Bleeding Heartland - ia-01

New IA-01 candidate speculation thread

desmoinesdem — Fri, 17 May 2013 12:10:00 GMT

It's time for a new thread on the open first Congressional district seat. So far former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate. Former State Senator Swati Dandekar formed an exploratory committee last week. State Senator Jeff Danielson of the Cedar Falls/Waterloo area has said he's keeping his options open. I expect a decision relatively soon after the legislative session wraps up.

Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon "is nearly ready to announce" her candidacy, Rick Smith reported. She was first elected to the council in 2007, switched parties in 2009, and was re-elected in 2011. Cedar Rapids plaintiff's attorney Dave O'Brien may also run, Jennifer Jacobs reported. O'Brien's background is similar to Bruce Braley's before his first campaign in 2006.

State Representative Tyler Olson, who also chairs the Iowa Democratic Party, hasn't ruled out running for Congress, but some Polk County Democrats believe that if he runs for higher office next year, it will be against Governor Terry Branstad.

On the Republican side, Cedar Rapids business owner Steve Rathje and Dubuque business owner Rod Blum are already seeking the nomination in IA-01. Once the legislature adjourns for the year, my hunch is that a Republican lawmaker will join the race. State Representative Walt Rogers of the Cedar Falls/Waterloo area confirmed earlier this year that he's thinking about it.

The Iowa Republican's Kevin Hall reported last month that former Secretary of State and Cedar Rapids Mayor Paul Pate is "90 percent" likely to run for office in 2014. I think Pate would be a strong general election candidate but might have trouble winning an IA-01 GOP primary. It's also possible that he may run for Secretary of State again if Matt Schultz goes for the open U.S. Senate seat.

Current Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett is running for re-election and seems to have ruled out the IA-01 race, judging from his recent comments to Todd Dorman.

After the jump I've posted the latest voter registration numbers for the 20 counties in IA-01. Linn County is the largest by population, but it doesn't dominate the district. About 30 percent of the registered Democrats, 28 percent of the Republicans, and 27 percent of the no-party voters in IA-01 live in Linn County.
The voter registration totals come from the Iowa Secretary of State's website.

Active voter registration numbers as of May 2013

IA-01

County	Democrats	Republicans	no-party voters
Allamakee	2,194	4,263	3,096
Benton	4,622	4,965	7,409
Black Hawk	29,053	20,583	31,781
Bremer	3,796	5,015	7,326
Buchanan	3,842	3,129	6,364
Clayton	3,403	3,244	4,751
Delaware	2,573	3,828	4,922
Dubuque	24,909	14,774	22,553
Fayette	3,718	4,082	4,124
Howard	1,878	1,443	2,495
Iowa	2,774	3,669	4,764
Jackson	5,656	2,605	5,386
Jones	3,540	3,670	5,911
Linn	49,666	37,948	52,303
Marshall	7,379	7,477	8,937
Mitchell	1,783	2,495	2,662
Poweshiek	3,704	3,655	5,010
Tama	3,360	3,394	4,472
Winnishiek	3,543	4,465	5,119
Worth	1,515	1,749	1,942

total	162,908	136,453	191,327

IA-01: Don't freak out, organize

desmoinesdem — Wed, 15 May 2013 22:43:00 GMT

Apparently there was some contentious Facebook discussion about whether the Iowa Democratic Party would or should support Swati Dandekar if she wins next year's primary to represent Iowa's first Congressional district.

What a waste of energy.

I am not convinced Dandekar will run for Congress, and if she runs, I doubt she will win the IA-01 primary. Several core Democratic constituencies have a problem with her, and I don't see any outpouring of support. At this writing, six days after Dandekar confirmed that she is considering the race, the Facebook page for her exploratory committee has only five "likes." I don't see her path to beating Pat Murphy or some other Democrat who may join the race later. Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon is leaning towards running, Rick Smith reported for the Cedar Rapids Gazette.

Instead of fretting over an unlikely scenario in IA-01, progressives with a grudge against conservadems should recruit a strong primary challenger to Joe Seng in Iowa Senate district 45. His voting record is worse than Dandekar's, and he's gotten some horrible legislation passed. Senate district 45, based in Davenport, is safe for Democrats in the general election.

IA-01: Swati Dandekar forms exploratory committee (updated)

desmoinesdem — Fri, 10 May 2013 02:21:00 GMT

Former State Senator Swati Dandekar confirmed today that she is considering a campaign in Iowa's open first Congressional district. State Senator Wally Horn of Cedar Rapids and Tina Patterson of Marion will co-chair her exploratory committee. Dandekar expects to decide this summer whether to run for Congress. In the meantime, she will continue serving on the Iowa Utilities Board but will "not participate in decisions of any contested matters before the board."

Bleeding Heartland discussed Dandekar's potential strengths and weaknesses as a candidate here. I remain skeptical that she would win a Democratic primary, because of her legislative voting record and her decision to put the Iowa Senate majority in jeopardy in 2011, when she accepted Governor Terry Branstad's appointment to the Iowa Utilities Board. Dandekar emphasized in a statement today, " I know it is important to the people living in Northeast Iowa to continue the strong representation established by Congressman Bruce Braley. We must keep this seat in Democratic hands."

So far State Representative Pat Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate in IA-01. Any comments about this race are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Added reaction from Murphy, details about the online presence of Dandekar's exploratory committee, and the potential candidate's official bio after the jump.
James Q. Lynch of the Cedar Rapids Gazette sought comment from Murphy on yesterday's news:

Murphy insists he's not concerned with who else might run for the Democratic nomination.
"Worry is a wasted emotion," he said. Murphy has been concentrating on building his campaign on the long-time relationships he has built across the 20-county district over years of candidate recruitment and fund-raising for those candidates and the party.
Rep. Tyler Olson, D-Cedar Rapids, Iowa Democratic Party chairman and a potential candidate himself, expects at least three to four candidates in a June 2014 primary.

If Olson runs for Congress, he needs to step down immediately as state party chair.

Dandekar's exploratory committee has a website up here and is on twitter and Facebook. Here is the official bio from the exploratory committee's website.

Swati Dandekar of Marion, Iowa was first elected to the Iowa House of Representatives in 2002. She served the Marion, Iowa area in that capacity until she was elected to represent them in the Iowa Senate in 2009. She served as chair of the Senate Commerce Committee, vice chair of the Economic Development Budget subcommittee and was elected President of the National Foundation of Women Legislators in 2011.
In 2011 Dandekar was appointed the Democratic member of the Iowa Utilities Board by Governor Terry Branstad. She is a member of the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) and serves on the NARUC Committee on Telecommunications and the Committee on International Relations. She is also a member of the Mid-American Regulatory Conference and serves on the Advisory Council of the Iowa Energy Center in Ames. In addition, Dandekar serves on the advisory board of the National Science Foundation's Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research, is a member of the Federal-State Joint Conference on Advance Telecommunications Services and on the board of directors for the Smart Grid Interoperability Panel.
Dandekar holds a bachelor's degree in biology and chemistry from Nagpur University and a post-graduate diploma in dietetics from Bombay University in India. She served on the Linn-Mar School Board, the Iowa Association of School Boards, Vision Iowa Board, U.S. Center for Citizen Diplomacy, Iowa Math and Science Coalition, Greater Cedar Rapids Foundation, Belin-Blank International Center for Gifted and Talented, Iowa Innovation Council, and Iowa Public Health Commission.
Honors bestowed upon Dandekar include the 2000 J.C. Penney Education Golden Rule Award, India Abroad 2002 Person of the Year, 2003 Pillar of the Community Award from Waypoint, Asian Alliance of Iowa 2003 Person of the Year, 2004 Flemming Institute Fellow, Iowa's 2006 Passport to Prosperity Award, and Asian Week's 2008 Asia Pacific American Person of the Year.
Swati and her husband, Arvind, reside in Marion, Iowa. They have two sons, Ajai with wife, Allison, and sons Evan and William, as well as Govind, his wife Shaneeda and daughter Ayaana.

IA-01: Steve Rathje's fiscal management to be tested

desmoinesdem — Fri, 26 Apr 2013 13:40:00 GMT

Republican Steve Rathje announced this week that he has hired staff for his campaign in Iowa's first Congressional district. The press release enclosed below contains background on campaign manager Doug Wagner and field director Taylor Nelson. Rathje also rolled out a steering committee of "30 people from all walks of life" who "either live in the 1st District, have employees who live here, or do business and serve people here." Those names are after the jump as well.

Hiring staff more than a year before the 2014 Republican primary is risky for Rathje. His campaign raised about $51,500 during the first quarter, but more than half of that total came from six donors who each contributed the maximum $5,200 ($2,600 for the primary election and $2,600 for the general election). Rathje's campaign reported $31,082.87 cash on hand as of March 31, but $15,600 of that amount is restricted for use during the 2014 general election campaign. He can't spend that money trying to defeat Rod Blum and/or other Republicans who may declare in IA-01 later.

Rathje will either need to broaden his donor base or loan his campaign lots of money in order to keep paying staff for the next 13 months. Since Blum had a strong showing in the 2012 GOP primary to represent IA-01, Rathje should save some resources for direct mail, radio or television advertising next spring too.
Rathje for Congress press release, April 22:

1st Congressional District GOP Candidate Rathje Draws Together Campaign Organization and Announces Endorsements
Steve Rathje, Candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives seat representing the 1st District of Iowa, announced his campaign organization for the 2014 election.
"I am proud to have the support of so many people in my run for Congress," Rathje said. "I've been listening to Iowans and I see what is going on both in Iowa and across the country. These conversations strengthen my resolve to win this race and go to Washington as someone who will focus on job creation, the economy and increasing take home pay. Everyday, in my business, I am working hard to get our economy back on track by bringing manufacturing and jobs back home."
Rathje also announced the names of the Rathje for Congress Steering Committee, saying, "I am proud that this group-these 30 people from all walks of life-have agreed to assist me, and I am thankful for their leadership." Members of the Rathje for Congress Steering Committee include:
John Armon-Professional, Industrial and Commercial Construction
Virginia Bailey-(Retired) Rockwell Collins
Bill Becker-CEO, Comweb International
Dave Brown-President and CEO, Modern Piping
George Cramer-Senior Shareholder, Cramer and Associates
Kurt Croell-President and CEO, Croell Redi-Mix
Jeff Elgin-President, J&P Elgin
Chuck Finnegan-CEO, L.L. Pelling Asphalt Paving Company
Mark Hanrahan-CEO, MidAmerica Aerospace
Matt Horsfield-President, Horsfield Companies
Brad Loney-Executive, Intertrade Steel and Triton Manufacturing
Wieslaw Machinowski, M.D.-Pediatrician
Bill McClelland-President, UR Relay
Angie McClure, Director of Community Relations, The Views Senior Living Center
John Morgan-Financial Advisor, Mutual of Omaha
Sid Morris-Retired Administrator, University of Northern Iowa
Leon Mosley-Past Chair, Republican Party of Iowa
Gene Munier-Linn County Farmer
Dr. Gene Nassif, D.P.M.-Principal, Foot and Ankle Specialists of Iowa
Jim Neiman-CEO, Paul Neiman Construction
Dr. M.N. Payvandi-M.D.-Cardiologist
John Peterson-CEO, Amana Society
Bob Rathje-President, Rathje Construction
Mary Rathje-Executive, Rathje Construction
John Roetlin-CEO, Kalona Cheese Factory
Charlie Rohde-President, King's Materials
John Sadler-CEO, Sadler Power Train
Dave Streb-President and CEO, Streb Construction
James Unzeitig-Vice President, Unzeitig Construction
Bill Wirth-Independent Insurance Broker
"Each of these people either live in the 1st District, have employees who live here, or do business and serve people here," Rathje noted. "They understand, first hand, that the promised economic recovery has not materialized and they want to work with a candidate who has solutions. I'm running for Congress and my broad based support is because people are tired of all of the political infighting, both within the Republican Party and in Washington. People are asking for someone to step forward who can focus on creating or finding solutions for our problems rather than just getting stuck on the problems."
Mr. Rathje, whose campaign reported over $50,000 in fundraising in 40 days during the 1st quarter, announced several prominent endorsements of former military leaders, as well. "These retired Generals and current Fox News Analysts stand with me and my desire to increase the strength of our nation's military and responsibly carry out the defense of our country," said Rathje. The individuals who have endorsed Rathje include:
Rathje announced endorsements of former military leaders:
Lt. Gen. Tom McInerney, US Air Force, Ret.
Maj. Gen. Paul E. Vallely, US Army, Ret.
Brigadier Gen. Jimmy Cash, US Air Force, Ret.
In addition, Rathje also announced additions to his campaign staff of Doug Wagner as Campaign Manager and Taylor Nelson as Field Director. Wagner has served as campaign manager of the successful referendum for the funding of Veterans Memorial Stadium, as Press Secretary to former First District Congressman, Jim Leach (1997-2000), and as Chief of Staff to the Mayor and Executive Assistant to the City Council for the City of Cedar Rapids (2002-2006). In addition to having run for Cedar Rapids City Council, Nelson has served as founder and president of both the Kirkwood College Republicans (2009-2011) and Linn County College Republicans (beginning 2011).

Bruce Braley explains his support for Keystone XL

desmoinesdem — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 14:45:00 GMT

Last week, Representative Bruce Braley (D, IA-01) voted for a bill that would force the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline. He did not send out any press release explaining that vote.

A Bleeding Heartland reader contacted Braley about his support for Keystone XL and shared the congressman's reply. I've posted it after the jump, along with information challenging some of Braley's assertions.

