“We have a big job ahead of us,” Chris McGowan told a Republican crowd in Sioux City on October 22. “They expect Iowa four to do the heavy lifting for the rest of the state. Are we up for the task?”

McGowan is the GOP nominee in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district, an open seat. His remarks underscore why President Donald Trump held that rally in Sioux City, and why Vice President JD Vance headlined an event in Council Bluffs in September.

While Iowans in the first, second, and third Congressional districts could help Democrats win back the U.S. House of Representatives, voters in the fourth district may determine who runs state government.

Republican candidates need big margins in northern and western Iowa in order to win statewide elections. Iowa GOP state chair Jeff Kaufmann screamed at the Sioux City crowd, “It is not an overstatement to say that the fourth district is our secret weapon. We need you again, fourth district! Will you be there for us?”

Signs suggest Republicans may leave votes on the table in the reddest part of Iowa. The two candidates most at risk of underperforming there are U.S. Senate nominee Ashley Hinson and Attorney General Brenna Bird.

When U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson was gearing up to run for Senate last year, her primary objectives appeared to be pleasing the “audience of one” in the White House and clearing the Republican field. Within days of her campaign launch, she had locked down support from President Donald Trump and most of the GOP establishment.

That should have been enough in a state where Democrats haven’t won a U.S. Senate race since 2008, and Republicans enjoy a large voter registration advantage.

Things haven’t gone according to plan.

Whether you consider Iowa’s U.S. Senate race a toss-up (like the Cook Political Report, the Silver Bulletin, and Fox News), tilting Republican (Inside Elections) or still leaning in Hinson’s direction (Sabato’s Crystal Ball), one fact is undeniable: Hinson and her allies are trying to change the dynamic of the campaign.

Their twofold strategy is to tear down the Democratic nominee, State Representative Josh Turek, while shoring up Hinson’s support with conservatives. And they have good reasons to worry.

Since the demise of the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, we have rarely seen snapshots of Iowa voters not connected to any campaign or group planning to spend heavily on behalf of one candidate.

So it’s worth digging into the numbers Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media released on August 6 after surveying 712 “likely voters” from August 2 through August 4. The toplines show Democrat Rob Sand leading the governor’s race and Republican Ashley Hinson slightly ahead (but within the poll’s margin of error) in the U.S. Senate race. Let’s look under the hood.

Douglas Burns is a fourth-generation Iowa journalist. He is the co-founder of the Western Iowa Journalism Foundation and a member of the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative, where this article first appeared on The Iowa Mercury newsletter. His family operated the Carroll Times Herald for 93 years in Carroll, Iowa where Burns resides.

Greene County Attorney Thomas Laehn, the only Libertarian Party candidate ever elected in a partisan contest in Iowa, intends to use the Constitution to break the Democrat-Republican stranglehold on the nation’s government in his race for the U.S. Senate, he said in a wide-ranging, hour-long interview last week in Jefferson.

Laehn, who says the American Republic is now an elective monarchy with oligarchic influences, is a fierce critic of the government use of eminent domain for private-interest carbon-capture pipelines. He thinks abortion should be decided fully at the state level, although Laehn describes himself as “radically” anti-abortion, who if elected at the state level, would support a total abortion ban.

He supports decriminalization of marijuana possession and use, which he says is the first bill he’d introduce in the Senate.

Rick Morain is the former publisher and owner of the Jefferson Herald, for which he writes a regular column. This essay first appeared on Substack.

A recent email from the Iowa Attorney General’s (AG’s) office to Greene County Assistant Attorney Laura Snider is of great concern to Greene County Attorney Thomas Laehn. That’s because it displays a quandary created by the state’s 2023 government reorganization act.

Much of Snider’s work in the county attorney’s office deals with Child in Need of Assistance (CINA) cases. Iowa law puts county attorneys in charge of such cases, particularly when it comes to deciding whether to recommend that a court remove a child from a parent’s custody.

