Bleeding Heartland - SD-48

Democratic and Republican party spending in the Iowa Senate races

desmoinesdem — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 01:16:09 GMT

Candidates for the Iowa legislature were required to submit campaign finance disclosure reports on October 19 and November 2. The Schedule E forms on "In-Kind Contributions" contained the most interesting numbers, because they showed how Democratic and Republican party leaders are allocating resources across the battleground districts.

After the jump I've enclosed in-kind contribution figures for the Senate districts expected to be in play tomorrow. Candidates running in other Senate races did not report large in-kind contributions from their respective parties.
Republican candidates for the Iowa Senate received the bulk of their in-kind contributions from the "Republican Party of Iowa and its Eisenhower Club." For brevity, I'm calling that the Iowa GOP below. Senate Minority Leader Jerry Behn reported giving $60,000 to the state party on his October 19 filing and more than $185,000 to the party on his November 2 filing. Senate Minority Whip Brad Zaun gave just $5,000 to the Polk County Republican Party and $11,500 to his party's Senate majority fund--a heck of a lot less than I'd expect for an ambitious politician. Keep in mind that Zaun represents wealthy precincts in Urbandale and doesn't have a general election opponent this year. I thought he would follow the example of his Senate colleague Bill Dix, who spread his campaign cash around to several GOP Senate challengers in the fall of 2010.

Democratic candidates for the Iowa Senate received the bulk of their in-kind contributions from the Iowa Senate Majority Fund or from the Iowa Democratic Party. Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal donated more than $900,000 from his Senate campaign account to the state party.

All of the numbers given below reflect in-kind contributions.

Senate district 6

Mary Bruner reported $106,526.72 from the Iowa Senate Majority Fund (October 19 disclosure) and did not file a November 2 disclosure.

Mark Segebart reported $3,467.10 from the Iowa GOP (October 19 disclosure) and $31,306.68 from the Iowa GOP (November 2 disclosure).

Senate district 8

Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal reported $135,072.44 from the Iowa Democratic Party (October 19 disclosure) and $57,597.02 from the Iowa Democratic Party (November 2 disclosure).

Al Ringgenberg reported $73,281.10 from the Iowa GOP (October 19 disclosure) and $74,943.06 from the Iowa GOP (November 2 disclosure).

Senate district 26

Mary Jo Wilhelm reported $224,922.92 from the Iowa Senate Majority Fund (October 19 disclosure) and $157,288 from the Iowa Senate Majority Fund (November 2 disclosure).

Merlin Bartz reported $35,605.84 from the Iowa GOP (October 19 disclosure) and $65,462.05 from the Iowa GOP plus $7,545.47 from the Team Iowa PAC (November 2 disclosure). Nick Ryan runs the Team Iowa PAC; he is better known to Bleeding Heartland readers as the leader of the 501(c)4 group American Future Fund.

Senate district 28

John Beard reported $144,752.56 from the Iowa Senate Majority Fund (October 19 disclosure) and $138,284.72 from the Iowa Senate Majority Fund (November 2 disclosure).

Mike Breitbach reported $39,149.27 from the Iowa GOP (October 19 disclosure) and $43,721.41 from the Iowa GOP (November 2 disclosure).

Senate district 30

Senator Jeff Danielson reported $27,000 from the Iowa Senate Majority Fund (October 19 disclosure) and $118,913.00 from the Iowa Senate Majority Fund (November 2 disclosure).

Matt Reisetter reported $48,433.80 from the Iowa GOP (October 19 disclosure) and $105,153.70 from the Iowa GOP (November 2 disclosure).

Senate district 32

Senator Brian Schoenjahn reported $60,527.56 from the Iowa Democratic Party (October 19 disclosure) and $49,179.36 from the Iowa Democratic Party (November 2 disclosure).

Elliott Henderson reported $36,977.91 from the Iowa GOP (October 19 disclosure) and $44,442.59 from the Iowa GOP (November 2 disclosure)

Senate district 34

Senator Liz Mathis reported $40,455.24 from the Iowa Democratic Party (October 19 disclosure) and $20,670 from the Iowa Democratic Party (November 2 disclosure).

Republican challenger Ryan Flood did not report in-kind contributions from the Iowa GOP.

Senate district 36

Senator Steve Sodders reported $134,281.10 from the Iowa Senate Majority Fund (October 19 disclosure) and $224,972.93 from the Iowa Senate Majority Fund (November 2 disclosure).

Jane Jech reported $32,041.26 from the Iowa GOP (October 19 disclosure) and $14,636.04 from the Iowa GOP (November 2 disclosure).

Senate district 42

Rich Taylor reported $144,531.64 from the Iowa Senate Majority Fund (October 19 disclosure) and $106,309.12 from the Iowa Senate Majority Fund (November 2 disclosure).

Larry Kruse reported $26,315.33 from the Iowa GOP (October 19 disclosure) and $12,128.17 from the Iowa GOP (November 2 disclosure).

Senate district 46

Chris Brase reported $166,469.54 from the Iowa Democratic Party (October 19 disclosure) and $157,452.28 from the Iowa Democratic Party (November 2 disclosure).

Senator Shawn Hamerlinck reported $30,318.61 from the Iowa GOP (October 19 disclosure) and did not file a November 2 disclosure report.

Senate district 48

Nate Willems reported $236,773.38 from the Iowa Senate Majority Fund (October 19 disclosure) and $41,000 from the Iowa Senate Majority Fund (November 2 disclosure).

Dan Zumbach reported $22,952.00 from the Iowa GOP (October 19 disclosure) and $54,148.16 from the Iowa GOP (November 2 disclosure).

Senate district 49

Rita Hart reported $186,598.07 from the Iowa Senate Majority Fund (October 19 disclosure) and $103,322.80 from the Iowa Senate Majority Fund (November 2 disclosure).

Andrew Naeve reported $24,323.82 from the Iowa GOP (October 19 disclosure) and $10,155.66 from the Iowa GOP (November 2 disclosure).

Four strategies for interest group Iowa legislative endorsements

desmoinesdem — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 13:47:54 GMT

Many candidates for the Iowa House and Senate tout endorsements by outside groups in their campaign communications. Some of those groups pay for direct mail, phone calls, or even advertising supporting their endorsed candidates.

Iowa's influential political action committees and advocacy groups have very different ways of getting involved in the state legislative campaign. Follow me after the jump for examples of four distinct strategies.
Bipartisan, focused on protecting incumbents

For many corporate or industry-aligned PACs, giving money to elected officials in both parties is an insurance policy. We see the same phenomenon in Iowa as some organizations endorse numerous state representatives and senators from both parties for re-election. Two good examples come to mind: the Iowa Corn Growers Association PAC and the Iowa Credit Unions League.

The Corn Growers PAC endorsed 67 incumbents for re-election but no challengers or candidates in open House and Senate districts.

For Iowa Senate (13):
Merlin Bartz (R), Jerry Behn (R), Thomas Courtney (D), Jeff Danielson (D), Dick Dearden (D), Joni Ernst (R), Randy Feenstra (R), Mike Gronstal (D), Shawn Hamerlinck (R), Tim Kapucian (R), Brian Schoenjahn (D), Steve Sodders (D), and Mary Jo Wilhelm (D).
For Iowa House of Representatives (54):
Dwayne Alons (R), Chip Baltimore (R), Clel Baudler (R), Josh Byrnes (R), Dennis Cohoon (D), Peter Cownie (R), Dave Deyoe (R), Cecil Dolecheck (R), Jack Drake (R), Greg Forristall (R), Joel Fry (R), Julian Garrett (R), Pat Grassley (R), Bob Hager (R), Chris Hall (D), Curt Hanson (D), Mary Ann Hanusa (R), David Heaton (R), Bill Heckroth (D), Lisa Heddens (D), Lee Hein (R), Dan Huseman (R), Ron Jorgensen (R), Anesa Kajtazovic (D), Jerry Kearns (D), Dan Kelley (D), Jarad Klein (R), Kevin Koester (R), Bob Kressig (D), Jim Lykam (D), Mary Mascher (D), Kevin McCarthy (D), Helen Miller (D), Brian Moore (R), Dan Muhlbauer (D), Patrick Murphy (D), Steve Olson (R), Kraig Paulsen (R), Ross Paustian (R), Brian Quirk (D), Henry Rayhons (R), Walt Rogers (R), Kirsten Running-Marquardt (D), Thomas Sands (R), Renee Schulte (R), Jason Schultz (R), Jeff Smith (R), Mark Smith (D), Chuck Soderberg (R), Roger Thomas (D), Linda Upmeyer (R), Matt Windschitl (R), John Wittneben (D) and Gary Worthan (R).

Some of those incumbents are unopposed, while others are fighting for their political lives. Many have been members of agriculture and/or appropriations committees in the Iowa House or Senate during the past two years.

The Iowa Credit Union League endorsed 58 Iowa House candidates, including many from each party. Most are incumbents or candidates in open-seat races. The only challenger on the list is Tom Schueller, and he's a former incumbent who lost his Iowa House seat in 2010.

The credit unions group is also backing 25 senators or Senate candidates. A few will not be up for re-election until 2014. The others are a mixture of incumbents and candidates in open-seat races.

Support is not determined by party affiliation or on political ideology, but rather on where candidates stand on the import issues facing credit unions and their members. In the case of incumbents, it's based on their voting record on important credit union issues as well as responses to our candidate questionnaire. In the case of challengers and open seat candidates, it's based on the questionnaire and, many times, in-person conversations with credit union and ICUL staff. The analysis is thorough and substantive.
As a result of this non-political analysis, credit unions are supporting Republicans and Democrats at almost equal levels in 2012. The amount of CUPAC contributions that have been provided to state legislative candidates is very close to 50/50. In short, support is based on policy, not politics.

The Iowa Credit Union PAC has sent direct mail on behalf of three incumbent senators in tough races: Democrat Jeff Danielson (Senate district 30) and Republicans Merlin Bartz (Senate district 26) and Shawn Hamerlinck (Senate district 46). The eye-catching mail pieces advocating for Bartz, Hamerlinck, and Danielson have a similar look and feel. No matter which party gains control of the Iowa Senate, someone in the majority caucus will be particularly grateful to the credit unions.

Bipartisan, but willing to take on unfriendly incumbents

Some interest groups are willing to support any incumbent who supports their agenda, regardless of party. At the same time, they don't hesitate to endorse challengers to lawmakers who vote against their agenda. The National Rifle Association is a good example. You can view their 2012 endorsements for Iowa here, along with grades for all of the sitting legislators up for re-election. Although the NRA backs a lot more Republicans than Democrats, two Democratic senators (Tom Courtney and Dick Dearden) did receive the group's seal of approval. Dearden championed the return of dove-hunting to Iowa and has led the charge against restricting dove hunters' use of lead ammunition.

The NRA isn't supporting any Iowa House Democrats this year, because the whole House Democratic caucus opposed "stand your ground" legislation during the 2012 session. Many Republican challengers have the NRA's backing.

But during the 2010 campaign, the NRA endorsed lots of Democratic lawmakers as well as Governor Chet Culver. That year, a Democratic-controlled Iowa House and Senate passed legislation making it easier to obtain a permit to carry a concealed weapon.

Partisan, but mostly leaving incumbents alone

The Iowa Industry PAC, affiliated with the Iowa Association of Business and Industry, is a good example of an interest group with a mostly partisan approach to elections. The Iowa Industry PAC describes itself as "non-partisan," supporting candidates from both parties. In reality, this group backs only a handful of token Democrats during each election cycle. In 2010, the PAC endorsed only three Democratic senators (two at no risk of losing) and a few House Democrats who had helped block pro-labor legislation.

~~This year, Brian Quirk and Dave Jacoby are the only Iowa House Democrats to receive the Iowa Industry PAC's endorsement.~~ Neither has a general election opponent on the ballot (pdf). CORRECTION: The Iowa Industry PAC endorsed seven Democratic Iowa House candidates. Three have no opponent on the ballot (Quirk, Jacoby, and Nancy Dunkel). Two are in districts Democrats should win easily (Helen Miller and Sally Stutsman). The other two are in heavily contested seats (Dan Muhlbauer and Joe Riding).

