Bleeding Heartland - Walt Rogers

New IA-01 candidate speculation thread

desmoinesdem — Fri, 17 May 2013 12:10:00 GMT

It's time for a new thread on the open first Congressional district seat. So far former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate. Former State Senator Swati Dandekar formed an exploratory committee last week. State Senator Jeff Danielson of the Cedar Falls/Waterloo area has said he's keeping his options open. I expect a decision relatively soon after the legislative session wraps up.

Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon "is nearly ready to announce" her candidacy, Rick Smith reported. She was first elected to the council in 2007, switched parties in 2009, and was re-elected in 2011. Cedar Rapids plaintiff's attorney Dave O'Brien may also run, Jennifer Jacobs reported. O'Brien's background is similar to Bruce Braley's before his first campaign in 2006.

State Representative Tyler Olson, who also chairs the Iowa Democratic Party, hasn't ruled out running for Congress, but some Polk County Democrats believe that if he runs for higher office next year, it will be against Governor Terry Branstad.

On the Republican side, Cedar Rapids business owner Steve Rathje and Dubuque business owner Rod Blum are already seeking the nomination in IA-01. Once the legislature adjourns for the year, my hunch is that a Republican lawmaker will join the race. State Representative Walt Rogers of the Cedar Falls/Waterloo area confirmed earlier this year that he's thinking about it.

The Iowa Republican's Kevin Hall reported last month that former Secretary of State and Cedar Rapids Mayor Paul Pate is "90 percent" likely to run for office in 2014. I think Pate would be a strong general election candidate but might have trouble winning an IA-01 GOP primary. It's also possible that he may run for Secretary of State again if Matt Schultz goes for the open U.S. Senate seat.

Current Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett is running for re-election and seems to have ruled out the IA-01 race, judging from his recent comments to Todd Dorman.

After the jump I've posted the latest voter registration numbers for the 20 counties in IA-01. Linn County is the largest by population, but it doesn't dominate the district. About 30 percent of the registered Democrats, 28 percent of the Republicans, and 27 percent of the no-party voters in IA-01 live in Linn County.
The voter registration totals come from the Iowa Secretary of State's website.

Active voter registration numbers as of May 2013

IA-01

County	Democrats	Republicans	no-party voters
Allamakee	2,194	4,263	3,096
Benton	4,622	4,965	7,409
Black Hawk	29,053	20,583	31,781
Bremer	3,796	5,015	7,326
Buchanan	3,842	3,129	6,364
Clayton	3,403	3,244	4,751
Delaware	2,573	3,828	4,922
Dubuque	24,909	14,774	22,553
Fayette	3,718	4,082	4,124
Howard	1,878	1,443	2,495
Iowa	2,774	3,669	4,764
Jackson	5,656	2,605	5,386
Jones	3,540	3,670	5,911
Linn	49,666	37,948	52,303
Marshall	7,379	7,477	8,937
Mitchell	1,783	2,495	2,662
Poweshiek	3,704	3,655	5,010
Tama	3,360	3,394	4,472
Winnishiek	3,543	4,465	5,119
Worth	1,515	1,749	1,942

total	162,908	136,453	191,327

Latest tactics to bring Republicans around on Medicaid expansion

desmoinesdem — Fri, 10 May 2013 15:20:00 GMT

The Iowa legislature's 2013 session is already in overtime, and the standoff over whether to expand Medicaid is one of the last obstacles to adjournment. A conference committee including five lawmakers from each party has been seeking middle ground between Medicaid expansion, a priority for the 26 Senate Democrats, and the "Healthy Iowa Plan" that barely cleared the Iowa House but failed in the Senate.

This week Senate Democrats offered another gesture toward the Republican desire for low-income Iowans to have more "skin in the game" when they obtain health insurance coverage.

Meanwhile, three major advocacy groups stepped up their efforts to persuade lawmakers that the Healthy Iowa Plan offers inferior access for patients while incurring substantially higher property tax costs.

Finally, a coalition of progressive organizations announced that it will run a television commercial this Sunday targeting GOP State Representative Dave Heaton, the weakest link among House Republicans trying to pass Governor Terry Branstad's alternative plan. Details on all those developments are after the jump.
These ten lawmakers serve on conference committee working on the Medicaid issue:

Senate President Pam Jochum (D)
Senator Amanda Ragan (D)
Senator Jack Hatch (D)
Senator Nancy Boettger (R)
Senator David Johnson (R)
State Representative Dave Heaton (R)
State Representative Walt Rogers (R)
State Representative Joel Fry (R)
State Representative Tyler Olson (D)
State Representative Mark Smith (D)

Yesterday, Senate Democrats announced a new compromise to make Medicaid expansion more acceptable to Republicans. From a May 9 press release (emphasis in original, click the link to view a video):

During a meeting today with House negotiators, negotiators for the Iowa Senate today proposed a compromise plan designed to increase access to affordable health care for Iowans.
1) In response to Republican concerns, the Senate Democratic compromise waives copays if participants participate in annual physical exams and make other healthy choices.
2) In response to Republican concerns, the Senate Democratic compromise strengthens language on improving the health of Iowans.
3) Senate Democrats still support the "opt-out" compromise included in the Senate's original bill.
"We have compromised on the top concerns of Governor Branstad and House Republicans," said Senate President Pam Jochum. "However, we continue to strongly oppose the Republican approach which spends MORE in federal, state and local property tax dollars to provide LESS help to Iowans."
Jochum said negotiations had reached a delicate point.
"This weekend, legislators will be at home in their districts," Jochum said. "Now's the time for Iowans to speak up in support of affordable health care for low paid, working Iowans. We can help bring these working Iowa families better health and improved financial security."

Radio Iowa's O.Kay Henderson reported,

Democrats in the legislature who simply want to expand the existing Medicaid program to cover 150,000 more Iowans are offering to link co-pays for all current and future Medicaid recipients to health and wellness initiatives. Senator Jack Hatch, a Democrat from Des Moines, says Democrats would waive those co-pays for those who get regular check-ups and take steps to improve their health, like quitting smoking or losing weight, but a trip to the emergency room for a minor health issue would require a co-pay.
"We're going to ask patients to participate in their own health care," Hatch says. "...The Republicans have talked about 'skin in the game.' We're going to include that in our proposal."
Republican Governor Terry Branstad's "Healthy Iowa Plan" requires a monthly premium payment of $10, but premiums could be reduced for those who take steps to improve their health. Senator David Johnson, a Republican from Ocheyedan, says there's "still a long way to go" before the gap between Democrats and Republicans is bridged.
"It's opened the door a crack, I would say," Johnson says of this latest offer from Democrats.

Rogers, the Iowa House floor manager of the alternative bill, called the compromise "a slight move" in the right direction, while Governor Terry Branstad's spokesman Tim Albrecht commented,

"We are pleased to see this issue moving forward and see this as a positive development," he wrote in an email. "We view this proposal as a thoughtful, good faith compromise effort and will continue to carefully review it."

I hope Republicans will take this opportunity to declare victory on "personal responsibility," while accepting that Medicaid expansion makes more sense for Iowans.

On Wednesday, the AARP, Iowa State Association of Counties, and American Cancer Society's Cancer Action Network held a press conference at the capitol to underscore the benefits of expanding Medicaid, rather than going the Branstad route.

The governor's plan is financed with $85 million in local property taxes. Anthony Carroll, AARP's Iowa associate state director, said AARP members are being shown another map which indicates only a handful of Iowa hospitals would qualify to provide the care - so uninsured Iowans in far southwest Iowa's Fremont County, for example, would have to go to Des Moines to visit a doctor under the governor's plan.
"Really now it's about showing the differences to people who aren't maybe directly impacted by low income Iowans. They don't have a family or a friend member (who is uninsured) and when you talk about especially your local dollars being used for something that may not provide local coverage, that's a sharp difference," Carroll said. "That's what's new here."
Dr. Richard Deming, an oncologist in Des Moines, is part of the American Cancer Society's Cancer Action Network.
He says a major flaw in the governor's plan is that only a handful of health care systems that win a special "accountable care organization" designation will provide the care to Iowans enrolled in the "Healthy Iowa Plan."
"I'm all about personal responsibility and accountability, but if you don't have access to health care, accountability and responsibility is really a moot point," Deming said.

Since a picture is worth a thousand words, I enclose the graphics prepared by the AARP. This one shows how much more the Healthy Iowa Plan will cost in county property taxes alone.

This graphic shows how much broader access will be if low-income Iowans are able to enroll in Medicaid, rather than in the Healthy Iowa Plan:

Among the five Republicans on the conference committee, Heaton is the weakest link. He understands the major flaws in Branstad's plan and only reluctantly provided the 51st vote for it in the Iowa House.

The Healthiest Iowa Initiative coalition of many groups is urging Iowans to call Representative Heaton about this issue. This commercial started running online on May 9 and will run on Des Moines and Quad Cities television on Sunday, May 12.

From a press release by Progress Iowa:

"We encourage all Iowans, and particularly those in Representative Heaton's district, to contact him and tell him to support full Medicaid expansion," said Matt Sinovic, executive director of Progress Iowa. "Representative Heaton will cast a key vote on the conference committee that is split down party lines, as well as a key vote when the bill returns to the Iowa House. It's crucial for Iowans to express their concerns to him by calling and emailing in these final days of the legislative session."
The ad released today highlights the benefits of full Medicaid expansion: covering an additional 150,000 Iowans at limited cost to the taxpayers, in comparison to Governor Branstad's Healthy Iowa Plan, which will cover 60,000 fewer Iowans and cost the state an estimated $163 million more every year.
Uninsured young adults, veterans, the working poor, and the mentally ill would all benefit from full Medicaid expansion. In addition, expansion would create more than 2,000 jobs, according to a report released by the Iowa Hospital Association.
Throughout the legislative session, Progress Iowa has worked in coalition with 27 organizations, who formed the Healthiest Iowa Initiative, to educate Iowans and call them to action in support of Medicaid expansion.

UPDATE: The Des Moines Register's Jason Noble tweeted on May 9, "I just asked Rep. Dave Heaton if he's been getting calls on Medicaid expansion. Then his phone rang & he took a call on Medicaid expansion."

Iowa House barely approves alternative to Medicaid expansion

desmoinesdem — Wed, 01 May 2013 11:45:00 GMT

Last night the Iowa House approved by 51 votes to 49 a version of Governor Terry Branstad's alternative to expanding Medicaid. Two Republicans opposed the plan, but State Representative Dave Heaton fell in line despite his major doubts about the bill.

Details on the vote and highlights from the debate are after the jump.
Branstad's Healthy Iowa Plan was introduced to the legislature a few weeks ago as House Study Bill 232, but instead of moving that legislation, House leaders opted to amend Senate File 296, the Medicaid expansion bill state senators approved in March on a party-line vote. A new House bill would have been rejected by the Iowa Senate, so passing a House version of Senate File 296 was the fastest way to get this legislation to a conference committee.

During last night's session, House Republicans approved the House Appropriations Committee amendment replacing all text in the Medicaid expansion bill with language about the Healthy Iowa Plan. You can read that amendment here (H-1373). You can find details on the House debate in the House Journal (pdf).

A couple of minor changes to the Appropriations Committee amendment passed overwhelmingly, but the vote to substitute the Healthy Iowa Plan language for the Senate's Medicaid expansion language barely passed, 51 to 49. Republicans Josh Burnes and Brian Moore joined all 47 House Democrats to vote no. Just one day after warning that the governor's plan was full of problems, House Health and Human Services Appropriations Subcommittee Chair Dave Heaton gave GOP leaders the 51st vote they needed to approve the Healthy Iowa Plan.

The subsequent vote on final passage reflected the same 51 to 49 split, with Byrnes an Moore joining the 47 Democrats. It's not the first time Byrnes has moved away from his own party's orthodoxy. Moore represents the most Democratic Iowa House seat currently in GOP hands. At last count, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans in House district 58 by more than 3,000.

Republican State Representative Walt Rogers, floor manager of the Healthy Iowa Plan bill, asserted during last night's debate,

"It's important for us to embrace the Healthy Iowa Plan, [...] "It's a good plan, and it counters what we've seen in Medicaid for years. Medicaid is devouring budgets, nationwide and state budgets."

Rogers was unable to explain one small problem: not only does the Healthy Iowa Plan require more funding from state and local governments, covering about 89,000 people through the Healthy Iowa Plan would also cost the federal government more than simply expanding Medicaid to cover up to 150,000 additional people.

No wonder Democratic State Representative John Forbes said last night,

"The math doesn't work for me," said Rep. John Forbes, D-Urbandale and a pharmacist who said he's spent much of his career serving Medicaid patients. "I think if I took this Healthy Iowa business plan model to my banker, he'd probably just laugh at me and throw it in the garbage."

The math doesn't work for Republican Heaton either, but he decided to put aside his misgivings in order to improve the plan in conference committee negotiations.

"I'm going to vote for this bill today so that we can get together with the senate and sit down and figure a better bill," Heaton said, "to correct some of the things that I think are wrong with it and I think a lot of the people in this room think is wrong with it."
Heaton faults the governor's plan for creating waiting lists for health care services and using $85.5 million in property taxes to help pay for the coverage.

I believe Heaton made a tactical error. Joining Byrnes, Moore, and the House Democrats to reject this bill would have made clear that Branstad's plan is a non-starter. Then the discussion would have shifted to finding a way to amend the Medicaid expansion bill to address some additional Republican concerns. Senators have already added language about wellness and prevention and given Iowa an "out" in case the federal government doesn't meet its Medicaid funding obligations.

There are lots of ways to tweak a Medicaid expansion bill, but no real middle ground between expanding Medicaid and doing something completely different. The House and Senate conference committee will waste additional time arguing about whether to expand Medicaid, with Republicans invested in something they can call "our own."

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

Republican lawmaker voices doubts on alternative to Medicaid expansion

desmoinesdem — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 13:35:00 GMT

For months, I've been wondering if and when some Republican lawmakers would balk at supporting Governor Terry Branstad's "costs more, covers less" alternative to expanding Medicaid in Iowa.

For the first time yesterday, an Iowa House Republican said he may not vote for Branstad's plan. I doubt it's a coincidence that the wavering lawmaker is unusually knowledgeable about health care services in Iowa.
A bill outlining Branstad's Healthy Iowa Plan arrived at the legislature a few weeks ago. Yesterday Iowa House Appropriations Committee voted on party lines to send it to the full chamber. Jason Noble reported for the Des Moines Register that State Representative Dave Heaton "offered unusually blunt criticism" of the plan.

Heaton, the chairman of the House Health and Human Services Appropriations Subcommittee from Mount Pleasant, questioned whether a federal marketplace for private insurance that is a key component of the plan would be available for use by enrollees, doubted whether the proposal could pass muster with the federal agency that would provide much of its funding and worried that the plan would raid local property tax dollars needed for mental health services.
"This is the most significant vote that I will have made in the 20 years that I've been here," he predicted. He added, "At this present time I don't know how I'm going to vote."
Heaton supported advancing the bill out of the House Appropriations Committee on Monday out of loyalty to his GOP caucus, but said when the bill comes up on the floor, "it's a whole 'nother ballgame." [...]
He noted in particular that eligibility for the program could be capped if federal funds aren't available. The feds will never agree to such a restriction, he said.

Heaton has chaired the House Health and Human Services Appropriations Subcommittee since Republicans regained the House majority for the 2011 legislative session. He's probably forgotten more about health care delivery in Iowa than this bill's floor manager Walt Rogers will ever know.

Not only does Heaton know more about this subject than most of his GOP colleagues, he has served in the Iowa House since 1994. Only one of the 53 House Republicans (Jack Drake) has more legislative experience.

Heaton isn't afraid to rock the boat; earlier this year, he questioned the Branstad administration's policy on driver's license for some undocumented immigrants. His comments helped generate momentum for reversing that policy.

Heaton didn't say yesterday that he will vote against the Healthy Iowa Plan on the House floor, but if he does, it would take only two other Republican doubters to keep the alternative to Medicaid expansion from passing.

House leaders will presumably twist Heaton's arm to bring him around before the bill comes to a vote. They might point out that the plan could be improved in a conference committee after the Iowa Senate rejects the House version. All 26 Iowa Senate Democrats are committed to expanding Medicaid, as foreseen in the 2010 federal health care reform law.

It would be smarter for a few House Republicans to join Democrats in rejecting this bill. Spencer Hospital President Bill Bumgarner wrote in a guest editorial for the Spencer Daily Reporter,

Governor Terry Branstad's proposed Healthy Iowa Plan - while well intended - is not practical and reflects a misunderstanding of health care access challenges in rural Iowa. Most notably, Iowans who are part of this newly covered population may not be able to use local hospitals and physicians. It would also be more costly to the State of Iowa by not maximizing the availability of federal government dollars over the next five years. Our first objective should be to provide increased access to care before considering the more complex health improvement initiatives proposed by the governor. [...]
A decision against extending Medicaid coverage to more Iowans also could have a financial impact on health care providers. Spencer Hospital and other Iowa health care providers already serve those who would benefit from Medicaid expansion when they become so sick they need care in our emergency departments - and we absorb those costs as unreimbursed charity care. This too reflects the hospital's mission, but the rate of growth for charity care is unsustainable and undermines our ability to support the overall demand not only for hospital services, but for other community-benefiting programs that, frankly, only our organization can provide.
More importantly, the emergency department is no replacement for a personal physician. Expanding Medicaid will improve access to primary care providers and begin the process of driving down costs by offering care earlier after a health condition arises rather than delaying treatment until it becomes more serious -- and more expensive - to treat. [...]
If Iowa legislators decide against Medicaid expansion and support the alternative Healthy Iowa Plan, we will be left with the worst of both worlds: providing more uncompensated care for Iowans still not eligible for Medicaid while receiving less money from the federal government to cover these costs.

"Accountability" and "outcome-based solutions" have been key Republican buzzwords during the Medicaid debate this year. Cancer specialist Dr. Richard Deming pointed out in recent testimony to Iowa lawmakers,

I'm in favor of patient accountability, but before we can have accountability, we need access. Without access, there is no opportunity for accountability.
Each and every day I see individuals who do not have insurance who present with advanced cancer because they put off seeking medical attention until it's too late. Without access, individuals do not get preventive services, do not get early detection screenings and do not obtain services when cancer is in an early stage.
Eventually they become ill as their cancer progresses and eventually they ask for help and eventually they come to see me with advanced cancer. At that point, it's often too late to be able to cure their cancer.
For me, this debate is not primarily about the finances and it's certainly not about my pocketbook. It's about human dignity and social justice. I have never ever turned down a patient because he or she wasn't able to pay. I never will, regardless of how this vote goes.
But if individuals don't have access, they won't attempt to obtain prevention and early detection. They will come to me for free care when I can no longer cure them of their cancer because it is too advanced. [...]
I agree with the governor that we need to reform health care and make it more accountable. We at Mercy are "all in" when it comes to accountable care. We have already developed an accountable care plan for our own employees. We have developed an accountable care plan for our Medicare patients and we have developed an accountable care plan for a segment of our privately insured patients. We have already had a meeting with the Medicaid office to discuss developing accountable care around Medicaid.
Iowa needs to work with the federal government to develop a plan to provide accountable care for the Medicaid population. But this can be done through Medicaid expansion.
Governor Branstad and Iowa legislators, I promise you this:
If we expand Medicaid, Mercy will work with you and the Medicaid program to help develop a system of accountable care for Medicaid patients. I will personally work with you to help bring health systems and physicians to the table to work on an innovative way for Iowa to create accountable care for our Medicaid enrollees. As I said, we are already doing it for Medicare, we are doing it for our employees, we are doing it for some of our privately insured - and we can do it for Medicaid.

Heaton should recruit two other brave Iowa House Republicans to reject Branstad's alternative. Then the focus of the debate can shift to improving Medicaid as we expand the program to cover more indigent Iowans.

Iowa Medicaid expansion news roundup (updated)

desmoinesdem — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 20:35:00 GMT

Last week Governor Terry Branstad finally introduced legislation to enact his Healthy Iowa Plan instead of the Medicaid expansion foreseen under the 2010 federal health insurance reform law. Strangely, neither the governor's office nor the Iowa House Republican caucus held a news conference or even posted a press release about House Study Bill 232. The bill arrived at the statehouse on Thursday, April 4, after many legislators had left for the weekend.

So far House and Senate Republicans appear united behind Branstad's approach, while the governor's office strives to counter the obvious case against his plan (costs more, covers less). I've posted arguments for both sides and other news links after the jump.
The Democratic-controlled Iowa Senate already approved a Medicaid expansion bill in late March, along party lines. On April 4, Republicans on the Iowa House Ways and Means Committee took up that bill and replaced the entire text with one paragraph stating the "intent of the general assembly that health care delivery in the state result in improved patient health outcomes, improved patient care, and reduced cost."

Later the same day, Branstad's bill finally arrived at the statehouse. You can read the full text of House Study Bill 232 here.

State Representative Walt Rogers will floor-manage Branstad's plan in the House. He talked to Tony Leys of the Des Moines Register about the process.

Rep. Walt Rogers, a Cedar Falls Republican who is managing the new bill, said the Republican-controlled House will consider Branstad's ideas and the Medicaid-expansion proposal put forth by Democrats controlling the Senate.
Rogers said he liked the notion of encouraging personal health responsibility, but he suggested the House would consider changes to Branstad's proposal. "I would expect us to look at it and tweak it here and there. ... I'm hoping we can make this even better," he said.
Rogers said there was no conscious attempt to time the bill's introduction so it would gain little attention.

Sure there wasn't.

Side note: Rogers is also a possible candidate for Congress next year. If he seeks the Republican nomination in the first district, whatever compromises he makes on expanding health insurance coverage could hurt him in the GOP primary. The public benefit in reducing the number of uninsured Iowans might seem obvious to most people, but hard-core Republican primary voters are more likely to oppose any expansion of health care at the government's expense.

Back to the main topic of this post: Branstad's alternative to Medicaid expansion. The immediate reaction from Senate Democratic leaders was quite negative. Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal told an audience in Council Bluffs that the governor's plan is "absurd."

Branstad, who has rejected federal funding in fear that it won't be sustainable, has a plan with accountability by Medicaid-eligible patients requiring them to pay $500 to $1,000 with the state matching that amount.
"These are people who can't keep their washing machines running," Gronstal said at the year's final Legislative Coffee. "The concept of them coming up with $500 to $1,000 is absurd on its face. The governor doesn't have any idea what poverty is in this state."
What's more, Gronstal said, the governor's plan would only help a portion of low-income people leaving up to 60,000 who are eligible without any coverage. That means everyone else pays up to $1,000 a year for uncompensated services like this.
"It will be rejected in the Senate," Gronstal said of the governor's plan.

Democratic Senator Mary Jo Wilhelm delivered this speech on the Senate floor on April 8 (transcript provided by the Iowa Senate):

Thank you, Madam President.
Since I talked about when I was an Iowa worker who couldn't afford health insurance, I've heard from many Iowans in the same situation.
People like this woman from southeast Iowa:
"For years I worked as a waitress, and had no insurance.
"A lot of people do not realize that if you don't have insurance, it probably takes everything you earn just to make ends meet."
That is the best argument for Medicaid expansion.
Here's a woman who made it in just one sentence.
"As a small business owner and recently divorced woman, I do not have health insurance as of the first of this year."
These are the Iowans who need our help.
Working Iowans living without health insurance.
Most other states are expanding Medicaid.
What happened to Iowa?
Well, Governor Branstad has finally released his plan. It is packed with premiums, co-pays and other "gotchas" to deny working people health insurance.
How did we get here? Well, let me tell you.
Last July, the U.S. Supreme Court said states could choose to expand Medicaid or not.
Governor Branstad immediately announced he would come up with a better plan.
A couple of days later, he changed his mind.
On July 15, in a C-SPAN interview, Governor Branstad said he was working instead to elect Mitt Romney so health care reform would be repealed.
Well, we know how that turned out.
What has Governor Branstad done since the election?
He's encouraged Iowans to walk more and eat more fruits and vegetables.
He's joked that helping working Iowans get health insurance was like letting people drink at an open bar.
He's said he wants working people who can't afford real insurance to pay for some sort of Branstad Insurance-Lite.
Last week, he released a plan that does just that.
Here's what Governor Branstad didn't do.
Governor Branstad did not come up with a plan that is better than Medicaid expansion.
The Governor's plan costs more, covers fewer people, and provides less health care.
That's why the Branstad plan is no plan at all.
Thank you, Madame President.

