The monthlong search for University of Iowa student Mollie Tibbetts ended in heartbreak today. Cristhian Bahena Rivera led investigators to the victim’s body in a cornfield. He reportedly confessed to the crime and faces first-degree murder charges.

Because Rivera is from Mexico and has been living in this country without authorization for several years, Iowa’s top Republican elected officials moved quickly to blame Tibbetts’ tragic death on immigration policy.

Freedom to chase any story that captures my attention is the best part of running this website. A strong sense of purpose carries me through the most time-consuming projects. But not all work that seems worthwhile is fun. Classic example: I didn’t enjoy communicating with the white nationalist leader who bankrolled racist robocalls to promote Donald Trump shortly before the Iowa caucuses.

Continuing a tradition I started last year, here are the Bleeding Heartland posts from 2016 that have a special place in my heart. Not all of them addressed important Iowa political news, but all were a joy to write.

I was hoping for Newt Gingrich, and Donald Trump’s “gut” wanted to go with Chris Christie, but family members and campaign chairman Paul Manafort managed to persuade the impulsive billionaire that Mike Pence was the smart pick. The Indiana governor is a strong conservative and could do the most unify the party, having endorsed Ted Cruz in April.

Trump should have been able to get a boost from his running mate choice going into the Republican National Convention. Instead, he fumbled the rollout in several ways, summarized well by Philip Bump. It must have humiliated Pence to have CNN, the New York Times, NBC News, and other media outlets focus on Trump’s last-minute doubts about the pick, instead of on what Pence brings to the ticket. Christie suffered an even greater blow at the hands of the man he endorsed in February.

I’m no graphic design expert, but the Trump-Pence logo is a disaster. I thought it was a joke the first time I saw it yesterday, when a Facebook friend shared this not-safe-for-work commentary. Gregory Krieg reported more delicately for CNN that the logo “is raising eyebrows” and “drawing titters from cheeky tweeters.” Iowa Twitter user @jbelcap pointed out that there is a “hidden negative space H” in the graphic as well.

Any comments about the Trump-Pence ticket are welcome in this thread. UPDATE: It took only one day for the Trump campaign to dump the logo and scrub all images of it from the website. The new logo is after the jump.

U.S. Senator Joni Ernst met with Donald Trump today in New Jersey. The statement she released later said nothing about being his running mate. However, citing unnamed sources close to Trump’s campaign, CNN’s Jamie Gangel, Jim Acosta, and Sara Murray reported yesterday that Ernst “is being considered” for the vice presidential nomination.

In mid-June, Ernst told Iowa reporters she doubted she was on Trump’s short list, since no one from the campaign had reached out to her. Indiana Governor Mike Pence is now the leading candidate to be the GOP running mate, according to CNN’s sources, followed by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. David M. Jackson reported for USA Today that Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas is also under consideration. Others have mentioned Senators Bob Corker of Tennessee and Jeff Sessions of Alabama, or perhaps Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin.

In May, both Governor Terry Branstad and Senator Chuck Grassley endorsed the idea of Ernst as Trump’s running mate. Though some see Iowa’s junior senator as a good fit for the GOP ticket, I think Trump would do better to choose someone with more governing and policy experience.

I’m keeping my fingers crossed for Gingrich, for maximum Hillary Clinton blowout potential. On the other hand, being closely associated with Trump would hurt Ernst politically in the long run, despite the initial boost to her stature. So I would welcome a Trump-Ernst ticket as well.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. I enclose below today’s full statement from Ernst. My favorite part referred to ensuring the U.S. remains “a strong, stabilizing force around the globe.” Trump in the Oval Office would be the opposite of a stabilizing presence. Almost every week he makes some impulsive comment that could cause an international incident if he were president.

UPDATE: Pence met with Trump on July 2, Brian Slodysko reported for the Associated Press. A spokesperson for the Indiana governor, who endorsed Ted Cruz for president a few days before his state’s primary in April, said “nothing was offered” during Pence’s meeting with the presumptive GOP nominee. Pence would be a stronger running mate than Ernst, though why someone who may have his own presidential ambitions would want to hitch his wagon to Trump, I can’t imagine.

