Bleeding Heartland - polls

IA-Sen candidates mostly blank slates

desmoinesdem — Mon, 10 Jun 2013 01:45:00 GMT

Representative Bruce Braley and the Republicans seeking to replace U.S. Senator Tom Harkin are little known among Iowans, judging from the Des Moines Register's latest statewide poll. Selzer & Co. surveyed 809 Iowa adults for the Register between June 2 and 5 and found that 57 percent didn't know enough about Braley to express a favorable or unfavorable opinion about him. Even among respondents living in the first Congressional district, 34 percent were unsure about Braley.

The two declared Republican candidates for Senate, David Young and Matt Whitaker, were unknown to 74 percent and 82 percent of respondents, respectively. (For the record, I doubt that 26 percent of Iowans are truly familiar with Senator Chuck Grassley's chief of staff. David Young is a fairly common name.) Some 88 percent said they were unsure about State Senator Joni Ernst, who is considered likely to run for Senate. Quinnipiac's recent Iowa poll also indicated that few voters have an opinion about the likely Senate candidates.

The good news for all the candidates (including those not polled, such as Republican Sam Clovis) is that they have time to raise name recognition. Braley may also be relieved to know that of the respondents who expressed an opinion, 29 percent viewed him very or mostly favorably, while only 14 percent viewed him very or mostly unfavorably.

Any comments about the Senate race are welcome in this thread.

IA-Gov: Latest Register poll finds Branstad in great shape

desmoinesdem — Sun, 09 Jun 2013 15:50:00 GMT

The latest statewide poll by Selzer & Co. for the Des Moines Register finds Governor Terry Branstad in a strong position if he seeks re-election next year. Among 809 Iowa adults surveyed between June 2 and 5, 58 percent approved of Branstad's performance as governor, while only 32 percent disapproved and 10 percent were not sure. Today's Sunday Des Moines Register contains more details on the poll, which also found that 56 percent of respondents think things in Iowa are headed in the right direction, and 54 percent view Branstad favorably. Likely Democratic candidate Jack Hatch had very low name recognition in the poll, and in a head to head contest, respondents favored Branstad over Hatch by 55 percent to 27 percent.

Shrinking media budgets have reduced the frequency of public polling. I wish we knew whether the governor's approval rating has been at this level for some time, or whether Branstad got a bump out of progress made at the end of the legislative session (Last month Quinnipiac conducted its first statewide poll in Iowa and found Branstad's approve/disapprove numbers at 49/31.)

Either way, a governor with a good approval rating and a healthy campaign bank account is a strong favorite to win a sixth term if he wants one. Iowans failed to re-elect a governor only once during the last half-century, in the aftermath of the worst recession since World War II. Share any comments about the governor's race in this thread.

IA-Sen candidates mostly unknown, Quinnipiac poll shows

desmoinesdem — Fri, 24 May 2013 12:35:00 GMT

All of the candidates seeking to replace U.S. Senator Tom Harkin will need to work hard on raising their name ID in the coming year, judging from the new Quinnipiac University poll. Quinnipiac surveyed 1,411 registered Iowa voters between May 15 and 21, producing a margin of error of +/- 2.61 percentage points. Representative Bruce Braley, who is so far unchallenged in the Democratic primary, is the best known of the Senate contenders, but even so, 57 percent of respondents said they had not heard enough about him to form an opinion. Braley was in positive territory (27 percent favorable/14 percent unfavorable) among the respondents who expressed an opinion.

Quinnipiac asked Iowans about five potential Republican candidates for Senate. Although Secretary of State Matt Schultz holds a statewide office, 81 percent of respondents said they had not heard enough about him to form an opinion. About 11 percent had a favorable view of Schultz, 7 percent unfavorable.

The other possible GOP candidates were even less well known. Former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker's numbers: 8 percent favorable, 4 percent unfavorable, 86 percent haven't heard enough. State Senator Joni Ernst: 5 percent favorable, 3 percent unfavorable, 92 percent haven't heard enough. Iowa GOP chair A.J. Spiker: 2 percent favorable, 6 percent unfavorable, 91 percent haven't heard enough. Senator Chuck Grassley's staffer David Young: 3 percent favorable, 2 percent unfavorable, 94 percent haven't heard enough.

Several of those Republicans are much more widely known among GOP activists. Still, the Quinnipiac poll indicates that the eventual nominee will have plenty of work to do before the June 2014 primary. Then again, the competitive GOP race will generate a lot of media coverage next spring, while Braley could be fighting to keep his name in the news without a rival on the Democratic side.

Speaking of Republican competition, Sioux City-based college professor and talk radio host Sam Clovis may run for Senate. He told Bret Hayworth of the Sioux City Journal that he is "deeply steeped in the intellectual aspects of conservatism" and could appeal to the primary voters who are "ready for a red-meat conservative." The Iowa Republican's Craig Robinson reported that Young has resigned his position on Grassley's staff, is buying a house in Dallas County, and has retained consultants and a pollster for a Senate race. Meanwhile, Whitaker is already moving to the right on "Obamacare."

IA-Gov: Good news and bad news for Branstad in new Quinnipiac poll

desmoinesdem — Thu, 23 May 2013 15:25:00 GMT

A new statewide poll by Quinnipiac University shows Governor Terry Branstad's approval rating comfortably in positive territory, but Iowans split down the middle on whether he should be re-elected.
Quinnipiac surveyed 1,411 registered Iowa voters between May 15 and 21, producing a margin of error of +/- 2.61 percentage points. The polling memo (or here in pdf format) includes the question wordings and cross-tabs for the part of the survey dealing with the governor's race.

Key findings: 49 percent of respondents approve of Branstad's work as governor, while just 31 percent disapprove.

Democrats disapprove 53 - 28 percent. There is a small gender gap, with men approving 55 - 29 percent, while women give him a thumbs up 44 - 32 percent.

On the other hand, 43 percent of respondents said Branstad doesn't deserve to be re-elected, while 42 percent said he does. From the polling memo:

"Gov. Terry Branstad's job approval numbers are just short of the 50 percent threshold and show a nearly 20 point spread between those who approve and disapprove of his job performance," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The fact that voters are split on the question of whether Gov. Branstad deserves another term in Des Moines is probably a bit disconcerting for the governor. It could be that some voters like what he has done in office but that 20 years in the governor's office is just too long."
[...] Republicans say he deserves four more years 67 - 18 percent, but Democrats say no 66 - 19 percent and independent voters are split by a 43 - 41 percent margin. Men are divided as 48 percent say yes to another Branstad term and 41 percent say no. Women say no 44 - 36 percent.
"The governor's reelection numbers are a contrast with his approval ratings and are worth noting," said Brown. "Yet, the lack of any major Democratic challenger with widespread name recognition and the cash to wage a very expensive campaign probably makes the governor a better reelection bet than the numbers indicate. After all, voters may think he has been governor too long, but that doesn't necessarily mean they will vote to replace him."

This poll won't put Branstad's team into panic mode. He is still in positive territory. About 66 percent of respondents said the economy is good or excellent. He will have plenty of money to boost his image and tarnish his eventual opponent. The final results from the 2013 legislative session will probably help him build a narrative about accomplishing education reform, property tax cuts, and forming an Iowa alternative to Medicaid expansion.

I have questions about the party ID weighting in the survey. Quinnipiac asked respondents, "Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?" The "weighted" results used show 26 percent Republicans, 31 percent Democrats, and 37 percent no-party voters. Iowa Democrats currently have only a small statewide voter registration advantage, and it's way too early to predict which party will have better GOTV in the fall of 2014.

More important, independents are far less likely to participate in midterm elections. So while a plurality of Iowa voters identify as independents, that group will certainly not be the largest group of voters in the 2014 general election.

The statewide statistical report for the 2006 general election shows that among Iowa voters who cast ballots, 384,983 were registered Democrats, 386,382 were Republicans, and just 273,094 were no-party voters.

The statewide statistical report for the 2010 general election shows that among Iowa voters who cast ballots, 395,312 were Democrats, 447,445 were Republicans, and just 281,546 were no-party voters.

Even though Iowa's registered no-party voters were a larger group in 2006 and 2010 than either Democrats or Republicans, their participation rate was very low compared to partisans in the November election.

Any comments about the governor's race are welcome in this thread. I expect State Senator Jack Hatch to announce a gubernatorial campaign soon. He was one of the key negotiators who struck a deal this week over expanding health insurance coverage for low-income Iowans. Last night Hatch voted for Senate File 295, a bill including commercial property tax cuts and other provisions. Another possible Democratic candidate for governor, State Senator Rob Hogg, was one of the six Democrats who voted against that tax bill. I totally agree with Hogg here: "Just because it's a compromise doesn't mean it's a good compromise."

Several people who watch Iowa politics closely have suggested to me in recent days that Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal pushed his caucus hard for a property tax deal with a view toward running for governor himself.

IA-Gov: Latest signals from Terry Branstad and Jack Hatch

desmoinesdem — Tue, 14 May 2013 14:48:00 GMT

Does anyone still doubt that Governor Terry Branstad plans to run for a sixth term next year? Those not convinced should read Mike Wiser's report on the full-time staffer just hired by Branstad's re-election campaign.

Meanwhile, Democratic State Senator Jack Hatch dropped a couple of hints lately about a possible run for governor.
Branstad's re-election campaign raised more than a million dollars last year and had $1,461,929.66 cash on hand as of January. Wiser reported last week that Phil Valenziano is now working full-time for Branstad's re-election effort. Valenziano was a field organizer for Mitt Romney's 2008 presidential campaign, later worked in the Iowa GOP's Cedar Rapids office, clerked for State Representative Chip Baltimore during the 2011 Iowa legislative session, and was state director for Romney's campaign in New Hampshire last year. He told Wiser that he will focus on "grassroots organizing" as well as handling summer parades and other events for the Branstad-Reynolds campaign.

The governor's communications director Tim Albrecht told Wiser that hiring staff is not a formal campaign announcement, but let's be serious. At the end of next year, Branstad will be ~~the third longest serving governor~~ in U.S. history. Winning and completing a sixth term would make him our country's longest-serving governor. CORRECTION: He's already the second-longest serving governor if you count George Clinton, who governed New York before and after the Constitution was ratified. The Smart Politics blog already gives Branstad the top spot, excluding Clinton's leadership before statehood. Barring some unknown major health problem, I can't imagine any scenario in which Branstad retires next year.

Up to now, Bob Krause has been the only Democrat to confirm that he is thinking about running against Branstad next year.

State Senator Jack Hatch has been rumored to be considering the race as well. He's up for re-election next year in Senate district 33, covering neighborhoods in central Des Moines and part of the south side. But the Des Moines Register's Jennifer Jacobs and Jason Noble reported on May 9,

Late last month, however, Hatch closed down the "Neighbors for Hatch" campaign committee that has served his state Senate runs and opened in its place a brand new committee, records from the Iowa Ethics & Campaign Disclosure Board show.
It's got the same name, the same treasurer, the same chairperson and even the same $7,935.48 in cash on hand. The difference? This new committee is specifically designated for a gubernatorial race.
Reached by phone on Friday, Hatch confirmed the committee's creation, but said it still represented only "an acknowledgment that I'm thinking about it."
He promised a full statement on the matter once the legislative session ends.

As chair of the Iowa Senate health and human services budget subcommittee, Hatch is a key negotiator for Democrats on the health and human services budget and the Medicaid expansion. It's understandable that he is focused on legislative work right now.

Still if he weren't planning to run for governor, would this Polk County senator be a featured speaker at the Johnson County Democrats' Hall of Fame event on May 11? John Deeth was there:

Hatch acknowledged that recently leaked news that he'd formed an exploratory committee for governor, and he pledges to stand on principle. "For the first time in 8 years, we'll have a governor who won't make decisions based on polls," he said, in an implied shot at Chet Culver. "Democrats win when we vote with our heart."
Health care, now stalled in the legislature, has been Hatch's signature issue. "Iowa has highest percentage of children with health insurance in the country," but calling the Republican proposal "the most cynical legislation I've ever seen. It would cost more money and provide less care."

Here's the link to the new Neighbors for Hatch committee. Like any other potential Democratic candidate for governor, Hatch would start out with lower name recognition and a much lower bank balance than Branstad. (I am discounting the Des Moines Register's ongoing speculation that Tom Vilsack might run for governor, because I see little sign he's seriously thinking about running.)

Any comments about the governor's race are welcome in this thread. Several other Democratic senators are reportedly thinking about the campaign, including Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, Senate President Pam Jochum, and Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Rob Hogg.