I can't see why the U.S. Health and Human Services Department would approve this alternative to expanding Medicaid. It doesn't cover as many people or provide the same kind of benefits. At this writing, no advocacy groups in the health care arena have registered their lobbyists in support of House Study Bill 232, in contrast to more than 50 organizations that support expanding Medicaid in Iowa. Nevertheless, so far I haven't heard any Republican lawmaker criticize the governor's plan. Senate Minority Leader Bill Dix made several unconvincing arguments on its behalf over the weekend on WHO-TV. He seems to believe that any state-specific "Iowa plan" will be superior to a federal program.

As Bleeding Heartland has discussed before, Senate Democrats addressed the governor's concern that the federal government would not meet its commitments on Medicaid funding in future years. The bill approved by the Iowa Senate would allow Iowa to opt out of the Medicaid expansion if federal funding fell through. However, Branstad is still warning that Iowa can't afford to take a chance on Medicaid. This week, he has tried to push back against a core problem with his alternative: it costs more and delivers less. I enclose a chart the governor's staff began circulating around the statehouse this week:

The Iowa Senate responded with this joint statement by the main Democratic lawmakers working on the Medicaid expansion:

Refuting the Governor's "true side-by-side comparison" on health care
Joint statement by Senators Jochum, Hatch, Ragan, and Bolkcom
"We welcome the fact that Governor Branstad is finally engaging in the health care debate.
"Yet the 'true side-by-side comparison' he issued today is a disappointment. Below is a factual rebuttal.
"At stake is health insurance for struggling working Iowans, lower health care costs for all Iowans, and the long-term strength and competitiveness of our state's health care system.
"Based on public statements and private conversations, we are confident that the Iowa House and Senate will do what is necessary to move Iowa forward in this area."
end
Refuting the Governor's "true side-by-side comparison" on health care
Governor's document can be found here: http://tinyurl.com/br5gjan
Branstad Claim: "Iowans with below 100% FPL will be served by the Healthy Iowa Plan,..."
89,000 uninsured working Iowans making less than 100% of FPL would be covered under the Governor's "Healthy Iowans Plan," under the federal waiver the governor hopes to receive.
If the Governor receives such a waiver, Iowa will pay 40% of the cost while the fed pay 60%. Under Medicaid expansion, Iowa would pay at most 10% while the feds pay at least 90% after the 7th year. There is no state share for the first three years.
Branstad Claim: "...Iowans above 100% accessing health care through the affordable health benefits exchange."
61,000 uninsured working Iowans who earn between 101 and 138 % of FPL would buy private insurance throughout the federal exchange. Each person covered in this way will cost the federal government up to $3000 more than if they were covered by Medicaid. To recover some of that extra expense, Iowa small businesses will penalized as much $19 million by the federal government.
Branstad Claim: "Rewards Quality Health Care Outcomes: Yes, in Year 1"
Everyone knows this claim is not true. The governor is talking about Accountable Care Organizations (ACO), a complex new approach to improving health care outcomes. There is only one ACO currently in Iowa, a pilot project located in Fort Dodge. There is no simply no realistic way for the Governor's untried approach to implemented next year. Establishing working ACOs will take several years to accomplish.
The Senate plan for Medicaid expansion expands "medical homes," the cost-effective coordination of a single patient's care by medical and community support providers. The study referred to by the governor is the Senate's responsible strategy of working with Iowa's health care providers so the move to ACOs will be successful.
Branstad Claim: "Member Contributions: Yes, similar to the successful and popular Hawk-I program"
The Governor's effort to rebrand insurance premiums as "member contributions" will be rejected by the federal government. Medicaid funds clearly cannot be used for premium-based insurance schemes for persons under 150 FPL.
In addition, charging struggling working people premiums for insurance results in denying them insurance. Under the Governor's plan, Iowans who pay their rent, buy food, or make car payments and therefore miss a premium payment, will lose their insurance for a year. By failing to insure these people, the Governor's plan will drive every other Iowan's health costs.
Branstad Claim: "Estimated Cost to the State of Iowa at Full Implementation: Branstad Plan - $23 million"
Governor's claim that his plan costs $23 million leaves out the following annual costs:
$43 million in property taxes from every county in Iowa, an action which will likely torpedo the new mental health reform effort
$42 million from Broadlawns Hospital
$13 million from the University of Iowa Hospitals
$42 million dollars in general fund money
Branstad Claim: "Estimated Cost to the State of Iowa at Full Implementation: Medicaid Expansion - $83.4 million"
The $89 million listed by the Governor is the estimated cost of for a FULL year of the Senate plan for Medicaid expansion in 2020, when the state share finally reaches 10%. For the first three years, the state share is 0%. After that, it increases to a maximum of 10% of 2020.
The true apples- to-apple cost of each plan in the first full year is $162 million for the governor's plan and $5 million for the Senate Democratic plan. This $5 million is for administrative costs, no matter which plan is approved.
The true apples- to-apple cost of each plan in 2020 is difficult to determine. Since the Governor's plan costs $162 million in 2014 and increases from there, the cost is certain to be more than the estimated $89 million cost of the Senate plan in 2020.

Anyone can read House Study Bill 232 and see that it's going to cost a lot more than $23 million per year.

At the governor's weekly press conference on Monday, Branstad said lawmakers should "get past the hyper-partisanship and try to come up with a practical plan that will meet the needs of this state for the long-term." His communications director Tim Albrecht accused State Senator Jack Hatch of being

a "political opportunist" hoping to launch a gubernatorial campaign on the backs of Medicaid recipients.
"Jack Hatch is angry, because he attached his health care hopes to a failed, 1960s' program like Medicaid while Gov. Branstad instead offers a modern health care plan that will make its patients healthier," said Tim Albrecht, Branstad's communications director.

The Iowa House has scheduled a public hearing on the governor's plan and the Medicaid expansion on Tuesday, April 16 at 5:30 pm. Count on fireworks at that event. I'll be curious to see which interest groups (if any) show up to defend the governor's plan. The Iowa Hospital Association continues to advocate strongly for expanding Medicaid as a boon for the Iowa economy as well as for Iowans' health. According to Des Moines Register reporter Jason Noble, some corporations are pushing for a compromise.

Representatives from hospitals and others in the medical field said they favored the funding mechanism included in the Democrats' preferred plan: an expansion of the existing Medicaid program that would draw down substantial new federal dollars.
But they also lauded the innovative changes to the way the state provides health care to the poor envisioned in the alternative plan Republican Gov. Terry Branstad rolled out last week.
An ideal compromise, they said, would accept federal dollars but move away from traditional Medicaid and toward care that aims to prevent serious illnesses and pays providers for keeping patients healthy.
"We could make major reforms to our Medicaid program in a way that is meaningful and saves costs and provides quality care to the patients," said Sabra Rosener, a lobbyist for the Iowa Health System. "But it's going to take some guts and it's going to take some real thought and getting past whether we take the federal money or not."

In my opinion, the controversy over expanding Medicaid will keep lawmakers working for weeks if not months after the 2013 legislative session was scheduled to end.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: On April 11, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald held press conferences in Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Davenport to discuss the competing health coverage plans. Here is the press release from the Iowa Democratic Party:

FITZGERALD: EXPANDING MEDICAID IS THE FINANCIALLY SMART MOVE FOR IOWA
Branstad Plan is a "bad financial deal" for Iowans
DES MOINES - State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald today gave his assessment on the competing health care plans that have been introduced in the legislature. After review of the Senate proposal and the Branstad plan, he has concluded that the only financially sound course is to do what the Democrats have proposed and expand Medicaid to 150,000 Iowans.
"I view it as my responsibility to not get caught up in the rhetoric and let Iowans know when they are getting a good or bad financial deal," said Treasurer Fitzgerald. "I have sat down read through the Senate and the Governor's health care plans. Governor Branstad's plan is a bad financial deal for Iowa, while expanding Medicaid is the financially smart move for the state of Iowa."
Fitzgerald cited a fiscal impact statement that found that the Senate plan spends only $4.7 million in taxpayer dollars in FY15, while the Governor's plan would spend more than $163 million. In addition, while the Governor has said he believes the Federal government would not fulfill its commitment under Medicaid expansion, the Governor actually asks the Federal government to spend an additional $90 million in FY15 to enact his plan - $667 million under his proposal while only $577 million under the Democratic plan.
"Today, I am asking Iowans to look at these numbers, think about the people affected, and contact Governor Branstad and leaders in the legislature," said the Treasurer. "Tell them that it is time to expand Medicaid. It makes financial sense. It makes common sense. And, it is the right thing to do."

New thread on the Iowa Congressional races

desmoinesdem — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 12:05:00 GMT

Dubuque business owner Rod Blum told the Marshall County Republican Central Committee this week that he plans to enter the GOP primary to represent the open first Congressional district. Blum finished a close second to Ben Lange in the 2012 IA-01 primary. Cedar Rapids business owner Steve Rathje was the first Republican to announce in IA-01. I haven't heard any news lately about other possible Republican candidates in the first district, like State Representative Walt Rogers or former Secretary of State Paul Pate.

Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer predicted on Sunday that the first Iowa woman elected governor or to Congress will be a Republican. If no Democratic woman steps up in IA-01, I believe Upmeyer will be proven right. I have heard from several independent sources that State Senator Liz Mathis is privately telling Democrats she won't run for Congress. Senate President Pam Jochum took herself out of the running last month. Former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate so far. State Senator Steve Sodders is talking with potential supporters about the race.

I haven't heard about any Republican planning to run against four-term Democrat Dave Loebsack in IA-02. For now, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee does not appear worried about holding this district.

According to the Des Moines rumor mill, former State Senator Staci Appel is considering a run for Congress in IA-03. Appel lives in Warren County and served one term in the Iowa Senate before losing to Republican Kent Sorenson in 2010. Mike Sherzan is currently the only declared Democratic challenger to ten-term Republican Tom Latham.

I haven't heard of any Democrats planning to challenge six-term incumbent Steve King in IA-04. I'm still confident King will not run for the U.S. Senate. But if King does leave the fourth district open, many Republicans are rumored to be thinking about that race, including Upmeyer and State Representative Chip Baltimore.

Any comments about next year's Congressional races in Iowa are welcome in this thread. A Congressional map is after the jump, along with the latest voter registration numbers in each district and Stuart Rothenberg's comments on why he does not consider Latham or King vulnerable in 2014.

Active voter registration totals in the Congressional districts as of March 2013, according to the Iowa Secretary of State's office:

IA-01: 165,428 Democrats, 137,943 Republicans, 193,674 no-party voters

IA-02: 174,351 Democrats, 140,684 Republicans, 185,578 no-party voters

IA-03: 159,575 Democrats, 165,595 Republicans, 157,163 no-party voters

IA-04: 131,552 Democrats, 180,956 Republicans, 178,651 no-party voters

Excerpt from Stuart Rothenberg commentary in Roll Call: Is the House in Play? A District-by-District Assessment.

Republican Rep. Tom Latham of Iowa defeated another incumbent, Democrat Leonard L. Boswell, running in territory very different from the Republican's district last decade. Because of that, Latham's 8-point victory - in a district that President Barack Obama won by more than 4 points - is a sign of strength, not vulnerability.
Similarly, Republican Rep. Steve King's 8-point victory in another Iowa district over a highly touted Democrat isn't a sign of vulnerability. King beat Christie Vilsack, wife of the former governor and current secretary of Agriculture, by almost the identical margin that Mitt Romney beat Obama in the district, suggesting a polarized electorate with a clear Republican bent.

Iowa House: Birthplace and graveyard for marriage and abortion bills

desmoinesdem — Mon, 11 Mar 2013 12:25:00 GMT

During 2011 and 2012, the Iowa Senate was our state's firewall against the social conservative agenda. The Republican-controlled Iowa House passed a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage, sweeping limits on abortion rights (twice), a "stand your ground" bill and a constitutional amendment that would invalidate virtually all restrictions on guns. All of those bills died in the Democratic-controlled state Senate.

Social issues have never been a priority for Iowa House leaders. They blocked a floor vote on a "personhood" bill in 2011 and steered clear of extremist crusades like impeaching Iowa Supreme Court justices and replacing gun permit laws with "constitutional carry." Still, I expected House Republicans to cover the usual bases during this year's legislative session.

Instead, almost every high-profile bill on so-called family values failed to win House committee approval and therefore died in the legislature's first funnel deadline last Friday. That includes some mainstream conservative efforts as well as freak show bills like ending no-fault divorce or barring county recorders from issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples.

Most amazing to me, House Republicans no longer have the votes to pass a constitutional amendment restricting marriage to one man and one woman.
Let's start with marriage. Two years ago, all 60 Iowa House Republicans went on record supporting a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage. Fifty-nine of them voted for the amendment on the House floor, and the one who was absent that day (Betty de Boef) was among the 56 co-sponsors.

On the opening day of this year's legislative session, House GOP leaders said nothing about protecting "traditional marriage" or the public's right to vote on the definition of marriage. The constitutional amendment on marriage, House Joint Resolution 11, attracted only 35 co-sponsors. That's just two-thirds of the House Republican caucus.

Here is the full list of co-sponsors in alphabetical order. I have indicated members of the House leadership team and put asterisks next to the names of those who voted for the amendment in 2011. The others were elected to the Iowa House for the first time in 2012.

Dwayne Alons*
Rob Bacon
Chip Baltimore*
Mark Brandenburg*
Mark Costello
Dave Deyoe*
Cecil Dolecheck*
Jack Drake*
Dean Fisher
Greg Forristall*
Joel Fry* (assistant majority leader)
Tedd Gassman
Pat Grassley*
Chris Hagenow* (House majority whip)
Greg Heartsill
Lee Hein*
Dan Huseman*
Ron Jorgensen*
Jarad Klein*
Kevin Koester*
John Landon
Linda Miller*
Dawn Pettengill*
Henry Rayhons*
Walt Rogers* (assistant majority leader)
Sandy Salmon
Tom Sands*
Jason Schultz*
Tom Shaw*
Larry Sheets
Chuck Soderberg*
Guy Vander Linden*
Ralph Watts*
Matt Windschitl* (assistant majority leader)
Gary Worthan*

The following 18 House Republicans declined to co-sponsor the marriage amendment. Asterisks note state representatives who voted for this constitutional amendment in 2011. The others were just elected to the Iowa House for the first time in 2012.

Clel Baudler*
Josh Byrnes*
Peter Cownie*
Julian Garrett*
Mary Ann Hanusa*
Dave Heaton*
Megan Hess
Jake Highfill
Bobby Kaufmann
Mark Lofgren*
David Maxwell
Brian Moore*
Steve Olson* (House speaker pro-tem)
Kraig Paulsen* (House speaker)
Jeff Smith* (assistant majority leader)
Quentin Stanerson
Rob Taylor
Linda Upmeyer* (House majority leader)

Note that the three top members of the leadership team all declined to co-sponsor the amendment.

To my knowledge, only one House Republican has publicly changed his stand on marriage: Josh Byrnes. Speaking to Mike Wiser last summer,

Byrnes said his views on same sex marriage - he does not oppose it - changed after he found out that a friend from high school married a same-sex partner and adopted children.
"He and his partner have been great parents, probably better than a lot of others out there," Byrnes said. "My phone hasn't been ringing off the hook about same-sex marriage. Look, I respect their opinions on it, but the constituents I talk to want to talk about education and the economy."

Some people who chose not to co-sponsor the amendment might vote for it anyway if necessary, but if just three of the 18 Republicans who declined to co-sponsor House Joint Resolution 11 quietly agree with Byrnes, then the amendment would fail on the House floor. (Republicans control 53 of the 100 Iowa House seats, and Dan Muhlbauer is the only Democrat still serving in the legislature who supported the marriage amendment in 2011.)

House Judiciary Committee Chair Chip Baltimore blamed timing for his committee's failure to take up the marriage amendment this year.

House Judiciary Chairman Chip Baltimore, R-Boone, said the bill was delivered too late to make it past this week's funnel deadline. Most bills not involving monetary issues have to make it through a subcommittee and committee by the end of the week to be considered "live." Baltimore, one of the bill's co-sponsors, faulted members of the Family Leader for holding onto the bill too long. "I signed on to this three weeks ago," he said. "I don't know why they sat on it this long."

That's a convenient excuse for Baltimore, but supporters filed this amendment on March 5. He could have rushed it through a subcommittee in time to have a full committee hearing by March 8. I suspect that he decided not to bring the bill up because he knew he might not have the votes to pass House Joint Resolution 11 in his committee.

The House Judiciary Committee contains twelve Republicans and nine Democrats. All of the Democrats oppose the marriage amendment. Three of the Republicans on Baltimore's committee did not co-sponsor the amendment (Julian Garrett, Dave Heaton, Bobby Kaufmann). In other words, Baltimore may not have been able to bring this legislation out of his committee even if he'd tried.

Alternatively, House leaders may have encouraged Baltimore to let the amendment die in committee so as to avoid an embarrassing failure to pass it on the House floor.

Chuck Hurley of the FAMiLY Leader organization put a brave face on defeat:

Chuck Hurley, Family Leader Foundation president, said the group didn't delay the bill intentionally but was trying to get more co-sponsors. Last session, more than 50 House members signed on to the legislation. "It was, admittedly, kind of late in the process," Hurley said. "The most likely outcome of that is that it will be brought up next year. The OK part of that is it's a two-biennium process (to get a Constitutional amendment), and so next year's fine. It's not going to slow things down any."

Nice try, Mr. Hurley. However, simple logic suggests that if a third of the House Republicans won't co-sponsor your bill now, and opinion polls show support for marriage equality growing every year, the FAMiLY Leader won't have better luck on this issue in 2014.

Other bills seeking to advance the conservative Christian agenda on marriage died in the funnel too. Last week many national blogs picked up the story about Iowa Republicans attempting to turn back the clock 40 years by ending no-fault divorce for couples with young children. State Representative Tedd Gassman's comments about his granddaughter at a subcommittee hearing were entertaining or embarrassing, depending on your point of view. But the "OMG, look at the crazy Iowa Republicans" blog posts ignored the fact that House File 338 had only seven co-sponsors (Gassman, Alons, Heartsill, Shaw, Schultz, Dolecheck, and Salmon). Gassman and Alons were able to pass this bill out of subcommittee, but Baltimore never took it up in the full House Judiciary Committee. Timing wasn't the issue here, because supporters introduced the no-fault divorce bill on February 27.

House File 444 stipulates that "the county registrar shall not grant a marriage license where both parties are of the same gender until such time as an amendment to the Constitution of the State of Iowa defining marriage as the legal union of one man and one woman is submitted to the electorate for ratification." This "blatantly unconstitutional" bill attracted only ten co-sponsors (Alons, Heartsill, Schultz, Sheets, Dolecheck, Fry, Gassman, Salmon, Koester, and Landon). Baltimore did not bring it up for a committee vote before the funnel deadline--which didn't stop the LGBT advocacy group One Iowa from trying to raise money off the effort.

Various bills that would have restricted abortions in Iowa also died in the House this year. Conservative blogger Shane Vander Hart posted a good summary at Caffeinated Thoughts.

Like last session the Republican-led Iowa House will not advance any pro-life legislation past funnel week. None. Nada. Zip. This would include the following bills, most of which would likely be dead on arrival in the Iowa Senate not that it really matters.
A personhood bill, House File 138, introduced by State Representative Tom Shaw (R-Laurens)
A personhood bill (doesn't penalize mothers), House File 171, introduced by State Representative Matt Windschitl (R-Missouri Valley)
A ban against webcam abortions, House File 173, introduced by Windschitl.
A personhood state constitutional amendment, House Joint Resolution 12, introduced by State Representative Dwayne Alons (R-Hull).
[...] I'm tired of the circular firing squad. There's plenty of blame to go around. The simple fact is none of these bills would make it past a floor vote even though Republicans have a 53 seat majority.

Just ten Republicans co-sponsored Shaw's personhood bill (Shaw, Alons, Heartsill, Schultz, Bacon, Sheets, Koester, Fry, and Salmon). Only Fry is on the House leadership team.

Just twelve Republicans co-sponsored Windschitl's personhood bill (Windschitl, Klein, Koester, Fry, Schultz, Huseman, Fisher, Brandenburg, Landon, Hanusa, Costello, and Salmon). Only Fry and Windschitl are on the House leadership team.

The bill seeking to ban "telemedicine" abortions offered in some Planned Parenthood clinics around Iowa attracted 15 co-sponsors (Windschitl, Rogers, Klein, Koester, Fry, Schultz, Huseman, Fisher, Sheets, Landon, Hanusa, Maxwell, Costello, Salmon, and Hagenow). Windschitl, Fry, Rogers, and Hagenow are on the House leadership team, but I would have expected much broader support for this bill in the House Republican caucus.

The personhood constitutional amendment attracted only six co-sponsors, none of them on the House leadership team (Alons, Landon, Heartsill, Salmon, Koester, and Pettengill).

House File 138 and House File 171 died in Baltimore's Judiciary Committee. House Joint Resolution 12 and House File 173 died in the Human Resources Committee, chaired by State Representative Linda Miller.

No one who remembers the failed attempt to bring personhood to the House floor in 2011 could be surprised that House leaders tanked this year's versions of the "wackadoodle" movement. Nevertheless, I'd have thought that House Republicans would pass the telemedicine bill, if only to set up a talking point against House and Senate Democrats for the 2014 elections. During the last legislative session, House Republican leaders were determined to pass a late-term abortion ban, and conservative groups like the FAMiLY Leader used that issue against some Iowa Senate Democrats during the 2012 campaign.

This year, pro-choice Iowans didn't need to depend on the state Senate to block new abortion restrictions. House Republican leaders took care of that for us.

I understand why conservatives like Vander Hart are so frustrated when a Republican-controlled legislative chamber won't act on principles articulated clearly and strongly in the Iowa GOP platform. I felt the same way when the Democratic-controlled legislature failed to act on many of my priorities during 2007 through 2010.

Share any relevant comments in this thread.

P.S.- Many Iowa politics-watchers expect Baltimore to run for Congress or another higher office someday. If he runs for the open U.S. Senate seat or in the fourth Congressional district after Representative Steve King moves on, Baltimore's failure to advance "family values" bills could become a problem in a Republican primary.

UPDATE: Your unintentional comedy for the day comes from the Iowa House speaker.

Republicans expressed frustration that measures they have long pushed, such as abortion restrictions and seeking a public vote on gay marriage, have again failed, but they said they weren't surprised.
"Those issues are extremely important to House Republicans ... but Senate Democrats are going to block those initiatives," said House Speaker Kevin Paulsen, R-Hiawatha.

Yes, so "extremely important to House Republicans" that none of those abortion bills attracted more than 15 co-sponsors, and Chuck Hurley and Bob Vander Plaats could only get 35 people to sign on to the marriage amendment.

