an uncomfortable subject. And it's groups supporting Golding, including the Family Leader and National Organization for Marriage, that keep that spotlight burning bright. She should tell them to turn it off.
And civil rights debates simply don't end once and for all.
Unlike taxes and education, which likely will be decided in negotiations far above Golding or Mathis' legislative pay grade, this is an issue of individual conscience. Does Iowa's Constitution protect all of us, or just some of us? Is equal protection a sacred contract or a popularity contest? Not important? I disagree. This is about more than a marriage license.
It's the sort of issue that Mary Lundby wouldn't shy away from when she represented this district. And Golding's stand does not pass the Mary Lundby test.

Lundby represented Iowa Senate district 18 until her retirement in 2008. She was one of four Iowa Senate Republicans who voted against a constitutional amendment on marriage in 2004. At the time, Republicans held a 29-21 Senate majority, but the four no votes meant the amendment failed to pass, 25-25. If Lundby and the others had not stood their ground, Iowa voters would likely have approved a constitutional amendment restricting marriage to one man and one woman years ago. The Varnum v Brien case would never have been filed, and the Iowa Supreme Court would never have struck down the state's Defense of Marriage Act.

Any comments about Iowa Senate district 18 or local elections anywhere in Iowa are welcome in this thread.

Four candidates are competing for two seats on the Windsor Heights City Council. All of them have plentiful yard signs and have been canvassing, making phone calls or both. I'm voting for incumbent Steve Peterson and challenger Kerry Bowen.

UPDATE: Local media are reporting on ugly robocalls made yesterday, purporting to be from marriage supporters and asking which "homosexual acts" Mathis endorses. The Golding campaign distanced itself from the calls, while the National Organization for Marriage blasted "calls that were so offensive they clearly were designed to turn voters away from Cindy Golding because she supports marriage between one man and one woman." This story from KGAN (the CBS affiliate in Cedar Rapids) doesn't indicate which voters were targeted.

Lynda Waddington posted audio from several robocalls made in the Senate district 18 race--but not the one claiming to come from "Citizens for Honesty and Sound Marriage."

SECOND UPDATE: The LGBT advocacy group One Iowa released the following statement about the controversial robocalls:

Marion, IA-Voters in Senate District 18, the site of the special election to fill an empty Senate seat and whose outcome will determine control of the state Senate, have reported receiving disturbing and offensive robocalls. The National Organization for Marriage and The Family Leader claim that these calls were targeting anti-equality advocates are a "dirty trick" designed to affect the election.
"These types of dirty tricks have no place in Iowa, and it is disturbing and unfortunate that NOM and the Family Leader would claim that proponents of marriage are behind these calls," said Troy Price, One Iowa Executive Director. "By sending mailers into the district focused on marriage and bringing their bus to Marion, they are the ones who have injected marriage into this race, and no one else. If they really want to get to the bottom of this, they should look no further than their own back yard."

Poll shows Mathis leading in Iowa Senate district 18

desmoinesdem — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 12:10:00 GMT

Democrat Liz Mathis has banked more early votes than Republican Cindy Golding for Tuesday's special election in Iowa Senate district 18, and a survey by Public Policy Polling puts her narrowly ahead in the final days of the campaign.
Click here for PPP's full polling memo, including the questionnaire and cross-tabs. Tom Jensen posted highlights here. Mathis leads Golding by 52 percent to 46 percent, even though respondents split 44 percent to 44 percent on whether they would prefer Democrats or Republicans to be in control of the Iowa Senate. High name recognition from local television work and a strategy to avoid taking a stand on controversial issues are probably helping Mathis outperform the desire to maintain a Democratic-controlled Senate.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 878 "likely voters" in Iowa Senate district 18 between November 4 and November 6. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percent. I inquired about the likely voter screen; PPP responded that they pulled a list of voters who had voted in at least one of the last three general elections, and the call script began by asking respondents to "hang up now" if they were not planning to vote on Tuesday.

Opponents of same-sex marriage rights slightly outnumbered supporters by 46 percent to 42 percent, but only 11 percent of respondents told PPP that gay marriage was the most important factor determining their vote.

Both President Barack Obama and Governor Terry Branstad are in net negative territory among this poll's respondents. Obama's approve/disapprove numbers were 37/51, even though 51 percent of those surveyed said they had voted for Obama in 2008, compared to 43 percent who said they had voted for John McCain.

Branstad registered 39 percent approval and 42 percent disapproval. I am surprised that 18 percent of respondents were unsure whether they approved or disapproved of the governor's performance. Remember, this wasn't a survey of adults or registered voters in Senate district 18. This poll tried to sample likely voters in a special election for the state legislature. Presumably we're talking about a very politically engaged slice of the electorate. Yet nearly a fifth of them don't have an opinion on Branstad's work as governor.

I don't know how to interpret that finding. Maybe Branstad has done a good job of pushing his political agenda below the radar, or maybe voters aren't sure what Branstad's been trying to do, because the 26 Iowa Senate Democrats kept many of his proposals from becoming law.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

Updated Iowa Senate district 18 absentee ballot numbers

desmoinesdem — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 22:43:46 GMT

Democrat Liz Mathis continues to lead in both absentee ballots requested and returned for the November 8 special election in Iowa Senate district 18. After the jump I've posted details as of 5 pm on November 4.

If you haven't read it already, Bleeding Heartland user albert's precinct-level analysis of the early voting numbers is well worth your time.

Note: Senate district 18 residents can vote in person on Saturday from 8 am to 5 pm at the Linn County Auditor's office at Westdale Mall.

UPDATE: Absentee ballot numbers for Senate district 18 residents only are now after the jump.
The Linn County Auditor has issued 9,924 absentee ballots county-wide. Roughly 90 percent of the ballot requests have come from residents of Senate district 18. The rest are from voters planning to participate in other local elections on November 8.

Of the 9,924 ballots issued:

4,873 (49.1 percent) went to registered Democrats
2,624 (26.4 percent) went to Republicans
2,416 (24.4 percent) went to no-party voters
Eleven went to to voters with some other registration.

At the close of business on November 4, the Linn County Auditor's office had received 7,624 absentee ballots for the November 8 election. That number includes people who voted early in person at the auditor's office as well as those who filled out their absentee ballots at home. The returned ballots broke down as follows:

3,900 (51.2 percent) came from registered Democrats
2,052 (26.9 percent) came from Republicans
1,666 (21.9 percent) came from no-party voters
Six came from voters with some other party registration.

UPDATE: Here are the November 4 numbers for Senate district 18 residents only.

8,576 absentee ballots issued total

4,239 to Democrats (49.4 percent)
2,153 to Republicans (25.1 percent)
2,175 to no-party voters (25.4 percent)
Nine to voters with some other registration

6,549 ballots returned to the Linn County Auditor

3,397 from Democrats (51.9 percent)
1,660 from Republicans (25.4 percent)
1,487 from no-party voters (22.7 percent)
Five from voters with some other registration

Looks like Mathis goes into the final weekend before election day with a healthy lead in votes banked.

McKinley resigning as Iowa Senate Republican leader, won't run in 2012

desmoinesdem — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 13:02:08 GMT

Iowa Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley announced yesterday that he will not seek re-election in 2012 and will step down as leader of his party's caucus when Senate Republicans meet in Des Moines on November 10. After the jump I've posted background on the drive to oust McKinley and thoughts about which Senate Republican will take his place next week.

McKinley's retirement leaves Republicans without an obvious candidate in the new Senate district 14, which should be competitive in 2012. A map of this swing district is also below.
McKinley posted this statement on his website Wednesday:

MOVING ON TO THE NEXT CHAPTER OF MY LIFE
CHARITON - Senate Republican Leader Paul McKinley (R-Chariton) announced today that he will not seek re-election to the Iowa Senate next year.
McKinley also announced that he will step down as Senate Republican Leader when Senate Republicans meet at the Capitol on Thursday, November 10 for their previously scheduled fall caucus.
"Since I will not be seeking another term, I believe the Senate Republicans should have a new leader in place now to continue building on the momentum that is being generated as we head toward picking up the majority in November of 2012," said McKinley, who was first elected in 2000 and was elected leader in November 2008.
McKinley said this decision was not made lightly and that after speaking at length with his family, he decided it was time to move on to a new chapter of life.
"In the 80's, I purchased and grew my manufacturing business in southern Iowa. In the 90's, I sold my business, retired, raised my children and served my community in various capacities. For the past eleven years, I have served my state as a Senator and now it is time to move on to the next chapter of my life and spend more time with my grandchildren," McKinley noted.
McKinley will finish out his current term which expires in January of 2013. The upcoming session, which begins in January of 2012, will be his last.
"Serving my fellow citizens has truly been the honor of a lifetime," he concluded.