UPDATE: A few weeks ago, the Democratic Governors Association asserted that Branstad is vulnerable. From Mike Wiser's report:

Branstad, according to the poll, is in the middle with a 45 percent favorability rating, not bad, but not at the magic 50 percent or higher mark.
The Democratic Governors Association poll shows Branstad would lose to a generic Democrat in the race. Association spokesman Danny Kanner, however, would not go into details on the numbers.
"It shows he's vulnerable," said Tyler Olson, a state representative from Cedar Rapids and chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party. "Terry Branstad has 1980's-style economic development policies and philosophies, that just doesn't cut it today." [...]
Kanner thinks Branstad is vulnerable on his opposition to Medicaid expansion and on the millions in tax breaks the administration offered an Egyptian-based conglomerate to build a fertilizer plant in Lee County.
Democratic Governors Association officials were in Iowa in the last month, which is when its poll was conducted. Kanner said the association also has had conversations with potential Democratic challengers, although he wouldn't go far as saying the group is trying to recruit any particular individual.
"We consider this a winnable seat in the 2013-2014 cycle," Kanner said. "It's one of the reasons we've been on the ground in Iowa this far in advance."

I would like to see a lot more details about that poll. I'm always suspicious when campaigns or political entities release partial numbers but not the full results, including questionnaire and cross-tabs.

It's too bad that media budget cuts have deprived us of frequent public polling during Branstad's term. When Chet Culver was governor, the Des Moines Register did more Iowa polls each year, and Survey USA measured approval ratings for Iowa's top politicians every month. It was easier to get a sense of the trends in Culver's approval rating.

From where I'm sitting, Branstad goes into next year's election strongly favored. The last couple of surveys by Public Policy Polling suggested his approval rating improved from 2011 to 2012. He will take credit for Iowa's low unemployment rate, even though Iowa had one of the country's lowest unemployment rates throughout the Great Recession. He will take credit for the large state budget surplus, even though the last budget approved by a Democratic legislature and signed by Culver also ended in surplus. He will use creative accounting to claim that he has met his job creation goals, despite the facts about job growth in Iowa. If the 2010 election coverage is any guide, the mainstream media will not scrutinize Branstad's serial lies and distortions.

IA-Sen: Did someone force Steve King's hand?

desmoinesdem — Mon, 06 May 2013 16:40:00 GMT

The more I think about Steve King's Friday night announcement that he will not run for U.S. Senate in 2014, the more I suspect that someone rushed him into that decision.
Consider King's previous comments on his timetable for deciding on a Senate race.

February 11:

No, there's not a timeline on it, but I don't think it's something that should be done urgently, hastily, or emotionally. It needs to be done analytically. [...] If I had made a decision the first day, it would have not allowed for Iowans to weigh in on this. Those that think I should and those that think I shouldn't, let me know, and let me know why. I want to weigh all of that [...] In the end we take all of that and see if my head, heart and gut come together, but part of that also is family and it's faith.

March 25:

He said a decision is likely soon, although he didn't want to be pinned down to a specific date to make an announcement. He said he plans a meeting with his top campaign people in about a week, adding that he recognizes other Republicans are interested in running in 2014 for his House seat and for the Senate seat that Harkin plans to vacate when he retires.

April 29:

"I've said for several weeks now that it wouldn't be for very long," King told TheIowaRepublican.com. "I've got an opportunity to be in Iowa this coming week and it's one of the things I've promised myself is to turn my focus to that decision-making. There are a number of meetings that I'll be having throughout that period of time and we'll see where it goes." [...]
"I feel like I'm a carpenter's level on the arm of a rocking chair and it just keeps going back and forth, the bubble between one direction and the other," King said. "I owe Iowans an answer as soon as possible and I really appreciate so many of my friends and colleagues that have given me deference and time to make this decision, but I owe it to them to get to that decision very quickly."

May 1:

He said he never expected to still be undecided in May. "Things are stacking up on me so fast, I hardly have time to deal with the issue," the Kiron Republican said. He cited events pending in Congress, especially the farm bill and the immigration issue.
"I've just been pinned down doing my job, believe it or not," he said. "It just keeps me busy representing people in Congress."
A reporter asked if he'd have time to run for Senate, if he's too busy to decide whether to run. "It's a management issue," King said.
He said he needs "a little bit of time to have some conversations around the state, and a little bit around the country." He said fundraising is part of those conversations. "Also, how to do arrange it, how do you plan if you're going to launch, how do you do that."
He thanked other Republicans who have indicated they would wait to learn King's plans before announcing their own intentions for the Senate. "They've given me some deference here. You can't ask for a better situation, a lot of Republicans want to get the right thing done in the state."

In light of those comments and Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey's May 2 statement that he hoped King would run for Senate, I expected King to wait a while before calling the inevitable press conference to explain why he was staying in Iowa's fourth Congressional district. I figured his excuse would be a desire to protect his family from the strain of a long statewide campaign. Instead, he cited a patriotic duty to focus his full attention on fighting the Left in the House.

I didn't expect a Friday-evening news dump via twitter and King's Congressional campaign website, two days after he told journalists he needed more time to have conversations around Iowa and the country.

It's no secret that some Iowa Republicans were getting tired of waiting for King. Some GOP strategists are starting to worry about Bruce Braley's head start on fundraising and campaigning around the state. Former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker has a Senate campaign website ready to go but didn't want to run against King. State Senator Joni Ernst said she'd like to decide within 30 days on a Senate race, but also would not challenge King in a primary. Senator Chuck Grassley's chief of staff David Young and former State Representative Rod Roberts are exploring the Senate race too.

King claimed during a recent Iowa Public Television appearance that the Senate race would be an "uphill battle" for Republicans but that his own polling showed a "path to victory." I believe that any well-conducted statewide poll in Iowa would show Bruce Braley dominating Steve King. Bleeding Heartland user 2laneIA heard from an Iowa Republican activist that some of the private polling on the IA-Sen race showed King losing to Braley by as much as 30 points. I have no way of confirming that rumor, but it would not surprise me.

I wonder whether someone warned King that discouraging poll numbers would be leaked to a journalist soon if he did not hurry up and get out of the way.

The Iowa Republican blog's publisher Craig Robinson politely described King as a potentially "formidable" Senate candidate, but the more honest Republicans admit that Governor Terry Branstad was right: King couldn't do well enough in eastern Iowa to win a statewide race.

Spin your own scenarios in this thread.

IA-Sen: Tom Latham speculation thread

desmoinesdem — Mon, 18 Feb 2013 13:05:00 GMT

Many Republicans are thinking about running for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat next year, but the field is frozen until Representatives Tom Latham (IA-03) and Steve King (IA-04) make their intentions clear. King has indicated that he needs to battle "elites" like Karl Rove before he can analyze a possible Senate bid. That suggests Latham will be the first to decide whether to seek the Republican nomination.
On the February 15 edition of the On Iowa Politics podcast, James Lynch of the Cedar Rapids Gazette commented that while he has predicted Latham will not run for U.S. Senate, he would now be "less surprised" to hear that the ten-term House incumbent is running after all.

I've heard from some people who were in Iowa working on the Mitt Romney campaign that they may be heading back to Iowa, and they're not coming back to work for Steve King. So that certainly suggests to me that Tom Latham is at least considering a Senate bid.

I wonder whether former Romney staffers might be coming back to work on Governor Terry Branstad's re-election instead. But Lynch is well-informed, so I'm inclined to believe his hunch. The Republican establishment wants Latham to be the Senate candidate; he's the only Iowan in Congress to draw more votes than his party's presidential nominee in every county in his district. It makes sense to dispatch veterans of the last presidential campaign to help lay the ground for Latham. If he weren't considering the Senate race, he probably would not have rushed to change the name of his campaign committee to "Iowans for Latham."

Tom Beaumont of the Associated Press reported on Friday that Branstad "has used private breakfasts with King and his House colleague Tom Latham to discuss who would be the strongest contender for [Tom Harkin's] seat." We already know Branstad's views on the matter. In November, the National Journal quoted the governor as saying that Latham would be "a very formidable candidate," but "I just don't think [King] can do it in Eastern Iowa." (See here.)

Several polls of Iowa Republicans have suggested that Latham would lose to King in a GOP primary. At face value, those polls are meaningless, because King would never run against Latham. However, they do suggest that Latham might be vulnerable to a candidate who inspires the right wing. As a 20-year incumbent, Latham would be the instant front-runner. Then again, Bill Salier--perhaps the wingnuttiest of all Iowa Republicans--was almost completely unknown before he drew nearly 41 percent in the 2002 IA-Sen primary against Representative Greg Ganske. Harkin won the general election by double digits, and on the Iowa Republican right, many believe (wrongly) that Ganske lost because he was not conservative enough.

Since then, quite a few long-shot Senate candidates have become Republican nominees against all odds. Latham hasn't yet been targeted by RINO-hunters. He hasn't cast many votes that would inflame the right. In fact, I'm struggling to think of a high-profile vote in the last five years that put Latham on the "wrong" side from the true believers. He voted against the 2008 Wall Street bailout bills, against the 2011 Budget Control Act that raised the debt ceiling, and against the recent deal to extend most of the Bush tax cuts while raising taxes slightly on the top earners.

Going back further in time, Latham voted for the Medicare Part D prescription drug benefit, for the No Child Left Behind education bill, and for various GOP budgets that included Planned Parenthood funding for contraception and Medicaid funding for abortion in limited circumstances. Perhaps Republicans would give him a pass on those long-ago transgressions. Conservative big mouth Steve Deace wrote shortly after Harkin announced his plans to retire,

Don't underestimate Congressman Tom Latham. [...] Branstad may be the only governor in America in either party who has absolutely no control of his own state party whatsoever. Any candidate seen as "his guy" is going to have a very hard time winning a primary. But Latham is a guy with an establishment temperament but also a fairly conservative voting record (I'm a conservative complainer, and I can't remember the last time I complained about him). He may be one guy that could easily coalesce the party for a united front next fall, and he just defeated former Democrat Congressman Leonard Boswell in a new district in what was otherwise a bad year for Iowa Republicans.

Latham would go into a primary with a lot of advantages, and his "buddy" House Speaker John Boehner will give him permission to vote against bills that might cause a problem in a Republican primary.

Still, my gut tells me that Latham will stay put in IA-03. I'm not as confident about that prediction as I am about King staying in IA-04, but I see it like this: Latham has a safe Congressional seat, chairs a House Appropriations subcommittee, and is likely to be in the majority caucus for the next decade, thanks to Republican gerrymandering. He doesn't have to work very hard. Travel around his Congressional district never takes him far from home and grandchildren in central Iowa.

Latham seems uncomfortable with risk. When I have seen him in public forums, he may bend over backwards to avoid taking a clear stand. Whereas King is eager to speak his mind about any issue, Latham is more likely to tell an audience that he wants to hear from all the stakeholders. He sends out fewer press releases and public comments than any other Iowan in Congress. To cite just one example, Latham alone in the Iowa delegation did not respond to media requests for his reaction to bipartisan immigration reform proposals last month.

Running for Senate would be a big risk for Latham. He might lose the Republican primary, caricatured as the stooge of the Karl Rove types. Or, he might lose the general election to Bruce Braley. If he defeated Braley, he'd be low on the totem pole in the Senate, possibly in the minority caucus. It would be a long time before he'd be in a position to chair a committee. He'd have to put in longer hours traveling to all 99 counties.

Latham could be a strong statewide candidate, but I doubt many Republicans believe he's their only hope against Braley. Why not leave the Senate race to candidates with more fire in the belly?

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

Weekend open thread, with highlights from latest Des Moines Register poll

desmoinesdem — Sun, 17 Feb 2013 13:25:00 GMT

What's on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread.

The Des Moines Register continues to release bits and pieces from the latest Iowa poll conducted by Selzer & Co. After the jump I've posted some of the more important findings, other than the IA-Sen numbers, which I discussed in this post. Like the Iowa .Gif-t Shop blog, I found it bizarre that the Register asked respondents whether they'd be "thrilled," "mildly happy," or "don't really care" about the prospect of certain national retailers opening an Iowa store.
Selzer & Co interviewed 802 Iowans at least 18 years old between February 3 and 6 for the latest poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent for the full sample.

The Register poll tested the approval ratings of these statewide politicians:

Governor Terry Branstad: 56 percent approve, 33 percent disapprove, 11 percent not sure. I find these numbers more believable than Public Policy Polling's latest poll, which put Branstad below 50 percent. Looking ahead to the 2014 governor's race, perhaps the best news for Branstad is that in the Register poll, 58 percent of respondents said things in Iowa are moving in the right direction. Only 28 percent said things are off on the wrong track here. In contrast, just 37 percent think things in the whole country are moving in the right direction; 51 percent said "wrong track" to that question.