LATE UPDATE: Kevin Hall reported on some "pro-life" infighting at The Iowa Republican blog:

A "pro-life" organization based in western Iowa is once again attacking Rep. Matt Windschitl (R-Missouri Valley). They blanketed his House district with literature Saturday [March 16], attacking Windschitl for sponsoring HF 173 ... What does this awful bill do? It bans web-cam abortions in Iowa. It saves lives and it is supported by every other pro-life organization in the state ...
They also attack Rep. Windschitl for not supporting "their" personhood bill. Apparently it's no longer Tom Shaw's bill, but it belongs to Iowa Pro-Life Action ... Of course, their propaganda never mentions that Rep. Windschitl has written and sponsored his own Life at Conception legislation ...
These people are shameless and will accomplish the exact opposite of what they claim to support. Their tactics will not save one life as they make enemies of the exact people they should be working with ... Makes. No. Sense.

First look at the potential Republican field in IA-01

desmoinesdem — Tue, 12 Feb 2013 17:30:28 GMT

No Republicans have announced firm plans to run for the open seat in Iowa's first Congressional district, but several people are definitely or rumored to be considering the race.

To evaluate who is best poised to win this Democratic-leaning district, it's helpful to look at where the votes are in a Republican primary as well as in a general election. After the jump I've posted a district map, the latest voter registration numbers for the 20 counties in IA-01, and a brief take on some of the possible Republican candidates.
IA-01 covers a large area in northeast Iowa but stretches south and west to include parts of central Iowa. The Cedar Rapids and Waterloo media markets cover much of the district, but Dubuque has its own media market, and viewers in the southwestern part of this district watch Des Moines-based television stations.

The voter registration totals come from the Iowa Secretary of State's website.

Active voter registration numbers as of February 2013

IA-01

County	Democrats	Republicans	no-party voters
Allamakee	2,235	4,309	3,145
Benton	4,756	5,067	7,590
Black Hawk	29,437	20,773	32,103
Bremer	3,894	5,085	7,441
Buchanan	3,918	3,164	6,475
Clayton	3,455	3,276	4,805
Delaware	2,593	3,847	4,912
Dubuque	25,070	14,810	22,475
Fayette	3,849	4,142	4,233
Howard	1,954	1,470	2,601
Iowa	2,866	3,748	4,909
Jackson	5,912	2,728	5,709
Jones	3,561	3,688	5,882
Linn	50,326	38,347	52,342
Marshall	7,842	7,846	9,494
Mitchell	1,858	2,561	2,794
Poweshiek	3,855	3,721	5,106
Tama	3,408	3,452	4,485
Winnishiek	3,635	4,509	5,232
Worth	1,578	1,817	2,072

total	166,002	138,360	193,805

Linn County, containing Cedar Rapids and its suburbs, has the largest population of the 20 counties in this district, but it doesn't dominate IA-01 the way some Congressional districts are concentrated around a single metro area. About 30 percent of the registered Democrats, 28 percent of the Republicans, and 27 percent of the no-party voters in IA-01 live in Linn County.

Based on the statewide statistical reports for the last two midterm elections in Iowa, we can expect turnout among no-party voters in 2014 to be way below presidential year levels. So while it's always important to do well among independents, base turnout may be more crucial to winning this Congressional seat in the next election.

IA-01 has a "partisan voting index" of about D+5, meaning that in the last two presidential elections, residents of this Congressional district voted about 5 points more Democratic than the national average. While the open seat is favorable ground for Democrats, it's far from a lost cause for Republicans. Representative Bruce Braley's "old" district was also D+5 and had a Democratic voter registration advantage of about 32,000 at the time of the November 2010 election, but Braley nearly lost to Ben Lange. If not for a couple of conservative third-party candidates on the ballot that year, Braley might not even be in a position to run for Tom Harkin's U.S. Senate seat.

But Braley is running for Harkin's seat, and as the likely Democratic nominee in the top-ticket race, he will need strong turnout in the counties where he is best known. The Iowa Democratic Party's GOTV will surely focus on the IA-01 counties, not just to hold the Congressional seat but also to have any chance in the statewide races.

For that reason, Republicans need to nominate a Congressional candidate who can appeal to voters in the major IA-01 metro areas.

IA-01 also contains several Iowa House districts that could be competitive in 2014, including the recent Democratic pickups in House districts 56, 66, and 68, the narrow Democratic hold in district 55, and relatively close Republican wins in districts 58 and 95. Both parties are likely to target some or all of those House races for GOTV in 2014. The Iowa House currently has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats.

The first Congressional district contained all or part of six competitive Iowa Senate races in 2012. Looking ahead to 2014, the hard-fought state Senate races are likely to be in either IA-02 (Senate districts 41 and 49, and perhaps districts 39 and 15, depending on retirements) or IA-04 (Senate districts 7 and 27, and maybe district 5 if Democrat Daryl Beall retires).

Apologies for burying the lede. Getting back to the potential Republican field in IA-01:

Ben Lange, the GOP challenger to Braley in 2010 and 2012, has not responded to my request for comment about a possible third run for Congress. Whether or not he runs, I expect Republicans to nominate someone else for the open seat. Lange didn't come close to beating Braley in the November election, though in fairness to him, Mitt Romney ran very poorly in northeast Iowa. UPDATE: Lange spoke to Erin Murphy of the Dubuque Telegraph-Herald last week.

"I'm just a normal guy working and living in Independence, Iowa," Lange said. "I have made no decision nor given any consideration to any political office down the road."

Rod Blum nearly won an upset victory in the 2012 GOP primary to represent IA-01, even though he was out-raised and outspent by Lange, the establishment favorite. I asked Blum whether he'll run again, and he sent me this response via e-mail:

Since Bruce's announcement I have had prominent Republicans reach out to me to encourage a run. But what is really surprising, I have had many young people and Independent voters encourage me on Facebook and Twitter to run, as they like my populist message of reforming Congress and working for jobs you can raise a family on. This will enable ALL hard working taxpayers to realize their dreams. People who have reached out to me seem to like the fact that my career has been as a job creator and not a career politician. Based upon this outpouring of support and my previous experience in building a grassroots campaign organization, YES I am "officially" contemplating a run.

Blum campaigned across the district during the first half of 2012. He edged out Lange in Linn County and won several other counties in the GOP primary. His best showing was in Dubuque, where he has lived and worked for decades. Blum seems to have appeal on the "tea party" wing, but my guess is that he would be at a disadvantage compared to a Republican with a strong base in Linn County.

Two prominent Linn County Republicans have been mentioned as possible Congressional candidates. Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen has represented a district in the Cedar Rapids suburbs for the last decade. He hasn't ruled out running for Congress but said "I'm focused on being speaker of the House right now." Paulsen may run into trouble during a Republican primary for being seen as insufficiently supportive of top conservative causes. He hasn't listed social issues among his legislative priorities. He doesn't appear to be eager to schedule another Iowa House vote on a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage. Paulsen helped block a House floor vote on "personhood" in 2011 and isn't excited about moving anti-abortion bills this year. I question whether Paulsen would want to give up his powerful position in the Iowa House to run in a GOP primary he may not win. He can't be on the ballot for both the Congressional race and his House district next June.

Paul Pate is also thinking about this race, according to Waterloo Courier journalist Jon Ericson, who lives in IA-01. Pate represented part of Linn County in the Iowa Senate for six years, then served one four-year term as Iowa Secretary of State during the 1990s. He was mayor of Cedar Rapids from 2002 through 2006. Since there's a good chance Democrats will nominate someone from Linn County, Pate strikes me as a potentially strong general-election candidate. He doesn't currently hold any elected office, so he wouldn't have to give up a job to run for Congress. The big question is whether he could be portrayed as too moderate to win a Republican primary.

State Representative Walt Rogers is thinking about this race. He said last week, "It definitely leans Democratic, but we had Jim Nussle from that area, so it isn't out of the question that a Republican could be there." Rogers represents Iowa House district 60, covering parts of Cedar Falls and Waterloo. He is a strong campaigner (nearly knocking off Democratic State Senator Jeff Danielson in 2008) and considered a rising star in the House Republican caucus. He's already one of the assistant majority leaders, and last year Speaker Paulsen "nominated Rogers to attend GOPAC's Emerging Leaders Class of 2012; only 15 freshman legislators nationwide are invited to attend." Like Paulsen, Rogers would have to give up his Iowa House seat to go for the Congressional nomination.

One other name crossed my radar as a possible Republican candidate: former State Senator Merlin Bartz. He narrowly lost the 2012 election to Democratic incumbent Mary Jo Wilhelm and recently took a job running Representative Steve King's Mason City office. Bartz's farm in Worth County is near the northwest tip of IA-01. Part of the area he used to represent in the Iowa Senate now lies in the fourth Congressional district, though, and he is not well-known in the major metro areas of the first district. When I spoke with Bartz by phone on February 9, he declined to comment on any future plans except to say, "The people that speculate don't know, and the people that know don't speculate." Bartz might also be a Republican contender in Iowa Senate district 27, although he would have to buy or rent another residence to run there in 2014.

Please share any relevant thoughts in the comments, and let me know which Republican candidates I've left out.

Iowa House speaker announces committee chairs

desmoinesdem — Mon, 26 Nov 2012 18:24:02 GMT

Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen has announced who will lead all the standing and appropriations committees for the 2013 legislative session. Below I've posted the full list of Republican House leaders and committee chairs. Where relevant, I've noted changes since last year.
Iowa House Republican leadership team

Speaker Kraig Paulsen was first elected in 2002 and just re-elected from House district 67, covering suburban and rural areas in Linn County.

Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer was first elected in 2002 and just re-elected in House district 54, covering all of Franklin County and parts of Cerro Gordo and Butler counties.

Speaker Pro Tem Steve Olson was first elected in 2002 and just re-elected in House district 97, including parts of Scott and Clinton counties. Last year's Speaker Pro Tem Jeff Kaufmann retired.

Majority Whip Chris Hagenow was first elected in 2008 and just re-elected (subject to a recount) in House district 43, covering some western suburbs of Des Moines. Last year's Majority Whip Erik Helland lost the 2012 Republican primary in Iowa House district 39.

Assistant majority leaders: Matt Windschitl was first elected in 2006 from district 56 and just re-elected in district 17, covering all of Ida and Monona Counties and parts of Harrison and Woodbury Counties. Windschitl was also an assistant majority leader in 2012.

Walt Rogers was first elected in 2010 and just re-elected in House district 60, covering parts of Waterloo and Black Hawk County.

Jeff Smith was first elected in 2010 and just re-elected in House district 1, covering all of Lyon and Osceola Counties and part of Dickinson County.

Joel Fry was first elected in 2010 and just re-elected in House district 27, covering Clarke, Decatur, and Wayne Counties, and part of Lucas County.

Standing committees

Administrative Rules Review

Dawn Pettengill was first elected in 2004 (as a Democrat) and switched to the Republican caucus in 2007. She was just re-elected in House district 75, covering Benton County and part of Iowa County.

Administration and Rules

Matt Windschitl (see above). Last year Renee Schulte chaired this committee, but she lost her re-election bid in House district 66.

Agriculture

Pat Grassley was first elected in 2006 and just re-elected in House district 50, covering Grundy County and parts of Hardin and Butler. Last year Annette Sweeney chaired this committee, but Grassley defeated her in the GOP primary to represent House district 50.

Appropriations

Chuck Soderberg was first elected in 2004 and just re-elected in House district 5, covering most of Plymouth and part of Woodbury Counties. Last year Scott Raecker chaired the Appropriations Committee, but he did not seek re-election. Last year's vice chair, Nick Wagner, was expected to take over this committee, but he lost his re-election bid in House district 68.

Administration and Regulation Appropriations Subcommittee: Ralph Watts was first elected in 2002 and just re-elected in House district 19, covering part of Dallas County and a small area in northern Polk County.

Agriculture and Natural Resources Appropriations Subcommittee: Jack Drake was first elected in 1992 and just re-elected in House district 21, covering all of Union and Adams Counties and parts of Cass and Pottawattamie Counties.

Economic Development Appropriations Subcommittee: Dave Deyoe was first elected in 2006 and just re-elected in House district 49, covering parts of Story and Hardin Counties. Last year Jason Schultz chaired this appropriations subcommittee.

Education Appropriations Subcommittee: Cecil Dolecheck was first elected in 1996 and just re-elected in House district 24, covering Ringgold, Taylor and Page Counties and part of Montgomery County.

Health and Human Services Appropriations Subcommittee: Dave Heaton was first elected in 1994 and just re-elected in House district 84, covering Henry County and parts of Lee, Washington and Jefferson Counties.

Justice System Appropriations Subcommittee: Gary Worthan was first elected in 2006 and just re-elected in House district 11, covering all of Buena Vista and Sac Counties.

Transportation, Infrastructure, and Capitals Appropriations: Dan Huseman was first elected in 1994 and just re-elected in House district 3, covering O'Brien and Cherokee Counties and parts of Sioux and Plymouth.

Commerce

Peter Cownie was first elected in 2008 and just re-elected in House district 42, covering parts of Des Moines and West Des Moines. Last year Chuck Soderberg chaired this committee.

Economic Growth

Mary Ann Hanusa was first elected in 2010 and just re-elected in House district 16, covering part of Council Bluffs. Last year Pat Grassley chaired this committee, and Hanusa served as vice chair.

Education

Ron Jorgensen was first elected in 2010 and just re-elected in House district 6, covering parts of Sioux City and Woodbury County. Last year Greg Forristall chaired this committee. He publicly criticized a bill that would have restricted early school opening dates, which House Speaker Paulsen supported.

Environmental Protection

Lee Hein was first elected in 2010 and just re-elected in House district 96, covering all of Delaware County and part of Jones County. Last year Steve Olson (just named House speaker pro tem) chaired this committee.

Ethics

Jeff Smith (see bio above) is the new chair of this committee, as well as an assistant majority leader. Last year Kevin Koester chaired this committee.

Government Oversight

Kevin Koester was first elected in 2008 and just re-elected in House district 38, covering a large part of northeast Polk County. Last year Chris Hagenow, now majority whip, chaired this committee.

Human Resources

Linda Miller was first elected in 2006 and just re-elected in House district 94, covering part of Bettendorf in Scott County.

Judiciary

Chip Baltimore was first elected in 2010 and just re-elected in House district 47, covering most of Boone County and all of Greene County. Last year Rich Anderson chaired this committee, but he retired.

Labor

Greg Forristall was first elected in 2006 and just re-elected in House district 22, covering most of Pottawattamie County outside Council Bluffs. Last year Lance Horbach chaired this committee, but he retired.

Local Government

Jason Schultz was first elected in 2008 and just re-elected in House district 18, covering all of Shelby County and parts of Crawford and Harrison Counties. Last year Nick Wagner chaired this committee, but he lost his re-election bid.

Natural Resources

Henry Rayhons was first elected to the Iowa House in 1996 and just re-elected in House district 8, covering Wright and Hancock Counties and part of Kossuth County.

Public Safety

Clel Baudler was first elected in 1998 and just re-elected in House district 20, covering all of Guthrie and Adair Counties and parts of Cass and Dallas Counties.

State Government

Guy Vander Linden was first elected in 2010 and just re-elected in House district 79, covering most of Mahaska County and the Pella area of Marion County. Last year Peter Cownie chaired this committee.

Transportation

Josh Byrnes was first elected in 2010 and just re-elected in House district 51, covering Worth, Mitchell, and Howard Counties, and part of Winneshiek. Last year Dave Tjepkes chaired this committee, but he retired.

Veterans Affairs

Dwayne Alons was first elected in 1998 and just re-elected in House district 4, covering most of Sioux County. Although he is one of the longest-serving Iowa House Republicans, Alons was shut out of the committee chairmanships in 2011 and 2012. Paulsen didn't even make him a vice chair of any committee before now. Last year Royd Chambers chaired the Veterans Affairs Committee, but he retired.

Ways and Means

Tom Sands was first elected in 2002 and just re-elected in House district 88, covering all of Louisa County and large parts of Des Moines and Muscatine Counties.

Iowa House district 43: Hagenow leads by 22 votes

desmoinesdem — Wed, 14 Nov 2012 23:55:00 GMT

The Polk County supervisors canvassed election results from Iowa House district 43 today and found Republican incumbent Chris Hagenow leading Susan Judkins by 22 votes: 8,741 to 8,719 with 17 write-ins. Judkins has until 5 pm on Monday, November 19 to request a recount. She would be crazy not to do so, in my opinion. Although recounts have rarely changed the outcome in Iowa legislative races, optical scanner machines do make mistakes when reading ballots, and Judkins trails by approximately 0.1 percent of all votes cast.

Iowa House Republicans are confident that Hagenow's lead will hold--so confident that they elected Hagenow House majority whip today. He replaces Erik Helland, who was defeated in this year's GOP primary to represent Iowa House district 39. The rest of the House leadership team includes Speaker Kraig Paulsen, Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer, Speaker Pro Tem Steve Olson, and assistant majority leaders Walt Rogers, Jeff Smith, Matt Windschitl, and Joel Fry. Republicans will have a 53-47 majority if Hagenow wins, and a 52-48 majority if a recount shows Judkins the winner.

Incidentally, the number of residents who voted for one of the candidates in House district 43 this year was substantially higher than the votes cast for Hagenow or his Democratic opponent in 2008. That year Hagenow defeated Jerry Sullivan in the old House district 59 by 8,240 votes to 8,147.

Iowa Senate district 30: Jeff Danielson and Matt Reisetter up on tv

desmoinesdem — Wed, 12 Sep 2012 16:54:21 GMT

Both Democratic incumbent Jeff Danielson and Republican challenger Matt Reisetter have started advertising on television in what is expected to be one of Iowa's most competitive legislative races: Iowa Senate district 30. Both videos and transcripts are after the jump, along with a district map and background on both candidates.
Iowa Senate district 30 covers Cedar Falls, parts of Waterloo, Hudson, and some rural areas in Black Hawk County.

As of September 2012, Iowa Senate district 30 contained 12,419 registered Democrats, 13,195 Republicans, and 16,711 no-party voters according to the Iowa Secretary of State's office (pdf). As John Deeth pointed out, by the registration numbers Jeff Danielson has the most difficult district to defend among all of the Democratic Senate incumbents on the ballot this year. (Redistricting was more unkind to Senators Jack Kibbie and Tom Rielly, but both retired rather than seek re-election in overwhelmingly Republican districts.)

Danielson won his first term in the Iowa Senate in 2004 by a margin of about 2,400 votes (pdf), but he barely won re-election in 2008, beating Republican Walt Rogers by just 22 votes after a recount. Democratic House candidates in both halves of Danielson's old district won by more comfortable margins in 2008. One of them, Doris Kelley, then lost to Rogers in November 2010.

Many Iowa politics-watchers expected a Danielson-Rogers rematch this year, but Rogers is seeking a second term in the Iowa House instead. He faces Waterloo City Council member Bob Greenwood in the new House district 60. In the other half of Danielson's Senate district, House district 59, Democratic State Representative Bob Kressig faces veterinarian and Cedar Falls school board member Jim Kenyon.

Danielson's campaign website includes this official bio.

Iowa State Senator
I work for you, plain and simple. Much of the manufactured drama of our day is designed to divide us, rather than unite us around a common purpose of prosperity for all. Being personally responsible, creating opportunity for all and having a deep sense of community are my guiding values as your Senator. Treating people decent, doing my homework and solving problems is my focus.
Firefighting, Family & Fun
I'm a Cedar Valley kid, through and through. That's why I mean it when I say the Cedar Valley is the best place in Iowa to live, work and play. I know, I've lived it. I was born in Waterloo and attended local schools in Cedar Falls and Waterloo.
After graduation from Central High in Waterloo in 1988, I joined the Navy. Kim and I first met at Edison Jr. High and later married, making us a Navy family.
I served from 1988 to 1994, completing deployments to the western Pacific and the Persian Gulf, earning the Navy Good Conduct, Armed Forces Expeditionary, Southwest Asia and National Defense Service medals. I left the Navy as a Petty Officer 2nd Class to come home with Kim and our son Brendan.
Back home, while working and raising a family, I utilized the G.I. Bill to earn an Associate of Arts from Hawkeye Community College, a Bachelors of Arts in Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude), a minor in Leadership Studies and a Masters of Public Policy from the University of Northern Iowa. Throughout my college career, I was a Golden Key International Honor Society member and earned UNI's Purple & Old Gold award for meritorious scholarship as the highest grade point (3.96) graduate in the Public Administration program.
Being able to serve my community as a fire fighter is a privilege I do not take for granted. I began working as a fire fighter for the City of Cedar Falls while completing my graduate degree at the University of Northern Iowa and continue to work as a fire fighter while serving in the Iowa Senate.
I returned to UNI in 2006, this time to teach future generations as Professor of Public Policy. My family and I are strong supporters and fans of UNI athletics and activities and try to attend as many games/events as possible. I try to continue serving our community by volunteering for several community boards, commissions & organizations, including:
* Iowa Department of Transportation Commission
* City of Waterloo's Planning, Programming and Zoning Commission
* Hawkeye chapter of the American Red Cross
* UNI Leadership Advisory Board
* Black Hawk Economic Development, Inc.
* Lifetime member of the Cedar Falls Amvets Post #49
* UNI Alumni Association
* Waterloo Exchange Club
* Cedar Falls Firefighters Association
* Iowa Firemen's Association
* Waterloo Elks Lodge #290
* International Association of Fire Fighters
Community/Wellness
As a fire fighter and State Senator, I feel a strong responsibility to serve the people of the Cedar Valley to the best of my ability and remain active in our community. I enjoy attending community events like Iowa Irish Fest, Hudson Days, Sturgis Falls, My Waterloo Days and countless other events that highlight what makes our communities great.
When I am not at the fire house, I also enjoy staying physically fit and active. I enjoy playing golf at any of the quality public golf courses around the Cedar Valley and taking my dog, Coco (a 100lb chocolate lab), for walks on one of the many trails or parks around the Cedar Valley. As a former Navy man, I also exercise and try to take responsibility for my own personal health and wellness. It is often difficult to find the time, but I do think it is important that we all take time to take care of ourselves physically, and have worked hard to ensure our community has the trails, work out facilities and other quality of life amenities.

Danielson has worked on a wide range of issues in the legislature. As chair of the Iowa Senate State Government Committee, he was the lead advocate of Iowa's 2010 campaign finance disclosure law, passed in response to the U.S. Supreme Court's Citizens United ruling. Danielson supports further restrictions on corporate political spending. He has also been the main proponent of legalizing online poker in Iowa, which hasn't gone beyond the study phase yet. During this year's legislative session, Danielson led efforts to secure state funding for the Iowa Food Bank Association, although Governor Terry Branstad vetoed that appropriation. The "ideas" page of Danielson's website contains general principles and priorities rather than specifics about what legislation Danielson would work on if he wins a third term.

Nonpartisanship and working together are the themes of Danielson's first campaign commercial of the year, which he announced yesterday. This 30-second spot is running on cable television in Waterloo/Cedar Falls.

My transcript:

Female voice-over: Senator Jeff Danielson believes that the Cedar Valley is stronger together. [Spot opens with campaign logo, Danielson Iowa Senate, shifting to photo of Danielson with urban backdrop.]
Stronger together means better jobs and careers, health care access, and quality education. [photo of Danielson, words on screen STRONGER TOGETHER, then BETTER JOBS; different photo of Danielson talking with woman, words on screen QUALITY HEALTH CARE, then WORLD CLASS EDUCATION]
It means a balanced budget that expects results and invests in our future. [photo of Danielson sitting at desk, flag in background, words on screen FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY, then INVESTING IN OUR FUTURE]
We are stronger together when we put our politics aside and work together, Republican, Democrats, and independents. [photo of Danielson with main street shops in background, words on screen STRONGER TOGETHER, then WORKING TOGETHER]
Jeff Danielson will lead the Cedar Valley by ensuring we are stronger together. [photo of Danielson taking the oath of office in the Senate chamber, words on screen LEADING THE CEDAR VALLEY, then STRONGER TOGETHER]
Paid for by Danielson for Senate. [Danielson campaign logo on screen again, also words STRONGER TOGETHER and website www.JeffDanielson.org ]

Nothing unusual about this commercial. Iowa lawmakers tend to avoid mentioning their party identification in their advertising. Quality education, health care access, and a balanced budget that invests in our future are themes in campaign materials for other Democratic incumbents and challengers.

