Jon Muller is a semi-retired policy analyst and entrepreneur who previously was a tax analyst and revenue forecaster for Iowa’s Revenue Estimating Conference.

Iowa Republicans appear to be budgeting on pure hope. And that’s probably the only tool they have. That hope appears to be misplaced.

State government is piecing together a budget, but it’s like flying a plane with one engine gone. This piece is an effort to estimate how far they can fly the plane before it crashes.

The three-member Revenue Estimating Conference (REC) left the estimates largely unchanged at its December 11 meeting, with an additional $23 million for the current fiscal year and an extra $105 million for the budget they’ll appropriate next session.

Normally, that would be pretty good news. The state government historically worked on the premise that future expected appropriations could be funded with future expected revenues. Even when the income tax cutting regime got its foothold in the mid-1990s, both the legislative and executive branches used five-year forecasts of revenues and expenditures to make sure the long-term forecast was at least theoretically reasonable. There’s nothing inherently wrong with using reserves to fund tax cuts in the short run, if it’s reasonable to believe future revenue increases are sufficient to fund them.

I sincerely doubt the state government uses this approach anymore. Because they have committed fiscal malpractice the likes of which I have never seen in Iowa.

Wendy Larson will be the newest Republican in the Iowa House, after winning the December 9 special election in House district 7 by a margin of 2,817 votes to 1,201 for Democratic candidate Rachel Burns (70.0 percent to 29.9 percent). Larson’s victory brings the GOP majority in the chamber back to 67-33. Her predecessor, State Representative Mike Sexton, stepped down in September to take a senior position with the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The special election outcome was almost a foregone conclusion in one of the state’s reddest legislative districts. House district 7, covering Sac, Pocahontas, and Calhoun counties, plus some rural areas of Webster County, contains more registered Republicans than Democrats and no-party voters combined. Donald Trump received nearly 75 percent of the vote here in 2024, well above the 55.7 percent he received statewide in Iowa.

Still, I was closely watching the race to see what the results might tell us about voter enthusiasm and changing preferences going into the 2026 midterms.

It’s hard to draw any broad conclusions from this election, but I have a few takeaways.

Sarah Watson had the scoop for the Quad-City Times: U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks no longer officially lives in Scott County, or anywhere in Iowa’s first Congressional district. In July 2025, she changed her voter registration back to the Ottumwa home she shares with her husband.

Aspiring candidates and campaign strategists could learn a lot from how Miller-Meeks has handled questions surrounding her residency over the past four years. It’s hard to believe an experienced politician could botch this issue so badly.

Wayne Ford is the executive director of Wayne Ford Equity Impact Institute and co-Director of the Brown and Black Forums of America. He is a former member of the Iowa legislature and the founder and former executive director of Urban Dreams.

INTRODUCTION: A STATE IN TRANSITION

For nearly half a century, Iowans have approached our future with optimism, hard work, and a deep commitment to community. But as we enter the next 25 years—from 2026 through 2050—the forces shaping Iowa are fundamentally different from anything in our past. These forces are structural, interconnected, and accelerating. They affect every sector of our society: our schools, our health care systems, our farmland, our water, our workforce, our economy, and the very makeup of our communities.

For decades, states like Iowa have relied on annual budgeting to shape priorities. But a one-year budget cannot capture pressures that unfold over decades. Nor can it measure the true economic cost of challenges such as rural hospital closures, workforce shortages, mental health crises, water contamination, demographic decline, artificial intelligence, or the shifting global market for agriculture.

To prepare for the next generation, Iowa must adopt a broader lens—one that helps leaders understand where the state is headed, not only where the budget is today.

Matt Russell is a farmer, political writer, and progressive ag and rural leader. He has published work in the New York Times, TIME, AgInsider, Civil Eats, and many state and local publications. He co-owns Coyote Run Farm with his husband Patrick Standley in rural Lacona, Iowa. A version of this essay first appeared on his Substack newsletter, Growing New Leaders: Perspectives from Coyote Run Farm.

Iowans will have some outstanding Democratic candidates to vote for in 2026. A Democratic candidate for secretary of agriculture is not yet among them, but could be soon.

Chris Jones has announced an exploratory committee and plans to decide whether to run in January. You can read Laura Belin’s interview with him here. Jones, who has a PhD in analytical chemistry, is a longtime advocate for cleaner water. He’s a sharp critic of how the agriculture industry has contributed to the pollution but avoided taking enough (if any) responsibility for dirty water.

