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Bleeding Heartland
It's what plants crave.
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ia-01 
Fri May 17, 2013 at 07:10:00 AM CDT
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It's time for a new thread on the open first Congressional district seat. So far former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate. Former State Senator Swati Dandekar formed an exploratory committee last week. State Senator Jeff Danielson of the Cedar Falls/Waterloo area has said he's keeping his options open. I expect a decision relatively soon after the legislative session wraps up.
Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon "is nearly ready to announce" her candidacy, Rick Smith reported. She was first elected to the council in 2007, switched parties in 2009, and was re-elected in 2011. Cedar Rapids plaintiff's attorney Dave O'Brien may also run, Jennifer Jacobs reported. O'Brien's background is similar to Bruce Braley's before his first campaign in 2006.
State Representative Tyler Olson, who also chairs the Iowa Democratic Party, hasn't ruled out running for Congress, but some Polk County Democrats believe that if he runs for higher office next year, it will be against Governor Terry Branstad.
On the Republican side, Cedar Rapids business owner Steve Rathje and Dubuque business owner Rod Blum are already seeking the nomination in IA-01. Once the legislature adjourns for the year, my hunch is that a Republican lawmaker will join the race. State Representative Walt Rogers of the Cedar Falls/Waterloo area confirmed earlier this year that he's thinking about it.
The Iowa Republican's Kevin Hall reported last month that former Secretary of State and Cedar Rapids Mayor Paul Pate is "90 percent" likely to run for office in 2014. I think Pate would be a strong general election candidate but might have trouble winning an IA-01 GOP primary. It's also possible that he may run for Secretary of State again if Matt Schultz goes for the open U.S. Senate seat.
Current Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett is running for re-election and seems to have ruled out the IA-01 race, judging from his recent comments to Todd Dorman.
After the jump I've posted the latest voter registration numbers for the 20 counties in IA-01. Linn County is the largest by population, but it doesn't dominate the district. About 30 percent of the registered Democrats, 28 percent of the Republicans, and 27 percent of the no-party voters in IA-01 live in Linn County.
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Wed May 15, 2013 at 17:43:00 PM CDT
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Apparently there was some contentious Facebook discussion about whether the Iowa Democratic Party would or should support Swati Dandekar if she wins next year's primary to represent Iowa's first Congressional district.
What a waste of energy.
I am not convinced Dandekar will run for Congress, and if she runs, I doubt she will win the IA-01 primary. Several core Democratic constituencies have a problem with her, and I don't see any outpouring of support. At this writing, six days after Dandekar confirmed that she is considering the race, the Facebook page for her exploratory committee has only five "likes." I don't see her path to beating Pat Murphy or some other Democrat who may join the race later. Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon is leaning towards running, Rick Smith reported for the Cedar Rapids Gazette.
Instead of fretting over an unlikely scenario in IA-01, progressives with a grudge against conservadems should recruit a strong primary challenger to Joe Seng in Iowa Senate district 45. His voting record is worse than Dandekar's, and he's gotten some horrible legislation passed. Senate district 45, based in Davenport, is safe for Democrats in the general election.
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Thu May 09, 2013 at 21:21:00 PM CDT
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Former State Senator Swati Dandekar confirmed today that she is considering a campaign in Iowa's open first Congressional district. State Senator Wally Horn of Cedar Rapids and Tina Patterson of Marion will co-chair her exploratory committee. Dandekar expects to decide this summer whether to run for Congress. In the meantime, she will continue serving on the Iowa Utilities Board but will "not participate in decisions of any contested matters before the board."
Bleeding Heartland discussed Dandekar's potential strengths and weaknesses as a candidate here. I remain skeptical that she would win a Democratic primary, because of her legislative voting record and her decision to put the Iowa Senate majority in jeopardy in 2011, when she accepted Governor Terry Branstad's appointment to the Iowa Utilities Board. Dandekar emphasized in a statement today, " I know it is important to the people living in Northeast Iowa to continue the strong representation established by Congressman Bruce Braley. We must keep this seat in Democratic hands."
So far State Representative Pat Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate in IA-01. Any comments about this race are welcome in this thread.
