[Bleeding Heartland Logo]

About
Bleeding Heartland is a community blog about Iowa politics: campaigns and elections, state government, social and environmental issues. Bleeding Heartland also weighs in on presidential policies and campaigns, federal legislation and what the Iowans in Congress are up to. Join our community, post your thoughts as comments or diaries, help keep our leaders honest and hold them accountable.
Author
- desmoinesdem
Highlights
- Iowa politics in 2008
- Iowa politics in 2009 (1)
- Iowa politics in 2009 (2)
- National politics in 2009 (1)
- National politics in 2009 (2)
- Iowa 2012 election coverage
- Who's who in the Iowa House for 2013
- Who's who in the Iowa Senate for 2013
- Iowa wildflowers
2014 Election Coverage
- IA-Sen
- IA-Gov
- IA-01
- IA-02
- IA-03
- IA-04
- Secretary of Agriculture
- Secretary of State
- State Auditor
- Iowa Senate overview
- Iowa House overview
- Senate district 5
- Senate district 7
- Senate district 9
- Senate district 13
- Senate district 15
- Senate district 17
- Senate district 27
- Senate district 39
- Senate district 41
- Senate district 47
- Senate district 49
- House district 25
- House district 28
- House district 33 (2013)
- House district 40
- House district 51
- House district 60
- House district 65
- House district 68
- House district 73
- House district 91
- House district 92
- House district 95
- House district 99
Search




Advanced Search


Paid Advertising


Bleeding Heartland
It's what plants crave.

Iowa caucus prediction contest results thread

by: desmoinesdem

Tue Jan 31, 2012 at 17:11:50 PM CST


Apologies for the lateness of this post: it's past time to reveal the Bleeding Heartland Iowa caucus prediction contest winners.  
desmoinesdem :: Iowa caucus prediction contest results thread
1. How many Iowans will participate in the Republican caucuses?

According to the Iowa GOP, attendance was 121,503 this year, a little higher than the 2008 participation of 119,188 Iowans.

Winner for this question: Bleeding Heartland user albert, who guessed 120,000. Not far behind was Jahiegel, who guessed a very specific 118,674. Third place goes to jdeeth, who guessed 124,500.

2. How many Iowans will participate in the Democratic caucuses?

The Iowa Democratic Party released a statement on January 3 claiming "more than 25,000" people attended Democratic precinct caucuses. A few county Democratic parties released attendance levels, but the IDP refused to provide county-level or even Congressional district-level attendance numbers to me, let alone caucus site attendance.

Although that estimate can't be verified, I'm calling this question for Bleeding Heartland user keith nichols, who submitted the lowest guess of 34,000. It was a tie for second between jdeeth and RF, who both guessed 37,000. Honorable mention to yorktownbc, who guessed 38,452 voters.

3. What percentage of the vote will the winning Republican receive? Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney tied for 25 percent.

As a group, we did well on this question--no one was far off. Bleeding Heartland users tietack, bowmama and I tied with predictions of 25 percent, but several others guessed 26 percent, 24 percent or 23 percent.

4. In what order will the Republican presidential candidates finish (most votes to least votes)?

Tietack, bowmama and I guessed the six main candidates in the right order. Honorable mention goes to prodigalson and RF, who reversed Romney and Santorum but got everyone else in the right order. Given the tiny margin between Romney and Santorum, they were almost correct.

5. What percentage of the 1,200 state delegate equivalents on the Democratic side will go to "uncommitted" rather than to President Barack Obama?

Answer: 1.5 percent. The winner is albert, who guessed 1 percent. I guessed zero percent, Jahiegel and jdeeth both guessed 3 percent.

Tiebreaker: How many of Iowa's 99 counties will the overall winner of the GOP caucuses carry? Santorum won a plurality in 63 counties. Bleeding Heartland user tietack guessed 60 counties, RF guessed 54, bowmama 74.

If Romney had gotten a few dozen more votes, he would have carried Iowa while winning only 17 counties. In that case ModerateIADem's guess of 12 counties would have been the closest, followed by albert (25) and keith nichols (27).

Congratulations to Bleeding Heartland user tietack, who submitted the best guesses on three of the above questions, including the tiebreaker. Albert, bowmama and I tied for second place, with the closest answers on two questions.

Stay tuned for the 2012 Iowa primary election prediction contest this June. Almost all the action will be on the Republican side, with primary contests in Iowa's first and second Congressional districts and a bunch of competitive Iowa House races. I'm most curious to see who will win the Chuck Grassley/Bruce Rastetter proxy war between Pat Grassley and Annette Sweeney in the new Iowa House district 50.

Tags: , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
Tweet This!

LOL (4.00 / 1)
I guess you have to believe that one of the two Romney/Santorum "won."

On a thirty vote spread out of 122,000, you must recount the ballots. Do not tell me the count was according to some perfect procedure in every precinct ...

Then you must produce a complete set of forms ...

They are really going at it at TIR. Makes for interesting reading as it appears that most of the users were happy with Strawn's management of their party.

I feel a bit sorry for Strawn. He's the bagman for a lousy certification process. If they can't even get the forms straight, the underlying count is rubbish for the purpose of deeming one of these two a winner. I can see why the Santorum supporters are smarting over Romney's PR win, but telling the national press to come back in two weeks was not an option, realistically. Proof: nobody cared that Santorum "won" the "certified" process. Didn't do a thing for him. After 3-Jan, nobody's interested in Iowa.


if I were a Republican (0.00 / 0)
I wouldn't chuck Strawn out over this issue. On the whole he has done well.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

[ Parent ]
Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


Iowa Liberal Blogs
- Ames Progressive
- Blog For Iowa
- Essential Estrogen
- Iowa .Gif-t Shop
- Iowa Independent (archive)
- Iowa Policy Points
- Iowans for a Future That Doesn't Suck
- John Deeth
Iowa Conservative Blogs
- Hawkeye GOP
- The Bean Walker
- Caffeinated Thoughts
- The Conservative Reader: Iowa
- The Iowa Republican
Journalists' blogs and research
- 24-Hour Dorman
- Cedar Rapids Gazette government page
- Iowa Fiscal Partnership
- Iowa Policy Project
- Iowa Politics Insider
- Iowa Watchdog.org
- On Brief: Iowa's Appellate Blog
- On the Campaign Trail with Ed Tibbetts
- Newton Independent (Peter Hussmann)
- Politically Speaking
- Price of Politics, etc.
- O.Kay Henderson at Radio Iowa
Iowa Democrats
- Tom Harkin (U.S. Senator)
- Bruce Braley (IA-01)
- Dave Loebsack (IA-02)
- Iowa Democratic Party
- Iowa House Democrats
- Iowa Senate Democrats
Statistics


 
Powered by: SoapBlox