The Iowa Department of Health and Human Services also plays a role in those decisions. The email from the attorney general’s office included a proposed agreement for Snider to sign, which would establish new procedures for how a CINA case would be handled if the Greene County attorney’s office and HHS disagree in a particular case.

Rick Morain is the former publisher and owner of the Jefferson Herald, for which he writes a regular column. This essay first appeared on Substack.

As I write this column, the United States government is still shut down. Federal employees are not getting paid.

No, wait, that’s not quite true. Most federal employees are not getting paid.

Who’s still receiving a paycheck?

That would be President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, members of Congress, and federal judges. The Constitution requires that they be paid no matter what. Their staffs—and those amount to many thousands of people—are continuing to work, but without receiving their salaries. They’ll be entitled to their back pay once the government reopens.

“The system is broken,” declared Libertarian Thomas Laehn as he kicked off his U.S. Senate campaign on October 11.

The Greene County attorney, who became the first Libertarian elected to a partisan office in Iowa in 2018, styled his case against two-party governance as a two-count “indictment” of the 535 members of Congress.

One of his central arguments could appeal to many disaffected Republicans.

UPDATE: Wahls formally launched his Senate bid on June 11. You can watch his interview with Laura Belin about the campaign here. Original post follows.

Dave Price had the scoop for Gray Media on March 28: State Senator Zach Wahls is “certainly listening” to those who have encouraged him to run for U.S. Senate in 2026.

Wahls is the first Democrat to publicly express interest in this race. Two-term Senator Joni Ernst has not formally launched her re-election campaign but is widely expected to seek a third term.

Wahls told Price he will decide whether to run for higher office after the Iowa legislative session. But he’s already criticizing Ernst, most recently in a March 26 news release that tied the senator to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s “reckless mishandling of military plans” in a Signal group chat.

MAGA activists are increasingly unhappy with U.S. Senator Joni Ernst and looking for someone to run against her in Iowa’s 2026 Senate primary.

If conservatives aren’t able to stop Ernst from winning the nomination, they may have a place to park their protest votes in the general election. Libertarian Thomas Laehn again confirmed to Bleeding Heartland he’s seriously considering a Senate bid.

Greene County Attorney Thomas Laehn, who was the first Libertarian elected to partisan office in Iowa, is considering a bid for U.S. Senate in 2026.

The Thomas Laehn Exploratory Committee filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission in December, but the committee’s campaign website, Laehn4Iowa.org, was just launched in late July.

Laehn spoke to Bleeding Heartland by phone last month about why he may run for Senate and what factors will influence his decision.

Dr. Thomas Laehn is the Greene County attorney and the only Libertarian to hold an elective partisan office in Iowa. The Des Moines Register published an earlier version of this commentary.

After virtually no meaningful debate and only a single, relatively inconsequential amendment, both chambers of our Republican-controlled legislature approved Governor Kim Reynolds’ massive state government reorganization plan (Senate File 514) within a two-week period. Reynolds signed the bill on April 4.

Unsurprisingly, the new law—which originated in the executive branch—will transfer significant power from the legislature to the governor. Sadly, in both Washington, DC and Des Moines, our legislators (regardless of their party affiliation) have regularly displayed far greater loyalty to their party than to the constitutional system of separated powers to which they swore their allegiance upon assuming office.

While I am thus entirely unsurprised by our Republican legislators’ abdication of their constitutional responsibilities, I am deeply disappointed at their willingness to subvert the local administration of justice in our state in the process. Ironically, the political party that has always claimed to defend local government against those who would otherwise centralize power is systematically stripping our local elected officials—including our county auditors, school boards, and county attorneys—of their discretion.

Although the Libertarian Party lost full political party status in Iowa when Jake Porter received less than 2 percent of the vote for governor, Libertarians reached a milestone with Thomas Laehn’s election as Greene County attorney on November 6.