Until election day 2024, I had planned to run for Iowa secretary of agriculture in 2026. My plan was to stay in my appointment at USDA with the Biden-Harris Administration until this fall. I’d hoped Christina Bohannan would win in Iowa’s first Congressional district, and as only one or two Democratic members of the Iowa delegation, I’d work with her to identify a great candidate to offer to the Harris-Walz Administration to be the next State Executive Director of the Iowa Farm Service Agency.

“Good job you did! Great job,” President Donald Trump says to U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks in a 30-second commercial that has reached thousands of Iowans on the radio or social media platforms over the past month.

The three-term Republican did not place the ads through her campaign committee, which had accumulated more than $2.6 million cash on hand as of September 30.

Instead, Miller-Meeks—considered one of the country’s most vulnerable House Republicans—has used taxpayer funds to share Trump’s praise with Iowans.

Bleeding Heartland’s review of data from Facebook’s ad library and Federal Communications Commission files suggest that Miller-Meeks’ Congressional office has spent at least $10,000 to run this spot. (Several other taxpayer-funded radio ads have also been in rotation this fall.)

If the 2024 campaign is any indication, Miller-Meeks may spend much more from her Congressional office budget in the coming months, as she seeks to shore up her appeal with conservatives before another competitive primary election in Iowa’s first district.

Carl Olsen is the founder of Iowans for Medical Marijuana.

The Iowaska Church of Healing is seeking a federal exemption for the religious use of ayahuasca, a hallucinogen in Schedule 1 of the Controlled Substances Act. Several other churches have received exemptions for ayahuasca, so it seems like the process should be straightforward, and that’s what the church argued in the U.S. Court of Appeals on November 14, 2025, after a six-year delay in processing their application.

The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) created a Guidance Document for the Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA) in 2009 which is at the heart of this case argued before the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on November 14, 2025. In re: Iowaska Church of Healing, No. 25-1140. The Guidance Document explains how to apply for a religious exception to the Controlled Substances Act (CSA) of 1970 using the regulatory authority in the CSA.

Prior to the decision in Gonzales v. O Centro Espírita Beneficente União do Vegetal, 546 U.S. 418 (2006), the DEA had claimed it lacked the regulatory authority in the CSA to make religious exceptions. The Guidance Document does not include an apology for that error, but it does finally settle the issue of whether the DEA has the authority to make religious exceptions. It does, and it always did.

Chuck Isenhart is an investigative reporter, photographer, and recovering Iowa state legislator offering research, analysis, education, and public affairs advocacy at his Substack newsletter Iowa Public Policy Dude, where this essay first appeared.

Thanksgiving is one day in the year that no one in the United States should go hungry. Ya think? If you don’t agree with that, you probably are not reading this post.

While Iowa’s Governor Kim Reynolds pardoned Tailfeathers and Wing-ding the turkeys this week, it’s worth noting that she and others in the majority party who consent to her schemes don’t mind depriving people of food access other times of year.

No, I am not related to Debbie Downer, who spoiled Thanksgiving dinner. However, now that I have gathered some evidence, this holiday seems an appropriate time to point out that the governor’s Healthy Kids Iowa summer food “pilot” program for school children did exactly that—deprived kids of food.

A little-known conservative group based in Virginia spent heavily in October to run a 30-second positive ad about Attorney General Brenna Bird on television and streaming services across Iowa.

The Fund for Economic Independence later claimed their commercial “sharply” improved Bird’s image with “targeted persuadable voters,” moving her from a 7-point deficit to a tie in a ballot test against Democratic challenger Nate Willems.

While it’s impossible to confirm whether that commercial measurably helped Bird with swing voters, one thing is clear: more than a year before the 2026 midterm election, the attorney general’s polling numbers were bad enough to inspire a well-funded outside rescue mission.

The bill President Donald Trump signed on November 12 to end the longest federal government shutdown includes $16 million for designated projects in Iowa, according to Bleeding Heartland’s analysis of a Senate Appropriations Committee report. U.S. Senators Joni Ernst and Chuck Grassley were among 60 senators who approved the funding bill on November 10. All four U.S. House Republicans from Iowa—Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01), Ashley Hinson (IA-02), Zach Nunn (IA-03), and Randy Feenstra (IA-04)—were among the 22 representatives who voted for the bill two days later.

The bill funds most federal government operations through January 30, 2026. A few agencies and programs, including the U.S. Department of Agriculture, are funded through the end of the federal fiscal year on September 30, 2026.

Miller-Meeks, Hinson, and Nunn had all requested “community project funding” through various USDA programs. The final bill included eleven of those earmarked projects: five in Hinson’s district, and three each sought by Miller-Meeks and Nunn.