Senate Republicans elected McKinley to head their caucus shortly after the 2008 election. He drew criticism from some conservatives for being unprepared to respond to the Iowa Supreme Court's landmark marriage ruling. The court announced its Varnum v Brien decision toward the end of the 2009 legislative session. Iowa House Republicans quickly tried and failed to force a floor vote on a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage. Senate Republicans could not use the same maneuver because they hadn't filed the amendment as a new bill that year. In the words of right-wing talk radio host Steve Deace,

McKinley managed to do something that is nearly impossible for a Republican leader with any shrewdness whatsoever to do: get caught with your pants down on a social issue while in the minority.
Usually Republican leaders sell out their Christian conservative base after that base works tirelessly to make the majority, not while in the minority. On the other hand, as a minority party Republicans are often the most principled politicians in the world. So for McKinley to get caught in his first go around as Republican State Senate Leader with his pants down by not having a marriage amendment on file for the 2009 legislative session is either total incompetence, the worst clerical error in the history of the office, or the most cynical brand of politics.

First-term State Senator Bill Dix has had his eye on McKinley's job for some time and announced a leadership challenge in September. Although Dix lacked the votes to oust McKinley at that time, several other Senate Republicans have indicated that they support a leadership change. It didn't help that McKinley went on a previously planned overseas vacation in September. With control of the Senate at stake in the district 18 special election, many Republicans felt McKinley should have been more involved in a vigorous effort to help Cindy Golding's campaign in Linn County.

Depending on the outcome of the November 8 election in Senate district 18, McKinley's successor will either be minority leader or co-leader with Democrat Mike Gronstal in a chamber deadlocked 25-25. I expect someone loyal to McKinley to run against Dix at next week's caucus, perhaps Senate Minority Whip Steve Kettering. I will update this post if I hear more about possible candidates for the job. Five senators served as assistant minority leaders during the 2011 legislative session: Merlin Bartz, Brad Zaun, Pat Ward, David Johnson, and Tim Kapucian. Johnson is not up for re-election in 2012. Bartz faces a tough campaign next year against Democratic State Senator Mary Jo Wilhelm in the new Senate district 26. Ward faces a more conservative Republican primary challenger in the new Senate district 22. Kapucian is up for re-election in the competitive Senate district 38. Zaun will also be on the ballot next November, but Senate district 20 looks safe for Republicans.

UPDATE: State Senator Jerry Behn of Boone will run for Senate Republican leader. In 2009, Behn was briefly a candidate for governor, although he didn't look ready for prime time.

Republicans have a good shot at winning outright control of the Iowa Senate in the 2012 elections, but I'm not surprised McKinley decided against seeking a fourth term. Being a backbencher in the majority probably isn't a lot more fun than leading the minority caucus. In addition, McKinley would have to run for re-election in a much less conservative district than the area he now represents.

Iowa's new map of political boundaries put McKinley in Senate district 14, covering Clarke, Decatur, Wayne and Lucas Counties, most of Marion County, and a small part of Jasper County.

As of April 2011, Senate district 14 contained 12,299 registered Democrats, 12,921 Republicans and 14,401 no-party voters. In contrast, McKinley's current Senate district 36 is solidly Republican, with a registration advantage of roughly 4,000 for the GOP according to the Secretary of State's Office (pdf).

To my knowledge, Democrats do not yet have a candidate in the new Senate district 14. The race will clearly be more attractive without the prospect of facing an incumbent.

First-term State Representative Joel Fry could be a potential Republican candidate in Senate district 14. The redistricting process put him in House district 27, the southwestern part of the Senate district.

There is no Republican candidate yet in the new House district 28, the other half of Senate district 14. Longtime State Representative Rich Arnold is retiring. Last week Democrat Megan Day Suhr announced her candidacy for that open seat.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

Iowa Senate district 18: Early voting trends

albert — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 11:47:33 GMT

The early voting numbers appear quite promising for Democratic candidate Liz Mathis. As of 2 November, the Democrats have exceeded their 2010 general election return total, while the Republican ballot requests (thus far) fall short of 2010 early voting, with a substantially larger lag in returns.

The ballot return numbers for Democrats and Republicans are displayed in order of increasing precinct size with percentages expressed relative to 2010. The volatility early in the series for the smaller precincts is not significant. All precincts are shown except for the "split" Cedar Rapids precincts that account for only a minuscule fraction of the electorate.

Based on the above, the relevant number is 2987 already banked for Democrats, just past their 2978 total in 2010. The Republicans, on the other hand, have not hit the 50% mark yet, with only 1426 banked compared to 2902 total in 2010. The number of Republican requests is 2066, 72% of their 2010 early voting total, so election day turnout will be critical for Cindy Golding's prospects.

The No Party "independent" returns are approaching 2010 levels with 1349 in as compared to 1528 cast in 2010. The precinct-level results are shown in order of increasing youth density, or number of voters in the 18-34 range normalized by precinct canvassing area:

The precinct-level view suggests that a successful effort is underway to galvanize younger independent voters to participate in this election. The key precincts to note are shown below in purple (very high value) and blue (high value), followed by green (medium) and yellow (low). In this context, "very high value" means the greatest density of youth voters. Note that this is very much a "shoe leather" exercise as this district does not have many obvious sources (colleges, trendy urban neighborhoods) to draw on beyond the Marion campus of Kirkwood Community College.

Note that all the large townships are (very) low-value targets. Central City (not shown) is medium (green).

The importance of the youth vote for Democrats cannot be overstated. Consider that the minority vote is almost non-existent. Only four precincts are below 90% White Non-Hispanic: Hiawatha 1 (84.9 2010 Census), Marion 4-3 (88.2) Cedar Rapids 46 (89.4) and Marion 1-3 (89.8).

Next, consider some of the head-to-head results of the 2010 election in this district:

Loebsack 47 Miller-Meeks 53

Mauro 46.5 Schultz 53.5

Culver 46 Branstad 54

Ternus retention: 53.4 NO

and compare, for example, to the 2008 result for IA-02:

Loebsack 55 Miller-Meeks 45.

A look at voter turnout by age group and party identification in 2010, relative to the 2008 electorate, shows clearly that the collapse in Democratic turnout was due to lack of Democratic/NP youth participation.

It is premature to extrapolate from the elevated Democratic and independent early voting trends, but by Monday, this post will be updated with turnout scenarios based on the final figures. At present, the numbers should be viewed as a hint at what is developing. Nevertheless, the poor GOP performance coupled to elevated Dem and NP returns in the more youthful precincts that posted some of the more favorable results for 2010 judicial retendtion bodes well for Democrats retaining the senate majority.

Latest early voting numbers from Iowa Senate district 18

desmoinesdem — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 01:35:16 GMT

UPDATE: More recent absentee ballot numbers are here, and a precinct-level analysis of the early voting is here.

Democrat Liz Mathis continues to hold a significant lead in Iowa Senate district 18 early voting, judging from the latest absentee ballot numbers from the Linn County Auditor's Elections Office.
At close of business on November 2, the Linn County Auditor had received 9,516 absentee ballot requests for the November 8 election. Residents of Senate district 18 requested 88.3 percent of that total (approximately 8,400 ballots). The rest of the ballots were sent to voters planning to participate in local elections elsewhere in Linn County.

Of the 9,516 ballots issued so far:

4,695 (49.3 percent) went to registered Democrats
2,486 (26.1 percent) went to Republicans
2,324 (24.4 percent) went to no-party voters
Eleven went to to voters with some other registration.

At the close of business on November 2, the Linn County Auditor's office had received 6,498 absentee ballots for the November 8 election. That number includes people who voted early in person at the auditor's office as well as those who filled out their absentee ballots at home. The returned ballots broke down as follows:

3,388 (52.1 percent) came from registered Democrats
1,735 (26.7 percent) came from Republicans
1,370 (21.1 percent) came from no-party voters
Five came from voters with some other party registration.

The Republicans will have a lot of ground to make up on election day, especially if Mathis is running even or ahead of Golding among no-party voters. Golding has to hope that Republicans are highly motivated to turn out next Tuesday, and that Mathis is primarily banking votes from Democrats who would have shown up on November 8 anyway.

The big question is what proportion of the electorate will vote early instead of waiting until election day? I don't know the answer, but I took a few educated guesses about turnout numbers here.

Any comments or predictions about the Senate district 18 race are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Bleeding Heartland user albert wrote a precinct-level analysis of the early voting numbers as of November 2.

