Iowa caucus results: Good news and bad news for the Iowa GOP

Now that we’ve had a couple of days to digest the Iowa caucus results, I want to invite Bleeding Heartland readers to discuss how the outcome affected the Republican Party of Iowa. My thoughts are below; please share your take in the comments.  

Good news for the Iowa GOP

By proving there’s more than one way to win Iowa, the results give both “moderates” and conservatives a reason to compete here in the future. Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney tied, showing you can win by racking up pluralities in dozens of smaller counties, or by taking most of the urban and suburban counties. Ron Paul almost pulled off the win with his unusual coalition, including younger and crossover voters. He did quite well in counties containing colleges or universities.

In that sense, Iowa Republicans are fortunate the social conservative faction remained split among several candidates. If one candidate had consolidated this bloc early and defeated Romney convincingly, that would inspire future “moderates” to skip Iowa. I put “moderates” in quotation marks because Romney only appears to be moderate compared to some of the others who made a play here. There is no political space in Iowa for a real moderate Republican, like Jon Huntsman.

The exciting finish boosted national interest in the caucuses, which may help the party keep Iowa first in line in the future. For most of 2011, the caucus campaign was a dud, but the national media got the competitive horse race they wanted at the end.

Santorum’s rapid rise and Paul’s relatively strong finish validated organizing as a strategy for winning Iowa. It would have been terrible for the Iowa GOP if Herman Cain or Newt Gingrich had peaked at exactly the right time. They had no campaign infrastructure here, which Paul had been building for years, and they hadn’t put in the time like Santorum, with his 99-county tour. If Romney had won Iowa comfortably, future candidates would be more tempted to blow off Iowa until the final month before the caucuses.  

The results also give future GOP presidential candidates a reason to lend a hand with Iowa Republican crusades. There’s no question that Santorum and Gingrich boosted their support by helping the 2010 campaign against retaining three Iowa Supreme Court justices. The anti-retention campaign probably helped Republicans win a few Iowa House and Senate races Democrats might otherwise have held.

Bad news for the Iowa GOP

The Ames straw poll as we know it is probably dead. Investing in the straw poll killed Tim Pawlenty’s campaign, and winning that day didn’t create a strong base for Michele Bachmann to build on. Equally important, blowing off the straw poll didn’t stop Rick Perry or Gingrich from becoming front-runners for a time, and didn’t prevent Romney from winning the caucuses. The Iowa GOP needs to look for another way to raise big money in the future.

Caucus turnout was disappointing. Republicans can say they set a record with about 122,000 caucus-goers statewide, but they should have been able to do better than that with the GOP base’s intense dislike of President Obama, and so many candidates competing here. When you consider that thousands of those GOP caucus-goers were crossovers who may not vote for the party’s eventual nominee, Republican turnout was below the 2008 level. That suggests a lack of enthusiasm for this presidential field. The caucuses did nothing to change my view that Obama is favored to win Iowa again this November.

Having the caucuses so soon after the holiday season probably hurt turnout, but attendance at the 2008 Democratic caucuses (also held right after New Year’s) was nearly double the Republican total for this year.

The margin between Romney and Santorum was too close for comfort. A small tabulation error in Appanoose County or somewhere else could change the outcome. That may hurt Iowa’s prospects for staying first in line. You can hardly blame politics-watchers across the country for concluding that the caucuses are less credible than a primary with more safeguards for counting ballots. It would have been better for the Iowa GOP to have a close race with an undisputed winner (margin of, say, a few hundred votes). That said, I contend that even with a few counting errors, the Republican caucus process reflects voter preferences much more accurately than the Iowa Democratic caucuses. The Bleeding Heartland community has been arguing about the merits of the caucus process in several comment threads this week: see here, here, and here.

The floor is yours. What do you think the Iowa caucuses mean for the Republican Party?

On a related note, Kevin Hall posted his take on the Iowa caucus winners and losers here. I agree that Secretary of State Matt Schultz helped himself by endorsing Santorum, and State Senator Kent Sorenson hurt himself by ditching Bachmann six days before the caucuses.

About the Author(s)

desmoinesdem

  • Kevin Hall's winners and losers

    I’m appalled, but not really surprised, that Mr. Hall listed Ron Paul as a “loser”.  What else would you expect from a GOP official?  In fact Paul got well more than twice the number of votes he received 4 years ago, while Romney managed to get fewer votes than in 2008, despite there being a larger turnout this year.  Surely that must count for something in evaluating winners and losers.