The 36 counties in IA-04 will receive none of the earmarked funding, because for the fifth straight year, Feenstra declined to submit any requests for community projects. Ernst and Grassley have not participated in the earmarks process in recent years either. Abstaining from the process does not save any taxpayer dollars; it only ensures that the federal funds allocated for Congressionally-directed spending flow to other members’ districts.

These are the first earmarks Iowa will receive from a government funding bill since 2024. Miller-Meeks, Hinson, and Nunn submitted a combined $115 million in community project requests for fiscal year 2025, but the appropriations bill Congress approved in March of this year—with Iowa’s whole delegation voting in favor—included no money for any earmarked projects.

Miller-Meeks, Hinson, and Nunn each submitted fifteen community project funding requests (the maximum allowed for each U.S. House member) for the current fiscal year. Most of them were repeated from last year. The fate of the other projects—which include improvements to roads, flood mitigation, higher education, and airports—won’t be known until Congress approves and Trump signs final appropriations bills for fiscal year 2026.

Jeff Morrison is a member of the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative and the publisher of the Between Two Rivers newsletter, where this article first appeared. Find more of his work at betweentworivers.substack.com and iowahighwayends.net.

Forty-three Iowa school districts held bond referendums on November 4. According to unofficial results from the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office, eighteen passed, fifteen had a majority in favor but not the required 60 percent supermajority, and ten failed to reach 50 percent. The middle category has five districts of all sizes—Cedar Rapids, Easton Valley, Hinton, Independence, and Sergeant Bluff-Luton—receiving more than 58 percent but less than 60 percent support.

The 43 districts voted on a combined $1,435,950,000 in general obligation bonds. (That includes Atlantic’s $22.5 million bond for school construction, which passed, but not its $18.5 million sales tax revenue bond for a multipurpose facility, which failed.)

“I think it really speaks to the changing of the times,” Jill Shudak told me on November 6, two days after she became the first woman elected mayor of southwest Iowa’s largest city. Council Bluffs is “moving forward, and they’re ready for a forward thinker.”

Amid many Democratic victories from coast to coast in the November 2025 election, Shudak’s accomplishment stayed mostly below the radar. But she beat the odds in two ways. As a first-term city council member, she defeated a well-known, long-serving incumbent. Council Bluffs voters had elected Matt Walsh mayor three times; he had previously served on the city council since 1996.

It’s also notable that a Democrat won a mayoral race in a city that has trended red. (While local elections are nonpartisan in Iowa, area Democrats and labor activists were supporting Shudak, and Walsh is a Republican.) Bleeding Heartland’s analysis of results from the 2024 general election show voters across the 22 Council Bluffs precincts preferred Donald Trump for president by a margin of 53.6 percent to 44.7 percent for Kamala Harris, and preferred Republican Randy Feenstra to Democratic challenger Ryan Melton in the Congressional race by 55.3 percent to 44.1 percent.

Unofficial results from the 2025 election show Shudak received 3,641 votes (43.9 percent) to 3,524 votes (42.5 percent) for Walsh. City council member Chris Peterson likely received most of the 1,130 write-in votes (13.6 percent) in the mayoral race.

Shudak made time to talk about her campaign despite a “whirlwind” of activity since the election, including conversations with the city’s department heads and a round table discussion about property taxes with Governor Kim Reynolds. Here’s the full video from our interview.

Dan Guild is a lawyer and project manager who lives in New Hampshire. In addition to writing for Bleeding Heartland, he has written for CNN and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, most recently here. He also contributed to the Washington Post’s 2020 primary simulations. Follow him on Twitter @dcg1114.

This is a quick post about two things to watch for in today’s elections for governor in New Jersey and Virginia.

At long last, U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra confirmed on October 28 that he’s running for governor.

For all of his talk about “taking Iowa to new heights”—and boy, was there a lot of it—the Republican front-runner’s rollout won’t get high marks.

Carl Olsen is the founder of Iowans for Medical Marijuana.

“The medicinal properties of the cannabis plant have been known for millennia.” Lambert Initiative for Cannabinoid Therapeutics, History of cannabis, The University of Sydney.

Iowa classified cannabis as a habit-forming drug with accepted medical use in 1921. 1921 Acts ch. 282.

In 1967, the United States entered into an international agreement classifying cannabis as having no medical use. Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs, May 25, 1967, 18 U.S.T. 1407, 520 U.N.T.S. 151.  The Single Convention allows exceptions. From Article 36(2): “Subject to the constitutional limitations of a Party, its legal system and domestic law, …”

Ed Tibbetts, a longtime reporter and editor in the Quad-Cities, is the publisher of the Along the Mississippi newsletter, where this article first appeared. Find more of his work at edtibbetts.substack.com.