To my knowledge, Danielson is the first incumbent Iowa legislator to start advertising on television this year.

Danielson's opponent, Matt Reisetter, is one of the most active and best-financed Iowa Republican challengers. He officially kicked off his campaign in February and became the top fundraiser among Iowa Senate Republican candidates during the first half of this year, pulling in more than $44,000 according to his July campaign finance report (pdf). Amazingly, Reisetter raised more than either Iowa Senate Minority Leader Jerry Behn, who has served in the legislature for 16 years, or Iowa Senate Minority Whip Brad Zaun, who represents wealthy and heavily Republican precincts in Urbandale. The Iowa Republican blogger Craig Robinson highly praised Reisetter's fundraising strategy. It's important for candidates not to be afraid to ask for money by mail, phone, or in person. Having worked closely with Bob Vander Plaats and Chuck Hurley at the Iowa Family Policy Center and its successor, the FAMiLY Leader, surely helped open the door for Reisetter to many Iowa Republican donors.

Danielson raised less than half as much as Reisetter during the first half of 2012 but went into the general election campaign with more than $83,000 cash on hand, nearly double Reisetter's total.

Reisetter's report listed quite a few $1,000 donors, but his largest campaign contribution was $10,000 from Foster Freiss, better known as the moneybags behind the super-PAC supporting Rick Santorum for president. (Danielson's campaign sent out a fundraising e-mail blast highlighting Freiss' support for Reisetter and Freiss' famous comment, "Back in my day, the gals put Aspirin between their knees.")

Reisetter was the only challenger to an Iowa Democratic legislator to be endorsed by the Iowa Industry PAC this year. Affiliated with the Iowa Association of Business and Industry, the Iowa Industry PAC typically endorses Republican incumbents and GOP candidates in open-seat races.

Judging from this page on the Iowa Senate Republicans website, the Iowa Farm Bureau appears to have left Reisetter off its long list of GOP "friends of agriculture" candidates. I would like to know the story behind that snub. At least one other Republican challenger to a Democratic Senate incumbent, Jane Jech, did receive the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation's endorsement. (Jech is running against one-term Senator Steve Sodders in Iowa Senate district 36.)

Reisetter doesn't play up his social conservative side on his campaign website (sophisticated by Iowa legislator standards). The issues page includes only brief blurbs about jobs, limited government, and education. Here's the candidate's official bio:

Matt Reisetter ("REE-ster"...rhymes with "Easter") was born at the former Schoitz Memorial Hospital on October 25, 1975 and raised in Cedar Falls, son of a plumber and a public school teacher turned at-home mom turned public school teacher again.
Among other things, Tom and Jan Reisetter raised Matt to trust God, take responsibility for his own actions, and work hard. They also modeled for their three kids the value of serving others through their involvement in the church and in the community. In particular, Matt credits much of his desire to serve as an elected office holder to his dad's example - Tom was elected to the Cedar Falls School Board on various occasions and served there for more than 20 years.
Growing up, Matt attended Valley Park Elementary School, Peet Junior High School, and in 1994, graduated from Cedar Falls High School, where he was active with various extra curricular activities earning, among other things, his Eagle Scout Award. He went on to attend the University of Northern Iowa where he earned a BA in Science in 1998. Early on in college, seemingly headed toward medical school, Matt thought he wanted to be a surgeon, but as his college years evolved, he discovered a deep passion for ministry and politics - "the two things, ironically," Matt jokes, "that you're not supposed to talk about with people!"
In 1999, after a year of graduate school in Minnesota, Matt moved back to Cedar Falls, became College Ministry Director at Nazareth Church, and married Jen, who he had fallen in love with at UNI. Their first son, Mason, came along in 2004, followed by Jillian in 2007, and a second daughter, Jentry, in 2010.
Matt ran for a seat in the Iowa House in 2006, then went on to work as Director of Development for The Family Leader and its predecessor organization, the Iowa Family Policy Center. Reisetter left The Family Leader at the beginning of 2012; he is now the owner of consulting firm SDG Solutions.
Matt, with the full support of Jen and the kids, is excited to jump into the 2012 campaign. His authenticity, his capacity to listen and learn, and his ability to connect with a wide variety of people will make him Senator that the people of western Black Hawk County can be proud of; a Senator who will represent all people, regardless of political persuasion, with dignity, integrity, honor, and respect.
Get signed up for email updates and/or get connected with the campaign on Facebook and Twitter, so you can stay tuned on the most recent developments as the the race unfolds!

Reisetter stressed fiscal conservatism in his opening television commercial, which he announced on Facebook September 7.

My transcript:

Reisetter: When I was a young man working on my Eagle Scout award, I was taught to always leave my campsite better than I found it. [Reisetter campaign logo, Matt Reisetter Iowa Senate on screen next to candidate, speaking directly to the camera in an outdoor setting]
Don't you think we need to do the same thing today? I'm Matt Reisetter. [close-up of Reisetter, still speaking to camera]
Our politicians can't keep spending money we don't have on things we don't need. [Footage of Reisetter sitting at a desk, signing some papers]
Send me to the Iowa Senate and I'll protect the family budget, for your children, grandchildren, and for my three kids. [Reisetter speaks to camera again, then footage of candidate with family at the kitchen table; words on screen Matt Reisetter STOP OUT OF CONTROL SPENDING, shifts to PROTECT THE FAMILY BUDGET, then footage of Reisetter in big armchair, reading book to kids]
Female voice-over: Matt Reisetter--a strong leader for Iowa's future. [footage of Reisetter and his wife holding hands, walking outdoors, then campaign logo appears on screen]

In terms of production values and overall message, the Reisetter ad is fine but nothing special, like Danielson's. I get tired of Republicans pretending that Iowa needs to be protected from "out of control spending," when we've had budget surpluses with full state reserve funds the last couple of years. However, that message probably resonates with many voters who wrongly believe that state legislators have been "spending money we don't have on things we don't need."

Note: even a hard-core Vander Plaats guy like Reisetter recognizes that running against abortion and gay marriage would be a loser strategy in a swing district. No doubt social conservative groups from Iowa and out of state will actively support Reisetter, though. By the same token, progressive groups backing Democratic legislative candidates are likely to target Senate district 30. The race could be the one that determines control of the Iowa Senate for the next two years. The Conservative Reader blogger Justin Arnold considers Senate district 30 one of five that could go either way. I don't agree entirely with Arnold's assessment of the competitive Senate races, but I do see district 30 as a tossup.

I expect Danielson and Reisetter to stay mostly positive in their campaign communication, letting other groups fund most of the attack ads and negative direct mail.

Strong GOTV by Barack Obama's campaign in Waterloo and Cedar Falls most likely saved Danielson's political career in 2008. The Iowa Democratic Party's jump on early voting is probably helping the incumbent again. A representative of the Black Hawk County Auditor's elections office told me today that as of September 11, the office had received 7,179 absentee ballot request forms: 5,064 from registered Democrats, 384 from Republicans, and 1,731 from no-party voters. I do not know what proportion of those absentee ballot requests came from voters living in Iowa Senate district 30.

Any relevant thoughts are welcome in this thread. For Bleeding Heartland users who enjoy social media, Reisetter is @mattforiowa on Twitter and on Facebook here. Danielson is @JeffDanielson on Twitter and on Facebook here.

First look at the Obama and Romney ground games in Iowa

desmoinesdem — Fri, 24 Aug 2012 11:45:00 GMT

At this time four years ago, Barack Obama's campaign had about 30 field offices up and running in Iowa, compared to six offices for Republican presidential candidate John McCain.

Obama's campaign has had eight Iowa field offices open this summer and is rolling out another 26 offices around Iowa this weekend. So far, Mitt Romney's campaign has ten Iowa field offices, in addition to the unified Republican headquarters in Urbandale.

After the jump, I compare the field office locations for each presidential campaign, grouped by Iowa Congressional district. Where relevant, I've also noted competitive Iowa House and Senate districts near the Obama and Romney field offices, although I doubt either presidential campaign will do much for down-ticket Democratic or Republican candidates.
IA-01

The first Congressional district race is a rematch between Democratic incumbent Bruce Braley and Republican challenger Ben Lange, who lost narrowly in 2010. Braley has lived in Waterloo (Black Hawk County) for most of his adult life, while Lange is based in Independence (Buchanan County).

Both the Obama and Romney campaigns have field offices in Dubuque (Dubuque County) and Cedar Rapids (Linn County). Democratic incumbents are unlikely to have trouble in the Dubuque-area Iowa House and Senate races. In Linn County, Senate district 34 should be an easy hold for Democrat Liz Mathis, and there are several potentially competitive Iowa House races, including House district 66 and House district 68. The district 66 race is a rematch between Republican Renee Schulte and the Democrat she defeated in 2008, Art Staed. In district 68 Republican Nick Wagner faces Daniel Lundby. Two of the new Obama field offices are in the Cedar Rapids area: one on the west side of Cedar Rapids (near House district 66), and one in the suburb of Marion (which is part of House district 68).

For some time, the Obama campaign has had a field office in Waterloo. Several competitive statehouse races are in the Waterloo/Cedar Falls metro area: Senate district 30, where Democratic incumbent Jeff Danielson faces Matt Reisetter, a close ally of Bob Vander Plaats; House district 59, where Democrat Bob Kressig faces James Kenyon; and House district 60, where Republican Walt Rogers faces Bob Greenwood.

A new Obama field office is opening in Grinnell (Poweshiek County). During the last decade, this relatively liberal college town helped elect former Democratic State Representative Eric Palmer and retiring Democratic State Senator Tom Rielly. Now Poweshiek County is part of Iowa Senate district 38, where Republican incumbent Tim Kapucian faces Shelley Parbs, and the open House district 76, where Democrat Rachel Bly faces Republican David Maxwell. Representative Braley grew up in the small town of Brooklyn and may have a strong GOTV push for his Congressional campaign in this county.

A new Obama field office is opening in Independence (Buchanan County), where Republican Congressional challenger Lange lives and practices law. Lange's campaign is headquartered in Cedar Rapids, however.

A new Obama field office is opening in Cresco (Howard County), in the northeast part of the state. This county is part of Iowa Senate district 26, expected to be one of the marquee statehouse races. The clash of two incumbents features Democrat Mary Jo Wilhelm and Republican Merlin "Build My Fence" Bartz.

A new Obama field office is opening in Maquoketa (Jackson County). Former Democratic State Representative Tom Schueller is favored to win his Iowa House seat back from GOP incumbent Brian Moore in House district 58, which includes all of Jackson County.

UPDATE: There is also a Marshall County Democratic Party office in Marshalltown, which is handling GOTV for candidates up and down the ticket. Marshall County is part of Iowa Senate district 36, where Democratic incumbent Steve Sodders faces Jane Jech.

IA-02

The second Congressional district race pits Democratic incumbent Dave Loebsack against Republican John Archer. Loebsack relocated to Iowa City (Johnson County) last year after redistricting put his Linn County home in IA-01. Archer lives in the Quad Cities area (Scott County). Loebsack has not represented that county before.

Both the Obama and Romney campaigns have field offices in Iowa City, Davenport (Scott County), and Burlington (Des Moines County). The state House and Senate seats in the Burlington and Iowa City areas should be safe for Democrats, but part of Johnson County is in the open House district 73, where there is no clear favorite between Republican Bobby Kaufmann (son of retiring GOP House Speaker Pro-Tem Jeff Kaufmann) and Democrat Dick Schwab.

Several competitive statehouse races are the Quad Cities area, including Senate district 46, where Republican incumbent Shawn Hamerlinck faces Chris Brase, House district 93, where Democratic incumbent Phyllis Thede faces Mark Nelson, and House district 92, where Republican incumbent Ross Paustian faces former State Senator Frank Wood.

Six of the new Obama field offices opening this weekend are in IA-02, including one in Coralville, a rapidly-growing suburb of Iowa City (Johnson County). Democratic Iowa House incumbent Dave Jacoby is unopposed here.

An Obama field office is opening in Washington (Washington County). There aren't competitive statehouse races here. Republican Sandy Greiner represents this area in the Iowa Senate but is not up for re-election this year. Republican House incumbent Jarad Klein is unopposed in the new district 78.

An Obama field office is opening in Newton (Jasper County). For the last decade, this county was part of IA-03. The Iowa Senate seat that includes most of Jasper County is not on the ballot in 2012. The Newton area is part of House district 15, where Democratic incumbent Dan Kelley has a rematch against his 2010 opponent Gabe Swersie.

An Obama field office is opening in Fort Madison (Lee County). Senate district 42 is open but should be a Democratic hold for Rich Taylor; this part of the state has a Democratic voter registration advantage and a strong organized labor presence.

An Obama field office is opening in Fairfield (Jefferson County). The Iowa Senate seat that covers this area is not on the ballot in 2012. Fairfield is part of House district 82, where Democratic incumbent Curt Hanson faces James Johnson, who nearly defeated a different Democratic State Representative in 2010.

An Obama field office is opening in Oskaloosa (Mahaska County). Republicans are favored to win the local House and Senate races.

It's worth nothing that the Obama campaign does not have an office in Ottumwa (Wapello County). For decades, unionized workers and their relatives produced a lot of votes for Iowa Democrats in the Ottumwa area. Democratic turnout was poor here in 2010, which partly explains why State Senator Keith Kreiman lost by a dozen votes in what had been considered a safe seat. Both Fairfield and Oskaloosa are about a 30-minute drive from Ottumwa. UPDATE: The Iowa Democratic Party's website lists a coordinated GOTV headquarters in Ottumwa.

There is also a Clinton County Democratic Party office in Clinton, which is running GOTV for candidates up and down the ticket. Clinton county is part of the open Senate district 49, where Republican Andrew Naeve faces Democrat Rita Hart.

The Muscatine County Democratic Party has a similar campaign headquarters open in Muscatine. Part of that county is in Senate district 46 and House district 91, where Republican incumbent Mark Lofgren faces John Dabeet. The rest of the county is in House district 88, where Republican Ways and Means Committee Chair Tom Sands faces Sara Sedlacek.

IA-03

In the third Congressional district, Representative Leonard Boswell needs strong Democratic turnout, especially in Polk County, to have a chance against Republican incumbent Tom Latham. Boswell moved his official residence to Des Moines a decade ago because of redistricting. Latham moved from Ames in IA-04 to the Polk County suburbs last year because of redistricting.

Obama's statewide headquarters are on the east side of Des Moines, and four of the 26 new offices opening this weekend are in the Des Moines metro area: in the capital city on Merle Hay Road, in the northern suburb of Ankeny, in the eastern suburb of Altoona, and in the western suburb of Waukee.

The unified Republican victory office is in Urbandale, a suburb of on the west side of Des Moines, and Romney has another office in Waukee.

Polk County doesn't typically have a lot of competitive statehouse races, but redistricting has created more than usual this year. Altoona is part of the open House district 30, where Democrat Joe Riding faces Republican Jim Carley. Waukee is part of Iowa Senate district 22, where incumbent Republican Pat Ward faces Desmund Adams. The eastern half of Senate district 22 is House district 43, where Republican incumbent Chris Hagenow faces Susan Judkins Josten. Urbandale is part of House district 40, an open-seat race pitting Democrat John Forbes against Republican Mike Brown. Part of Ankeny is in House district 38, where incumbent Republican Kevin Koester faces John Phoenix. Johnston and Grimes are in the open House district 39, featuring two 20-something candidates: Democrat Kelsey Clark and Republican Jake Highfill.

Both Romney and Obama have field offices in Council Bluffs (Pottawattamie County). Although Republicans failed to field a strong challenger against Iowa Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, a lot of outside money will flow into Senate district 8 because Gronstal has done so much to block the GOP policy agenda. Democrats are looking for a potential pickup in House district 15, where Republican incumbent Mark Brandenburg faces George Yaple. Both the Latham and Boswell campaigns are likely to have a strong GOTV push in Council Bluffs, the largest city in IA-03 outside Polk County.

Four more new Obama field offices are in this Congressional district: Creston (Union County), Perry (Dallas County), Winterset (Madison County), and Indianola (Warren County). Republican statehouse incumbents are favored in most of those areas. There will be a competitive race in the open House district 26 between Democrat Scott Ourth and Republican Steve McCoy. The district covers Indianola and most of Warren County. John Deeth notes that Ourth had a 100 to 1 cash-on-hand advantage according to the latest campaign finance reports. But social conservative activists in Warren County turned out a heck of a lot of votes for Bob Vander Plaats in the 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary and delivered victory in the local Iowa House and Senate districts the same year.

IA-04

The fourth Congressional district spans 39 counties, many of which are new to Republican incumbent Steve King of Kiron (Sac County). Democratic challenger Christie Vilsack grew up in southeast Iowa and lived in the Des Moines area for more than a decade but relocated to Ames (Story County) because of this campaign.

Both the Obama and Romney campaigns have field offices in Sioux City (Woodbury County). Two competitive Iowa House races are in this county. House district 13 is a battle of two first-term House incumbents: Democrat Chris Hall and Republican Jeremy Taylor. In the open House district 14, 2010 Democratic candidate David Dawson faces Republican Greg Grupp.

Romney has a field office in Mason City (Cerro Gordo County). I am surprised that the Obama campaign doesn't have a presence here, but Mason City is not on the list of office openings this weekend. UPDATE: Vilsack's campaign has staff in Mason City, and the Cerro Gordo Democrats have a coordinated campaign office there.

Romney has a field office in Ames. I don't know why the site of Iowa State University isn't on the Obama campaign's list, because college towns were strong vote-producing areas for the president in 2008. UPDATE: Vilsack's campaign is headquartered in Ames, and the Story County Democrats office there is running GOTV for all candidates.

Five of the new Obama field offices are in IA-04: Algona (Kossuth County), Spencer (Clay County), Denison (Crawford County), Iowa Falls (Hardin County), and Boone (Boone County). Competitive statehouse races are thin on the ground in IA-04, but House district 47, containing most of Boone County, will be a hard-fought rematch between Republican State Representative Chip Baltimore and the Democrat he beat by a couple dozen votes in 2010, Donovan Olson.

UPDATE: The Webster County Democrats have a field office in Fort Dodge that is running GOTV in the area.

Medicaid abortion funding ban a bridge too far for Branstad administration

desmoinesdem — Mon, 06 Aug 2012 14:10:00 GMT

Opposing all government funding for abortion is settled dogma among Iowa Republican activists and elected officials. For two years in a row, Senate Democrats have blocked attempts to write new restrictions on Medicaid abortion coverage into the budget for the state Department of Human Services. Now DHS Director Chuck Palmer has signaled that taking control of the upper chamber may not give Republicans the power to restrict the choices of low-income women.

Palmer's action puts Governor Terry Branstad in an awkward position, and a legislature completely under GOP control could create a political nightmare for Branstad, a proud "pro-lifer" throughout his career.
During the 2012 fiscal year, Medicaid paid for 22 abortions in Iowa: "15 for severe fetal anomalies, two for rape and five to save the life of the mother, according to the DHS." In June, 41 Iowa House Republicans led by State Representative Dawn Pettengill filed a petition for emergency rulemaking with the DHS, seeking to halt all Medicaid abortion funding, or at least the payments for abortion in cases of fetal anomalies.

Palmer informed the lawmakers on August 3 that he denied their petition. Excerpt from his cover letter to Pettengill:

The elimination of Medical Assistance (Medicaid) or IowaCare payment for abortions in cases of rape or incest would violate federal funding requirements under the federal Medicaid program. Eliminating Iowa Medicaid payment for abortions in cases of rape or incest would jeopardize all federal Medicaid funding Iowa receives, approximately 2.1 billion dollars annually. This funding is important to the delivery of vital care to vulnerable Iowans.
The 2011 appropriations language provided funds to the Department of Human Services for Medicaid "consistent with options under federal law and regulations." Federal law allows for state Medicaid programs to reimburse for abortions of fetuses for fetal anomalies without federal funding. The Department, as required by 2011 appropriations, is requiring the physician certifications in the case of abortions covered based on fetal anomalies, absent a medical emergency. However, there is no clear mandate in the 2011 appropriations to make any further change to the long-standing Iowa policy regarding fetal anomaly abortions. Any such change should be based on a clear directive in legislation.

Palmer explained his decision in an eight-page document citing many provisions in state and federal law as well as federal court rulings relating to Medicaid funding for abortion. Excerpt from page 7:

The rule allowing payment for abortion when the fetus is physically deformed, mentally deficient, or afflicted with a congenital abnormality has been used sparingly. Fifteen abortions were paid for on that basis during fiscal year 2011-2012. These included abortions due to fetal anencephaly (absence of a large portion of the brain or skull) and acrania (absence of the skull). As discussed above, the 2011 appropriations language regarding abortion requires only that in the absence of a medical emergency, a physician providing an abortion must certify that the woman has been given the opportunity to view an ultrasound image of the fetus and has been provided information about the options relative to pregnancy. [...] Further, the 2011 appropriations provided funds to the Department for Medical Assistance "consistent with options under federal law and regulations." [...] Those options include the option to cover abortion in the case of serious fetal anomalies (in addition to rape and incest), with state-only funding. Continued state-only funding for such abortions was included in the Department's budget proposals for 2011-2012 and 2012-2013, and the Department's appropriation was never adjusted to reflect a change. The Department is requiring the physician certifications mandated by the 2011 appropriations in the case of abortions covered based on fetal anomalies, absent a medical emergency. But there is no clear mandate in the 2011 appropriations to make any further change to the long-standing Iowa policy regarding such abortions. Any such change should be based on clear legislation.

Palmer also noted that the DHS added language about a woman's opportunity to view an ultrasound to its "Certification Regarding Abortion" form that is "a condition of payment for an abortion." For that reason, he does not consider it necessary to change the DHS administrative rules in order "to comply with the requirements of the 2011 appropriations."

Pettengill had claimed only $4 million in Medicaid funding for Iowa was at risk if the state DHS changed its rules. She criticized Palmer when commenting to the Des Moines Register last Friday.

"As a member of the Administrative Rules Review committee and a legislator, I'm disappointed Director Palmer has decided not to implement the law and enforce legislative intent," she wrote in an e-mail. "As much as I disagree with the logic that brought the director to that conclusion, he knows the tools we have to force (the Department of Human Services) to obey law are extremely limited. As a Rules (Committee) member, I have emptied my toolbox and done everything I could to make the rules match our intent."

In contrast, Iowa House Democratic Leader Kevin McCarthy gave Branstad full credit for Palmer's decision.

I'm pleased Governor Branstad put the brakes on this latest attempt by House Republicans to deny health care options to women who are victims of rape or incest. From banning birth control such as the pill to reducing cancer screenings, this effort by Republicans was just the latest attempt in their relentless attack on women's health care. It's time for Republicans to put aside their divisive social agenda and focus on growing our economy and putting Iowans back to work.

I am seeking comment from Branstad's office regarding the governor's position on changing Medicaid abortion funding rules. I will update this post as needed. Branstad told the Cedar Rapids Gazette last month that he believed Palmer would "do the right thing."

"I haven't had a chance to talk to him in detail," Branstad said Monday, referring to Iowa DHS director Chuck Palmer, "but I have a lot of confidence in him. He's a problem-solver. He has empathy for the people who receive human services and he has good fiscal management skills."

For many in the pro-life crowd, "do the right thing" would mean "make sure taxpayers don't have to cover any abortions for indigent women facing terrible circumstances." That's the opposite of how I read Branstad's comment.

To my ear, "problem-solver" translates to "makes problems go away rather than amplifying them."