Senator Tom Harkin: 55 percent approve, 28 percent disapprove, 17 percent not sure.

Senator Chuck Grassley: 62 percent approve, 22 percent disapprove, 16 percent not sure. Grassley typically has the highest approval rating of Iowa politicians.

Secretary of State Matt Schultz: 38 percent approve, 13 percent disapprove, 49 percent not sure. I'm surprised that many people do have an opinion about Schultz.

President Barack Obama's approval rating in this poll was just 49 percent, with 46 percent disapproving and 5 percent not sure. He polled better with the Iowa respondents on foreign relations than he did on the economy, the budget deficit, or managing relations with Congress.

Regarding policies state lawmakers are considering this year, Iowans are not convinced that commercial property tax cuts should be a priority.

Regarding possible cuts to commercial property taxes, a quarter of Iowans say the governor's plan to reduce the amount property owners pay by 20 percent is the right step, but believe a bigger cut could threaten the state budget. Another 24 percent call the tax cut a step in the right direction, but believe it doesn't go far enough.
Taken together, those figures suggest 49 percent - just short of a majority - support the concept of a tax break for the owners of commercial and industrial properties. [...]
Other Capitol players, though, noted a large slice of poll respondents - 41 percent - say commercial property taxes should not be cut at all.
Senate Majority Leader Michael Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs, suggested that opposition stems from a concern that reducing commercial property taxes will force an increase in residential taxes - something he says the Senate plan is specifically crafted to avoid.
"They understand if it's as simple as cutting commercial property taxes, they're probably going to end up picking up the tab," Gronstal said of those who oppose the reduction. [...]
Seventy-one percent of Iowans support reducing taxes on low-income earners, a result that appears to bolster calls from Democrats for expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit. Lawmakers twice approved such an expansion in 2011, but saw the bill vetoed each time by Branstad.

About 63 percent of respondents oppose raising the gas tax "by around 10 cents a gallon to pay for road and bridge repairs." Just 35 percent said they favor the gas tax hike. This is one battle the Iowa Farm Bureau and Iowa State Association of Counties will continue to lose at the statehouse, in my opinion.

A plurality of Iowans support using the state's budget surplus to improve K-12 education, according to the Register poll. About 45 percent of respondents support using the surplus to "devote more money to education reform for kindergarten through high school." Just 22 percent support giving "state taxpayers an income tax credit of around $375 per adult" (the plan Iowa House and Senate Republicans have been pushing). Another 20 percent favored using the surplus to expand Medicaid; the question wording's a bit suspect there, because expanding Medicaid wouldn't cost Iowa anything the first year, and would in fact save the state money by ending the IowaCare program. Just 7 percent of respondents said the state's surplus should be used for cutting commercial property taxes.

Regarding specific education reform proposals,

Four of six initiatives pushed by the governor - higher pay for beginning teachers, financial incentives for teacher leaders, tuition reimbursement for prospective teachers and revamped educator evaluations - receive support from 50 percent or more of Iowans. Iowans think those reforms would make a "major difference" in raising the quality of education in the state's schools.
Two of the initiatives receiving majority support, involving higher pay for beginners and teacher mentors, have the highest price tags of the proposed reforms.
A majority say two other proposals would make at least a minor difference - to expand online education and to pay for college- and career-readiness testing.

The Register's poll found less support for expanding Medicaid than a different recent poll commissioned by supporters of the policy.

In the Iowa Poll, 47 percent of Iowans say the state should expand its Medicaid program, and 46 percent say it shouldn't. Seven percent are unsure. The poll reflects the highly partisan flavor of the debate. Support for the expansion is 80 percent among Democrats, 44 percent among independents and 16 percent among Republicans. Fifty-two percent of women support the expansion, compared with 42 percent of men. [...]
Numerous health care and social welfare groups also are campaigning for Branstad to change his mind on the issue. One of them, the American Cancer Society, commissioned a poll that found Iowa voters supported the Medicaid expansion by 57 percent to 27 percent. That poll, which was done by two independent firms, did not note Branstad's concerns about the state's ability to afford the costs.

The Register's wrong on that last point; the other poll did mention Branstad's concerns about the cost but found the argument unpersuasive.

Although Iowans support certain gun control measures, according to this poll, Republicans who run the U.S. House and Iowa House won't care.

• An overwhelming majority of Iowans (88 percent) favor background checks for all gun sales, including those at gun shows and by private sellers.
• Sixty percent of Iowans support a ban on firearms commonly called assault weapons.
• Nearly the same number - 59 percent - favor limiting the size of ammunition clips to 10 rounds.
In general, women favor tightening gun laws at a greater rate than men, and city residents more than rural residents. For example, 74 percent of Iowa women support a ban on assault weapons, but only 47 percent of men do. Sixty-four percent of Iowans who say they live in cities favor a ban, but only 49 percent of Iowans who say they live in rural areas do.
In rural areas, there's a pronounced split in how men and women view a possible ban: 71 percent of rural women favor it; 30 percent of men do. [...]
While Iowans support changes to federal laws, they show less zeal for sweeping overhauls of state code. Fifty-three percent say gun laws are "about right the way they are," the poll shows.
A third of Iowans support more restrictive gun laws, up 7 percentage points from a year ago, but not a dramatic swing in the wake of recent mass shootings. [...]
Nearly three-quarters of Iowans believe that lack of available treatment for those with mental illness is a major factor in gun violence.
And more than a fourth of Iowans rank mental health issues as the single biggest reason for gun violence, nearly doubling any other factor offered in the poll.

IA-Sen: First Register poll since Harkin's announcement

desmoinesdem — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 14:33:11 GMT

The Des Moines Register's Friday edition includes the key findings from its first Iowa poll by Selzer & Co. on the 2014 U.S. Senate race. The top Democratic contender to replace Senator Tom Harkin would be former Governor Tom Vilsack, who has not expressed any interest in the campaign.
Selzer & Co interviewed 802 Iowans at least 18 years old between February 3 and 6. The margin of error for the statewide sample is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. You can read the complete Des Moines Register story here. Key findings:

56 percent of respondents say Tom Vilsack would be "an appealing candidate" for U.S. Senate. Just 35 percent said he would not be an appealing candidate.

Only two other candidates tested were in positive territory: 40 percent said Representative Tom Latham would be appealing, versus 34 percent who said no. About 36 percent said Representative Bruce Braley would be appealing, while 33 percent said he would not be. The question wordings identified Latham and Braley as congressmen from the third and first districts, respectively, but did not mention their political party affiliation. This poll was taken before Braley announced his campaign for the Democratic nomination yesterday.

The Register poll indicated that 42 percent of Iowans would view former First Lady Christie Vilsack as an appealing Senate candidate, while 46 percent would not. I wonder what this is about:

"She is not running," aide Jessica Vanden Berg told the Register, "because she is looking into another exciting opportunity." Vanden Berg declined to reveal more details.

Other tested candidates who drew more "not appealing" than "appealing" responses: Representative Steve King, Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds, Bob Vander Plaats, and former Governor Chet Culver.

Jennifer Jacobs' story also notes,

The percentage of Iowans who like Tom Vilsack as a Senate candidate exceeds those who don't by 21 points. That's evidence his approval runs deeper than just simple name recognition, Selzer said.
"Those are pretty solid numbers," agreed Jennifer Duffy, a nonpartisan political expert and senior editor for the Cook Political Report.
Although Vilsack's name always appears on short lists of possible Senate nominees, he has not yet publicly stated interest. But he hasn't knocked down the idea, either.
This groundswell of support is the kind of signal that could sway a potential candidate into running, Duffy said.
"It's a little bit complicated now that Braley has said he's in," she said. "Now it's just awkward. Braley would have to back away if Vilsack wanted to run, and that takes a little finesse on the part of national Democrats to make that happen."

I would be surprised if Vilsack tried to bigfoot Braley in this situation. He seems content running the U.S. Department of Agriculture. It's another story if Chuck Grassley retires in 2016. At that point I would not be at all surprised to see a Senate bid by Tom Vilsack.

Any comments about the Register poll or the 2014 Senate campaign are welcome in this thread.

New poll numbers on the race for governor and secretary of state

desmoinesdem — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 00:23:26 GMT

Governor Terry Branstad is a "pretty clear favorite" for re-election, according to a new Iowa poll by Public Policy Polling.
In a survey of 846 Iowa voters between February 1 and 3, Branstad leads former Governor Chet Culver in a governor's race by 50 percent to 40 percent, leads State Senator Jack Hatch by 48 percent to 33 percent, and leads State Representative Tyler Olson by 47 percent to 31 percent. (He's nearly tied with former Governor Tom Vilsack, who almost certainly won't run.) Branstad's approval rating among the poll respondents is 45 percent, with 44 percent disapproving of his performance as governor. The full polling memo is here (pdf); Tom Jensen's summary of results is here.

PPP also polled Republican Secretary of State Matt Schultz against Democrat Brad Anderson and found Anderson ahead by 33 percent to 31 percent. I wouldn't read too much into that finding, since only the most politically engaged Iowans know enough about either man to have an opinion. Schultz's favorable/unfavorable numbers were 12 percent/16 percent; Anderson's were 5 percent/7 percent. PPP did not test Schultz against former Secretary of State Michael Mauro, who is considering another campaign for his old job.

Another interesting finding from the PPP survey: 46 percent of respondents said same-sex marriage should be legal, while 43 percent said it should be illegal. In a poll by the same firm in October 2011, "only 41% of [Iowa] voters thought it should be legal to 48% who wanted it illegal."

IA-SEN: Latest comments from Latham and King

desmoinesdem — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 15:35:46 GMT

Representative Tom Latham (IA-03) told journalists in Washington yesterday that he is thinking about running for the U.S. Senate in 2014. He declined to specify when he will announce his plans, but he said he will "make my own decision" rather than be influenced by Representative Steve King (IA-04). Deirdre Walsh reported for CNN,

Pressed if he thinks a Senate bid by King could hurt the GOP's chances of taking the seat - something other national Republicans have expressed concerns over - Latham told reporters outside the House floor that King is "a very viable member of Congress."

If Latham wants the Senate seat, he would be advised to announce sooner rather than later. A few days ago, King told conservative talk radio host Larry O'Connor that he is "fifty-fifty" on running for the Senate seat. Click through to listen to King's comments. In weighing his decision, he is considering "whether the energy is out there" to support his bid and "whether we can raise the money" for a statewide race. I still expect King to stay in IA-04, where he's safe for the next decade, but he may be tempted to take on the Republican establishment.

The least likely scenario in my mind is Latham and King running against each other in a GOP primary. If one of them announces a Senate campaign, the other will stay out. A new Wenzel Strategies poll of "likely Republican primary voters" in Iowa found that King would be the early leader in a Senate primary, with Latham in second place and Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds third. Public Policy Polling surveyed Iowa Republicans over the weekend and found King leading among moderates as well as among respondents who described themselves as "very conservative."

UPDATE: I missed this story at the Rothenberg Political Report last night. Latham's changing the name of his campaign committee from "Latham for Congress" to "Iowans for Latham."

SECOND UPDATE: Michael Devine, a talk radio host for KVFD AM 1400 in Fort Dodge, posted on Facebook today, "Congressman Steve King told us this morning the chances are 'better than 50 percent' he will run for the Senate."

THIRD UPDATE: Excerpts from Public Policy Polling's latest Iowa poll findings are after the jump.
Public Policy Polling "surveyed 846 Iowa voters as well as 326 usual Republican primary voters from February 1st to 3rd. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-3.4% overall and +/- 5.4% for the GOP portion." Key findings:

In a hypothetical four-way Republican primary contest, King would lead the pack with 41% support, followed by 22% for Tom Latham, 10% for Kim Reynolds and 9% for Bob Vander Plaats. 17% were not sure who they want as next year's Republican nominee. 49% of very conservative primary voters would back King.
63% of primary voters view King favorably to 12% unfavorably. King would also be the clear choice if he were only running against Latham and Vander Plaats or just Latham.
King is down by 7 to 11 points against Bruce Braley (38/49), Tom Vilsack (39/49), Dave Loebsack (40/47) and Chet Culver (41/48). King loses moderate voters by roughly 40 points or more against each of these Democrats. [...]
Republicans would be much more competitive with Latham as their Senate candidate, partly because he attracts more moderate voters. Latham trails Braley by 3 points (41/44) and Vilsack by 4 points (46/42), and he leads Culver by 4 points (45/41) and Loebsack by 3 points (43/40). All of these results are within the margin of error. Latham's +14 favorability rating is significantly higher than the other GOP candidates who might run.