If I were in charge of the state budget and had just watched $825 million unexpectedly disappear, I suppose I’d try to bluff my way out of this mess, too.

Which is what the Reynolds administration looked like it was doing earlier this month, when the state’s Revenue Estimating Conference (REC) said the 2025 fiscal year ended with $300 million less than they’d expected a year ago.

For the current fiscal year, 2026, they’re now anticipating a whopping $525 million less than predicted last October.

I touched on this trend in my last post about Iowa’s long-suffering economy, but after I published, the news from the REC got so much worse.

No wonder the ruling party was putting on a brave face and trying to convince Iowans this was all part of the plan. But they’re not very good poker players. Their tells were all over the place.

Randy Evans is executive director of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that promotes openness and transparency in Iowa’s state and local governments. He can be reached at DMRevans2810@gmail.com. This essay first appeared on his Substack newsletter, Stray Thoughts. 

The nation’s founders got right to the point when they laid out how to treat the First Amendment freedoms of religion, speech, the press and the rights of people to assemble and to petition the government. They used only 45 words, without asterisks.

Their simple words should lead to simple conclusions. Yet, recent Iowa cases illustrate why people in general, and educators specifically, are perplexed about what is protected and what is not.

Some legal background:

Pam Mackey Taylor is the Director of the Iowa Chapter of the Sierra Club.

Every three years, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (DNR) conducts a Triennial Review of its water quality standards. Part of the review is a determination of what changes need to be made to Iowa’s existing water quality standards.

The agenda for the Triennial Review was simple. The DNR intends to focus on the following topic areas related to water quality standards:

• Tribal reserved rights
• Antidegradation
• Human health criteria
• Chapter 61/Surface Water Classification document cleanup
• Use attainability analysis
• PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, sometimes called “forever chemicals”)
• Lake nutrients

After digging into these topics during the review meeting, what jumped out was the lack of investment the State of Iowa and the DNR have made in water quality and improved water quality standards over the last two decades. 

A new Iowa poll is testing messages about a $4,000 tax credit to help families cover “approved education expenses,” and suggests that approach may save taxpayer money currently spent on children enrolled in public schools.

It’s not clear who commissioned the text survey, which has been in the field in recent days. The questionnaire points to Randy Feenstra’s campaign for governor, which is technically still in the “exploratory” phase, or some entity planning to support Feenstra for governor. Many of the questions use preferred Republican frames (“education freedom,” parental choice, “limiting government overreach”). The poll asks how important it is for Iowa’s next governor to “work to improve K-12 education,” and tests only one potential match-up: Randy Feenstra vs. Rob Sand. (Last month, Bleeding Heartland covered a different poll testing messages about Feenstra and Sand.)

Homeschoolers are an important Republican constituency, especially among social conservatives. Families who send their kids to private schools—almost all of which are Christian or Catholic—would also welcome an education tax credit, in addition to the taxpayer assistance they already receive through Iowa’s school voucher program (“education savings accounts”).

Feenstra has good reason to search for ways to shore up his support with the “education freedom” crowd. His underwhelming victory over a little-known 2024 primary challenger highlighted troubles on his right flank. He is unpopular among property rights activists who oppose the use of eminent domain to build Summit Carbon Solutions’ proposed CO2 pipeline. He has skipped forums involving other Republican candidates for governor, including an Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition event in July. Feenstra’s exploratory committee has the resources to pay for opinion research.

A recent poll of “likely Republican voters,” conducted by American Viewpoint, found Feenstra “in a commanding position,” with 41 percent support in the governor’s race and no other GOP candidate above 5 percent. A cautionary note: American Viewpoint’s polls for Feenstra’s U.S. House campaign found the incumbent with a roughly 50-point lead over challenger Kevin Virgil before the 2024 GOP primary. Feenstra ended up winning the nomination in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district by a margin of 60.1 percent to 39.4 percent.

A pair of recent polls have tried to gauge how the arrest of then Des Moines Superintendent Ian Roberts could affect Iowa’s U.S. Senate race.

One text survey, which was in the field this past week, seeks to determine how much respondents have heard about the incident, who “bears the most responsibility” for the situation, and whether the Roberts controversy gives respondents concerns about Des Moines School Board President Jackie Norris, who is one of the Democrats running for Senate. A different version of the survey tests another negative message about Norris’ past political work and support for “radical DEI policies” on the school board.

