Survey USA finds record low approval for Iowa leaders

Couple of things (4.00 / 2)

The sample composition:

D-28
R-34
NP-35

Obviously, if considering registered adults, the D/R fractions should be reversed. However, back in July, they used:

D-38
R-24
NP-34

so the Dem fraction was too high back then. Conclusion? Perhaps the July survey was a bit too favorable, and perhaps this one a bit too unfavorable. IOW, they're not re-weighting for partisan composition (likely/registered). Bottom line is that if you re-weight these results for registered adults, you still get poor nrs. Too lazy, but by eyeballing, I'd put Obama at 47, tops, and Culver at 37, tops.

The one thing that jumps out for Grassley, Harkin and Culver is that for the 18-34 age group (30% of the sample), the number of undecideds has jumped up. 30% of this group are undecided about Harkin (7% last time), 24% for Grassley, 25% for Culver. It seems that except for Obama, this group has shifted from fav -> don't know for their own reps. That could just be luck of the draw, so it's something to look out for next time. It might be b/c colleges are back in session and out-of-state students are clueless about IA pols.

Culver seems to be steady w/ 50+ yro, most of his crashing is under 50.

Obama's biggest drop seems to be 18-34, with not that many undecideds.

Harkin is pretty much OK. His nrs across age groups have dropped a bit, but the real issue is the 18-30 fuzziness.

Grassley is steady b/t 30-50 yo. His drop comes from 18-30 fuzziness and a big drop w/ seniors, which appears to be bipartisan, just the way he likes it. Probably an odd mix of Dems who now think he enables Repubs, and Repubs who think he's enabling Dems. No win, but I think he'll recover.

Harkin/Grassley will probably ride out the storm w/o too many problems unless something really crazy happens w/ health reform or something else.

I don't think Culver/Obama are in terribly good shape. Culver low 40s, at best, and Obama, high 40s, at best. SUSA's Obama VA nrs are pretty consistent w/ what I sense, and the general regional trend of his sharpest declines has been south, followed by midwest. Something like 42 in VA and 47 in IA sounds about reasonable. For Obama, his IA nrs would be bellwether-like.

I think ppl have the same issues w/ Culver/Obama. They are not "hated" by most (like the kind of outrage/anger you'd find at a conservative site). It's the lack of direction. I mean, the latest headlines are something like "Obama may give a speech about health care and will possibly be more prescriptive if the moon is in phase with Venus." When you add unemployment and banks not lending, it's Chinese water torture.

Just wait until the mandates sink in -- 18-34 might get interesting.

HD90 -- don't think that's much of a proxy for statewide/national races, except for the GOP not bothering with absentee/field. If they don't want to do the hard work of organizing, well, Dem majorities 4EVAH. It's not like Dems won last year w/o hustling.

Second -- can we be honest? The Repub just appears scary while Hanson seems friendly and non-threatening. I know this is superficial, but the Repub just scared me.

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by: ragbrai08 @ Wed Sep 02, 2009 at 12:12:48 PM CDT

thanks (4.00 / 1)

I didn't notice that sample composition. Definitely too low on Ds and probably too high on Is if we're talking about an off-year election.

I don't know what the deal is, but SUSA always comes in with the lowest numbers for Culver, just like CBS/NYT used to come in with the lowest numbers for Bush.

On the other hand, Selzer tends to come in at the high end for Culver, so if he's in the mid-40s or lower in her next poll, that's worrisome.

For what it's worth, Hill Research measured Obama's favorability in Iowa at 56 percent last month. I know that's not the same as an approval rating, but they didn't release his approval rating.

Harkin's not up for re-election until 2014, and for all I know he may retire at that time.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Wed Sep 02, 2009 at 13:18:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Culver (4.00 / 1)

I was reading an article in the WP last weekend. I was bleary-eyed, not enough coffee, and I thought it was the standard stuff from Culver:

But it's far worse in California, where thousands of teachers are being laid off. And in Arizona, where the state is considering selling off legislative buildings. For that matter, it's worse in Minnesota, Rhode Island and many other places.

...

That, at least, is the message that Gov. XXX (D) is spreading as he explains YYY's efforts to balance its books.

But XXX, who is up for reelection next year, seems particularly eager to make the case that things are worse elsewhere.

It wasn't until I hit:

"There's no stronger ship in the nation than the good ship Maryland."" O'Malley asserted

that the fog cleared. Wait ... watercraft, not farm manure, wrong state ...

Thing is, O'Malley has already made a big round of budget cuts (last week). He's already restructured state income tax to be more progressive (special session. late '07). The idea I get, largely from IA's press, is that Culver waffles here and there, finger points (for example, LSA), and isn't presenting a clear-cut leadership plan. A big consulting contract to find waste?

Now here's the Republican pushback against O'Malley:

Senate Minority Leader Allan H. Kittleman accused O'Malley of "trying to divert attention" from Maryland's problems with his frequent references to other states, saying "the governor seems to have a very difficult time accepting responsibility for his actions."

"You can't dispute the national economy has played some role in it," said Kittleman (R-Howard), "but if the governor had made better decisions earlier, we wouldn't be in as bad of shape. It's true that California is in a bad position, but I'm not worried about California. I'm worried about Maryland."

O'Malley is a man of action compared to Culver ... Of course, it helps to be in a state where 2/3 of voters are registered Dem, and, as of today, no serious opponent on the horizon. Culver comes across as semi-paralyzed, perhaps worrying too much about next year, and that whole bus ad fiasco is a symptom.

I would guess that it doesn't really matter whether he's at 42 or 49 or 52. In case Branstad steps up as the "budget fixer," Culver needs to have a preemptive plan. I don't think reactive will work out well for him.

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by: ragbrai08 @ Wed Sep 02, 2009 at 19:58:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

one can only hope (0.00 / 0)

that Culver's team has been developing a plan this summer, in anticipation of the final revenue numbers for fiscal 2009, which will be released in September.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Wed Sep 02, 2009 at 20:30:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

now you've done it (0.00 / 0)

can we be honest? The Repub just appears scary while Hanson seems friendly and non-threatening. I know this is superficial, but the Repub just scared me.

After I've tried so hard not to take cheap shots at the guy's beard.

Seriously, I think the idea was that Burgmeier didn't look scary to regular rural folks--only to elitists from the city.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Wed Sep 02, 2009 at 13:27:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

what about rural women (0.00 / 0)

surely there must be a few who favor the "nice guy" over the proprietor of Hooter Lane Farms.

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by: ragbrai08 @ Wed Sep 02, 2009 at 19:18:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm sure it helps (0.00 / 0)

that large numbers of rural women in this district either took driver's ed with Hanson or had friends/children/neighbors who did.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Wed Sep 02, 2009 at 20:32:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No bump blues (0.00 / 0)

Regardless of SUSA's flaws in methodology, one thing that this poll shows is that Culver got absolutely no summer bump this year.

As we've talked about before, the last two summers Culver has enjoyed a nice lazy summer bump of about 5-7% in his favorable ratings. Mostly, it's just because he trades in fighting with the legislature for judging pies at the State Fair. (Even with the flood last summer, he got the "summer bump".)

But this year...nothing. So that means he's going to go into the legislative session (where he typically loses support) without a summer bump to burn through. That's going to hurt, especially if he's going to be walking into a budget firefight.  

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by: American007 @ Thu Sep 03, 2009 at 11:53:51 AM CDT

alternatively (0.00 / 0)

Culver and the Democratic statehouse leaders will realize that with Branstad in the governor's race, they have to get their act together and stop pointing fingers/blaming each other for stuff that doesn't get done.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Sep 03, 2009 at 13:36:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]