PPP's Tom Jensen concluded,

Overall Democrats appear to start out slightly favored in the race to replace Tom Harkin, and if a hard conservative like King or Vander Plaats wins the nomination they will start out with a pretty substantial advantage. Latham would start out behind Braley or Vilsack too, but would at least be within striking distance.

About 49 percent of respondents in the latest PPP poll approve of President Barack Obama's job performance, while 47 percent disapprove.

The poll didn't ask about current Governor Terry Branstad, but among former governors, Tom Vilsack is much more popular than Chet Culver. Vilsack's favorability numbers were 51 percent favorable, 36 percent unfavorable, 13 percent unsure. Culver's were 34 percent favorable, 46 percent unfavorable, and 20 percent unsure.

Poll shows Iowans support Medicaid expansion

desmoinesdem — Thu, 24 Jan 2013 20:35:00 GMT

Iowans support expanding Medicaid as provided under the 2010 health care reform law by more than a two to one margin, according to a new poll commissioned by the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network, which supports the policy.
The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network commissioned polls about the Medicaid expansion in seven states with Republican governors who oppose the policy or have expressed strong skepticism, like Iowa's Terry Branstad. (One of those governors, Susana Martinez of New Mexico, later embraced the Medicaid expansion.)

Lake Research Partners and GS Strategy Group surveyed 808 registered Iowa voters between December 13 and 22, producing a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent. The pollsters conducted 562 phone calls via landline and 246 via cell phone. The full polling memo is here (pdf).

Respondents in all seven states supported the Medicaid expansion. The most important finding for the Iowa poll is that 57 percent of respondents supported taking federal funds to cover more people in our state through Medicaid. Only 27 percent would rather see Iowa turn down the funds. Here is the relevant question wording:

Next I'd like to ask you about an issue being talked about by the governor and the state legislature. Under the new federal health care law, 20,000 people in Iowa who are uninsured right now could get health care coverage through Medicaid starting in 2014. The governor and state elected officials can choose to accept federal dollars that have been allocated to cover these people in Iowa, or to turn the money down and not cover these people. The federal dollars cover 100% of the costs in the first few years, and 90% of the costs after that.

The table on page three of the memo shows that almost every subgroup favored the Medicaid expansion. A majority of men, women, respondents in all four Congressional districts, all income levels, below age 50 and over age 50. Only the self-identified Republicans wanted Iowa to turn down the federal funding by a 49 percent to 33 percent margin. Independents in the survey supported the Medicaid expansion by 58 percent to 25 percent, while Democrats overwhelmingly back the policy by 86 percent to 6 percent.

Branstad has argued that Iowa can't afford to expand Medicaid, because doing so will be costly in future years, and we can't rely on the federal government to keep its promises on funding. The survey tested that argument against the case for expanding Medicaid.

Respondents were presented with common arguments on both sides of the debate:
Here are two sides to the issue. (ROTATE)
Side A says we can cover more people in Iowa and save taxpayer dollars that are currently spent on treating uninsured people in emergency rooms. Covering more people gives hard-working families the security of knowing they can get preventive care and see a doctor when they need to. The alternative is people showing up in the emergency room when they are sicker. By accepting the money, we could cover more people and save taxpayer dollars.
Side B says Iowa will eventually have to pay 10% of the costs of covering these people, and even more if the federal government fails to follow through on its promises. We cannot afford to spend even more on health care coverage, which is already a big part of the state budget. We have too many other priorities in the state that need attention, like education and roads. By turning down the money, we could avoid future increases in state health care spending.
Which side do you agree with more?

After hearing these arguments, Iowa voters agree more with reasons for accepting federal funds by a 21-point margin (55% vs. 34%).

The new survey also showed,

A majority of registered voters currently have health insurance coverage (92%). A third (36%) of voters, however, have one or more close friends or family members who is currently uninsured.
Among those who are not currently receiving coverage through Medicaid, 40% say either a close friend, family member, or they themselves have received coverage through Medicaid.

I'm surprised that only 40 percent of respondents said they had a close friend or family member who has been covered through Medicaid. Some people may not realize that Medicaid is not only for low-income individuals and families. Many elderly people in nursing homes, children with special needs, or adults with expensive chronic illnesses are covered through Medicaid.

Now that the legislature is back in session, I'm sure lobbyists for the American Cancer Society, the Iowa Medical Society, the Iowa Hospital Association, and other groups are doing everything they can to persuade Iowa House members to support the Medicaid expansion. The Democratic-controlled Iowa Senate is already on board with the policy.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. Here's a good read by Dylan Scott for Governing.com: Why GOP Governors Are Coming Around on the Medicaid Expansion. The math isn't complicated here.

Given the hatred for "Obamacare" among Republicans, though, I don't know whether Branstad can be convinced not to turn down the federal Medicaid funding. He had asked the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services whether Iowa could expand Medicaid somewhat, but not to the full extent foreseen in the 2010 Affordable Care Act. The federal government said no dice: "The law does not provide for a phased-in or partial expansion [...] As such, we will not consider partial expansions for populations eligible for the 100 percent matching rate in 2014 through 2016."

UPDATE: Here's more background on the organization that commissioned the poll, from their January 23 press release.

[American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network] is working in Iowa to support strong implementation of provisions of the ACA that enable people with cancer or at risk for cancer to access critical prevention measures such as mammograms and colonoscopies, treatments and follow-up care for cancer.
More information about the polling is available at www.acscan.org .
ACS CAN, the nonprofit, nonpartisan advocacy affiliate of the American Cancer Society, supports evidence-based policy and legislative solutions designed to eliminate cancer as a major health problem. ACS CAN works to encourage elected officials and candidates to make cancer a top national priority. ACS CAN gives ordinary people extraordinary power to fight cancer with the training and tools they need to make their voices heard. For more information, visit www.acscan.org .

IA-Sen: Harkin challenger speculation thread

desmoinesdem — Sun, 30 Dec 2012 15:15:00 GMT

All signs point toward U.S. Senator Tom Harkin seeking a sixth term in 2014. He loves his policy work and even passed up a chance to chair the Senate Appropriations Committee in order to continue as head of the Health, Education, Labor & Pensions Committee. In a December 27 e-mail blast from his campaign committee, Harkin indicated that he will "never stop" fighting for the middle class, even though certain "special interests" would love to send him "into early retirement." Citizens for Harkin finance director Jeremy Gold sent out another fundraising e-mail on December 29, including phrases like "We don't know for sure who will challenge Tom" and "Republicans are already lining up to challenge Tom."

I don't know about Republicans "lining up" to run against Harkin. Early handicappers inside the beltway consider this race a "likely Democrat" hold, and I agree for reasons Bleeding Heartland discussed here. Iowa's ambitious Secretary of State Matt Schultz already took himself out of contention as a challenger to Harkin in 2014. I would be shocked if either U.S. Representative Tom Latham (IA-03 in the new Congress) or Steve King (IA-04) gave up a safe House seat to be a long-shot in a statewide race. Public Policy Polling found Harkin leading both Latham and King in an October 2011 survey. A poll by the same firm last month found Harkin leading a generic Republican opponent by 48 percent to 40 percent.

Any speculation about Harkin's re-election campaign is welcome in this thread.

Weekend open thread: Possible Culver-Branstad rematch edition

desmoinesdem — Sun, 30 Dec 2012 02:10:00 GMT

Judging from this thread, Bleeding Heartland readers are interested in scenario spinning about the 2014 Iowa gubernatorial election. Former Governor Chet Culver is among several Democrats considering the race. I've posted a few thoughts about that prospect after the jump.

This is an open thread: all topics welcome.

UPDATE: Dave Wasserman continues to update presidential election popular vote totals on this spreadsheet. As of December 29, Barack Obama has exceeded 51 percent of the popular vote and is nearly 5 million votes ahead of Mitt Romney: 65,892,366 votes to 60,926,847 votes.
Earlier this week, James Lynch quoted Culver as saying he is "keeping my options open."

Culver, who campaigned in five states for President Obama [in 2012], enjoyed being back on the campaign trail --- "the fun part of politics."
Even before working as an Obama surrogate, Culver was thinking about 2014.
"At the supermarket, people come up to me and tell me I should run again," he said. "I'm encouraged by the level of support from Democrats, generally."
He'll begin actively exploring a 2014 run in the next few months, Culver said. [...]
It would be a clear choice, said Culver, who believes he had a great record to run on in 2010, but was hurt by the national economy.
"We got through some difficult times," he said. That includes state assistance to Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Coralville and many other Eastern Iowa communities damaged by flooding in 2008.
He'll remind Iowans that during the Culver administration the minimum wage was increased, smoking was banned in nearly all workplaces, preschool opportunities were expanded and more children received health care coverage.

I strongly supported all of those policies, as well as the under-rated I-JOBS infrastructure bonding program and Culver's efforts to promote passenger rail.

In addition, while Culver was governor Iowa handled its federal stimulus money well. For instance, our state turned around the transportation funding from the stimulus quickly and spent most of it on worthwhile projects.

On the whole, Culver was a good governor under difficult circumstances. It is grossly unfair that Republicans including Terry Branstad were able to push false narratives about "deficit spending" and I-JOBS borrowing. Independent analysts such as the three leading bond rating agencies agreed that Iowa managed its finances very well during the worst recession in 60 years.

Despite those facts, I am skeptical that Culver would have a good chance to beat Branstad in 2014. Life is unfair, and I'm afraid that too many people believe Republicans deserve the credit for Iowa's strong financial condition. Nor have I seen any evidence that a significant number of Branstad voters from 2010 have buyer's remorse. In part that's because the Democratic-controlled Iowa Senate has blocked some of Branstad's efforts that would have been unpopular. If Branstad had killed the preschool program, tens of thousands of Iowa families would have felt the impact directly. It's hard to get people fired up about Branstad trying to eliminate this funding when the Iowa Senate was able to save the day.

On December 26, Culver spoke to the Des Moines Register's Jason Noble.

"I'm in no rush," he said. "I don't feel any pressure."
He is considering forming an exploratory campaign committee, a move that would allow him to raise money while not formally declaring his candidacy. Culver said he's been encouraged to run, both by fellow Democrats and Iowans he's met informally while running errands around Des Moines.

If Culver forms an exploratory committee, the first major expenditure should be for serious polling and focus groups to see whether he could make an effective case against Branstad. In April 2011, Public Policy Polling found Culver slightly ahead of Branstad in a potential rematch, but in October 2011 the same firm found Branstad would defeat Culver by 51 percent to 40 percent. This year Branstad has had strong approval ratings in surveys by Public Policy Polling and Selzer and Co for the Des Moines Register.

Whoever takes on Branstad in 2014 will have a tough task ahead (and I have no doubt that he will run for a sixth term). I would rather see Democrats nominate a new candidate who can make a fresh case--preferably someone who does not have to give up a current elected office to run for governor.

Branstad is not as polarizing as some of the other Republican governors elected in 2010. He loves campaigning. Culver enjoyed being out on the stump for President Obama, but it's worth noting that the Obama campaign didn't schedule a lot of events for Culver in Iowa. In late October, they had him appearing at an event in Florida.

What do you think, Bleeding Heartland readers?

P.S.- Many Iowa politics-watchers expect Branstad to face a primary challenge in 2014, but I haven't heard any specific names mentioned. The governor would easily defeat a GOP primary challenger in my opinion. He's not nearly as unpopular now as he was in 1994, when he barely survived the challenge from Republican U.S. Representative Fred Grandy.

IA-Gov, IA-Sen: Branstad, Harkin favored in 2014

desmoinesdem — Tue, 13 Nov 2012 13:50:00 GMT

Public Policy Polling's last Iowa survey before the general election suggests that both Governor Terry Branstad and Senator Tom Harkin are favored looking ahead to possible re-election campaigns in 2014.
Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,122 likely Iowa voters on November 3 and 4, producing a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent. Click here (pdf) to view the polling memo, with questionnaire and crosstabs.

About 48 percent of respondents said they approve of Branstad's job performance, while only 36 percent disapproved. That's similar to what PPP found in August and a lot better than the governor's approval rating in several PPP polls during 2011, when Branstad was underwater or barely even on approval.

In addition, 49 percent of PPP's respondents in the latest survey said they would vote for Branstad against an unnamed Democratic opponent if a governor's election were held today. Just 40 percent said they would vote for the unnamed Democrat, while 11 percent were unsure. This poll probably understates Branstad's strength, because it reached a presidential year electorate. Registered Iowa Democrats will likely be a smaller share of the electorate in 2014.