Staff for Norris did not respond to inquiries about the survey, but the question wording (enclosed in full below) strongly suggests the Norris campaign commissioned it. Notably, the poll tests U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson (the Republican front-runner) against Norris twice, and Hinson against State Representative Josh Turek once, but does not ask respondents about their preference between Hinson and either State Senator Zach Wahls or Iraq War veteran Nathan Sage. It also tests messages about Norris, but not about any other Democratic candidate.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, the main campaign arm of U.S. Senate Republicans, commissioned a separate poll of 579 “Democratic primary voters via text-to-web surveys” on September 29 and 30, a few days after Roberts’ arrest. The NRSC has not released full results from that poll, the questionnaire, or the screen used to identify “Democratic primary voters.” Jennie Taer published a few findings in an article on the conservative website The Daily Wire.

“The system is broken,” declared Libertarian Thomas Laehn as he kicked off his U.S. Senate campaign on October 11.

The Greene County attorney, who became the first Libertarian elected to a partisan office in Iowa in 2018, styled his case against two-party governance as a two-count “indictment” of the 535 members of Congress.

One of his central arguments could appeal to many disaffected Republicans.

John Gilbert farms with a brother, a son, and their wives along South Fork, a tributary of the Iowa River. In addition to non-GMO row crops, they raise small grains, forages, cattle, and antibiotic free pigs they sell to Niman Ranch. John is a volunteer with the Southfork Watershed Alliance, and is active in Practical Farmers of Iowa and the Iowa Farmers Union. Their farm has been recognized for its work toward sustainability. 

EDITOR’S NOTE: John Gilbert wrote the following essay, which was first published by the Des Moines Register, before the two-year anniversary of the 2018 Farm Bill’s expiration (September 30). Four members of Iowa’s Congressional delegation (Senators Chuck Grasssley and Joni Ernst, and Representatives Randy Feenstra and Zach Nunn) serve on the Senate or House Agriculture Committees, which are responsible for writing the Farm Bill.

It’s also important to note that this week, the Trump administration is expected to announce bailout payments for soybean farmers—reportedly of about $100 an acre—to offset damages caused by this administration’s erratic tariffs, and trade disruptions. The need for such a payment underscores the weakness of a farm policy based on unrestricted production.

It’s officially time Iowa has one of those warnings, like what you see on cigarette packages: “Caution: Living in Iowa is Hazardous to Your Health!”

The problem isn’t just that Iowa’s water carries way too many farm field pollutants (we’re all tired of hearing about nitrates), although that’s part of it. It’s not just that Iowa has way too many people dealing with cancer; or just that jobs in agriculture, meat packing, construction and manufacturing can be dangerous; or just the dangers of health care deserts in many areas of Iowa. And it’s not just that climate change is making Iowa’s weather more dangerous. The problem is all of those things, and more. 

Al Charlson is a North Central Iowa farm kid, lifelong Iowan, and retired bank trust officer. This column was first published in the Waverly Newspapers.

We recently received the 2025-26 real estate tax statement for our farmland in my “home county.” The 11 percent increase must have felt like a punch to a lot of our neighbors back home at this time of corn and soybean prices below the cost of production. It hits particularly hard for younger farmers struggling to provide for their families, make farm payments, and maintain their machinery.

As a note to my non-farm friends and neighbors, the assessment of Iowa farmland for real estate taxes is entirely different than it is for our homes. Home assessments are based on recent sale prices of comparable homes. Since 1977 Iowa farmland has been assessed based on soil productivity (estimated value of crops produced minus production costs).

That makes a big difference. Based on the Bremer County Assessor’s valuation, our Waverly home is worth about 1.4 times the estimated fair market value of our “home county” farmland. The non-city portion of 2025-26 taxes on our Waverly home are about 4.4 times the taxes on our farmland. In my opinion this accommodation for agriculture, the base of Iowa’s economy, is reasonable and justified.

Chuck Isenhart is an investigative reporter, photographer and recovering Iowa state legislator offering research, analysis, education and public affairs advocacy at his Substack newsletter Iowa Public Policy Geek, where this essay first appeared.

In 2014, Raki Giannakouros and Blue Sky Solar put six solar panels on the roof of my house. I have not paid for an electron since. The installation has paid for itself multiple times. Even with Alliant Energy’s recent 19 percent daily “customer charge” increase, my monthly bill is still less than a Thomas Jefferson.

When natural gas prices doubled for everybody in the months after the Texas freeze, I was able to use an electric space heater on many winter nights to avoid the worst of the gas price surge. All made possible by a net-metering policy in Iowa that allows me to generate power the utility can sell to others in the summer (avoiding costs for the utility) that I can reclaim in the winter (when electricity demand is down).

A poll in the field this week previews attack lines Republicans may use next year against State Auditor Rob Sand, the likely Democratic nominee for governor.

Some Iowans have received this survey over the phone, and others over text. The questions enclosed below are taken verbatim from a respondent’s screenshots. A different respondent who took the poll by phone confirmed the question wording.

