I wasn’t a big fan of the Obama “Yes We Can” video, but then, I wasn’t exactly the target demographic. (I didn’t recognize anyone in it other than Kareem.)

This parody about the McCain campaign is priceless, though. You have to watch it.

Barack Obama was expected to win today’s primaries in Washington, DC, Maryland and Virginia, but he won them by even larger margins than expected. He now leads Clinton in the pledged delegate count, and may even be leading if you include Michigan and Florida.

I agree with DrinksGreenTea that it would be disastrous to have superdelegates decide our nominee at the convention. I also would hate to see our nominee determined by the decision over whether Michigan and Florida delegates are seated. I would like to see a clear winner emerge from the primaries.

That means either Hillary needs to win all of the March 4 primaries convincingly, and win Pennsylvania in April, or Obama needs to take at least one of the following: Texas, Ohio, or Pennsylvania.

If Obama wins a big state, there will be almost no way for Clinton to overtake him, and I don’t think superdelegates will go against the candidate who leads in pledged delegates.

Hillary is paying the price for having no plan for the contests after February 5. Clearly they were counting on putting Obama away on Super Tuesday.

The netroots got very involved in two primaries so far this year. Mark Pera was challenging “Bush dog” Dan Lipinski in Illinois’ 3rd Congressional district. He ran a spirited campaign but lost by double-digits in the February 5 primary.

Donna Edwards came within a few percentage points of beating Al Wynn, one of the worst corporate Democrats in Congress, in Maryland’s 4th district primary two years ago.

This year she was backed not just by bloggers, but also by the SEIU, EMILY’s list, and Democracy for America. She even got the Washington Post’s endorsement.

The final returns aren’t in yet, but the media have already called the MD-04 primary for Edwards. It just goes to show that sometimes, a challenger can beat an entrenched incumbent.

Will the netroots and Democracy for America get behind Ed Fallon now? I hope so, although I must add that Leonard Boswell (disappointing as he can be) is nowhere near as disloyal to progressive causes as Wynn.

John Edwards met with Hillary Clinton late last week, and he was scheduled to meet with Barack Obama today, but the meeting was postponed.

If I were advising Edwards, I honestly don't know what I would tell him. I see the logic of not endorsing, endorsing Obama, or endorsing Clinton.

If he's going to endorse, I would think it would have to come before the big primaries on March 4.

What do you think he will do? Take the poll and explain your choice in the comments, if you like.

One of the many reasons I supported John Edwards was that I thought he would expand the map for Democrats in the general election. I thought he would hold all of the Kerry states, adding Iowa and Ohio with ease, and would make things competitive in several other places too (like Missouri).

I think Clinton or Obama could beat McCain or lose to him. Clinton’s winning scenario is obvious: turn out record numbers of women and Latinos, rack up a big lead among seniors, thereby holding most if not all of the Kerry states and adding Florida and/or Ohio.

Plenty of things could go wrong with Clinton’s scenario, but it is hard to argue that she would not turn out record numbers of women and Latinos.

Obama’s winning electoral vote scenario is less certain for me. Although nationwide polls show him doing slightly better against McCain than Clinton, he runs behind Clinton against McCain in several key states:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008…

And that’s before the right-wing hate machine has even opened fire against Obama. With Clinton, we pretty much know where her floor is, but with Obama, who knows?

That’s why Charlie Cook recently argued that Clinton would probably win between 48 percent and 52 percent of the general election vote, whereas Obama could get 55 percent or more, but could also conceivably get below 45 percent in the general.

Yesterday I asked Obama supporters at MyDD to give me their scenarios for 270 electoral votes against McCain. MyDD user JDF came up with this:

http://www.mydd.com/comments/2…

Here is how I see Obama getting to 270. This is a broad strokes view and I put it together relatively quickly so I am sure it is not perfect, but at least shows (from my POV) that it is not a stretch for Obama to get well past 270.

States he WINS

Wash: 11

Oregon: 7

Cali: 55

New York: 31

DC: 3

Maryland: 10

New Jersey: 15

Mass: 12

RI: 4

CT: 7

NH: 4

VT: 3

ME: 3

Michigan: 17

Illinois: 21

Minnesota: 10

That would give him 213 Electoral Votes.

