Dan Guild is a lawyer and project manager who lives in New Hampshire. In addition to writing for Bleeding Heartland, he has written for CNN and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, most recently here. He also contributed to the Washington Post’s 2020 primary simulations. Follow him on Twitter @dcg1114.
This is a quick post about two things to watch for in today’s elections for governor in New Jersey and Virginia.
CAN REPUBLICANS EXCEED TRUMP’S APPROVAL RATING?
Historically, presidential approval is strongly correlated with midterm results. I highly recommend John T. Woolley’s excellent article, which shows the relationship. I noted in 2022 that Democrats running for U.S. Senate were able to run well ahead of then President Joe Biden’s job approval—which defied historical trends.
Over the weekend NBC News published a new poll. Respondents were asked who they plan to vote for in the 2026 elections for U.S. House. While the answer was good news for Democrats (they led Republicans by 48 percent to 40 percent on the generic Congressional ballot), there are other polls showing a closer race.
The real shock was how voters responded when asked whether their 2026 vote would signal opposition to President Donald Trump, support for Trump, or neither. 40 percent said their vote was in opposition to the president—which was the highest number NBC had recorded since at least 1996!
The share of respondents who said their 2026 vote was “not a signal either way” about the president was 29 percent, the lowest level NBC had ever found.
Why does this matter? Because it suggests that to an unusual extent, the midterms will be a referendum on Donald Trump.
Which brings us to the two governor’s races happening today.
This table compares Trump approval in New Jersey and Virginia with the trail heats. The most important part of this table is the far right column. It suggests the Republican candidates for governor are just extensions of Trump. Neither Republican nominee (Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey and Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia) is able to get support from anyone who does not support Donald Trump.
If—that’s a big if—that trend holds, it suggests Republicans will be unable to separate themselves from Trump. By extension, if he is unpopular next year, he will take down GOP candidates across the country.
POLLSTER VERSUS POLLSTER
For the poll obsessed, there are other things to note about recent surveys in New Jersey. Two pollsters with very good recent records, AtlasIntel and Emerson, are showing a very close race. Other pollsters have better long-term track records, but have not been as accurate lately as AtlasIntel and Emerson.
There is no way to square polling from AltasIntel with Quinnipiac, Suffolk, and Fox News. Note, by the way, that AtlasIntel and Emerson find higher Trump approval ratings than others in New Jersey.
Top photo: President Donald J. Trump departs the White House via the South Lawn on Thursday, September 11, 2025. Official White House Photo by Harrison Koeppel, available via Flickr.