Hi [name],
I understand your concerns regarding the Keystone XL pipeline project. This is an important issue and I'm glad you have shared your views with me.
As you know, pipeline infrastructure is not only a key component of transporting energy, but an opportunity for job creation. The Keystone XL Pipeline, which was supported by a majority of Iowans in a recent Pew Charitable Trusts survey, would provide Iowans with $465 million in wages and benefits over the next 25 years.
With 41,110 miles of pipeline running through every one of our state's 99 counties, Iowans are no strangers to pipeline infrastructure. With our own state in mind, I have supported Keystone XL as long it meets all environmental and safety requirements, and it's done with the input of people living in the affected area.
While Keystone XL will be good for our economy, I voted for a number of amendments to improve the bill, including amendments that would require TransCanada to offset any additional greenhouse gas emissions, require the President to sign off on air protection plans, and that would keep oil transported through Keystone XL in the U.S. for domestic purposes. I also voted for amendments to require the courts to deal with property rights issues before construction begins and allow individuals to go to court in the most appropriate circuit if they feel their private property has been infringed upon.
I also support improvements that would ensure that Native American tribes and cultural and sacred sites are protected, require that the Secretary of Transportation deem the infrastructure safe before a pipeline is built, and guarantee that Keystone XL will reduce gas prices for Americans.
Finally, the U.S. State Department recently performed an Environmental Impact Study, concluding that construction of the Keystone Pipeline would not have a significant impact on global warming, as refusing pipeline construction will have no impact on the amount of oil extracted from Canadian oil sands. While this study carries weight, I also am doing what I can to make sure this is indeed the case - such as supporting the amendments requiring that any additional greenhouse gas emissions be offset. I will continue to weigh this issue, and help make sure that we are doing what's best for Iowa's economy, but doing it in the most thoughtful ways.
Thank you for contacting me.

A few points are worth remembering:

Independent analysts dispute the job creation estimates offered by supporters of Keystone XL.

The State Department's draft supplemental environmental impact statement on Keystone XL has some glaring problems:

Experts who helped draft the report had previously worked for TransCanada, the company looking to build the Keystone pipeline, and other energy companies poised to benefit from Keystone's construction. State released documents in conjunction with the Keystone report in which these experts' work histories were redacted so that anyone reading the documents wouldn't know who'd previously hired them. Yet unredacted versions of these documents obtained by Mother Jones confirm that three experts working for an outside contractor had done consulting work for TransCanada and other oil companies with a stake in the Keystone's approval.

Incredibly, statistician David Malitz found that the State Department's draft supplemental environmental impact statement failed to calculate the expected size and rate of oil spills per pipeline mile per year. Spills like the one in Arkansas, which recently made national news, would be extremely costly in economic and health terms. Malitz found

that based upon reported historical industry experience, we would expect about 1.9 spill incidents per year from the 875 mile proposed pipeline, with an average total spill volume per year of 805 barrels (almost 34,000 gallons). About 1/8 of these incidents on average (0.126) would be "large" (the SEIS classified spills of 1,000 to 20,000 barrels as "large").
Over a longer time span, say a decade, we would expect about 19 spill incidents with an aggregate spill volume of about 8,000 barrels, enough to fill about half of an Olympic-sized swimming pool. We would expect about 1.3 of these spills to be "large," which means that on average we would expect a "large" spill to occur about once every 8 years or so. Clearly, based upon reported historical industry performance, spills in general and large spills in particular would not be a rare occurrence for the proposed pipeline.

Braley did support the amendments he cited above, which were intended to protect the environment, public safety, public health, and property rights. He failed to mention that the House Energy and Commerce Committee rejected every single one of those amendments. Braley then voted to approve the bill anyway (pdf containing roll call). Most of the Democrats on the committee opposed the bill.

Braley claims to support "improvements that would ensure that Native American tribes and cultural and sacred sites are protected," but there is no record of his vote on a rejected amendment that would have done so. He also did not vote on a failed amendment that would have delayed implementation of the bill "unless the Energy and Commerce Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives finds that operation of the Keystone XL pipeline is projected to reduce gasoline prices in the United States." (Supporters don't want to admit that Keystone XL is likely to increase domestic gasoline prices.)

Braley supports keeping tar sands oil transported through Keystone XL in the U.S., but even supporters of the pipeline admit that much of the oil would be exported after being processed in American refineries.

Braley writes in the e-mail posted above, "I have supported Keystone XL as long it meets all environmental and safety requirements, and it's done with the input of people living in the affected area." But the bill he voted for would explicitly shut down any further environmental and safety reviews before the pipeline is built.

Braley writes that he supports "amendments requiring that any additional greenhouse gas emissions be offset." Any such amendment is doomed to fail when the full House of Representatives considers this bill, probably sometime next month. In any case, there is no realistic way to offset emissions on this scale: "The 181 million metric tons of (CO2e) from Keystone XL is equivalent to the tailpipe emissions from more than 37.7 million cars."

A different Bleeding Heartland reader informed me that Braley's staff in Washington told environmental advocates last week that the congressman had "heard a lot" from the Laborers Union and other organized labor voices in support of Keystone XL. The organized labor movement is quick to denounce corporate propaganda regarding certain public policies on wages and benefits. I would like to see more healthy skepticism when corporations exaggerate the number of jobs that could be created by environmentally devastating projects.

IA-01: Swati Dandekar speculation thread

desmoinesdem — Wed, 24 Apr 2013 12:55:00 GMT

Former State Representative and State Senator Swati Dandekar is reportedly considering a bid for the open first Congressional district seat.
Dandekar was elected twice to the Linn-Mar school board and later served three terms in the Iowa House, representing a suburban Linn County district. In 2008 she was elected to an open Iowa Senate seat covering Marion and other parts of the Cedar Rapids suburbs. She resigned before the end of her first term to accept Governor Terry Branstad's appointment to the Iowa Utilities Board, throwing control of the Iowa Senate in jeopardy.

Democrat Liz Mathis ended up winning the 2011 special election for Dandekar's seat. In retrospect, many Democrats would consider that an upgrade, since Mathis was barely challenged in her 2012 re-election bid and (unlike Dandekar) is not considered one of the conservatives in the Senate Democratic caucus.

James Q. Lynch reported for the Cedar Rapids Gazette yesterday that there's a "coming soon" notice on the website SwatiDandekarforIowa.com. He quoted Dandekar's friend and former campaign treasurer, Charlie Kress, as saying "a lot of people are pushing" Dandekar to run for the open Congressional seat.

Kress has met with the Dandekars to discuss a congressional campaign. He believes Dandekar is interested, but probably won't announce her candidacy until late summer or fall. In the meantime, she's fielding calls from people within the 20-county district as well as politicos in Washington, Kress said.

Speaking to Lynch, former Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge put a positive spin on a Dandekar candidacy:

"She's certainly proven in the past to be a good campaigner and a better fundraiser than many," Judge said. "She has the capacity to put a campaign together and it would be great to have her in the race.
"She would be a strong candidate, a moderate Democrat who has been true to her convictions and the people she represented," Judge said. [...]
For Judge, part of Dandekar's appeal is her potential to break the glass political ceiling in Iowa. It is one of a handful of states never to elect a woman to Congress.
So Dandekar's gender would be a positive, Judge said.
"I'm certainly interested in finding a strong woman for that seat," Judge said. "The kind of support she could draw, she might be a stronger candidate than people think."

Dandekar did not respond to my request for comment last month about a possible Congressional bid. Todd Dorman is skeptical that she would give up a seat on the Iowa Utilities Board to run for Congress, but I don't think she would need to give up that position during the campaign--only if elected.

I am highly skeptical that Dandekar could win a Democratic primary in IA-01. Linn County has the largest population of the 20 counties, but it doesn't dominate the Congressional district by any means. Many Democrats won't forgive Dandekar for taking a job offer from Branstad when Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal was our main firewall against Branstad's policy agenda.

Environmentally-minded primary voters won't appreciate Dandekar's work to promote Mid-American Energy's nuclear power bill during the 2011 legislative session. The AARP in Iowa also lobbied strongly against the nuclear bill.

Pro-equality Democratic voters won't appreciate Dandekar's 2005 Iowa House vote for a state constitutional amendment that would have banned not only same-sex marriage but also civil unions (read the full text here). The amendment passed the Iowa House by 54 votes to 44, with support from almost all of the Republicans and seven Democrats (Dandekar, Dolores Mertz, Mike Reasoner, Brian Quirk, Wayne Ford, Paul Shomshor, Kurt Swaim).

In fairness to Dandekar, she did not come out for a constitutional amendment on marriage after the Iowa Supreme Court's 2009 decision in Varnum v Brien. Several other Senate Democrats went out of their way at that time to say they opposed same-sex marriage, including Joe Seng, Jack Kibbie, and Tom Hancock. Hancock even signed a discharge petition trying to get a Senate floor vote on a marriage amendment.

Any relevant thoughts are welcome in this thread.

Iowa Congressional fundraising 1Q news roundup (updated)

desmoinesdem — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 12:15:00 GMT

April 15 was the deadline for Congressional candidates to file reports on their fundraising and expenditures for the first quarter of 2013. Details on all of the Iowa incumbents and some other declared candidates are after the jump. At this writing, not every report has been posted on the Federal Elections Commission website. I will update this post as more information becomes available.
U.S. Senate

For reasons I don't understand, campaign finance reports from U.S. Senate candidates are not posted on the FEC's website. Bruce Braley's campaign released a four-page summary yesterday. Braley transferred $179,000 from his U.S. House re-election campaign (Braley for Congress) to his Senate campaign (Braley for Iowa). In addition, Braley for Iowa raised $682,980 from individuals and $173,895.92 from political action committees (PACs). The campaign did not report any contributions from the candidate or from political party committees.

I am seeking a copy of Braley's FEC filing so that I can see the full list of individual and PAC donations. At this writing, the Braley campaign has not made that document available. A press release on April 15 noted, "the campaign has received contributions from donors in all 99 counties in the state of Iowa."

Braley for Iowa reported $31,269.28 in operating expenditures during the first quarter, leaving $1,004,606.64 cash on hand as of March 31. No question, it's a solid start for a statewide campaign, though it may be hard for Braley to keep up that fundraising pace in subsequent quarters. I would guess that the "usual suspects" among major Iowa Democratic donors have maxed out already (which is one reason I would like to view the full FEC filing).

LATE UPDATE: Braley's full report for the first quarter is here (very large pdf). Itemized individual donations take up nearly 500 pages of that document. Several dozen donors have already "maxed out" with contributions totaling $5,200, and a few dozen others have given the maximum contribution of $2,600 for a primary campaign. That said, I do not believe Braley is anywhere close to depleting the pool of major Iowa Democratic donors, not to mention trial attorneys living in other states (a source of many large campaign gifts so far). A large number of donors have given between $250 and $1,000 already, and I would expect many of those to give again before the 2014 election.

The list of PAC donors to Braley for Iowa in the first quarter runs from pages 497 to 517. It's a typical mix for a Democratic candidate, representing corporations, labor unions, and some progressive advocacy groups.

Braley's cash on hand won't intimidate any well-connected potential GOP candidates. Probably a dozen Republicans in this state could raise a million dollars for a U.S. Senate bid quickly. The worrying factor for Republicans is that a competitive primary will likely drain the eventual nominee's funds, allowing Braley to build a big money lead going into next year's general election campaign.

IA-01

Braley for Congress reported raising $214,955 during the first three months of 2013, of which $65,455 came from individuals and $149,500 from PACs. Looking at the list of contributions to Braley's IA-01 re-election campaign, you can see that all of the donations came on or before February 7, when Braley launched his U.S. Senate bid.

Braley for Congress reported $81,811.86 in operating expenditures during the first quarter. The largest payments were for fundraising and consulting services. After transferring $179,000 to the Braley for Iowa Senate campaign, Braley for Congress had $5,636.30 cash on hand as of March 31.

Pat Murphy for Iowa, the only current Democratic campaign to succeed Braley, declared $68,070 in contributions for the first quarter of 2013. Of that amount, $7,545 came from the candidate, and $60,275 came from other individuals ($40,139 itemized, $20,136 in small gifts that were not itemized). You can view the full list of Murphy donors here. Iowa Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal kicked in $250, as did quite a few current and former Iowa House Democrats (John Forbes, Curt Hanson, Roger Thomas, Helen Miller, Andrew Wenthe, Paul Shomshor, Dick Taylor, John Wittneben, Ray Zirkelbach). State Representative Mary Gaskill gave $300, and a few of Murphy's onetime Iowa House colleagues gave $500 each: State Representatives Mark Smith and Dan Muhlbauer, retired State Representative Polly Bukta, and State Senator Janet Petersen. Former gubernatorial candidate Mike Blouin gave $300. The only PAC donation to Murphy's Congressional campaign was $250 from the CenturyLink employees' PAC.

Murphy's campaign reported spending just $8,202.80 during the first quarter, leaving $59,867.20 cash on hand as of March 31. That's a fraction of what Murphy would need to raise for a successful campaign, but it's a head start. I imagine that a lot of the Democratic donors in IA-01 are sitting tight, waiting for the Congressional field to take shape.

Two Republicans have declared their candidacies in IA-01: Steve Rathje and Rod Blum. At this writing I don't see financial reports from either of them on the FEC's website. Rathje announced on Twitter that his campaign raised $51,515 between February 20 and March 31.

UPDATE: Rathje reported $51,506.63 in contributions during the first quarter, all from individuals. More than half the money he raised came from six donors who each contributed the maximum $5,200. But only $2,600 from any individual donor can be used during a primary campaign. In other words, $15,600 of what Rathje raised can't be used unless and until he wins the 2014 Republican primary.