A quick reminder: although you may feel angry when you hear biased or misleading claims about Democratic candidates, it’s better not to hang up or click away. Take screenshots or detailed notes, or record the phone call, and share the questionnaire with me. (I won’t publish your name.)

It’s been a wildly successful week for U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson.

Three days after U.S. Senator Joni Ernst confirmed she won’t seek re-election, the three-term member of Congress all but wrapped up the Republican nomination for Iowa’s Senate seat. President Donald Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement” shut the door on any realistic chance Hinson could lose the June 2026 primary.

But Hinson’s embrace of the Washington establishment could alienate a segment of Republicans she will need after the primary. And her slavish allegiance to Trump could become a liability for the likely nominee in the general election campaign.

In the end, it wasn’t even close.

Democrat Catelin Drey defeated Republican Christopher Prosch by 4,208 votes to 3,411 (55.2 percent to 44.7 percent) in Iowa Senate district 1, covering much of Sioux City and some rural areas in Woodbury County. Donald Trump carried this district by 11 points in the 2024 presidential election, winning more votes than Kamala Harris in fifteen of the 22 precincts. Yet Drey carried nineteen of the 22 precincts and improved on Harris’ vote share in every precinct.

It was the second Iowa Senate seat Democrats flipped in 2025, and the fourth straight special election in Iowa where the Democratic nominee overperformed by more than 20 points, compared to the November 2024 presidential results. Drey’s win also means Republicans will no longer have a two-thirds supermajority in the Iowa Senate when the legislature convenes in January.

While not every tactic from a special election campaign translates into a higher-turnout midterm environment, Democrats can learn a lot from what Drey and her team did right as they prepare for 2026 races for down-ballot offices. In addition, these lessons could help many progressives running in Iowa’s nonpartisan city and school board elections this November.

Senator-elect Drey and Iowa Senate Minority Leader Janice Weiner joined Iowa Starting Line’s Zachary Oren Smith and me on August 27 to discuss how they overcame the odds. You can watch our whole conversation here.

I also sought insight from Julie Stauch, who has worked on many Democratic campaigns and helped guide a successful 2023 special election campaign for Warren County auditor.

Promising to fight for public schools, workers’ rights, safe drinking water, and quality health care, former Democratic State Senator Nate Boulton announced on August 29 that he will run for the Iowa House in 2026. The previous day, longtime Democratic State Representative Rick Olson confirmed he won’t seek another term in Iowa House district 39.

That seat covers part of the east side of Des Moines and Pleasant Hill in eastern Polk County, making up half the Senate district Boulton represented through 2024. Like many similar working-class areas, it was a Democratic stronghold for decades and has shifted toward Republicans during the Trump era.

Boulton, an employment lawyer for many workers and labor unions, served two terms in the Iowa Senate. He initially represented a safe seat for Democrats. Despite sexual harassment allegations that ended his 2018 campaign for governor, he did not face a Democratic primary challenger or a Republican opponent in 2020.

After redistricting removed some heavily Democratic neighborhoods from his territory and added GOP-leaning precincts in eastern Polk County, Boulton lost his 2024 re-election bid by less than 0.2 percent (44 votes out of more than 31,000 ballots cast). Republicans spent more than $750,000 on that Iowa Senate race, and Democrats spent about $500,000.

But Boulton significantly outperformed the Democratic baseline in his Senate district as a whole, and in the precincts where he will run for the state House next year. Bleeding Heartland’s analysis of the 2024 precinct-level results from House district 39, which can be viewed here, show Donald Trump edged out Kamala Harris in the area (49.6 percent to 48.9 percent). In contrast, Boulton received more of the votes cast for state Senate (51.4 percent to 48.3 percent for Republican Mike Pike). He received a higher vote share than Harris in all twelve precincts and more raw votes than his party’s presidential nominee in eight of them.

UPDATE: Drey won the election by 4,208 votes to 3,411 (55.2 percent to 44.7 percent), according to unofficial results. A forthcoming post will analyze the precinct level results. Original post follows.

The stakes are unusually high for the August 26 special election in Iowa Senate district 1. If Republican Christopher Prosch wins the race to succeed former State Senator Rocky De Witt, who died of cancer in June, the GOP will hold 34 of the 50 Iowa Senate seats for next year’s legislative session. That would give Republicans the two-thirds majority they need to confirm Governor Kim Reynolds’ nominees with no Democratic support.

If Democrat Catelin Drey flips the seat, the Republican majority in the chamber will shrink to 33-17, allowing Senate Democrats to block some of the governor’s worst appointees.

