Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum all lead President Barack Obama in the latest Iowa poll that Selzer & Co conducted for the Des Moines Register. The Register posted the toplines on its website Saturday evening. Paul leads Obama by 49 percent to 42 percent, Santorum leads by 48 percent to 44 percent, and Romney leads by 46 percent to 44 percent. Obama crushes Newt Gingrich by 51 percent to 37 percent.
I’ll update this post tomorrow with additional details, to be published in the Sunday Des Moines Register. If Selzer’s poll of 611 likely voters (drawn from a sample of 800 Iowa adults) is accurate, Obama’s campaign has a lot of work to do here. Reaching 270 electoral votes without winning Iowa would be difficult for the president.
UPDATE: The exact wording of the election questions and results are here (pdf).
10 Comments
Polls
they sure it isn’t republican poll? Paul lead Obama by a 7 point margin? something is not right with this poll.
abgdinstr Sat 18 Feb 7:34 PM
that finding surprised me
but there haven’t been many Iowa polls lately, so I’m not assuming this is an outlier right away.
Keep in mind that even with a perfectly random sample, approximately 1 in 20 polls will be “wrong” just by chance (by wrong I mean that reality is outside the margin of error of the poll finding). The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent for the election questions in this poll.
desmoinesdem Sat 18 Feb 8:13 PM
In Dec
NBC/Marist found 42-42 Obama v Paul in Iowa. That poll had Obama beating all GOP except Paul.
The interesting things to look at in tomorrow’s details:
1. Youth breakdown. In the Dec poll, Paul led Obama here by +14 under-45.
2. %Dem crossover. The NBC poll had 15% Dems voting Paul over Obama. Yes, yes, I know, all Dems in Iowa love Obama except cranky 1% uncommitted types.
3. Independents. Paul led 42-35.
If youth/Dems/NP are responsible tomorrow, I’d be less likely to pooh-pooh these findings. Why Iowa? The caucus, of course. He had a lot of face time here, unlike most other states.
albert Sat 18 Feb 8:55 PM
here we go
Unfortunately, no mention today of %independents supporting Paul or %Dems. Big “surprise” — gender gap, likely male voters 54-36 Paul.
albert Sun 19 Feb 6:47 AM
geez
Romney leads Obama w/ voters under 35.
albert Sun 19 Feb 6:52 AM
that is hard to believe
I would like to see another Iowa poll replicate that finding.
desmoinesdem Sun 19 Feb 8:41 AM
here's a thought for you
I don’t find it difficult to believe at this time.
I speak to numerous students daily at a large “Obama-friendly” campus in a state Obama will win. The overwhelming net reaction is disappointment and reluctance to participate in the political process in the future. I hear “never again” a lot. I can believe this. In 2010 Iowa, the student participants were more conservative not only at UIowa (where the drinking age was on the ballot) but at Ames as well, relative to 2006. If a significant number of 2008 Obama-enthusiastic participants of a tender age take the ‘never again’ attitude, the under-30 segment is pushed to the right by default.
Two things I hear a lot. One, in response to “all politicians lie/have to play the game” is a curt “he did it too fast – right away.” It is perceived as premeditated. Second, I don’t think professional Democrats “get” how badly the “he has to be cautious because he’s black” plays to minority youth. It’s tantamount to saying that a non-white is crippled in leadership roles, aka the soft bigotry of low expectations. What a negative message! And it’s worse when it’s in the context of issues that are considered a (neglected) priority.
At action-oriented student meetings, working within the political system is looked upon with horror. The emphasis is on crafting solutions that avoid politicians. I find that students today are very practical and business-like. Hope and change isn’t going to work. If you have something concrete to offer, that’s a different story. Perhaps free iPads and MacBook Pros will work.
If I compare student life today with what I experienced, I find that they are realistic about how they are being cynically gouged. It was veiled while we were in school, but it’s out in the open now, raw. It’s hard to pick out my “favorite” screw job, but here’s one that’s new. In the sciences, the trend is to not assign problems from the course textbook but to have them complete homework online from a central databank of questions. So the course textbook and student study guide get bundled together with an access code for the site for big $$, in the hundreds usually, but the individual books can’t be sold back at the end of the year because the new crop of students will need an access code, see? Ugh.
I expect opinion polling to be volatile through the general election. I don’t think people are happy with the choices on either side. The predictive value of these polls is low in the long-term. That’s always been true, but even more so this time.
Ron Paul is absolutely right on the education bubble. I often shake my head — how did a state school become the most expensive place to get a cup of coffee or a slice of pizza in the area, where there’s plenty of competition for top honors? Some of the students feel very guilty about the burden on parents. It’s all very unhealthy. Neither political party will put on the table that there’s an awful problem that extends well beyond “tuition increases.”
albert Sun 19 Feb 12:03 PM
plenty to be cynical about
for their generation.
Obama’s re-election team needs to figure out a GOTV strategy that doesn’t depend on thousands of eager volunteers. They won’t materialize in anything like the 2008 numbers.
The “good news” for them is that there is time to build negative narratives about Romney and Santorum, but negative campaigns are more likely to depress turnout than increase it.
desmoinesdem Mon 20 Feb 6:19 AM
November
I’m just an average schmoe, not really connected to the deep ins and outs of politics. But I cannot see how Obama loses the election if the economy continues to improve. I don’t like the idea of $4 gas, which will appear again by Memorial Day. But, having said that, the economy doesn’t have to be great. Even a dead car bounce would be enough. The GOP simply didn’t put up the right candidates – Mitch D, Christie, possibly even Jeb Bush might’ve generated some serious summpin’ summpin’ beyond the entertainment value of the Cain train or Michele Bachmann. If Romney is the nominee, the Obamans have a treasure trove of material from which to choose, from ‘not caring about the poor’ to ‘corporations are people, too.” The Obamans have this huge wad of cash and organization and now a PAC ready to roll. They can talk about the car industry and Osama. We’re out of Iraq and getting the hell out of Afgan. My 22 year-old son has health insurance. My 26-year-old works for a Fortune 300 company which is adding jobs, distributing bonuses and giving raises to the peons like her. Is everything perfect? Of course not. Far far from it, but it is better than it was. There is a little sliver of blue sky out there and as long as people can see that, I don’t they will be ready to throw the man out.
Like I said, I’m just an average schmoe, just lookin’ at what’s going on in my life. And I would be happy, even eager, to vote for anyone I thought could do better, but there isn’t anyone out there right now. So I’m sticking with BHO.
rockm Sun 19 Feb 12:51 PM
not too many "average schmoes"
are regular commenters at a political blog. You are clearly much more engaged in Iowa politics than the average person.
I wouldn’t assume the economy will continue to improve gradually this year. That’s possible, but other outcomes are equally possible.
With respect to this DMR poll, the best news for Obama is that there’s no way Paul will be the nominee. He’s within the margin of error against Romney and not far behind Santorum, whose negatives have not been fully explored with the Iowa audience. Whatever unfavorable views people hold about Obama are out there, but there’s time to create more unfavorable impressions about Santorum or Romney.
desmoinesdem Mon 20 Feb 6:14 AM