Meanwhile, only two sitting Senate Democrats received the Iowa Industry PAC's 2012 endorsement, Liz Mathis and Steve Sodders. A few months ago, political insiders expected both to win re-election, although the Sodders race in Senate district 36 is up in the air.

Whereas the truly bipartisan Iowa Credit Union PAC endorsed many Democrats and Republicans running for open seats, the Iowa Industry PAC endorsed ~~solely~~ mostly Republicans in House and Senate districts lacking an incumbent. (Correction: Riding, Stutsman, and Dunkel are running in open seats.) Clearly this PAC wants Republicans to hold their Iowa House majority and take control of the Iowa Senate.

That said, the Iowa Industry PAC appears less willing to make waves than the NRA. Only two GOP challengers have the PAC's official endorsement: Matt Reisetter (Danielson's opponent in Senate district 30) and Allen Burt (running against Mark Smith in House district 71).

Majority-making ideological: partisan and actively opposing unfriendly incumbents

For some interest groups, one political party is clearly more in line with the legislative agenda. Those groups can only hope to exercise real influence when that party is in the majority. So, labor unions endorse many Democratic incumbents and some (but not all) challengers to sitting Republicans. That's not to say a labor union wouldn't endorse a pro-labor Republican if one existed, but Iowans aren't likely to see that kind of candidate in my lifetime.

On the other side of the spectrum, social conservative groups like Iowa Right to Life and the FAMiLY Leader (formerly the Iowa Family Policy Center) endorse a wide range of Republican incumbents, challengers, and candidates for open seats. Bleeding Heartland covered the FAMiLY Leader's spending in 2012 legislative races here.

There are no longer any pro-choice Republicans in the Iowa House or Senate. In the old days, a handful used to receive support from Planned Parenthood's PAC. Now Planned Parenthood Voters of Iowa endorses only certain Democratic candidates.

The Iowans for Tax Relief PAC endorsed 13 state legislative candidates this year, all Republicans: incumbents Jerry Behn, Chip Baltimore, and Guy Vander Linden; challengers Matt Reisetter, Jim Kenyon, Jane Jech, Mark Nelson, and Mike Klimesh; and open-seat candidates John Landon, Dan Zumbach, Greg Heartsill, Andrew Naeve, and Amy Sinclair. Usually this group endorses more Republicans, but during the past year a bunch of GOP legislators and candidates have expressed support for raising the gasoline tax.

I would put the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation's PAC in this category too, because they are heavily skewed toward the Republican side, despite endorsing a few token Democrats like the Iowa Industry PAC does. The Farm Bureau survey for legislative candidates includes a few questions that have little apparent relevance for farmers but come straight out of GOP talking points:

3. Do you believe that one-time money, such as the state's ending fund balance, should be spent on one-time expenditures or on-going expenses? [...]
11. Do you support expanding the scope of negotiation under Iowa 's collective bargaining law? [...]
14. Do you support voters registering and voting on the same day?

This year the Farm Bureau refused to release their full list of Iowa legislative endorsements, but Republican press releases posted here show that mostly GOP candidates got the "Friend of Agriculture" nod, including incumbents Jerry Behn and Pat Ward, challenger Jane Jech, and open-seat candidates Amy Sinclair, Andrew Naeve, Michael Breitbach, Larry Kruse, and Mark Segebart. I am not aware of any sitting Democrats endorsed as "Friends of Agriculture" other than Senator Brian Schoenjahn.

Notably, three Republicans were endorsed by both the Farm Bureau Federation and Iowans for Tax relief: Behn, Jech, and Naeve. All three of their races are important for the GOP's quest for a Senate majority. Supporting the gas tax hike is a good thing from the Farm Bureau's perspective but anathema to Iowans for Tax Relief, which explains some of the Republican names missing from each group's endorsement list.

Iowa Senate ad watch: I-JOBS lies edition (updated)

desmoinesdem — Wed, 24 Oct 2012 11:45:00 GMT

The I-JOBS infrastructure bonding initiative helped fund more than 1,600 infrastructure projects around Iowa during the "Great Recession." From the beginning, Republicans have used misleading rhetoric to make their case against I-JOBS. Terry Branstad and GOP lawmakers exaggerated the initiative's costs and understated its benefits repeatedly during the 2010 campaign.

Now some Iowa Senate candidates are putting lies about I-JOBS at the center of their radio advertising.
Background: I-JOBS involved $875 million for infrastructure projects in 2009 and 2010, of which $65 million came from non-bonded sources and $810 million came from selling state bonds. I-JOBS targeted funding to the following areas:

* $185 million for improvements at community colleges, corrections facilities, and the Iowa Veterans Home;
* $100 billion for other state infrastructure, including at state parks;
* $118.5 million for reconstrction of local public buildings and flood control or prevention;
* $46.5 for flood recovery projects in Linn County and for fire stations in three other communities affected by flooding in 2008;
* $50 million for the Bridge Safety Fund to be used on obsolete or structurally deficient bridges;
* $3 million on studies and capital improvements related to passenger rail;
* $3.5 million for building and improving recreational trails;
* $1.5 million to improve railroad infrastructure, including money to repair railroad bridges damaged during the 2008 floods;
* $750,000 for infrastructure at Iowa airports;
* $1.25 million for the Public Transit Infrastructure Grant Fund;
* $10 million for competitive grants to fund road and street improvements in cities and counties;
* $45 million distributed among all Iowa cities and counties for road repairs and maintenance;
* $100 million to rebuild facilities on the University of Iowa campus that flooded in 2008;
* $15 million for a new veterinary hospital lab at Iowa State University;
* $35 million for sewer construction in small communities;
* $20 million for other local water improvement projects;
* $25 million for soil conservation, flood prevention, and other water quality projects;
* $20 million for affordable housing;
* $10 million for shelters serving homeless or abused Iowans, or Iowans needing protection from extreme weather;
* $5 million to fix homes damaged during the 2008 floods; and
* $35 million on telecommunications and renewable energy projects.

The I-JOBS bonding leveraged hundreds of millions more dollars in federal, state, local, and private funding for the infrastructure projects. For instance, the $100 million designated for flood recovery on the University of Iowa campus unlocked nearly $500 million in federal funding to repair those buildings.

Republicans argued that Iowa should pursue infrastructure projects only on a "pay as you go" basis, as if millions of Americans don't borrow to buy homes or expand businesses all the time. Borrowing at a time of historically low interest rates made sense and produced some social goods that will last for decades.

Even taking into account the I-JOBS bonding, Iowa's per capita state debt remained low by national standards. Given the poor condition of our bridges, I would argue that Iowa hasn't borrowed enough for infrastructure projects over the past several decades, but that's a topic for another day.

When Iowa House and Senate Democrats approved the I-JOBS program in April 2009, the cost of repaying the bonds was estimated at $1.7 billion. However, strong investor demand drove down the interest rate when most of the I-JOBS bonds were sold in July 2009. The lower rates reduced the long-term borrowing costs to about $1.1 billion.

The State budgeted $55 million annually from existing gaming revenue to finance the I-JOBS bonds without a tax increase. However, due to Iowa's AAA bond rating from Standard & Poor's, overall strong financial position, and the structure of the bonds, the annual debt service on the bonds will be approximately $43.2 million, which is funded by existing state gaming revenues.

It's important to note that the I-JOBS bonds are being repaid with gambling revenues, not appropriations from the state of Iowa's general fund.

Two Democrats who served in the Iowa House in 2009 are now running for competitive open Senate seats in northeast Iowa: John Beard in Senate district 28 and Nate Willems in Senate district 48. Their Republican opponents Michael Breitbach and Dan Zumbach are highlighting the I-JOBS vote in radio commercials:

"State legislators voted for the I-JOBS debt plan. They put Iowa families on the hook for 25 years and more than $1 billion," one ad says.
"They put Iowa families in debt for 20 years to the tune of $1 billion," says another ad.
Two ads, two races, with a nearly identical message. I-JOBS was a bad program and cost too much money.

Former State Senator Bill Heckroth, who is running in the open Iowa House district 63, was incensed by the radio ads.

I could not believe the number of political ads I heard on behalf of Republican Iowa Legislative candidates which were out-and-out lies related to the I-JOBS bonds. [...]
If you talk to any business person...and they set their politics aside...they will tell you that they would have done the same thing for their own business. At the time, we had almost record low bond interest rates. So, to utilize bonds and lock in great, low rates was a terrific job of managing our state's finances.
The first "false statement" being made about this "debt" is that it left the taxpayers of Iowa with this huge future burden. In fact, the ads I heard today actually claim that every Iowa taxpayer is on the hook for $1,000 of debt that has to be paid by our taxes. This is simply an out-and-out lie!! [...] [Neither] The "general fund", nor future tax revenues are being used nor will ever have to be used to pay off these bonds. Unless you are contributing to the gambling revenues, you are NOT paying for these bonds.
The 2nd "false statement" that is being made about the I-Jobs funding is that this money and these projects "created no new jobs". WOW...how is that for a distortion of the facts. Tell that to the thousands of hard-working Iowans who took home regular paychecks from these jobs so they could pay their mortgage and feed their families.

Governor Chet Culver originally predicted that I-JOBS would create more than 20,000 jobs during the recession. Iowa State University economist Dave Swenson estimated the bonding would create about 4,000 jobs. According to a 2010 report by the Iowa Department of Management, "For the month of June [2010] alone, I-JOBS has created or retained 7,079 jobs. That number doesn't count indirect jobs created or retained (such as employees who make asphalt purchased for road projects) or induced jobs (such as a restaurant that benefits from a nearby I-JOBS project)."

You can argue that I-JOBS didn't create enough jobs or fund enough worthwhile projects to justify the long-term borrowing costs, but you can't credibly claim that the infrastructure projects added nothing to local economies.

Unfortunately, I suspect that many listeners will believe that I-JOBS accomplished nothing and forced their families to repay the debt.

KWWL.com in Waterloo did a half-hearted fact check of the radio ads (although the story incorrectly stated that the bonds will cost $55 million per year to repay).

"If you take three million people in Iowa and an average family size of 2.8 people, a billion dollars comes down to about $1,000 per family," said Michael Breitbach, (R) Iowa Senate 28 candidate. [...]
But what about the cost to taxpayers?
"That money will be repaid with casino money, with casino revenue or fines collected by the state. So on a financial aspect of it, the idea taxpayers are on the hook is perhaps a little misleading," said Chris Larimer, KWWL Political Analyst.
"Whether you want to split hairs on if this is gambling revenues or other types of taxes, it's still revenue that's coming into the state that's being diverted away from other activities that's instead being used to pay down on this debt," said Breitbach.
"Casino revenue would be the primary source of servicing the debt, and liquor taxes the second. To say it's a taxpayer burden is simply inaccurate," Breitbach's opponent, Democrat John Beard, said.

In typical journalistic style, KWWL downplays a flat-out lie as "a little misleading" and uses "he said, he said" to evaluate the Republican ads. But I give them credit for attempting a bit of fact-checking. In 2010, few Iowa news media made any attempt to correct inaccurate claims about I-JOBS or other falsehoods that were staples of GOP attack advertising: the so-called "billion-dollar deficit" and non-existent heated sidewalks.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

P.S. Many Iowa House Republican candidates are highlighting false claims about I-JOBS and heated sidewalks in "voter guides." Bleeding Heartland will discuss GOP direct mail in future posts.

UPDATE: Jane Jech, the GOP nominee in Iowa Senate district 36, is using the same lies in a television ad against Democratic incumbent Steve Sodders. Here is my transcript of the commercial, which is running on WHO-TV in Des Moines.

Male voice-over: When state legislators voted for the I-JOBS debt bond plan, they put Iowa families in debt for 25 years to the tune of one billion dollars.
That's right: Steve Sodders voted to borrow one billion dollars on behalf of Iowa taxpayers. Now every Iowa family is on the hook to pay back one thousand dollars through their taxes.
Steve Sodders paid state bills with debt, rather than making the tough decisions to balance the budget.
Bottom line: Steve Sodders means more debt for us and less money in our pocket.

