Election day thread, with latest Iowa absentee numbers

by: desmoinesdem

Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:39:29 AM CST

A lot of my friends went to see President Obama and Bruce Springsteen in the East Village of Des Moines last night. It looked like Paul Ryan drew a big crowd near the airport too. I'm standing by my prediction that Obama will win Iowa, but ARG did release a poll yesterday showing Mitt Romney ahead here by 49 percent to 48 percent.

The latest Iowa absentee ballot totals are after the jump, along with thoughts about how well Romney needs to do today to make up his early voting deficit.

Congressional district	Democrats	Republicans	no-party voters
IA-01	80,331	49,295	54,092
IA-02	92,158	55,899	58,163
IA-03	79,422	60,449	42,845
IA-04	60,830	63,864	43,163
statewide	312,741	229,507	198,263

Absentee ballots received by Iowa county auditors as of November 5, 2012

Congressional district	Democrats	Republicans	no-party voters
IA-01	72,458	46,546	47,554
IA-02	84,079	52,859	51,759
IA-03	69,928	55,945	36,815
IA-04	55,501	60,089	38,722
statewide	281,966	215,439	174,850

As of yesterday, Iowa county auditors had received more than 673,000 completed absentee ballots. That's not the final early voting number, because some mailed ballots will continue to arrive, and they will be counted as long as they were postmarked by November 5. Also, Iowans may hand-deliver completed absentee ballots to their county auditor's office today until polls close at 9 pm.

Democrats lead Republicans by more than 65,000 in returned ballots. I consider it likely that Obama leads among the no-party early vote too, so Romney probably has to make up a deficit of between 70,000 and 90,000 votes among election-day voters.

Since 1,528,715 Iowans voted in the 2008 general election, and 1,497,741 Iowans voted in the 2004 general election, I assume that at most 1.6 million Iowans will cast ballots in this year's election (my best guess would be total turnout closer to the 2008 level).

Former Bush/Cheney campaign staffer Adrian Gray has predicted that Republicans would be able to make up a 60,000 vote deficit on election day in Iowa. He sees Romney on the edge, needing to win today's vote by 7 points, as George W. Bush did in 2004. I don't see how he arrives at that number.

With nearly 700,000 votes already banked, somewhere between 800,000 and 900,000 Iowans will cast ballots today.

If 850,000 Iowans vote today, Romney would need around 55 percent of them to make up the early vote deficit, depending on how much the early no-party vote tilted to Obama.