UPDATE: Added reaction from Murphy, details about the online presence of Dandekar's exploratory committee, and the potential candidate's official bio after the jump.
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Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 08:40:00 AM CDT
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Republican Steve Rathje announced this week that he has hired staff for his campaign in Iowa's first Congressional district. The press release enclosed below contains background on campaign manager Doug Wagner and field director Taylor Nelson. Rathje also rolled out a steering committee of "30 people from all walks of life" who "either live in the 1st District, have employees who live here, or do business and serve people here." Those names are after the jump as well.
Hiring staff more than a year before the 2014 Republican primary is risky for Rathje. His campaign raised about $51,500 during the first quarter, but more than half of that total came from six donors who each contributed the maximum $5,200 ($2,600 for the primary election and $2,600 for the general election). Rathje's campaign reported $31,082.87 cash on hand as of March 31, but $15,600 of that amount is restricted for use during the 2014 general election campaign. He can't spend that money trying to defeat Rod Blum and/or other Republicans who may declare in IA-01 later.
Rathje will either need to broaden his donor base or loan his campaign lots of money in order to keep paying staff for the next 13 months. Since Blum had a strong showing in the 2012 GOP primary to represent IA-01, Rathje should save some resources for direct mail, radio or television advertising next spring too.
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Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 09:45:00 AM CDT
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Last week, Representative Bruce Braley (D, IA-01) voted for a bill that would force the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline. He did not send out any press release explaining that vote.
A Bleeding Heartland reader contacted Braley about his support for Keystone XL and shared the congressman's reply. I've posted it after the jump, along with information challenging some of Braley's assertions.
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Wed Apr 24, 2013 at 07:55:00 AM CDT
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Former State Representative and State Senator Swati Dandekar is reportedly considering a bid for the open first Congressional district seat.
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Tue Apr 16, 2013 at 07:15:00 AM CDT
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April 15 was the deadline for Congressional candidates to file reports on their fundraising and expenditures for the first quarter of 2013. Details on all of the Iowa incumbents and some other declared candidates are after the jump. At this writing, not every report has been posted on the Federal Elections Commission website. I will update this post as more information becomes available.
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Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 13:15:00 PM CDT
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State Representative Pat Murphy's Congressional campaign released a list today of more than 150 Democrats who support the former Iowa House speaker's bid to replace Bruce Braley in the U.S. House. The full list is after the jump, along with a statement from the campaign. Murphy has public support from one current Iowa Senate Democrat (Brian Schoenjahn), three current Iowa House Democrats (Roger Thomas, Mark Smith, and Bruce Bearinger), six former state representatives (Gene Ficken, John Beard, Tom Schueller, Dick Taylor, Kay Halloran, and Deo Koenigs) and two former state senators (Bob Carr and Mike Connolly). Other prominent endorsers include former U.S. Representative Dave Nagle, several union leaders, and eleven county supervisors.
Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate in Iowa's first district so far. His campaign raised about $68,000 between mid-February and the end of March, including more than $60,000 in contributions from individuals other than the candidate. A forthcoming Bleeding Heartland post will cover Iowa Congressional fundraising during the first quarter in more detail.
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Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 15:35:00 PM CDT
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Last week Governor Terry Branstad finally introduced legislation to enact his Healthy Iowa Plan instead of the Medicaid expansion foreseen under the 2010 federal health insurance reform law. Strangely, neither the governor's office nor the Iowa House Republican caucus held a news conference or even posted a press release about House Study Bill 232. The bill arrived at the statehouse on Thursday, April 4, after many legislators had left for the weekend.
So far House and Senate Republicans appear united behind Branstad's approach, while the governor's office strives to counter the obvious case against his plan (costs more, covers less). I've posted arguments for both sides and other news links after the jump.
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Tue Apr 09, 2013 at 09:00:00 AM CDT
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Democratic State Senator Jeff Danielson has not ruled out running for Congress in the open first district next year. I contacted Danielson after State Senator Liz Mathis confirmed on Saturday that she will not seek to replace Bruce Braley. Danielson responded on April 7, "I'm not actively seeking any other office at this time. I'm focused on the work of the Cedar Valley in the [legislative] session." When I asked whether he might consider a Congressional bid after the session ends, Danielson responded yesterday, "I am keeping all options open for 2014."
