Gordon Fischer asks a good question

Over at his blog, Iowa True Blue, Gordon Fischer (who has endorsed Obama) raises an important point:

http://www.iowatrueb…  

 

HRC's campaign is continually touting her national poll numbers. (Of course, we don't have a national primary, we have Iowa, New Hampshire, and so on.)  Anyway, HRC's staff routinely swoons and goes ga-ga over these national polls — which show her around, or even a bit above, 50%.

Here's the open question:  If HRC is at 50% in the national polls, as constantly hyped by her own campaign, shouldn't she get 50% in Iowa (or at least close!), where she has been campaigning for months and months and months? Presumably, Iowans have gotten to know her as well as anyone. Or better!  If she can't come close to matching her national poll numbers in Iowa — isn't that a loss for her?  If not, why not?

I think the Clinton campaign's answer is easy to predict, based on comments I see frequently from Clinton supporters at MyDD and Daily Kos.

Iowa is “lily-white” and “not representative” of the whole country. Also, Iowans are sexist (never having sent a woman to Congress).

Of course, Iowa Democrats, who will be attending the Democratic caucuses, are not sexist. We have nominated two women for governor and many other women to statewide positions or Congressional seats.

And while Iowa is largely white, it is socio-economically a fairly “average” state, and in that sense more representative than New Hampshire. 

But that won't stop the Clinton campaign spin if she does falter in the caucuses.

Anyone else want to take a stab at answering Gordon's question?


 
   
 
 
  • Gordon's question

    I would say that it is because of two things–

    one, we Iowans have seen plenty of Hillary, which helps us to separate “real Hillary” (who, in my opinion, is not too different from every other presidential candidate we’ve seen in Iowa) from the imaginary version of her much of the rest of the country “knows,”

    and two, we have seen lots of the other candidates, and so know them well enough to have become genuinely attracted to them–for me, that’s what makes Obama stand out.  Of all the candidates, he’s the only one who’s DIFFERENT from the rest.  That’s something you can’t see or feel if you live in Oklahoma and only get tiny snippets of each candidate on the evening news. 

    Hillary is familiar to those people, that’s all.

    -Tara

  • Hillary

    She’s been trending upward in almost every recent Iowa poll i have seen and her competitors have to break this trend right now before she pulls away.

    What’s the latest about the Democratic iowa caucus date?
    A few days ago , a poster at DailyKos wrote a very interesting diary about the democrats in Iowa scheduling their caucus on a different date then the republicans and this poster wondered who would benefit if a few republicans decided to caucus in both parties’s event.

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