Four blatant lies in 30 seconds:

1. "Now every Iowa family is on the hook to pay back one thousand dollars through their taxes." No, gambling revenues are repaying the I-JOBS debt.

2. "Steve Sodders paid state bills with debt" No, I-JOBS funded capital projects, not ongoing state expenses.

3. "rather than making the tough decisions to balance the budget." No, Iowa's budget has been balanced every year.

4. "Steve Sodders means more debt for us and less money in our pocket." No, I-JOBS didn't take any money out of any Iowan's pocket, nor did it impose any personal debt on any citizen.

Incidentally, Senate district 36 includes Marshalltown, where I-JOBS funded major improvements at the Iowa Veterans Home.

Iowa primary election results thread

desmoinesdem — Wed, 06 Jun 2012 02:18:02 GMT

Polls closed across Iowa at 9 pm, and I will update this post periodically as results come in from around the states. Any comments related to today's elections are welcome in this thread.

P.S.- As expected, Wisconsin Democrats fell short in their effort to recall Republican Governor Scott Walker.

UPDATE: Results are after the jump.
Full vote totals and percentages are on the Iowa Secretary of State's website.

IA-01: Early returns show Rod Blum keeping it closer than expected with Republican establishment favorite Ben Lange. UPDATE: Wow, with nearly all the votes counted, Lange is leading Blum by only 52 percent to 47 percent. LATER UPDATE: I don't think anyone expected this primary to be so close. With all but two precincts in, it's Lange 52.8 percent, Blum 46.6 percent. FINAL: Lange 52.8 percent, Blum 46.6 percent. Imagine what might have happened if Blum had had a little more money to spend building his name recognition around the district.

IA-02: Early returns show John Archer ahead of Dan Dolan on the Republican side and Dave Loebsack way ahead of Joe Seng. UPDATE: With 255 of 425 precincts in, Loebsack has 86 percent of the vote, and Archer has a big lead on Dolan, 58 percent to 41 percent. LATER UPDATE: Loebsack's share of the vote has dropped below 80 percent. Archer has a commanding lead in the GOP primary. FINAL: Loebsack 81.5 percent, Seng 18.3 percent. The incumbent was smart not to waste a lot of money on the primary campaign. On the Republican side, Archer finished with 60.5 percent of the vote, to 39.3 percent for Dolan. Was his message more appealing, or did he mainly benefit from having started building his name recognition on tv and radio sooner?

State Senate: Crawford County Supervisor Mark Segebart looks to be on track to win the GOP nomination in open Senate district 6. Governor Branstad had endorsed Carroll Mayor Adam Schweers. UPDATE: With all but one precinct in, Segebart has 46.6 percent to 40.3 percent for Schweers.

Dennis Guth defeated GOP establishment favorite James Black in the open Senate district 4. The Democratic nominee will be Bob Jennings.

In the open Senate district 10, where Democrats have no candidate, Jake Chapman easily wins the GOP primary with 65 percent of the vote to 34 percent for Matthew Mardesen.

Amy Sinclair will be the Republican nominee in the open Senate district 14, where Paul McKinley is retiring. Dick Schrad will be the Democratic candidate.

Jane Jech has a slight lead on Larry McKibben in the Senate district 36 GOP primary. Winner faces first-term Democrat Steve Sodders. UPDATE: Jech crushed McKibben. With all but two precincts in, she's ahead 59 percent to 41 percent. That improves Democratic prospects for holding their Iowa Senate majority. Hard to see Sodders losing to Jech.

~~No results yet in Senate district 22.~~ Incumbent Pat Ward defeats right-wing challenger Jeff Mullen easily in the Polk County precincts of Senate district 22. He's competitive in the Dallas County part of the district, but Bleeding Heartland user albert notes in the comments that Ward is taking the lead even there. UPDATE: With most of the votes counted, Ward leads 58 percent to 42 percent. I hope Mullen's supporters sulk and stay home in November.

With about half the precincts in, Shelley Parbs leads the three-way Democratic primary race in Senate district 38, where the winner faces first-term Republican Tim Kapucian. UPDATE: Parbs has 57 percent of the vote with only one precinct left to report.

Very early returns show Larry Kruse leading the GOP primary and Rich Taylor leading the Democratic primary in the open Senate district 42. UPDATE: It will be Taylor vs Kruse in this Democratic-leaning district.

In the clash of two GOP Senate incumbents, Jim Hahn leads Shawn Hamerlinck with about 20 percent of the precincts counted in Senate district 46. UPDATE: Hahn holding his lead with about half the precincts reported. The Democratic nominee for this district is Chris Brase. LATER UPDATE: Scott County reported and carried the day for Hamerlinck. He wins this primary with nearly 61 percent of the vote to 38 percent for Hahn.

Dan Zumbach will easily with the GOP primary in the open Senate district 48. The Democratic nominee will be Nate Willems.

Rita Hart defeated Dorothy O'Brien by nearly 54 percent to 46 percent in the Democratic primary for open Senate district 49. The GOP nominee is Andrew Naeve, who nearly won this Democratic-leaning area in 2010.

Former IA-01 Congressional candidate Will Johnson, a big Ron Paul supporter, won the GOP primary in Senate district 50 (Dubuque). He won't stand a chance against first-term Democrat Pam Jochum.

On the Iowa House side:

Iowa House Republican Whip Erik Helland lost his primary to Jake Highfill in House district 39. That's a big upset. Former State Representative Walt Tomenga, who represented part of this area before retiring in 2008, had publicly endorsed Highfill and slammed Helland.

LATER UPDATE: Helland was the only Iowa House GOP incumbent to lose to a primary challenger, not counting Sweeney (who lost to a fellow incumbent).

Pat Grassley is on track to defeat Annette Sweeney in Iowa House district 50. UPDATE: Not even close, Grassley 61 percent, Sweeney 39 percent. Will Bruce Rastetter still give huge sums of money to the House Republican Majority Fund?

Incumbent Jeff Smith will survive his primary challenge in House district 1. Ditto for Ron Jorgensen in House district 6, Greg Forristall in House district 22, Joel Fry in House district 27, and Jarad Klein in House district 78.

Henry Rayhons is barely ahead of his primary challenger, Bob Dishman, in House district 8. UPDATE: Rayhons holds on to win that primary. First-term incumbent Tom Shaw trails Maison Bleam in the early returns from House district 10. UPDATE: With almost all of the votes in, Shaw leads 64 percent to 36 percent.

Incumbent Cecil Dolecheck has a narrow lead with about a third of the precincts counted in House district 24. UPDATE: It turned out to be a blowout for Dolecheck, who received nearly 59 percent of the vote against Jane Jensen.

Julian Garrett looks on track to defeat his primary challenger in House district 25. UPDATE: Garrett wins with 59 percent of the vote.

In House district 26, the more conservative Republican Steve McCoy defeated Carlisle Mayor Ruth Randleman by nearly 56 percent to 44 percent in the GOP primary. Scott Ourth is the Democratic nominee in this open seat, where Glen Massie is retiring.

Republican House incumbent Kevin Koester also survived his primary challenge in House district 38.

None of the six Republican candidates won 35 percent of the vote in the open House district 37. Jim Robidoux fell just short with 34.4 percent. Matt DeVries was in second place with 29.7 percent. A district convention will decide the nomination.

Marti Anderson narrowly defeats Cara Kennedy-Ode in the three-way Democratic primary for House district 36. Janet Peterson vacated that district to run for the Iowa Senate. Jeff Ibbotson wins the three-way Republican primary in that district but probably has no chance against Anderson in the general.

Jim Carley wins the GOP nomination in the new House district 30, where Kim Pearson retired. Carley faces Democratic nominee Joe Riding in the general.

Michael Klimesh wins the three-way GOP primary in House district 55. He'll face Democratic incumbent Roger Thomas.

In the open Iowa House district 72, where Republican Lance Horbach is retiring, Nathan Wrage won the Democratic primary against Cristina Blackcloud-Garcia by 53.6 percent to 46.1 percent. I believe Blackcloud-Garcia is the first Native-American woman to run for the Iowa legislature. Wrage will face Republican Dean Fisher in the general.

David Johnson and Dick Schwab are neck and neck in the Democratic primary in House district 73. The winner faces Bobby Kaufmann, son of retiring GOP House Speaker Pro-Tem Jeff Kaufmann. LATE UPDATE: Final results: Schwab nearly 57 percent, Johnson 43 percent. We will see whether Johnson was right when he warned that a candidate from Johnson County (Schwab) would struggle in a district where more constituents live in Cedar County.

In the open House district 76, David Maxwell won the GOP primary by a 2-1 margin over Larry Wilson. He'll face Grinnell City Council member Rachel Bly in the general.

Megan Hess won the GOP primary in the open House district 2, defeating Josh Davenport by nearly 54 percent to 46 percent. She'll be heavily favored to beat Democrat Steve Bomgaars this November. This was a test of strength for various conservative interest groups in a heavily Republican part of northwest Iowa.

Both candidates reside in Spencer. Davenport is a pastor. Hess is a recent law school graduate who has worked in the Iowa and Minnesota legislatures and assisted Congressman Steve King and Senator Chuck Grassley. Iowa Gun Owners and Iowa Liberty PAC support Davenport. He also has the backing of House members Kim Pearson and Tom Shaw. The NRA endorsed Hess. Iowa Right to Life supports both candidates.

In more open-seat results, Greg Heartsill won big (3-1 margin) in the GOP primary to represent House district 28. He'll face Democrat Megan Day Suhr this November.

Linn County Auditor Joel Miller easily defeated two Democratic primary challengers, winning 58 percent of the vote.

But Johnson County Auditor Tom Slockett trails his Democratic primary challenger Travis Weipert. UPDATE: Slockett conceded. It's rare for a 35-year incumbent to lose a primary.

Weekend open thread: Candidate filing deadline edition

desmoinesdem — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 01:26:59 GMT

I'm posting the weekend thread early, because the filing period for primary election candidates in Iowa closed this afternoon. The Secretary of State's Office posted the full list of candidates here (pdf). John Deeth has been covering the filing on a daily basis all month at his blog. Some highlights from races I'm watching are after the jump.

This is an open thread; all topics welcome.

UPDATE: Gotta agree with Senator Chuck Grassley: the History Channel is useless.
Congressional races

I was dead wrong yesterday. Democratic State Senator Joe Seng managed to collect enough signatures to qualify for the ballot in Iowa's second Congressional district. That means three-term incumbent Dave Loebsack will have to deal with a competitive primary. So the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's robo-poll in IA-02 wasn't a waste of money. UPDATE: Kevin Hall of The Iowa Republican blog says Seng's nominating petitions wound up "at a few GOP county conventions" on March 10. Hall also comments, "I doubt Joe Seng can win, but he can beat up liberal Loebsack in the primary and force him to spend important time and treasure. Or Seng could pull off the upset. Either way, Iowans win."

In 2008, many Democrats in the Iowa legislature savaged former State Representative Ed Fallon for running against Leonard Boswell in the IA-03 primary. Look for Seng to get a pass, because Democrats need him to get 26 votes for any bill in the Iowa Senate.

There weren't any other surprises in the Congressional candidate filings, but I didn't expect Steve King to challenge Christie Vilsack to six debates in the fourth district. The last few cycles, King has refused all invitations to debate his challengers.

In IA-01, Bruce Braley has two Republican challengers: I see on Facebook that Rod Blum is still taking shots at Ben Lange for not having an issues page on his website. Lange hasn't directly criticized Blum, preferring to highlight his campaign organization instead.

In IA-02, only two of the three Republicans who declared a few months ago filed for the ballot: Dan Dolan and John Archer. Both have been campaigning frequently around the district. Archer was the first to go up on radio district-wide. He's also taken a leave of absence from his job to run for Congress full-time.

Iowa Senate races

Democrats have candidates in 21 of the 26 Senate districts that will be on the ballot this November. Republicans have candidates in all 26 races, no matter how hopeless some of those districts look. I give them credit for not leaving any Senate Democrat unchallenged.

I am surprised that Council Bluffs Republicans didn't recruit a stronger candidate to jump in against Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal at the last minute. Surely they could have done better than Al Ringgenberg in the new Senate district 8. I had heard that Governor Terry Branstad was helping make calls to recruit someone else for this race, but if that's true, whoever was courted didn't take the bait. Fortunately for the GOP, they have a lot of other paths to 26 Senate seats.