    Today’s Republican Party is more disciplined in reflexively giving the “party line” than any old-line Communist ever was.

    I suspect Paul will be around dogging the Romney campaign for much longer than Santorum, Gingrich, or any of the other GOP candidates, and I’m looking forward to the coming trainwreck for the party.

  • Somewhat surprised to see you

    write this: The caucuses did nothing to change my view that Obama is favored to win Iowa again this November.

    Knowing your long-standing dislike of Obama (I remember the rather heated BH debates of 2007) and having seen some  polls about Obama approval ratings in Iowa and elsewhere, I would love to hear you elaborate on this topic. Not being in Iowa for the past 2.5 years, I obviously can’t keep my finger on the Iowa pulse very well. Reading BH commentary, one could easily conclude that very few Iowa Democratic activists are willing to do anything for the president’s reelection.

    • Ahhhh, but RF

      It’s not that there aren’t Democratic activists in Iowa willing to work for the president’s re-election.  It’s just that – at least from my perspective – it’s hard to post anything in support of his re-election in some forums (including “Bleeding Heartland” I have to admit) without feeling like a charge of “kool-aid drinker” is right around the corner.

      I was a precinct captain for Obama in ’08.  I’m not actively volunteering right now because life circumstances have my time under control in such a way to make that impossible.  But I support the president and want to see him re-elected.  Do I disagree with some of the decisions he’s made?  Yes.  I’m also happy with many of the things his administration has accomplished.  I’m too old to be starry-eyed, and I’m too jaded to be considered naive.  I just happen to think Obama makes a pretty good president and is a damn site better than the alternatives.

      • there are Democratic activists in Iowa

        who will work for Obama’s re-election. But I think the number of volunteers will be more like a “normal” year (say, 2004) rather than the sky-high 2008 level.

    • I think Obama is favored to win Iowa

      Romney hasn’t spent enough time here to build a strong base of support. Obama’s approval has hovered in the mid to upper 40s here but never fell through the floor.

      I think Romney has at least a 50/50 chance of winning the general election, but probably he’d have to do it without Iowa.

  • Good news

    for the IA-GOP: the IA bump has put Romney on top of SC polling.

    This is critical — if Romney wins SC, he can focus on Obama almost immediately.

    Irregularities? But you haven’t counted the votes found in Branstad’s glove compartment yet. Oh, heck, it doesn’t matter.

    2016 first-in-nation is a lock if Romney wins SC. Are you kidding me? Both parties want a caucus as leadoff to shape outcomes. So you can call this good news for IA-GOP and IA Dems: top-of-the-ticket on both sides {{heart}} Iowa.

    Remember: Everybody in Iowa sells out. Poor Kent — he just wasn’t getting any of the good stuff.

    Do not agree that Ron Paul will dog Romney over a long primary season. He has an Achilles Heel: his son.

    I don’t think Romney really worries that much about the socons. He’s going to go after independents and Dems hard. He’ll soften the immigration rhetoric with Rubio or Martinez on the ticket. Another possible VP pick: Bob “for Jobs” McDonnell. Bona fide socon, but in a less obnoxious way. Key state – VA. Term-limited Gov. Proven success in working class areas. Good campaigner.

    Romney will be competitive. Something not mentioned: almost all (if not all) of those pathways to victory for Obama assume that he will win New Hampshire.

    • I noticed that NH was included

      in all but one of Messina’s pathways. I think Romney would be favored to beat Obama in NH. Then again, some of the pathways didn’t include Iowa and/or Nevada, and I think Obama will win both those states.

      It would help Romney greatly to take VA out of play, because he can’t afford to lose either OH or FL. I would assume McDonnell as a running mate would also help Romney in NC.

  • "The anti-retention campaign probably helped Republicans win a few Iowa House and Senate races Democrats might otherwise have held. "

    Not probably.  Did.  In a big way.  Bible thumpers came out of the woodwork.  Especially when combined with depressed Dem turnout. We lost several seats because of it.  It wouldn’t have mattered nearly as much in a Presidential year though.  I agree with you about Obama winning Iowa, but also think his chances are better than 50/50.

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