Boswell makes long list of Republican targets

I'm not going to say (4.00 / 1)

I disagree b/c I don't have time to go through the list right now, but here's some food for thought on three districts from the list.

MD-01: Will be tough. Kratovil edged out Harris (the R) for two reasons: 1) 2.5% of the vote went to a third-party (Libertarian) candidate, and 2) the rural black vote. I would not count on 2) for that extra burst. So this one's an easy call for the NRCC, and we probably both agree.

VA-09: This is one that you have under 'lost cause.' I don't think Boucher had a challenger last time, but ... times can change. It's been years, but I've been to this area -- it's that stretch that borders KY and WV; in other words, coal country. Boucher's margins usually come from the UMW-heavy counties. What has changed in just a few months?

1. He lost a committee chair in the Waxman-Dingell dustup. Don't recall which one, but losing status is never helpful if your constituents find reasons to be angry down the line.

2. Speaking of which, he voted 'yes' on Waxman-Markley, which has PO'd people big-time in the area.

3. Rural hospitals in the area are begging him to vote against HR3200. A lot of poverty in the area. Fact is, the administration's claims of savings by reducing DSH payments for emergency care are on shaky ground, if you consider that Boston Medical is suing over this. There may be an ugly reality -- except for the 100% subsidized, lower-income workers will not want to purchase insurance, especially when there are no doctors in the area! Off to the hospital they go when the problem gets really, really bad (which is why outcomes in these areas are 'inefficient').

So, I don't see it as completely preposterous that he's on the list as a 'put into play.' The real question is whether they can/will find a good challenger

As always, I allow for greater volatility.

CQ Politics recently released new House ratings

Here's on thing I don't understand. I put more stock in your analysis than I do in that of the "experts," "analysts," or other authority figures you tend to drum up. What do you think about the following:

IA-03: My impression is that by splitting Polk County, an R can win. If the more rural counties shift R a bit, relative to 2008 (very likely) then an R can win even with a small D-advantage in Polk.

Consider that the turnout models in VA polling have been consistent (first SUSA, now PPP). Despite a 10pt Obama win, the electorate is shaping up as very energized Republicans, as compared to the 2008GE. Add to this that polling in the midwest has shown a shift away from Democrats.

Given this environment, Republican strategists might continue to eye IA-03 due to Boswell's lackluster win over Lamberti in 2006 during a D-wave year. Why is this less relevant than 2008 performance? Which turnout model is a better fit?

So, perhaps, maybe, this district can be put in play under 'perfect storm' conditions:

1. Branstad enters race and wins nom w/ interesting LG sidekick
2. Grassley top-of-ticket
3. A solid challenger from Polk.
4. A red-shift in Ankeny, Johnston, Urbandale, WDM, etc w/ Clive back to its red glory (esp the more you go west).
5. Ho-hum turnout in minority precincts.
6. Flat youth turnout or improved GOP youth performance.

What do you think? What if the NRCC already knows Branstad's decision?

If you think there's anything to talk about, I'll calculate what needs to happen for various demos. If you think "no way," I'll let it be.

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by: ragbrai08 @ Wed Aug 05, 2009 at 11:37:33 AM CDT

Number 1 & Number 3 (4.00 / 1)

I don't know enough to tell you if you should do your calculations or not, but I do have some ideas.

1. Who do you think would be an interesting LG for Branstad? Fong? Rants? Or are we talking something completely bizarre like coaxing Dan Gable or Tom Arnold into the fray?

3. I do know that, win or lose, Boswell is one of a dying breed. The days of the farmer-legislator are coming to an end. The election of Braley and Loebsack was a sea change. It shows that legislators in the future are going to be from urban/suburban and professional backgrounds.

The next person to hold the 3rd District seat (or whatever form it takes after 2010) will be from Des Moines or a suburb, and they will be a professional of some kind.

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by: American007 @ Wed Aug 05, 2009 at 16:19:19 PM CDT

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agree (4.00 / 1)

The days of the farmer-legislator are coming to an end.

The next person to hold the 3rd District seat (or whatever form it takes after 2010) will be from Des Moines or a suburb, and they will be a professional of some kind.

