Is Loebsack Vulnerable in 2008?

Political analyst Larry Sabato released a list of 15 Freshman Congressman that are vulnerable in 2008.

Sabato writes…

The strong anti-GOP waves we witnessed in 2006 may be somewhat tempered by the time of the next slate of elections. So it follows that several freshman Democrats in districts that are essentially toss-ups–or even normally favor Republicans–could be in grave danger if political winds shift.

One of the 15 Congressman named is Iowa's 2nd District Representive, Dave Loebsack.  Here is what Sabato says about Loebsack…

IOWA's 2nd DISTRICT: Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, Burlington

  • Representative: Dave Loebsack (D)
  • Outlook: Leans Democratic

Rep. Dave Loebsack, an ex-Political Science professor (quite a noble profession we must note), defeated ex-Rep. Jim Leach in 2006, taking advantage of the Democratic wave that even swept away Leach who voted against the Iraq use of force resolution. Leach was primarily a victim of party ID in a district that favored each of the past two Democratic presidential nominees by double digit margins. Earlier this year, Loebsack actually wrote a bill that would name a building after Leach, perhaps trying to smooth over some feathers he ruffled by accepting PAC donations, something Leach shunned during his time in office. Loebsack is definitely trying to endear himself to the district, but he doesn't seem to have the same fit with the district that Leach managed in his 30 years as its congressman. The rumor mill has been quiet about possible challengers, but don't expect Loebsack to escape uncontested.


I disagree with Sabato that Leach was a better fit for the district than Loebsack. IA-02 is one of the heaviest leaning Democratic districts in the country. Leach was a Republican, Loebsack is a Democrat, it is that simple.

So it seems that Sabato thinks Loebsack has a good shot of being challenged in 2008 in a Democratic Primary. This isn't that surprising since there might have been some people thinking about running, but never thought Leach could be beat. Now that Loebsack has taken down Leach, they might think it is their shot.

Anyone in the Iowa City heard these whispers about possible challengers to Loebsack?


Cross posted at Century of the Common Iowan

Tags: IA-02, Loebsack

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  • you've got to be kidding me

    I don't believe Loebsack is vulnerable at all. If there will be a Democratic primary challenge, it would be more likely to come against Boswell.

    I think Larry Sabato is overrated as a political analyst.