Given Iowa's history of gubernatorial elections during my lifetime, you don't need a poll to tell you Branstad will be hard to beat if he seeks a sixth term in 2014. Before Governor Chet Culver lost in 2010, you have to go back to the 1960s to find an example of an Iowa governor losing a re-election bid. Had Republican power brokers not brought Branstad back into politics, I think that even against the backdrop of the worst recession in 60 years, Culver could have won a second term against likely GOP nominee Bob Vander Plaats.

Branstad may be disappointed not to have Republicans in control of the Iowa Senate, but I suspect that having Senate Democrats block the more extreme GOP policy initiatives has kept Branstad's approval rating relatively high. Like Todd Dorman says, Iowans seem to like our state government divided.

In contrast, several Republican governors who had "the trifecta" in their states after winning in 2010 go into the next election cycle looking more vulnerable than Branstad.

Senator Tom Harkin's approval numbers weren't as strong as Branstad's in the PPP poll: 41 percent approve, 40 percent disapprove, 18 percent unsure. Harkin hasn't been in the news as much this year, especially with Congress adjourned since August. Harkin's re-elect numbers were comparable to Branstad's: 48 percent of respondents said they would vote for Harkin if a Senate election were held today, while 40 percent would vote for an unnamed Republican opponent and 12 percent were unsure.

Although the 2014 Iowa electorate will probably lean more Republican than PPP's sample for this survey, I would consider Harkin strongly favored to win a sixth term. He won re-election by double digits in 2002, which wasn't a great midterm for Democrats across the country. Iowa Republicans weren't able to recruit a strong candidate against him in 2008, when he defeated Christopher Reed by 25 points.

Harkin will go into the next election with a big war chest and the top spot on one of the Senate's most important committees. I don't think a Republican heavyweight will be eager to take him on in 2014.

A few years ago, many Iowa Democrats expected Harkin to retire at the end of his current term, but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore. It surely helps that Democrats kept the majority in the upper chamber. Running the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions is a lot more fun than being the minority party's ranking member on that committee.

Please share any relevant comments in this thread, including speculation about possible challengers to Branstad or Harkin.

IA-04: Vilsack's case and King's closing arguments

desmoinesdem — Wed, 07 Nov 2012 02:22:12 GMT

The campaign in Iowa's fourth Congressional district set records for fundraising by a U.S. House incumbent and challenger in Iowa and attracted nearly $5 million in spending by outside groups. For weeks, television stations around the district have been saturated with ads for and against five-term Representative Steve King and Democratic challenger Christie Vilsack.

A final news roundup on IA-04 is after the jump, including Vilsack's key campaign themes and King's closing message to voters.
The Republican voter registration advantage in IA-04 has always been one of Vilsack's biggest obstacles. According to the latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State's office, the 39 counties in IA-04 contain 131,917 Democrats, 182,313 Republicans, and 174,857 no-party voters. Vilsack needs exceptional Democratic turnout and a huge lead among independents to make up for King's support among the hard-core conservatives of northwest Iowa.

The early voting numbers indicate that Democrats have turned out at a proportionally higher rate than Republicans in this district. As of November 5, county auditors in IA-04 had received 55,501 ballots from registered Democrats, 60,089 from Republicans, and 38,722 from no-party voters. Even though Republicans are more inclined to vote on election day, King should have been able to build up a bigger lead there.

Vilsack's campaign has released internal polls showing a close race in IA-04. Most recently, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner's survey taken October 24 and 25 showed "a statistical dead heat (48 percent King, 46 percent Vilsack), with Independent [candidate Martin James] Monroe receiving 2 percent of the vote."

Among early voters, a more Democratic group reflecting Democratic strength on the ground, Vilsack leads King 50 to 39 percent. (Ten percent refused to say who they supported.)
Steve King draws his highest negative personal appeal score we have seen this year (now 39 percent negative, up from 30 percent from last May). Among women, 42 percent react negatively, just 33 are favorably disposed toward the Republican. Similarly, his job performance ratings are very mixed at 44 percent positive, 43 percent negative. Fully 31 percent, nearly a third of this electorate, describe his work in office as "poor".

Handicappers' views of this race have changed over the past few months. During the summer, IA-04 was 57th on the National Journal's list of U.S. House districts that might change hands. It rose to 39th after the National Republican Congressional Committee started advertising there, then dropped back to 52nd on the final pre-election version of Scott Bland's rankings. The Cook Political Report named IA-04 a lean Republican seat in August but later moved it to the "toss-up/tilt Republican" category. Roll Call reported in mid-September,

King has not been able to put the race away more than a year after Vilsack announced her candidacy. GOP internal polling shows a single-digit race with King picking up less than 50 percent of the vote. This week, one plugged-in national Republican privately named King as one of the five GOP incumbents most likely to not return to Congress next year.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee appeared to be less convinced, announcing in early October that the DCCC had canceled its remaining IA-04 media buy. On the other hand, the House Majority PAC, a Democratic super-PAC, upped its spending against King during the final week of the campaign, suggesting it did not consider the race a lost cause.

As of late October, the Cook Political Report considered IA-04 a lean Republican district.

Vilsack's case to voters

In effect, Vilsack has tried to convey three things to voters: the kind of person she is, the kind of person King is, and the policies she wants to implement on behalf of constituents.

After watching or listening to most of the seven Vilsack-King debates, as well as all of her television commercials and many other campaign messages, I think she was far more successful in pressing the first two arguments than the third.

Vilsack's opening television commercial, discussed here, contrasted her desire to work together to solve problems with the way some politicians "scramble to the TV cameras to stir the pot." During every debate, she presented herself as a person who can contribute to finding a compromise on some of the big issues facing the country. For example, during the Iowa Public Television debate:

I think that there are times in a nation's history when you need people who are resolute and who dig their heels in, but I don't think this is that time. I think it was said best by a man who approached me at the Greene County Fair, who said I'm not a democrat, I'm a republican, I'm an American and I wish Congress would start acting like they're Americans too. And I want to go to Congress as an American and as a problem solver, not as a partisan fighter.

Her closing statement from the same debate hit on the same theme:

I think that I'm the kind of person who is a problem solver, not a partisan fighter. I want to expand the definition of being a congressperson to being a spokesperson for my state. I think I'm the kind of person - if you were going to hire somebody to be a spokesperson, you would hire somebody who could speak to all different sides of an issue who could bring disparate groups together and go out around the country and explain what we do here, that we do take care of our animals, that we are stewards of the land, and that we - and I could explain why biofuels and wind are important to the economy and the whole country. I think I can be a spokesperson in a way that Congressman King can't because it's so controversial.

One of the Vilsack campaign's most effective commercials was this radio spot featuring the legendary former Des Moines Register columnist Chuck Offenburger. It started running on October 10:

Chuck Offenburger: I'm Chuck Offenburger - the Iowa Boy and a long-time Republican. But, in this election, I'm endorsing Christie Vilsack for Congress.
Christie and I don't agree on everything. But I admire her solid Iowa values. She respects people with opposing views and is willing to listen.
More than that, Christie has always been a problem-solver, not a partisan fighter. She thinks that getting things done is more important than what political party you belong to.
From expanding literacy to providing more economic opportunity in small towns and rural areas -- and even to reducing the number of unplanned pregnancies -- Christie has been able to work with Iowans of all persuasions.
And don't we need a little more of that in Congress today?
So I hope you'll join this long-time, active Iowa Republican in putting partisanship aside and voting for Christie Vilsack.
Thanks for your time.
Christie Vilsack: I'm Christie Vilsack, candidate for U.S. Congress, and I approve this message. Paid for by Christie Vilsack for Iowa, Inc.

Even King's admirers have to admit that he will never be the guy who gets people together in a room to solve a problem. He will always be the guy screaming outside the room, trying to scuttle the compromise.

Three weeks ago, the Vilsack campaign launched this commercial, featuring excerpts from President Bill Clinton's speech on her behalf at a Sioux City rally.

Transcript:

President Bill Clinton: There are so many Republicans supporting Christie Vilsack for Congress because she is a practical problem solver.
She has got a good set of practical proposals, she's got a great head on her shoulders.
And I'm just telling you, you're not going to have many chances in your life to vote for somebody who knows as much, who's lived through as much, who's done as much and can do as much for you as Christie Vilsack.
Not right, not left, forward. That's Christie Vilsack!
Christie Vilsack: I'm Christie Vilsack and I approve this message.

I've continued to see that commercial even in the last couple of days on Des Moines television. I wish they'd run it more often, but they've been alternating with one of Vilsack's negative spots on King instead.

The flip side of "I'm a reasonable, practical problem solver" is "he's an extreme, ineffective partisan fighter." During debates, Vilsack repeatedly referred to King's sparse record of legislative accomplishments. (King responds that he focuses on passing amendments to other people's bills instead of shepherding his own bills through Congress.) She pressed him on failing to solve the national debt problem. For instance, during the debate hosted by WOI-TV in Ames, King warned that we can't keep borrowing from China. Vilsack countered that the debt is higher now than when King went to Congress, and that he'd supported tax cuts, Medicare Part D, and two wars without paying for them.

In every debate that I heard, Vilsack hammered King for not getting Republican House leaders to bring the new farm bill up for a vote before adjourning this summer. The candidates had a sharp exchange on this issue during their Orange City debate:

"I'm sitting in a position where I expect to be on the [farm bill] conference committee and we'll have a voice of Iowa there when we hammer the last bill out," King said.
Vilsack replied: "I don't think that you're going to be on a conference committee. You haven't shown leadership in other situations either and I don't think you're going to show leadership here."
Vilsack suggested there was a reason King was the only member of Iowa's congressional delegation who did not sign a petition calling for a vote in the House on the Farm Bill.
"I think there are $136,000 reasons why he didn't do that and those are the dollars that he is receiving from the Club for Growth," Vilsack said.

Vilsack spent a lot of her campaign fund on commercials trying to convince voters that King doesn't represent Iowa well. "Speak" was her third ad, which started running in mid-September:

Transcript:

Vilsack's voice I'm Christie Vilsack, and I approve this message.
Male voice-over: Here in Iowa, we work HARD to pay the bills. So why doesn't Steve King SEE it?
Congressman King says jobless benefits create "a nation of slackers."
He says "working age" should include seniors who are seventy-FOUR.
And he'd slap Iowans with a twenty-THREE percent sales tax - sending the cost of gas, groceries, and medicine SOARING.
If King can't see the middle class struggle, how can he speak for US?

Generic ad in content and style. I'm skeptical that compiling King's "greatest hits" will win over voters, although these ads may have helped drive up King's negatives.

Vilsack's campaign backed up the assertions in "Speak" with quotations from King. He objects to how his challenger portrays the "fair tax," because under that plan, a national sales tax (more accurately a value-added tax) would replace income taxes. Still, independent analysis confirms that the "fair tax" would increase the burden on most middle-income Americans while reducing taxes on the very wealthy.

Vilsack's fourth ad drew a contrast between Republican policies on Medicare and her promise to preserve that program in its current form. "Protect" went up during the last week of September.

Transcript:

Male voice-over: Who can Iowans trust on Medicare?
Steve King voted for a budget the Wall Street Journal says would essentially end Medicare as we know it. For future retirees, King's plan would replace guaranteed benefits with vouchers.
AARP opposes the voucher scheme, which analysts say could cost seniors over six thousand [dollars] a year.
Christie Vilsack will protect guaranteed benefits. An iron-clad commitment to keep the Medicare promise.
Vilsack's voice: I'm Christie Vilsack, and I approve this message.

King's campaign questioned the accuracy of this ad, but he did vote for Paul Ryan's budget in April 2011. It is accurate to say that the Republican plan would end guaranteed benefits for future retirees.

With so many commercials back and forth on Medicare, I doubt many minds were changed on the issue.

The final Vilsack television commercial ditched the narrator altogether. Other than the "I approve" message at the beginning, there are no spoken words in this ad, just words and images on the screen while somber music plays. "Not Iowa" went up on October 21 and continued running right up to election day.

Vilsack's voice: I'm Christie Vilsack, and I approve this message.
[viewer sees blurry black and white picture of Steve King, words on screen Who is Steve King?]
[He compared immigrants to livestock and dogs. The Hill 7/13/06 Des Moines Register 5/22/12 ]
[Compared torture of Iraqi prisoners to college "hazing." Associated Press 5/14/04]
[Says opposing Hurricane Katrina relief was "the best vote that I cast." The Hill, 9/22/09]
King's picture begins to come into focus. [Called efforts against sexual harassment "a terrible concept." Slate.com, 11/02/11]
[Said the Violence Against Women Act interferes "in the relationship of marriage." Draft Rules Committee Transcript 9/27/05]
King's picture is finally in sharp focus. [That's Steve King. Not Iowa.]

