Latest look at Iowa early vote numbers compared to 2012

Hillary Clinton urged her Iowa supporters to cast early ballots at a Des Moines rally yesterday, a short walk from the Polk County Elections Office. Her campaign needs to bank as many votes before November 8 as possible to counteract the traditional Republican advantage among election-day voters.

Republican strategist David Kochel has portrayed Iowa as a lost cause for Clinton, thanks to the large proportion of white, non-college-educated voters. Some Democratic activists felt demoralized last week after two opinion polls showed Donald Trump ahead by 8 percent and 7 percent. I’ve always expected a close presidential result here and think the next few Iowa polls will indicate a tight race, thanks to Trump’s disastrous performance in Monday’s debate.

But delivering this state for Clinton will require stronger early GOTV than what Iowa Democrats have produced so far, especially among women, who were more likely than men to vote early in the last presidential election.

Iowa Democratic early voting still lags well behind the party’s 2012 numbers. The big question is how much of the shortfall reflects deliberate tactical choices as opposed to a voter enthusiasm problem.

After the jump I’ve enclosed tables showing how many absentee ballots Iowa voters have requested and county auditors have received as of today and September 28, 2012 (the same number of days before the November 6 general election). Democrats have gained some ground since last week but are still more than 56,000 ballot requests (nearly 42 percent) behind the numbers from four years ago. Republicans were ahead of their 2012 early vote numbers last week; they are now slightly behind that pace. No-party voters have requested about 17,000 fewer absentee ballots this year than they had by this point in the last presidential campaign. That’s probably bad news for Democrats, because Barack Obama received more early votes than Mitt Romney did from Iowans affiliated with neither party.

You can view every day’s absentee ballot numbers here. I draw on figures released by the Secretary of State’s office but present the data in a different way.

P.S.- Ruline Steininger, the 103-year-old Des Moines woman who starred in a recent Clinton campaign video, stood with Clinton yesterday before casting her own early ballot. She told reporters, “I’m 103. That’s the reason I voted early. I’m not taking any chances.” Unfortunately, Iowa law would prohibit Steininger’s vote from being counted if (God forbid) she passes away before November 8. Some states, including Virginia and Hawaii, require early votes to be counted in the same circumstance.

Absentee ballots requested by Iowa voters as of September 30, 2016
Congressional district Democrats Republicans no-party voters other total
IA-01 22,208 7,539 9,960 108 39,815
IA-02 21,357 7,814 8,490 96 37,757
IA-03 21,655 9,303 6,946 94 37,998
IA-04 12,915 9,044 6,244 57 28,260
 
statewide 78,135 33,700 31,640 355 143,830

Absentee ballots received by Iowa county auditors as of September 30, 2016
Congressional district Democrats Republicans no-party voters other total
IA-01 2,011 711 611 8 3,341
IA-02 2,545 788 555 17 3,905
IA-03 988 484 243 3 1,718
IA-04 1,096 840 361 4 2,301
 
statewide 6,640 2,823 1,770 32 11,265

Absentee ballots requested by Iowa voters as of September 28, 2012
Congressional district Democrats Republicans no-party voters other total
IA-01 38,573 7,625 15,259 49 61,506
IA-02 38,110 9,056 13,483 37 60,687
IA-03 34,346 11,627 11,063 63 57,099
IA-04 23,560 9,236 8,789 39 41,624
 
statewide 134,589 37,544 48,595 188 220,916

Absentee ballots received by Iowa county auditors as of September 28, 2012
Congressional district Democrats Republicans no-party voters other total
IA-01 3,905 1,215 1,136 8 6,264
IA-02 4,833 1,296 1,223 6 7,358
IA-03 1,932 974 541 6 3,453
IA-04 4,289 1,724 1,211 5 7,229
 
statewide 14,959 5,209 4,111 25 24,304

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