Equally important, a win in red-trending Woodbury County could help Democrats recruit more challengers for the 2026 legislative races, and could inspire more progressives to run in this November’s nonpartisan elections for city offices and school boards.

Although Donald Trump comfortably carried Senate district 1 in the 2024 presidential election, Democrats have grounds to be optimistic going into Tuesday’s election.

U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley dodged a journalist’s question this week about his plans for the 2028 campaign.

During the latest edition of Grassley’s “Capitol Hill Report,” released on August 20, Marion County Express publisher Steve Woodhouse asked whether the senator planned to seek re-election again. Grassley replied, “This is the summer of my third year. So you need to ask that question in about two years.”

Grassley will turn 92 years old next month and would be 95 when his current term ends. I doubt he will seek another six-year term in 2028; his campaign’s fundraising totals (less than $100,000 per quarter since 2022) are much lower than what one would expect from a senator planning another re-election bid. But it’s notable that he is not ready to rule out the prospect.

“A lot of you all know who I am because I experienced the worst day of my life on national TV,” former Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn told around 350 Democrats in Clear Lake on August 14.

The keynote speaker typically rallies the crowd at the Iowa Democratic Wing Ding, an annual fundraiser for county party organizations across northern Iowa. Dunn held the room’s attention for more than 30 minutes, drawing plenty of applause—as well as laughs with zingers about President Donald Trump, U.S. Senators Joni Ernst and Chuck Grassley, and Republicans in general.

But Dunn warned his audience early on, “I’m not here to give some rah rah speech.” He delivered some of his most powerful lines in a subdued voice.

By speaking candidly about his own struggles and doubts, Dunn offered a path forward—not only for Democrats who are ready to fight back, but for those still trying to pick themselves up off the floor.

Randy Richardson is a former educator and retired associate executive director of the Iowa State Education Association. Bruce Lear taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring.

Every few years politicians recycle bad ideas that would make teaching even harder. Often, those ideas are long on rhetoric and short on common sense.

Historically, these stale ideas originate from an appointed task force, so politicians don’t have their fingerprints on the ideas if they backfire with the public. 

It’s happening again.

Governor Kim Reynolds’s DOGE Task Force met on August 6 and released a set of 45 recommendations that supposedly would make Iowa’s government more efficient. One of the proposals would establish “merit pay” for teachers.

Matthew P. Thornburg is an associate professor at Misericordia University who studies elections. His mother’s side of the family hails from Greene and O’Brien counties, and he maintains close ties to Iowa and its politics.

The use of eminent domain to build carbon capture pipelines is a uniquely controversial issue in Iowa politics. Unlike most issues in the state, which fit neatly into the red vs. blue paradigm of modern U.S. politics, CO₂ pipelines put Iowa’s Republican establishment on the wrong side of most voters in the state and divide the Republican Party base. The issue remains salient in Des Moines as potentially competitive primary and general election contests loom for governor of Iowa in 2026.

Among recent developments in the governor’s race, U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra (IA-04) has reportedly raised millions of dollars for his bid for the nomination, and has rolled out a slew of endorsements from other Iowa GOP elected officials. Feenstra is no stranger to the pipeline issue. The Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline most heavily affects his district in northern and western Iowa. His 2024 opponents all emphasized the issue: Kevin Virgil in the Republican primary and Democrat Ryan Melton and Libertarian Charles Aldrich in the general election.

Feenstra’s perceived indifference on the CO₂ pipeline offers an opening for rivals in the upcoming Republican primary for governor.

When the Iowa House and Senate approve a bill unanimously, you might assume it was easy to get the measure to the governor’s desk. But appearances can be deceiving. Sometimes, a unanimous vote for final passage obscures years of hard work to pull a bill over the finish line.

So it was with House File 472, which took effect on July 1. The law will make it easier for Iowans to defend themselves when facing meritless lawsuits filed in order to chill speech. Such cases are often called “strategic lawsuits against public participation,” because the plaintiffs have no realistic chance to win in court. Rather, they are suing as a means to silence or retaliate against critics.

Iowa was the 38th state to adopt an “anti-SLAPP” law, according to the Washington, DC-based Institute for Free Speech, which advocates for such legal protections across the country.

If not for one state senator’s determined opposition, Iowa might have joined that club years earlier.

The long-running effort to pass Iowa’s anti-SLAPP bill illustrates how one lawmaker can block a measure that has overwhelming bipartisan support and no meaningful opposition from lobby groups.

Dave Busiek spent 43 years in Iowa radio and TV newsrooms, the last 30 years as news director at KCCI-TV in Des Moines. He writes the Substack newsletter Dave Busiek on Media, where this essay first appeared.