Rathje's campaign spent $20,423.76, leaving $31,082.87 cash on hand as of March 31. Most of the expenditures went toward consulting, branding, and website design; $4,000 went to the candidate, but it's not clear what he was being reimbursed for. About half of the Rathje campaign's cash on hand is restricted for use during a general election campaign (if he wins the Republican primary).

LATE UPDATE: As of April 25, I still cannot find any first quarter financial report from Rod Blum's campaign on the FEC website. Blum has not responded to my request for comment on whether he filed a report. Perhaps his campaign didn't raise or spend enough to require a quarterly filing. Seven individual donors are thanked on the front page of his campaign website.

APRIL 25 UPDATE: According to Erin Murphy of the Dubuque Telegraph-Herald, Blum's campaign filed organizing papers with the FEC after the April quarterly reporting deadline. Consequently, his first financial disclosure report will cover the second quarter of 2013.

IA-02

Four-term Democratic incumbent Dave Loebsack has never been a powerhouse fundraiser. The latest filing looks like a typical quarter for him: $104,222.13 in total contributions and $27,288.12 in expenditures, leaving $100,710.79 cash on hand as of March 31. As usual, Loebsack raised a lot more from PACs ($66,250) than from individuals ($37,972.13, of which $19,325 were itemized). You can view all the Loebsack for Congress donors during the first quarter here. I noticed that State Senator Joe Seng donated $250, which presumably means he's not planning another primary challenge in IA-02. (Loebsack defeated Seng in the 2012 Democratic primary with about 81.5 percent of the vote.) The PAC donors to Loebsack were a mix of corporate and labor groups, plus $2,500 from Senator Tom Harkin's TOM-PAC.

To my knowledge, no Republican has announced plans to run against Loebsack in 2014. His 2012 opponent, John Archer, filed a termination report for his campaign in January.

IA-03

Ten-term Republican incumbent Tom Latham showed why it's good to be an Appropriations subcommittee chairman. With hardly any apparent effort, his campaign raised $300,750 during the first quarter, of which more than 90 percent ($279,000) came from PACs.

Latham's campaign raised just $21,650 from individuals during the first three months of the year. Your unintentional comedy for the week comes from Jennifer Jacobs' report for the Des Moines Register.

Only one Iowa resident is listed as a donor - Bruce Kelley, an executive with EMC Insurance - but aides said that's because Latham was focused on governing and didn't actively solicit donations in Iowa.
There are three other donations from Iowa addresses, but two are political action committees ($2,000 from Principal Life Insurance Co. PAC and $5,000 from the Rain & Hail Insurance Society PAC), and one is from a county party ($100 from the Humboldt County GOP).

So focused on governing, no time to have staff send a form letter to a mailing list! At least Latham had plenty of time to cash those PAC checks.

Latham's largest expenditures during the reporting period were $50,000 to the National Republican Congressional Committee and a little less than that amount to the Republican Party of Iowa's federal account. His campaign ended the quarter with $284,348.20 cash on hand, an amount that will multiply several times by the fall of 2014. That may be one reason former State Senator Staci Appel just decided not to run against Latham in 2014.

Democrat Mike Sherzan launched a campaign in IA-03 in February but more recently announced that he was quitting the race for health reasons. He actually had a decent fundraising quarter for a first-time candidate. He loaned his own campaign $140,000, and Sherzan for Congress raised another $85,280 from individuals. Sherzan plans to return all campaign contributions to the donors.

The only current Democratic challenger in IA-03, Gabriel De La Cerda, has not raised enough funds yet to file an FEC disclosure report. Bleeding Heartland will discuss De La Cerda's campaign in an upcoming post.

IA-04

Six-term incumbent Steve King has been raising money off standing up to Karl Rove and the evil establishment, so I was expecting to see a big haul for his re-election campaign. However, King for Congress reported raising just $78,072 from individuals, $250 from political party committees, and $14,877.45 from PACs during the first quarter. His campaign refunded $6,000 to donors, leaving $87,199.45 in net contributions. King's campaign reported $84,175.17 in operating expenditures during the period, plus $47,500 to the National Republican Congressional Committee. King for Congress had $90,148.51 cash on hand as of March 31.

King has previously said the ability to raise money for a statewide race will be one factor affecting his analysis of a possible U.S. Senate bid. I'm telling you, this man will not run for the Senate.

Democrat Jim Mowrer is reportedly planning to run in IA-04 next year, but he has not formed a campaign officially or filed an FEC report.

IA-01: Pat Murphy rolls out long endorsement list

desmoinesdem — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 18:15:00 GMT

State Representative Pat Murphy's Congressional campaign released a list today of more than 150 Democrats who support the former Iowa House speaker's bid to replace Bruce Braley in the U.S. House. The full list is after the jump, along with a statement from the campaign. Murphy has public support from one current Iowa Senate Democrat (Brian Schoenjahn), three current Iowa House Democrats (Roger Thomas, Mark Smith, and Bruce Bearinger), six former state representatives (Gene Ficken, John Beard, Tom Schueller, Dick Taylor, Kay Halloran, and Deo Koenigs) and two former state senators (Bob Carr and Mike Connolly). Other prominent endorsers include former U.S. Representative Dave Nagle, several union leaders, and eleven county supervisors.

Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate in Iowa's first district so far. His campaign raised about $68,000 between mid-February and the end of March, including more than $60,000 in contributions from individuals other than the candidate. A forthcoming Bleeding Heartland post will cover Iowa Congressional fundraising during the first quarter in more detail.

For Immediate Release: April 15, 2012
Pat Murphy shows broad support across First Congressional District
Former Speaker of the Iowa House Pat Murphy released his first quarterly financial report and list public endorsements. After announcing his intention to run for Iowa's open First Congressional district, Murphy has already received donations from hundreds of Iowans and public endorsements from over 150 elected officials, community leaders, and party activists from all twenty counties in the first congressional district.
In only forty days of fundraising, between Murphy's announcement and the end of the first quarter fundraising deadline, Murphy's campaign has already raised nearly $70,000.
"I have been overwhelmed by the generous support from people all across Iowa." Murphy said "My campaign is about fighting for the middle class, so I'm pleased to have support from so many hard working Iowans."
Murphy also released a list of over 150 endorsers from all across the first district. The list includes current and former state legislators, union officials, county supervisors, Democratic Party leaders, community activists, and members of the business community.
Murphy has strong ties to all parts of the district from his twenty-four year career as a state representative and his work as Democratic Leader and Speaker of the house, when he worked to help elected Democratic candidates across the state.
"I've fought with many of these Democrats over the last twenty-four years to ensure middle class families get a fair shake." Murphy said.

Pat Murphy's endorsers, by county

Allamakee

Linda Burke, Small business owner
Karen Pratte, Democratic activist
Ann Kless, Democratic activist
Lenny Burke, County Supervisor
Jim Mellick, Attorney

Benton

Rosemary Schwartz, Democratic activist
Duane Eldred, Democratic activist
Janice Eldred, Democratic activist
Terry Hertle, County Supervisor
Judie Hertle, Community member

Black Hawk

Miriam Tyson, Retired union official & educator
Roger White, Retired teacher & Democratic activist
Eugene Lind, Retired
Wayne Gross, Retired
Pearl Gross, Retired
Dave Nagle, Former US congress member & Attorney
Matt Nagle, Democratic activist
Yavonne (Bonnie) Winther, CWA & Democratic activist
Deb Nagle , Community member
Karen Erickson, Community member
Dorothy Lind, Community member

Bremer

Ed Zelle, Retired
Theresa Meyer, Democratic Activist & Registered Nurse
Randy Meyer, Community member
Bill Hemmes, Community member
Laura Hemmes, Community member
Verona Zelle, Community member

Buchanan

Bill Hickey , UAW Retiree & Democratic Activist
Mickey Ficken, Registered Nurse
Gene Ficken, Former State Representative & Democratic Activist
Ralph Kremer, County Supervisor
Ellen Gaffney, County Supervisor
Inez Kremer, Community member

Clayton

Frank Phippen, Veteran
Roger Thomas, State Representative
Frederique Boudouani, Small Business owner
Brian Bruening, Small Business owner
Linda Orr, Former County Treasurer
Kevin Powell, Educator, School Board member, & Democratic Activist
Jean Marie Hall, Democratic Activist
Rosie Thomas, Community member

Delaware

Harold Blatt, Retired Educator & Democratic Activist
Mike McMahon, Educator
Julie McMahon, Educator
Diane Blatt, Democratic Activist
Jerry Ries, County Supervisor

Dubuque

Dan White , Union Officer
Bob Carr, Retired State Senator
Martha Connolly, Retired School Administrator
Rosie Carr , Retired RN
Dan Hamel, Retired IBEW leader
Randy Lyons, Retired Educator
Paul Thurlow, Retired Educator
Caroline Koppes, Retired Educator
Walt Pragler, Retired
Donna Krug, Retail Manager
Steve Day, Registered Nurse
Vicki Krug , Publisher
Francis Giunta, Labor Leader
Joanne Giunta, Healthy Care Executive
Mike Connolly, Former State Senator
Roger Power, Educator
Sue Power , Educator
Tony Siegert, Democratic Activist
Terra Siegert, Democratic Activist
Kathy Flynn Thurlow, County Recorder
Karla Braig, City Councilor
Jackie White, Community member
David Wilson, Community member

Fayette

Brian Schoenjahn, State Senator
Jake Blitsch, Retired Union Officer & Democratic Activist
Larry Murphy, Mayor of Oelwein
Bruce Bearinger , Educator & State Representative
Linda Murphy, Educator
Gayle Tellin, Democratic Activist
Peggy Sherrets, City Councilwomen
Gene Fueling, Accountant
Eileen Bearinger, Community member
Barbara Schoenjahn, Community member

Howard

Laura Lynn Hubka, Registered Nurse (RN) & Democratic Activist
Mark Kubik, County Supervisor
Don Burnikle, County Supervisor

Iowa

Sandra Cronbaugh, Small Business owner
Dale Walter, County Supervisor
Robert A Cronbaugh, Community member
Beverly J Montross, Retired

Jackson

Tom Schueller, Small Business owner
Donna Heffel, Small Business owner
Bob Osterhaus, Pharmacists
Dick Hefel , Educator
Jane Bofeli, Democratic Activist
Dave Bofeli, Democratic Activist
Melody Schueller, Community member
Julie Horst , Community member
Jill Noltting, Community member

Jones

Mark Denniston, Retired County Sheriff
Arlie Willems, Educator
Keith Dirks, County Supervisor
Jay Willems, Attorney
Dorris Denniston, Community member
Joyce Finn-Dirks, Community member
Jean Cook, Community member

Linn

Judy Fries, Union official
Al Hartl, President RWDSU local 110
Kay Halloran, Former State Representative, Former Mayor of Cedar Rapids & Attorney
Dick Taylor, Former State Rep & Former IEBW member
Don Zeller , Former County Sheriff
Joe Ironside, Directing Business Representative for Machinist
Roy C. Portfield, Democratic activist
Justin Shields, City Councilor & Former President Hawkeye labor council
Roger Grobstich, Business agent RWDSU
Mark Seidl, Attorney
Angela Grobstich, Community member
Naomi Zeller, Community member
Deb Phillips, Community member
Glenn Phillips, Community member
Dave Gulick, Engineer

Marshall

Mark Smith, State Representative & social worker
Wayne Sawtelle, Professional firefighter
Mary Harris, Educator
Sue Blaisdell, Democratic activist
Jeff Harris, Bussing administrator
Karen Lescher, Community member
Ann Sawtelle, Community member
Willie Acord, Community member
Reita Acord, Community member
Beverly Hinshaw, Community member
Kathy Dooley, Community member
Harlietta Helland, Community member
Ray Helland, Community member
Helen Degner, Community member

Mitchell

Michael Wertz, Small Business owner
Joan Koenigs, Retired nurse
Deo Koenigs, Former State Representative
Jeanette Rose Armstrong, Community member
Carol Wertz, Community member

Poweshiek

Don Smith , Educator
Robert Hamilton, Educator
Rachel Bly, Educator
Charlene Doyle, Democratic activist
Rita Ferneau, Community member
David Ferneau, Community member

Tama

Brian Murphy, Educator
Sarah Murphy, Educator
Jon Huebner, Educator
Nathan Wrage, Democratic activist & union officer
Jennifer Wrage, Democratic activist
Patricia Clarke, Community member
Yvette Berner, Community member
Raymond Berner, Community member
Maralyn A. Hotchkiss, Community member
Marlene Beenken, Community member
Betricia Clark, Community member
Norma Riha, Community member
Bonnie Crawford, Community member
Leonard Dostal, Community member
Maryan Dostal, Community member

Winneshiek

Deborah Bishop, Nurse
John Beard, Former State Representative & small business owner
Dick Jensen, Democratic activist
Sue Otte, Community member
Lyle Otte, Community member

Worth

Joyce Russell, Mayor Fertile
Erik Hungerford, Democratic activist
Dennis May, County Supervisor
David Haugen, County Supervisor
Jim Burge, Community member

Iowa Medicaid expansion news roundup (updated)

desmoinesdem — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 20:35:00 GMT

Last week Governor Terry Branstad finally introduced legislation to enact his Healthy Iowa Plan instead of the Medicaid expansion foreseen under the 2010 federal health insurance reform law. Strangely, neither the governor's office nor the Iowa House Republican caucus held a news conference or even posted a press release about House Study Bill 232. The bill arrived at the statehouse on Thursday, April 4, after many legislators had left for the weekend.

So far House and Senate Republicans appear united behind Branstad's approach, while the governor's office strives to counter the obvious case against his plan (costs more, covers less). I've posted arguments for both sides and other news links after the jump.
The Democratic-controlled Iowa Senate already approved a Medicaid expansion bill in late March, along party lines. On April 4, Republicans on the Iowa House Ways and Means Committee took up that bill and replaced the entire text with one paragraph stating the "intent of the general assembly that health care delivery in the state result in improved patient health outcomes, improved patient care, and reduced cost."