SECOND UPDATE: Sarah Boden reported for Iowa Public Radio on July 5 that Grassley again said Ernst would be a good running mate for Trump, citing her “military and legislative experience, and her expertise as someone from a rural, agricultural state.”

THIRD UPDATE: Added below excerpts from stories by Daniel Halper and Robert Costa about Trump considering one of his advisers, Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn.

Though presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump says something outrageous on almost a daily basis, I can’t get over his incredibly offensive comments this week about U.S. District Court Judge Gonzalo Curiel. On Thursday he said out loud that a judge should not hear the case involving alleged fraud by one of his companies, because Curiel’s “Mexican heritage” creates “an absolute conflict.”

Trump doubled down in an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper yesterday. Media Matters posted the partial transcript, and I’ve enclosed excerpts below. Trump repeatedly asserted he has been “treated very unfairly” by Judge Curiel, because “I’m building a wall” along the Mexican border. He called Curiel “Mexican” even though the judge is a native-born U.S. citizen and repeatedly said the judge is “proud of his heritage,” as if that should be disqualifying. He also claimed the case involving Trump University should have been over two years ago–but if that’s the case, what does the wall have to do with it? Trump only started talking about the border wall last year, as a presidential candidate.

I’ve never heard Republican strategist Ana Navarro sound as angry as she did while talking about these comments on CNN yesterday. Her kicker: “what he is doing is disgusting. I am livid about it, and if this is his strategy to win over Hispanics, he’s got a hell of a wake-up call coming to him come November.”

In early 2013, the Republican National Committee published its Growth & Opportunity Project, better known as the so-called “autopsy” on Mitt Romney’s failed 2012 presidential campaign. A key point in that document concerned the need for Republicans to do a better job appealing to Latino voters. It’s hard to conceive of a candidate more alienating to that demographic than Trump. This week, Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns reported for the New York Times that Ruth Guerra is resigning as head of the RNC’s Hispanic media relations because she did not want to work for Trump. Adrian Carrasquillo reported for Buzzfeed that Guerra’s replacement Helen Aguirre Ferré has been “very critical of Trump in a multitude of Spanish-language interviews” and wrote in now-deleted Tweets that she was #NeverTrump.

Every Iowa Republican who has promised to support Trump should be held accountable for the GOP standard-bearer’s bigoted view of a federal judge. Let’s start with Senator Chuck Grassley, who is preventing President Barack Obama from filling a U.S. Supreme Court vacancy in the hope that Trump will be able to name Justice Antonin Scalia’s successor. Does Grassley think whole ethnic groups should be disqualified from hearing certain kinds of cases?

UPDATE: Several prominent Republicans have condemned Trump’s remarks about Curiel, Dan Balz reported for the Washington Post. One of them was Newt Gingrich: “I don’t know what Trump’s reasoning was, and I don’t care, […] His description of the judge in terms of his parentage is completely unacceptable.” Maybe a Trump/Newt ticket isn’t the perfect match I thought it would be. LATER UPDATE: On June 6 Trump said on Fox News, “as far as Newt is concerned, I saw Newt, I was surprised at Newt, I thought it was inappropriate what he said.”

SECOND UPDATE: Grassley didn’t condemn Trump’s remarks during his meetings in meetings in three towns on June 3 as part of his 99-county tour. Asked to comment by Pat Rynard, Grassley said, “It would help him very much to be elected President of the U.S. if he would be a little more mild in his demeanor.” In other words, the chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee has nothing to say about the substance of Trump’s beliefs about a federal judge’s ethnicity as disqualifying. But Grassley wishes Trump would display a different “demeanor” to improve his chances of winning the November election. Weak.