Liz Mathis still has early vote edge in Iowa Senate district 18 (updated)

desmoinesdem — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 11:57:01 GMT

UPDATE: More recent absentee ballot numbers are here, and a precinct-level analysis of the early voting is here.

Absentee ballot requests and returns continue to favor Democrat Liz Mathis over Cindy Golding, her Republican opponent in the Iowa Senate district 18 special election.

The latest numbers from the Linn County Auditor's Elections office are after the jump, along with recent comments about marriage equality by the Senate district 18 candidates.
At close of business on October 31, the Linn County Auditor had received 9,147 absentee ballot requests for the November 8 election. According to the Elections Office, 89.6 percent of those ballot requests came from voters residing in Senate district 18. The other 10 percent were from people planning to vote in local elections elsewhere in the county.

Of the 9,147 ballots issued so far:

4,555 (49.8 percent) went to registered Democrats
2,332 (25.5 percent) went to Republicans
2,249 (24.6 percent) went to no-party voters
Eleven went to to voters with some other registration.

At the close of business on October 31, the Linn County Auditor's office had received 5,388 absentee ballots for the November 8 election. That number includes people who voted early in person at the auditor's office as well as those who filled out their absentee ballots at home. The returned ballots broke down as follows:

2,910 (54.1 percent) came from registered Democrats
1,366 (25.4 percent) came from Republicans
1,108 (20.6 percent) came from no-party voters
Four came from voters with some other party registration.

UPDATE: Here are the numbers released at the end of the business day on November 1. Of 9,362 absentee ballots issued so far:

4,631 (49.5 percent) went to registered Democrats
2,422 (25.9 percent) went to Republicans
2,298 (24.6 percent) went to no-party voters
Eleven went to to voters with some other registration.

Of 6,044 absentee ballots that the Linn County Auditor's Office had received from voters at the end of the day on November 1:

3,187 (52.8 percent) came from registered Democrats
1,602 (26.5 percent) came from Republicans
1,250 (20.7 percent) came from no-party voters
Five came from voters with some other party registration.

The proportion of absentee ballots from Democrats, Republicans and no-party voters has changed little since last Tuesday or the end of last week. We can't determine from these numbers whether the independents voting early are evenly split or are leaning toward Mathis or Golding. That said, it's a safe bet that Mathis has banked more votes than Golding with a week to go.

Both political parties and several outside interest groups have been working on GOTV in Senate district 18. Mathis has to hope her absentee ballot lead reflects greater voter enthusiasm on the Democratic side. Golding has to hope the discrepancy comes from Republicans' tendency to vote on election day, not by absentee ballot. A strong conservative turnout on November 8 could put Golding over the top, so Democrats are in no position to celebrate victory yet. But of course it's always better to go into election day leading by a thousand or more votes.

Several people have asked me how large turnout is likely to be for the Senate district 18 election. The short answer is that I have no idea, but I've been thinking about some possible educated guesses. Here are the turnout numbers for the most competitive 2010 Iowa Senate races (pdf):

Senate district 1: 15,329 votes cast

Senate district 5: 23,572 votes cast

Senate district 13: 20,569 votes cast

Senate district 37: 29,139 votes cast

Senate district 45: 23,733 votes cast

Senate district 47: 19,751 votes cast

Note: the Senate district 37 race between Democratic incumbent Staci Appel and Republican State Representative Kent Sorenson had significantly higher turnout than the other closely-fought Senate races last year. In part, that reflects rapid population growth in Warren County during the past decade. The Appel/Sorenson race also resembled the Senate district 18 campaign in that it was "ground zero" for the battle over marriage equality in Iowa. Appel's husband was one of the seven Iowa Supreme Court justices who concurred in the Varnum v Brien ruling on marriage. Sorenson was one of the legislature's most outspoken critics of same-sex marriage rights and sought to bring back elections for the state Supreme Court. Republicans, Democrats and outside groups spent large amounts of money advertising and organizing in the district, just as they are now doing in Senate district 18.

One could argue that there's no way turnout will be as high for this year's special election as it was for a general election when the governor and members of Congress were on the ballot. The last highly competitive special election for the Iowa legislature was the 2009 race in House district 90. Voters cast 8,092 ballots in that race, which also involved heavy advertising and GOTV on both sides. An Iowa House district is half the size of a Senate district, so if turnout in Senate district 18 is comparable to what we saw in House district 90, we could be looking at around 16,000 votes cast.

On the other hand, there's much more at stake now, because the November 8 result will determine whether Democrats retain a 26-24 Iowa Senate majority or have to share power in a chamber deadlocked 25-25. The 2009 race in House district 90 was high-profile because it came only a few months after the Iowa Supreme Court's landmark ruling on marriage, and Republicans were hoping a win would give them momentum going into the next election cycle. But even if Curt Hanson hadn't carried House district 90, Democrats would have maintained an Iowa House majority for the 2010 session.

Looking at the 2008 election results for all Iowa Senate races, I noticed that Senate district 18 had the second-highest number of votes cast. (Democrat Swati Dandekar defeated Republican Joe Childers in that open-seat race.) Strong population growth in the Cedar Rapids suburbs put more voters in Senate district 18 than in most other Iowa Senate districts. The summer 2008 floods were relevant too, because they displaced an unknown number of residents from downtown Cedar Rapids to suburban neighborhoods. It's also possible that demographic factors such as relatively high income and education levels in Senate district 18 are linked to above-average voter turnout there.

Another way of approaching this question is to look at the proportion of Iowans who prefer to vote early. According to the Iowa Secretary of State's office (pdf), 587,561 women and 537,824 men cast ballots in the 2010 general election. Of those, 201,638 women and 158,829 men voted with absentee ballots (that includes people who voted early in person at satellite stations). In other words, about a third of the electorate cast early ballots. I don't know whether a similar proportion of Senate district 18 residents voted early.

My hunch is that absentee ballots will make up more than a third of the total votes cast in Senate district 18, because local elections are the only other game in town on November 8. Typically turnout is much lower for city races than for statewide and Congressional elections.

The Linn County Auditor's office has sent out 9,147 ballots, 90 percent of them (roughly 8,200) to voters living in Senate district 18. Does that represent half or more of the total votes that will be cast for Golding and Mathis? Your guess is as good as mine.

I will say confidently that if Mathis wins, she can be grateful for high name recognition and superior organizing on the Democratic side. Her campaign rhetoric isn't going to inspire anyone. Yesterday both candidates met with the Cedar Rapids Gazette editorial board. Look how Mathis answered the questions about same-sex marriage in Iowa:

Q - Do you believe that Iowa voters should determine whether or not the state constitution should declare that marriage should be between a man and a woman?
Mathis - "I think we've both answered that, three, four, five, six times or something. And a couple of times by your two reporters. So, I'll say it again. Iowa should not discriminate. I don't believe in discrimination. I believe in the Iowa State Supreme Court, their unanimous ruling, appellate ruling on gay marriage. Varnum v. Brien is constitutionally sound. And I'll just leave it at that." [...]
Q - How has the ruling changed the state? (To Mathis)
Mathis - "I think it's changed the state because we're back to one-issue voting. I think there are people who are going to vote on that and vote on that only. They're missing a chance to really be informed about a lot of other things that are very, very, very important to our economy. You know, we need to look at the economics of our state and, um, that's what I see most. That people are putting blinders on just one issue."
Q - So no positive change?
"A positive change in a way that people are becoming politically active, if that's the type of politics I think that you prefer. There are people who are looking more clearly at the process and understanding and being more involved. If that's an upside. I'm not sure if you're looking at this issue in particular."

So, Mathis thinks the court's ruling was "constitutionally sound," and she's against discrimination. But asked how the Varnum v Brien decision changed the state, the first thing that popped into her head was a negative: a lot of people became single-issue voters. Pressed to name a positive impact, she said the ruling made people more politically active and involved "if that's an upside."

Way to make all those One Iowa donors and volunteers feel great about helping your campaign, Ms. Mathis.

Helpful hint: Iowa has an estimated 4,000 same-sex households. About a third of those include married couples, who now enjoy the same civil rights as married heterosexuals. And whether they are partnered or not, thousands of LGBT Iowans know that they are not second-class citizens in this state.

Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal and then House Speaker Pat Murphy didn't hesitate to welcome the positive impact of Varnum v Brien on April 3, 2009:

"Thanks to today's decision, Iowa continues to be a leader in guaranteeing all of our citizens' equal rights.
"The court has ruled today that when two Iowans promise to share their lives together, state law will respect that commitment, regardless of whether the couple is gay or straight.
"When all is said and done, we believe the only lasting question about today's events will be why it took us so long. It is a tough question to answer because treating everyone fairly is really a matter of Iowa common sense and Iowa common decency.
"Today, the Iowa Supreme Court has reaffirmed those Iowa values by ruling that gay and lesbian Iowans have all the same rights and responsibilities of citizenship as any other Iowan. [...]
"In the case of recognizing loving relationships between two adults, the Iowa Supreme Court is once again taking a leadership position on civil rights.
"Today, we congratulate the thousands of Iowans who now can express their love for each other and have it recognized by our laws."

It shouldn't be hard for Mathis to think of a positive way marriage equality has changed Iowa.

Not that Golding's answer to the same questions will please conservatives trying to paint her as the savior of "traditional marriage" in Iowa. She told the Gazette's editorial board,

Golding - "And I have said very clearly that I believe that the citizens of Iowa should vote on this issue. We are in the spotlight and continue to be in the spotlight on an issue that we chose not to be there. The Legislature voted on a bill that was by representative government. I understand the bill was poorly written. It was then voted on by the judges to determine the constitutionality of that bill. And now we need to go to the people, which is the final step. And I believe that once we vote on it, whether we vote it up or down, the spotlight can come off Iowa for that issue and we can focus on business, we can focus on jobs, focus on education. We can focus on the things we really need to be taking our time and energy. Because nobody in our district, it was not a huge issue to either one of us as we were going around. It became an issue to us by the national media."
Q - How do think the ruling has changed Iowa?
Golding - "I don't know how the ruling has dramatically changed, but I can see changes in the schools. I am a volunteer in the high schools. And in my daughter's high school, they have a scholarship for a gay student. And I am curious what the sexual orientation of a student should be for a scholarship in high school. That troubles me."
Q - Is that the only criteria for the scholarship?
"Well there's academics, but you must be a declared GLBT student in order to apply for it. That troubles me."
Q - So if the impact hasn't been dramatic, I guess, how do you think the state's made better by having a referendum? It's obviously going to be pretty contentious, pretty divisive. How is Iowa made better through that process?
Golding - "I think across the nation where the voting has come up, in those states it is contentious until the vote is done. And then regardless of whether the state voted up or voted down, the spotlight came off them. We need to take the focus off Iowa."

Yet again, Golding downplays the issue and says people should be able to vote on marriage without claiming that same-sex marriage has harmed Iowa in any material way. She may score points with conservatives by implying that an LGBT agenda influences public schools, but she's wrong about the Matthew Shepard scholarships. Those predate the Varnum v Brien ruling.

Any comments about the Senate district 18 race are welcome in this thread.

P.S. Bonus points for ignorance go to Jon Tack, the Constitution Party candidate in Senate district 18. At last week's League of Women Voters forum, he said this about same-sex marriage rights:

"With the issue of gay marriage or same-sex marriage, marriage is actually a religious ceremony," Tack said. "It is not part of a government function and, as such, it therefore violates the First Amendment upon which the government shall not make any laws respecting an establishment of religion nor prohibit the free exercise thereof.
"The decision handed down by the Iowa Supreme Court should be nullified because the government has no business dealing with religion and telling them how to operate, who to accept in terms of marriage in Christianity, which is what we are in Iowa - primarily in Iowa; mostly [this is] a Christian nation. Marriage is between one man and one woman."

Guess again, Mr. Tack. Excerpt from pages 66 and 67 of the Varnum decision (pdf):

In the final analysis, we give respect to the views of all Iowans on the issue of same-sex marriage--religious or otherwise--by giving respect to our constitutional principles. These principles require that the state recognize both opposite-sex and same-sex civil marriage. Religious doctrine and views contrary to this principle of law are unaffected, and people can continue to associate with the religion that best reflects their views. A religious denomination can still define marriage as a union between a man and a woman, and a marriage ceremony performed by a minister, priest, rabbi, or other person ordained or designated as a leader of the person's religious faith does not lose its meaning as a sacrament or other religious institution.

News from the Iowa Senate district 18 debates

desmoinesdem — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 14:53:00 GMT

UPDATE: More recent absentee ballot numbers are here, and a precinct-level analysis of the early voting is here.

Democrat Liz Mathis and Republican Cindy Golding debated two nights in a row this week. Highlights from their encounters are after the jump, along with updated absentee ballot numbers for the Senate district 18 special election.
Mathis is maintaining her early vote advantage, according to the latest numbers released by the Linn County Auditor's Elections office. At the end of the day on October 27, 8,216 absentee ballots for the November 8 special election had been issued.

UPDATE/CLARIFICATION: About 90 percent of the absentee ballots requested in Linn County are for voters living in Senate district 18. The other 10 percent have gone to voters in other areas holding local elections on November 8.

Of the 8,216 ballot requests:

4,170 (51 percent) went to registered Democrats
2,083 (25 percent) went to Republicans
1,955 (24 percent) went to no-party voters
Eight went to to voters with some other registration.

At the close of business on October 27, the Linn County Auditor's office had received 3,777 absentee ballots for the special election. That number includes people who voted early in person at the auditor's office as well as those who filled out their absentee ballots at home. The returned ballots broke down as follows:

2,088 (55 percent) came from registered Democrats
962 (25 percent) came from Republicans
726 (19 percent) came from no-party voters
One came from a voter with some other party registration.

UPDATE: Here are more recent numbers from the end of Friday, October 28. Of 8,454 absentee ballot requests,

4,252 (50 percent) went to registered Democrats
2,187 (26 percent) went to Republicans
2007 (24 percent) went to no-party voters
Eight went to voters with some other party registration.

Of the 4,473 ballots that had been returned to the Linn County Auditor's office by the end of October 28,

2,457 (55 percent) came from registered Democrats
1,150 (26 percent) came from Republicans
864 (19 percent) came from no-party voters
Two came from voters with some other party registration.

That's excellent news for Mathis, because she sounded shaky during her first debate against Golding on October 26. The video isn't available on YouTube to my knowledge, but local viewers who missed the debate can watch it on KCRG's 9.2 channel at 1:00 Monday afternoon and 8:00 Tuesday evening. Todd Dorman was one of the moderators and posted his take here. The candidates disagreed on many issues, and Golding objected to Mathis' claim that she would be a rubber stamp for Governor Terry Branstad. By way of example, Golding said that she opposes raising the gas tax now. Mathis also spoke against a gas tax hike.

Golding seemed much more sure-footed on her core issues - cutting business regulation, reducing/reforming taxes and breaking what Republicans see as a logjam in the Senate. Her victory would create a 25-25 tie which she contends will force the parties to work together.
Mathis was much less sure footed, and seemed to sense at times that she wasn't doing well. I asked a question from the audience about eliminating Iowans' ability to deduct federal taxes from their state taxes, "federal deductability," and she clearly didn't understand what I was talking about. And when I asked about watershed management, she talked about Palo being a small town that had a rough time, then seemed to lose her train of thought. [...]
I think Golding's weakest performance was on education, which she said Iowa schools would be improved by "an attitude change," but not necessarily new funding. She complained that elementary schools no longer group kids by skill level for reading instruction. They do that at my kids' school, a block from the site of the debate.
Golding distanced herself at times from Branstad, but at no point did Mathis turn to Golding and say I'm not Mike Gronstal. He's not running here. I am. I think that was a mistake.

Projecting confidence is very important in a televised debate. Mathis of all people should be able to do that, having worked in local tv news for decades. Even if Golding got some facts wrong, like her comments about reading instruction, viewers will probably not be aware of her mistakes because she sounded sure of herself.

Iowa is one of only three states that allow residents to deduct their federal tax payments from their adjusted income for state tax purposes. Democrats offered a tax reform proposal during the 2009 legislative session that would have repealed federal deductibility. The package cleared the Iowa Senate but stalled in the then Democratic-controlled Iowa House. Federal deductibility is a non-issue now, because the GOP-controlled state House would never repeal it. Nevertheless, Mathis should be ready to answer questions on the issue.

Paul Deaton posted a more positive spin on Mathis' October 26 performance at Blog for Iowa. I am just not convinced that running against "gridlock" or partisan "bickering" is a good strategy for Mathis. Gridlock is fine by me if the alternative is a fast-track for the Republican policy agenda. Mathis keeps promising to reach across the aisle, but without the 26 Iowa Senate Democrats standing firm throughout the 2011 session, we'd have no growth in K-12 education budgets for two years in Iowa rather than just one.