Later the same day, Branstad's bill finally arrived at the statehouse. You can read the full text of House Study Bill 232 here.

State Representative Walt Rogers will floor-manage Branstad's plan in the House. He talked to Tony Leys of the Des Moines Register about the process.

Rep. Walt Rogers, a Cedar Falls Republican who is managing the new bill, said the Republican-controlled House will consider Branstad's ideas and the Medicaid-expansion proposal put forth by Democrats controlling the Senate.
Rogers said he liked the notion of encouraging personal health responsibility, but he suggested the House would consider changes to Branstad's proposal. "I would expect us to look at it and tweak it here and there. ... I'm hoping we can make this even better," he said.
Rogers said there was no conscious attempt to time the bill's introduction so it would gain little attention.

Sure there wasn't.

Side note: Rogers is also a possible candidate for Congress next year. If he seeks the Republican nomination in the first district, whatever compromises he makes on expanding health insurance coverage could hurt him in the GOP primary. The public benefit in reducing the number of uninsured Iowans might seem obvious to most people, but hard-core Republican primary voters are more likely to oppose any expansion of health care at the government's expense.

Back to the main topic of this post: Branstad's alternative to Medicaid expansion. The immediate reaction from Senate Democratic leaders was quite negative. Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal told an audience in Council Bluffs that the governor's plan is "absurd."

Branstad, who has rejected federal funding in fear that it won't be sustainable, has a plan with accountability by Medicaid-eligible patients requiring them to pay $500 to $1,000 with the state matching that amount.
"These are people who can't keep their washing machines running," Gronstal said at the year's final Legislative Coffee. "The concept of them coming up with $500 to $1,000 is absurd on its face. The governor doesn't have any idea what poverty is in this state."
What's more, Gronstal said, the governor's plan would only help a portion of low-income people leaving up to 60,000 who are eligible without any coverage. That means everyone else pays up to $1,000 a year for uncompensated services like this.
"It will be rejected in the Senate," Gronstal said of the governor's plan.

Democratic Senator Mary Jo Wilhelm delivered this speech on the Senate floor on April 8 (transcript provided by the Iowa Senate):

Thank you, Madam President.
Since I talked about when I was an Iowa worker who couldn't afford health insurance, I've heard from many Iowans in the same situation.
People like this woman from southeast Iowa:
"For years I worked as a waitress, and had no insurance.
"A lot of people do not realize that if you don't have insurance, it probably takes everything you earn just to make ends meet."
That is the best argument for Medicaid expansion.
Here's a woman who made it in just one sentence.
"As a small business owner and recently divorced woman, I do not have health insurance as of the first of this year."
These are the Iowans who need our help.
Working Iowans living without health insurance.
Most other states are expanding Medicaid.
What happened to Iowa?
Well, Governor Branstad has finally released his plan. It is packed with premiums, co-pays and other "gotchas" to deny working people health insurance.
How did we get here? Well, let me tell you.
Last July, the U.S. Supreme Court said states could choose to expand Medicaid or not.
Governor Branstad immediately announced he would come up with a better plan.
A couple of days later, he changed his mind.
On July 15, in a C-SPAN interview, Governor Branstad said he was working instead to elect Mitt Romney so health care reform would be repealed.
Well, we know how that turned out.
What has Governor Branstad done since the election?
He's encouraged Iowans to walk more and eat more fruits and vegetables.
He's joked that helping working Iowans get health insurance was like letting people drink at an open bar.
He's said he wants working people who can't afford real insurance to pay for some sort of Branstad Insurance-Lite.
Last week, he released a plan that does just that.
Here's what Governor Branstad didn't do.
Governor Branstad did not come up with a plan that is better than Medicaid expansion.
The Governor's plan costs more, covers fewer people, and provides less health care.
That's why the Branstad plan is no plan at all.
Thank you, Madame President.

I can't see why the U.S. Health and Human Services Department would approve this alternative to expanding Medicaid. It doesn't cover as many people or provide the same kind of benefits. At this writing, no advocacy groups in the health care arena have registered their lobbyists in support of House Study Bill 232, in contrast to more than 50 organizations that support expanding Medicaid in Iowa. Nevertheless, so far I haven't heard any Republican lawmaker criticize the governor's plan. Senate Minority Leader Bill Dix made several unconvincing arguments on its behalf over the weekend on WHO-TV. He seems to believe that any state-specific "Iowa plan" will be superior to a federal program.

As Bleeding Heartland has discussed before, Senate Democrats addressed the governor's concern that the federal government would not meet its commitments on Medicaid funding in future years. The bill approved by the Iowa Senate would allow Iowa to opt out of the Medicaid expansion if federal funding fell through. However, Branstad is still warning that Iowa can't afford to take a chance on Medicaid. This week, he has tried to push back against a core problem with his alternative: it costs more and delivers less. I enclose a chart the governor's staff began circulating around the statehouse this week:

The Iowa Senate responded with this joint statement by the main Democratic lawmakers working on the Medicaid expansion:

Refuting the Governor's "true side-by-side comparison" on health care
Joint statement by Senators Jochum, Hatch, Ragan, and Bolkcom
"We welcome the fact that Governor Branstad is finally engaging in the health care debate.
"Yet the 'true side-by-side comparison' he issued today is a disappointment. Below is a factual rebuttal.
"At stake is health insurance for struggling working Iowans, lower health care costs for all Iowans, and the long-term strength and competitiveness of our state's health care system.
"Based on public statements and private conversations, we are confident that the Iowa House and Senate will do what is necessary to move Iowa forward in this area."
end
Refuting the Governor's "true side-by-side comparison" on health care
Governor's document can be found here: http://tinyurl.com/br5gjan
Branstad Claim: "Iowans with below 100% FPL will be served by the Healthy Iowa Plan,..."
89,000 uninsured working Iowans making less than 100% of FPL would be covered under the Governor's "Healthy Iowans Plan," under the federal waiver the governor hopes to receive.
If the Governor receives such a waiver, Iowa will pay 40% of the cost while the fed pay 60%. Under Medicaid expansion, Iowa would pay at most 10% while the feds pay at least 90% after the 7th year. There is no state share for the first three years.
Branstad Claim: "...Iowans above 100% accessing health care through the affordable health benefits exchange."
61,000 uninsured working Iowans who earn between 101 and 138 % of FPL would buy private insurance throughout the federal exchange. Each person covered in this way will cost the federal government up to $3000 more than if they were covered by Medicaid. To recover some of that extra expense, Iowa small businesses will penalized as much $19 million by the federal government.
Branstad Claim: "Rewards Quality Health Care Outcomes: Yes, in Year 1"
Everyone knows this claim is not true. The governor is talking about Accountable Care Organizations (ACO), a complex new approach to improving health care outcomes. There is only one ACO currently in Iowa, a pilot project located in Fort Dodge. There is no simply no realistic way for the Governor's untried approach to implemented next year. Establishing working ACOs will take several years to accomplish.
The Senate plan for Medicaid expansion expands "medical homes," the cost-effective coordination of a single patient's care by medical and community support providers. The study referred to by the governor is the Senate's responsible strategy of working with Iowa's health care providers so the move to ACOs will be successful.
Branstad Claim: "Member Contributions: Yes, similar to the successful and popular Hawk-I program"
The Governor's effort to rebrand insurance premiums as "member contributions" will be rejected by the federal government. Medicaid funds clearly cannot be used for premium-based insurance schemes for persons under 150 FPL.
In addition, charging struggling working people premiums for insurance results in denying them insurance. Under the Governor's plan, Iowans who pay their rent, buy food, or make car payments and therefore miss a premium payment, will lose their insurance for a year. By failing to insure these people, the Governor's plan will drive every other Iowan's health costs.
Branstad Claim: "Estimated Cost to the State of Iowa at Full Implementation: Branstad Plan - $23 million"
Governor's claim that his plan costs $23 million leaves out the following annual costs:
$43 million in property taxes from every county in Iowa, an action which will likely torpedo the new mental health reform effort
$42 million from Broadlawns Hospital
$13 million from the University of Iowa Hospitals
$42 million dollars in general fund money
Branstad Claim: "Estimated Cost to the State of Iowa at Full Implementation: Medicaid Expansion - $83.4 million"
The $89 million listed by the Governor is the estimated cost of for a FULL year of the Senate plan for Medicaid expansion in 2020, when the state share finally reaches 10%. For the first three years, the state share is 0%. After that, it increases to a maximum of 10% of 2020.
The true apples- to-apple cost of each plan in the first full year is $162 million for the governor's plan and $5 million for the Senate Democratic plan. This $5 million is for administrative costs, no matter which plan is approved.
The true apples- to-apple cost of each plan in 2020 is difficult to determine. Since the Governor's plan costs $162 million in 2014 and increases from there, the cost is certain to be more than the estimated $89 million cost of the Senate plan in 2020.

Anyone can read House Study Bill 232 and see that it's going to cost a lot more than $23 million per year.

At the governor's weekly press conference on Monday, Branstad said lawmakers should "get past the hyper-partisanship and try to come up with a practical plan that will meet the needs of this state for the long-term." His communications director Tim Albrecht accused State Senator Jack Hatch of being

a "political opportunist" hoping to launch a gubernatorial campaign on the backs of Medicaid recipients.
"Jack Hatch is angry, because he attached his health care hopes to a failed, 1960s' program like Medicaid while Gov. Branstad instead offers a modern health care plan that will make its patients healthier," said Tim Albrecht, Branstad's communications director.

The Iowa House has scheduled a public hearing on the governor's plan and the Medicaid expansion on Tuesday, April 16 at 5:30 pm. Count on fireworks at that event. I'll be curious to see which interest groups (if any) show up to defend the governor's plan. The Iowa Hospital Association continues to advocate strongly for expanding Medicaid as a boon for the Iowa economy as well as for Iowans' health. According to Des Moines Register reporter Jason Noble, some corporations are pushing for a compromise.

Representatives from hospitals and others in the medical field said they favored the funding mechanism included in the Democrats' preferred plan: an expansion of the existing Medicaid program that would draw down substantial new federal dollars.
But they also lauded the innovative changes to the way the state provides health care to the poor envisioned in the alternative plan Republican Gov. Terry Branstad rolled out last week.
An ideal compromise, they said, would accept federal dollars but move away from traditional Medicaid and toward care that aims to prevent serious illnesses and pays providers for keeping patients healthy.
"We could make major reforms to our Medicaid program in a way that is meaningful and saves costs and provides quality care to the patients," said Sabra Rosener, a lobbyist for the Iowa Health System. "But it's going to take some guts and it's going to take some real thought and getting past whether we take the federal money or not."

In my opinion, the controversy over expanding Medicaid will keep lawmakers working for weeks if not months after the 2013 legislative session was scheduled to end.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: On April 11, State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald held press conferences in Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Davenport to discuss the competing health coverage plans. Here is the press release from the Iowa Democratic Party:

FITZGERALD: EXPANDING MEDICAID IS THE FINANCIALLY SMART MOVE FOR IOWA
Branstad Plan is a "bad financial deal" for Iowans
DES MOINES - State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald today gave his assessment on the competing health care plans that have been introduced in the legislature. After review of the Senate proposal and the Branstad plan, he has concluded that the only financially sound course is to do what the Democrats have proposed and expand Medicaid to 150,000 Iowans.
"I view it as my responsibility to not get caught up in the rhetoric and let Iowans know when they are getting a good or bad financial deal," said Treasurer Fitzgerald. "I have sat down read through the Senate and the Governor's health care plans. Governor Branstad's plan is a bad financial deal for Iowa, while expanding Medicaid is the financially smart move for the state of Iowa."
Fitzgerald cited a fiscal impact statement that found that the Senate plan spends only $4.7 million in taxpayer dollars in FY15, while the Governor's plan would spend more than $163 million. In addition, while the Governor has said he believes the Federal government would not fulfill its commitment under Medicaid expansion, the Governor actually asks the Federal government to spend an additional $90 million in FY15 to enact his plan - $667 million under his proposal while only $577 million under the Democratic plan.
"Today, I am asking Iowans to look at these numbers, think about the people affected, and contact Governor Branstad and leaders in the legislature," said the Treasurer. "Tell them that it is time to expand Medicaid. It makes financial sense. It makes common sense. And, it is the right thing to do."

IA-01: State Senator Jeff Danielson keeping options open

desmoinesdem — Tue, 09 Apr 2013 14:00:00 GMT

Democratic State Senator Jeff Danielson has not ruled out running for Congress in the open first district next year. I contacted Danielson after State Senator Liz Mathis confirmed on Saturday that she will not seek to replace Bruce Braley. Danielson responded on April 7, "I'm not actively seeking any other office at this time. I'm focused on the work of the Cedar Valley in the [legislative] session." When I asked whether he might consider a Congressional bid after the session ends, Danielson responded yesterday, "I am keeping all options open for 2014."

Danielson represents Iowa Senate district 30, covering most of Cedar Falls and part of Waterloo in Black Hawk County. He was just re-elected to a third four-year term in 2012, so he would not have to give up his current position to run for Congress next year. If he won the Democratic primary and the general election in IA-01, there would be a special election in Senate district 30 in early 2015. Republicans have a slight voter registration advantage in that district, but no-party voters have a plurality.

Danielson's district includes the University of Northern Iowa campus, so he has been a vocal advocate for higher education funding in the Iowa Senate. He has also been a leading voice for better disclosure of campaign contributions. He supports a federal constitutional amendment to overturn the U.S. Supreme Court's Citizens United decision and limit corporate campaign gifts. In Danielson's latest re-election campaign, he focused on bipartisan work to support main street businesses and fully fund services Iowans depend on. He also emphasized his commitment to "protecting health care choices for women."