There will be quite a few contested primaries on the Senate side. In the open district 4, Republicans James Black and Dennis Guth will compete to face Democrat Bob Jennings.

In the open district 6, Republicans Matthew Biede, Adam Schweers, and Mark Segebart will compete to face Democrat Mary Bruner.

In the open district 10, there is no Democratic candidate, so the winner of the GOP primary between Jake Chapman and Matthew Mardesen has a lock on the seat.

The open district 14, now held by retiring former Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley, will be quite a free-for-all. Three Republicans (Steve Everly, Stephanie Jones, and Amy Sinclair) and two Democrats (Dick Schrad and Jason Demichelis) are running.

I'm looking forward to watching the primary race between State Senator Pat Ward and Jeff Mullen in my home district, Senate 22. The winner will face Desmund Adams, who has been working hard despite the long odds for a Democrat in this suburban seat.

Democrats did find a candidate against Senate Minority Leader Jerry Behn in the new district 24. Shelly Stotts filed yesterday.

Lots of districts are up for grabs in northwest Iowa. Senate district 26 will feature the clash of two incumbents, Republican Merlin Bartz and Democrat Mary Jo Wilhelm.

As expected, Democrat John Beard and Republican Mike Breitbach will contest the open Senate district 28.

Republican Matt Reisetter is challenging Democrat Jeff Danielson in the new Senate district 30. Danielson squeaked by in 2008 by fewer than two dozen votes.

For ages I didn't hear anything about a Republican challenger to Democrat Brian Schoenjahn in district 32, but Elliott Henderson filed for that seat today.

Randi Shannon is the only Republican challenger to Liz Mathis in district 34. Mathis won last November's special election in the old Senate district 18.

As expected, two Republicans, Larry McKibben and Jane Jech, will compete to face Steve Sodders in the new district 36.

Three Democrats are running in the new district 38: LaForest Sherman, Shelley Parbs, and Nick Volk. Republican Tim Kapucian now holds that seat.

In the open district 42, two Republicans are running, Lee Harder and Larry Kruse. The general-election favorite will be the winner of the Democratic primary between Donna Amandus, Bob Morawitz, and Rich Taylor.

Republican Senators Shawn Hamerlinck and Jim Hahn will face off in the district 46 primary; the winner will run against Democrat Chris Brase.

Two Republicans filed in the open district 48: Brian Cook and Dan Zumbach. Cindy Golding, who lost to Liz Mathis in last November's special Senate election, had considered running here but didn't file. State Representative Nate Willems will be the Democratic nominee.

As expected, Democrats Rita Hart and Dorothy O'Brien are running in the new district 49, where Republicans have a strong candidate in Andrew Naeve.

Iowa House races

There will be competitive Republican primaries in 25 House districts. In 11 of those districts someone is challenging a sitting House Republican. Some of those seats are locks for the GOP in the general, others are long-shots. On balance I think it's healthy for a party to have a lot of competitive primaries, but I can't remember seeing so many challenges to incumbents. The bad news for House Speaker Kraig Paulsen is that lots of incumbents in safe Republican seats will spend campaign cash defending themselves in the primary. That means less money for leadership to direct to incumbents or challengers in swing districts.

The most interesting match-up by far will be the battle of House incumbents Annette Sweeney and Pat Grassley in the new district 50. That's widely considered a proxy war between Bruce Rastetter, a childhood friend of Sweeney's, and Senator Chuck Grassley, Pat's grandfather.

Democrats have only five competitive House primaries lined up; that number could shrink if any of the candidates drop out in the near future.

Republican House incumbents who did not file for re-election: House Speaker Pro Tem Jeff Kaufmann, Kim Pearson, Glen Massie, and Dan Rasmussen. I wondered whether Rasmussen might bow out when I saw he had raised almost nothing in 2011 beyond the PAC donations that come automatically to every GOP state representative. Jim Givant will run in district 64, where Rasmussen lives. Kaufmann's son Bobby is the GOP candidate in the new district 73. There will be competitive primaries to replace Pearson in district 30 and Massie in district 26.

I didn't notice any surprise retirements on the Democratic side.

In the new House district 47, former Democratic State Representative Donovan Olson is seeking a rematch with Republican Chip Baltimore, who beat him by a couple dozen votes in 2010. The other rematch will be in the new district 58, where Democrat Tom Schueller is running against surprise 2010 Republican winner Brian Moore.

I didn't notice any obvious recruiting failures for House Republicans. Democrats didn't manage to line up challengers against some GOP incumbents in what should be swing districts. For now Lee Hein is unchallenged in in the new district 96, and so is Steve Olson in the new district 97.

Earlier today, Democrat Becky Perkovich filed in the new House district 48; I wondered whether Republican Rob Bacon would get a free pass there after Rich Olive bowed out of that race.

UPDATE: One of the GOP incumbents being primaried is House Majority Whip Erik Helland, no stranger to scandal and controversy. His challenger Jake Highfill claims Helland offered him a job to get him out of the race. I'm 90 percent sure the Iowa House Ethics Committee will punt, as usual--possibly on the grounds that they have no jurisdiction here. Highfill can still tell his story during the primary campaign, and his version doesn't make Helland look good.

On Dec. 29, Highfill's complaint alleges, he received a phone call and voice message from Helland asking Highfill to call him back. Highfill returned the call about five minutes later, and the two spoke for 28 minutes, according to phone records he provided the Register.
"Mr. Helland made a series of attempts to persuade me not to challenge him in the Republican Primary," Highfill's complaint alleges. "He talked about the money advantage he has, his seniority in the Iowa House, as well as his performance in the previous 2008 primary he was involved in against Al Lorenzen. Included in his attempts to persuade me not to challenge him were promising me multiple jobs, including, being a clerk in the Iowa House and working for a candidate or the Republican Party in the summer and fall. He repeatedly told me that I don't want to challenge him and that I should abandon my campaign and gain experience by working for him and the Republican Party."
Highfill said he did not respond to Helland's offer immediately but sent Helland a text message several hours later reading, "I thank you for the offer but I am going to respectful (sic) decline. If you want me to call you I could later or tomorrow."
Helland, a two-term incumbent who serves as whip for the House's GOP caucus, immediately replied via text, "I have time now."
In the phone conversation that followed, Highfill told the Register, Helland became "forceful," "angry" and "confrontational."
"Mr. Helland was noticeably unhappy with my decision not to accept his offer of employment in exchange of me not challenging him in the primary," Highfill states.
In the complaint, Highfill interprets the offer as a bribe and an attempt to intimidate: Helland was "effectively attempting to appease me through bribery and threatening overtones of his superior position in Iowa Legislature," he writes.
The complaint does not, however, specify exactly what law or ethics rule Highfill believes Helland violated.
Megan Tooker, executive director of the Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board, said she passed the complaint on to the House because its allegations did not violate the sections of Iowa law concerning campaign finance and lobbying, over which the board has jurisdiction.

Iowa Workforce Development offices as a 2012 campaign issue

desmoinesdem — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 15:00:49 GMT

The state agency Iowa Workforce Development has replaced 36 field offices with hundreds of new "enhanced access" computer terminals this year.

Although the shuttered offices are unlikely ever to reopen, they may live on as talking points in many competitive Iowa House and Senate races next fall.
Iowa Workforce Development officials announced the restructuring plans in February as a way to save money while improving access for unemployed Iowans. Some 500 computer terminals in public libraries, Iowa State University extension offices and other locations will eventually be equipped to allow people to seek help from Iowa Workforce Development staff.

The agency will continue to operate 16 "regional integrated one-stop offices" in Burlington, Carroll, Cedar Rapids, Council Bluffs, Creston, Davenport, Decorah, Des Moines, Dubuque, Fort Dodge, Marshalltown, Mason City, Ottumwa, Sioux City, Spencer and Waterloo. Additionally, Iowa Workforce Development will keep satellite office locations open in Fort Madison, Iowa City and Webster City.

Many state legislators favored keeping all 55 Iowa Workforce Development field offices open. It was one of the highest priorities for Senate Democrats during lengthy negotiations over the state budget. In fact, Teresa Wahlert barely won Senate confirmation as Iowa Workforce Development director because of this controversy. Iowa House Republicans supported funding to keep the field offices open for another year, but Branstad used his line-item veto power to reject that portion of the economic development appropriations bill for fiscal year 2012.

Senate Democrats called for a special legislative session to override Branstad's veto, but House and Senate Republicans rejected that path. During the summer, Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal vowed to try to override the veto during the 2012 legislative session. Republicans are certain to ignore that call.

Several Democratic legislators are co-plaintiffs in a lawsuit challenging Branstad's use of his item veto power with respect to Iowa Workforce Development funding. But as the governor pointed out during a recent press conference, it will be a long time before that case works its way through the court system.

Branstad seems unconcerned about any lingering political controversy over his administration's actions. In his view, the restructuring has been a "significant success":

"Our tracking data indicates that services are equal to or greater than what they were available at this time last year. I see this as a significant success and commend Director (Teresa) Wahlert and Iowa Workforce Development for their good work," Branstad said. [...]
In place of the unemployment offices, the state is installing hundreds of kiosk-like computer stations in places like libraries and homeless shelters where Iowans can access online training, assistance in preparing for interviews and other job application services.
Critics contend that what's essentially a self-help computer program is a far cry from personal, one-on-one assistance previously provided to thousands of unemployed workers.
But advocates say the move will prove to be more beneficial to Iowans, saving $6.5 million a year and also enhancing job searches through computer software. [...]
There are now 373 virtual access points with at least one kiosk-like center in each county. Iowans have access to phone or online interaction with state unemployment officials at the sites, which has led to an extension of the number of hours of service, state officials said today.

Wahlert has touted other aspects of the new system:

"We continue to add new things. This is a very evolving technology. One of the things we added just today...is a fifth option for people and it's called, 'I am a student,'" Wahlert says. "And in this fifth option we have things like 'How to find a job', what the requirements are for GED. We are working on a partnership with ACT to add practice testing."
Those practice tests for the ACT and for GEDs will be available in December.
Workforce Development staff are now available from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Monday through Friday and on Saturdays from 10 a.m. 'til 2 p.m. to answer questions from people who go online and seek help with their job search. Wahlert says in the past, Workforce Development offices weren't open past 4:30 p.m. and not every county in the state had an office. Today, there are 370 on-line access points for the Workforce Development computer program.

If 500 computer terminals across the state serve unemployed people well, the Iowa Workforce Development restructuring may be a non-issue next year. Still, I expect to see some Democratic statehouse candidates pointing to vacant storefronts where field offices used to be. The "enhanced access points" could become a symbol of failed Republican governance if they don't function as advertised in numerous locations.

Here's a list of the 36 cities and towns that lost Iowa Workforce Development field offices this year, along with background on the 2012 Iowa House and Senate races in those areas. Scroll to the end of this post for a shorter list of potentially competitive statehouse campaigns in communities that no longer have an Iowa Workforce Development field office.

Algona (Kossuth County)

For the past decade, Algona has been in the old House district 8, where Republican Tom Shaw won an open-seat race in 2010. Iowa's new map of political boundaries put Algona in the new House district 7 (map), represented by first-term Democrat John Wittneben. He won his open-seat race in 2010 by less than three dozen votes. House district 7 has a small Democratic voter registration advantage, but I expect Republicans to mount a strong challenge for this seat. Algona is also part of the new Senate district 4 (map), which has a comfortable Republican voter registration advantage. No Democratic candidate has declared for that race. Former State Senator Jim Black is likely to be the Republican nominee.

Ames (Story County)

Both Iowa House districts in Ames are fairly strong seats for Democrats Beth Wessel-Kroeschell and Lisa Heddens, who decided to move after the redistricting plan put her home outside the north Ames-based district 46 (map). Wessel-Kroeschell lives in the new House district 45 (map). Democratic State Senator Herman Quirmbach is the incumbent in the new Senate district 23 (map), and he won't be on the ballot again until 2014.