The League of Women Voters of Cedar Rapids and Marion hosted Mathis, Golding and Constitution Party candidate Jon Tack on October 27. That forum wasn't live-streamed anywhere to my knowledge, so I had to rely on James Q. Lynch's report for the Cedar Rapids Gazette. It sounds as if there were fewer sharp exchanges between the candidates the second time around. Both candidates repeated their opposition to raising the gasoline tax. Tack spoke against a gas tax increase as well.

Both Mathis and Golding described education as a high priority, but Golding indicated that she would not support increasing state funding for education. Governor Terry Branstad's education reform proposals would certainly cost more money to implement.

On commercial property taxes, Mathis endorsed an approach that would help primarily small businesses. That sounds similar to what Senate Democrats proposed during the 2011 legislative session. House Republicans and Branstad favored larger commercial property tax cuts for all businesses, but I haven't seen Golding directly endorse that approach. At the League of Women Voters forum, Golding asserted that Mathis' proposal would hurt services currently funded through property taxes.

Golding may have contradicted herself at one point in last night's forum. Referring to education spending, Golding said Iowa has "a limited pot of money":

She wants to see Iowa "once again become No. 1 in the nation and do that within the constraints of the current budget without asking taxpayers to dig deeper in their pockets, with finding ways to conserve money and put tax dollars to our critical needs."
She would seek to alleviate the property tax burden by requiring the state to fully fund those services it mandates, such as mental-health programs. Golding said she lobbied to preserve some of those services after former governor Chet Culver's 10 percent across-the-board cut.
"We need to fund critical services, but not on the backs of property taxpayers," she said.

I don't understand how state legislators can fully fund mental health and other services while also holding the line on the overall state budget. The Iowa House and Senate need to pass a plan restructuring mental health programs during the 2012 session, and it's going to cost a significant chunk of change.

For those interested in how Golding and Mathis are presenting themselves to Senate district 18 voters, Iowa Independent posted photos of several direct-mail pieces from each candidate. Golding seems to be hitting all the important Republican notes. I doubt Tack's third-party campaign will affect GOP prospects unless he starts making a more direct conservative case against Golding. From what I've seen, she is not giving him openings there.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

UPDATE: Jeff Patch of The Iowa Republican blog uploaded this video of the October 26 debate to YouTube:

I am still not aware of any online video showing the League of Women forum on October 27.

Competitive GOP primary coming in Iowa Senate district 48

desmoinesdem — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 11:24:45 GMT

Two men from Delaware County, Dan Zumbach and Brian Cook, have declared their intention to seek the Republican nomination in the new Iowa Senate district 48. Their plans indicate that a competitive GOP primary will determine Democrat Nate Willems' opponent whether or not Cindy Golding of Linn County follows through on her plans to run in Senate district 48 next year as well. Golding is the GOP nominee for the November 8 special election in Iowa Senate district 18.

A district map and background on Zumbach and Cook are after the jump.
Senate district 48 covers all of Delaware County, most of Linn County outside Cedar Rapids and its suburbs, part of Jones County (including the towns of Anamosa and Monticello), and a small area in Buchanan County.

Independents are the largest voter group in Senate district 48, and neither major party has a registration advantage. The district contained 11,553 Democrats, 11,552 Republicans and 15,559 no-party voters as of April 2011.

No current state senator lives in the new district 48. Two-term Democratic State Representative Nate Willems announced his candidacy almost immediately after Iowa's redistricting plan was finalized. Willems lives in Lisbon, one of the Linn County communities in the new district.

Dan Zumbach told the Delaware County Republican Central Committee in July that he planned to run in Senate district 48. He filed a statement of organization with the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board in August. This week he launched his campaign website and sent out a press release outlining his background and philosophy:

Zumbach said today, "I have been out meeting with voters and listening to their concerns. They are wanting to see the size of the state budget be reduced, remove burdensome business regulations, and work to improve and enhance our education system. I will take these ideas and concerns to Des Moines if the voters decide to elect me."
Zumbach and his family farm in the Ryan area. Dan served on the West Delaware School Board, the Delaware County Fair Board, and several terms on the church council. Dan is currently a 4-H leader and also an official for the Iowa High School Athletic Association. Dan and his wife Michelle have four children and have been married for 27 years. They are members of Peace Lutheran Church in Ryan.
"I live and work in this district every day and have all my life. I passionately care for the concerns and the people in my district."
"I am a fiscal conservative and understand the importance of working within our means. We must allow more creativity in the process so we can spend smarter and more efficiently. Iowans are intelligent and creative people. We need to get back to work together again to provide real solutions which every Iowan will feel in each of their lives," Zumbach continued.

Brian Cook announced his candidacy in Senate district 48 nearly a month ago at the Delaware County GOP fall dinner. Some weekly newspapers in the district picked up on his announcement, but unfortunately none of those papers post their archives online. The Monticello Express on October 12 covered Cook's remarks to the Delaware County Republicans and described his occupation as selling insurance from his home-based business in Manchester. I don't have a detailed bio for Cook, but he reportedly has worked as a newspaper editor in the past as well.

Cook's commitment to the race may not be as solid as Zumbach's. At this writing, he has not filed a statement of campaign organization with the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board. I couldn't find a campaign website either, and my attempts to reach the candidate by phone were unsuccessful. Cook announced plans to run against Representative Bruce Braley in Iowa's first Congressional district in February 2010. However, the following month he didn't file papers to qualify for the GOP primary ballot in IA-01 (pdf).

As I mentioned above, Cindy Golding is running for Senate district 18 now but told local Republicans that in 2012 she plans to run in Senate district 48. Her home lies in the district 48 part of Linn County as opposed to district 34, where Iowa's redistricting plan put most of the current Senate district 18.

John Deeth asserted that the timing of Zumbach's press release shortly before the special election "suggests both a lack of solid party support for Golding and a lowering of victory expectations." I think the timing makes more sense if Zumbach and Cook expect Golding to win the special election. Helping to deadlock the state Senate would make her a hero to Republicans across Iowa. I would think Zumbach and Cook want to undercut any sense of inevitability should Golding be successful in Linn County.

If Golding loses to Democrat Liz Mathis on November 8, her chances of becoming the 2012 nominee in Senate district 48 diminish significantly. But if she spends the early months of 2012 representing district 18 in the legislature, I believe she would be a strong primary candidate in district 48--particularly if she's the only woman in the race, and two men split the Delaware County primary vote. Senate district 48 lacks a dominant population center. According to the Iowa Secretary of State's office (pdf), Delaware County had 3,846 active registered GOP voters as of October 2011.

Any comments about the Senate district 48 campaign are welcome in this thread.

Iowa Senate district 18: Early vote lead for Liz Mathis

desmoinesdem — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 12:04:47 GMT

UPDATE: More recent absentee ballot numbers are here, and a precinct-level analysis of the early voting is here.

Two weeks before the special election in Iowa Senate district 18, the number of absentee ballots requested and returned favored Democratic candidate Liz Mathis over Republican Cindy Golding by a two to one margin. Details are after the jump, along with other recent news about the race.
According to the Linn County Auditor's Elections office, exactly 7,800 absentee ballots for the November 8 special election had been issued as of October 25. Of those ballots requested,

4,021 (51.6 percent) went to registered Democrats
1,930 (24.7 percent) went to Republicans
1,842 (23.6 percent) went to no-party voters
Seven went to to voters with some other registration.

At the close of business on October 25, the Linn County Auditor's office had received 2,312 absentee ballots for the special election. That number includes people who voted early in person at the auditor's office as well as those who filled out their absentee ballots at home. The returned ballots broke down as follows:

1,274 (55.1 percent) came from registered Democrats
614 (26.6 percent) came from Republicans
424 (18.3 percent) came from no-party voters.

It's not clear how much support each candidate has received from early no-party voters, since both parties are presumably contacting independents who were identified as supporters of their candidates in previous elections. But Iowa Democrats have certainly banked more votes for Mathis than Republicans have banked for Golding. Early GOTV was an important factor in the 2009 special election in Iowa House district 90. Democratic candidate Curt Hanson had about a 700-vote lead in absentee ballots going into election day and ended up winning that race by about 100 votes.

Early voting helps candidates by reducing the chance that bad weather on election day will keep supporters home. Absentee ballot drives also shrink the universe of voters who need to be contacted on November 8.

I wouldn't advise Democrats to start celebrating yet. Iowa Democrats lost several statehouse races in 2010 despite building big apparent leads in early voting. The Senate district 1 race in Sioux City was one example.

In addition, Iowa Republicans have generated a lot of early votes in past elections by mass-mailing absentee ballot request forms. It's possible that GOP-funded direct mail hasn't worked its way through the system yet and will produce a late wave of absentee voting for Golding.