IA-01: Liz Mathis not running

desmoinesdem — Sat, 06 Apr 2013 19:40:00 GMT

Confirming rumors that have circulated for the last two months, State Senator Liz Mathis told the Associated Press this morning that the timing isn't right for her to run for Congress in 2014.
Link:

"It really has been a very hard decision because I spoke to so many people," Mathis told The Associated Press. "As I was looking at it more and more, I still realized I still have a lot of room to grow in my role as a state senator. I have a young daughter who has her senior year and I don't want to miss that. And I don't want to schedule that."
Mathis does not know yet who she will support in the race, but she pledged to support the Democratic nominee. She did not rule out a run for higher office at a later date.
"I have certainly not closed the door on anything in my political future," Mathis said. "There may be another chance."

This afternoon, Mathis posted on Twitter,

Thanks to those who encouraged me to run for Congress. Not the right time for me, personally. Have work to do in the @IowaSenate

Many Democrats were excited about a Mathis candidacy because her previous career in television broadcasting gave her strong appeal and name recognition in counties where most IA-01 voters live. I fully support her decision not to run for Congress if she has no strong desire to do so. However, I would not count on another chance to run for Congress anytime soon.

My father used to say, "When the pie is being passed around, that's the best time to take a slice." Mathis may have opportunities to run for some statewide office in the future, but if Pat Murphy or another Democrat wins the Congressional seat Bruce Braley is vacating, it may be decades before the district opens up again.

Meanwhile, Erin Murphy reports for the Dubuque Telegraph-Herald today that Teri Goodmann of Dubuque has decided against running for Congress as well.

Goodmann, Dubuque's assistant city manager, has extensive and powerful connections in Washington, D.C. It's likely she would have garnered some impressive endorsements - starting with her good friend and U.S. Vice President Joe Biden - and it's equally likely she would have been a fundraising dynamo.
Goodmann told the TH she gave serious thought to running for Congress - she admitted the goal of getting an Iowa woman elected to Congress was particularly inviting - but ultimately opted to stay in Dubuque, citing family reasons and her work for the city.
"The demands of serving in Congress require a personal sacrifice I am unwilling to make - namely living apart from my husband, children, granddaughter and wonderful extended families of Hawks and Goodmanns," Goodmann said. "In the end, I have concluded that proximity and daily engagement with my family is a value I hold dear and cannot live without."

Researchers have found that family considerations prompt many women not to run for political office.

With State Senator Steve Sodders also opting out of the IA-01 race, former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy has the Democratic field to himself for now. I'll be surprised if some candidate from Linn County or Black Hawk County doesn't declare later. Possible names include State Senator Jeff Danielson of Cedar Falls, State Representative and Iowa Democratic Party Chair Tyler Olson of Cedar Rapids, and Linn County Supervisor Linda Langston.

UPDATE: John Deeth again emphasizes the importance of nominating a Democratic woman for this seat. I agree that running women in other extreme long-shot races (like former State Senator Staci Appel against Representative Tom Latham in IA-03) is not a substitute for recruiting solid female candidates in seats that can be won.

Iowa might already have a woman in Congress if the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee hadn't brought down the hammer on Christie Vilsack when she was thinking about running in IA-02 last cycle. But the incumbency protection racket came through for Representative Dave Loebsack.

UPDATED: Three Democrats planning to run in Iowa House district 99

desmoinesdem — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 16:45:00 GMT

Several Democrats have already announced plans to run for Iowa House district 99 in Dubuque next year. State Representative Pat Murphy has represented part of that city for more than 20 years. He is leaving the state legislature to run for Congress in Iowa's first district.

After the jump I've posted background on Kevin Lynch, Steve Drahozal, Abby Finkenauer and Greg Simpson, along with a map of House district 99 and the latest voter registration totals. More candidates may emerge in this strongly Democratic House seat before the filing deadline in March 2014. One or more of the current candidates may opt out of the race before the filing deadline.

APRIL 5 UPDATE: Erin Murphy of the Dubuque Telegraph-Herald reports that Lynch has decided not to pursue this campaign. According to a Bleeding Heartland reader in Dubuque, both Drahozal and Finkenauer (but not Lynch) addressed county Democrats at the off-year caucus in March.
House district 99 covers part of the city of Dubuque and Dubuque township:

The Dubuque area has been a Democratic stronghold for generations, and the winner of the Democratic primary should have no trouble holding House district 99. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State's office indicate that the district contains 9,305 registered Democrats, 5,356 Republicans, and 7,893 no-party voters as of April 2013. It's worth noting that in the 2010 Republican landslide year, Murphy was re-elected with under 52 percent of the vote, but he didn't spend any money defending his own House seat.

If Rod Blum wins the 2014 Republican primary to represent the first Congressional district, GOP turnout may be higher than normal in the Dubuque area next November. Even so, a hard-working Democratic candidate should be able to win House district 99.

Murphy announced in February that he would run for Congress rather than another term in House district 99. Immediately afterwards, Dubuque City Council member Kevin Lynch told the Dubuque Telegraph-Herald that he was "definitely interested" in the race.

Lynch said he has been considering running for the statehouse for many years, and though he has not yet filed official papers, he fully intends to run for the office.
"I can't see any reason at this point why I would not do it," said Lynch, the owner of Net-Smart in Dubuque. "It's something I've been thinking about for a long time." [...]
Lynch, a Democrat, said he would like to serve in the Capitol to work on statewide education issues and incentives to keep young Iowans in Iowa. He was first elected to the city council in 2005 and is serving the final year of his second term.

I have not seen a Lynch campaign Facebook page or website.

Local attorney Steve Drahozal also announced plans to run in mid-February, KCRG reported.

Drahozal decided to run because he has observed cuts in education and other attacks on the middle class.
"As a proud product of Iowa's public education system and the husband of an educator, the Governor's proposal of zero percent allowable growth unless his education reform plan is passed is very troubling," Drahozal says. He continues, "I have also seen the middle class come under attack from some proposals in Des Moines." These include initiatives to limit collective bargaining and opposition to expanding Medicaid to help many of Iowa's workers and veterans.
Drahozal, a Democrat, is a Dubuque attorney. An Iowa native, Drahozal attended Kirkwood Community College and the University of Iowa College of Law.

Drahozal's campaign is on Facebook here.

Abby Finkenauer officially joined the race for Murphy's seat on March 15, the Dubuque Telegraph-Herald reported.

Finkenauer is a former page to Murphy when he was speaker of the House in 2007.
Finkenauer, who had previously said she was considering a run, made her official announcement on what would have been her late grandfather's 80th birthday. Finkenauer said her grandfather, Ron Kann, a former Dubuque firefighter, is the reason she is interested in public service.

Finkenauer's campaign is on Facebook here. During the 2012 and 2013 legislative sessions, she has clerked for State Representative Todd Taylor of Cedar Rapids. He introduced her at this campaign kickoff event and mentioned that in 2007, Finkenauer had been a statewide volunteer coordinator for Joe Biden's presidential campaign in Iowa.

State Senators Pam Jochum and Tod Bowman also attended Finkenauer's campaign kickoff. Jochum represented the other Dubuque-based Iowa House seat alongside Murphy for 16 years and has represented the Dubuque area in the Iowa Senate since 2009. Bowman represents a Senate seat that includes a large area in Dubuque County outside the city of Dubuque.

Greg Simpson announced his candidacy in House district 99 this morning. His campaign is on Facebook here. Official press release:

The race to succeed Pat Murphy as the Representative of Iowa House gains a new candidate. Long time Democratic Party activist and former Dubuque County Party Chairman, Greg Simpson, will be announcing his candidacy for the upcoming 2014 election.
On Wednesday, April 10th, at a gathering of friends and supporters Simpson will make a formal announcement of his candidacy. This event will be held at Simpson's home at 584 W 11thStreet from 6-8pm. Light refreshments will be served.
Simpson's decision to enter the race was influenced by the current debate on health care reform taking place in Des Moines. "As a Registered Nurse providing critical care at the bedside, I understand the real world effects of the decisions being made and the impact they can have on the lives of everyday Iowans."
Simpson, a father of eight children, is a lifelong resident of Dubuque and a graduate of Hempstead High School. Greg also holds a B.A. in history from the University of Dubuque and a Registered Nurse Certificate from Northeast Iowa Community College. Additionally, Simpson served 12 years with the Iowa National Guard and he has been actively involved in the Senior High football program for more than a decade.
"I believe my longstanding involvement with the Democratic Party, understanding of health issues, firsthand knowledge of the challenges facing our young people, combined with my military experience and deep community roots qualify me to best serve and represent the entire Dubuque community," said Simpson.

UPDATE: I have received confirmation that the Dubuque County Democrats will not endorse a candidate before the June 2014 primary election. Party by-laws require neutrality in competitive Democratic primaries.

Iowa House votes to relax manure storage rules for CAFOs (updated)

desmoinesdem — Tue, 02 Apr 2013 12:15:00 GMT

In an ideal world, evidence that more than half of Midwest rivers and streams can't support aquatic life would inspire policy-makers to clean up our waterways. Rivers that are suitable for swimming, fishing, and other recreation can be a huge economic engine for Iowa communities.

We live in Iowa, where most of our lawmakers take the Patty Judge view: "Iowa is an agricultural state and anyone who doesn't like it can leave in any of four directions."

Yesterday the Iowa House approved a bill to relax manure storage regulations for large confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs). All of the House Republicans and two-thirds of the Democrats supported this bad legislation. Details on the bill and the House vote are below.
Proponents of House File 512 claim it would make life easier for farmers who want to "downsize" their operations temporarily.

"This bill allows you to notify the DNR [Department of Natural Resources] that you will no longer have animals above the 500 animal unit that requires the manure management plan," [Republican State Representative Lee] Hein said, "simplifies it and allows those buildings to remain intact in case, say, for instance the next generation comes along in a few years and wants to enter back into the hog operation."

If that were the intended goal of this bill, Iowa lawmakers should have had no problem with an amendment proposed by State Representative Chuck Isenhart, the ranking Democrat on the Iowa House Environmental Protection Committee. His amendment was short and simple:

During the period of election [to be a small animal feeding operation], a manure storage structure that is part of the confinement feeding operation is not used to store manure originating from a location outside the confinement feeding operation.

In other words, go ahead and mothball your barn in case your child wants to come back to the farm someday. But in the meantime, don't use your barn to store manure overflowing from someone else's CAFO. During yesterday's floor debate (audio available at Radio Iowa), Isenhart warned that House Fill 512 would become a "fall-back" option for CAFO operators who don't want to invest in adequate manure storage facilities. He noted that the original bill does not recognize potential hazards from manure spills during transportation to a neighboring farm and offloading.

House members rejected Isenhart's amendment by voice vote shortly before the vote on final passage for House File 512. Incidentally, Hein (the floor manager of this bill) chairs the House Environmental Protection Committee. We can see how committed he is to that mission.

But I don't mean to pin all the blame for this bad bill on House Republicans. Most of the Democratic caucus helped to pass it by 83 votes to 16. The roll call (pdf) shows that all 52 Republicans present voted yes, joined by the following 31 House Democrats: Bruce Bearinger, Deborah Berry, Dennis Cohoon, David Dawson, Nancy Dunkel, Ruth Ann Gaines, Mary Gaskill, Chris Hall, Curt Hanson, Dave Jacoby, Jerry Kearns, Dan Kelley, Bob Kressig, Daniel Lundby, Jim Lykam, Helen Miller, Dan Muhlbauer, Pat Murphy, Tyler Olson, Scott Ourth, Todd Prichard, Joe Riding, Patti Ruff, Kirsten Running-Marquardt, Art Staed, Sharon Steckman, Sally Stutsman, Phyllis Thede, Roger Thomas, Mary Wolfe, and Frank Wood.

I understand the political realities. Many of these Democrats represent rural areas; others represent urban districts where the livestock industry is important to the local economy. The bill's going to pass anyway, so why stick your neck out? The sad fact is, agribusiness interest groups will endorse challengers to most of these Democrats in the next election, ignoring the friendly votes cast to appease Big Ag.

Next time I receive a fundraising call from the Iowa Democratic Party or the House Truman Fund, I will let them know that this bill is one reason I'm keeping my checkbook closed. At least a dozen of the Democrats who voted for House File 512 represent rock-solid safe districts. That includes you, Iowa Democratic Party Chair Tyler Olson.

Credit goes to the House Democrats who had the guts to vote against House File 512 yesterday: Ako Abdul-Samad, Marti Anderson, John Forbes, Lisa Heddens, Bruce Hunter, Chuck Isenhart, Anesa Kajtazovic, Vicki Lensing, Mary Mascher, Kevin McCarthy, Jo Oldson, Rick Olson, Mark Smith, Todd Taylor, Beth Wessel-Kroeschell, and Cindy Winckler.

The lobbyist declarations on House File 512 show that the Iowa Pork Producers Association is the only group registered supporting the bill. These organizations have lobbyists registered against the bill:

Iowa Environmental Council
Food & Water Watch
Des Moines Water Works
Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement Action Fund
Iowa Farmers Union
Sierra Club Iowa Chapter

Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement's Action Fund is calling on Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal to block the Senate version of House File 512. That bill, known as Senate File 418, has already passed the Senate Agriculture Committee and is eligible for floor debate. Gronstal has the final call on what comes up for a vote. In the past, he has supported some bad legislation designed to support factory farms. But in those days, Senate President Jack Kibbie always had Big Ag's back. Now the Senate President is Pam Jochum, who has a strong environmental voting record. Maybe she can prevail on Gronstal.