By the same token, "has empathy for the people who receive human services" translates to "won't put Medicaid funding for hundreds of thousands of Iowans at risk."

Finally, "good fiscal management skills" equals "won't blow a $2 billion hole in Iowa's budget."

The American Civil Liberties Union of Iowa and Planned Parenthood of the Heartland objected to the House Republicans' petition for rulemaking and welcomed Palmer's decision last week. Who'd have thought the Branstad administration would ever be congratulated by Planned Parenthood and the ACLU? I'm sure the governor doesn't appreciate their praise.

I expect to see Republican pressure on Branstad to replace Palmer as head of the state's largest department, but I don't see Branstad ditching Palmer over this issue. He trusted Palmer to do this job during the 1990s and wanted him back for his fifth term as governor.

Another land mine potentially awaits Branstad next year. Not only are Iowa House Republicans against Medicaid funds for abortion, the 24 current Iowa Senate Republicans voted unanimously in April to eliminate all Medicaid funding for abortion. Consequently, if the GOP wins control of the Iowa Senate in November and holds the House, both chambers of the legislature will pass more restrictive language on Medicaid abortion funding in 2013. That would put Branstad in a no-win situation: veto the language and spark a Republican civil war, or approve the language and risk losing all of Iowa's federal Medicaid funding.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread.

P.S.- Here is the full list of Iowa House Republicans who joined Pettengill's petition for rulemaking: Dwayne Alons, Rich Anderson, Mark Brandenburg, Royd Chambers, Betty De Boef, Cecil Dolecheck, Jack Drake, Greg Forristall, Joel Fry, Julian Garrett, Pat Grassley, Chris Hagenow, Bob Hager, Mary Ann Hanusa, Lee Hein, Erik Helland, Lance Horbach, Stew Iverson, Ron Jorgensen, Jarad Klein, Kevin Koester, Glen Massie, Linda Miller, Ross Paustian, Dan Rasmussen, Walt Rogers, Tom Sands, Jason Schultz, Tom Shaw, Jeff Smith, Chuck Soderberg, Annette Sweeney, Jeremy Taylor, Dave Tjepkes, Linda Upmeyer, Guy Vander Linden, Ralph Watts, Matt Windschitl, and Gary Worthan.

The following 18 Iowa House Republicans did not join Pettengill's petition: Rich Arnold, Chip Baltimore, Clel Baudler, Josh Byrnes, Peter Cownie, Dave Deyoe, Dave Heaton, Jeff Kaufmann, Mark Lofgren, Brian Moore, Steve Olson, Kraig Paulsen, Kim Pearson, Scott Raecker, Henry Rayhons, Renee Schulte, James Van Engelenhoven, and Nick Wagner. Former State Representative Steve Lukan had just retired from the Iowa House to accept a position in the Branstad administration.

The House Republican leadership was split, with Majority Leader Upmeyer, Majority Whip Helland, and Assistant Majority Leader Windschitl joining Pettengill's petition while Speaker Paulsen, Speaker Pro-Tem Kaufmann, and Assistant Majority Leaders Deyoe and Schulte stayed on the sidelines.

LATE UPDATE: Here is the joint statement Planned Parenthood of the Heartland and the ACLU of Iowa released on August 2.

Des Moines, IA. - Planned Parenthood of the Heartland and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of Iowa applaud the state Department of Human Services (DHS) for denying an emergency rule-making petition recently filed by a group of Republican lawmakers.
The petition demanded the state change its rules to immediately cease reimbursing abortions for rape and incest victims through Medicaid. DHS denied the petition as it would violate federal funding requirements and jeopardize more than $2 billion dollars in federal Medicaid funds to the state of Iowa.
"This petition would have put the health of Iowa women and their families at risk," said Planned Parenthood of the Heartland President and CEO Jill June. "Thousands of Iowans rely on the Medicaid program every year. This decision ensures that those who need access to vital health care can get the services they need at a price they can afford."
DHS concluded that no rule change will be made.
"DHS made the right decision," said ACLU of Iowa Legislative Director Rita Bettis. "The petition asked for a procedural run-around that was improper under Iowa law. It sought to withhold abortion coverage from a qualified woman. Only a woman facing those extremely difficult circumstances--not politicians--knows what decision is right for her."
"A woman who has been through the violent trauma of a rape of incest should not be re-victimized by our political system. We know that these crimes do not discriminate based upon a woman's financial situation, and because of this decision by the DHS our laws won't either," said June.

IA-01: NRCC tips hat to Ben Lange

desmoinesdem — Thu, 17 May 2012 16:14:33 GMT

Not put off by picking the wrong candidates in two Iowa Republican primaries in 2010, the National Republican Congressional Committee has elevated Ben Lange to "contender" status in Iowa's first district, while taking a neutral posture in the second district primary.
Lange was one of several Republicans to challenge Representative Bruce Braley in IA-01 last cycle, but he didn't get recognition from the NRCC until after the primary. Instead, the political arm of the House Republican caucus favored Jim Gibbons in IA-03 and Rob Gettemy in IA-02. Gibbons finished a distant second to State Senator Brad Zaun in the race to challenge Leonard Boswell, while Gettemy finished last among the four Republicans running against Dave Loebsack.

The NRCC's "young guns" program for challengers in Democratic-held districts has three tiers. "Young guns" receive the most financial and organizational support from the NRCC, followed by "contenders." The lowest tier candidates are "on the radar." The NRCC put Lange "on the radar" soon after he made his candidacy official. Today Lange's campaign announced his upward move in this press release:

NRCC Elevates Ben Lange in Young Guns Program
Only Candidate to Meet Rigorous Organizational Goals in IA-01
INDEPENDENCE, IA - The National Republican Congressional Committee today elevated U.S. congressional candidate Ben Lange for the second time this year as part of the NRCC Young Guns program due to his campaign's ability to meet rigorous organizational benchmarks.
The Young Guns program is an avenue through which a Republican congressional candidate may receive additional national assistance in defeating the divisive and extreme agenda of Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) in Iowa's 1st district and other districts across the country.
"We are looking forward to working with Ben Lange, who has already proven himself by meeting rigorous benchmarks in the 'Young Guns' program that will position his campaign for victory," said NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions (R-TX). "Ben Lange's dedication and experience enables him to advocate effectively for pro-growth policies and fight the failed status quo in Washington. This will stand in stark contrast to the Obama-Pelosi record of spending, borrowing and taxing that Iowa families and small businesses know has failed."
Lange recently raised 11 times the amount of resources as his closest competitor in IA-01 and is the only candidate to have united a broad base of support across the 1st district. Lange has earned the support of key Tea Party activists, College Republican leaders, state senators and representatives, former congressional nominee and current State Senator Brad Zaun, among many others.
About
Ben Lange is a faithful husband and loving dad to three little girls. He grew up in a working class family in Quasqueton, IA. He was the first in his family to earn a four-year college degree. Ben was the 2010 Republican Nominee for U.S. Congress in Iowa's 1st congressional district. After winning his Primary by 30 points, he united the Republican Party and, despite being outspent by Braley's campaign committee nearly 5 to 1, Ben held Braley to less than 50% of the total vote and fell short by a mere 1.95%. Today, Ben has established one of the state's best organizational and financial infrastructures. He has recruited a Steering Committee consisting of a broad coalition of activists, officials, and community leaders to help guide his candidacy, and he has earned the support of Republican state senators and representatives throughout the new 1st district.

Click here for more details on the fundraising by Lange and his primary rival Rod Blum.

I wonder why Brad Zaun got involved in the IA-01 primary. It's nowhere near his Iowa Senate district in Urbandale. Several other Republican legislators are backing Lange for Congress, but they live in the district where he's running. Yesterday Lange announced endorsements from the following "Tea Partiers and 9.12ers":

- Jenn Jones, Jones County 9.12 group
- Jim Conklin, Linn County Tea Party & Iowa Conservative Union
- Tom Boeckmann, Tea Party Conservative from Benton County
- Thomas Hansen, NE Iowa Tea Party Coordinator
- Walt Tegtmeier, Oelwein Tea Party
- Charlie Albrecht, Bremer County Tea Party
- Les Feldman, Dubuque County Tea Party

9.12 groups were inspired by the conservative media personality Glenn Beck.

Blum has much less establishment support than Lange, but he has the backing of many conservative activists, including the Liberty Iowa PAC, affiliated with some Ron Paul supporters. Cedar Rapids Tea Party Founder Tim Pugh came out for Blum last week, and Dubuque Tea Party co-founder Michael Heeren announced his support for Blum yesterday. Bleeding Heartland covered Blum's previous endorsements here.

Blum and Lange are scheduled to debate each other on May 21 at 7 pm in Cedar Rapids. The two candidates appeared at a forum in Grinnell on May 12.

Lange has purchased radio advertising in IA-01 but hasn't released any television commercials yet. To my knowledge, Blum has not run any paid advertising.

In Iowa's second district, where two candidates are challenging Loebsack, the NRCC is hedging its bets. Both John Archer and Dan Dolan made the "on the radar" list in February, and both got bumped up to "contender" this week. Archer and Dolan have raised comparable amounts of money for their campaigns. Archer was the first to pay for radio advertising and has run multiple television commercials on Fox News cable. Dolan made a limited tv buy and has sent out district-wide direct mail. Dolan's campaign launched a 90-second web ad this week, but I doubt he can afford to run a spot of that length on television before the primary.

Any comments about Iowa's first or second Congressional district races are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: On May 18, Lange's campaign sent out this press release:

State Representative Renee Schulte Endorses Lange
"Iowans are hungry for a fresh, unifying figure"
INDEPENDENCE, IA - State Representative Renee Schulte today endorsed Ben Lange as the unity candidate for U.S. Congress in Iowa's 1st District. Schulte represents House District 37 which covers the Cedar Rapids area, the most populous city in the district.
"After careful consideration, I'm excited to endorse Ben Lange for Congress," said Schulte. "Iowans are hungry for a fresh, unifying figure to represent them in Congress and Ben Lange has demonstrated an extraordinary ability to unite a broad coalition of support behind his candidacy. If we, as a party, are to be successful, we must reject the destructive politics of anger and division in favor of a more productive politics of honesty, persuasion, and unity. There is one candidate in this race who fully embodies these values and I'm happy to give him my support."
Lange issued the following statement: "Renee is a devoted and tireless public servant who shares my interest in building coalitions to solve the most critical problems facing Iowans. Coalition-building will be critical to solving the defining problem of our age -- our national debt crisis and our nation's overall economic well-being -- and I'm proud to have Renee on our team."
Schulte joins nine other state legislators on Ben Lange's steering committee:
State Senator Tim Kapucian (Benton)
State Representative Bob Hager (Allamakee)
State Representative Dawn Pettengill (Benton)
State Representative Walt Rogers (Black Hawk)
State Representative Steven Lukan (Dubuque)
State Representative Brian Moore (Jackson)
State Representative Lee Hein (Jones)
State Representative Josh Byrnes (Mitchell)
State Representative Lance Horbach (Tama)

Horbach and Lukan are retiring this year, but the rest of the Lange endorsers are up for re-election.

Schulte is running in the new Iowa House district 66 against the Democrat she defeated in 2008, Art Staed.

Kapucian will face the winner of a three-way Democratic primary in the new Senate district 38.

Pettengill will face Sandra Cronbaugh in the new House district 75.

Hager will face Patti Ruff in the new House district 56.

Rogers will face Bob Greenwood in the new House district 60.

Moore will face the Democrat he defeated in 2010, Tom Schueller, in the new House district 58.

Hein has no Democratic opponent in the new House district 96.

Byrnes will face Eric Hungerford in the new House district 51.

A new job for Matt Strawn

desmoinesdem — Wed, 02 May 2012 00:15:25 GMT

Matt Strawn stepped down early from his job as chair of the Republican Party of Iowa, but he will be immersed in this November's down-ticket elections as Iowa chair of the 527 group GOPAC.
Then Delaware Governor Pete du Pont created GOPAC in the late 1970s to support GOP candidates for state and local offices. Newt Gingrich raised the organization's profile during the 1980s. Many Republicans, including Rick Santorum, have credited GOPAC's candidate training with helping them win seats in Congress and state legislatures. The GOPAC tapes created under Gingrich's leadership have been added to the Library of Congress National Recording Registry because of their role in "shaping political discourse." The 527 group raised and spent more than $9 million during the last presidential election year.

Current GOPAC Chair Frank Donatelli announced today that his group tapped Strawn in recognition of his "monumental work in rebuilding and revitalizing the Iowa GOP."

Many of GOPAC's activities in Iowa will build on Strawn's experience as its Iowa team will be heavily organizational in nature, including, but not limited to, candidate training, voter registration and issue identification efforts aimed at increasing the Republican ranks in the Iowa House and Senate and across Iowa's county-level offices, Donatelli said.
Strawn indicated that a personal focus will be outreach to groups of Iowans who may not necessarily consider themselves Republicans.

Iowa is one of just seven states GOPAC leaders will focus on this year.

The group is targeting Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania (house chambers in play) and in Iowa and Nevada (senate chambers in play), a spokeswoman said today. And it's supporting Republicans in the Wisconsin recall election in June. [...]
GOPAC launched a voter registration drive last week with online ads in Iowa, Colorado and Nevada as part of an initiative of the GOPAC Education Fund - a 501(c)4 affiliate organization.

Democrats hold a 26 to 24 edge in the Senate, and Republicans have many paths to winning a majority. Twenty-six Iowa Senate seats will be on the ballot this year: all the even-numbered districts plus Senate district 49, where there is no incumbent. Republican candidates have no Democratic opponents in districts 2 (Randy Feenstra), 10 (primary between Jake Chapman and Matthew Mardesen), 12 (Joni Ernst), 20 (Brad Zaun), 40 (Ken Rozenboom). Republican candidates will be favored in districts 22 (primary between Pat Ward and Jeff Mullen) and 24 (Jerry Behn).

The most endangered Republican Senate incumbents are in district 26 (Merlin Bartz) and in district 46 (winner of primary between Jim Hahn and Shawn Hamerlinck). Tim Kapucian may also face a strong challenge from the winner of the three-way Democratic primary in district 38.

To their credit, Republicans recruited candidates for every Senate race. Democrats will be heavily favored to hold districts 16 (Dick Dearden), 18 (Janet Petersen), 42 (primaries on both sides), 44 (Tom Courtney), and 50 (Pam Jochum).

The most endangered Democratic incumbents are in districts 26 (Mary Jo Wilhelm vs Bartz), 30 (Jeff Danielson vs Matt Reisetter), 32 (Brian Schoenjahn vs Elliott Henderson), 34 (Liz Mathis vs Randi Shannon), and 36 (Steve Sodders vs the winner of a GOP primary). The GOP failed to recruit a strong candidate against Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal in district 8, but tons of outside money will flow into that race anyway. I wouldn't be surprised to see GOPAC involved.

Both parties will target the open Senate districts 14 (primaries on both sides), 28 (John Beard vs Mike Breitbach), 48 (Nate Willems vs winner of GOP primary) and 49 (winner of Democratic primary vs Andrew Naeve). The Republican winners of competitive primaries in districts 4 and 6 will be favored to win the general election, but Democratic candidates are running active campaigns there.

Although few observers think Republicans are in great danger of losing their 60-40 Iowa House majority this year, a heck of a lot of House districts could become competitive, and my hunch is that Strawn will focus on quite a few of them. For instance, I expect GOPAC to actively support first-term State Representative Walt Rogers in House district 60. Rogers attended GOPAC's Emerging Leaders Class of 2012 earlier this year.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread.

Iowa House district 60: Walt Rogers flunks Politics 101

desmoinesdem — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 18:35:24 GMT

The nice thing about a large majority, like the 60 to 40 Republican advantage in the Iowa House, is not needing every vote in your caucus for every bill. Members can oppose the party line when local interests are threatened without derailing the legislative process. Retiring State Representative Steve Lukan showed how it's done when he voted against the Rebuild Iowa Infrastructure Fund budget in the House Appropriations Committee last week, because that bill left out $5 million in funding for a major project in Lukan's district.

This basic concept of representing your constituents is apparently lost on Walt Rogers. The first-term Republican from a district covering parts of Cedar Falls and Waterloo just voted for an education budget that slashes funding for the University of Northern Iowa.

UPDATE: Scroll down for Rogers' weekly newsletter, which discusses his vote on the education budget.
Yesterday the House approved Senate File 2321, an education budget for the 2013 fiscal year. The Democratic-controlled Iowa Senate passed this bill by a party-line vote on March 19. House Republicans support lower levels of education spending, so the House Appropriations Committee recommended passing an amended version of Senate File 2321. The House Republican amendment included $115 million less in funding for state universities, community colleges, tuition assistance and the Iowa Department of Education. Compared to the Senate bill, the House bill provides about $29.8 million less in state funding for the University of Iowa during the next fiscal year, about $19 million less to Iowa State University, and about $14 million less to the University of Northern Iowa.

The House journal for March 27 (pdf) covers yesterday's floor debate in detail. State representatives rejected several Democratic amendments seeking to restore funds for various education programs by party-line votes. A few proposals received bipartisan support, such as a community college tuition freeze for the 2012/2013 academic year.

After considering all the amendments, the House approved the GOP version of Senate File 2321 by 56 votes to 42. The roll call shows that three Republicans--Josh Byrnes, Brian Moore, and Dave Deyoe--joined every Democrat present to oppose final passage of this bill. Byrnes is a former high school teacher who works for North Iowa Area Community College. Moore represents a Democratic-leaning district in eastern Iowa. Deyoe represents a large part of Story County outside Ames, so while the Iowa State University campus is not in his district, many of his constituents are affiliated with ISU. Note that Deyoe opposed the pared-down education budget even though he is on the House Republican leadership team.

Since Rogers represents part of Cedar Falls and Waterloo, I would have expected him to stand up for the University of Northern Iowa. It's not as if Iowa doesn't have the cash to increase higher education funding; state revenue estimates for the coming fiscal year have grown. The Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier reported a few days ago, "Republicans serving the Cedar Valley, like State Rep. Walt Rogers, have said they are also trying to increase money to UNI to prevent 58 graduate and undergraduate programs from being cut." Rogers also joined two GOP colleagues to seek an opinion from Attorney General Tom Miller on whether the Iowa Board of Regents have the authority to close the UNI-operated Malcolm Price Laboratory School. (Miller declined to issue an opinion, citing pending litigation.)

The House version of next year's education budget could have passed without Rogers' vote. I am seeking comment on why he supported this bill and will update the post if I hear back from him.

Meanwhile, Iowa House Democrats sent out this press release within hours of yesterday's budget vote:

Des Moines, Iowa - Rep. Walt Rogers, R-Waterloo, joined House Republican leaders today in voting to slash $14 million from the University of Northern Iowa. Instead of receiving an $11 million increase over last year as approved by the Iowa Senate, Republicans changed the bill and cut UNI by another $3 million next year.
"We've already seen the devastating impact of severe budget cuts at UNI and with $1 billion in surplus and reserves this year, we can do better," said House Democratic Leader Kevin McCarthy of Des Moines. "Rep. Rogers refused to stand up for the UNI community today and backed his party leaders instead. Rep. Rogers claims he supports UNI, but he has voted against UNI at every turn."
Last week, Rep. Rogers joined Republican members of the House Appropriations Committee to take out $14 million dedicated to UNI next year in the Senate budget (Senate File 2321) and made the same vote on the House floor today. Earlier this year, Rep. Rogers voted to eliminate the UNI Metal Casting Center (House File 2337). Last year, Rep. Rogers voted to cut over $7 million from UNI and close UNI's Institute for Decision Making.
The Republican cuts to UNI were just one part of the education budget approved today which slashed funding by $115 million total for state universities, community colleges, and tuition assistance. Under the Republican budget plan, funding for Iowa's community colleges would be reduced $25 million and Iowa's three public universities would receive $65 million less. The bill, Senate File 2321, now goes back to the Senate.

UNI's annual budget is approximately $160 million, so a difference of $14 million in state funding is a large chunk of change. House and Senate leaders will negotiate a compromise education budget in conference committee, so the final level of state support for UNI next fiscal year is unlikely to be as low as in the spending bill the House approved yesterday. To my mind, that makes Rogers' vote even more foolish. Why go on record supporting cuts to one of the largest employers in your district? UNI employs approximately 1,850 people in the Waterloo-Cedar Falls metro area. CORRECTION: According to UNI human resources staff, the university supports 1,894 permanent jobs, plus 692 temporary jobs, plus approximately 3,300 part-time student jobs.

State support for UNI is sure to be a recurring theme of this year's election campaign in the new Iowa House district 60, covering parts of southern Cedar Falls and southwest Waterloo.

Rogers enjoys a GOP edge in voter registration. According to the Secretary of State's Office, House district 60 contained 6,287 Democrats, 7,553 Republicans, and 8,298 no-party voters as of March 2012 (pdf).

Rogers has shown himself to be a strong campaigner. He almost defeated incumbent State Senator Jeff Danielson in 2008, a strong year for Democratic turnout in Iowa. Rogers lost to Danielson by just 22 votes out of more than 32,000 cast (pdf). In 2010, Rogers defeated Democratic incumbent Doris Kelley in the old House district 20 by more than 900 votes.

The March 6 press release announcing Rogers' re-election campaign indicates that he has become a favorite of Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen:

"I ran my 2010 campaign on a platform of 'smaller, smarter government,'" said Rogers. "We have made real progress toward this goal, and I hope to continue representing the Cedar Valley in the Iowa House of Representatives."
Though a freshman legislator, Rogers has been identified as a rising star among the House majority. According to House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, "Walt Rogers is one of the hardest workers in the Iowa House and is doing a remarkable job representing his district."
Speaker Paulsen recently nominated Rogers to attend GOPAC's Emerging Leaders Class of 2012; only 15 freshman legislators nationwide are invited to attend.
Rogers is currently working for passage of a constitutional amendment limiting government spending to 99% of revenues and requiring a 3/5 majority vote in each chamber of the legislature for any tax increases. He is the floor manager for SF 430, a bill putting real power behind Iowa's open meetings and open records law, and HF 2390, which helps county attorneys more effectively prosecute human trafficking and child pornography crimes.
Rogers serves on the Appropriations, Judiciary, State Government, and Transportation committees and is the vice chair of the Administration and Regulation Appropriations Subcommittee. He was elected in 2010 to represent then-House District 20.
Walt Rogers has been married to Jenny, a Speech-Language Pathologist employed by Area Education Agency 267, for 31 years; Walt and Jenny have three children and four grandchildren. Rogers grew up in west Waterloo and currently resides in Cedar Falls. The new House District 60 is comprised of much of west Waterloo and southern Cedar Falls, Hudson, and southwestern rural Black Hawk County.

There are 22 first-term Republicans in the Iowa House. Choosing Rogers for a national GOPAC event suggests that Paulsen will commit whatever resources he needs for the race in the new House district 60.

Rogers may also benefit from outside financial support. He endorsed Rick Santorum for president last summer and recently came out for fellow Santorum backer Ben Lange in the GOP primary to represent Iowa's first Congressional district. Nick Ryan chairs a 527 group called the Team Iowa PAC, which has gotten involved in many statehouse races, most recently last year's special election in Iowa Senate district 18. Ryan is the founder of the 501(c)4 group American Future Fund, which spent more than $1 million trying to defeat Ben Lange's opponent Bruce Braley in 2010. Ryan also worked as a paid consultant for Santorum's presidential campaign in 2011 and runs the pro-Santorum super-PAC.

Rogers raised $14,709 in 2011. His itemized contributions don't show anything from Nick Ryan or the Team Iowa PAC so far, just individual contributions and money from PACs that give to most incumbent legislators.