While I doubt the "highlight reel" is the best weapon against King, the technique was used in an effective way here. I didn't like this commercial as much as the Bill Clinton spot, but it did make King look bad.

King commented on this ad during the Iowa Public Television debate,

I've said of one of her previous commercials that by the time I eliminated the questions and the misstatements and the dishonesty, the only thing left was "I'm Christie Vilsack and I approved this message." This one actually has in it, though, the one statement that is true, and the rest are false. The one that is true is a statement that I made about the vote on Hurricane Katrina. I believe that was $51.8 billion. I said that there will be all kinds of wasted funds. There's no plan to spend it. I got beaten up on by many of the newspapers around, but I stood on that and I said it's a principled vote and it will be easier to defend every day. As a matter of fact, here is King was right, that's the Sioux City Journal's response to that after they saw what happened when I voted no on Katrina funding. So I'll stand on what's true. The balance of that is false. But this was a good vote. I've had several better ones since then, and that is the repeal voting against Obamacare - voting for the repeal of Obamacare, voting against cap and trade, voting against Dodd Frank. Those were all better votes from a big policy perspective. But that was a good principled vote that I put up and the rest of those allegations are false.

The third prong of Vilsack's case was advancing a non-controversial policy agenda with a strong local focus on educational and employment opportunities for Iowa's small towns and rural areas. From where I'm sitting, she was much less successful on this front. You can't run as a policy-focused candidate when you repeatedly refuse to take a clear stand on some issues. King exploited this weakness of Vilsack's well in his early commercials and continued to do so in the final weeks, as we'll see below.

Two of Vilsack's tv ads presented the "policy" side of her candidacy. During the Democratic National Convention, she launched the "Potluck" ad.

Christie Vilsack speaking to the camera: When I go to a potluck, I like to bring a seven-layer salad. Lettuce, onion, bacon, peas - there's something for just about everybody.
We need to create layers of economic opportunity to rebuild our middle class - expanding access to Head Start and community college; cutting wasteful spending to create jobs; targeting tax relief to small businesses instead of millionaires.
Please read my ideas for strengthening small town Iowa.
I'm Christie Vilsack and I approved this message.

Note the combination of conservative catch phrases (cutting wasteful spending, targeting "tax relief" to business) with progressive ideals (Head Start, community college, letting tax breaks for millionaires expire). However, this ad doesn't work for me. The "something for everyone" approach isn't very convincing when your opponent's main selling point is always standing up for what he believes.

Vilsack returned to her policy ideas during a commercial called "Plan," which started running on October 8.

Vilsack speaking to camera: I've spent my whole life as a teacher, trying to ensure that our children have the knowledge and skills to succeed. And as Iowa's first lady, I got to know many of you as we worked to improve literacy and college-readiness across our state.
Iowans want problem-solvers representing us, not just partisan fighters. And nothing is more important than creating economic opportunity, so our children can stay in Iowa, and raise their own families here.
I hope you'll log on to ChristieVilsackforIowa.com. I'm Christie Vilsack, and I approve this message.

I like that Vilsack read the script herself, rather than relying on a professional narrator. She did squeeze in the "problem solver, not partisan fighter" line too. But this ad doesn't leave the viewer with an impression of her plan for creating economic opportunity.

King's closing arguments

I feel that this year's political advertising was generally poor on both sides of the spectrum. In contrast, King's commercials were solid, with a unified look and feel. Bleeding Heartland covered King's early television and radio ads here. Three more hit television screens across the district during the past few weeks. "On the Brink" went on the air October 11.

[Viewer sees protest marches, words on screen "...8 billion shortfall in Illinois budget" (Associated Press 4/27/11)
"California's budget problems continue" (Sacramento Bee 9/21/12)
Our economy in a rut.]
King, speaking to camera: With Europe crumbling; Illinois and California on the brink. And debt crushing our economy. This isn't the time to spend and tax us more.
We need less spending and more jobs. [words on screen Less spending. More jobs.]
How hard can that be to understand?
Mr. President, come home with me to Iowa. We'll show you how to make a dollar work hard.
I'm Steve King and I approve this message.

King's wrong about the relationship between government spending and job creation, but unfortunately, this looks like an effective ad to me. Many people believe that cutting government spending will magically create jobs.

"Choice" was probably the least successful King ad, because it reverted to the scary voice-over technique.

Male voice-over: Christie Vilsack, Nancy Pelosi, Labor unions and radical animal rights groups are spending millions trying to defeat Steve King. Cause that's what liberals do.
Governor Branstad, Senator Grassley, all major Ag groups and the Chamber of Commerce are supporting Steve King. Because that's what common sense Iowans do.
So, Vilsack and Pelosi? Or, Steve King? Tough choice?
King's voice: I'm Steve King and I approve this message.

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey recorded a 60-second radio ad for King, which started running on October 23.

Hi, this is Bill Northey, Iowa's Secretary of Agriculture. I'm a farmer myself. We've heard a lot of things this election, but the truth is - Iowa's farmers could ask for no better advocate in Washington than Congressman Steve King.
Steve's smart and understands the modern AG world. He's a senior member of the AG Committee in Washington - and one of the most outspoken and effective Members.
Congressman King has the full backing of the Agriculture industry, winning the support of sixty AG organizations, including The Farm Bureau and Corn Growers. Sixty AG groups! That speaks volumes.
Steve's our hardworking, commonsense conservative Iowa voice in Washington.
I'm Bill Northey and I sure approve of Steve King.
STEVE KING:
I'm Steve King and I approve this message. Paid for by King for Congress.

King's campaign did not respond to my repeated requests for a list of the 60 agricultural organizations that supposedly endorsed the Congressman. I suspect many of them were county branches of just a few groups.

The final King television commercial is called "Tuesday."

King's voice: I'm Steve King and I approve this message.
King's voice continues: Well it's almost over. I've been to your town, all 382 of them. [footage of different people and scenes]
King speaking to camera: I want you to know that I'll never quit racing back to Iowa each week. I'll work harder than anyone. I'll watch your dollars like I watch my own. And, I've told you exactly where I stand. I hope I've earned your vote on Tuesday.

During all of the debates, King emphasized that unlike his opponent, he has always lived in the IA-04 counties. Unlike his opponent, he doesn't dodge questions about the issues. This is the best possible spin on King's mouthy tendencies.

I would rather have my views represented in Congress than have my representative race back to Iowa every week, but Iowans do respect hard work. It's smart for King to close with his work ethic, a theme from his earlier ads.

Outside advertising in IA-04

Many groups got involved in the IA-04 race. You can view the full list of reported independent expenditures here.

The main groups advertising against King were the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the super-PAC called House Majority PAC, and the Humane Society. CREDO Super-PAC spent a lot of money on field staff working against King, but did not pay for broadcast advertising.

Working against Vilsack were the National Republican Congressional Committee, Karl Rove's group Crossroads GPS (focusing on health care reform), and the National Federation for Independent Business, which falsely claimed Vilsack "supports a tax hike on small businesses" and therefore "doesn't have a clue on jobs."

The outside advertising in IA-04 was so boring and cookie-cutter that I wonder how it could be worth the money all these groups spent in the district.

Any comments about the King-Vilsack race are welcome in this thread.

P.S. - During their seventh debate, the candidates were asked what was the nicest thing each could say about the other.

"He obviously has a very strong feeling about his own children and his family as he talks about his grandchildren," said Vilsack, first to answer based on the rotation of questions. "That is certainly a value that we would share."
King took a different approach.
"I was hoping to have 60 or 90 seconds to think that over," King said. "It was easier to say nice things before this campaign started."
That considered, King said he had "zero animosity" toward either Christie Vilsack, or her husband, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, who was seated 20 feet away in the front row of an auditorium at North Iowa Area Community College in Mason City. King also said to Christie Vilsack, "As a first lady, you're a nice first lady."

Not too classy, Congressman.

Election day thread, with latest Iowa absentee numbers

desmoinesdem — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 15:39:29 GMT

Happy election day, Bleeding Heartland readers! All comments about your voting experience or any campaign you're watching are welcome in this thread. I'd like to hear more reports about radio and television commercials for Iowa House and Senate candidates. The parties have been spending a ton of money on those lately.

A lot of my friends went to see President Obama and Bruce Springsteen in the East Village of Des Moines last night. It looked like Paul Ryan drew a big crowd near the airport too. I'm standing by my prediction that Obama will win Iowa, but ARG did release a poll yesterday showing Mitt Romney ahead here by 49 percent to 48 percent.

The latest Iowa absentee ballot totals are after the jump, along with thoughts about how well Romney needs to do today to make up his early voting deficit.
Absentee ballots requested by Iowa voters as of November 5, 2012

Congressional district	Democrats	Republicans	no-party voters
IA-01	80,331	49,295	54,092
IA-02	92,158	55,899	58,163
IA-03	79,422	60,449	42,845
IA-04	60,830	63,864	43,163

statewide	312,741	229,507	198,263

Absentee ballots received by Iowa county auditors as of November 5, 2012

Congressional district	Democrats	Republicans	no-party voters
IA-01	72,458	46,546	47,554
IA-02	84,079	52,859	51,759
IA-03	69,928	55,945	36,815
IA-04	55,501	60,089	38,722

statewide	281,966	215,439	174,850

As of yesterday, Iowa county auditors had received more than 673,000 completed absentee ballots. That's not the final early voting number, because some mailed ballots will continue to arrive, and they will be counted as long as they were postmarked by November 5. Also, Iowans may hand-deliver completed absentee ballots to their county auditor's office today until polls close at 9 pm.

Democrats lead Republicans by more than 65,000 in returned ballots. I consider it likely that Obama leads among the no-party early vote too, so Romney probably has to make up a deficit of between 70,000 and 90,000 votes among election-day voters.

Since 1,528,715 Iowans voted in the 2008 general election, and 1,497,741 Iowans voted in the 2004 general election, I assume that at most 1.6 million Iowans will cast ballots in this year's election (my best guess would be total turnout closer to the 2008 level).

Former Bush/Cheney campaign staffer Adrian Gray has predicted that Republicans would be able to make up a 60,000 vote deficit on election day in Iowa. He sees Romney on the edge, needing to win today's vote by 7 points, as George W. Bush did in 2004. I don't see how he arrives at that number.

With nearly 700,000 votes already banked, somewhere between 800,000 and 900,000 Iowans will cast ballots today.

If 850,000 Iowans vote today, Romney would need around 55 percent of them to make up the early vote deficit, depending on how much the early no-party vote tilted to Obama.

IA-03: Least inspiring campaign ever?

desmoinesdem — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 14:15:00 GMT

I planned to write several posts this fall about the third Congressional district race between Representatives Tom Latham and Leonard Boswell. Instead, every time I sat down to write about the campaign, I found myself turning to other topics. Central Iowa radio and television stations have been so over-saturated with cookie-cutter attack ads against both candidates. If a political junkie like me finds it off-putting, I can't imagine how disengaged other people feel when they hear the beginning of yet another negative commercial.

Neither Latham nor Boswell has offered a compelling case for re-election, but after the jump I review the main messages from both campaigns and from various outside groups that have been advertising in Des Moines and Omaha.
Latham's enormous fundraising advantage prompted some people to write off Boswell's chances earlier this year. However, going into the last month of the campaign Boswell had enough money to compete in paid media, while Latham seemed to have more cash on hand than he knew what to do with. Internal polling on both sides is rumored to show a close race, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released partial results from one September poll to drive home that point. Roll Call rates IA-03 as a tossup. The National Journal and Rothenberg Political Report consider Latham slightly favored.

Whoever wins independents in IA-03 is likely to win the election. The latest voter registration numbers indicate that the 16 counties in IA-03 contain 157,904 Democrats, 166,759 Republicans, and 150,989 no-party voters.

The early voting numbers suggest that Boswell has small lead going into election day. As of November 3, county auditors in IA-03 had received 67,351 ballots from registered Democrats, 53,571 from Republicans, and 34,389 from no-party voters. I don't understand why Latham didn't spend more of his war chest on field organizers to turn out voters early across the district.

Latham's message to voters

Latham has bought a ton of radio and television advertising time. In the spring and summer, he ran some positive commercials. For instance, "Iowa Common Sense."

Transcript:

Male voice-over: How do you go from working in a family seed business in Iowa to fighting for Iowans at the highest levels?
Tom Latham grew up on an Iowa farm. He learned Iowa common sense and took it to Washington.
Tom's working to help Iowa small businesses create jobs, and lower taxes for middle-class families. He's fighting to stop the spending, voting against the wasteful stimulus and for a balanced budget. Tom Latham: one of us, fighting for us.
Latham's voice: I'm Tom Latham, and I approve this message.