Danielson represents Iowa Senate district 30, covering most of Cedar Falls and part of Waterloo in Black Hawk County. He was just re-elected to a third four-year term in 2012, so he would not have to give up his current position to run for Congress next year. If he won the Democratic primary and the general election in IA-01, there would be a special election in Senate district 30 in early 2015. Republicans have a slight voter registration advantage in that district, but no-party voters have a plurality.
Danielson's district includes the University of Northern Iowa campus, so he has been a vocal advocate for higher education funding in the Iowa Senate. He has also been a leading voice for better disclosure of campaign contributions. He supports a federal constitutional amendment to overturn the U.S. Supreme Court's Citizens United decision and limit corporate campaign gifts. In Danielson's latest re-election campaign, he focused on bipartisan work to support main street businesses and fully fund services Iowans depend on. He also emphasized his commitment to "protecting health care choices for women."
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Sat Apr 06, 2013 at 14:40:00 PM CDT
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Confirming rumors that have circulated for the last two months, State Senator Liz Mathis told the Associated Press this morning that the timing isn't right for her to run for Congress in 2014.
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Wed Apr 03, 2013 at 11:45:00 AM CDT
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Several Democrats have already announced plans to run for Iowa House district 99 in Dubuque next year. State Representative Pat Murphy has represented part of that city for more than 20 years. He is leaving the state legislature to run for Congress in Iowa's first district.
After the jump I've posted background on Kevin Lynch, Steve Drahozal, Abby Finkenauer and Greg Simpson, along with a map of House district 99 and the latest voter registration totals. More candidates may emerge in this strongly Democratic House seat before the filing deadline in March 2014. One or more of the current candidates may opt out of the race before the filing deadline.
APRIL 5 UPDATE: Erin Murphy of the Dubuque Telegraph-Herald reports that Lynch has decided not to pursue this campaign. According to a Bleeding Heartland reader in Dubuque, both Drahozal and Finkenauer (but not Lynch) addressed county Democrats at the off-year caucus in March.
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Tue Apr 02, 2013 at 07:15:00 AM CDT
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In an ideal world, evidence that more than half of Midwest rivers and streams can't support aquatic life would inspire policy-makers to clean up our waterways. Rivers that are suitable for swimming, fishing, and other recreation can be a huge economic engine for Iowa communities.
We live in Iowa, where most of our lawmakers take the Patty Judge view: "Iowa is an agricultural state and anyone who doesn't like it can leave in any of four directions."
Yesterday the Iowa House approved a bill to relax manure storage regulations for large confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs). All of the House Republicans and two-thirds of the Democrats supported this bad legislation. Details on the bill and the House vote are below.
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Fri Mar 29, 2013 at 11:15:00 AM CDT
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Seventy-six countries around the world have a higher percentage of women in their national legislatures than the United States. Iowa is one of very few states that has never sent a woman to Congress. The open seat in Iowa's first Congressional district is a perfect chance to leave Mississippi in the dust. Yet so far, no women have announced plans to run for the seat Bruce Braley is vacating. Three men are in the race for sure: Pat Murphy, Steve Rathje, and Rod Blum. Steve Sodders is strongly considering it and visited Washington last week to talk with Democrats about the race. UPDATE: Sodders has ruled out running for Congress.
The last time IA-01 was open, four Democratic men and three Republican men sought to replace Jim Nussle. Are we looking at a repeat?
For years, academic researchers have shown that "when women run for office, they perform just as well as men." But they don't run for office as often as men do for lots of reasons. A new study suggests that from a young age, women are less likely than men to consider running for office someday (full report here).
Iowa Democratic Party leaders should be working to recruit a top-tier female candidate in IA-01, a Democratic-leaning seat that presents the best opportunity of my lifetime to send a woman to Congress. But that's not going to happen when party chair Tyler Olson is thinking about running for Congress himself. Republican Party of Iowa leaders should also be looking for a strong woman candidate to capitalize on Democrats' strategic error. I doubt that "liberating" thought would ever cross the minds of the "Liberty" gang running the Iowa GOP.