There are 20 in Ohio, 21 in Pennsylvania, 27 in Florida, 13 in Virginia, 11 in Missouri, 11 in Indiana,  5 in Nevada, 5 in New Mexico, 10 in Wisconsin,  7 in Iowa

Puts 130 other Electoral Votes in play that I think fall anywhere from a strong edge for Obama to a moderate edge to McCain at this point.

Also, and this is a stretch, but I would argue that he can compete in states like South Carolina, Georgia, and Louisiana. Which puts another 32 electoral votes within reach but highly unlikely.

All in all I would give the GE edge to Obama. Also, I don’t think you give people in the south enough credit to be able to look past Obama’s skin color or Obama’s ability to transcend it. The people who “would never vote for a black guy” would never vote for a democrat either.

I think this is plausible (except for the part about SC, GA and LA), and I would throw in Iowa’s 7 votes for Obama against McCain. Also, Maine would probably deliver all 4 of its electoral votes to Obama (they don’t have winner-take-all there). Still, that only brings Obama to 221 electoral votes.

Florida is a write-off, given McCain’s strength among military and Latinos, and Obama’s relative weakness among Latinos and seniors.

Pennsylvania and Ohio could be real problems for Obama against McCain, in my opinion, especially when the media start covering Obama’s voting record on gun control in the Illinois legislature.

What do you think?

UPDATE: This diary by Clinton supporter silver spring is quite interesting:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008…

The MSM is constantly feeding us the theme that Obama would somehow be more “electable” in the general election because he overwhelmingly attracts independent voters, and if Hillary is the nominee, then McCain will get the bulk of the independents.  

There are two things wrong with the above proposition – 1) Even though Obama is attracting more independents, Hillary is not doing bad either; for one thing,  she is attracting more independents than McCain ….  but more importantly – 2) Independents are only one subset of traditional swing voters, the other subsets being Hispanics, white Catholics, white women and suburban voters.  Among the last four subsets above, Hillary is comfortably beating Obama (as well as McCain).

The diary has a lot of good analysis, including this bit, which refers to November 2004 exit poll data:

From the above 2004 numbers it’s interesting to note that Kerry actually beat Bush among independents (as well as Hispanics).  However, Bush comfortably beat Kerry among Catholics, white women and suburban voters.  Thus, it can be logically argued that Catholics, white women, suburban voters and Hispanics are as important as independent voters (if not more so) in order to guarantee Democratic success in November.

Catholics, white women and suburban voters are going to be crucial in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.

A week or so ago I got another fundraising e-mail from Senator Harkin’s campaign.

Don’t take this the wrong way, because I strongly support and admire Harkin, but the $35 I spent on my ticket to the steak fry in September was the last money he’ll see from me for a while.

When you start the election year with $3.4 million in the bank, and your only declared opponent has $58.07 in the bank, I think my political donations will be more helpful to other Democrats.

As I’ve written before, candidates I plan to support this year include Ed Fallon, Windsor Heights Mayor Jerry Sullivan, who’s running for Iowa House district 59, and Heather Ryan, who is trying to unseat the Republican in Kentucky’s first Congressional district.

[Betsy at BlueNC helms the update again this week…]

This week we bring you double the pleasure in our 50 State Blog Roundup. Real life threw me a curve ball last week and I wasn't able to follow through with the roundup. My apologies. You will find last week's roundup tagging along at the end. Without further delay, here's what's going on locally at our state community blogs:

Minnesota
   Tim Walz — first-term congressman and Democratic National Convention superdelegate — endorsed Barack Obama's presidential bid this week.

Iowa
   desmoinesdem discusses the dispute between Iowa's governor and secretary of state (both Democrats) over the best fix for paperless voting machines.

Louisiana
   The Primaries are coming to Louisiana… and Daily Kingfish is torn between the two candidates remaining. Although Daily Kingfish is undecided, Ryan is sick of the all spin being put on the Louisiana internets about how Hillary hasn't released a plan to deal with the Gulf Region. Locally, Governor PBJ's Ethics Plan has some serious holes, and is facing criticism from the Ethics Board themselves!