In contrast, this fall I've seen mostly negative advertising from Latham's campaign. In early October, this spot used a bunch of unidentified "ordinary people" to explain why they're supporting the Republican.

Latham's voice: I'm Tom Latham, and I approve this message.
Footage of Boswell from the Iowa State Fair: Look at his record, look at my record, and you make your choice.
Older man: I've looked at Leonard's record, and I've looked at Tom's record, and I'm supporting Tom Latham.
Younger man: If you take a look at the voting record, Leonard Boswell has voted with Nancy Pelosi the majority of the time.
Younger woman, with children swinging on a play set in the background: If we continue the spending, we will not be able to pass that American dream on to our children.
Older woman: Based on his votes, I don't think Congressman Boswell is interested in cutting spending.
Second older man: He doesn't support Iowa, he supports Washington, DC.

Central Iowans have heard this big spending, "Nancy Pelosi" line against Boswell many times before. I suppose it's new to people in southwest Iowa, who weren't in IA-03 before.

Other Latham ads have focused on allegedly excessive bonuses paid to Boswell's staff.

Transcript:

Latham's voice: I'm Tom Latham, and I approve this message.
Female voice-over: In the last four years, 11,000 Iowans have lost their homes. Thousands more have lost jobs.
But as Iowans played by the rules and struggled to get ahead, Congressman Leonard Boswell rewarded his government staff with more than a half-million dollars in bonuses. Bonuses as big as fourteen thousand dollars, paid for by Iowa taxpayers who didn't have money to spare.
Iowans struggled, while Leonard Boswell spent our money on big bonuses, the Washington way.

This commercial is ridiculous. As Boswell pointed out during the candidates' debate on Iowa Public Television, he pays his staff lower base salaries than Latham does.

Boswell: He's leading by misrepresentation at this moment. We all have to manage our own account. We have about the same account and so reflect over that time he's talking about and we have actually turned back more than he has. I have a system where there's reward for good work, there is incentive at the end of the year if you've met the criteria of incentives you're going to get rewarded for it but overall he is paying an average of $500 a month for his people more which equates to $6000 a year. So this is misrepresentation and it's unfortunate to have to do that but that's not true.

I don't understand why a Republican would be against hiring people at lower pay, with a chance to earn bonuses for hard work. But Latham clearly thinks this is a winning issue, because his campaign put up a BoswellBonus.com website and launched a 60-second radio ad on the topic a couple of weeks ago.

Iowans are learning more about the Boswell bonuses. America was struggling through the worst economic recession since the Great Depression. Thousands of Iowans lost jobs and homes, while middle-class incomes declined. Seniors on fixed incomes were denied cost of living adjustments.
But in Congressman Leonard Boswell's office, the good times rolled. From 2008 to 2011, career politician Boswell awarded his own staff more than a half-million dollars in taxpayer-funded in bonuses, some for more than $14,000.
Boswell was so generous with taxpayer money, he gave $700 billion to Wall Street, voting for the 700 billion-dollar TARP bailout. Boswell voted for the wasteful stimulus, and to add trillions in new debt.
But maybe Boswell's most galling use of your money happened inside his own office, with the spending Boswell personally controlled. Under Boswell, good times rolled, while Iowans suffered.
Latham's voice: I'm Tom Latham, candidate for Congress, and I approved this message.

During the candidates' October 10 debate on KCCI-TV, Boswell came out for raising the gasoline tax in order to pay for road and bridge repairs. Latham seized on that comment for his closing tv ad, launched on October 30.

Transcript:

Footage of Boswell from the Iowa State Fair: Look at his record, look at my record, and you make your choice.
Female voice-over: Boswell's record. Half a million dollars in taxpayer-funded bonuses for staff. Trillions in new debt. Now Boswell supports raising taxes on every Iowan.
Clip from Boswell at debate: Well, I think we're gonna have to raise the gas tax.
Female voice-over: Tom Latham voted against the Wall Street bailout. He supports small businesses and cutting spending. The choice is clear: Tom Latham.
Latham's voice: I'm Tom Latham, I approve this message, and I'm asking for your vote.

In mid-October, Latham's campaign produced this ad in response to a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spot about Medicare.

Latham's voice: I'm Tom Latham, and I approve this message.
Female voice-over: Leonard Boswell's allies are not telling the truth about Tom Latham's record. Independent fact-checkers call the attacks, "The Lie of the Year."
The truth? Boswell voted to cut $716 billion from Medicare.
Unidentified senior Iowa woman: Congressman Boswell robbed Medicare to pay for Obamacare.
Unidentified senior Iowa man, wearing veteran's cap: Leonard Boswell's vote to take $700 billion from Medicare hurts Iowa seniors.
Second unidentified senior Iowa man: He has to answer for that.
First senior man/veteran: Shame on you, Leonard Boswell!

By far the best Latham ad is this positive spot, which went on the air about three weeks before the election. I'm still seeing it on Des Moines stations.

Transcript:

Susan Jaenke of Iowa Falls: My daughter, Jamie Jaenke, was killed in Iraq.
Female voice-over: Susan cared for Jamie's daughter Kayla. But outdated laws prevented Susan and Kayla from receiving the benefit they deserved.
Susan Jaenke: I was within a month of losing everything.
Female voice-over: Tom Latham fought to change the law, to help families like the Jaenkes.
Susan Jaenke: I was told by everybody that that would never happen. I had an admiral tell me that. I guess he was wrong. Tom got it done.
Latham's voice: I'm Tom Latham, and I approve this message. [footage of Latham talking with Susan and Kayla]

Great work there by the Congressman. I can't imagine the stress of losing your child in a war, and then having to fight the government for benefits to help care for her orphaned daughter.

Latham should have produced ten commercials like this, featuring constituents he's helped, instead of a bunch of "Boswell bonus" garbage.

Boswell's message to voters

As he did during the 2010 campaign, Boswell has relied on mostly negative television advertising. "Deal" went up around Labor Day.

Transcript:

Boswell's voice: I'm Leonard Boswell, and I approve this message.
Male voice-over: An insider deal only Congressman Tom Latham could pull off. Four years ago, Tom Latham opposed the TARP bank rescue plan.
But documents show that the Latham family bank actually received 2.4 million dollars from the bailout.
No wonder Latham's net worth increased nearly six times since coming to Congress.
It's true--Latham and his family bank cashed in your tax dollars.
What's worse: cashing in your tax dollars from the bailout, or Tom Latham's hypocrisy?

This ad is a cheap shot. There's no proof Latham influenced the board of directors' decision at his family's bank. I think it would be worse if his family bank had benefited after Latham voted for the bailout.

Anyway, in October 2008 Boswell voted for the scheme that allowed banks to cash in "your tax dollars." Why did he do that, if he thinks Latham's family bank did a terrible thing?

Boswell's campaign ran second version of this commercial too, focusing on the fact that Latham's family bank is one of just three in Iowa that haven't fully repaid TARP funds to the federal government. I don't have the exact script, because I can't find that video online. Again, there's no evidence Latham was involved in decisions about how much TARP money to take, or when to pay it back.

During the final ten days of the campaign, Boswell has been running one negative spot and one positive one. The attack ad is called "Shakedown."

Transcript:

Male voice-over: With Tom Latham, look at who wins, and who loses. The winners: big corporations who got tax breaks from Latham to ship Iowa jobs overseas.
The Latham family bank, who got millions of your taxpayer dollars.
And Tom Latham himself. Millions in special-interest donations, and profits from the family bank.
No wonder Latham's six times richer since he came to Congress.
And who loses? Iowa and you.
Boswell's voice: I'm Leonard Boswell, and I approve this message.

I think Boswell's positive ad, "Joshua," is ten times more effective.

Male voice-over: After two tours of duty as an air assault helicopter pilot, Leonard Boswell understands: no one gets left behind.
So when a young Iowa veteran tragically took his own life, Boswell grieved with the family and went to work.
Leonard fought for and passed the Joshua Omvig Suicide Prevention law, to save the lives of veterans suffering from PTSD. Because Leonard Boswell knows that even when you take off the uniform, you never hang it up.
Boswell speaks directly to camera: I'm Leonard Boswell, and I approve this message.

This is a fantastic ad in my opinion. Boswell is rightly proud of pushing for the Joshua Omvig law. Veteran suicides reflect our shameful failure as a country to address the health needs of Americans returning from war zones.

All along, Boswell should have been running more commercials on what he has done to help veterans and other constituents. By this late stage of the campaign, I'm not sure how many viewers are open to learning something new about him.

Outside attacks on Boswell and Latham

Federal Election Commission documents show more than $5.6 million in independent expenditures in IA-03 during this election cycle. Click here to view the details. Latham has benefited from outside spending far more than Boswell.

The national PAC for credit unions has run pro-Latham radio ads, while the National Association of Realtors Congressional Fund has paid for both direct mail and television commercials supporting Latham. But the bulk of outside spending in IA-03 has gone toward negative advertising.

The National Republican Congressional Committee stopped spending in IA-03 weeks ago. Perhaps they felt other groups had Boswell pretty well covered, or for some other reason they didn't expect further spending here to move the needle. Anyway, here's the ad they launched against Boswell in late September.

Male voice-over: In the twilight of a 25-year career, Leonard Boswell is ending in disgrace.
The Iowa press calls Boswell's attack ads "cheap," "personal," "misleading," and "not worthy of a candidate who has served his country."
The truth is, Leonard Boswell's own transactions raise questions.
Press reports say Boswell got paid rent from a telecom company, shortly after he cosponsored legislation that helped the telecom industry.
It's time to bring him home.
The National Republican Congressional Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising.

Karl Rove's group Crossroads GPS is running a version of a "Silly Spending" ad that's airing in many Congressional districts.

Transcript:

Male voice-over: Congressman Leonard Boswell strongly supported President Obama's failed trillion-dollar stimulus. Boswell's vote sent nearly 2 million dollars to California to collect ants...in Africa. 25 million for snow-making in Vermont. Almost 300,000 to Texas to study weather...on Venus. While here in Iowa, over 32,000 have lost their jobs.
Boswell should have been helping Iowa. It's time for Leonard Boswell to lose his job. Crossroads GPS is responsible for the content of this advertising.

Republican ads bashed Boswell for supporting the "failed stimulus" two years ago. Naturally, they don't acknowledge that Iowa received tons of stimulus money for Medicaid, education, roads, and other programs, which helped our state get through the recession without devastating cuts to services. But that's a topic for another day.

My guess is that anyone who would be motivated to vote against Boswell because of the stimulus was already supporting Latham.

The Congressional Leadership Fund super-PAC has run several ads against Boswell. "Out of Touch" focused on his gas tax comments.

Transcript:

Female voice-over: After 25 years as a professional politician, how out of touch is Leonard Boswell? This out of touch.
Clip of Boswell talking during the KCCI debate: Well, I think we're gonna have to raise the gas tax. I think we must do that.
Female voice-over: You heard right. With gas near 4 dollars a gallon for Iowa families and farmers, Boswell wants to raise the gas tax.
Clip of Boswell talking during the KCCI debate: Well, I think we're gonna have to raise the gas tax. I think we must do that. We've gotta do it.
Female voice-over: Leonard Boswell. He's out of touch, and it's time for him to go.
Congressional Leadership Fund is responsible for the content of this advertising.

Another Congressional Leadership Fund ad, "Too Much," hits a lot of the GOP talking points we've heard many times.

Transcript:

Female voice-over: Too much, too long. That's Leonard Boswell.
Boswell voted for the stimulus, both bailouts and a giant national energy tax.
Boswell voted for higher income taxes four times. Higher death taxes three times. And 300,000 dollars in taxpayer-funded bonuses for his own personal staff.
After 15 years in Washington, Leonard Boswell can't stop spending. Too much, too long. It's time for him to go.
Congressional Leadership Fund is responsible for the content of this advertising.

I realize I'm not the target audience, but to me this ad is boring and repetitive. People against the "death tax" and alleged "energy tax" weren't ever considering voting for Boswell.

Only three organizations have spent a significant amount of money on advertising against Latham. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has had ordinary people rather than professional voice-overs deliver the messages in its commercials this fall. Lynne Carter of Winterset, who worked in human resources for 12 years, narrated "Devastating," which went on the air in late September.

Transcript:

When our jobs were shipped overseas, some people were literally left out in the cold. No retirement, no health benefits to go forward. And I was even forced to train our replacements from India -- it was devastating.
I'll never understand why Congressman Latham voted to keep giving government contracts to companies that outsource our jobs. Or why he takes contributions from them. Congressman Latham has no idea what we're going through.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising.