At Grassley’s Humboldt even, he dodged a question from someone else about Trump’s comments: “And the other point your brought up about what he says about a judge, I’ve already answered that–there’s a process for anybody that doesn’t like the judge you have, you think that judge isn’t going to be fair, you can file a petition. And if you file a petition that a judge should get out, and that judge says you shouldn’t get out, then you’ve got a right to appeal that to a higher court and get fair judgment that way.” Again, he did not address the central issue: the Republican candidate believes a judge whose parents came to this country from Mexico cannot be impartial.

Meanwhile, Trump refused to back down during a June 5 appearance on the CBS show “Face the Nation.” Now he says it’s “common sense” that being “proud of his heritage” is why Judge Curiel “not treating me fairly.” Furthermore, Trump told John Dickerson, it’s “possible” that a Muslim judge also would not be able to treat him fairly in court.

THIRD UPDATE: Added below some of Governor Terry Branstad’s outrageous comments on the story.

FOURTH UPDATE: Grassley spoke further about the subject to Roll Call’s Bridget Bowman. Excerpts are below.

Former U.S. Representative Greg Ganske has a guest column in today’s Des Moines Register making the case for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich as Donald Trump’s running mate. Gingrich has been unofficially auditioning for the job lately. Ganske argues that Newt has the qualities that Trump has said he’s looking for: someone with “a strong political background, who was well respected on the Hill, who can help me with legislation, and who could be a great president.”

Although Governor Terry Branstad is pushing Senator Joni Ernst to be Trump’s running mate, several well-known Iowa Republicans would probably be as thrilled with a Trump-Gingrich ticket as Ganske. Iowa House Speaker Linda Upmeyer was Gingrich’s first high-profile endorser here in 2011, when she was Iowa House majority leader. State party chair Jeff Kaufmann also supported Gingrich before the 2012 caucuses, when Kaufmann served as Iowa House speaker pro-tem. In December 2011, Gingrich picked up support from several more GOP state lawmakers, including then Speaker Kraig Paulsen and rising star Chris Hagenow, who is now House majority leader.

While Gingrich has never struck a chord with me, he seems like a perfect match for Trump, and not only because he has the policy knowledge the presumptive Republican nominee lacks.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread.

Ben Adler published a highly entertaining article a few days ago about former presidential candidates Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and Mike Huckabee. Can’t say I was surprised to learn they are all making big money off spam e-mails selling dubious products to former political supporters.

Questions persist over New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s involvement in lane closures on the George Washington Bridge. I doubt the disgraced former Port Authority official has any real dirt on Christie. If he gets the immunity from criminal prosecution he’s seeking, I expect his so-called “evidence” about the governor will turn out to be a whole lot of nothing. Furthermore, if Christie runs for president in 2016, I believe his signing New Jersey’s version of the DREAM Act will be more of a liability in the GOP primaries than anything related to the bridge scandal. Nevertheless, the controversy does appear to have Christie rattled.

Who’s old enough to remember Dinesh D’Souza? He made a name for himself during the 1980s as a conservative provocateur on the Dartmouth campus. He later became a popular paid speaker and occasional talking head. (Unofficial nickname: Distort D’Newsa.) In late January, he was indicted for allegedly breaking federal campaign finance laws. Naturally, D’Souza claims his prosecution may be “a kind of payback” for his documentary film “which links the supposedly anti-colonialist views of [President Barack] Obama’s father to the policies of the Obama presidency.”

Closer to home, misconduct involving federal grants has ended the careers of two former Iowa State University faculty. Palaniappa Molian was a tenured professor in the highly-regarded College of Engineering when he spent federal grant funds on personal expenses unrelated to his research. Last week he pled guilty to felony charges of making false statements; he will be sentenced in April and could face up to five years in prison. It’s not clear yet whether criminal charges will be filed in a much worse case of fraud involving former ISU Assistant Professor Dong-Pyou Han, who had to resign in December after falsifying research on a vaccine for AIDS. James Bradac of the National Institutes of Health told the Des Moines Register that Han’s test results were “the worst case of research fraud he’d seen in his 24 years at the federal agency.”