The Democratic challenger in House district 60 is Waterloo City Council member Bob Greenwood. Besides being elected three times to the city council as an at-large member, Greenwood is a pharmacist who owns Greenwood Drug, Professional Compounding Center in Waterloo and a pharmacy in Denver (Bremer County). Excerpt from his campaign announcement of July 2011:

"After growing up around the family owned grocery store in Farley and owning my own main street business for nearly 30 years, I understand the values, needs, and expectations of Iowans and our local community," said Greenwood. "I will always put partisanship, and ideology aside to do what's best for our community."
Greenwood, who was born and raised in Iowa, has been a community leader for decades and is currently his third term as a Waterloo City Council at-large member. He is a member of St. Edward Catholic Church in Waterloo where he has served on the Parish Council, Finance committee, and the Waterloo Catholic Deanery Council.
"I am running for state representative because I want to make sure the next generation - including my own children - have the same opportunities I did growing up in Iowa. We need good paying jobs, strong quality of life, and world class schools. Knowing the important roles that the University of Northern Iowa and Hawkeye Community College play in our community, I will do all I can to strengthen those institutions and keep tuition affordable," added Greenwood.
As President of the National Community Pharmacists Association, Greenwood is also a national leader on health care issues. Greenwood added, "As health care changes continue in Iowa, I look forward to using my experience to help improve both the quality and affordability of health care in Iowa."
Bob and his wife Chery have been married for 28 years and they have three children, Joe and wife Torie, Tim, and Abby. He has been involved in Waterloo Housing Authority, Columbus High School Strategic Planning Committee, Waterloo Visiting Nurses Association, American Diabetes Association, Pheasants Forever, Iowa Pharmacist's Association, and Creighton University Pharmacy School Advisory Committee.

Mysteriously, Greenwood raised absolutely no money in 2011, despite declaring his campaign with nearly six months left in the year. Perhaps there is a strategy behind not showing your cards early; many GOP challengers who lagged in the 2010 money race ended up winning their elections. But Greenwood will need to step up his fundraising if he wants to beat Rogers. Iowa House Democratic leaders have a lot of seats to play for and can't be counted on to match whatever Paulsen will spend defending House district 60.

Any relevant thoughts are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Rogers devoted most of his weekly newsletter of March 29 to his vote on the education budget. Excerpts:

Rogers' Capitol Review
HOUSE PASSES RESPONSIBLE EDUCATION BUDGET
The House passed the Education Appropriations bill this week by a vote of 56-24 after many hours of debate. The bill, in the end, spends $775 million to fund the Department of Education (including the State Library, Early Childhood Iowa, community colleges, vocational rehab, and Iowa Public Television), the Department for the Blind, the College Student Aid Commission (including tuition grants), and the Board of Regents.
The budget the House passed lives within the means of the state and follows my principles of spending less than the state takes in and fulfilling the Legislature's promises to the state. It's a credible budget that keeps community college funding at the previous year's level, funds the Iowa Tuition Grants at last year's level. It also restored the cut to the Jobs for America's Grads program.
That isn't to say there weren't difficult choices made. Several tuition grant programs were cut, including the Nurse Educator Loan program and the Barber & Cosmetology Grant program. The subcommittee felt those were grants that didn't warrant state funds when other parts of the budget were facing cuts. Additionally, Iowa Public Television received a $2.6 million reduction, as the subcommittee felt federal funds and public donations on top of the remaining $4 million could keep IPTV going. The Regents Universities funding included about a 6% cut. Accounting for funding that is allocated outside of this budget, the net cut equals about 2%.
House Democrats offered amendments for an additional $108 million in spending. None passed.
House Republicans value education. This is reflected in the budget that was passed last year and the budget that is being crafted this year. House Republicans value living within our means and spending less than we take in. This does not mean spending every dime available. The Education budget the House passed reflects all of these values.
The bill will travel back to the Senate where it is unlikely to be accepted. Eventually it will end up in a conference committee where final determinations are made.
MY VOTE ON THE EDUCATION BUDGET
I am committed to lowering the tax burden on people of the Cedar Valley and of Iowa. Previous Legislatures spent Iowans' hard earned tax dollars with reckless abandon. They did not use sound budget practices or sustained cash reserves. They continue to put forth irresponsible earmarks. A sound economic principle is this; every dollar taken from the taxpayer and given to the government becomes less efficient. I campaigned on those issues and will vote that way.
Since 1998, the budgets at Iowa's universities have continued to grow at an unsustainable rate. For too long that burden has just been pushed onto the backs of our students, which is not fair. It's time that these institutions look for efficiencies and savings in their budgets just like every Iowan is doing. I did not support efforts by Democrats to once again hand universities a blank check to continue unsustainable spending while at the same time saddling our students with higher tuitions and more debt. The people of the Cedar Valley sent me to Des Moines to protect their pocketbooks and fund their priorities. I will continue to work with university officials, Legislators and Iowans to advocate for the special circumstances at the University of Northern Iowa and develop the best solutions for everyone involved.
DID YOU KNOW PART OF TUITION COSTS ARE SET ASIDE FOR OTHER STUDENTS?
This is an article written by my fellow Representative, Scott Raecker (www.raeckerbacker.com):
Starting in the late 1980s the University of Iowa (Iowa), Iowa State University (ISU), and the University of Northern Iowa (UNI) implemented a practice of setting aside a portion of tuition payments to offer as scholarships to other students.
In September 2004, the Board of Regents (BOR) approved a formal policy that requires the public universities to set-aside a minimum of 15% of gross tuition proceeds for student financial aid. Many universities in other states have similar policies.
In FY 2011, over $144 million (21.3%) of tuition proceeds was set-aside and awarded to undergraduates and graduate/professional students as need-based and merit-based aid at all three institutions. A total of 25,583 undergraduate students received student financial aid through the tuition set-aside funds.
Each university sets the amount of tuition set aside for scholarship of other students. The percentage and amounts vary between each school, undergraduate and graduate, and resident and non-resident tuition. The following percentages of resident tuition are set aside for each institution: Iowa - 24%, ISU - 18.6%, UNI - 15.3%.
For undergraduate students the current effect of the policy is that $1,864 of the $7,765 tuition bill at the University of Iowa is used to offset scholarships of other students. At ISU - $1,392 of the $7,486 tuition bill goes to other students and at UNI - $980 of the $6,408 tuition bill is applied to other students' scholarships rather than direct costs of the paying student.
I have asked numerous constituents who have attended, or have students attending, Iowa, ISU and UNI if they are aware of the set aside. Not a single person was aware of the policy - and every person felt strongly that the policy should be disclosed to those paying tuition.
The current policy is disclosed in the Financial Statements of each institution and is discussed annually at a BOR meeting and with each respective Student Senate. I commend members of the BOR leadership, and our university presidents, for working to enhance disclosure by drafting a policy proposal that would "provide each student a notice of the specific amount of tuition set aside that is required" by each institution. This notice would be prominently printed in student tuition statements, receipts, and e- mails sent to students regarding tuition.
The BOR is committed to the integrity of the institutions, and to openness and transparency of policies impacting students. It is critical that the BOR act swiftly to implement the proposed disclosure policy to inform students of the practice to use a portion of their tuition payments to subsidize other students' education costs.

IA-01: Blum's stump speech and more endorsements for Lange

desmoinesdem — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 11:20:00 GMT

Republican rivals Rod Blum and Ben Lange continue to make very different cases for their candidacies in Iowa's first Congressional district. Blum emphasizes his biography and experience, while Lange emphasizes the network of support he is building in his second attempt to defeat Representative Bruce Braley.

Follow me after the jump for a closer look at Blum's pitch to Republican audiences and Lange's new endorsements from nine GOP state legislators, complementing the steering committee he announced earlier this month.
On March 10, Blum spoke to Republican delegates at four county conventions: Linn, Fayette, Black Hawk, and Jackson. He had surrogates speaking on his behalf at most of the other conventions in the district.

Linn County is the most populous in the new IA-01, and Blum's speech to delegates there is up on YouTube. The video is blurry, but Blum's voice is clear.

Blum leads with his business background in software development and real estate development. For 21 years, he's managed a payroll and balanced a budget. This is consistent with the "age, experience and accomplishments" theme running through his campaign communications.

Blum outlines two main reasons he's running for Congress. First, 80 percent of Americans do not believe their children will live a better life than they do. He lived the American dream and thinks it's a "tragedy" and "travesty" if that is lost. He wants to get the government off our backs so that our children can live the American dream. Second, the Founding Fathers envisioned an inverted triangle with "we the people" at the top and the government at the bottom. Instead, we now have the "tyranny" of a triangle with government at the top and the people at the bottom. Blum wants to restore the proper balance.

Blum never mentions Lange by name during this speech, but around the 1:46 mark, he begins to make a case against his GOP primary rival. He tells the Linn County delegates that he not an "aspiring career politician." Rather, he thinks career politicians are part of the problem. He supports term limits and a steep salary cut for members of Congress. (Lange worked as a Congressional staffer during his 20s and has limited job experience outside the political world.)

Blum picks up this thread again around the 4:05 mark:

There's a primary June 5, I'd appreciate your support. I think the GOP gets in trouble--we did in '96 with Bob Dole, when we say this person now deserves to be nominated, it's his turn. I am the person who has the age, I also have the career experience and the accomplishments to go toe to toe with Bruce Braley. He is profoundly beatable. We can do this this time in 2012.

Lange hinted in his official campaign announcement that he deserves the GOP nomination because he took on Braley against long odds in 2010, when "nobody else would."

I heard an indirect answer to that assertion early in Blum's stump speech, shortly after the candidate describes himself as "staunchly pro-life from conception to the cradle to the grave" (around the 1:10 mark):

Most importantly, I'm a husband, father, stepfather, and a surrogate father to Malcolm, who's a 19-year-old African-American boy from the inner city of Chicago. I coached him. He became an orphan when his mother died at 42 years old. We took him into our home and into our family. That's why I did not run [for Congress] two years ago, because we were doing something that was very pro-life. We were trying to save one man's life.

Blum added that Malcolm was once a sixth-grader who could not read but is now a junior at the University of Dubuque with a 3.8 grade point average.

Blum's latest campaign newsletter, released on March 19, makes a more explicit case against Lange's candidacy.

Greetings from the 1st Congressional District campaign trail! When I spoke in Osage last week at the Mitchell County GOP meeting, a lady asked me how I was different from my primary opponent. A very good question and something voters should know! I spoke about my age, experience and accomplishment. I believe that having raised a family, taking care of your parents, starting businesses, meeting a payroll every week for 21 years, balancing a budget and dealing with an over-reaching government every day is the type of experience needed in Washington. I questioned how many lawyers in Washington could meet a payroll? I spoke about a lifetime of experiencing success, as well as defeat, builds character in a person. I also shared that I do not covet a career in politics - in fact I firmly believe career politicians in Washington are a large part of the problem.
Most Iowans I speak to are tired of "politics as usual". They are tired of the establishment in Washington telling them how to run their lives. They are tired of career politicians. They are tired of media reports of fundraising results and the numbers of professional political staff that have been hired. This is exactly what has gotten us in this mess . . . it surely won't get us out of it.

That last dig refers to the Lange campaign press release of February 27, which announced "the addition of several key members to his 2012 campaign team": Cody Brown of CODIAS LLC as advisor, Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies as pollster, Ron Butler of Creative Direct LLC as direct mail consultant, Jake Braunger as director of operations, Kate Maloy as finance director, and Greg Torgerson as treasurer.

I am seeking further information about the claim Blum posted on Facebook earlier this month:

Learning the ropes about politics: my primary opponent insinuates a govt. job to some "volunteers" if elected. More politics as usual.
If you're tired of politics as usual visit: www.rodblum.com

So far, Lange's not taking Blum's bait. He is sticking to his story about having the largest and most effective campaign organization in IA-01. From the Lange for Congress press release of March 21:

Key State Legislators Join Lange's Steering Committee
Lange continues to build broad coalition for Braley challenge
Independence, IA - Less than 2 weeks after having announced over 50 tea party leaders, Republican activists, and community leaders as members of the Lange Steering Committee, U.S. Congressional candidate Ben Lange adds key state Senators and state Representatives to Committee.
"I am humbled to have the support of these fine legislators. Clearly Iowans all across the new 1st District have come together to challenge incumbent Bruce Braley," Lange said.
State Representative Steven Lukan (Dubuque) said, "Ben is a working class Iowan like us and given the certain financial catastrophe to face this nation, we need someone like Ben who can look us in the eye and tell us the truth."
"We need fresh blood in Washington. We cannot continue to send the 'same old, same old' and hope for solutions to Washington's fiscal insanity. What we need is someone who has the guts to put principle before party," commented State Representative Walt Rogers (Black Hawk).
"Ben has earned district-wide support, a top-notch organization, and garnered the necessary resources to go toe-to-toe with Bruce Braley and win." added State Senator Tim Kapucian (Benton)
The additions to the Lange for Congress Steering Committee include:
State Rep Bob Hager (Allamakee)
State Rep Lee Hein (Jones)
State Sen Tim Kapucian (Benton)
State Rep Steven Lukan (Dubuque)
State Rep Brian Moore (Jackson)
State Rep Dawn Pettengill (Benton)
State Rep Josh Byrnes (Mitchell)
State Rep Walt Rogers (Black Hawk)
State Rep Lance Horbach (Tama)
"The addition of these men and women to our team is another sign that Iowans have had enough of Braley's extreme and divisive agenda. I look forward to continuing to unite Iowans of all stripes and backgrounds in the coming weeks."

Kapucian is an assistant Senate minority leader, and Lukan is an assistant House majority leader, but Lukan isn't running for re-election, and neither is Horbach. Five of Lange's new steering committee members are first-term Iowa House members (Rogers, Byrnes, Moore, Hein, and Hager), so I wouldn't consider them "key" state legislators. Then again, all sitting lawmakers have a certain amount of clout with party activists in their districts.

While I understand the tactics, the quotations in this press release strike me as too generic. Any challenger could be described as "fresh blood" able to "look us in the eye and tell us the truth." Claiming someone has "the guts to put principle before party" is more convincing if you can provide at least one example of Lange putting his principles before Republican Party interests. We're all left guessing what Rogers is talking about.

Kapucian's comment echoes earlier rhetoric from the Lange camp: our guy deserves the nomination because he has raised more money and is building a stronger organization. Granted, I'm not the target audience, but "I have more cash and more endorsements from important people" doesn't sound too inspiring to me.

Maybe Lange doesn't need to say more than that, given the name recognition advantage he carries from his 2010 campaign. Blum has been spending a lot of time on the road, but he may also need to spend a substantial amount of his campaign cash introducing himself and his message to primary voters before June.

Any comments about the IA-01 race are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Lange has been hitting the parade circuit. Here's a photo of his truck for the March 24 St. Joseph's Day parade in the "Czech Village" neighborhood of Cedar Rapids. The only slogan I see on the truck (other than Lange's campaign logo) is a colorful "VOTE FOR MY DADDY" sign. At the St. Patrick's Day parade in Waukon (Allamakee County), Lange's young daughters posed next to a green "Vote for my Irish Daddy" sign.

First look at Democratic prospects for Iowa House gains

desmoinesdem — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 11:15:00 GMT

The redistricting process and several Republican retirements have created many pickup opportunities for Iowa House Democrats. The devastating 2010 election left them nowhere to go but up in the lower chamber, where Republicans currently enjoy a 60 to 40 majority. Relatively few sitting House Democrats represent vulnerable districts.

Speaking to activists at the Polk County Democratic convention on March 10, I heard lots of optimism about the House races. After the jump I've posted some early thoughts on the seats up for grabs.
Of the 40 current Iowa House Democrats, two opted to retire from the legislature. Kurt Swaim and Andrew Wenthe were paired with fellow Democratic incumbents Curt Hanson and Roger Thomas, respectively. Two other Democratic representatives, Janet Petersen and Nate Willems, decided to run for the Iowa Senate rather than seek re-election to the House.

That leaves 36 Iowa House Democrats seeking re-election. Of those, 15 do not have a Republican opponent and are therefore virtually assured of winning another term: Rick Olson, Kevin McCarthy, Brian Quirk, Sharon Steckman, Deborah Berry, Tyler Olson, Kirsten Running-Marquardt, Todd Taylor, Dave Jacoby, Jerry Kearns, Vicki Lensing, Mary Mascher, Cindy Winckler, Mary Wolfe, and Chuck Isenhart.

I must point out that at this stage in 2010, State Representatives John Beard and Tom Schueller didn't have Republican opponents either, yet both ended up losing in November. I don't expect any of the currently unchallenged House Democrats to meet the same fate.

Another 14 Democratic incumbents have Republican competition but shouldn't have any trouble winning re-election in their strongly Democratic districts: Helen Miller, Pat Murphy, Jim Lykam, Dennis Cohoon, Mary Gaskill, Mark Smith, Anesa Kajtazovic, Lisa Heddens, Beth Wessel-Kroeschell, Jo Oldson, Ako Abdul-Samad, Bruce Hunter, Ruth Ann Gaines, and Dan Kelley. Disclaimer: several Democrats thought to be "safe" lost in 2010, and more could fall if 2012 turns out to be another horrible year for Democrats generally.

The last seven Democratic House incumbents face potentially difficult re-election battles, either because of the partisan lean of their district, because they are relatively new to politics, or because they have drawn a particularly strong opponent.

John Wittneben in the new district 7. He won an open seat by a few dozen votes in 2010, and his new district no longer has a strong Democratic voter registration advantage. Two Republicans filed to challenge him: Mark Frakes and Tedd Gassman.

Dan Muhlbauer is another first-term Democrat, having won an open-seat race against an unbelievably weak Republican candidate. Muhlbauer's new district is a tiny bit more Democratic, but if Republican candidate Barney Bornhoft has the faintest clue, he should be a stronger opponent than the man Muhlbauer beat in 2010.

Chris Hall also won an open seat in 2010. He is the only House Democrat who will face a sitting House Republican in the general election. First-term GOP State Representative Jeremy Taylor decided to run here after the new map placed his house outside of his current district. He proved himself to be a strong campaigner by almost beating a Democratic incumbent in 2008 and winning an open seat in 2010.

Roger Thomas has more experience in the House, but the new district 55 has a GOP voter registration advantage, unlike the seat where Thomas was previously elected. Three Republicans filed to challenge him: Michael Klimesh, Marshall Nessa, and Dustin Noble.

Bob Kressig has won re-election by narrow margins several times. The winner of the GOP primary between James Kenyon and Howard Lyon will face Kressig in the new district 59.

Curt Hanson won a 2009 special election and his 2010 re-election in a Republican-leaning district, so he stands a decent chance of overcoming the voter registration disadvantage in the new district 82. Two Republicans have filed for this seat: James Johnson and Jeff Shipley.

Phyllis Thede knocked off a GOP incumbent in 2008 and survived the 2010 wave in a Democratic-leaning seat. Her new district 93 is more evenly divided in terms of voter registration. The good news is that she doesn't appear to have drawn a particularly strong candidate in Mark Nelson.

Depending on how many of those seven incumbents hang on, Democrats will have between 29 and 36 current House members returning in 2013.

One Democratic pick-up is a lock: Republicans aren't fielding a candidate in the new House district 57, where Steve Lukan is retiring. Nancy Dunkel is the only Democrat on the ballot.

The new House district 36 should be an easy hold for the winner of the Democratic primary between Marti Anderson, Cara Kennedy-Ode, and William Rock. Janet Petersen left this district open when she decided to run for Senate district 19.

That leaves House Democrats with 31 to 38 seats--a long way from the 51 they need to win back the majority.

The optimism I heard at the convention stems from the many strong candidates Democrats are fielding in Republican-held districts.

In general, it's easier for a political party to pick up an open seat than to defeat an incumbent from the other side. The following 13 districts with no incumbent seem potentially winnable for Democrats:

* district 14, left empty under the redistricting plan. Democrats have a voter registration advantage here; their unsuccessful 2010 candidate David Dawson will face Republican Greg Grupp.

* district 26, where Republican Glen Massie opted not to seek re-election. Massie's 2010 Democratic opponent, Scott Ourth, faces the winner of the GOP primary between Ruth Randleman and Steve McCoy.

* district 28, where Republican Rich Arnold is retiring. Democrat Megan Day Suhr will face the winner of the GOP primary between Len Gosselink and Greg Heartsill (my money's on Heartsill to be the general election candidate).

* district 30, where Republican Kim Pearson opted not to seek re-election. Altoona City Council member Joe Riding is the Democratic candidate; Republicans have a primary between Jim Carley and Carol Miller.

* district 40, where Republican House Appropriations Committee Chair Scott Raecker opted not to seek re-election. Urbandale City Council member John Forbes is the Democratic candidate; he'll face business owner and veteran Mike Brown.

* district 63, left empty under the redistricting plan. Former Democratic State Senator Bill Heckroth faces Sandy Salmon here.

* district 64, where Republican Dan Rasmussen retired. Two candidates from Oelwein are on the ballot: Democratic City Council member Bruce Bearinger and Republican business owner Jim Givant. The party registration numbers lean Democratic.

* district 72, where Republican Lance Horbach retired. The voter registration numbers lean to the GOP. Dean Fisher is the only Republican on the ballot here; a Democratic primary looms between Christina Blackcloud-Garcia and Nathan Wrage.

* district 73, where House Speaker Pro Tem Jeff Kaufmann is retiring. His son, Bobby Kaufmann, is the only Republican on the ballot. He'll have name recognition going for him, but clearly he won't be nearly as tough an opponent as his father would be. Democrats have a primary here between David Johnson and Dick Schwab.

* district 76, left empty after redistricting. Grinnell City Council member Rachel Bly will face the winner of a Republican primary between David Maxwell and Larry Wilson (my money's on Wilson, a Poweshiek County supervisor).

* district 77, left empty after redistricting. The voter registration numbers give the advantage to Democrat Sally Stutsman over Republican Steve Sherman.

* district 80, left empty after redistricting. Joe Judge, the son of former Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge, is the Democratic candidate here. His GOP opponent will be Larry Sheets.

* district 95, where Democrat Nate Willems is running for the Senate instead of for a third term in the House. Two teachers will face off here: Republican Quentin Stanerson and Democrat Kristin Keast.

Obviously, Democrats aren't going to sweep all of those House races, but even winning half of them would represent a major step forward.

There are at least 12 districts Democrats can credibly play for despite the fact that Republican incumbents are seeking re-election. (I'm not saying lightning couldn't strike in some other Republican-held district, but the other Democratic challengers will face long odds given the partisan lean.)

* district 15, covering Carter Lake and the western part of Council Bluffs; first-term GOP Representative Mark Brandenburg moved into this district. The Democratic candidate is George Yaple.

* district 38, where Ankeny Republican Kevin Koester, who was elected from a solidly Republican district, has to seek re-election in an evenly divided seat. John Phoenix is the Democratic candidate here (Koester also has a primary challenger).

* district 43, where Republican Chris Hagenow will be favored but Democrat Susan Judkins has a strong resume.

* district 47, where Democrat Donovan Olson is seeking a rematch with Chip Baltimore, who defeated him by a narrow margin in 2010.

* district 56, where Patti Ruff is running against first-term Republican Bob Hager.

* district 58, where former State Representative Tom Schueller is seeking a rematch with surprise 2010 winner Brian Moore.

* district 60, now represented by first-term Republican Walt Rogers. Bob Greenwood is the Democratic challenger in this Waterloo/Cedar Falls district.

* district 66, where Democrat Art Staed is challenging the Republican who beat him in 2008, Renee Schulte. The voter registration numbers lean Democratic, but Schulte has proved herself to be a strong campaigner.

* district 68, where Daniel Lundby, the son of the late Republican State Senator Mary Lundby, will be a big underdog against two-term Republican Nick Wagner.

* district 88, where House Ways and Means Committee Chair Tom Sands will be heavily favored against Democrat Sara Sedlacek.

* district 91, where 2010 winner Mark Lofgren is up against Democrat John Dabeet.