Randy Parcell of Winterset starred in the DCCC ad "Burns," which went on the air three weeks ago.

I worked there for over twenty years. I made American made parts -- very proud of that. Paid into Medicare out of every paycheck.
But when I learned that Congressman Latham wanted to gut Medicare -- basically do away with it ... Burns me.
Without Medicare, I'll have to work till the day I die. While Latham voted himself taxpayer-funded healthcare, for life. The guy just looks out for himself.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising.

Voters have seen so many ads about Medicare this year. You either believe that Republicans would essentially end Medicare, or you don't. I can't imagine that many votes are going to change because of this ad.

Incidentally, it was entertaining to watch Latham's campaign make fools of themselves claiming the the DCCC had used "actors pretending to be Iowans." The charge was based on a misleading report on KCCI-TV. KCCI's reporter should have done her homework before suggesting that Randy Parcell "didn't exist" in Winterset. Only hours after Latham's people and the Iowa Republican blog crowed that the star of the DCCC ad "didn't exist," a Des Moines Register report confirmed that Parcell does live in Winterset.

The House Majority PAC ran some commercials against Latham last winter, prompting a rapid response from Latham. The Democratic super-PAC recently returned to IA-03 with this ad. It has launched similar commercials against several House Republicans.

Transcript:

Young man: Next summer I'm going on a camping trip with my friends. On the way home I'll be in a car accident, and I'll be paralyzed for the rest of my life.
Woman: In 20 years I'll have Alzheimer's. I won't recognize my husband or my kids.
Little girl: Next week my mommy and daddy are gonna find out I have diabetes.
Woman: This is Representative Tom Latham.
Girl: He's running for Congress.
Young man: He voted against embryonic stem-cell research.
Woman: Is he a doctor?
Young man: Is he a scientist?
Woman: Why did Mr. Latham bet my life that he knows best?
Young man: Help me.
Girl: Help me.
Woman: Who knows? Maybe I'm your mother.
Young man: Maybe I'm your grandson.
Girl: Maybe I'm your little girl.
Woman: How do you know I'm not you?
Young man: Embryonic stem cell research could save lives. Maybe yours, or your family's, someone you love. Only Congressman Latham said no.
Girl: How come he gets to decide who lives and who dies. Who's he?
Male voice-over: House Majority PAC is responsible for the content of this advertising.

As someone who strongly disagrees with Latham's stand on stem-cell research, I have to say, that's a pretty manipulative commercial.

Any comments about the Boswell-Latham race are welcome in this thread.

No consensus in polls on Iowa retention vote

desmoinesdem — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 01:20:00 GMT

The Des Moines Register's new poll by Selzer and Co is the latest survey to give no clear sign of whether voters will retain Iowa Supreme Court Justice David Wiggins on Tuesday.
Jeff Eckhoff reported the retention findings in the Sunday Des Moines Register:

Thirty-eight percent of likely voters say they will vote to retain Wiggins in Tuesday's election. Thirty-four percent say they will vote to remove Wiggins; 22 percent say they are unsure of how they will vote; and 6 percent don't plan to vote on that ballot question.
The percentage of undecided voters was more than two times larger than it was in a similar poll conducted in September, when Wiggins appeared to be on firmer footing. Then, 49 percent of likely voters surveyed said they planned to vote for Wiggins' retention; 41 percent said they planned to vote against retaining the justice; 9 percent weren't sure; and 1 percent said they didn't plan to vote. [...]
(One difference between the September poll and the recent poll: The most recent version, which sampled 800 likely voters, identified Wiggins only by his name and job title; the September questioning reminded voters about his involvement in the same-sex marriage decision.) [...]
Poll numbers show the campaigns on both sides of Wiggins' retention have roughly equal support among likely presidential voters. Results show that 57 percent of voters who support Barack Obama for president intend to vote in favor of retaining Wiggins, while 57 percent of likely Mitt Romney voters say they'll vote to oust Wiggins.
However, 24 percent of Obama voters are undecided on the retention issue compared to 19 percent undecided among Romney voters. Nineteen percent of Romney voters want Wiggins retained, 13 percent of Obama voters want the justice booted and 5 percent on each side of the presidential race say they intend to skip the retention question.
Retention is modestly favored over removal by younger and older Iowa voters. Poll results show a plurality of 44 percent of voters age 55 and over intend to vote to keep Wiggins - up from the 34 percent of that age group who said they'd vote for retention for all three justices in the last poll of the 2010 campaign. Thirty-two percent of voters younger than 35 intend to vote for retention, according to the poll, which is higher than the 28 percent who want to unseat the justice. Among this group, 30 percent are not sure.

A recent Public Policy Polling survey indicated that 37 percent of Iowa likely voters were inclined to vote yes on Wiggins, 43 percent planned to vote no, and 20 percent were unsure.

Last week, the University of Iowa released results from its Hawkeye poll, which were the most favorable I've seen toward Wiggins. Cautionary note: the poll had a relatively small sample of 320 respondents statewide and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percent. Key findings:

With the election just one week away, 52.9 percent of Iowans who plan to vote on the retention question say they will vote in favor of retaining Wiggins while 30.4 percent plan to vote against retention, and 16.7 percent indicate that they are not yet sure how they will vote. Of Iowans surveyed, 76.8 percent and 83.2 percent of self-reported likely voters in the upcoming election say that they plan to vote on Wiggins' retention.
"It's a little surprising that only 76 percent of the respondents said they planned to vote in the judicial retention," says Tim Hagle, associate professor of political science in the UI College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, and an expert on judicial politics. "It may be that many don't bother to vote in retentions when they aren't familiar with the judge or justice involved."
A similar Hawkeye Poll survey 18 months ago found that nearly one in two Iowans was not sure how they would vote on Wiggins' retention.

I'm not at all surprised that a quarter of respondents don't plan to vote on retention. In the 2008 general election, 1,543,662 Iowans cast ballots for president, but just 950,050 people voted yes or no on retaining Iowa Supreme Court Justice Mark Cady (pdf). A 76 percent participation rate in this year's vote on Wiggins would be significantly higher than that level. The advertising campaigns and publicity surrounding the retention vote have clearly raised Iowans' awareness of their ability to retain or oust judges, but not everyone has a strong opinion on the matter.

Final Des Moines Register poll and Obama, Romney in Dubuque

desmoinesdem — Sun, 04 Nov 2012 00:25:00 GMT

President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney both headlined rallies in Dubuque today as two new polls showed the president ahead in Iowa.
The Des Moines Register's final poll of the year by Selzer & Co shows Obama ahead by 47 percent to 42 percent among likely Iowa voters. Only a few details about the poll are available at the Register's site now.

Obama barely edges Romney on the question of which candidate would do the best job of fixing the economy, the primary argument of Romney's campaign, the poll shows. [...]
Not only does he lead in the horse race, he inspires more confidence than Romney in handling relations with other countries, and he bests Romney considerably in four of five character traits tested.
The poll shows that 42 percent of likely voters have already cast ballots, including more than half of all seniors who plan to participate in this election. That's a striking difference from four years ago, when the Iowa Poll showed only 28 percent had mailed in an absentee ballot or voted at a local elections office or satellite station at this point. [...]
Obama is up 22 points among early voters. Among those planning to vote on Tuesday, Romney wins by 8 points. The poll shows early voting has been heaviest in the 2nd and 3rd congressional districts, which include Des Moines, Iowa City, Davenport and Council Bluffs, and lighter in steadfastly Republican northwest Iowa.

That last point is a bit odd, since absentee ballot totals show just as much early voting in Iowa's first district.

I'll update this post on Sunday with more details from the Register's poll. One more excerpt from the article posted Saturday evening:

President Barack Obama does best with union households (31 points better than Mitt Romney), unmarried voters (up 28 points), younger voters (up 17), those with no more than a high school education (up 16), seniors (up 12), in the 1st Congressional District in eastern and southeastern Iowa (up 12) and with women (up 11 points).
Obama, a Democrat, also does well with Iowans who did not participate in the 2010 election, winning 53 percent to 31 percent among this group.
Romney, a Republican, does best with evangelicals (26 points better than Obama), voters in Iowa's 4th Congressional District in northwest Iowa (up 19 points), married moms (up 18), affluent voters (up 17), married voters (up 10), middle-age voters (up 9), people with minor children (up 5), and with men (up 3).

The margin of error for a subset of a poll sample is always larger than the margin of error for the poll as a whole, so I am cautious about the finding that Obama's ahead by 12 points in the first Congressional district. But if he is, that would be excellent news for Democrats' prospects in the Iowa Senate. Many competitive races are in IA-01: Senate district 28, Senate district 30, Senate district 32, Senate district 36, Senate district 48, and half of Senate district 26.

Meanwhile, Project New America and USA Action released a new Iowa poll conducted by Grove Insight on November 1 and 2, which found Obama leading Romney 47 percent to 44 percent.

Most of the five Iowa polls released on Wednesday and Thursday also showed Obama a bit in front.

Romney strategist David Kochel said in a memo this week,

And although polling shows a tight race in Iowa, it's important to note that, in 2008, Obama held a 14-point lead in the final Des Moines Register Iowa Poll published the Sunday before the election. He won by fewer than 10 points. He will again under-perform his Iowa polling, where he has yet to come close to the 50 percent mark in any survey of polling averages.

Iowa Republicans had better hope Kochel is correct. Both presidential campaigns are touting their voter outreach and spinning the early voting numbers.

Both presidential candidates also stopped in Dubuque today to rally supporters in Iowa and western Wisconsin. Senator Chuck Grassley and Romney traded jokes at the Republican event. Radio Iowa's O.Kay Henderson posted highlights and the full audio from Romney's remarks.

Near the end of his speech, Romney blasted President Obama for merely "offering excuses" rather than offering a plan to resuscitate the economy.
"He wants to settle. Look, Americans don't settle. We aspire. We reach. We dream. We achieve," Romney said, to cheers from the crowd, "and so on November 6 we're going come together all across the country for a better future and on November 7 we're going to go to work."

The president's event drew a larger crowd late this afternoon. Again, Radio Iowa's Henderson was on the scene and posted the audio. Obama sounds quite hoarse, and he still had another event to go tonight in Virginia (a rally with President Bill Clinton, which had been postponed because of Hurricane Sandy).

Vice President Joe Biden was in Muscatine, Davenport, and Fort Dodge on Thursday.

Biden reprised the "47 percent" attack line here [in Muscatine], saying Romney's comment to a private fundraiser earlier this year represented the true nature of the Republican ticket. And he charged that the Republican was trying to deceive Americans with new television ads about China and the auto bailout, part of a pattern of deception.
Biden said the election is about character.
"It's clear to me who has it and who doesn't. Barack Obama has the character of his convictions," he said, adding the president says what he means and means what he says. "No one can say that about Gov. Romney."

Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan was in Cedar Falls on Friday.

Ryan hit President Barack Obama on the jobs report released Friday that put the national unemployment rate at 7.9 percent. The unemployment rate was 7.6 percent in January 2009, when Obama took office.
"We just got a jobs report today, the last jobs report before the election. The unemployment rate is higher than when he took office. Twenty-three million Americans are looking for work," Ryan said. "This is not what a real recovery looks like."
Ryan said his running mate has shown leadership that will help bring people together in Washington, whereas Obama has been a divider. He pointed to Romney's time as governor of Massachusetts, where the legislature was 85 percent Democrats.
He said Romney worked to find common ground and he will do the same in Washington.
"We have a jobs crisis. Wouldn't it be nice to have an actual job creator in the White House?" Ryan asked.

Ryan will be back in Des Moines on Monday. The president and First Lady Michelle Obama will also close out the campaign in Des Moines Monday evening.

Any comments about the presidential race are welcome in this thread. Also, please enter Bleeding Heartland's election prediction contest if you dare...

UPDATE: Roughly 4,500 people came to Romney's rally in downtown Des Moines on Sunday morning. Radio Iowa has the audio.

Pollster Ann Selzer wrote a commentary on why the "gender gap" is really more of a "marriage gap."

• Married women, whether or not they have children under age 18, give Romney an eight-point advantage.
• Whether married or not, women with children under age 18 prefer Obama by one point.
• Whether married or not, women without children prefer Obama by 16 points.
• Unmarried women, whether or not they have children under age 18, prefer Obama by 37 points - 62 percent to 25 percent.[...]
Rather than talking about the gender gap, we might want to start talking about the marriage gap. Almost two-thirds of the Iowa electorate (63 percent) is currently married. They give Romney a 10-point lead. Unmarried Iowa voters favor Barack Obama by almost 2-to-1.