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread.

Iowa Republicans will have at least two women on the statewide ballot in 2014: Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds and State Auditor Mary Mosiman, who kicked off her election campaign on Thursday in Des Moines. Excerpts from Kevin Hall’s write-up of the event are after the jump.

State Senator Joni Ernst could also become a statewide nominee if she joins the U.S. Senate race, as expected. I think she has strong potential in a GOP primary against three or four men. At this writing, no Democratic woman has announced plans to run for any statewide office in Iowa, but several have either launched or are considering Congressional campaigns.

This week Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer replaced Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen on the Legislative Leaders Advisory Board of Newt Gingrich’s organization GOPAC. Upmeyer was an early endorser of Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign. Paulsen endorsed Gingrich shortly before the 2012 Iowa caucuses. If Paulsen runs for Congress in the open first district, Upmeyer will probably also seek to replace him as Iowa House speaker. She would be the first woman to reach that position in our state, although she’s not a shoo-in for the job. (For what it’s worth, I doubt Paulsen would win an IA-01 Republican primary.)

Last month Upmeyer and Reynolds joined the national advisory board of the Republican State Leadership Committee’s project to recruit more women candidates, called Right Women, Right Now. Upmeyer has served on the national board of the conservative American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) for several years.

Speaking of women elected officials, Eric Ostermeier wrote an interesting piece for the Smart Politics blog on how the 78 women in the U.S. House identify themselves. Three Republicans go by “Congressman” instead of “Congresswoman” or “Representative.”

Outgoing Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, asked by Barbara Walters about running for president:

“I’ve said I really don’t believe that that’s something I will do again,” says Clinton. “I am so grateful I had the experience of doing it before. I think there are lots of ways to serve, so I’ll continue to serve.” […]

Clinton adds, “I just want to see what else is out there. I’ve been doing this incredibly important and satisfying work in Washington as I say for 20 years. I want to get out and spend some time looking at what else I can do to contribute.”

That’s the least convincing non-denial denial I’ve heard in a while. The next Democratic presidential nomination is Hillary Clinton’s if she wants it. I don’t see her turning her back on that chance.

UPDATE: I am in rare agreement with Newt Gingrich: if Hillary runs for president in 2016, “the Republican party today is incapable of competing at that level.”

It’s never too early to start speculating about the next Iowa caucuses.  

Preliminary results from today’s Texas primary indicate that Mitt Romney now has enough delegates to win the Republican Party’s presidential nomination. Only two months ago, it seemed plausible that Romney might not reach the 1,144 delegate threshold until later this summer.

My Newt Gingrich campaign deathwatch thread was about a year ahead of its time, but Gingrich finally suspended his presidential campaign this afternoon.  

Matt Strawn stepped down early from his job as chair of the Republican Party of Iowa, but he will be immersed in this November’s down-ticket elections as Iowa chair of the 527 group GOPAC.

Is Mitt Romney destined to become the presidential nominee least liked by his own party’s activists? Yesterday’s elections to the Republican Party of Iowa’s State Central Committee provided another clue that the answer is yes.

I thought Governor Chet Culver was late to the party when he endorsed Barack Obama a month after the 2008 Iowa caucuses. At that time it was still unclear who would prevail in the Democratic primaries. In contrast, there’s no suspense left in this year’s GOP nominating process. Governor Terry Branstad finally declared today that Republicans should “coalesce around one candidate.”

Meanwhile, Rick Santorum is holding a press conference this afternoon to announce that he is ending his presidential campaign.

Former Senator Rick Santorum has indicated that he’ll stay in the presidential race at least until the Pennsylvania primary later this month, but tonight could be the de facto end of his candidacy. Early returns from Maryland show Mitt Romney above 50 percent of the vote and Santorum below 30 percent. Wisconsin should be a closer contest, but recent opinion polls indicate that Romney is the likely winner.

President Barack Obama targeted Romney by name in a speech to Associated Press writers and editors today. Click here for the full transcript.