* district 92, where 2010 GOP winner Ross Paustian (an unsuccessful House candidate in 2008) is up against former State Senator Frank Wood.

Again, Democrats are not going to sweep these races, but having so many GOP-held seats in play will be helpful. Every dollar House Republican leaders spend defending their own incumbents is a dollar they can't spend targeting the vulnerable House Democrats.

It's also worth noting that eleven sitting House Republicans face primary challengers. As a result, many Republicans in safe seats will have to spend money on their own re-election campaigns, rather than in districts Democrats are targeting.

I don't see the House changing hands in 2013, but with good campaigning and GOTV, Democrats should be able to climb most of the way out of their 60-40 hole.

Any comments about the Iowa House races are welcome in this thread.

Who's who in the Iowa House for 2012

desmoinesdem — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 23:46:35 GMT

Although the 60 Republicans and 40 Democrats in the Iowa House haven't changed since last year, I thought it was worth updating this post, because some committee assignments have changed, and House Democrats reshuffled their ranking members somewhat.

Majority and minority leadership teams are after the jump, along with all members of standing House committees. All 100 House districts are on the ballot every two years, so I've noted the new district numbers for state representatives seeking re-election in 2012, as well as which House members have said they will retire after this year's legislative session.
Iowa House Republican leadership team

Speaker Kraig Paulsen (bio) was first elected in 2002 from district 35, covering suburban and rural areas in Linn County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 67.

Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer (bio) was first elected in 2002 from district 12, covering Franklin County and part of Cerro Gordo and Hancock. Redistricting put her in the new House district 8, but she is moving to the Clear Lake area to seek re-election in the new House district 54 instead. District 54 covers all of Franklin County and parts of Cerro Gordo and Butler Counties.

Speaker Pro Tem Jeff Kaufmann (bio) was first elected in 2004 from district 79, covering Cedar County and parts of Johnson and Muscatine. He is up for re-election in the new House district 73, covering all of Cedar County, a larger area in Johnson County and a tiny portion of Muscatine County.

Majority Whip Erik Helland (bio) was first elected in 2008 in House district 69, covering suburban and rural areas in Polk County. He is up for re-election in the new district 39, covering a smaller area in the northwest Polk County suburbs.

Assistant majority leaders: Matt Windschitl (bio was first elected in 2006 from district 56, covering Harrison County, most of Monona and part of Pottawattamie. He is up for re-election in the new district 17, covering all of Ida and Monona Counties and parts of Harrison and Woodbury Counties.

Renee Schulte (bio) was first elected in 2008 from district 37, covering part of Cedar Rapids in Linn County. She is up for re-election in the new House district 66, covering a similar area. Her likely opponent is Art Staed, the Democratic incumbent Schulte defeated in 2008.

Dave Deyoe (bio) was first elected in 2006 from district 10, covering most of Story County outside Ames and part of Hamilton County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 49, covering parts of Story and Hardin Counties.

Steve Lukan (bio) was first elected in 2002 from district 32, covering parts of Dubuque and Delaware counties. He decided not to seek re-election after the redistricting plan put him in Democratic-leaning House district 57.

Iowa House Democratic leadership team

Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (bio) was first elected in 2002 from district 67, covering the southeast side of Des Moines. He served as House majority leader from 2007 through 2010 alongside House Speaker Pat Murphy. He is up for re-election in the new House district 33, also centered on the southeast side of Des Moines.

Assistant Minority Leaders: Ako Abdul-Samad (bio) was first elected in 2006 from district 66, covering much of central Des Moines in Polk County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 35, covering central and north-side neighborhoods in Des Moines.

Mary Mascher (bio) was first elected in 1994 from district 77, covering part of Iowa City in Johnson County. She is up for re-election in the new House district 86, covering a similar area.

Kirsten Running-Marquardt is the newest member of the House Democratic leadership team, replacing Sharon Steckman as assistant leader in November 2011. Running-Marquardt won a 2009 special election in district 33, covering part of Cedar Rapids. She is up for re-election in the new House district 69, covering part of Cedar Rapids as well as small towns and rural areas in southwestern Linn County.

Mark Smith (bio) was first elected in 2000 from district 43, covering northeastern Marshall County, including Marshalltown. He is up for re-election in the new House district 71, covering a similar area.

Rural Caucus Chair: Andrew Wenthe (bio) was first elected in 2006 from district 18, covering parts of Fayette, Bremer and Black Hawk Counties. He decided not to run for re-election in 2012 after the new map put him with fellow Democrat Roger Thomas in the new House district 55.

Rural Caucus Vice-Chair: Dan Muhlbauer (bio) was first elected in 2010 from district 51, covering Carroll County and parts of Sac and Crawford Counties. He is up for re-election in the new House district 12, covering all of Carroll and Audubon Counties and parts of Crawford.

Iowa House Standing Committees

Administration and Rules

Chair: Renee Schulte (see bio above)

Vice Chair: Dave Deyoe (see bio above)

Ranking member: Andrew Wenthe (see bio above)

Other members: Erik Helland (R), Jeff Kaufmann (R), Steve Lukan (R), Kraig Paulsen (R), Matt Windschitl (R), Linda Upmeyer (R), Andrew Abdul-Samad (D), Dennis Cohoon (D), Mary Mascher (D), Kevin McCarthy (D), Mark Smith (D)

Agriculture

Chair: Annette Sweeney (bio) was first elected in 2008 from district 44, covering Hardin County and most of Marshall outside Marshalltown. She is running for re-election in the new House district 50 and will face fellow incumbent Pat Grassley in the GOP primary.

Vice Chair: Lee Hein (bio) was first elected in 2010 from district 31, covering Jones County and parts of Dubuque County. He decided to move so that he could run for re-election in the new House district 96, covering all of Delaware County and part of Jones. (The redistricting plan paired Hein with another Republican incumbent in the new district 58.)

Ranking member: Helen Miller (bio) was first elected in 2002 from district 49, covering part of Webster County, including Fort Dodge. She is up for re-election in the new House district 9, covering a similar area.

Other members: Dwayne Alons (R), Clel Baudler (R), Betty DeBoef (R), Dave Deyoe (R), Cecil Dolecheck (R), Jack Drake (R), Dan Huseman (R), Brian Moore (R), Steve Olson (R), Ross Paustian (R), Dan Rasmussen (R), Tom Shaw (R), Curt Hanson (D), Chuck Isenhart (D), Dan Kelley (D), Dan Muhlbauer (D), Brian Quirk (D), Kurt Swaim (D), Roger Thomas (D), Andrew Wenthe (D)

Appropriations

Chair: Scott Raecker (bio) was first elected in 1998. During the last decade he represented district 63, covering most of Urbandale in Polk County. He is up for re-election in the new district 40, covering a similar area.

Vice Chair: Nick Wagner (bio) was first elected in 2008 from district 36, covering Marion and some rural areas of Linn County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 68, covering a similar area.

Ranking member: Tyler Olson (bio) was first elected in 2006 from district 38, covering part of Cedar Rapids in Linn County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 65, covering a similar area.

Administration and Regulation Appropriations Subcommittee Chair: Ralph Watts (bio) was first elected in 2002 from district 47, covering most of Dallas County and a small part of Boone County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 19, covering part of Dallas County and a small area in northern Polk County.

Administration & Regulation Appropriations Subcommittee ranking member: Dan Kelley (bio) was first elected in 2010 from district 41, covering most of Jasper County, including Newton. He is up for re-election in the new House district 29, covering a similar area.

Agriculture and Natural Resources Appropriations Subcommittee Chair: Jack Drake (bio) was first elected in 1992 from district 57, covering Shelby County and parts of Cass and Pottawattamie Counties. He is up for re-election in the new House district 21, covering all of Union and Adams Counties and parts of Cass and Pottawattamie Counties.

Agriculture & Natural Resources Appropriations Subcommittee ranking member: Dan Muhlbauer (see bio above)

Economic Development Appropriations Subcommittee Chair: Jason Schultz (bio) was first elected in 2008 from district 55, covering Ida County and parts of Woodbury, Crawford and Monona. He is up for re-election in the new House district 18, covering all of Shelby County and parts of Crawford and Harrison Counties.

Economic Development Appropriations Subcommittee ranking member: Chris Hall (bio) was first elected in 2010 from district 2, covering the northeast part of Sioux City in Woodbury County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 13, covering a similar area in Sioux City and part of rural Woodbury County.

Education Appropriations Subcommittee Chair: Cecil Dolecheck (bio) was first elected in 1996 from district 96, covering Montgomery, Adams, Taylor and Ringgold Counties and part of Union County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 24, covering Ringgold, Taylor and Page Counties and part of Montgomery County.

Education Appropriations Subcommittee ranking member: Cindy Winckler (bio) was first elected in 2002 from district 86, covering part of Davenport in Scott County. She is up for re-election in the new House district 90, covering a similar area.

Health and Human Services Appropriations Subcommittee Chair: Dave Heaton (bio) was first elected in 1994 from district 91, covering Henry County and part of Lee County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 84, covering Henry County and parts of Lee, Washington and Jefferson Counties.

Health & Human Services Appropriations Subcommittee ranking member: Lisa Heddens (bio) was first elected in 2002 from district 46, covering part of Story County, including the north side of Ames, and a small area in Boone County. The redistricting plan put her into the new House district 48, but Heddens decided to move into the new House district 46, covering part of Ames and Story County.

Justice Systems Appropriations Subcommittee Chair: Gary Worthan (bio) was first elected in 2006 in district 52, covering Buena Vista County and part of Sac County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 11, covering all of Buena Vista and Sac Counties.

Justice Systems Appropriations Subcommittee ranking member: Todd Taylor (bio) was first elected in a 1995 special election from House district 34, covering part of Cedar Rapids in Linn County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 70, covering a similar area.

Transportation, Infrastructure and Capitals Appropriations Subcommittee Chair: Dan Huseman (bio) was first elected in 1994 in House district 53, covering Cherokee county and parts of Plymouth and Woodbury Counties. He is up for re-election in the new House district 3, covering O'Brien and Cherokee Counties and parts of Sioux and Plymouth.

Transportation, Infrastructure and Capitals Appropriations Subcommittee ranking member: Dennis Cohoon (bio) was first elected to the Iowa House in 1986. For the last decade he has represented district 88, covering Burlington and part of eastern Des Moines County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 87, covering a similar area.

Other Appropriations Committee members: Julian Garrett (R), Chris Hagenow (R), Steve Lukan (R), Walt Rogers (R), Renee Schulte (R), Mary Gaskill (D), Chris Hall (D), Pat Murphy (D), Kirsten Running-Marquardt (D), Andrew Wenthe (D)

Commerce

Chair: Chuck Soderberg (bio) was first elected in 2004 from district 3, covering parts of Plymouth and Sioux Counties. He is up for re-election in the new House district 5, covering most of Plymouth and part of Woodbury Counties.

Vice Chair: Chip Baltimore (bio) was first elected in 2010 from district 48, covering most of Boone County and part of Dallas County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 47, covering most of Boone County and all of Greene County.

Ranking member: Brian Quirk (bio) was first elected in 2000 from district 15, covering Chickasaw and Howard Counties and part of Winneshiek County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 52, covering all of Chickasaw and Floyd Counties and a small part of Cerro Gordo.

Other members: Mark Brandenburg (R), Joel Fry (R), Pat Grassley (R), Lance Horbach (R), Stew Iverson (R), Ross Paustian (R), Dawn Pettengill (R), Tom Shaw (R), Jeff Smith (R), Nick Wagner (R), Ralph Watts (R), Matt Windschitl (R), Dave Jacoby (D), Anesa Kajtazovic (D), Bob Kressig (D), Jim Lykam (D), Dan Muhlbauer (D), Jo Oldson (D), Kurt Swaim (D)

Economic Growth/Rebuild Iowa

Chair: Pat Grassley (bio) was first elected in 2006 from district 17, covering Butler County and part of Bremer. He is up for re-election in the new House district 50, where he has been paired with fellow Republican Annette Sweeney.

Vice Chair: Mary Ann Hanusa (bio) was first elected in 2010 from district 99, covering part of Council Bluffs. She is up for re-election in the new House district 16, also covering part of Council Bluffs.

Ranking member: Roger Thomas (bio) was first elected to the Iowa House in 1996. For the past decade he represented district 24, covering Clayton County and parts of Delaware and Fayette. He is up for re-election in the new House district 55, covering parts of Winneshiek, Fayette and Clayton Counties.

Other members: Rich Anderson (R), Chip Baltimore (R), Josh Byrnes (R), Betty DeBoef (R), Bob Hager (R), Mark Lofgren (R), Steve Lukan (R), Dan Rasmussen (R), Jeff Smith (R), Jason Schultz (R), Chuck Soderberg (R), Chris Hall (D), Lisa Heddens (D), Dave Jacoby (D), Helen Miller (D), Kirsten Running-Marquardt (D), Sharon Steckman (D), John Wittneben (D)

Education

Chair: Greg Forristall (bio) was first elected in 2006 from district 98, covering parts of Pottawattamie and Mills Counties. He is up for re-election in the new House district 22, covering most of Pottawattamie County outside Council Bluffs.

Vice Chair: Jeremy Taylor (bio) was first elected in 2010 from district 1, covering the western part of Sioux City in Woodbury County. He is up for re-election in the new district 13, covering the eastern part of Sioux City and some rural areas in Woodbury County.

Ranking member: Sharon Steckman (bio) was first elected in 2008 from district 13, covering part of Cerro Gordo County, including Mason City. She is up for re-election in the new House district 53, covering a similar area.

Other members: Josh Byrnes (R), Royd Chambers (R), Peter Cownie (R), Cecil Dolecheck (R), Mary Ann Hanusa (R), Ron Jorgensen (R), Kevin Koester (R), Mark Lofgren (R), Linda Miller (R), Kim Pearson (R), Renee Schulte (R), Annette Sweeney (R), Ako Abdul-Samad (D), Dennis Cohoon (D), Ruth Ann Gaines (D), Curt Hanson (D), Dan Kelley (D), Mary Mascher (D), Cindy Winckler (D)

Environmental Protection

Chair: Steve Olson (bio) was first elected in 2002 from district 83, including parts of Scott and Clinton counties. He is up for re-election in the new House district 97, covering a large area of Clinton County.

Vice Chair: Bob Hager (bio) was first elected in 2010 from district 16, covering Allamakee and part of Winneshiek County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 56, covering Allamakee and most of Clayton County.

Ranking member: Chuck Isenhart (bio) was first elected in 2008 in district 27, covering part of Dubuque. He is up for re-election in the new House district 100, covering a similar area.

Other members: Josh Byrnes (R), Betty DeBoef (R), Dave Deyoe (R), Cecil Dolecheck (R), Lee Hein (R), Jarad Klein (R), Brian Moore (R), Ross Paustian (R), Tom Sands (R), Jason Schultz (R), Chuck Soderberg (R), Dan Kelley (D), Vicki Lensing (D), Mark Smith (D), Sharon Steckman (D), Phyllis Thede (D), Beth Wessel-Kroeschell (D), Cindy Winckler (D)

Ethics

Chair: Kevin Koester (bio) was first elected in 2008 from district 70, covering Ankeny in Polk County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 38, covering a large part of northeast Polk County.

Vice Chair: Scott Raecker (see bio above)

Ranking member: Phyllis Thede (bio), first elected in 2008 from district 81, covering part of Bettendorf and Davenport in Scott County. She is up for re-election in the new House district 93, covering less of Davenport and a larger area of Bettendorf.

Other members: James Van Engelenhoven (R), Dan Kelley (D), Mark Smith (D)

Government Oversight

Chair: Chris Hagenow (bio) was first elected in 2008 from district 59, covering some of the western Des Moines suburbs in Polk County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 43, covering a similar area.

Vice Chair: Chip Baltimore (see bio above)

Ranking member: Janet Petersen (bio) was first elected in 2000 from district 64, covering part of the west side of Des Moines in Polk County. She decided to run for the new Senate district 18 in 2012 instead of seeking another term in the House.

Other members: Clel Baudler (R), Kim Pearson (R), Dawn Pettengill (R), David Tjepkes (R), Ruth Ann Gaines (D), Bob Kressig (D)

Human Resources

Chair: Linda Miller (bio) was first elected in 2006 from district 82, covering part of Bettendorf in Scott County. She is up for re-election in the new House district 94, covering a similar area.

Vice Chair: Joel Fry (bio) was first elected in 2010 from district 95, covering Union, Clarke and Decatur Counties. He is up for re-election in the new House district 27, covering Clarke, Decatur, and Wayne Counties, and part of Lucas County.

Ranking member: Beth Wessel-Kroeschell (bio) was first elected in 2004 from district 45, covering most of Ames in Story County. She is up for re-election in the new House district 45, covering a similar area.

Other members: Richard Anderson (R), Mark Brandenburg (R), Julian Garrett (R), Dave Heaton (R), Stew Iverson (R), Ron Jorgensen (R), Kevin Koester (R), Mark Lofgren (R), Glen Massie (R), Renee Schulte (R), Ako Abdul-Samad (D), Lisa Heddens (D), Bruce Hunter (D), Mary Mascher (D), Janet Petersen (D), Mark Smith (D), Cindy Winckler (D), Mary Wolfe (D)

Judiciary

Chair: Rich Anderson (bio) was first elected in 2004 from district 97, covering Page and Fremont Counties and much of Mills County. He decided not to run for re-election in 2012.

Vice Chair: Chip Baltimore (see bio above)

During the 2011 legislative session, Kim Pearson was the vice chair of this committee, but she and House Republican leaders had a lot of friction. Pearson is not seeking re-election in the new House district 30 in 2012.

Ranking member: Mary Wolfe (bio) was first elected in 2010 in district 26, covering part of Clinton County, including the city of Clinton. She is up for re-election in the new House district 98, covering a similar area.

Other members: Dwayne Alons (R), Julian Garrett (R), Chris Hagenow (R), Dave Heaton (R), Jeff Kaufmann (R), Glen Massie (R), Kim Pearson (R), Walt Rogers (R), Jeremy Taylor (R), David Tjepkes (R), Ruth Ann Gaines (D), Vicki Lensing (D), Jo Oldson (D), Rick Olson (D), Tyler Olson (D), Mark Smith (D), Kurt Swaim (D), Beth Wessel-Kroeschell (D)

Labor

Chair: Lance Horbach (bio) was first elected in 1998 from district 40, covering Grundy County and most of Tama. He has decided not to seek re-election in 2012, leaving the new House district 72 open.

Vice Chair: Jarad Klein (bio) was first elected in 2010 from district 89, covering Washington County and parts of Johnson and Jefferson Counties. He is up for re-election in the new House district 78, covering all of Keokuk County and most of Washington County.

Ranking member: Bruce Hunter (bio) was first elected in 2003 (special election) from district 62, covering part of the south side of Des Moines in Polk County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 34, covering downtown Des Moines and part of the south side.

Other members: Mark Brandenburg (R), Dave Deyoe (R), Greg Forristall (R), Mary Ann Hanusa (R), Ron Jorgensen (R), Linda Miller (R), Brian Moore (R), Jason Schultz (R), Ralph Watts (R), Jerry Kearns (D), Pat Murphy (D), Kirsten Running-Marquardt (D), Todd Taylor (D), Nate Willems (D)

Local Government

Chair: Nick Wagner (see bio above)

Vice Chair: Jeff Smith (bio) was first elected in 2010 to district 6, covering all of Dickinson County and part of Clay County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 1, covering all of Lyon and Osceola Counties and part of Dickinson.

Ranking member: John Wittneben (bio) was first elected in 2010 from district 7, covering Palo Alto and Emmet Counties and part of Kossuth County. He is up for re-election in the new district 7, covering all of Emmet and Winnebago Counties and part of Kossuth County.

Other members: Rich Arnold (R), Chip Baltimore (R), Bob Hager (R), Erik Helland (R), Lance Horbach (R), Jarad Klein (R), Kim Pearson (R), Henry Rayhons (R), David Tjepkes (R), James Van Engelenhoven (R), Deborah Berry (D), Ruth Ann Gaines (D), Mary Gaskill (D), Anesa Kajtazovic (D), Jerry Kearns (D), Bob Kressig (D), Kirsten Running-Marquardt (D), Phyllis Thede (D)

Natural Resources

Chair: Henry Rayhons (bio) was first elected to the Iowa House in 1996. For the past decade he represented district 11, covering Winnebago and Worth Counties and part of Hancock County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 8, covering Wright and Hancock Counties and part of Kossuth County.

Vice Chair: Jeff Smith (see bio above)

Ranking member: Curt Hanson (bio) was first elected in the 2009 special election from district 90, covering Van Buren County, most of Jefferson and part of Wapello County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 82, covering Davis and Van Buren Counties and most of Jefferson County.

Other members: Rich Arnold (R), Clel Baudler (R), Joel Fry (R), Bob Hager (R), Mark Lofgren (R), Steve Lukan (R), Dan Rasmussen (R), Annette Sweeney (R), James Van Engelenhoven (R), Guy Vander Linden (R), Mary Gaskill (D), Chris Hall (D), Dan Kelley (D), Jim Lykam (D), Helen Miller (D), Sharon Steckman (D), Phyllis Thede (D), John Wittneben (D)

Public Safety

Chair: Clel Baudler (bio) was first elected in 1998 from district 58, covering Guthrie, Audubon and Adair Counties and part of Cass County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 20, covering all of Guthrie and Adair Counties and parts of Cass and Dallas Counties.

Vice Chair: Tom Shaw (bio) was first elected in 2010 from district 8, covering Pocahontas and Humboldt Counties and part of Kossuth County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 10, covering Humboldt, Pocahontas and Calhoun Counties and part of Webster County.

Ranking member: Bob Kressig (bio) was first elected in 2004 from district 19, covering most of Cedar Falls and some rural areas in Black Hawk County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 59, covering a similar area.

Other members: Dwayne Alons (R), Mark Brandenburg (R), Joel Fry (R), Chris Hagenow (R), Jarad Klein (R), Steve Olson (R), Henry Rayhons (R), Tom Sands (R), David Tjepkes (R), Matt Windschitl (R), Gary Worthan (R), Ako Abdul-Samad (D), Deborah Berry (D), Ruth Ann Gaines (D), Dan Muhlbauer (D), Rick Olson (D), Kurt Swaim (D), Mary Wolfe (D)

State Government

Chair: Peter Cownie (bio) was first elected in 2008 from district 60, covering part of West Des Moines. He is up for re-election in the new House district 42, covering parts of Des Moines and West Des Moines.

Vice Chair: Guy Vander Linden (bio) was first elected in 2010 from district 75, covering parts of Mahaska and Poweshiek Counties. He is up for re-election in the new House district 79, covering most of Mahaska County and the Pella area of Marion County.

Ranking member: Vicki Lensing (bio) was first elected in 2000 from district 78, covering part of Iowa City in Johnson County. She is up for re-election in the new House district 85, covering a similar area.

Other members: Jack Drake (R), Lee Hein (R), Erik Helland (R), Stew Iverson (R), Ron Jorgensen (R), Jeff Kaufmann (R), Kevin Koester (R), Glen Massie (R), Dawn Pettengill (R), Scott Raecker (R), Walt Rogers (R), Renee Schulte (R), Mary Gaskill (D), Bruce Hunter (D), Chuck Isenhart (D), Anesa Kajtazovic (D), Mary Mascher (D), Brian Quirk (D), Todd Taylor (D), Andrew Wenthe (D)

Transportation

Chair: David Tjepkes (bio) was first elected in 2002 from district 50, covering Calhoun and Greene Counties and part of Webster County. He decided not to seek re-election in 2012 after the redistricting plan paired him with fellow Republican Tom Shaw in the new House district 10.

Vice Chair: Glen Massie (bio) was first elected in 2010 in district 74, covering most of Warren County. He has not confirmed whether he will seek re-election in the new House district 26, also covering most of Warren County.