Mathis raised more money than Golding during the early weeks of the special election campaign, but it's hard to tell which side will end up spending more money by November 8. Many outside groups are funding voter persuasion or mobilization efforts in Iowa Senate district 18. The National Organization for Marriage and Iowa-based FAMiLY Leader are putting a lot of money behind Golding. Labor unions and groups linked to organized labor are supporting Mathis with volunteers as well as campaign contributions.

I chose to donate to a GOTV drive being organized by Progressive Kick and Working Families Win rather than to the Mathis campaign directly, in part because major donors are matching gifts to the Progressive Kick Iowa Fund dollar for dollar.

Tonight and tomorrow night, Mathis and Golding will appear at candidate forums in the district. The Cedar Rapids Gazette and KCRG-TV are organizing tonight's event (7 pm at Linn-Mar High School, 3111 10th St., Marion). The League of Women Voters of Cedar Rapids/Marion are hosting the October 27 event (7 pm at the Kirkwood Training and Outreach Center, 3375 Armar Drive in Marion). Bleeding Heartland will cover news from those forums in a forthcoming post. If either candidate makes a big mistake, momentum could shift during the final ten days of campaigning.

I hope Mathis will not be afraid to draw contrasts between herself and Golding on specific issues. When Cedar Rapids Gazette columnist Todd Dorman asked the Democratic candidate about various policies, he didn't get many concrete answers. Golding was more forthcoming in her interview with Dorman. Then again, she also said some strange things. For instance,

She spent much of our interview condemning regulations she says are costly, even "silly," from health insurance mandates to unemployment taxes to the specific calendar dates the state uses to restrict applying manure to frozen ground.

I don't understand what Golding has against unemployment taxes. How else should state government fund unemployment benefits, which support the economy while serving as a critical safety net? The Golding campaign did not respond to my request to clarify whether the candidate is against unemployment benefits generally or believes that they should be funded through different means.

I am amazed that an organic farmer like Golding can't see the benefits of restricting the application of manure on frozen or snow-covered ground. The specific dates mentioned in Senate File 432, adopted in 2009, weren't pulled out of the air. They're in the statute because manure applied at certain times of the year is much more likely to end up in Iowa waterways.

I do think the Republican candidate made a valid point about job creation incentives:

Golding in particular panned Mathis' plan to give a $2,000 credit to businesses that hire unemployed Iowans.
"The reality of what it takes to make the decision to hire an employee is lost on people who have never hired an employee," Golding said. "If it's the wrong person, or if I do not have the business to sustain that person's salary, it will cost me a heck of a lot more than $2,000 if I have to lay off that person."

Both parties have supported tax credits to spur new hiring, but Golding is correct that no business owner would hire an employee solely to snag a $2,000 tax credit. Businesses hire when managers expect more demand for goods and services than the company can meet with its current workforce.

Mathis has put forward a bipartisan message and doesn't play up her party affiliation on her campaign website. She didn't even mention being a Democrat in this video paid for by the Iowa Democratic Party. Golding co-chairs the Linn County Republicans, but I was intrigued to see her distance herself from the state GOP. Dorman writes,

And she's critical of the "help" she's getting from the Republican Party of Iowa. Golding said she convinced the party to pull a TV ad comparing her Democratic opponent, Liz Mathis, to our "celebrity" president. She cringed when I mentioned it. Still, I noted this convincing came after the ad had run for quite a while.
"If it were me, we wouldn't even be doing television. This is a local campaign," Golding said.

I have not been able to find that commercial online. For whatever reason, the Iowa GOP didn't put the video on its YouTube channel. The ad doesn't mention Mathis by name but asserts that we don't need another celebrity politician like Barack Obama. As Dorman points out, the spot was in rotation for some time, so I wonder whether Golding had it pulled or whether the ad buy simply reached its natural end. Few campaign commercials run on television for more than a couple of weeks.

Any comments about the Senate district 18 campaign are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: The LGBT advocacy group One Iowa is also working on GOTV in Senate district 18. From a recent blog post:

With two weeks until the election, One Iowa supporters are stepping up and answering the call to action to make sure that the pro-equality voice is heard in SD 18. To date, our incredible volunteers have had over 1,200 conversations, have identified 700 new pro-equality voters, and have collected over 180 early votes in SD 18. Their efforts will make the difference in this election.
University of Northern Iowa has ramped up their efforts on campus to turn out voters, have been recruiting new volunteers and supporters and have been active on Facebook to help us get the word out. So far, they have had 4 phone banks and have had over 500 calls, and have identified nearly 300 new supporters! Way to go!

National Organization for Marriage all in for Cindy Golding

desmoinesdem — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 18:53:50 GMT

The National Organization for Marriage has started spending money supporting Republican candidate Cindy Golding in the Iowa Senate district 18 special election. After the jump I've posted the first direct-mail piece from the group, which puts a questionable spin on Golding's comments about marriage.

For now, NOM has pledged to support Golding "with a series of mailers and other activities" before November 8. Bob Vander Plaats' FAMiLY Leader organization will also be involved with the independent expenditures. NOM spent heavily on the 2009 Iowa House district 90 special election, paying for television and radio commercials as well as direct mail. Those efforts didn't stop Democrat Curt Hanson from winning by a narrow margin.

In case anyone has trouble reading the print, here's the text from the front side:

The Future of Iowa Hangs In the Balance
The Future of Marriage Hangs In the Balance
Cindy Golding Supports Traditional Marriage
Will let the People Vote!
Liz Mathis Supports Gay Marriage
No Vote of the People
VOTE for Cindy Golding to Protect Traditional Marriage
Special Election November 8th or vote in person today!

Here's the text from the flip side of the mailer:

The Future of Iowa Families In The Balance
[Next to photo of Liz Mathis] Liz Mathis
Supports Gay Marriage1
Supports Disgraced Former Supreme Court Judges Who Imposed Gay Marriage on Iowa2
Thinks Iowans Have No Right to Vote on Definition of Marriage in Iowa3
[in tiny print under Mathis photo]
1)LGBT community "dream candidate" Bilerico.com 9/21/2011
2)"I support the judges..." IowaOne.org 10/4/2011
3)IowaPolitics.com 9/28/2011
[Next to photo of Cindy Golding] Cindy Golding
Supports Traditional Marriage4
Supported Successful Effort to Oust Judges Who Imposed Gay Marriage5
Supports Giving Iowans the same right to vote on Marriage that 31 other states have had6
[in tiny print under Golding photo]
4) blogs.desmoinesregister.com 10/5/2011
5) "There has been a clamoring across the state to just have a voice" IowaOne.org 10/4
6) "I think it's something that the citizens of the state ought to vote on" IowaPolitics.com 9/28
The Choice is Clear - Protect Marriage in Iowa
Vote Cindy Golding on November 8
[in small print at the bottom]
Paid for by National Organization for Marriage, 2029 K Street NW, Suite 300, Washington, D.C. 2006, Brian Brown President, not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. Paid for by The Family Leader, 1100 N. Hickory Blvd., Suite 107, Pleasant Hill, IA 50327, Bob Vander Plaats President and CEO, not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.

Note: I did not see anything on the Des Moines Register blogs specifically quoting Golding as a supporter of "traditional marriage."

Where the direct-mail piece cites "IowaOne.org," I believe they mean the website of the LGBT advocacy group One Iowa (OneIowa.org).

I do not recall seeing Golding advocate against retaining the Iowa Supreme Court justices in 2010. The comment used to support that point ("there has been a clamoring" etc.) comes from this column by Todd Dorman of the Cedar Rapids Gazette. From the context, it's not clear where Golding stood on retaining Supreme Court justices.

The quote about "something that the citizens of the state ought to vote on" does not come from IowaPolitics.com's September 28 article about the Senate district 18 candidates. Rather, it comes from the same Todd Dorman column. He followed up and got this reply:

So Golding supports proposing the amendment. But does she support the actual amendment banning all same-sex unions?
"I support the people's right to voice an opinion on the amendment," Golding said.
"I have friends on both sides. I have friends who are gay couples and I have friends who are 100 percent opposed to gay couples. So I just stand on that. I believe the citizens of Iowa should have their day in the sun, their day to stand up and voice their opinion and put the whole issue to rest, up or down," Golding said.

That's quite different from NOM's spin on Golding's position.

That IowaPolitics.com article from September 28 explored the same question and got a similar answer:

Cindy Golding, a businesswoman from rural Cedar Rapids who's the Republican candidate in Iowa Senate District 18, told IowaPolitics.com that Iowans deserve to have a vote on the issue, but declined to shed light on her personal beliefs about same-sex marriage.
"I have friends who are in gay relationships, and friends who abhor gay relationships," Golding said, proposing that Iowans should make their own "cultural" decisions.