Atlantic (Cass County)

Atlantic will be part of the new House district 21 (map) and Senate district 11 (map). Both districts have huge Republican voter registration advantages, and Democrats are unlikely to mount serious challenges to GOP State Representative Jack Drake or State Senator Hubert Houser, assuming both seek re-election.

Boone (Boone County)

Both the House and the Senate race here have potential to be competitive in 2012. First-term Republican Chip Baltimore represents the current House district 48, where he defeated Democratic incumbent Donovan Olson by only a couple dozen votes in 2010. Boone is part of the new House district 47 (map), which has a tiny Democratic registration advantage but a plurality of no-party voters. Olson has not disclosed whether he plans to seek a rematch with Baltimore. No other Democrat has declared for the seat yet. Boone is in the new Senate district 24 (map), represented by Republican Jerry Behn. His new district has only a small voter GOP registration advantage, with a plurality of no-party voters. No Democrat has stepped up to challenge Behn, whose long incumbency and recent election as Iowa Senate Republican leader make him the clear favorite in my opinion.

Centerville (Appanoose County)

Retiring Democrat Kurt Swaim currently represents this area, but the new map of political boundaries puts Appanoose County in House district 80 (map). No incumbent currently lives in the district. Democrat Joe Judge announced his candidacy in May, shortly after the redistricting plan was approved. It's among the most balanced House districts, with roughly equal numbers of registered Democrats, Republicans and no-party voters. To my knowledge, no Republican has entered the race. On the Senate side, Centerville is in the new district 40 (map). Two-term Democratic incumbent Tom Rielly faces a big uphill climb here, and he hasn't represented Appanoose County before.

Charles City (Floyd County)

Charles City is current represented by Republican State Representative Josh Byrnes, who won an open-seat race in 2010. However, in 2012 it will be in the new Iowa House district 52 (map), where six-term Democratic State Representative Brian Quirk is the incumbent. The district leans Democratic in terms of voter registration. When Democrats controlled the Iowa House from 2007 through 2010, Quirk was known as a member of the conservative "six-pack" that opposed organized labor's legislative priorities. Since Republicans won back the Iowa House majority, Quirk has voted with most GOP lawmakers on legislation serving the interests of big ag multiple times. He also voted for a controversial bill to promote nuclear power in Iowa. The more interesting race here is likely to be on the Senate side, because the new Senate district 26 (map) pits two incumbents against each other: Democrat Mary Jo Wilhelm and Republican Merlin Bartz. Both parties are certain to target this race, which Bleeding Heartland previewed here. The district has a Democratic voter registration advantage of about 1,300, and Bartz has drawn some unflattering local press over a fence dispute with neighbors. On the other hand, Bartz has had a much longer career in the Iowa legislature than Wilhelm.

Cherokee (Cherokee County)

Both Iowa House district 3 (map) and Iowa Senate district 2 (map) lean heavily Republican. It will take a lot more than Iowa Workforce Development closing an office to make this part of northwest Iowa politically competitive. State Senator Randy Feenstra should be safe for 2012. Two current Iowa House Republicans, Royd Chambers and Dan Huseman, live in this district; it's not clear whether they will face off in a GOP primary or whether one will retire.

Clarinda (Page County)

Similar story here: the new Iowa House district 24 (map) and Senate district 12 (map) cover parts of southwest Iowa that are safe for Republicans. State Senator Joni Ernst should have no trouble winning re-election. On the House side, the eventual nominee (Cecil Dolecheck or Rich Anderson) should have no problem winning the general election, with or without an Iowa Workforce Development office.

Clinton (Clinton County)

First-term Iowa House Democrat Mary Wolfe represents the Clinton area, which is in the new House district 98 (map). It's a Democratic-leaning district already. Voter registration numbers favor Democrats in Senate district 49 as well (map), but Republicans have a strong announced candidate in Andrew Naeve. No Democrat has declared for that open Senate race. It will be on the ballot despite its odd number, because State Senator Tod Bowman opted to stay in the new Senate district 29 instead.

Denison (Crawford County)

Restructuring of state services for the unemployed is sure to become an issue here, because the Democratic candidate in the new Iowa House district 18 (map) is Kasey Friedrichsen, a former Iowa Workforce Development employee in the Denison office. Her opponent will be two-term Republican State Representative Jason Schultz. He's not my cup of tea, but he has a fairly substantial GOP voter registration edge on his side. Senate district 9 (map) also leans heavily Republican. It may not be on the ballot in 2012, unless current GOP incumbent Senators Nancy Boettger and Jim Seymour decide to face off in a primary. JANUARY 2012 UPDATE: Seymour is retiring, so there will be no election this year in Senate district 9.

Emmetsburg (Palo Alto County)

To my knowledge, there is no Democratic candidate yet in the new Iowa House district 2 (map). The Republican nomination is up for grabs, as no current incumbent lives in this district. There won't be a 2012 campaign in the new Senate district 1 (map), which includes Palo Alto County. Democrat Jack Kibbie's retirement means Republican Senator David Johnson will hold over until 2014.

Estherville (Emmet County)

Like Algona, which I covered above, Estherville is located in the new House district 7, represented by Democrat John Wittneben, and the new Senate district 4, which has no incumbent. Estherville is Wittneben's home base, and he'll need to run up the score here to win in this swing district. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Iowa Workforce Development office closure become a campaign issue for him.

Fairfield (Jefferson County)

Fairfield is located in the new House district 82 (map). Democrat Curt Hanson is the incumbent. Republicans will contest the new district 82 in 2012, because they have a slight voter registration advantage here. However, Hanson has strong local support, having won a 2009 special election and re-election in 2010 in the old House district 90. First-term Republican State Senator Mark Chelgren holds over until 2014 in the new Senate district 41 (map), which includes the Fairfield area. That's lucky for him, because Democrats should win this district back next time it's on the ballot. Chelgren defeated Democratic incumbent Keith Kreiman by only a dozen votes in 2010.

Glenwood (Mills County)

Glenwood is located in the new House district 23 (map), which has no incumbent but should be safe for Republicans, considering their commanding voter registration advantage in the area. The same goes for the new Senate district 12 (map), where Republican Joni Ernst, a 2011 special election winner, should easily be elected to a full term in 2012.

Harlan (Shelby County)

Like Denison, which I discussed above, Harlan is located in the new House district 18 (map). This campaign will pit Republican State Representative Jason Schultz, case law hater and Ron Paul endorser, against Democrat Kasey Friedrichsen, a former Iowa Workforce Development employee in the Denison office. Senate district 9 (map) contains two GOP incumbents, Nancy Boettger and Jim Seymour. If one of them retires, the other holds over until 2014. JANUARY 2012 UPDATE: Seymour announced his retirement; there will be no Senate district 9 election in 2012.

Humboldt (Humboldt County)

A contested Republican primary is likely in the new House district 10 (map). Neither first-term State Representative Tom Shaw nor five-term incumbent Dave Tjepkes lives in Humboldt County. Social issues may dominate the primary campaign. Shaw is more conservative, having been among a handful of House Republicans to back impeaching Iowa Supreme Court justices who concurred in the Varnum v Brien decision. Shaw also has supported bringing "personhood" legislation to the House floor and voted against a late-term abortion ban because it didn't go far enough to restrict abortions in his view. To my knowledge, no Democrat has announced plans to run in the new House district 10, which has a large GOP voter registration advantage. Democratic State Senator Daryl Beall holds over until 2014 in the new Senate district 5 (map), which includes Humboldt County. By then I doubt the Iowa Workforce Development restructuring will be a salient issue.

Iowa Falls (Hardin County)

About half of Hardin County, including Iowa Falls, is in the new House district 50 (map). This will be the site of the premier GOP primary battle of 2012, pitting House Agriculture Committee Chair Annette Sweeney against Economic Growth Committee Chair Pat Grassley, grandson of U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley. My guess is there won't be a Democratic candidate in House district 50, which leans heavily Republican. There also won't be a 2012 election in Iowa Senate district 25 (map), where Iowa Falls is located. First-term Republican Bill Dix didn't get his wish to be Senate minority leader, but he does get to hold over until 2014 thanks to Rob Bacon's decision to run for the Iowa House instead.

Keokuk (Lee County)

Lee County has one of the highest unemployment rates in the state and used to contain two Iowa Workforce Development field offices. The agency decided to keep the other Lee County office open in Fort Madison. Both Keokuk and Fort Madison are located in the new Iowa House district 83 (map). Democratic State Representative Jerry Kearns should have no problem winning re-election in this heavily Democratic area, judging from his comfortable 2010 victory. Senate district 42 (map) lacks an incumbent with the retirement of Democrat Gene Fraise. To my knowledge, no Democrat has announced plans to run for this seat. Republicans have a candidate, Lee County Supervisor Larry Kruse, but the district has what should be a solid Democratic voter registration advantage.

Manchester (Delaware County)

So far Republican State Representative Lee Hein is the only announced candidate in the new House district 96, which includes all of Delaware County (map). The district doesn't have an overwhelming GOP voter registration advantage, but it's not clear whether Democrats can recruit a strong candidate here. The campaign in Senate district 48 (map) should be one of the most competitive statehouse races in 2012. State Representative Nate Willems will be the Democratic nominee and will probably face one of three Republicans running or considering this race: Dan Zumbach, Brian Cook, and Cindy Golding.

Maquoketa (Jackson County)

Democrat Tom Schueller, a Maquoketa native, is trying to return to the Iowa House in the new district 58 (map). He shouldn't need an Iowa Workforce Development office controversy to seal the deal against Republican Brian Moore, who may be the most endangered Iowa House incumbent in 2012. There won't be an Iowa Senate election in the new district 29 (map) next year. Democrat Tod Bowman holds over until 2014, thanks to Senator Tom Hancock's decision to retire.

Mount Pleasant (Henry County)

Republican Dave Heaton has represented the Mount Pleasant area in the Iowa House since the 1994 election. The new map puts Henry County in Iowa House district 84 (map). To my knowledge, no Democrat has announced plans to challenge Heaton, who will be heavily favored even if there is lingering resentment over the demise of the Iowa Workforce Development office. Henry County is part of the new Senate district 42 (map), which I discussed above in the context of Keokuk.

Muscatine (Muscatine County)

Democrats do not yet have a candidate in the new House district 91, which covers the Muscatine area (map). Republican State Representative Mark Lofgren defeated three-term Democratic incumbent Nathan Reichert in the old House district 80 in 2010. FEBRUARY 2012 UPDATE: John Dabeet will be the Democratic candidate in House district 91. The city of Muscatine and nearby areas of Muscatine county also like in the new Senate district 46 (map). That should become one of the most competitive state Senate races of 2012. Democrat Chris Brase will face one of two Republican incumbents: Shawn Hamerlinck or Jim Hahn.

New Hampton (Chickasaw County)

Like the Charles City area, discussed above, New Hampton and the rest of Chickasaw County are in the new House district 52 (map), represented by six-term Democrat Brian Quirk. To my knowledge, no Republican has announced plans to challenge Quirk, who benefits from a Democratic voter registration advantage. Chickasaw County lies in the new Senate district 26 (map), which I discussed above in the context of Charles City. Democratic State Senator Mary Jo Wilhelm has a decent shot here against Republican Senator Merlin Bartz.

Newton (Jasper County)

The optics of closing the Iowa Workforce Development branch in Newton are lousy: unemployment is relatively high in the city that hasn't fully recovered from the Maytag plant closing. On the other hand, Newton isn't far from Marshalltown or Des Moines, which both will retain staffed Iowa Workforce Development offices. Newton lies in the new House district 29 (map), represented by Democrat Dan Kelley. It's a strong Democratic district where no Republican has entered the race, as far as I know. There will be no election next year in the new Senate district 15 (map), which includes Newton and most of Jasper County. Democrat Dennis Black holds over until 2014.

Oelwein (Fayette County)

The Oelwein area lies in the new House district 64 (map), represented by Republican Dan Rasmussen. He narrowly defeated Democratic State Representative Gene Ficken in 2010 in the old House district 23, and the new district 64 leans Democratic in terms of voter registration. I am not aware of any Democrat actively campaigning here yet, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Iowa Workforce Development controversy pop up during the 2012 campaign. The part of Fayette county that includes Oelwein is in the new Senate district 32 (map). It's almost evenly divided in terms of voter registration, and Democratic incumbent Brian Schoenjahn could face a tough battle in 2012. Schoenjahn is from Arlington, a smaller town in Fayette County. He has no GOP challenger yet, to my knowledge.