Who’s watching city hall? Nobody—and that should scare you

If it seems like the local news you read and watch doesn’t cover the breadth of issues, and doesn’t cover them as well as they used to, you’re not imagining it.

A study released this month details a shocking decline in the number of journalists covering local news today, compared to 20 years ago.

Politico set off another round of speculation about U.S. Senator Joni Ernst’s future this week. Jordain Carney and Rachael Bade reported on July 10 that Ernst “is the next GOP senator on retirement watch,” with U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson (IA-02) “waiting in the wings” if the incumbent opts not to seek a third term.

Hinson brushed off the rumors, telling WHO Radio host Simon Conway she’s “100 percent on Team Joni” and hopes Ernst will run again. She added, “The DC media loves to obsess over things.” Notably, Hinson didn’t clarify whether she would run for Senate next year if the seat were open—nor did Conway ask her.

I’ve long believed Hinson is laying the groundwork to run for Senate as soon as Iowa has an open seat—presumably in 2028, when Senator Chuck Grassley’s eighth term will end.

So while I still expect Ernst to seek re-election, the latest coverage got me thinking: who would be the tougher opponent for the Democratic nominee in 2026? It’s usually harder to defeat an incumbent than to flip an open seat. But this race might be the exception that proves the rule.

John Deeth has volunteered for the Johnson County Democrats and been involved in caucus planning since 2004. He was the lead organizer for the Johnson County caucuses in 2016 and 2020 and is doing the same work for 2024. Deeth has also worked in the Johnson County Auditor’s Office since 1997.

It’s been two and a half years now since the Democratic National Committee upended the traditional presidential nomination calendar and removed Iowa from its long time place as the first contest. As an advocate for an Iowa presidential primary, I was overjoyed when the sitting Democratic president of the United States wrote, “Our party should no longer allow caucuses as part of our nominating process.”

I had hoped that October 2023 would mark the acceptance stage of the grieving process. That month the Iowa Democratic Party announced a two-stage plan for 2024: an early caucus for party business only, to meet the letter of state law (which does not require a presidential vote at the caucus), and a later, mail-in party run primary to comply with the DNC’s delegate selection calendar. I may or may not have been the first to come up with that plan, but no matter. It was the only way to legally check both of those boxes.

Unfortunately, some of Iowa’s Democratic leaders just don’t know how to say goodbye.

When President Donald Trump gave Senator Chuck Grassley his “complete and total endorsement” during an October 2021 rally at the Iowa State Fairgrounds, he said one undeniably truthful thing about Iowa’s senior senator: “When I’ve needed him for help he was always there. […] He was with us all the way, every time I needed something.”

At the latest Trump rally in Des Moines, Grassley showed once again that the president’s assessment was on the money.

Douglas Burns is a fourth-generation Iowa journalist. He is the co-founder of the Western Iowa Journalism Foundation and a member of the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative, where this article first appeared on The Iowa Mercury newsletter. His family operated the Carroll Times Herald for 93 years in Carroll, Iowa where Burns resides.

It hit me in the heat of the evening.

President Donald Trump models his stage style after none other than Frank Sinatra.

The swagger, the rhythm of the humor, the observations about women. (I heard Trump thank a female voter once at another event. He called her “doll.”)

A Trump speech like the one in Des Moines on July 3 takes cues from the famous Sinatra album/CD “Sinatra At the Sands,” in which the crooner ad libs in a swinging way, baby, between songs.

The Sinatra influence on Trump is uncanny — similar to what you see with Bill Maher’s opening monologues on “Real Time,” clearly inspired by Johnny Carson.

Trump came to Iowa to kick off the America 250 celebration: a slate of events scheduled for nation’s 250th anniversary in 2026.

The president addressed thousands at the sun-swept, scorched Iowa State Fairgrounds.

Here are ten takeaways from the event, which Iowa Mercury covered in person.

The last time Donald Trump was president, Iowa Democrats had a pretty good midterm election. The party’s candidates defeated two Republican members of Congress, came surprisingly close to beating U.S. Representative Steve King, had a net gain of five Iowa House seats (and almost a sixth), and came within 3 points of winning the governor’s race.

Many Democrats like their chances of improving on that tally in 2026.

But before they get too excited, they need to understand the terrain is now much more favorable to Iowa Republicans than it was during the 2018 election cycle.

A huge GOP voter registration advantage, combined with consistently higher turnout for Republicans in midterm years, make it hard to construct a winning scenario for Democrats in Iowa’s 2026 statewide elections.

To overcome those long odds, Democrats will need not only strong GOTV and good messaging, but also a better voter registration effort over the coming year than the party has seen in decades.