Rasmussen poll finds little change in Senate race

The Republican polling firm Rasmussen conducted a one-day survey of 500 “likely voters” in Iowa on March 17. Click here for topline results.

Senator Chuck Grassley still leads all his Democratic challengers, with no statistically significant change in his lead since Rasmussen’s last Iowa poll in February. He leads Roxanne Conlin 55 percent to 36 percent (the February numbers were 53-36). Grassley leads Bob Krause 57-31 (55-33 in February), and he leads Tom Fiegen 57-28 (56-28 in February).

Instead of asking respondents whether they approved of Grassley’s work in the Senate, Rasmussen asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable impression of the senator. He was at 66 percent very or somewhat favorable, 31 percent very or somewhat unfavorable. (The latest Selzer poll for the Des Moines Register measured Grassley’s approval at 54 percent, but favorability numbers can often run ahead of approval numbers.)

Clearly the Senate race is still Grassley’s to lose, but he’s not likely to be re-elected with the huge margins he’s had in the past. There is also plenty of time for the race to tighten up if Grassley makes big mistakes. As Senate Guru reminded us in this diary, the current fundraising quarter ends March 31. I encourage Democrats to get involved and support one of Grassley’s challengers. Here are links to donate to the Conlin campaign, the Fiegen campaign and the Krause campaign.

Other notable findings from the latest Rasmussen poll: President Barack Obama’s approve/disapprove numbers were 50/49, but Governor Chet Culver is still in negative territory at 41 percent approve/57 disapprove. About 45 percent of respondents said they favored “the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats,” while 53 percent said they opposed it. Remember, this poll was in the field before Congress gave final approval to the bill Obama signed yesterday. I am curious to see future polling on the issue. A quickie USA Today/Gallup nationwide poll released yesterday was the first in a long time to show net positive approval for health care reform: 49 percent of respondents said it was a “good thing” that Congress passed the bill over the weekend, while 40 percent said it was a “bad thing.”

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desmoinesdem

  • Grassley has a lot more opposition than he thinks

    I have been talking to people here in N.W.Iowa and they have voted for Grassley in the past, but not this time.  Most of these are Democrats who voted for him as they thought he was pretty moderate and he had seniority in the Senate.

    After last summer’s town hall’s, he lost them and a lot of republicans as well.  

    I watched him at the town hall in my town, change from my Senator to a tea party Senator in front of my eyes.  He is and was scared of the tea partiers and that is not who these people voted for, and they won’t do it again.

    I don’t know who is going to win the Democratic primary, but I will be working for whichever one it is.  It is time for Grassley to retire and our State needs to get good representation in Washington.

  • The Conlin effect has been WAY WAY overrated........

    …to really NO one’s surprise, Grassley will win this one going away.

    I really think democrats had many many stronger candidates than Conlin to run in this race….not to say ANY would win….

    but timing is everything……..

    • don't know who you had in mind

      but it’s not easy to find anyone willing to step up against a 30-year incumbent.

      I think everyone recognizes that Grassley is unlikely to lose. Then again, the same could have been said about William Roth in Delaware, George Allen in Virginia, etc.

      • Grassley

        Allen a suprise loss yes but Roth no…Roth was in his eighties and facing a very popular governor in a blue state so it was no suprise he lost.  Allen self destructed.  

        Iowa isn’t as blue as Delaware.  Grassley isn’t as old as Roth was and is not facing anyone of Carper’s stature.  Also 2010 is likely to be much more for GOP Sentors then 2000, 2006 or 2008.

        So unless Grassley has a maccaca moment he should be good to go.  Will he win 70%? No.  Maybe not even 60% But I see no way Conlin or anyone else in the race gets him below the very high 50’s.

  • developments today...

    We all remember Grassley saying the Health Care bill (now law) could allow the gov’t to “pull the plug on grandma,” but TODAY, right now, he is taking credit for the Health Care Bill – a Bill he voted “NO” to over and over and over again!

    I nearly fell out my chair!

    I don’t care who you are, this doesn’t play well with independent voters, certainly not re-energized democrats (dems who may have voted for him in the past).   While this alone doesn’t sweep a Democrat into office, it does prove he isn’t flub proof, more of this kind of “moment(s)” & a bit of luck, things begin to get interesting.

    Today’s, “i was against it but then for it” moment certainly didn’t help pad his lead.

  • Rasmussen

    Also I know Rasmussen has been charged with bias but I do not think it is a “Republican polling firm”.

    • Rasmussen is a Republican

      and his firm’s “house effect” has been well established. He also uses his polls to help GOP candidate recruitment; for instance, he will poll the Dem incumbent against the strongest possible Republican challenger, but he has been known to poll Republican incumbents against “generic Democrat” (not the Democrats’ dream recruit).

  • Funk campaign now reduced to posting fake "poll" results...

    …whatever you say about Rasmussen, it is FAR better than ANY campaign posting a FAKE poll as “results”…yet the Dave Funk campaign amazingly just did…posting a KNIA poll, where you can vote AS MANY TIMES AS YOU LIKE, as a factual poll. You can see the posting right on his facebook page.  I don’t think I have ever laughed longer or louder in my life.

    WOW….does any campaign have to get this desperate????

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