Ranking member: Jim Lykam (bio) was first elected in 2002 from district 85, covering part of Davenport in Scott County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 89, covering a similar area.

Other members: Rich Arnold (R), Julian Garrett (R), Dan Huseman (R), Stew Iverson (R), Kim Pearson (R), Dan Rasmussen (R), Walt Rogers (R), James Van Engelenhoven (R), Ralph Watts (R), Matt Windschitl (R), Gary Worthan (R), Dennis Cohoon (D), Chris Hall (D), Curt Hanson (D), Pat Murphy (D), Janet Petersen (D), Andrew Wenthe (D), Mary Wolfe (D)

Veterans Affairs

Chair: Royd Chambers (bio), first elected in 2002 from district 5, covering Osceola and O'Brien Counties and parts of Clay and Sioux Counties. He has decided to retire in 2012; the redistricting plan paired him with fellow Republican Dan Huseman in the new House district 3.

Vice Chair: Guy Vander Linden (see bio above)

Ranking member: Jerry Kearns (bio) was first elected in 2008 from district 92, covering part of Lee County including Keokuk and Fort Madison. He is up for re-election in the new House district 83, covering a similar area.

Other members: Dwayne Alons (R), Mary Ann Hanusa (R), Steve Lukan (R), Henry Rayhons (R), Tom Shaw (R), Annette Sweeney (R), Jeremy Taylor (R), Deborah Berry (D), Lisa Heddens (D), Dan Muhlbauer (D), Roger Thomas (D), John Wittneben (D)

Ways and Means

Chair: Tom Sands (bio) was first elected in 2002 from district 87, covering Louisa County and part of Des Moines County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 88, covering all of Louisa County and large parts of Des Moines and Muscatine Counties.

Vice Chair: Josh Byrnes (bio) was first elected in 2010 in district 14, covering Mitchell County and parts of Floyd and Cerro Gordo. He is up for re-election in the new House district 51, covering Worth, Mitchell, and Howard Counties, and part of Winneshiek.

Ranking member: Dave Jacoby (bio) was first elected in 2002 from district 30, covering Coralville and North Liberty in Johnson County. He is up for re-election in the new House district 74, covering a similar area.

Other members: Peter Cownie (R), Betty DeBoef (R), Greg Forristall (R), Pat Grassley (R), Lee Hein (R), Erik Helland (R), Jeff Kaufmann (R), Brian Moore (R), Ross Paustian (R), Dawn Pettengill (R), Chuck Soderberg (R), Jeremy Taylor (R), Guy Vander Linden (R), Chuck Isenhart (D), Anesa Kajtazovic (D), Jerry Kearns (D), Dan Muhlbauer (D), Jo Oldson (D), Janet Petersen (D), Brian Quirk (D), Roger Thomas (D), Nate Willems (D)

Administrative Rules Review

Five Iowa House and five Iowa Senate members serve on this committee.

Chair: Democratic State Senator Wally Horn

Vice Chair: Dawn Pettengill (bio) was first elected in 2004 as a Democrat in district 39, covering Benton County and part of Iowa County. She switched to the Republican caucus in 2007. She is up for re-election in the new House district 75, covering a similar area. During the 2011 legislative session, Pettengill chaired the Administrative Rules Review Committee.

Other members: Senator Merlin Bartz (R), Senator Tom Courtney (D), Senator Jack Kibbie (D), Senator James Seymour (R), State Representative Dave Heaton (R), State Representative Jo Oldson (D), State Representative Rick Olson (D), State Representative Guy Vander Linden (R)

Iowa caucus poll and endorsement news roundup

desmoinesdem — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 13:23:35 GMT

Six days before the Iowa caucuses, no Republican candidate has a clear lead, social conservatives remain scattered among several contenders, and new television commercials are launched on almost a daily basis. Numbers from the two latest opinion polls and news from the campaign trail are after the jump, along with some commercials currently showing on Iowa tv screens.

UPDATE: Added numbers from a new CNN poll and the latest Ron Paul tv ad.
Two new Iowa polls have been released in the past week. American Research Group surveyed 600 likely caucus-goers between December 19 and 22 and found three candidates clustered at the top:

Ron Paul 21 percent
Mitt Romney 20 percent
Newt Gingrich 19 percent
Rick Perry 9 percent
Michele Bachmann 8 percent
Jon Huntsman 6 percent
Rick Santorum 4 percent
other/undecided 12 percent

The same poll found Paul way ahead among respondents who said they were "probably" going to caucus (as opposed to "definitely" attending). Paul had 38 percent support in the "probably" group, followed by Romney (21 percent) and undecided (13 percent); everyone else was in single digits. But among the "definite" caucus-goers, 22 percent said they were backing Gingrich, followed by Romney (20 percent), Paul (17 percent), undecided (12 percent), Perry (10 percent), Bachmann (8 percent), and Huntsman and Santorum (5 percent each).

ARG finds Gingrich in a stronger position than other recent Iowa polls. Considering how Iowa television and radio stations have been bombarded with anti-Gingrich advertising this month, I think ARG is probably an outlier.

ARG's poll probably understates Paul's support. The sample consisted of 470 Republicans and 130 independents, so any Iowa Democrats planning to change their registrations to caucus for Paul would be invisible.

I'll eat my hat if Huntsman ends up anywhere near 6 percent on January 3. I also doubt Santorum is that far below 10 percent.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 565 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers on December 26 and 27. Tom Jensen posted toplines and a little analysis here, while complete results are in this pdf file. In contrast to ARG, PPP found Paul and Romney significantly ahead of the others:

Paul 24 percent
Romney 20 percent
Gingrich 13 percent
Bachmann 11 percent
Perry 10 percent
Santorum 10 percent
Jon Huntsman 4 percent
Buddy Roemer 2 percent
someone else/not sure 5 percent

About 72 percent of PPP's respondents said they were "strongly committed" to the candidate of their choice, while 28 percent "might end up supporting someone else." There's no clear leader on second choices:

not sure/someone else 25 percent
Santorum 14 percent
Bachmann 12 percent
Gingrich 12 percent
Perry 11 percent
Romney 10 percent
Paul 9 percent
Huntsman 7 percent
Roemer 1 percent

PPP found Santorum to have the best favorability numbers (56 percent favorable opinion, 29 percent unfavorable). Bachmann, Perry, and Paul were also in net positive territory, while Romney, Huntsman and Gingrich had more unfavorable than favorable ratings among respondents.

Republicans made up 76 percent of PPP's poll sample, no-party voters 16 percent and Democrats 8 percent, so PPP is capturing some of the potential crossover voters. The big question is will Paul's coalition show up on January 3? PPP's Jensen notes,

Paul's strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state. Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul's candidacy looks like it's going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. [...]
Paul continues to have much more passionate support than Romney. 77% of his voters are firmly committed to him, compared to 71% for Romney. Among voters who say their minds are completely made up Paul's lead expands to 7 points at 28-21. If Paul's lead holds on through next Tuesday it appears he'll have won this on the ground- 26% of voters think he's run the strongest campaign in the state to 18% for Bachmann and 10% for Santorum with just 5% bestowing that designation to Romney. There's also an increasing sense that Paul will indeed win the state- 29% think he'll emerge victorious with 15% picking Romney and no one else in double digits.
Although Romney's support has held steady at 20% over the last week his favorability numbers have taken a hit, something that could keep him from moving into first place over the final week. He was at +9 (49/40) but has dipped now into negative territory at -3 (44/47). Additionally Romney is the second choice of only 10% of voters, barely better than Paul's 9%. It's certainly still close enough that he could win, but there's nothing within the numbers this week to suggest that he should win. One of Romney's biggest problems continues to be his inability to hold onto his 2008 voters. Only 48% of them are still with him.

The presidential candidates haven't spent as much on Iowa television this year as they did collectively in 2007, but this month the airwaves are saturated. All year I've thought Paul's commercials were the most effective. Besides this Christmas-themed ad featuring the candidate's son, Senator Rand Paul, the campaign has been running this 60-second spot, "The one you can trust":

A slightly different version of that commercial, filmed in the style of a movie preview, aired in August. The Paul campaign has also been running this testoterone-charged 30-second ad called "Big Dog":

So many political commercials have the same look and feel, but that voice-over sounds more like what you might hear on an ad for pro wrestling. The president can't single-handedly do everything Paul is promising, but the ad sure makes him sound macho.

In addition to hiring the best creative consultants, Paul's campaign has the best organization on the ground. He drew large crowds during a swing through eastern Iowa before Christmas: around 500 people in Bettendorf and hundreds more in Dubuque, Maquoketa, Delaware County and Cedar Rapids. Paul is campaigning in central and western Iowa today and later this week. He has outgrown the Pizza Ranch restaurant scene.

During the past week, Paul's campaign has rolled out a number of endorsements from conservative clergy, including Davenport-based Reverend Christopher J. Neuendorf and Omaha-based pastor and Christian author Phil Kayser. (UPDATE: Paul's campaign scrubbed the Kayser press release from its website sometime on December 28, but you can read it here.) Here's an excerpt from Pella-based Reverend Brian Nolder's letter of support for Paul:

The idea of supporting Dr. Paul is pretty new to me. But the interest of many colleagues in my denomination (the Communion of Reformed Evangelical Churches; www.crechurches.org) in Dr. Paul, as well as the support of my former pastor, caused me to take a close look at the man and his ideas. Though they seem radical and out of the mainstream at first, careful study will show that they actually reflect the conservatism of our nation's founding fathers, our founding documents, and the first decades of our history. More importantly, they reflect biblical principles.
I support Dr. Paul because he wants people to be liberated from state dependence (perpetuated by a massive welfare state) and returned to dependence on God-through hard work, entrepreneurship, and enjoying the fruits of one's labor-and assistance from families, local communities, churches, and other private, charitable organizations. He has the most concrete plan to shrink the Leviathan of federal government, and he has the track record to show that he will do what he says. He wants to do exactly what the Constitution is designed to do, but which we have been moving away from for the past century: restrain the scope and size of government, particularly at the federal level. As a patriotic American who loves his country, it pains me to say that I have the growing sense that Uncle Sam-executive, legislative, and judicial-is more of an existential threat than Iran or any other foreign power is. Dr. Paul can help us reverse this trend.
As a Christian, I am also very concerned about the issue of human life, since each of us is uniquely made in the image of God. Dr. Paul has always been pro-life, refusing to practice abortions throughout his long career as an OB-GYN. He has written a book on the subject, and he signed the recently promulgated "personhood pledge" (www.personhoodusa.com), further indicating his support to use constitutional means to guarantee life and liberty to all people, even to the unborn.
Respect for life must not only extend to the unborn within our own land, but also to all people everywhere. I am concerned that our country has moved further and further away from the "just war" principles of the Christian tradition that used to inform so much of our foreign policy. While I am no pacifist, I am increasingly concerned about how quickly we seem to be resorting to violence to resolve international conflicts, and whether the "wars" we have recently been engaged in are truly just. Dr. Paul promises to return us to the modest, humble foreign policy that Gov. Bush articulated in the 2000 campaign. (This must be one of the reasons Dr. Paul receives more contributions from military servicemen and women than all other candidates combined.)

Paul has the most supporters on the Iowa GOP's State Central Committee (Drew Ivers, James Mills, A.J. Spiker, David Fischer and Jeremiah Johnson.) He also has thee Iowa House Republicans in his corner: Glen Massie, Kim Pearson, and Jason Schultz.

The mainstream media finally picked up on the racist Ron Paul newsletters from the 1990s. (I remember reading about that on various blogs in 2007.) I doubt many Iowa Republican caucus-goers will care about these comments. More likely, conservatives inclined to support Paul will buy his blame the offensive ghost writers defense.

Romney blew off Iowa for most of this year, but his campaign has spent more than a million dollars on Iowa ads during the month of December. This 60-second spot hits President Barack Obama on the economy:

That commercial is nothing special, in my opinion. This 30-second ad about the "moral responsibility" to cut government spending looks a lot stronger:

The Restore Our Future super-PAC, which is backing Romney, has been blasting Gingrich for weeks as part of a $2.86 million ad campaign in Iowa. One of the spots asserts that Obama's "plan" to destroy Romney and run against Gingrich is working. The narrator goes on to talk about the huge Gingrich "baggage."

I wonder whether the Romney supporters are getting a little nervous about Perry, because the latest Iowa ad from Restore Our Future attacks Perry as well as Gingrich:

Before the 2008 caucuses, Romney had by far the most endorsements from Iowa Republican elected officials. This year no campaign dominates the legislative endorsements. Romney has the public support of two state senators, Joni Ernst and Jim Hahn, and six Iowa House members: Mary Ann Hanusa, Stew Iverson, Linda Miller, Steve Olson, Renee Schulte, and Ralph Watts. Other prominent Romney supporters include former Governor Bob Ray and former Iowa House Speaker Chris Rants.

Romney hasn't put in as much time in Iowa as several of his competitors, but the two latest polls indicate that he has stopped the bleeding here. A second-place finish in the low 20s would be a respectable showing for him going into the New Hampshire primary, especially if Romney is significantly ahead of Gingrich on January 3.

Speaking of Gingrich, I can't help feeling a little schadenfreude to see the once-mighty bomb-thrower sink under a wave of attack ads. The small amount Gingrich has spent on television commercials this month has been dwarfed by attacks from Perry and the pro-Romney PAC. On the plus side for Gingrich, he appears in some commercials promoting Jerry Falwell's Liberty University, and Winning Our Future, a pro-Gingrich super-PAC, is spending $250,000 on this spot warning Iowans not to let the "liberal Republican establishment pick our candidate":

I am surprised by the number of Iowa elected officials who have endorsed Gingrich. Earlier this year, Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer and House Majority Whip Jeff Kaufmann became his Iowa co-chairs. His campaign announced a big batch of supporters on December 15, including four state senators (Randy Feenstra, David Johnson, Shawn Hamerlinck and James Seymour) and three more state representatives (Josh Byrnes, Chris Hagenow, and Bob Hager). Johnson had previously endorsed Rick Perry, while Hagenow had backed former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Side note: the college Republicans backing Gingrich include University of Iowa student Natalie Ginty, who got 15 minutes of fame this spring when a professor sent her a profane e-mail.

Gingrich held a special event last week to highlight his latest legislative endorsement. The candidate's slide in Iowa polls didn't deter Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen from coming out for Gingrich on December 21.

During a news conference at the Iowa statehouse, House Speaker Kraig Paulsen of Hiawatha compared Gingrich to Iowa Governor Terry Branstad as both, according to Paulsen, have an "intensity of purpose" after being out of elected office for over a decade.
"I think this should frighten the political elite and the insiders," Paulsen says. "Speaker Gingrich has been out of office for 13 years and he's had time to develop a plan to get Washington under control and has been able to develop his strategy and his tactics with both a sound understanding of both the theoretical and the practical."
Paulsen said Gingrich would take on the "power players" in Washington.
"He's a Washington outsider with a knowledge of how government operates and he is ready to shatter the 'D.C. Beltway' status quo with 'group-think' that is suffocating this country."

Of all the candidates, Texas Governor Perry has spent the most money on Iowa television advertising this month. The best ads for Perry feature other people speaking on his behalf. Bleeding Heartland posted one spot, featuring veterans, here. The governor's wife, Anita Perry, spoke to the camera in this commercial:

To my knowledge, Perry has no public supporters in the Iowa House or Senate. This site claims Senator David Johnson remains a Perry supporter, even though Johnson's name was on a Gingrich campaign press release of December 15. I will update this post if I am able to confirm or refute that claim.

Rick Santorum has done more retail campaigning in Iowa than the rest of the field, but he has had little cash to spend on advertising. The Red, White and Blue super-PAC supporting Santorum started running this positive ad, "True Conservative," in mid-December. It's solid but not creative:

The few commercials Santorum's campaign been able to buy focus on his biography and feature praise from well-known conservatives. Bleeding Heartland posted the video of Santorum's latest Iowa tv commercial here. The campaign started running this ad on television in mid-December:

Casual viewers might not realize that none of the conservatives "singing his praises" (Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, Mike Huckabee) has backed Santorum for president. Along the same lines, here's an excerpt from a new Santorum radio spot:

"Sarah Palin praised Santorum for protecting the sanctity of life. Mike Huckabee said he loves Santorum's conviction. And Rush Limbaugh said it would be great if Santorum became president. And Rick is endorsed by Iowa conservatives like Bob Vander Plaats and Sam Clovis."

You can listen to the whole radio commercial here. Incidentally, Sam Clovis is a popular talk radio host in Sioux City. Pastor Cary Gordon of the Sioux City megachurch Cornerstone World Outreach joined the Santorum bandwagon this month too.

Elected officials supporting Santorum include Secretary of State Matt Schultz, State Senators Rob Bacon and Tim Kapucian, and State Representatives Dawn Pettengill and Walt Rogers. In the summer, former first Congressional district Republican candidate Ben Lange went on record supporting Santorum.

The worst news for Santorum this week was that Representative Steve King did not endorse him after the two men went out to shoot pheasants together. It's increasingly looking like King will not endorse any candidate, but he did come out for Fred Thompson very late in December 2007. UPDATE: King posted this on his Twitter account December 28:

'08, Mike Huckabee won Iowa, in part, by pushing for a transformative tax plan-the Fair Tax. No candidate yet matches his '08 tax leadership

Makes you wonder why King didn't endorse Huckabee in 2008. Oh, I remember--Huckabee was too compassionate toward undocumented immigrants.

The second-worst news for Santorum was that Bob Vander Plaats' endorsement was immediately overshadowed by controversy. Santorum worked hard to get the FAMiLY Leader's endorsement. In the end, the organization decided to remain neutral while its leaders Vander Plaats and Chuck Hurley personally backed Santorum. But it's never a good thing when journalists start speculating on whether an endorsement was for sale. Shushannah Walshe and Michael Falcone reported for ABC News,

Less than 48-hours after receiving the backing of Bob Vander Plaats, the head of the prominent evangelical group The Family Leader, Santorum disclosed that the prominent Iowan told him he needed money to make the most out of the endorsement.
And sources familiar with talks between the conservative heavyweight and representatives from several of the Republican presidential campaigns went a step further, describing Vander Plaats' tactics as corrupt. [...]
It's a charge that The Family Leader flatly denied. [...]
But even Santorum acknowledged in an interview with CNN that money was among the topics he and Vander Plaats discussed last weekend ahead of Tuesday's endorsement press conference.
"What he talked about was he needed money to promote the endorsement and that that would be important to do that," Santorum told CNN. "There was never a direct ask for me to go out and raise money for it."
The former Pennsylvania senator's statement differs from what he told ABC News on Monday night - just hours before Vander Plaats endorsed him. At a campaign event in Indianola, Iowa, Santorum said the issue of money never came up in his conversations with the Christian leader.

Other news reports claimed Vander Plaats asked Bachmann to drop out of the race. On December 22 the FAMiLY Leader issued this "clarifying statement":

Pleasant Hill, IOWA. - The FAMiLY LEADER offers the following statement in order to clarify misrepresentations that have been circulating since the announcement of Bob Vander Plaats' and Chuck Hurley's personal endorsement of Senator Rick Santorum for the Republican presidential nomination on Tuesday, December 20th.
The perception that the FAMiLY LEADER Board of Directors was unable to reach agreement or did not achieve consensus on a candidate is completely false. The board had unanimous consensus 1) that The FAMiLY LEADER's role is as a standard bearer, not a kingmaker, 2) to allow Bob Vander Plaats and Chuck Hurley to personally endorse a candidate, and 3) that as of Monday, December 19th, each board member personally indicated support for Rick Santorum.
The FAMiLY LEADER board was unanimous in their personal support for Rick Santorum but opted not to endorse as an organization out of respect for many constituents that support candidates other than Rick Santorum. The board wanted to avoid offending any constituents who may be bothered by the possibility that their support to The FAMiLY LEADER may be used to promote a candidate the constituents themselves were not backing. However, the board is thankful they can allow a voice of leadership by permitting Bob Vander Plaats and Chuck Hurley to personally endorse Senator Santorum.
The allegation by an unnamed source that Bob Vander Plaats asked any campaigns for money in exchange for his endorsement is absolutely false.
The allegation that Bob Vander Plaats asked Congresswoman Michele Bachman to drop out of the race to join with Rick Santorum is completely false. The truth is that after much prayer and discernment, The FAMiLY LEADER board members directed Bob to contact Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Santorum to present the concept of merging in order to provide a solution to the fractured vote of caucus-going conservatives. The board's request is reflective of the broader caucus community. At no time did Mr. Vander Plaats make any specific demands in regard to who should merge with whom. The action to contact the campaigns was at the request of the board, not an action Vander Plaats initiated on his own.
Bob Vander Plaats, President & CEO, said, "It is disheartening to learn about the misrepresentations and half-truths being circulated among the media and among fellow conservatives. I encourage all conservatives to show the utmost respect for each other as the voters of Iowa help determine the next presidential nominee."

You have to wonder whether the Vander Plaats endorsement was more trouble than it's worth to Santorum.

It would be outrageous if Vander Plaats did ask Bachmann to leave the race. She has been ahead of Santorum in most Iowa polls and has no reason to defer to him. Bachmann's campaign hasn't picked up a lot of momentum, despite what I consider strong debate performances earlier this month. She ran zero television commercials in Iowa between August and this week. Her campaign did release a pair of Iowa web ads featuring testimonials from "ordinary people" this month. Supposedly those will air on television during the final days before the caucuses; I will update the post if I can confirm that.

Most of Bachmann's high-profile endorsers in Iowa came on board during the summer, when her campaign was gaining strength. But two weeks ago Merlin buy my fence Bartz announced his support for the woman he called "the only consistent conservative courageous candidate in this race." Five other GOP Iowa senators endorsed Bachmann earlier this year: Nancy Boettger, Mark Chelgren, Kent Sorenson, Jack Whitver and Brad Zaun. State Representatives Mark Brandenburg and Betty de Boef are also in her camp. She has to be disappointed not to have the endorsement of her good friend and "tea party caucus" member Steve King.

Social conservatives for Bachmann include Iowa GOP State Central Committee member Wes Enos and former State Representative Danny Carroll, who used to be in charge of the Iowa Family Policy Center. Jeff Mullen, the lead pastor at the Point of Grace Church in Waukee and a GOP candidate in Iowa Senate district 22, endorsed Bachmann shortly before the Ames straw poll in August.

Bachmann has been campaigning intensely in Iowa this month. She is getting lots of local media coverage on these marathon days (ten stops on December 22 and eleven on December 27). On the down side, she tends to run late and spends very little time interacting with each audience. It probably didn't help her that there's a three-week gap between the final Iowa debate and the caucuses.

Any comments about the Republican presidential race are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Here's the latest Ron Paul ad, contrasting his principles with Gingrich's "serial hypocrisy" and Romney's flip-flopping:

SECOND UPDATE: A CNN/Time/ORC poll of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers found Romney slightly ahead of Paul, with Santorum gaining fast:

Romney 25 percent
Paul 22 percent
Santorum 16 percent
Gingrich 13 percent
Perry 11 percent
Bachmann 9 percent
Huntsman 1 percent

I don't know the party ID numbers for the 452 likely caucus-goers in CNN's sample. The poll was in the field from December 21 through 24 and December 26 and 27. Full results, questionnaire and cross-tabs are here (pdf).

THURSDAY UPDATE: Steve King told Newsmax today that it's "less likely" he will endorse a candidate before the Iowa caucuses:

"I'm still hopeful that there will be a way that I can come to a conviction but it must be a conviction. It is not good enough to pull a name out of a hat or just make an endorsement that is not one that is grounded in the brain and in the gut."

King said he considers Gingrich a better candidate against Obama than Romney, he prefers Santorum to Paul, and he prefers Perry to Huntsman.