Generally speaking, districts on the list have to be analyzed for changing conditions.

I'm for Fong, if he's successful in expanding the GOP primary electorate. As I mentioned in a different thread, Obama was all but guaranteed the VP spot early on when it was obvious that youth voters favored his candidacy. I don't see how you can blow off a candidate that expands your reach.

Rants - I'm not sure what he brings to the table, except for pulling down some of the Woodbury county vote in the primary vs BVP and representing for western IA on a GE ticket.

Tom Arnold - {{shudder}} -- I don't like him. I learned this summer that he's Mr. Ottumwa. I guess a 'loose meat' sandwich is the same as pulled pork? Does he have any appeal statewide outside of Ottumwa? I'm very biased against his national image.

Not familiar w/ Dan Gable.

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by: ragbrai08 @ Wed Aug 05, 2009 at 21:30:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Dan Gable (0.00 / 0)

was a legendary wrestler and University of Iowa wrestling coach.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 11:42:17 AM CDT

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Scuttlebutt is... (0.00 / 0)

I heard from a professor here at the university who's a good friend of Dan Gable that Gable was kicking around the idea of jumping in in 2006. Bush and Co. got word of it and sent him on a White House trip, where they showed him polling data that said his numbers were "the best they've ever seen".

In the end, I guess, he just decided not to run after all. Bear in mind, that I have no proof of any of this actually taking place--just what an old professor told me.

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by: American007 @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 14:20:43 PM CDT

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who knows? (0.00 / 0)

Maybe Gable is one of the candidates Doug Gross is focus-grouping this summer.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 22:43:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

regarding splitting Polk County (0.00 / 0)

Ever since the last redistricting the GOP has always run a Polk County candidate against Boswell (Stan Thompson in 2002 and 2004, Jeff Lamberti in 2006, Kim Schmett in 2008).

The most western suburban/exurban areas are in Dallas County (Latham's district), but you are right that Urbandale, Clive etc have some very red precincts. Jerry Sullivan lost House district 59 last November by 93 votes out of about 16,000 cast, but he lost the Clive 3 and Clive 4 precincts by a combined 800 votes or so.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 22:42:48 PM CDT

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MD-01 is a likely GOP pickup (0.00 / 0)

They are definitely going to win back some of those conservative districts we narrowly won last year. Fortunately, they will have some very tough open seats to hold (PA-06, IL-10, maybe DE-AL), so that should keep their net gains low.

I'd be thrilled with GOP net gains of fewer than 10 in the House, but I wouldn't be surprised if they win as many as 20 seats. I still don't think IA-03 is near the top of their list of best opportunities, though.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 22:45:52 PM CDT

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underperformer (4.00 / 2)

Blue Dog Boz is on the list because he's been underperforming the district for most of the decade. 2008 was a glory year for Dems, but nobody Kim Schmett still reached 44%, better than some of the higher-touted candidates.

I'll be blunt: Boswell is (despite recent improvements) a poor fit for the district, old, and not in great health. But Iowa Democrats would rather lose the seat than hurt Leonard's feelings. The redistricting pair is going to be Boswell-Latham and I don't see Leonard winning that one. The GOP is smart enough to know that and even if they don't take a serious shot in `10 they'll attack him anyway soften him up for `12.

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by: jdeeth @ Wed Aug 05, 2009 at 15:46:29 PM CDT

I agree (4.00 / 1)

I wish big Democrats would have talked Boswell into retiring in 2008. I am not optimistic about our chances running Boswell or a new candidate (if Boswell retires) against Latham in 2012.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 11:44:05 AM CDT

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Boswell's heirs (0.00 / 0)

Assuming that the district ends up as a "Greater Des Moines" district, I think there are a couple of people who could hold their own against Latham.

I think Frank Cownie would do well. So would Kevin McCarthy. Mike Kiernan is doing a good job networking at IDP. If he doesn't drop the ball in 2010 and get drummed out, he could mount a formidable campaign. Outside of that, I don't know. I'm sure there are other people that would do well, though.

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by: American007 @ Thu Aug 06, 2009 at 14:32:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]