Orange City (Sioux County)

Iowa Senate district 2 (map) and Iowa House district 4 (map) are located in one of the most Republican-voting counties in the United States. No amount of fallout over Iowa Workforce Development Offices will threaten State Representative Dwayne Alons or State Senator Randy Feenstra.

Osceola (Clarke County)

Osceola is the largest town in the new House district 27 (map). First-term Republican State Representative Joel Fry lives in Osceola, and his new district has only a slight GOP voter registration advantage. I haven't heard of any Democrat running for this seat yet. Clarke County is part of the new Senate district 14 (map). Neither party has an announced candidate here, as far as I know. Former Republican Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley decided against running for re-election in 2012.

Oskaloosa (Mahaska County)

Oskaloosa lies in the new House district 79 (map). Republican State Representative Guy Vander Linden lives in Oskaloosa. I doubt any resentment over an Iowa Workforce Development office will create a problem for him, given the large GOP voter registration advantage in this district. Meanwhile, two-term Democrat Tom Rielly is arguably the most endangered Iowa Senate incumbent in 2012, despite having previously served as mayor of Oskaloosa. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by nearly 5,000 voters in the new Senate district 40 (map), which includes Oskaloosa.

Pella (Marion County)

Pella has a reputation as one of Iowa's most conservative towns, and it lies in the new House district 79 (map) along with Oskaloosa. Should be smooth sailing here for GOP State Representative Vander Linden and a rough ride for Democrat Rielly in he new Senate district 40 (map)

Perry (Dallas County)

The northwest portion of Dallas County, including Perry, lies in the new House district 20 (map). Republican State Representative Clel Baudler, a national board member of the National Rifle Association, is the incumbent here. He voted against the redistricting plan in the Iowa House but is in a fairly Republican district. I am not aware of any announced Democratic challenger to Baudler. Perry is in the new Senate district 10 (map). No incumbent lives here, but the open-seat race won't be attractive for Democrats given the voter registration numbers.

Pocahontas (Pocahontas County)

Like Humboldt, which I discussed above, Pocahontas is in the new House district 10 (map). Republican incumbents Tom Shaw and Dave Tjepkes appear likely to face off in a primary, and there is no announced Democratic candidate to my knowledge. Democratic State Senator Daryl Beall holds over until 2014 in the new Senate district 5 (map).

Red Oak (Montgomery County)

The northern two-thirds of Montgomery County, including Red Oak, are in the new House district 23 (map). Although the seat is open, it won't be an inviting target for House Democrats given the enormous GOP voter registration advantage. The Republican primary will in effect determine the winner of House district 23 in 2012. All of Montgomery County is the new Senate district 12 (map), where Red Oak resident Joni Ernst won't have any trouble being re-elected in 2012.

Shenandoah (Page County)

Like Clarinda, which I discussed above, Shenandoah is in the overwhelmingly Republican House district 24 (map) and Senate district 12 (map).

Storm Lake (Buena Vista County)

Buena Vista County is part of the new House district 11 (map). Incumbent Republican Gary Worthan lives in Storm Lake and will be able to run for re-election in a district with a strong GOP voter registration advantage. Worthan defeated Democrat Danuta Hutchins by nearly a 3:1 margin in 2010, and he shouldn't have much trouble winning a fourth term in 2012. The new Senate district 6 (map) is open, because current Senate Republican whip Steve Kettering has decided to retire in 2012. The winner of the GOP primary will be heavily favored in the general election, and it's possible that Democrats won't even field a candidate here.

Washington (Washington County)

Most of Washington County, including county seat Washington, is part of the new House district 78 (map). The new map paired two Republican incumbents: first-termer Jarad Klein and long-timer Betty DeBoef. She decided to retire, so Klein doesn't have to deal with a competitive primary. Democrats don't have a candidate yet in House district 78, which has a Republican voter registration advantage. There will not be a 2012 election in the new Senate district 39 (map), which covers the Washington area. Republican Sandy Greiner holds over until 2014, by which time the Iowa Workforce Development restructuring will be a long time past.

Waverly (Bremer County)

Waverly is the largest town the new House district 63 (map). Republican Pat Grassley currently represents Bremer County in the Iowa House, but no incumbent lives in the new district. Longtime Waverly resident Bill Heckroth, a former Democratic state senator, is running for this House seat and has at least one Republican opponent, Sandy Salmon. It should be a hard-fought race; Republicans have a voter registration edge, but the Democrat has a stronger base in the Waverly area. Bremer County is part of the new Senate district 32 (map), which I discussed above in the context of Oelwein. Democrat Brian Schoenjahn is the incumbent.

To sum up, the following potentially competitive Iowa House and Senate districts contain towns where Iowa Workforce Development offices have closed in 2011.

Democratic-held seats

House district 7 (Algona)

House district 52 (Charles City, New Hampton)

House district 80 (Centerville) *no incumbent

House district 82 (Fairfield)

Senate district 26 (Charles City, New Hampton) *Democratic vs Republican incumbent

Senate district 32 (Waverly, Oelwein)

Senate district 49 (Clinton) *no incumbent

Republican-held seats

House district 27 (Osceola)

House district 47 (Boone)

House district 63 (Waverly) *no incumbent

House district 64 (Oelwein)

House district 78 (Washington)

House district 91 (Muscatine)

House district 96 (Manchester)

Senate district 14 *no incumbent

Senate district 26 (Charles City, New Hampton) *Democratic vs Republican incumbent

Senate district 46 (Muscatine)

Senate district 48 (Manchester) *no incumbent

In all of the above districts, I would not be surprised to see Democratic incumbents or challengers criticize the Iowa Workforce Development restructuring, especially if Iowa's unemployment rate doesn't drop significantly during the next year. It's too early to say whether that would be a successful political strategy. It's possible that voters will share Governor Branstad's preference for hundreds of computer terminals instead of a few dozen field offices with part-time hours.

Any comments about the 2012 legislative races are welcome in this thread.

Cindy Golding still considering Iowa Senate district 48 bid

desmoinesdem — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 00:00:46 GMT

Less than a week after losing the special election in Iowa Senate district 18, Republican Cindy Golding confirmed that she may run for the Iowa Senate next year in the new district 48.
James Q. Lynch reported,

Even as she gets back on track at the farm, investments, property management and non-profit consulting businesses she and her husband, Joe, operate, Golding is being encouraged to get back on the campaign trail.
"I'm getting lots of calls from people asking me to run" in Iowa Senate 48, Golding said. [...]
"So we're regrouping as a family, deciding whether there is enough support to move ahead," she said. "It's not what I want as much as what the people in the district want. You can't do it by yourself."

Senate district 48 covers all of Delaware County, most of Linn County outside Cedar Rapids and its suburbs, part of Jones County (including the towns of Anamosa and Monticello), and a small area in Buchanan County.

Voter registration numbers suggest that this swing district will be competitive in 2012. As of April 2011, Senate district 48 contained 11,553 Democrats, 11,552 Republicans and 15,559 no-party voters.

I don't see Golding as a strong candidate in the GOP primary here, given her loss by a 56-44 margin in Senate district 18. Granted, the Democratic candidate in Senate district 48 (State Representative Nate Willems) doesn't have the star power that helped Liz Mathis in the Cedar Rapids suburbs. But Golding seems unwilling to recognize that her campaign was outworked and out-strategized by Democrats and their allies. The absentee ballots broke overwhelmingly for Mathis in the special election.

Golding appears to view herself as a victim of poor messaging by conservatives who tried to help her:

Golding was annoyed with outside groups "inserted themselves in ways I had no control over ... because of the dynamics of this being the one (seat) that would balance the Senate." [...]
The National Organization for Marriage, The Family Leader and Family Research Council Action campaigned for Golding.
She was uncomfortable about their role.
"There are lots of ways to present your message and some of the most aggressive approaches turn people off," Golding said. Those groups, she added, "turned off Republicans as much as energized Republicans.
"And that's unfortunate, but we could not tell them stop," she said.

That doesn't sound like a winning message with primary voters next spring. Blaming other people for your campaign's failures doesn't come across as gracious.

Meanwhile, Republican griping about Golding began quickly after the special election. The Iowa Republican publisher Craig Robinson portrayed her as an "ungrateful and difficult candidate" in his post-mortem on the Senate district 18 campaign. In Robinson's account, Golding was a complainer who didn't trust the state party and refused to spend her time making phone calls and knocking on doors. He is probably shifting too much blame to Golding in order to downplay the GOP's failure to mobilize voters in a swing suburban district. Still, his megaphone is big enough to make that unflattering image stick with the party establishment.

Dan Zumbach and Brian Cook, both of Delaware County, have announced plans to seek the Republican nomination in Senate district 48. Zumbach is a farmer and former school board member in the West Delaware County Community Schools. Cook sells insurance out of his home in Manchester.

If Cook and Zumbach stay in the race and split the Delaware County vote, Golding may yet have a chance in the GOP primary, but I don't see it happening. She would have been a conservative hero had she won last week's special election. Now every Iowa House-approved bill that Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal blocks will be a reminder of how Golding blew the opportunity Governor Terry Branstad handed Republicans.

Whoever wins the GOP primary, Senate district 48 will be a battleground during the general election campaign. One promising sign for Republicans is that they already have declared candidates in both of the Iowa House districts that make up the new Senate district. High school teacher Quentin Stanerson is seeking the Republican nomination in the new House district 95, which covers a large area in Linn County and part of Buchanan County:

Democrats have a slight voter registration advantage in the new House district 95, but you can't win a seat without a candidate. So far no one has stepped up to the plate to replace Willems, who's running for the Iowa Senate instead of for re-election in this seat.

First-term Republican State Representative Lee Hein will run in the new House district 96, including all of Delaware County and part of Jones County.

Hein defeated Democratic incumbent Ray Zirkelbach in the old House district 31 in 2010. Redistricting had paired him with fellow Republican Brian Moore in the new House district 58. Hein opted to move into the empty district next door. Not only will he avoid a Republican primary in all likelihood, he will enjoy a slight Republican voter registration advantage in House district 96. In contrast, House district 58 tilts strongly to the Democrats.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread.

Competitive GOP primary coming in Iowa Senate district 48

desmoinesdem — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 11:24:45 GMT

Two men from Delaware County, Dan Zumbach and Brian Cook, have declared their intention to seek the Republican nomination in the new Iowa Senate district 48. Their plans indicate that a competitive GOP primary will determine Democrat Nate Willems' opponent whether or not Cindy Golding of Linn County follows through on her plans to run in Senate district 48 next year as well. Golding is the GOP nominee for the November 8 special election in Iowa Senate district 18.

A district map and background on Zumbach and Cook are after the jump.
Senate district 48 covers all of Delaware County, most of Linn County outside Cedar Rapids and its suburbs, part of Jones County (including the towns of Anamosa and Monticello), and a small area in Buchanan County.

Independents are the largest voter group in Senate district 48, and neither major party has a registration advantage. The district contained 11,553 Democrats, 11,552 Republicans and 15,559 no-party voters as of April 2011.

No current state senator lives in the new district 48. Two-term Democratic State Representative Nate Willems announced his candidacy almost immediately after Iowa's redistricting plan was finalized. Willems lives in Lisbon, one of the Linn County communities in the new district.

Dan Zumbach told the Delaware County Republican Central Committee in July that he planned to run in Senate district 48. He filed a statement of organization with the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board in August. This week he launched his campaign website and sent out a press release outlining his background and philosophy:

Zumbach said today, "I have been out meeting with voters and listening to their concerns. They are wanting to see the size of the state budget be reduced, remove burdensome business regulations, and work to improve and enhance our education system. I will take these ideas and concerns to Des Moines if the voters decide to elect me."
Zumbach and his family farm in the Ryan area. Dan served on the West Delaware School Board, the Delaware County Fair Board, and several terms on the church council. Dan is currently a 4-H leader and also an official for the Iowa High School Athletic Association. Dan and his wife Michelle have four children and have been married for 27 years. They are members of Peace Lutheran Church in Ryan.
"I live and work in this district every day and have all my life. I passionately care for the concerns and the people in my district."
"I am a fiscal conservative and understand the importance of working within our means. We must allow more creativity in the process so we can spend smarter and more efficiently. Iowans are intelligent and creative people. We need to get back to work together again to provide real solutions which every Iowan will feel in each of their lives," Zumbach continued.