Iowa Department of Natural Resources Director Chuck Gipp does not agree with Iowa CCI's interpretation of this bill's potential impact on water quality. No big surprise there. The Iowa DNR's lobbyist is registered "undecided" on House File 512.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread.

P.S.- House File 512 originated in the House Agriculture Committee, currently chaired by Pat Grassley. He is considered a leading contender for Iowa secretary of agriculture in 2014 if current Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey runs for U.S. Senate.

P.P.S- Environmentalists living in the first Congressional district should ask Pat Murphy to explain this vote when he asks for their support in the IA-01 Democratic primary. In fairness to Murphy, he has voted against some other bad legislation favored by Big Ag in recent years.

UPDATE: Representative Isenhart responded to my request for comment on the passage of this bill.

Rep. Hein, the bill's floor manager and a hog producer, admitted in his remarks what environmental groups feared the bill will make possible: that so-called "mothballed" confinement facilities can still be used to house sick animals and the manure pits to store excess waste from other facilities, all without updated manure management and other plans to mimimize risks to the environment and animal safety.

APRIL 5 UPDATE: The Iowa Senate will not take up this bill during the 2013 legislative session, according to this Iowa CCI Action alert. In an article on legislation that will not clear the second "funnel" deadline today, William Petroski and Jason Noble mentioned that Senate Democrats are rejecting "a proposal to revise rules on hog feeding operations."

IA-01: Steve Sodders not running

desmoinesdem — Sun, 31 Mar 2013 16:05:00 GMT

Democratic State Senator Steve Sodders announced on Facebook a few minutes ago that he will not run for the U.S. House in Iowa's first Congressional district next year. His press release is after the jump. Sodders was just re-elected in 2012 to a second four-year term in the Iowa Senate, where he is also is president pro-tem and chairs the Economic Growth Committee. He announced earlier this month that he was considering running for the seat Representative Bruce Braley is vacating to run for U.S. Senate.

So far State Representative Pat Murphy, a former Iowa House speaker who represents part of Dubuque, is the only Democratic candidate in IA-01. Two Republicans have announced their candidacies: Cedar Rapids-based business owner Steve Rathje and Dubuque-based business owner Rod Blum. Any comments about the race are welcome in this thread.

For Immediate release: 31 March 2013
Sodders: I will not run for Congress in 2014
State Senator Steve Sodders of State Center today announced that he will not be running for the U.S. Congress in 2014:
Sodders released this statement to supporters and the news media:
"I want to thank all my family members, neighbors, friends and other Iowans who have reached out to me with their encouragement to enter the race for Iowa's open U.S. House seat in District 1.
"Despite this encouragement and the appeal of serving more Iowans in the U.S. Congress, I and my family have decided that I will not run for the U.S. House in 2014."
"I love being a citizen-legislator in Iowa, working as a Deputy Sheriff in Marshall County, and serving as a State Senator to my constituents in Marshall, Tama and Black Hawk counties. I have also been entrusted by my Senate colleagues to serve in the leadership position of Senate President Pro Tempore."
"I am proud of our bipartisan efforts in the Iowa Legislature to grow Iowa's middle class by improving the quality of our schools, by expanding access to affordable health care for all Iowans, and by increasing job opportunities in every county in our state. I more motivated than ever to ensure that the dream of a larger middle class in Iowa becomes a reality."
"I ask for your continued support as we work together for this great state."
- End -

Paging the women of IA-01

desmoinesdem — Fri, 29 Mar 2013 16:15:00 GMT

Seventy-six countries around the world have a higher percentage of women in their national legislatures than the United States. Iowa is one of very few states that has never sent a woman to Congress. The open seat in Iowa's first Congressional district is a perfect chance to leave Mississippi in the dust. Yet so far, no women have announced plans to run for the seat Bruce Braley is vacating. Three men are in the race for sure: Pat Murphy, Steve Rathje, and Rod Blum. Steve Sodders is strongly considering it and visited Washington last week to talk with Democrats about the race. UPDATE: Sodders has ruled out running for Congress.

The last time IA-01 was open, four Democratic men and three Republican men sought to replace Jim Nussle. Are we looking at a repeat?

For years, academic researchers have shown that "when women run for office, they perform just as well as men." But they don't run for office as often as men do for lots of reasons. A new study suggests that from a young age, women are less likely than men to consider running for office someday (full report here).

Iowa Democratic Party leaders should be working to recruit a top-tier female candidate in IA-01, a Democratic-leaning seat that presents the best opportunity of my lifetime to send a woman to Congress. But that's not going to happen when party chair Tyler Olson is thinking about running for Congress himself. Republican Party of Iowa leaders should also be looking for a strong woman candidate to capitalize on Democrats' strategic error. I doubt that "liberating" thought would ever cross the minds of the "Liberty" gang running the Iowa GOP.

Sisters are going to have to do it for ourselves. Whether that's the "50-50 in 2020" organization co-chaired by former women elected officials and candidates or some informal group of political activists, it's time to identify and encourage women to step up to the plate in IA-01--before the early declared candidates get a large advantage in fundraising and endorsements.

IA-Sen: Previewing Braley's case to Iowa voters

desmoinesdem — Thu, 28 Mar 2013 19:05:00 GMT

Representative Bruce Braley's campaign for the U.S. Senate has steadily rolled out endorsements this month. Eight labor unions have backed Braley's Senate bid so far, joined today by Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller and Iowa State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald.

Since Braley lacks any competition in the Democratic primary, these endorsements aren't newsworthy at face value. However, a closer look at the announcements points to five major themes the Braley campaign will highlight over the next 19 months.

UPDATE: Added a sixth theme below.
Almost every press release from Braley's campaign includes some variant of the word "fight" (or "fighter" or "fighting"). Here's what the four-term member of Congress will promise to fight for as he runs to replace Senator Tom Harkin in 2014.

1. The interests of working families and the middle class

During his last re-election campaign in the first Congressional district, Braley repeatedly highlighted his work to represent the interests of the middle class or the "99 percent." His Senate campaign is hitting the same themes. From the February 16 press release announcing Representative Dave Loebsack's endorsement:

Loebsack said, "I'm proud to endorse Bruce Braley for Senate. For the last 30 years, Tom Harkin has showed us how to be a Senator who works to create a world full of opportunities for people who want to make a better life for themselves and their families.
Loebsack continued, "I have served with Bruce for six years now, and I can tell you from seeing his determination and work ethic up close there is no one at this time who is more ready to keep up the fight to strengthen middle class families and to make life better for Iowans. I am pleased to stand with Bruce. There is not a better choice in the Democratic Party, or in the state, to succeed

Most of the eight press releases announcing labor union endorsements have sounded a similar note. From March 21:

Jeff Smith, president of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers Local 3, said, "We're excited to endorse Bruce Braley for Senate. He has a long record of getting things done for Iowa that expand economic opportunities, create jobs, and create a level playing field for the middle class. We know he'll do even more in the Senate."

From March 19:

Ron McInroy, UAW [United Auto Workers] Region 4 director, said, "I've known Bruce Braley since long before he was first elected. For as long as I've known him, Bruce has worked tirelessly for working men and women across Iowa. In Congress, he's fought to create opportunity for Iowa's working families, level the playing field for American manufacturers, and strengthen the middle class. He's never forgotten where he's come from, and he'll be even more effective in the US Senate. UAW Region 4 is proud to endorse him today."
Bruce Braley said, "I'm proud to have the endorsement of UAW Region 4. The tens of thousands of UAW members in Iowa demonstrate every day why American workers are the most productive and best skilled in the world. I'm running for Senate to strengthen American manufacturing and create more opportunities for American workers, and UAW's support will help get the job done."

From March 13:

Danny Homan, AFSCME Iowa Council 61 president, said, "To know what Bruce Braley works for, just take a look at where he's come from. His mom is still teaching in Brooklyn, Iowa, and his dad worked at a grain elevator. Bruce learned by their example early in life how to work hard, and he's been a fighter for the middle class in Congress. We know he'll be even more effective in the US Senate, and AFSCME Iowa Council 61 is proud to endorse him."
Rep. Bruce Braley said, "I'm honored to have the endorsement of AFSCME Iowa Council 61. From nurses to firefighters to police officers and more, AFSCME represents people who work every day to make Iowa a better place to live and raise a family. I'm running for Senate to be an even more effective voice for Iowa's middle class, and their support will help me get the job done."

In today's press release, Attorney General Miller comments that Braley has worked "to prevent student loan rate increases from hurting Iowa students."

2. Reducing the national debt and spending taxpayer money wisely

Since shortly after his narrow escape in the 2010 election, Braley has cultivated an image as a deficit hawk, framing comments on many domestic and foreign policy issues in terms of spending taxpayer dollars wisely. Last year, he even endorsed a federal constitutional amendment to require a balanced budget.

Fiscal responsibility is sure to be a theme of Braley's Senate campaign too. From the March 28 press release:

[State Treasurer Michael] Fitzgerald said, "In a Washington defined by fiscal irresponsibility and recklessness, Bruce Braley has been a breath of fresh air, working across party lines to save taxpayers money and strengthen the middle class. We need leaders in Congress who will stand up for policies that tackle our nation's growing debt and use taxpayer money more wisely. Bruce Braley will stand up for common sense in the Senate, and that's why I'm proud to endorse him today."

3. Policies to assist veterans

Several of Braley's 2012 television commercials highlighted his efforts to fight for veterans. He frequently mentions in public that his father was a World War II veteran in the Pacific theater. During 2011 and 2012, Braley served on the House Veterans Affairs Committee; he had to give up that position this year when he was offered a seat on the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee.

From the March 28 press release:

[Attorney General Tom] Miller said, "Bruce Braley fights for Iowa, plain and simple. From championing policies that have helped countless Iowa veterans to working to prevent student loan rate increases from hurting Iowa students, Bruce has never forgotten where he's come from. He'll be even more effective in the US Senate, and I'm proud to endorse him today."

In a February 18 press release, the Braley campaign quoted veteran and former Representative Leonard Boswell as saying,

Bruce has been a tireless advocate for Iowa's veterans. He's never forgotten where he's come from, and he'll be an even more effective voice for us in the US Senate."

4. The interests of Iowans in small towns and rural areas

Several of the campaign's press releases have noted that Braley grew up in the small town of Brooklyn (Poweshiek County) and understands the needs of small towns. The opening television commercial from Braley's 2012 campaign focused on lessons he learned growing up in Brooklyn, and I expect that he will introduce himself to voters statewide in a similar way next year.

The February 18 statement from Boswell included the following quote:

Boswell said, "Bruce Braley has earned my endorsement and support. Bruce was born in a small town, grew up in rural Iowa, and has lived in Iowa his whole life. I've watched him fight passionately for Iowa's small towns, big cities, and working families.

Two labor unions associated with postal workers have endorsed Braley for Senate, and both cited his work in 2011 and 2012 to prevent the closure of rural post offices. From the March 25 statement announcing the Iowa Postal Workers Union endorsement:

Bruce Clark, president of the Iowa Postal Workers Union, said, "Bruce Braley gets things done for Iowa, and the proof is in the pudding. Bruce has worked hard to maintain postal services and maintain delivery standards for rural Iowa. He lobbied the Postal Service to keep small town Iowa post offices and Iowa mail processing facilities open, helping to save hundreds of jobs and keeping an economic lifeline open in dozens of communities. He'll do even more for Iowa in the US Senate."
Bruce Braley said, "I'm honored to have the Iowa Postal Workers' endorsement. I've worked in Congress to stand up for working families and prevent harmful cuts to postal service in rural Iowa. I believe I'll be an even more effective voice in the Senate to pursue policies that expand economic opportunities and create jobs."
Braley worked successfully in Congress to keep a number of small town post offices open in Iowa and prevent mail processing facilities from closing in Waterloo and Cedar Rapids.

From the March 27 press release announcing the Iowa State Association of Letter Carriers endorsement:

Jim Beach, President of the Iowa State Association of Letter Carriers, said, "We're proud to stand with Bruce Braley in his campaign for Senate. Bruce has been an ardent supporter of maintaining six day delivery, a service that if eliminated will cut thousands of working class jobs while negatively impacting rural communities, small business owners, and a growing number of seniors who use the mail to receive their prescriptions. As postal reform moves to the forefront, he'll be an even more effective voice for Iowa in the US Senate advocating for strengthening -- not shrinking -- the USPS."
Bruce Braley said, "I'm honored to have the endorsement of the Iowa Association of Letter Carriers. I've fought for policies in Congress that strengthen the middle class and help preserve the economic lifeline of the USPS in communities across Iowa. In the Senate, I'll keep fighting to create new economic opportunities for working Iowans and the communities they live in."

5. All Iowans, regardless of party affiliation

For years, Braley has cultivated a non-partisan image; for example, he has participated in several events organized by "No Labels," a so-called "centrist" 501(c)4 organization that does not reveal its donors.

From the March 28 campaign press release:

Braley said, "When I was growing up in Brooklyn, Iowa, and someone had a problem, they didn't ask what party you belonged to. They asked for your help and they got it. I'm running for Senate to be an effective voice for Iowans of all backgrounds, and I'm thrilled to have Attorney General Miller and Treasurer Fitzgerald's endorsement today."

The final television commercial from Braley's 2012 re-election campaign used almost exactly the same wording.

The March 15 press release announcing support from the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Iowa - Local 199 included this comment from the candidate:

Rep. Bruce Braley said, "I'm honored to have the endorsement of SEIU Local 199. The men and women of SEIU get up every day and go to work to help others. That's the approach I hope to take to the US Senate, working hard to create jobs, strengthen the middle class, and reach across party lines to bring people together around policies that help Iowa."