All in all, NOM's mailer was quite poorly-researched. That doesn't mean it won't be effective with their target audience, though.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

Incidentally, Golding also received the National Rifle Association's endorsement this week, based on her answers to their questionnaire. Democratic candidate Liz Mathis declined to fill out the NRA quesionnaire. It's not clear whether the NRA plans to spend any money on Golding's behalf in Senate district 18.

Iowa Senate district 18 news roundup

desmoinesdem — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 14:12:00 GMT

Only 20 days remain before the special election in Iowa Senate district 18. Both parties are spending heavily on the race, judging from campaign finance reports released yesterday.
The Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board posted disclosure forms for Democratic candidate Liz Mathis and Republican nominee Cindy Golding yesterday (pdf files). James Q. Lynch summarized the highlights:

Mathis reported raising $63,406 and spending $22,564, leaving her with $40,842 cash on hand for the final 20 days of the campaign.
Golding raised $44,808 and spent $35,549, leaving her with $9,258. [...]
The big difference in the campaigns' numbers is in what is called "in-kind contributions." Golding reported $69,418 in in-kind contributions, primarily from the Republican Party of Iowa. Mathis logged $292,426 of in-kind contributions with most coming from the Iowa Democratic Party. The funds, for the most part, went toward advertising, printing, postage and office supplies.

Hannah Hess reported at IowaPolitics.com,

More than $17,000 [for Mathis] came from political action committee ActBlue, a national clearinghouse for Democratic fundraising. Online donors select the campaign to which they want to contribute; then, Massachusetts-based ActBlue mails weekly checks.
Another $23,000, or more than 35 percent of Mathis' total, came from Iowa unions. Calls to Mathis regarding her stance on unions and collective-bargaining rights were not immediately returned Wednesday.
"Hers is an out-of-state, big union campaign," Golding spokesman Don McDowell said of the Democratic candidate. "Ours is a grassroots campaign that is based on Iowans that are ready to see a change in the way things are going in the Iowa Senate."
Golding reported raising $44,808, of which 40 percent came from conservative political action committees, or PACs. She collected $12,500 from Team Iowa PAC, a Republican PAC that has helped elect many Iowa GOP candidates.
Golding also received $5,000 from PursePAC, part of Purse Iowa, which helps elect female candidates who support fiscal responsibility, limited government and free-market issues.

The Team Iowa PAC is registered as a 527 organization (not a political action committee). Nick Ryan chairs Team Iowa PAC; he is better known to Bleeding Heartland readers as the founder of the 501(c)4 organization American Future Fund. Bruce Rastetter, who provided the American Future Fund's seed money, was also the largest financial supporter for Team Iowa PAC in 2008 and in 2010.

Hess observed that neither the LGBT advocacy group One Iowa nor Bob Vander Plaats' conservative organization FAMiLY Leader donated to the Senate district 18 candidates. But both Vander Plaats and One Iowa Executive Director Troy Price have commented on the importance of this special election. Political action committees and outside groups have often spent money on organizers or advertising in competitive Iowa House and Senate races without donating directly to either candidate.

The Iowa Democratic Party and Republican Party of Iowa have mobilized volunteers every weekend to knock on doors, distribute literature, and collect absentee ballot request forms in Senate district 18. A strong early voting effort greatly helped Democrat Curt Hanson in the 2009 special election in Iowa House district 90. The Iowa GOP improved its early voting program in 2010, and the final absentee ballot request numbers in Senate district 18 will indicate how much Republicans have stepped up their game for special elections. November 4 is the deadline for voters to request an absentee ballot by mail.

Mathis and Golding are scheduled to appear side by side twice next week. The Cedar Rapids Gazette and KCRG-TV are organizing a candidate forum on October 26 (7 pm at Linn-Mar High School, 3111 10th St., Marion). The League of Women Voters of Cedar Rapids/Marion are hosting another forum on October 27 (7 pm at the Kirkwood Training and Outreach Center, 3375 Armar Drive in Marion).

With many years of experience as a television news reporter and anchor, Mathis shouldn't have any trouble communicating with an audience. But Todd Dorman's latest column on this race worried me:

A month ago, Mathis was not a politician. So I guess it's not shocking that when I attempted to kick some questions her way, she often pulled away the football. Frustrating, but not shocking.
Differences with Golding? "I haven't really focused on what my opponent is doing," she said.
Raise the gas tax? "I need to talk to more people on both sides of the issue," Mathis said.
Cut income, corporate or property taxes? "I'm going to go back and talk to my constituents," she said.
Right to work, labor issues? "I'd have to look at the wording of the legislation," Mathis said.
On education, Mathis did point to "disconnects" in Gov. Terry Branstad's school reform blueprint. She wonders how the same governor who tried to slash public preschool funding now wants high-stakes reading tests for third-graders. She also worries that too much testing will shove aside time for students to stoke creativity and imagination.

Obviously no candidate wants to go out of her way to offend an important constituency, but playing it too safe has drawbacks. According to Dorman, Golding excelled in the Q and A at the Republican nominating convention: "during questioning, it became clear that Golding was the most articulate, enthusiastic, prepared and polished candidate" of the three Republicans running.

I see trouble ahead for Mathis if she appears evasive or afraid to take a stand at next week's forums, especially if Golding answers questions in a straightforward, confident way.

Mathis and Golding won't be the only names on the Senate district 18 ballot. Constitution Party member Jon Tack of Hiawatha filed as a candidate last week as well. John Deeth predicts that Tack will hurt Golding due to the Constitution Party's conservative orientation. In the 2009 Iowa House district 90 special election, two minor candidates received more votes than the margin separating Hanson from Republican Stephen Burgmeier.

Tack ran for Congress as the Constitution Party candidate in Iowa's second district in 2010. He won 2,463 votes district-wide (a little more than 1 percent). Linn County residents cast 785 votes for Tack in that race. Senate district 18 is fairly balanced politically, and Iowa has had many statehouse races decided by tiny margins, so even a hundred or two votes for Tack could become important. I can't think why Constitution Party supporters would find Golding lacking--she's no moderate. But then, neither was Burgmeier.

Any comments about the special election are welcome in this thread.

Another Iowa Senate Republican calls for leader to step down

desmoinesdem — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 13:13:26 GMT

State Senator Bill Dix lacked the votes to follow through on his recent attempt to replace Paul McKinley as Iowa Senate Minority Leader, but he doesn't appear ready to abandon the effort. On Wednesday State Senator Rick Bertrand publicly called for McKinley to step aside.
Jason Clayworth reported for the Des Moines Register that Bertrand commented on Senate leadership during a business roundtable in Sioux City:

"It's no secret there is a clear and healthy divide within the Republican Senate and I believe it is time to make a change in leadership," Bertrand said. "I have great respect for Sen. McKinley and his service as we share many of the same conservative and business values, but it has become painfully clear that he has lost the ability lead this caucus." [...]
"Our Senate members have innovative ideas and skills, and it is time we Senate Republicans put a leader in place that will stand up to" Senate Majority Leader Michael "Gronstal's bullying and procedural tactics," Bertrand said. "We need a leader who can organize our agenda, instill confidence in our donors, and earn the respect of our Governor and House colleagues."

Dix raised a ton of money for his Senate district 9 campaign last year, thanks in part to his connections with Iowans for Tax Relief. A few months before election day, Democrats pulled back on their efforts in the Republican-leaning district 9. Dix then donated $60,000 to the Butler County Republican Party, which distributed it to several Republican Senate candidates. Bertrand's campaign collected $15,000, which may have helped him narrowly win a Democratic-leaning open district in Sioux City.

Another newly-elected Senate Republican, Sandy Greiner, endorsed Dix's leadership challenge two weeks ago, saying McKinley had not done enough organizing for the November 8 special election in Senate district 18.

Craig Robinson sounds disgusted with both sides:

Dix openly challenged McKinley on Tuesday, September 27th, and McKinley hasn't been back in the state since then. That's 17 days that McKinley, the Republican leader in the State Senate, has been A.W.O.L. While it is rumored that McKinley now is back on U.S. soil, he will not return to Iowa until later this weekend after a legislative conference he is attending. In all, McKinley has been absent for nearly 20 days.
Being gone for 20 days is a very long time when you consider that McKinley will have been absent for nearly half the days that will make up entire period of time in which the special election in Senate District 18 will take place. With that being the case, it's easy to understand why some Senate Republicans are frustrated and fed up with McKinley.[...]
Bertrand's frustration is understandable, but why go public with this now and not when Dix openly challenged McKinley? The reason why Dix is not the leader of the Senate today is because he lost the public relations battle when he allowed McKinley's supporters in the Senate to spin his leadership challenge as a cowardly and illegitimate move. As a result, Dix lost some key votes and thus had to revoke his challenge. [...] publicly calling on McKinley to resign now does nothing but distract from the task at hand in Senate District 18.
The only person who all of this drama helps is Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal. Instead of Republicans pulling together to gain equal control of the chamber, they appear to be more interested with internal politics than helping Cindy Golding be successful in Senate District 18.