Sisters are going to have to do it for ourselves. Whether that's the "50-50 in 2020" organization co-chaired by former women elected officials and candidates or some informal group of political activists, it's time to identify and encourage women to step up to the plate in IA-01--before the early declared candidates get a large advantage in fundraising and endorsements.
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Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 14:05:00 PM CDT
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Representative Bruce Braley's campaign for the U.S. Senate has steadily rolled out endorsements this month. Eight labor unions have backed Braley's Senate bid so far, joined today by Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller and Iowa State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald.
Since Braley lacks any competition in the Democratic primary, these endorsements aren't newsworthy at face value. However, a closer look at the announcements points to five major themes the Braley campaign will highlight over the next 19 months.
UPDATE: Added a sixth theme below.
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Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 14:05:00 PM CDT
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Representative Bruce Braley's campaign for the U.S. Senate has steadily rolled out endorsements this month. Eight labor unions have backed Braley's Senate bid so far, joined today by Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller and Iowa State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald.
Since Braley lacks any competition in the Democratic primary, these endorsements aren't newsworthy at face value. However, a closer look at the announcements points to five major themes the Braley campaign will highlight over the next 19 months.
UPDATE: Added a sixth theme below.
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Thu Mar 28, 2013 at 07:10:00 AM CDT
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Yesterday Dubuque-based business owner Rod Blum formally announced his candidacy in the Republican primary to represent Iowa's first Congressional district. The same day, he received the endorsement of the Liberty Iowa PAC, formed two years ago by supporters of Ron Paul's presidential campaign. Both announcements are after the jump, along with my first thoughts on how much the Liberty movement could help Blum in the GOP primary.
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Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 07:05:00 AM CDT
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Dubuque business owner Rod Blum told the Marshall County Republican Central Committee this week that he plans to enter the GOP primary to represent the open first Congressional district. Blum finished a close second to Ben Lange in the 2012 IA-01 primary. Cedar Rapids business owner Steve Rathje was the first Republican to announce in IA-01. I haven't heard any news lately about other possible Republican candidates in the first district, like State Representative Walt Rogers or former Secretary of State Paul Pate.
Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer predicted on Sunday that the first Iowa woman elected governor or to Congress will be a Republican. If no Democratic woman steps up in IA-01, I believe Upmeyer will be proven right. I have heard from several independent sources that State Senator Liz Mathis is privately telling Democrats she won't run for Congress. Senate President Pam Jochum took herself out of the running last month. Former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate so far. State Senator Steve Sodders is talking with potential supporters about the race.
I haven't heard about any Republican planning to run against four-term Democrat Dave Loebsack in IA-02. For now, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee does not appear worried about holding this district.
According to the Des Moines rumor mill, former State Senator Staci Appel is considering a run for Congress in IA-03. Appel lives in Warren County and served one term in the Iowa Senate before losing to Republican Kent Sorenson in 2010. Mike Sherzan is currently the only declared Democratic challenger to ten-term Republican Tom Latham.
I haven't heard of any Democrats planning to challenge six-term incumbent Steve King in IA-04. I'm still confident King will not run for the U.S. Senate. But if King does leave the fourth district open, many Republicans are rumored to be thinking about that race, including Upmeyer and State Representative Chip Baltimore.
Any comments about next year's Congressional races in Iowa are welcome in this thread. A Congressional map is after the jump, along with the latest voter registration numbers in each district and Stuart Rothenberg's comments on why he does not consider Latham or King vulnerable in 2014.
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Sun Mar 17, 2013 at 10:05:00 AM CDT
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Happy St. Patrick's Day to Bleeding Heartland readers who celebrate the occasion. This is an open thread; all topics are welcome. For a laugh, enjoy The Onion's recent write-up of Iowa fashion week: "The big themes this season are 'roomy,' 'loose,' and 'comfortable.'"
After the jump I've posted a few links about health and happiness, including details from Gallup's 2012 report on well-being in the United States. Iowa ranked ninth on the "Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index" but was not one of the "elite five states" that have shown consistently high levels of resident well-being over five years.
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