I’ll update this post later with more results from Maryland and Wisconsin. Any comments about the presidential campaign are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Santorum conceded early, speaking on television less than a half-hour after Wisconsin polls closed. I’m surprised, because unofficial results indicate that Romney didn’t win by much there: 42 percent for the front-runner, 38 percent for Santorum, 12 percent for Ron Paul, and 6 percent for Newt Gingrich. Maryland was a blowout, as expected: 49 percent for Romney, 29 percent for Santorum, 11 percent for Gingrich, 10 percent for Paul. Romney received 70 percent of the vote among roughly 4,000 Republicans who voted in Washington, DC. Santorum wasn’t on the ballot there. Paul received 12 percent and Gingrich 11 percent.

Excerpts from last night’s speeches by Santorum and Romney are after the jump.  

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? Hope you are enjoying the unseasonably warm spring weather.

Mitt Romney may be the least-liked presidential front-runner ever among the Republican base, but he seems to have a lock on the GOP nomination. Despite losing the Louisiana primary convincingly to Rick Santorum yesterday, Romney has nearly half of the 1,144 delegates needed to secure the nomination. Santorum has fewer than half as many delegates, and only 21 states plus Washington, DC have yet to vote.

Competition for the “not Romney” niche may allow Mitt Romney to emerge from today’s Deep South primaries as a close second or third, rather than as a front-runner hated by the conservative base. With about a third of the votes counted in Alabama as of 9 pm, Rick Santorum has 35 percent of the vote, Newt Gingrich has 30 percent, Romney has 28 percent, and Ron Paul has 5 percent. Nearly 80 percent of the votes have been counted in Mississippi, where Santorum has 33 percent, Gingrich 32 percent, Romney 30 percent, and Paul 4 percent. Polls are still open in Hawaii, where I assume Romney will win easily. None of the candidates spent much time campaigning there.

Any comments about the Republican presidential race are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: The streak continues: Romney has not won any Republican primary or caucus “where the evangelical portion of the vote has been over 50 percent.” Final unofficial results from Mississippi: Santorum 33 percent, Gingrich 31 percent, Romney 30 percent, Paul 4 percent. From Alabama: Santorum 35 percent, Gingrich 29 percent, Romney 29 percent, Paul 5 percent.

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: 45 percent of Hawaii primary voters went for Romney; Santorum had 25 percent, Paul 18 percent, Gingrich 11 percent.

Tonight may be the last chance for Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich to stop Mitt Romney from becoming the Republican presidential nominee. Senator Chuck Grassley hinted to The Hill today that he may endorse Romney if Romney wins the Ohio primary. I’m guessing that Newt will pull enough votes in Ohio to keep Santorum from beating Romney. I also suspect that Santorum will lose the Catholic vote in Ohio, like he did in Michigan. He and Gingrich have to hope that convincing victories in southern states give them an excuse to stay in the race.

I’ll post results from all the Super Tuesday states after the jump. Any comments about the presidential campaign are welcome in this thread.

Polls just closed in Michigan and will close in an hour in Arizona. Mitt Romney’s fighting for his political life in the state where his father used to be governor. I cannot believe that someone who’s been in politics as long as Romney says things like my wife “drives a couple of Cadillacs” and “I have some great friends that are NASCAR team owners.”

I love how Rick Santorum’s campaign robocalled Michigan Democrats seeking their votes in the primary because Romney opposed the bailout of U.S. automakers. The call didn’t mention that Santorum also has spoken out against that bailout.

I’ll update this post later with results. Meanwhile, any comments about the Republican presidential race are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Romney is easily winning Arizona with 49 percent of the votes to 25 percent for Santorum, 16 percent for Newt Gingrich, and 9 percent for Ron Paul. LATER UPDATE: Final Arizona results: Romney 47, Santorum 27, Gingrich 16, Paul 8. Romney gets all 29 delegates from the state.