Any comments about next year's U.S. Senate campaign are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Supporting small business growth and development will also be a theme of the Braley campaign, judging from this March 29 press release announcing the endorsement of State Representative Tyler Olson. Excerpt (emphasis in original):

Olson said, "I'm excited to endorse Bruce Braley for the US Senate. I make this endorsement not on behalf of the Iowa Democratic Party but as an individual - and as a longtime friend and supporter. No one is better suited to be in the Senate working for Iowa than Bruce. I know he'll fight to strengthen the middle class, stand up for veterans, and help small businesses grow and expand. I know this because I've watched him already accomplish so much for Iowa. It's time we got Bruce Braley to the US Senate so he can do even more."
Braley said, "I'm proud to have Tyler Olson's endorsement. Not only is Tyler a friend, but he's an experienced small businessman who brings a wealth of common sense experience to the Iowa House. I'm running for Senate to help strengthen the Iowa economy, and that means getting small businesses the resources they need to grow and expand. Tyler's support will help us get across the finish line."
Olson announced his endorsement during a "Facebook Chat" focused on entrepreneurship and small business growth hosted by Braley's campaign. The online event allowed Iowans from across the state to simultaneously participate in a virtual town hall-style event and ask Braley questions.
Yesterday, Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller and Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald announced their endorsement of Braley. Last month, Rep. Dave Loebsack and former Rep. Leonard Boswell endorsed Braley. And eight major labor organizations have endorsed Braley, including the Iowa State Association of Letter Carriers, the Iowa Postal Workers Union, the Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers Local 3 Iowa Union, UAW Region 4, SEIU Iowa - Local 199, AFSCME Iowa Council 61, the Iowa State

LATE UPDATE: John Deeth interviewed Braley on May 1. Excerpt:

Deeth: With this our first open seat race in 40 years, and the whole post-Citizens United dynamic, how do you keep your message going in a race like this once the outsiders start to pile on?
Braley: Well, I have done this enough to understand that you have to give voters a reason to show up and vote FOR you. You can't just depend on voter suppression to get them not to show up and vote for your opponent. And to me that means you've got to find a way to inspire voters into believing that you share their values, you understand the problems and concerns they deal with on a daily basis, you're going to be an effective listener, and you're going to take what you've learned and be a strong champion for the people of this state. That's going to be my strategy as I travel around the state talking about what I've done as concrete examples of bringing people together to solve tough problems, even when I was serving in the minority in the last Congress.

IA-Sen: Previewing Braley's case to Iowa voters

desmoinesdem — Thu, 28 Mar 2013 19:05:00 GMT

1. The interests of working families and the middle class

Loebsack said, "I'm proud to endorse Bruce Braley for Senate. For the last 30 years, Tom Harkin has showed us how to be a Senator who works to create a world full of opportunities for people who want to make a better life for themselves and their families.
Loebsack continued, "I have served with Bruce for six years now, and I can tell you from seeing his determination and work ethic up close there is no one at this time who is more ready to keep up the fight to strengthen middle class families and to make life better for Iowans. I am pleased to stand with Bruce. There is not a better choice in the Democratic Party, or in the state, to succeed

Most of the eight press releases announcing labor union endorsements have sounded a similar note. From March 21:

Jeff Smith, president of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers Local 3, said, "We're excited to endorse Bruce Braley for Senate. He has a long record of getting things done for Iowa that expand economic opportunities, create jobs, and create a level playing field for the middle class. We know he'll do even more in the Senate."

From March 19:

Ron McInroy, UAW [United Auto Workers] Region 4 director, said, "I've known Bruce Braley since long before he was first elected. For as long as I've known him, Bruce has worked tirelessly for working men and women across Iowa. In Congress, he's fought to create opportunity for Iowa's working families, level the playing field for American manufacturers, and strengthen the middle class. He's never forgotten where he's come from, and he'll be even more effective in the US Senate. UAW Region 4 is proud to endorse him today."
Bruce Braley said, "I'm proud to have the endorsement of UAW Region 4. The tens of thousands of UAW members in Iowa demonstrate every day why American workers are the most productive and best skilled in the world. I'm running for Senate to strengthen American manufacturing and create more opportunities for American workers, and UAW's support will help get the job done."

From March 13:

Danny Homan, AFSCME Iowa Council 61 president, said, "To know what Bruce Braley works for, just take a look at where he's come from. His mom is still teaching in Brooklyn, Iowa, and his dad worked at a grain elevator. Bruce learned by their example early in life how to work hard, and he's been a fighter for the middle class in Congress. We know he'll be even more effective in the US Senate, and AFSCME Iowa Council 61 is proud to endorse him."
Rep. Bruce Braley said, "I'm honored to have the endorsement of AFSCME Iowa Council 61. From nurses to firefighters to police officers and more, AFSCME represents people who work every day to make Iowa a better place to live and raise a family. I'm running for Senate to be an even more effective voice for Iowa's middle class, and their support will help me get the job done."

In today's press release, Attorney General Miller comments that Braley has worked "to prevent student loan rate increases from hurting Iowa students."

2. Reducing the national debt and spending taxpayer money wisely

Fiscal responsibility is sure to be a theme of Braley's Senate campaign too. From the March 28 press release:

[State Treasurer Michael] Fitzgerald said, "In a Washington defined by fiscal irresponsibility and recklessness, Bruce Braley has been a breath of fresh air, working across party lines to save taxpayers money and strengthen the middle class. We need leaders in Congress who will stand up for policies that tackle our nation's growing debt and use taxpayer money more wisely. Bruce Braley will stand up for common sense in the Senate, and that's why I'm proud to endorse him today."

3. Policies to assist veterans

From the March 28 press release:

[Attorney General Tom] Miller said, "Bruce Braley fights for Iowa, plain and simple. From championing policies that have helped countless Iowa veterans to working to prevent student loan rate increases from hurting Iowa students, Bruce has never forgotten where he's come from. He'll be even more effective in the US Senate, and I'm proud to endorse him today."

In a February 18 press release, the Braley campaign quoted veteran and former Representative Leonard Boswell as saying,

Bruce has been a tireless advocate for Iowa's veterans. He's never forgotten where he's come from, and he'll be an even more effective voice for us in the US Senate."

4. The interests of Iowans in small towns and rural areas

The February 18 statement from Boswell included the following quote:

Boswell said, "Bruce Braley has earned my endorsement and support. Bruce was born in a small town, grew up in rural Iowa, and has lived in Iowa his whole life. I've watched him fight passionately for Iowa's small towns, big cities, and working families.

Bruce Clark, president of the Iowa Postal Workers Union, said, "Bruce Braley gets things done for Iowa, and the proof is in the pudding. Bruce has worked hard to maintain postal services and maintain delivery standards for rural Iowa. He lobbied the Postal Service to keep small town Iowa post offices and Iowa mail processing facilities open, helping to save hundreds of jobs and keeping an economic lifeline open in dozens of communities. He'll do even more for Iowa in the US Senate."
Bruce Braley said, "I'm honored to have the Iowa Postal Workers' endorsement. I've worked in Congress to stand up for working families and prevent harmful cuts to postal service in rural Iowa. I believe I'll be an even more effective voice in the Senate to pursue policies that expand economic opportunities and create jobs."
Braley worked successfully in Congress to keep a number of small town post offices open in Iowa and prevent mail processing facilities from closing in Waterloo and Cedar Rapids.

From the March 27 press release announcing the Iowa State Association of Letter Carriers endorsement:

Jim Beach, President of the Iowa State Association of Letter Carriers, said, "We're proud to stand with Bruce Braley in his campaign for Senate. Bruce has been an ardent supporter of maintaining six day delivery, a service that if eliminated will cut thousands of working class jobs while negatively impacting rural communities, small business owners, and a growing number of seniors who use the mail to receive their prescriptions. As postal reform moves to the forefront, he'll be an even more effective voice for Iowa in the US Senate advocating for strengthening -- not shrinking -- the USPS."
Bruce Braley said, "I'm honored to have the endorsement of the Iowa Association of Letter Carriers. I've fought for policies in Congress that strengthen the middle class and help preserve the economic lifeline of the USPS in communities across Iowa. In the Senate, I'll keep fighting to create new economic opportunities for working Iowans and the communities they live in."

5. All Iowans, regardless of party affiliation

From the March 28 campaign press release:

Braley said, "When I was growing up in Brooklyn, Iowa, and someone had a problem, they didn't ask what party you belonged to. They asked for your help and they got it. I'm running for Senate to be an effective voice for Iowans of all backgrounds, and I'm thrilled to have Attorney General Miller and Treasurer Fitzgerald's endorsement today."

The final television commercial from Braley's 2012 re-election campaign used almost exactly the same wording.

The March 15 press release announcing support from the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Iowa - Local 199 included this comment from the candidate:

Rep. Bruce Braley said, "I'm honored to have the endorsement of SEIU Local 199. The men and women of SEIU get up every day and go to work to help others. That's the approach I hope to take to the US Senate, working hard to create jobs, strengthen the middle class, and reach across party lines to bring people together around policies that help Iowa."

Any comments about next year's U.S. Senate campaign are welcome in this thread.

Olson said, "I'm excited to endorse Bruce Braley for the US Senate. I make this endorsement not on behalf of the Iowa Democratic Party but as an individual - and as a longtime friend and supporter. No one is better suited to be in the Senate working for Iowa than Bruce. I know he'll fight to strengthen the middle class, stand up for veterans, and help small businesses grow and expand. I know this because I've watched him already accomplish so much for Iowa. It's time we got Bruce Braley to the US Senate so he can do even more."
Braley said, "I'm proud to have Tyler Olson's endorsement. Not only is Tyler a friend, but he's an experienced small businessman who brings a wealth of common sense experience to the Iowa House. I'm running for Senate to help strengthen the Iowa economy, and that means getting small businesses the resources they need to grow and expand. Tyler's support will help us get across the finish line."
Olson announced his endorsement during a "Facebook Chat" focused on entrepreneurship and small business growth hosted by Braley's campaign. The online event allowed Iowans from across the state to simultaneously participate in a virtual town hall-style event and ask Braley questions.
Yesterday, Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller and Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald announced their endorsement of Braley. Last month, Rep. Dave Loebsack and former Rep. Leonard Boswell endorsed Braley. And eight major labor organizations have endorsed Braley, including the Iowa State Association of Letter Carriers, the Iowa Postal Workers Union, the Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers Local 3 Iowa Union, UAW Region 4, SEIU Iowa - Local 199, AFSCME Iowa Council 61, the Iowa State

LATE UPDATE: John Deeth interviewed Braley on May 1. Excerpt:

Deeth: With this our first open seat race in 40 years, and the whole post-Citizens United dynamic, how do you keep your message going in a race like this once the outsiders start to pile on?
Braley: Well, I have done this enough to understand that you have to give voters a reason to show up and vote FOR you. You can't just depend on voter suppression to get them not to show up and vote for your opponent. And to me that means you've got to find a way to inspire voters into believing that you share their values, you understand the problems and concerns they deal with on a daily basis, you're going to be an effective listener, and you're going to take what you've learned and be a strong champion for the people of this state. That's going to be my strategy as I travel around the state talking about what I've done as concrete examples of bringing people together to solve tough problems, even when I was serving in the minority in the last Congress.

IA-01: How much will the Liberty movement help Rod Blum?

desmoinesdem — Thu, 28 Mar 2013 12:10:00 GMT

Yesterday Dubuque-based business owner Rod Blum formally announced his candidacy in the Republican primary to represent Iowa's first Congressional district. The same day, he received the endorsement of the Liberty Iowa PAC, formed two years ago by supporters of Ron Paul's presidential campaign. Both announcements are after the jump, along with my first thoughts on how much the Liberty movement could help Blum in the GOP primary.
Blum posted his announcement on his campaign website, RodBlum.com.