McKinley has scheduled a caucus for Republican senators in Des Moines on November 10. If Golding wins the special election, perhaps McKinley can survive as minority leader. If Liz Mathis keeps the Iowa Senate in Democratic hands, the knives will surely be out.

Speaking of Republican alliances, the longtime former leader of Iowans for Tax Relief, Ed Failor, has joined forces with a rising Republican star:

Whitaker Strategy Group to Offer Lobbying and Consulting
Former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker is starting a new venture, Whitaker Strategy Group, a lobbying and consulting practice. Ed Failor, Jr. will serve as Chief Operating Officer.
"We intend to establish a model that promotes business and job growth in Iowa by assisting clients as they navigate the path to success in Iowa.", Whitaker said.
Whitaker served as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Iowa from 2004-2009. He is a graduate of the University of Iowa Law School and also is the managing partner of a Des Moines law firm.
Failor commented, "It's exciting to work toward helping clients find success in Iowa in the government relations arena.".
Ed Failor, Jr. most recently served as President of Iowans for Tax Relief. He held a number of positions, including lobbyist, for the organization over the last 16 years.
Whitaker Strategy Group is located in Des Moines.

Failor and other senior staffers at Iowans for Tax Relief abruptly left the organization in April of this year.

Whitaker is the senior partner in a law firm along with Republican State Representative Chris Hagenow. Governor Terry Branstad's legal counsel Brenna Findley joined the Whitaker-Hagenow firm last year during her unsuccessful campaign against Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller.

Romney leads, Cain surges to second in new Iowa poll

desmoinesdem — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 18:49:11 GMT

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney narrowly leads while former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain has surged to second place, according to a new NBC News-Marist poll of Iowa Republicans. Meanwhile, President Barack Obama is slightly ahead of both Romney and Texas Governor Rick Perry among registered Iowa voters.
MSNBC published the questionnaire and full results here. Marc Murray summed up the highlights:

In the Hawkeye State, Romney gets the support of 23 percent of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers - identified based on interest, chance of voting and past participation - and Cain gets 20 percent.
They are followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 11 percent, while Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann are tied at 10 percent. Sixteen percent are undecided.
Among Tea Party supporters - who make up half of all likely Iowa caucus-goers in the poll - Cain is ahead of Romney, 31 to 15 percent. And among those who "strongly" support the Tea Party, Cain's lead is a whopping 41 to 7 percent. [...]
Just 42 percent of all registered voters in Iowa approve of Obama's performance as president, and it's lower in New Hampshire - with his approval rating at just 38 percent.
In hypothetical general-election matchups, Obama leads Romney by three points in Iowa, 43 to 40 percent, and he leads Perry by nine, 46 to 37 percent.

Marist surveyed 2,836 registered Iowa voters between October 3 and 5, producing a low margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percent for the full sample. That includes devastating results on "right direction" (21 percent) versus "wrong track" (68 percent). It's shocking that Obama is slightly ahead of two named Republican competitors with those numbers and only 42 percent approval for the president.

The margin of error is higher (plus or minus 5.1 percent) for results from the subsample of 371 likely GOP caucus-goers. For those curious about the second tier, just 4 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers said they supported former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 2 percent supported former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum. Former Utah Governor John Huntsman and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson each had the support of 1 percent of respondents.

Recent nationwide and Iowa surveys have shown a slide for Bachmann and Perry, but even so, Cain's resurgence is impressive. He appeared to be gaining ground in Iowa this spring before Bachmann stole his fire with conservatives and tea party supporters. Cain has few staffers working Iowa and has hardly campaigned here since the Ames straw poll in August. I assume he has benefited from his strong performances in televised debates where Perry faltered.

Cain also finished second behind Romney in a new nationwide poll for Bloomberg and the Washington Post, although 29 percent of that survey's GOP-leaning respondents said they had no opinion on who they wanted to become the Republican presidential nominee. Among those who expressed an opinion, 24 percent favored Romney, 16 percent supported Cain, 13 percent supported Perry and all other candidates were below 10 percent.

After mostly writing off Iowa this spring and summer, Romney may be starting to get the idea he can win this state. Bachmann, Perry and Cain have bounced up and down while Romney's support has held steady around the low 20s all year. The candidate's wife, Ann Romney, was here a few days ago campaigning for Cindy Golding in the Iowa Senate district 18 special election. Romney's campaign announced today that he will campaign in western Iowa on October 20.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is expected to endorse Romney today, a few hours before eight Republican candidates will debate again in New Hampshire. Romney rolled out former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty's endorsement shortly before a televised debate in Florida last month.

Any comments about the presidential campaign are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Christie on Romney:

"I'm here in New Hampshire today for one simple reason: America cannot survive another four years of Barack Obama, and Mitt Romney's the man we need to lead America, and we need him now," Christie said. [...]
Christie's endorsement is of tremendous symbolic endorsement for Romney, who's worked to get the GOP establishment to rally around his candidacy in the week since the New Jersey governor declined to seek the presidency.
The New Jersey governor already went on the attack on Romney's behalf, too; Christie decried words on Friday from a Texas pastor, speaking in favor of Perry, who called Romney's Mormon religion a "cult," and Christie called attacks on Romney's health care law as governor "intellectually dishonest."
"These types of religious matters have nothing to do with the quality of somebody's ability to lead," Christie said. "I think that any campaign that associates itself with that type of comment is beneath the office of president of the United States, in my view."

Dix lacked votes to oust McKinley as Senate Republican leader

desmoinesdem — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 18:06:19 GMT

Two days ago, State Senator Bill Dix asked Senate Republicans to caucus this morning in Des Moines. He planned to call for a leadership election during that meeting, while current Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley is vacationing out of the country.

Unfortunately for Dix, he didn't have the votes.
Dix has long been rumored to want the top spot in the Senate GOP caucus. He attended all three nominating conventions for special Senate elections during the past year, while McKinley attended none. Generally, McKinley is seen as a weak politician compared to Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal. McKinley didn't help his cause by going on vacation a few weeks before the special election in Senate district 18.

State Senator Sandy Greiner, a Dix supporter, told Rod Boshart this week that in her opinion, Dix wouldn't call for an election "unless he was pretty sure he has the votes." Greiner was wrong about that. Craig Robinson reports at The Iowa Republican that Dix backed off from his request to caucus today. Robinson vents:

There is no way to sugarcoat what has transpired in the last few days. If you don't realize how dysfunctional things are, all you need to know is that the Republican House Leaders are leading the effort in Senate District 18, not Senate leadership. [...] In fact, the incompetency of the Senate team raises the question about whether or not they are even capable to doing what it takes to win a majority at all. [...]
A number of people have criticized Dix for challenging McKinley when he is out of the county on vacation. McKinley being on vacation while the balance of the senate is up for grabs is a major problem. [...]
TheIowaRepublican.com has been told that Dix had the votes to oust McKinley during the last legislative session but to failed to pull the trigger. [...]
Obviously Dix thought he had the votes to take out McKinley when he emailed his Republican colleagues on Tuesday morning. However, Dix made a major tactical error. He never made sure that his votes were able to be in Des Moines at the time he called for the caucus to take place.
His lack of organizational and communication skills is what did in his attempt to take control of the Senate Republican caucus.[...]
Dix is now credited for causing a distraction, and in doing so, has forfeited any future opportunities to become the Senate Republican Leader.

No doubt about it, Dix comes out of this fiasco looking like an idiot. Still, I'm not convinced he couldn't fight McKinley successfully another day. The Iowans for Tax Relief crowd have been pushing his career for a long time.

Dix's failed leadership challenge spotlighted McKinley's surprising hands-off approach to the special election in Senate district 18. McKinley has scheduled the next Senate Republican caucus for November 10, two days after that election. If Democrat Liz Mathis wins that race, some Republicans will blame McKinley for not fully engaging senators in the campaign. Greiner commented on Tuesday, "Quite frankly, I'm stunned there doesn't seem to be a lot of focus on this special election in our caucus. We need the help of all the senators, we just need everybody to pitch in."

What do you think, Bleeding Heartland readers?