With about three-quarters of the Michigan votes counted, Romney’s the projected winner with 41 percent to 37 percent for Santorum, 12 percent for Paul, and 7 percent for Gingrich. LATER UPDATE: With almost all the votes in, Romney’s at 41, Santorum 38, Paul 12, Gingrich 7. It’s not clear yet whether Romney or Santorum will win more delegates, which are assigned by Congressional district in Michigan. Exit polls suggest that Romney carried the Catholic vote in Michigan, which means it wasn’t too smart for Santorum to attack JFK during the final week of the campaign.

In a CNN interview, Paul denied that he is “in cahoots” with Romney.  

Longtime Iowa Republican consultant Nick Ryan created the Red, White and Blue super-PAC a few months ago to support Rick Santorum’s presidential bid. This week news emerged that the super-PAC has been a huge gravy train for a brand-new company Ryan owns.

In related news, the Federal Election Commission is seeking further information on more than $300,000 Newt Gingrich has received from his own presidential campaign as reimbursements for unitemized expenses.

Tonight the four remaining Republican candidates for president take the stage in Mesa, Arizona, for the final debate before super Tuesday. CNN will broadcast the debate starting at 7 pm central time. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are under the most pressure to dent Rick Santorum’s momentum. Based on the last few debates, I expect Ron Paul to take more shots at Gingrich and Santorum than at Romney.

Any comments about the GOP presidential race are welcome in this thread. I’ll update the post later.

UPDATE: That debate wasn’t very interesting. Romney seemed to do a little better than Santorum, but I didn’t think anyone was on top form. Paul went after Santorum and mostly left Romney alone. Gingrich absurdly promised $2.50/gallon gasoline. I posted some excerpts from the CNN transcript after the jump.

Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum all lead President Barack Obama in the latest Iowa poll that Selzer & Co conducted for the Des Moines Register. The Register posted the toplines on its website Saturday evening. Paul leads Obama by 49 percent to 42 percent, Santorum leads by 48 percent to 44 percent, and Romney leads by 46 percent to 44 percent. Obama crushes Newt Gingrich by 51 percent to 37 percent.

I’ll update this post tomorrow with additional details, to be published in the Sunday Des Moines Register. If Selzer’s poll of 611 likely voters (drawn from a sample of 800 Iowa adults) is accurate, Obama’s campaign has a lot of work to do here. Reaching 270 electoral votes without winning Iowa would be difficult for the president.

UPDATE: The exact wording of the election questions and results are here (pdf).

Colorado and Minnesota held caucuses today, while Missouri held a “beauty contest” primary (that state’s delegates will be determined by caucuses set for March 17). A few links on the Republican presidential race are after the jump, and I’ll be adding results as they come in. Tonight may be Rick Santorum’s best shot at becoming the “not Romney” flavor of the month.

It’s been years since a pro-choice moderate Republican represented any Iowa House and Senate district in the Des Moines suburbs. In this June’s GOP primary in Senate district 22, we’ll find out whether a mainstream Republican stands a chance against a loud voice on the party’s social conservative wing.

Anyone else in the Bleeding Heartland community not planning to watch the Superbowl tonight?

Jobs are on my mind this weekend. On Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics released some encouraging employment numbers. On the same day, news broke about proposed Air Force cuts that could eliminate around 500 jobs in the Des Moines area.  

With about 80 percent of the votes counted in the Florida GOP primary, Mitt Romney is beating Newt Gingrich by 47 percent to 32 percent, a wider margin than most of the last week’s polls had indicated. Rick Santorum and Ron Paul are well back with 13 percent and 7 percent, respectively.

Any comments about the Republican presidential race are welcome in this thread. It’s hard for me to see a path for Gingrich or anyone besides Romney winning the nomination. Even though 39 percent of exit poll respondents in Florida “said they were not satisfied” with the candidates on the ballot, a doubt a new conservative “not Romney” savior could seize the crown.

Mitt Romney is offering Florida voters a “history lesson” about Newt Gingrich this weekend.

Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul spar tonight in Jacksonville, their last debate before next Tuesday’s Florida primary. Several polls released this week have shown slight leads for Romney, but Gingrich is still in contention. It helps that a couple of wealthy supporters have given a pro-Gingrich super-PAC $10 million. A large chunk of that money is funding anti-Romney television commercials in Florida.

CNN is broadcasting tonight’s debate, with Wolf Blitzer moderating. I’ll update this post later with highlights. Any comments about the Republican presidential race are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: I’ve added an anti-Romney and an anti-Gingrich ad after the jump.

SECOND UPDATE: Post-debate thoughts are now below.

This morning former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign released Romney’s 2010 tax return and some details on the “unemployed” candidate’s 2011 income. Some links and analysis are after the jump.

The final four Republican presidential candidates debate tonight in Tampa, starting at 8 pm central time on NBC. Mitt Romney will try to keep the focus off his own finances, having promised to release two years of tax returns tomorrow. Romney may also be more aggressive about drawing contrasts with Newt Gingrich, judging from a new Romney tv ad I’ve posted after the jump.

In the latest Republican debates, Ron Paul criticized Gingrich and Rick Santorum repeatedly, while mostly ignoring Romney’s record. I expect him to stick to that plan, which has a double benefit: it keeps Paul on good terms with the most likely GOP nominee while undermining his rivals for the “not Romney” vote.

I assume abortion will be a significant topic tonight, in light of the 39th anniversary of the U.S. Supreme Court’s Roe v Wade decision. I don’t know what more the candidates can say on the subject, which has been explored in several previous debates.

Any comments about the debate or the GOP campaign generally are welcome in this thread.  

Polls close in South Carolina at 7 pm eastern time, and most observers now expect Newt Gingrich to beat Mitt Romney. Gingrich led the last several polls to come out of the state, and an unnamed Romney aide is spinning a tale about a Newt win being good for the GOP front-runner going forward.

Any comments about the Republican presidential primaries are welcome in this thread. I don’t think Rick Santorum will drop out at this stage, even if he finishes a distant third or fourth place tonight. He may as well stick it out until the Florida primary on January 31, to see whether Gingrich fades again as the preferred “not Romney.” Whether Santorum has the money to compete is another question. Romney has been up on Florida tv and radio for a while. Gingrich is running what sounds like a devastating Spanish-language radio ad against Romney, although Cuban-American GOP members of Congress from South Florida have endorsed Romney.

UPDATE: It’s Newt by a mile. With about 88 percent of the votes counted, Gingrich has 40.5 percent of the vote, Romney 27.0 percent, Santorum 17.4 percent and Ron Paul 13.4 percent. Excerpts from the candidates’ speeches tonight are after the jump.

LATER UPDATE: With 100 percent reporting, Gingrich received 40.4 percent of the vote, Romney 27.9 percent, Santorum 17.0 percent and Paul 13.0 percent. Gingrich won 23 of South Carolina’s delegates, while Romney won the other two. Romney carried only three counties.  

With Rick Perry dropping out of the race to endorse Newt Gingrich this morning, four Republican presidential candidates remained for tonight’s CNN debate in South Carolina. Any comments about the debate or about Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul or Rick Santorum are welcome in this thread. I’ll update with my thoughts later–so far I’m most encouraged to hear some statements by the candidates against the Stop Online Piracy Act.

UPDATE: Missed the first part of the live broadcast, but finished watching the replay on CNN and added some comments after the jump.

The Republican Party of Iowa will not declare Rick Santorum the winner of the Iowa caucuses, even though he leads Mitt Romney by a few dozen votes according to the certified results, and led Romney unofficially in the eight precincts where results could not be certified. A narrow margin of victory with a clear winner would have been great for the Iowa GOP, as it would show multiple paths to winning the caucuses. A disputed result that produces no official winner is a public relations nightmare.

UPDATE: Iowa GOP Chair Matt Strawn now admits Santorum won the caucuses. The episode still makes the party look bad, for reasons I discuss below.

