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Bleeding Heartland
It's what plants crave.
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poll 
Wed May 06, 2009 at 12:25:43 PM CDT
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I'm so disappointed in Terry Branstad. I had a post in my head about why he won't get back into politics and was all set to write it when he scooped me by telling the Des Moines Register that he won't run against Governor Chet Culver next year.
It's a smart move for Branstad. He served four terms as governor already and has a good job as president of Des Moines University. Why give that up to seek the Republican nomination, which would be far from a sure thing?
I know, a recent Republican poll showed that
Nearly half of likely Iowa voters said they wanted their next governor to be a lot or somewhat like Branstad [....] About a third said they wanted someone somewhat or very different from Branstad.
A generic GOP candidate described in the poll as "a widely respected, former statewide elected official who has managed Iowa through troubled times before" rated highest in the poll. Branstad's tenure coincided with the Iowa farm crisis of the 1980s.
Despite those poll findings, I don't think Branstad would have had a smooth ride in the GOP primary. As a three-term sitting governor he nearly lost the 1994 primary to Congressman Fred Grandy. I bet a lot of Republicans wish they could have that one back--with Governor Grandy as an incumbent Iowans probably would not have elected Tom Vilsack or any other Democrat in 1998.
In the middle of his fourth term as governor, Branstad backed Lamar Alexander for president. We all saw how influential that endorsement was in the 1996 caucuses.
Even if Iowa Republicans were eager to nominate Branstad for governor again, would that be smart when the public already views Republicans as "backward-looking" and Democrats as "the party of the future"?
I'll have more to say about the recent Republican poll in the next few days. I wasn't surprised to read that Vermeer Corporation chief executive Mary Andringa also told the Des Moines Register that she's not running for governor next year. Republican moderates like Doug Gross want a candidate from the business community, but I don't think Culver looks vulnerable enough now. Leaving a senior corporate job to run a serious campaign for governor is a big risk. Even the Republican poll, which had a fairly high ratio of Republicans to Democrats in the sample, found Culver at 52 percent approval and 35 percent disapproval. Culver's re-elect numbers are somewhat lower, but I stand by my opinion that he is not yet in the danger zone for an incumbent.
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Mon Apr 07, 2008 at 15:37:29 PM CDT
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Over at Century of the Common Iowan, noneed4thneed put up a link to the latest Rasmussen poll of Iowa. Holy cow--Obama beats McCain here 46 percent to 42 percent, but Hillary loses to McCain 51 percent to 36 percent. McCain has hardly ever campaigned here and finished fourth in the Republican caucuses. Noneed4thneed noted that Rasmussen found McCain leads Clinton by a two-to-one margin among unaffiliated voters. However, Obama leads McCain 46% to 37% among those same voters. The latest round of Survey USA polls had a similar finding (sorry, no link). Obama and Hillary look poised to win a comparable number of electoral votes against McCain, but they do it in different ways. Obama was ahead in Iowa against McCain, but Hillary was trailing the Republican. Assuming Obama is the Democratic nominee, I have to believe he would be heavily favored to win Iowa. Rasmussen's poll may show his lead within the margin of error, but Obama has a huge volunteer army to draw on here from the caucuses, while McCain didn't build any kind of organization in Iowa.
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Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 14:53:32 PM CDT
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Highlighting his considerable foreign expertise, Governor Bill Richardson last week set forth a path to avoiding military confrontation with Iran over its nuclear program. Richardson called on Bush administration to stop threatening Iran with "incendiary rhetoric," and instead recognize our interests in engaging Iran diplomatically. Richardson's week ended with a well-received speech before Latino leaders in Florida. Decrying the tone of the debate in the Senate on the immigration bill and how Latinos are portrayed in the media, Richardson asked: Do you notice that when they depict immigrants, they have someone crossing a wall, jumping as if they are criminals? How about the farmers who break their backs working or those who are cleaning the toilets and working at the hotel where we stay? How about the American media covering the immigrant who died protecting his country? Also of note, Pollster.com added Richardson to its Top Democrats charts, joining Clinton, Obama and Edwards. Charles Franklin of Pollster.com stated, "For other Democratic candidates, we've not seen a substantial upturn anywhere. Richardson stands alone in that respect at the moment." For a full review of Richardson's week, continue reading.
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Tue May 01, 2007 at 13:27:41 PM CDT
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Sen. Hillary Clinton has wide leads in both New Hampshire and South Carolina in new polls released today and is within the margin of error in Iowa. Sen. Barack Obama is now in third place in Iowa and New Hampshire and is ahead of Edwards in South Carolina. Sen. John Edwards has moved into second place in New Hampshire.
http://bluesunbelt.c...
IOWA
John Edwards 27%
Hillary Clinton 23%
Barack Obama 19%
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Democratic caucus goers living in Iowa (475 Democrats and 125 no party (independent) voters). Sample Dates: April 27-30, 2007 Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Hillary Clinton 37%
John Edwards 26%
Barack Obama 14%
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Democratic primary voters living in New Hampshire (440 Democrats and 160 undeclared (independent) voters). Sample Dates: April 26-29, 2007
Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
SOUTH CAROLINA
Hillary Clinton 36%
Barack Obama 24%
John Edwards 18%
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Democratic primary voters living in South Carolina (517 Democrats and 83 independent voters).
Sample Dates: April 27-30, 2007 Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
http://americanresea...
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Tue Feb 27, 2007 at 15:19:04 PM CST
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The new Diego/Hotline open end poll shows Hillary Clinton with 32%, Barack Obama with 20%, and John Edwards trailing with a weak third place of 6% among Democratic voters.
Among all voters Hillary Clinton is the choice of 18% followed by Barack Obama with 12%, Rudy Guliani with 8%, and John McCain with 6%.
http://bluesunbelt.c...
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Sat Feb 24, 2007 at 01:05:59 AM CST
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The new Cook Political Report poll taken 2/15-18 shows Hillary Clinton 22 points ahead with 42%. Barak Obama is in second place with 20% followed closely by John Edwards with 16%. Bill Richardson is now in fourth place with 5%. The rest of the field has 1% each except for Chris Dodd who has less than 1%.
http://bluesunbelt.c...
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