Brian Cook announced his candidacy in Senate district 48 nearly a month ago at the Delaware County GOP fall dinner. Some weekly newspapers in the district picked up on his announcement, but unfortunately none of those papers post their archives online. The Monticello Express on October 12 covered Cook's remarks to the Delaware County Republicans and described his occupation as selling insurance from his home-based business in Manchester. I don't have a detailed bio for Cook, but he reportedly has worked as a newspaper editor in the past as well.

Cook's commitment to the race may not be as solid as Zumbach's. At this writing, he has not filed a statement of campaign organization with the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board. I couldn't find a campaign website either, and my attempts to reach the candidate by phone were unsuccessful. Cook announced plans to run against Representative Bruce Braley in Iowa's first Congressional district in February 2010. However, the following month he didn't file papers to qualify for the GOP primary ballot in IA-01 (pdf).

As I mentioned above, Cindy Golding is running for Senate district 18 now but told local Republicans that in 2012 she plans to run in Senate district 48. Her home lies in the district 48 part of Linn County as opposed to district 34, where Iowa's redistricting plan put most of the current Senate district 18.

John Deeth asserted that the timing of Zumbach's press release shortly before the special election "suggests both a lack of solid party support for Golding and a lowering of victory expectations." I think the timing makes more sense if Zumbach and Cook expect Golding to win the special election. Helping to deadlock the state Senate would make her a hero to Republicans across Iowa. I would think Zumbach and Cook want to undercut any sense of inevitability should Golding be successful in Linn County.

If Golding loses to Democrat Liz Mathis on November 8, her chances of becoming the 2012 nominee in Senate district 48 diminish significantly. But if she spends the early months of 2012 representing district 18 in the legislature, I believe she would be a strong primary candidate in district 48--particularly if she's the only woman in the race, and two men split the Delaware County primary vote. Senate district 48 lacks a dominant population center. According to the Iowa Secretary of State's office (pdf), Delaware County had 3,846 active registered GOP voters as of October 2011.

Any comments about the Senate district 48 campaign are welcome in this thread.

IA-01: Rod Blum joins Republican field against Braley

desmoinesdem — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 12:25:15 GMT

Dubuque businessman Rod Blum will formally announce today that he is seeking the Republican nomination in the first Congressional district. Blum considered running against Democrat Bruce Braley during the last election cycle, and I suspect he would have had a much better chance of winning the primary and general elections in 2010.
Blum is chairman and CEO of the Digital Canal company, which sells software primarily to contractors, homebuilders, remodelers, and structural engineers. He was raised and educated in Dubuque and has worked for different companies in the area for his entire career. Blum chaired the Dubuque County Republican Party in the mid-1990s and has written occasional opinion columns for the Dubuque Telegraph Herald since 2002.

I sought comment on whether the Telegraph Herald would continue to publish regular commentaries by Blum now that he is a candidate for Congress. Executive Editor Brian Cooper responded that "we won't run his portion of the monthly Double Take feature during his campaign." Blum's final column as the conservative "Double Take" voice will run on Sunday, November 6.

In a video posted on the Telegraph Herald's website on October 21, Blum said he was running for Congress because he believes "we have lost our way as a country" and forgotten principles like "hard work, personal responsibility, accountability, fiscal sanity, things like that." He claimed that polls show 80 percent of Americans do not believe their children will live better than they do. Blum also used a standard conservative talking point about how most Iowans don't spend more from their family budget than they bring in, a message that "for some reason is falling on deaf ears" in Washington. Blum has used the same analogy in his opinion columns.

The truth is that many individuals and families take on substantial long-term debt in the form of a mortgage, car loan, or student loan. Blum also ignores the fact that the federal government's budget plays a different role in the economy than a family's budget. And if you believe as Blum does that government should be run like a business, you need to acknowledge Dean Baker's point that businesses borrow money all the time, and "a corporate board would think a CEO was out of his mind if he came to them and announced that while the company lost money, it had paid off its debt."

But those are arguments for another day. For now I want to focus on Blum's prospects as a candidate. They aren't as bright as they would have been if he had taken the plunge in 2010.

Repeating verbatim his take on Blum from two years ago, Craig Robinson argues today at The Iowa Republican that Blum's conservative columns for the Dubuque newspaper

will be helpful for a couple of reasons. First, having a regular column in the local newspaper helps build credibility and name ID. Secondly, writing a political column means that he has well thought out positions on many of the issues facing our country today, something many first time candidates lack.

Those advantages are less significant than they may appear. First of all, IA-01 now spans 20 counties rather than 12 counties under Iowa's old Congressional map. I don't know how many Republicans in northeast Iowa read the Dubuque Telegraph Herald, but the daily's circulation doesn't reach a majority of district residents or even as large a proportion of IA-01 voters as it did two years ago.

Blum's name recognition in the Dubuque area would have been much more helpful for the 2010 primary campaign. Few Iowans had heard of Ben Lange or the three other candidates who sought the GOP nomination that year. But after Lange nearly defeated Braley in 2010, some Republicans are recruiting him to run again. Even though the new IA-01 contains eleven counties that Lange didn't campaign in two years ago, I would wager that Lange's race against Braley gave him higher name recognition among Republicans district-wide than Blum has from his Dubuque newspaper column.

The other declared Republican candidate in IA-01 is Steve Rathje. He is a business owner in Linn County, the largest by population in the new IA-01. Rathje has run for Congress twice before, so like Lange, he has plenty of experience discussing national policies in media interviews and at public forums. While writing a newspaper column is bound to sharpen a person's communication skills, I think Blum will struggle to convince Republicans that he has a better grasp of the issues than his competitors.

Blum's business connections might have given him a fundraising advantage in the 2010 GOP primary, but now Lange is well-known to Iowa Republican donors. Rathje's campaign had just under $80,000 cash on hand as of September 30. That dwarfs what Lange was able to raise before the June 2010 primary. Two of Lange's primary rivals didn't raise enough money to file Federal Election Commission disclosure reports, and the third, Jim Budde, raised less than $5,000 total.

That's not to say that Blum can't raise the funds to run a strong district-wide primary campaign. But if he does, he won't be the only Republican able to advertise or pay for direct mail.

Blum, Lange and Rathje appear to share many conservative views, so I don't expect a lot of issue contrasts in the primary. I am curious to see whether one opinion column will come back to haunt Blum, though. He recently argued in favor of plans to close many small U.S. post offices:

Postmaster General Patrick Donahoe wants to close unprofitable post offices and move some of their operations into convenience stores and supermarkets; he's targeting 3,500 of the more than 31,000 post offices. Donahoe has said some communities that lose retail locations might get what USPS is calling a Village Post Office -- smaller automated stations or a local vendor that sells stamps and flat-rate boxes.
Local small business owners have expressed interest in performing some postal services in towns that lose their post office. Donahoe proposes eliminating Saturday delivery and reducing headcount by 20 percent over five years through attrition, since the union contract prohibits layoffs. Donahoe is taking prudent actions that occur every day in the private sector when a business is in trouble.
Past reform efforts have been stymied by political pressure to preserve the status quo. U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley has said he will fight the "bad decision" to close any postal facilities in his district. Business as usual is what got us into this mess. Kicking the can down the street is not a solution. The world has changed and the USPS must change with it.
The U.S. Postal Service can survive IF it is allowed to operate like a private-sector business.

I give Blum credit for showing more ideological consistency on this issue than, say, Governor Terry Branstad or Representative Steve King. But regardless of party identification, most people don't like to see post offices closing in their area.

Whoever wins the GOP nomination will probably have a more difficult road in IA-01 during a presidential election year. Voter turnout in Iowa skewed toward the GOP in 2010 (pdf), but more Democrats can be expected to vote in 2012. The new first district contained 169,769 registered Democrats, 135,836 registered Republicans and 190,798 no-party voters as of July 2011. Like Braley's current district, the new IA-01 has a partisan voting index of D+5, meaning that in the last two presidential elections, residents of the district voted about 5 points more Democratic than the country as a whole.

Blum told the Telegraph Herald that any Republican candidate needs to perform well among independents in order to win this district. That's especially true in a presidential year, when many more independents participate. (Just 36.5 percent of registered no-party Iowa voters cast ballots in 2010.) Lange carried first district independents in 2010, so it's not hard to imagine the GOP nominee doing the same next year. But Braley still has to be considered the favorite unless the Iowa Democratic Party's field operation is a total failure.

As Bleeding Heartland discussed here, quite a few Iowa Senate districts that are likely to be competitive in 2012 are located in the new IA-01. Since Democratic control of the Iowa Senate is the main check on Governor Terry Branstad's agenda, Democrats will invest heavily in GOTV across northeast Iowa next fall. Competitive districts that are entirely or partly within the first Congressional district include Senate districts 26, 28, 30, 34, 36 and 48 (view the new Iowa Senate map here).

Share any thoughts about the first Congressional district race in this thread.

UPDATE: James Q. Lynch reported from Blum's press conference today:

The top three issues in the Iowa's 1st District congressional race next year will be "jobs, jobs and jobs," according to Dubuque businessman Rod Blum. [...]
"We're at ground zero," he said Oct. 24 after formally announcing in Dubuque that he will seek the Republican nomination to face three-term Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley of Waterloo. His company's employment has fallen from 45 to less than one-third of that as a result of the housing slump. [...]
If he gets the nomination, Blum said, he will be "running against Bruce Braley and Barack Obama and their policies."
Since President Obama took office, "he and Bruce Braley have racked up $4 trillion in deficits," Blum said in his announcement at a Dubuque hotel. The national debt has grown to $15 trillion - the same as the Gross Domestic Product.
"If we don't start living within our means, Greece's future will be our future," Blum warned.
"When I begged my parents for something, most of the time the answer was 'We can't afford it,'" he said. "I didn't like to hear that answer but my parents knew they couldn't spend more than they made. If my parents, with their 10th grade educations could figure that out, why can't Washington politicians?" [...]
"The older I get the less attention I pay to what people say and more attention to what they actually do," he said. "Quite frankly, people are sick and tired of hearing one thing from politicians on the campaign trail and seeing a different thing once they're in office. And Republicans are just as guilty as Democrats of forgetting whose money they're spending and who they're supposed to be representing."

IA-01: Ben Lange exploring rematch against Braley (updated)

desmoinesdem — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 12:09:00 GMT

Republican Ben Lange will formally announce today that he is exploring a second campaign against three-term incumbent Bruce Braley in Iowa's first Congressional district.
Few people in northeast Iowa had heard of Lange, an attorney and former Congressional staffer, when he announced his 2010 campaign. At the time, IA-01 didn't appear likely to be competitive. Braley outperformed Barack Obama in his district in 2008, winning with more than 64 percent of the vote. Another candidate thought about but decided against challenging Braley in 2010.

I thought Lange was the luckiest challenger in the country when the 501(c)4 group American Future Fund decided to commit big money to taking Braley down. The group's leader Nick Ryan is from northeast Iowa and had run campaigns for Braley's predecessor, Representative Jim Nussle. Between August 2010 and election day, the American Future Fund spent approximately $1.4 million bashing Braley with direct mail, robocalls, television and radio commercials. The outside money left Lange free to run positive advertising with a generic, upbeat message. Lange fell just short.

A map of Iowa's new Congressional districts is at the bottom of his post. The new IA-01 has roughly the same Democratic lean as Braley's current district. Both have a partisan voting index of D+5, meaning that in the last two presidential elections the district voted about 5 points more Democratic than the country as a whole.