{much more under the fold!}

My name is Kurt Meyer and I am proudly seeking the Democratic nomination for the Iowan 4th Congressional District. My wife and I are fifth-generation Iowans. My roots are in Mitchell County in north Iowa, where members of my family have lived for 154 years. 

I grew up on a family farm in a union household. My siblings and I graduated from St. Ansgar High School, after which I attended Luther College in Decorah, where I met my wife, Paula.

My life has been dedicated to serving my community. Since 1981, I have worked with and for hospitals and nursing homes, schools and colleges, congregations and human service providers…helping them plan, helping them tell their stories effectively, helping them secure the resources they need to better serve their communities. For 16 of those years, I owned and operated my own company, the Meyer Heykes Nonprofit Partnership, serving nonprofit clients throughout the Upper Midwest.

I have never shied from hard work. A strong work ethic is part of our district's bedrock values and we deserve a congressman who reflects the values and character of our district. Citizens with drive, skill and talent are obligated to roll up their sleeves and pitch in…something encouraged by my family and reinforced by the rural community where I grew up and now reside.

A positive, results-oriented, forward-thinking approach to public service can make a difference. It is not too late to make essential course corrections. Despite our current national trajectory, future generations will not inherit a world with less promise and fewer opportunities than the one inherited by current generations, if I have anything to say about it.

Many issues we face as a country converge as we stop to think about the kind of legacy we want to leave our children. The common goal shared by those in community service and those in public office is to create a better world for future generations. That is why I am running for Congress.  I am committed to changing our current course and improving the lives of people in the 4th Congressional District.

Clearly, there is a great deal at stake. To learn more about how you can be involved in my campaign, visit my website at kurtmeyerforcongress.com. I look forward to earning your support.  

Big wins for Obama today in the Nebraska and Washington caucuses. Early returns in Louisiana also show him winning, not surprisingly.

I will be interested to see if there was more than a negligible vote for Edwards in Louisiana, since he began and ended his campaign there and has done a lot to bring the Katrina aftermath to the media’s attention.

On the Republican side, Huckabee embarrassed McCain (and Senator Sam Brownback, who backed McCain) in Kansas today. Huck seems to have a shot at winning in Washington and Louisiana too. That would be just fine by me. Anything that keeps the “Republicans divided, base can’t stand McCain” as the journalistic narrative has to be good for Democrats.

Governor Chet Culver has agreed to back Secretary of State Mike Mauro’s plan “to use state money to help counties switch to one uniform system with paper ballots,” the Des Moines Register reported on Saturday:

Culver said he has put together a “working group” that includes Mauro, lawmakers and Culver’s staff. They will try to figure out how to get counties equipped with optical scan machines that count paper ballots – as he has long advocated for, he said.

Good for him. As I’ve written before, spending money on equipment that would print receipts for touchscreen voting machines would just throw good money after bad. Better to ensure that every Iowan votes with a paper ballot, which can be recounted if necessary.

Also on Friday, Culver endorsed incumbent Leonard Boswell in the Democratic primary for Iowa’s third Congressional district:

He called Boswell a “dear friend” whose military background is valuable on national security issues, although he said he respects Fallon and supports the idea of competitive political races.

Meanwhile, the Register tries to make news by noting that Culver has refused to rule out running for president someday.

Come on, reporters. He’s barely a year into his first term, and with any luck we’re about to elect a Democrat who will serve as president until 2012 or 2016. Let Culver get a term or two under his belt before you start asking him whether he’ll run for president.

Iowa Environmental Council Executive Director Marian Riggs Gelb: Iowa has a responsibility to help fix the Gulf of Mexico’s “dead zone.”

I encourage you to click the link and read the whole op-ed in Saturday’s Des Moines Register.

Voters will make their choice this weekend in Maine, Louisiana, Washington state, Nebraska and the Virgin Islands.

Jerome Armstrong put up the predictions from an Obama campaign memo at MyDD. I’m sure those are lowball predictions, though.

I don’t have a clue about the percentages, but I think Obama will win all these contests handily. Clinton’s best hope is probably Maine, where the demographics are more favorable to her and her base is less likely to be stuck at work (and unable to caucus) on a weekend.

What do you think?