Jon Huntsman’s exit from the presidential race leaves five Republican candidates taking the stage tonight for a Fox News debate, co-sponsored by the Wall Street Journal and the South Carolina GOP.

I will update this post later with highlights. I don’t expect Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick Perry or Rick Santorum to do any real damage to Mitt Romney. Any comments about this debate or the GOP primary campaign are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: I missed part of the debate, but some thoughts are after the jump.

Mitt Romney’s record at Bain Capital is under increasing scrutiny as opponents try desperately to stop him from winning next Saturday’s GOP primary in South Carolina. Some of the anti-Romney narratives can’t stand up to the same level of scrutiny. I’ve posted some links on the “Bain way” and other factors in the Republican presidential race after the jump.  

Polls just closed in New Hampshire, so here’s a thread for talking about the results as they come in. PBS will be updating vote totals here.

Any comments about the presidential race are welcome in this thread. It’s hard for me to see any of the other Republicans stopping Mitt Romney, especially with Rick Perry helping to splinter the conservative vote ahead of the South Carolina primary on January 21. Nor can I see any path for Jon Huntsman, even if he finishes a strong second or third tonight. I’m highly amused by Newt Gingrich’s strident rhetoric against Bain-style vulture capitalism.

UPDATE: With two-thirds of the vote in, Romney is the clear winner by a double-digit margin (38 percent to 24 percent for Ron Paul and 17 percent for Huntsman, with Gingrich and Santorum at 10 percent). Right now Perry trails “other.”

SECOND UPDATE: With 95 percent of precincts reporting, Romney has 39 percent, Paul 23 percent, Huntsman 17 percent, Gingrich and Santorum 9 percent each, and Perry 1 percent.

As Bleeding Heartland user albert pointed out in the comments, President Barack Obama received only about 82 percent of more than 50,000 votes cast in the Democratic primary. Nearly 10 percent of Democratic primary voters wrote in candidates. Of the 13 other named candidates on the Democratic ballot, two received more than 1 percent of the vote: Ed Cowan, who ran on a platform of “major change,”, and Vermin Supreme, a performance artist running on a joke platform.

Six Republican candidates are debating twice in 15 hours this weekend ahead of Tuesday’s primary in New Hampshire. Mitt Romney, who’s way ahead of the field, will be playing not to lose. Everyone else will be under pressure to trip him up.

Any comments about the ABC debate on Saturday night or Sunday morning’s encounter on “Meet the Press” are welcome in this thread. I’ll liveblog the ABC debate after the jump.

Moderate Republican Fred Karger was excluded from these and all previous televised debates, but he has been campaigning in New Hampshire and has a tv ad on the air. Transcript: “Fed up with the Republican Party? Well, there’s one candidate you just might like. Fred Karger is the only moderate Republican running for president. He’s pro-choice, supports gay marriage, and wants us out of Afghanistan now. Send the Republican Party a message: vote for Fred Karger for president.”

UPDATE: Added excerpts from the Meet the Press debate transcript at the end of this post.

Representative Michele Bachmann is suspending her presidential campaign this morning after finishing sixth in the Iowa caucuses. In the summer, she briefly became the first female GOP presidential candidate to be a major contender in key early states. What happened to her afterwards won’t encourage other women to seek higher office.

This thread is for sharing stories from your precinct caucus meetings as well as for discussing the results once they have been reported.

Iowa Republicans and Democrats, I’m particularly interested to know how many candidates for Congress or the state legislature addressed your caucus, or had a campaign representative greet caucus-goers and speak on their behalf. GOP Congressional challenger Rod Blum is planning to meet Republicans in two IA-01 counties instead of caucusing in his home town of Dubuque. GOP Representative Tom Latham, who is running against Leonard Boswell next year in IA-03, claims to have lined up leaders in all 384 precincts across the district. Steve King’s challenger, Christie Vilsack, is speaking to all Democratic caucus-goers in Story County’s sole caucus location, Ames High School.

UPDATE: Adding results after the jump.