Dubuque businessman, Rod Blum, today announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination to Congress from Iowa's First Congressional District. Blum, a first time candidate in 2012, ran in the Republican primary and nearly upset nominee Ben Lange in a very close race 52% - 47%.
Citing widespread grassroots support and calls for him to run, Blum wrote in an email to voters in the First District, "with so many critical issues facing our country and the support of so many throughout Eastern Iowa, I have decided to enter the race to represent Iowa's First District in the United States Congress."
Also important to Blum was the issue of returning control back to local communities from Washington. "I will fight to keep more of our tax dollars in Iowa so those dollars may strengthen our schools, our infrastructure and our communities. Keeping your tax dollars here, keeps accountability here, where you have more control how and where they are spent."
Blum is a native of Dubuque. He received his undergraduate degree in Business from Loras College and his M.B.A. from the University of Dubuque. Following school he took a job in the computer industry and was C.E.O. of a software development company which eventually went public on the NASDAQ stock exchange. Blum has also been honored as Iowa High-Tech Entrepreneur of the Year by the prestigious award program sponsored by Ernst & Young. He currently is an owner of Digital Canal Software and is also a real estate developer.
A formal campaign event kickoff is planned for later this summer.
More information can be found at RodBlum.com.
###
Full Text of the announcement email below -
To the Voters of the First District:
The country we all love is in crisis. Tenets that made America the greatest country on Earth are under attack. Personal responsibility, fiscal sanity, the sanctity of life, constitutionally limited government and economic freedom are out of fashion in Washington DC. We all suffer when these principles are abandoned.
Most in Washington believe in the power of the government - I believe in the power of the individual, freedom and liberty. Millions of Americans, doing what's best for their families every day, are the miracle of the free market system. This system of economic freedom has given our families the highest standard of living in the world. But in the last decade of big government, more regulations and out of control government spending has resulted in lower incomes, higher costs and a smaller middle class.
Perhaps the greatest threat to Iowan families is our ever increasing national debt. Our leaders in Washington are addicted to spending and their fiscal insanity threatens to destroy our country. Our national debt has grown by 50% under President Obama and is now a staggering $142,000 per household and is on track to be an astounding $227,000 for every family in Iowa by 2023! Our children and grandchildren should not start out their adult lives with this huge debt on their backs because we didn't have the courage to deal with it.
The solution doesn't lie in ever-increasing taxes and spending; in fact federal tax revenues are projected to set an all-time record this year. As President Reagan often said, "We can't spend our way to prosperity". He understood that real and lasting prosperity can only be generated through free enterprise in the private sector. There is simply not a way to raise taxes high enough to balance current spending levels. The only answer is to send people to Washington who will vote to STOP the out-of-control spending, keep our markets free, and return our country to the limited government mandated by the Constitution.
When I traveled throughout the First District during my 2012 campaign, it confirmed my belief that there is something special about Iowans. I have been humbled by the number of these Iowans who have reached out to me, asking me to run. With this outpouring of grassroots support, and the critical issues facing our country, I have decided to enter the race to represent Iowa's First District in the United States Congress. I will carry the message of Thomas Jefferson to Washington when he said "the government that governs the best is closest to the people." I will fight to lessen the influence Washington has over our lives here in Iowa. I will fight to keep more of our tax dollars in Iowa so those dollars may strengthen our schools, our infrastructure and our communities. Keeping your tax dollars here, keeps accountability here, where you have more control how and where they are spent.
Changing Washington will not be easy. But rest assured I am not interested in becoming a career politician; rather I will go to Washington with a passion and belief that we can restore the principles and tenets that made America great. I ask you to join our team today - TOGETHER we can make Iowan families stronger and brighten the future for many generations to come.

Liberty Iowa Endorses Blum for U.S. Congress
PAC rallies Liberty Movement in support of Dubuque businessman
Wednesday, March 27th 2013
Des Moines, Iowa - Liberty Iowa has renewed its support of Rod Blum for U.S. Congress in Iowa's first congressional district. Blum, who announced his candidacy today, earned the PAC's support in 2012 as well, when his run ended with a narrow primary loss to Ben Lange.
"I'm thankful to accept the support of Liberty Iowa, and I believe that their endorsement highlights my unshakable commitment to protecting the civil liberties and Constitutional rights of Iowans who are concerned about the unchecked growth of government," said Blum.
Liberty Iowa, a state PAC that will celebrate its first anniversary in April, has quickly become a leading voice on issues like agricultural freedom and domestic drone use, and boasts a wide network of conservative and libertarian-leaning activists throughout the state. Adil Khan, Executive Director of LIPAC, believes that network will be a critical part of deciding the upcoming congressional election. "The nation is witnessing a surge of support for principled leaders willing to stand for the liberties of everyday Americans," said Khan. "Rod is that kind of leader, and we are going to work to bring the youth and enthusiasm of the Liberty Movement to bear for him in the first district."
Blum, who garnered 47% of the primary vote last year despite being a first-time candidate, acknowledges the importance of appealing to young liberty-minded voters as well as traditional fiscal and social conservatives. "The Liberty Movement has gained a tremendous amount of momentum among Republicans and Independents, and I want to invite voters from across the spectrum of conservatism to join me in fighting for limited government, sound money, and a responsible foreign policy," said Blum.
Liberty Iowa currently has active chapters in 13 counties within the first district, including the population centers of Linn, Dubuque, and Blackhawk.

During the 2012 Republican primary in IA-01, Ben Lange raised far more money, hired a larger campaign staff, and had far more establishment support in Iowa and nationally than Blum did. Nevertheless, the results were surprisingly close.

Blum declined to endorse a presidential candidate before the 2012 Iowa caucuses and did not even spend caucus night in his home county. Nevertheless, as mentioned above, he did win the Liberty Iowa PAC's support before the IA-01 primary.

In contrast, Lange jumped on Rick Santorum's bandwagon early and appeared at many Santorum campaign events around the first district in late 2011. I thought it would be interesting to compare Iowa caucus results with 2012 IA-01 primary results. Blum's best-performing counties did not overlap with Ron Paul strongholds.

For this table, I took 2012 Iowa caucus results from here and results for the June 2012 primary in IA-01 from the Iowa Secretary of State's website (pdf).

County	Caucus votes for Paul	Caucus votes for Romney	Caucus votes for Santorum	2012 votes for Lange	2012 votes for Blum
Allamakee	157	106	77	1,143	829
Benton	202	184	290	482	380
Black Hawk	870	835	774	1,737	1,269
Bremer	194	249	215	695	578
Buchanan	66	78	133	673	129
Clayton	198	116	110	248	262
Delaware	107	115	146	540	194
Dubuque	665	826	627	910	1,609
Fayette	134	136	172	1,025	483
Howard	34	51	108	111	100
Iowa	151	110	198	191	178
Jackson	163	139	92	202	196
Jones	167	200	180	331	222
Linn	2,089	2,530	1,818	2,106	2,238
Marshall	315	365	373	800	1,140
Mitchell	96	44	68	184	291
Poweshiek	197	116	155	427	318
Tama	126	132	148	462	352
Winnishiek	174	149	136	602	414
Worth	31	34	46	348	369

total	6,136	6,515	5,866	13,217	11,551

The table above does not include all of the Iowa caucus results. In some of the IA-01 counties, Newt Gingrich did well. Still, it's clear that turnout was larger for the June 2012 primary than for the Iowa caucus in January, and there is no obvious correlation between support for Ron Paul and for Rod Blum.

Lange has not indicated whether he will run for Congress a third time in IA-01. If he does, he may not receive as much backing from the establishment as he did in 2012. So far Blum's only definite competition in the IA-01 primary is Steve Rathje. Both men will run on a similar platform of "I know how to run a business, which helps me understand how to run the country."

Any comments about the IA-01 race are welcome in this thread.

New thread on the Iowa Congressional races

desmoinesdem — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 12:05:00 GMT

Dubuque business owner Rod Blum told the Marshall County Republican Central Committee this week that he plans to enter the GOP primary to represent the open first Congressional district. Blum finished a close second to Ben Lange in the 2012 IA-01 primary. Cedar Rapids business owner Steve Rathje was the first Republican to announce in IA-01. I haven't heard any news lately about other possible Republican candidates in the first district, like State Representative Walt Rogers or former Secretary of State Paul Pate.

Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer predicted on Sunday that the first Iowa woman elected governor or to Congress will be a Republican. If no Democratic woman steps up in IA-01, I believe Upmeyer will be proven right. I have heard from several independent sources that State Senator Liz Mathis is privately telling Democrats she won't run for Congress. Senate President Pam Jochum took herself out of the running last month. Former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate so far. State Senator Steve Sodders is talking with potential supporters about the race.

I haven't heard about any Republican planning to run against four-term Democrat Dave Loebsack in IA-02. For now, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee does not appear worried about holding this district.

According to the Des Moines rumor mill, former State Senator Staci Appel is considering a run for Congress in IA-03. Appel lives in Warren County and served one term in the Iowa Senate before losing to Republican Kent Sorenson in 2010. Mike Sherzan is currently the only declared Democratic challenger to ten-term Republican Tom Latham.

I haven't heard of any Democrats planning to challenge six-term incumbent Steve King in IA-04. I'm still confident King will not run for the U.S. Senate. But if King does leave the fourth district open, many Republicans are rumored to be thinking about that race, including Upmeyer and State Representative Chip Baltimore.

Any comments about next year's Congressional races in Iowa are welcome in this thread. A Congressional map is after the jump, along with the latest voter registration numbers in each district and Stuart Rothenberg's comments on why he does not consider Latham or King vulnerable in 2014.

Active voter registration totals in the Congressional districts as of March 2013, according to the Iowa Secretary of State's office:

IA-01: 165,428 Democrats, 137,943 Republicans, 193,674 no-party voters

IA-02: 174,351 Democrats, 140,684 Republicans, 185,578 no-party voters

IA-03: 159,575 Democrats, 165,595 Republicans, 157,163 no-party voters

IA-04: 131,552 Democrats, 180,956 Republicans, 178,651 no-party voters

Excerpt from Stuart Rothenberg commentary in Roll Call: Is the House in Play? A District-by-District Assessment.

Republican Rep. Tom Latham of Iowa defeated another incumbent, Democrat Leonard L. Boswell, running in territory very different from the Republican's district last decade. Because of that, Latham's 8-point victory - in a district that President Barack Obama won by more than 4 points - is a sign of strength, not vulnerability.
Similarly, Republican Rep. Steve King's 8-point victory in another Iowa district over a highly touted Democrat isn't a sign of vulnerability. King beat Christie Vilsack, wife of the former governor and current secretary of Agriculture, by almost the identical margin that Mitt Romney beat Obama in the district, suggesting a polarized electorate with a clear Republican bent.

Weekend open thread: Health and happiness edition

desmoinesdem — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 15:05:00 GMT

Happy St. Patrick's Day to Bleeding Heartland readers who celebrate the occasion. This is an open thread; all topics are welcome. For a laugh, enjoy The Onion's recent write-up of Iowa fashion week: "The big themes this season are 'roomy,' 'loose,' and 'comfortable.'"

After the jump I've posted a few links about health and happiness, including details from Gallup's 2012 report on well-being in the United States. Iowa ranked ninth on the "Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index" but was not one of the "elite five states" that have shown consistently high levels of resident well-being over five years.
You can read Gallup's full 2012 report here (pdf). Gallup surveys in all 50 states collected data on six factors. Here's the methodology:

The research and methodology underlying the Gallup- Healthways Well-Being Index and the Community, State and Congressional District Well-Being Reports are based on the World Health Organization definition of health, which is, "...not only the absence of infirmity and disease but also a state of physical, mental and social well-being."
To compile the data in the 2012 Gallup-Healthways Well- Being Index reports, Gallup completed telephone interviews with 1,000 U.S. adults, seven days a week, excluding only major holidays. Based on their responses, individuals and communities receive an overall well-being composite score and a score for each of six sub-indices including life evaluation, emotional health, physical health, healthy behavior, work environment and basic access.

The top ten states in well-being were Hawaii, Colorado, Minnesota, Utah, Vermont, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Massachusetts.

Iowa's statewide ranking has bounced around quite a bit during the last five years. Our state ranked 26th in Gallup's 2008 report on well-being, then jumped to seventh in 2009 before dropping to 19th in 2010 and rising to 16th in 2011. Gallup notes that the "elite" five states of Hawaii, Utah, Minnesota, Colorado, and Montana " have shown a sustained level of excellence over 5 years."

Compared to residents of low well-being states, residents of elite well-being states:
* Rate their lives much better, today and in the future
* Have better emotional health, including much lower clinically diagnosed depression and daily sadness
* Have much lower obesity
* Carry substantially reduced disease burden, including lifetime high blood pressure, diabetes, high cholesterol, heart attack incidences and chronic physical pain
* Enjoy their jobs more
* Smoke a lot less, but exercise much more

The states with the worst well-being scores were all concentrated in the Bible belt and rust belt; you can view a nationwide map on page 2 of Gallup's report, or along with this newspaper article.

Page 5 of the pdf file shows each state's ranking on all six indicators. Iowa's best categories were for "basic access" (third), "work environment" (fourth), and "physical health" (eighth). We were eleventh in "emotional health" but only 27th in "life evaluation" and way down in 36th place for "healthy behaviors."

No Iowa cities made the Gallup lists of top ten mid-size or small communities. The Des Moines/West Des Moines metro area ranked 21st overall, Cedar Rapids metro area ranked 24th, Omaha/Council Bluffs ranked 27th, and the Quad Cities ranked 65th.

Pages 15-17 of the report rank all 435 Congressional districts and Washington, DC in terms of well-being. None of Iowa's four Congressional districts made the top ten list, but three of them ranked in the top 20 percent: IA-04 was 53rd overall, IA-03 was 67th, and IA-01 was 79th. However, IA-02 was way down in the third quintile at 201st overall in well-being. Although California was not in the top ten states overall, five of the country's top ten Congressional districts are located in California (page 1 of the pdf).

I wonder why IA-04 ranked highest on Gallup's well-being index. Compared to Iowa's other three Congressional districts, IA-04 has the oldest population, the lowest median income, and the lowest level of educational attainment.

According to some research, senior citizens "reported less negative thinking compared to other age groups, leading to greater life satisfaction." Happiness has also been shown to increase with age, although certain age cohorts (people born during the same years) had higher levels of well-being than others.

When the researchers analyzed the data across the whole pool of participants, older adults had lower levels of well-being than younger and middle-aged adults.
But when Sutin and her colleagues analyzed the same data while taking birth cohort into account, a different trend appeared: Life satisfaction increased over the participants' lifetimes. This trend remained even after factors like health, medication, sex, ethnicity, and education were taken into account.
So what explains the different results?
While life satisfaction increased with age for each cohort, older birth cohorts -- especially people born between 1885 and 1925 -- started off with lower levels of well-being in comparison to people born more recently. Looking at life satisfaction across all of the participants, regardless of when they were born, obscures the fact that each cohort actually shows the same underlying trend.
Sutin and colleagues point out that the level of well-being of cohorts born in the early part of the 20th century, particularly those who lived through the Great Depression, was substantially lower than the level of well-being of cohorts who grew up during more prosperous times. The greater well-being of more recent cohorts could be the result of economic prosperity, increased educational opportunities, and the expansion of social and public programs over the latter half of the 20th century.

Alternatively, "a specific peptide, a neurotransmitter called hypocretin" may be the key to happiness.