Bleeding Heartland user Jim Clausen brought this article to my attention: Karl Rove will speak at the U of I’s Memorial Union Main Lounge at 7:30 pm on February 17.

Frank Durham, professor of journalism in the U of I School of Journalism and Mass Communication, will interview Rove. A question-and-answer session will follow the on-stage interview.

[…]

The U of I will pay Rove $40,000, which includes his speaking fee and some expenses, such as air fare, from the F. Wendell Miller Fund, the U of I reported. The University Lecture Committee will pay Rove’s on-the-ground expenses.

Media are allowed to get video, audio and photographs during the first five minutes of Rove’s talk. After that, no recording devices are allowed. Similar restrictions were requested by Bill Clinton and Janet Reno when they spoke at the U of I, officials said.

If you attend, please take good notes and put up a diary afterwards to “document the atrocities,” as Atrios would say.

Didn’t see this one coming. IowaCubs has the story on MyDD:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008…

Some people who are very close to the Culver family were involved with the Clinton campaign in Iowa, and of course Mari Culver endorsed Edwards in December.

Apparently Governor Culver will appear with Obama at a rally in Nebraska tonight.  

Barack Obama’s presidential campaign has raised more than $7.6 million since the Super Tuesday primaries, and Hillary Clinton’s campaign claims to have raised more than $4 million in the past two days.

It’s incredible to see these candidates’ supporters coming out in droves to contribute, and it should bode well for our nominee going into the general election.

At the same time, I urge anyone who has donated to a presidential campaign to set some money aside for worthy candidates seeking other offices.

As I’ve mentioned before, I am supporting Ed Fallon in the Democratic primary for Iowa’s third Congressional district. The incumbent, Leonard Boswell, has a huge money advantage, but as noneed4thneed recently pointed out in this thread, Fallon raised more money from individuals in January than Boswell raised from individuals in the whole fourth quarter of 2007.

If you are so inclined, you can donate to Fallon’s campaign through ActBlue.

Or, if you prefer not to get involved in this primary, I encourage you to seek out and support one of the many fine Democrats challenging incumbent Republicans this year.

For instance, in this diary RDemocrat makes the case for Heather Ryan, a candidate for Congress in KY-01 facing “one of the worst Congressmen in the land, Exxon Ed Whitfield.”

There are many state and local races worth donating to this year as well. In fact, a donation of a few hundred dollars to a statehouse candidate is more likely to make a difference than a donation to a presidential campaign that’s already raised more than $100 million.

I will be writing a check this week to the campaign of Jerry Sullivan, who is running in Iowa House district 59. It’s an open seat that leans slightly Republican, but Sullivan is a great guy with outstanding qualifications and experience in public service as well as the business community. I think he’s got an excellent shot to win my district for the Democrats.

Consider this an open thread to tell us which campaigns you plan to support this year.

cross-posted at MyDD and Daily Kos

I don’t have a dog in this primary anymore. My candidate, John Edwards, is out of the race. I would vote for and do GOTV for either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in the general. I see major drawbacks to both of them as candidates and potential presidents, but I also think either of them have a realistic chance to beat John McCain and run a good administration.

This diary contains some friendly advice for supporters of both candidates going forward.

Join me after the jump for more.

Results will be trickling in all evening, though it may be tomorrow before we know how many delegates each candidate won.

For those who say the popular vote and the state-by-state results are meaningless because “it’s all about delegates,” I disagree. Clinton and Obama may finish within 50 delegates of each other, but psychologically, and in terms of media coverage, it will make a big difference who won the popular vote in California.

Also, it will make a big difference in the media coverage if one candidate wins at least two-thirds of the states voting today, as opposed to each candidate winning about half of the 22 states.

UPDATE: Wow, an exciting night with both candidates able to claim victory.

Obama will win 13 or 14 of the 22 states, which is impressive. True, many of them have low numbers of  Democrats participating (AK, ID, ND), but it does impress me that Democrats in the deep-red states seem to want Obama at the top of the ticket. Obama won by a surprisingly large margin in DE and won narrowly in CT and MO. He won IL by a much larger margin than Clinton won NY.

He can credibly claim that he can compete in all parts of the country.