There are two big differences. The new district is much larger, containing 20 rather than 12 counties. In addition, the most-populous county from Braley's old district (Scott, including the Quad Cities area) is now in IA-02. Linn County (Cedar Rapids area) is now the largest county in IA-01. That's a great trade for the incumbent; Lange beat Braley in Scott in 2010, whereas Representative Dave Loebsack easily beat Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Linn. Heck, Linn gave the edge to Governor Chet Culver even as Terry Branstad carried the state by 10 points.

Speaking to James Q. Lynch yesterday, Lange said

the encouragement from Linn County Republicans has "probably been most instrumental" in taking this step.
Redistricting split off Linn County from the current 2nd District. As a result, Lange said, Linn County Republicans feel "unshackled from Johnson County," a Democratic stronghold.
"They're telling me 'folks believed in you last time when you came from nowhere, no money, no organization, no name ID and you lost by only 2 points. Just imagine what you could do this time around,'" he said.

That's a slap in the face to Linn County business owner Steve Rathje, who's already announced a challenge to Braley. Rathje lost the 2008 GOP primary for U.S. Senate and the 2010 GOP primary for IA-02. Lange will be favored to win next year's IA-01 primary if he goes forward with a 2012 campaign. On the other hand, recruiters for the National Republican Congressional Committee have reportedly spoken with former Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate as well. Pate has a strong base of support in Linn County, and older Republican voters across the district may remember him too. He served one term as secretary of state before running for governor in 1998, losing the GOP nomination.

Assuming Lange is the GOP nominee in IA-01, he will face an uphill battle against Braley. As of July 2011, the new first district contained 169,769 registered Democrats, 135,836 registered Republicans and 190,798 no-party voters. Although Braley has to compete in some unfamiliar counties, his new territory includes Poweshiek, where he grew up. Unless something very unusual happens, Democratic turnout across the district should be higher in a presidential election year than it was in 2010, when voters almost sent Braley packing.

Both parties will be doing heavy GOTV work for down-ticket candidates in IA-01 next year. Click here to view the new Iowa Senate map. IA-01 contains all or part of many districts that are likely to be competitive, such as Senate districts 26, 28, 30, 34, 36 and 48. There are bound to be many close Iowa House races in these areas too, but the battle for control of the Iowa Senate will be the top priority for Democrats and Republicans in 2012.

I take issue with this passage in Lynch's report:

A first-time candidate in 2010, Lange gained national attention when he nearly knocked off Braley. The two-term Democrat outspent Lange by a five-to-one margin to eke out a 48.47 percent to 46.52 percent win. A pair of conservative third-party candidates captured nearly 6,200 votes - more than the 1.95 percent margin that separated Braley and Lange.

True, IA-01 was one of the few races in Iowa where third-party candidates received more votes than the margin between the two main competitors. But it's misleading to say that Braley outspent Lange without mentioning the huge money dropped by the American Future Fund. Braley had some outside support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and labor-backed groups, but not nearly as much as Ryan's group spent against Braley. I doubt that the pro-Braley spending exceeded the anti-Braley spending in the district.

I expect the American Future Fund to become involved in the IA-01 race again, especially if Lange is the GOP nominee. In July, Lange endorsed presidential candidate Rick Santorum, for whom Nick Ryan is working as a paid consultant.

Any relevant thoughts are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Braley was asked about Lange's announcement on Wednesday:

"I have no input into the Republican nominating process that will decide who my opponent will be in 2012," Braley said. "I'm focusing right now on doing my job and getting ready for this important field hearing in Waterloo next week, which is what the voters in the 1st District of Iowa elected me to do."
The field hearing of the U.S. House Veterans Affairs Subcommittee on Economic Opportunity is scheduled for Monday, Oct. 17, beginning at 10 a.m. at the Waterloo Community Schools Education Service Center. The focus will be Veterans Job Creation and Braley intends to hear testimony from both local employers and veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan.

Here's the full text of Lange's campaign announcement:

Over the past several months, I have been humbled by the encouragement from Iowans all across the political spectrum. A question I have been frequently asked is: "Ben, will you consider running for Congress again?"
Today I am answering this question in the affirmative by establishing a 2012 congressional exploratory committee in Iowa's new 1st congressional district. The purpose of this committee is to determine, among other things, whether sufficient numbers of Iowans are willing to invest their time, energy, and resources to finish the job we started last cycle.
My initial decision to run for congress was influenced by the trajectory of our country towards higher unemployment, a shriveling economy, dramatically more federal control over our lives, and the impact this would have on my two (now three) little girls.
I was concerned that the policies advocated by President Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Bruce Braley would do little to stem the financial problems we are facing and would instead cause sustained harm to our economic future and our way of life. Mounting evidence suggests my original concerns were well-founded and nothing has changed my belief that Iowans deserve better.
My decision to establish an exploratory committee should indicate to Iowans of all stripes that my family and I are again willing to make the sacrifices in our personal and professional lives to finish the job we started last cycle, but I am going to need your help.
Removing entrenched politicians is never easy. And over the next several weeks, I will be making a determination of whether the people of Iowa are serious about the 1st congressional district and whether they are willing to invest sufficient resources to win in 2012.
To demonstrate your commitment to this race, please visit www.langeforcongress.com and make a contribution of $20.12 to show your support. We have unfinished business in Iowa's 1st congressional district and, together, I believe we could send Bruce Braley home for good.

Republicans nominate Cindy Golding for Iowa Senate district 18

desmoinesdem — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 04:29:58 GMT

Linn County Republican Party co-chair Cindy Golding won the GOP nomination for the November 8 special election in Iowa Senate district 18 tonight. To my surprise, Golding won enough votes on the first ballot against Mary Rathje and Matt Dummermuth.

UPDATE: Republicans will need a new candidate for the Cedar Rapids suburban swing district in 2012, even if Golding wins this year's special election. Details are at the end of this post.
Click here for background on Golding, Rathje and Dummermuth. Only Golding has prior experience as a candidate; she lost the 2002 GOP primary to Kraig Paulsen in House district 35. Fifty delegates from Senate district 18 participated in tonight's nominating convention. Their votes were weighted based on how many votes were cast in each precinct for the 2008 GOP nominee in Senate district 18. Golding received 51.64 percent of the vote, with Dummermuth a distant second at 28.14 percent. Rathje received 20.22 percent.

The voting delegates weren't put off by Golding's $50 donation to Democrat Ed Fallon's 2006 gubernatorial campaign. Her long history of activism in local politics and business associations should be enough evidence of her conservative bona fides.

I didn't expect Rathje to finish in third place. She was rumored to be the favored candidate of Governor Terry Branstad and Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, who represents half of Senate district 18.

After winning the nomination, Golding described Democratic candidate Liz Mathis as a "formidable opponent." Mathis has never run for office before, but she is widely known in the greater Cedar Rapids metro area.

Craig Robinson pointed out this week,

Golding lives in the western portion of Senate District 18 as it is currently constructed. If she wishes to be more than a temporary fill-in, she would have to move in order to continue representing the district after the 2012 elections.

The "old" Senate district 18 looks like this:

The winner of the November 8 election will need to run in the new Senate district 34 in 2012. The redrawn district looks like this:

At the district convention, Rathje's nominator argued that it was important to have a candidate from Marion, a Cedar Rapids suburb that is the largest municipality in Senate district 18. Swati Dandekar, the Democrat who resigned last week, lives in Marion, as did her Republican predecessor Mary Lundby.

Democratic candidate Mathis lives near Robins, which is part of both the current district 18 and the new district 34.

The Iowa Democratic Party sent out an e-mail blast Thursday urging activists to help canvass in Linn County on September 24. The Iowa GOP has also started mobilizing volunteers for this campaign. Because control of the Iowa Senate is at stake, this special election campaign may become the most expensive state legislative race in Iowa history. Iowa GOP Chair Matt Strawn has predicted $1 million in total spending. I would expect a higher total if you include money outside groups and political action committees will spend on this race.

Any comments about the special election are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Even if Golding wins this November, Linn County Republicans will need to find a new candidate in the Marion area in 2012. In his live chat of the nominating convention, Craig Robinson reports that Golding confirmed she would not move into Senate district 34. Instead, she would seek re-election in the new Senate district 48. State Representative Nate Willems will be the Democratic candidate there. Republican Dan Zumbach of Delaware County has already formed a campaign committee to run in Senate district 48. Here's a close-up view of that district:

SECOND UPDATE: Todd Dorman writes,

I went into the convention thinking Rathje was probably the favorite, with the apparent backing of Gov. Branstad and other top Republicans.
But during questioning, it became clear that Golding was the most articulate, enthusiastic, prepared and polished candidate. Rathje seemed pretty nervous at times totally unprepared for a grilling. Dummermuth is a smart, thoughtful and accomplished guy, but, how can I put this gently, he's got an enthusiasm/emotion deficiency. [...]
Anyway, Golding mopped up. If there hadn't been Q&A, it might have been different, or at least a tighter vote.
I think Golding could be a fairly formidable candidate. You'd better get used to hearing the numbers 4 and 6. She and her husband have four businesses and six children. She noted that, oh, about 174 times.
She has some Statehouse lobbying experience tied to her work with the National Federation of Independent Business and the Farm Bureau. [That] helped her be more conversant on state issues than her rivals, like when she explained that school reform and property tax reform are linked.

THIRD UPDATE: Branstad's spokesman Tim Albrecht confirmed on September 23 that the governor had encouraged Rathje to seek the GOP nomination.

Willems (D) announces bid in Iowa Senate district 48

desmoinesdem — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 14:37:07 GMT

Two-term State Representative Nate Willems announced this morning that he will run for the Iowa Senate in the new district 48 in northeast Iowa. Willems was first elected in 2008 to Iowa House district 29, comprising parts of Linn and Johnson Counties. He is the ranking Democrat on the Iowa House Education Committee.

Senate district 48 comprises all of Delaware County, most of Linn County (other than Cedar Rapids and its suburbs), and part of Jones and Buchanan counties. Part of Willems' current district (southeast Linn County, including the towns of Mount Vernon and Lisbon) are in Senate district 48. He grew up in Anamosa (Jones County), which is also in the district. After the jump I've posted the detailed map of the Senate district 48, the map showing all 50 new Iowa Senate districts, and Willems' campaign announcement.

No incumbent senator lives in the new district 48, and it is one of the most evenly-balanced districts created in the redistricting plan. As of April 2011 the district contained 11,553 registered Democrats, 11,552 Republicans and 15,559 no-party voters.

Democrats currently hold a 26 to 24 majority in the Iowa Senate. For Democrats to maintain that majority after the 2012 elections, district 48 is probably a must-win.

April 18, 2011:

Willems Announces Candidacy for State Senate
Nate Willems, an employment attorney and two-term State Representative from Lisbon, has announced his candidacy for the Iowa State Senate. Willems will run for Senate District 48, which includes Delaware and parts of Linn, Jones & Buchanan counties. The district is currently vacant due to redistricting.
"I have worked hard in the Iowa House on programs that foster job growth and improve access to quality, affordable education for Iowa families," Willems said. "I believe that a strong, forward-looking educational system is critical to the future economic success of our kids. We must continue to improve our schools and colleges so that our workers can get the job training that today's economy demands and so our kids can learn the skills for the jobs of tomorrow."
Willems said he was excited by the opportunity to represent the communities that make up Senate District 48.
"It has been a tremendous privilege to serve the people of Eastern Iowa in the Iowa House and I look forward to opportunity to continue to serve them in the Iowa Senate," Willems said. "My wife and I grew up in this new senate district and we're raising our family here because it's a great place to live."
Willems and his wife, Maggie, live in Lisbon and are the parents of two daughters, Ava who is 2 and Emery, 1. Nate is an Associate at Rush & Nicholson, P.L.C. He is also active in the Lincoln Highway Lisbon Lions Club. Maggie teaches Social Studies at Mount Vernon High School and coaches high school volleyball and track. Nate and Maggie are members of First Presbyterian Church in Mount Vernon.
Willems is a 1997 graduate of Anamosa High School, a 2001 graduate of Georgetown University and a 2007 graduate of the University of Iowa College of Law.
Willems promised to campaign by talking personally with as many voters as possible across the district.
"I believe that listening is one of the best ways to learn," said Willems. "People are welcome to call me at my home, 319-455-3014 or email me at nwillems@gmail.com."