On the other hand, Hillary looks set to crush Obama in California, despite all of the endorsements and glowing media coverage for Obama there lately. Hillary also beat Obama convincingly in MA, where the governor and both senators were for Obama, and in NJ, where some pollsters had Obama leading toward the end. She won in red states like TN and OK, not to mention AR.

It will be a while before we figure out the delegate count. If it’s a tie or close to that, Obama will be very happy, because the states set to vote for the rest of this month heavily favor him. He could have a delegate lead going into March 4, when TX and OH vote.

But given how early the networks called California and Arizona, Clinton seems to have held on to her big edge among Latinos. That doesn’t bode well for Obama’s prospects of winning TX.

I am pleased with the outcome. I didn’t want the nomination to be wrapped up tonight. We benefit from more time with our candidates in the limelight.

I hope the media will now start asking Obama more tough questions, because I’d be a lot more comfortable with him as the nominee if he gets plenty of media scrutiny in the next month or two.

More debates will help our candidates sharpen their messages as well.

All in all, a good night to be a Democrat.  

Hey Folks –

If you are a supporter of renewable energy in Iowa, I hope
you will consider making a call of support to your legislator –

The 25% by 2025 RPS is up tomorrow in the Iowa Senate in subcommittee
and might be in the full Natural Resources & Environmental Protection
committee on Thursday for consideration and a vote.

We are trying to generate some calls, e-mails, etc., to the
subcommittee members (Sen. Hogg, Sen. Ragan and Sen. Gaskill. and to
the full committee (see below). The bills are SF2070 and SF2071. There
are two  SF2070 is more complex and sponsored by Hogg, SF2071 is very
simple and has 22 Senate Democrats as co-sponsors (Sen. Ragan is a
cosponsor). Read the bills here –
http://www.legis.state.ia.us/Legislation.html

If you are constituents of these senators, please call them at the
senate switchboard – (515) 281-3371 .

Thanks-

Rich Dana
Iowa Outreach Coordinator
Union of Concerned Scientists
319.530.6051
rich@…
—————————-

Natural Resources and Environment
Committee Members

* Dennis H. Black (D, District 21), Chair (Newton Area)
* Tom Hancock (D, District 16), Vice Chair (Dubuque Area)
* E. Thurman Gaskill (R, District 6), Ranking Member (Clear Lake Area)
* Jerry Behn (R, District 24) (Urbandale/Boone area)
* Joe Bolkcom (D, District 39) (Iowa City area)
* Dick L. Dearden (D, District 34)(Des Moines East)
* Rob Hogg (D, District 19) (Cedar Rapids)
* David Johnson (R, District 3) (Spirit Lake Area)
* Steve Kettering (R, District 26) (Sac City Area)
* Mary Lundby (R, District 18) (Marion)
* Larry Noble (R, District 35) (Ankeny Area)
* Amanda Ragan (D, District 7) (Mason City Area)
* Brian Schoenjahn (D, District 12) (Strawberry Point Area)
* Dr. Joe M. Seng (D, District 43) (Davenport)
* Frank Wood (D, District 42) (Eldridge Area)

Find your Legislator Here: http://www.legis.state.ia.us/FindLeg/

I haven’t had time to look into the details, but the Des Moines Register ran this article on a bill which would deal with water quality. House Study Bill 615 has co-sponsors from both parties and calls for the following things, according to the Register:

Experts would study 11 regional watersheds per year and identify each area’s most pressing needs. Watersheds that present the greatest health risks would be prioritized, and the worst areas would get any available money from the state Department of Natural Resources. A Water Resources Coordinating Council would be established within the governor’s office to coordinate regulatory efforts, help Iowans organize local watershed projects and help them get money more easily for water quality projects. A marketing campaign would alert Iowans about the need to take personal responsibility for the water in their area.

Here’s a link to the text of House Study Bill 615, for those of you who want to read the whole thing.

This probably won’t be popular with many blog readers, but I am 100 percent behind Representative Swati Dandekar’s proposal to ban the use of cell phones while driving. Like she says, it’s a public safety issue. If you need to make a call, pull over, park and make your call.

I can’t remember where I’ve seen it, but research has shown that drivers are more distracted when talking on the phone than they are by talking to another person sitting in the car with them.