What's going to happen tomorrow?
I think Obama will win Vermont and Texas (popular vote and delegate count), while Clinton will win Ohio and Rhode Island. I don't think Clinton will gain serious ground on Obama.
If she doesn't win the popular vote in Ohio and Texas, I do think Clinton should drop out. If she wins the popular vote in those states, I think it's reasonable for her to continue on to Pennsylvania, even though it would be very hard for her to overtake Obama in the delegate count.
9 Comments
Don't want to pull a Florida here...
so I’ll only go as far as to say Obama takes Vermont and Clinton takes Rhode Island. I really truly think Texas and Ohio are both tossups. There could be a split or a clean sweep for either candidate.
american007 Mon 3 Mar 11:01 PM
Get out your brooms: The Sweep is on!
The only thing that Super Tuesday Redux will reveal, other than Obama will have pretty much sealed the Dem. nomination, is that the polls cannot accurately gauge this year’s Dem. primary. That said, when I put my finger in the wind, it tells me Obama will walk away with a clean sweep tomorrow.
Obama by 5 in Ohio, a double-digit margin of 12 in Texas, an even greater margin of 17 in Vermont, and ending with with a 9-point margin Rhode Island.
Full disclosure: No I’m not an overzealous, hope-mongering Obamahead, but the momentum and trends tell me Obama’s unmeasureable populace will prevail.
If anything, I hope the results keep proving the pollsters wrong, so we can discard this archaic and feeble attempt of trying to legitimize political prognostication as an actual science.
tmlindsey Mon 3 Mar 11:56 PM
you're too optimistic about OH and TX
and too pessimistic about VT. I’ll be surprised if Obama doesn’t win by 25-30 points there. He has duped a lot of progressives into thinking he is on their side.
desmoinesdem Tue 4 Mar 4:51 AM
Duped?
If some progressives are being duped by Obama, they really aren’t very bright. The “traitor to progressives” aspects of Obama’s candidacy, as you describe it, has been an open, clear part of his campaign from the beginning. But if you want to talk about progressives being duped by empty rhetoric, we should probably be talking about the Edwards campaign… – Sorry, just couldn’t resist that!
rf Tue 4 Mar 8:30 AM
oh boy, you don't spend much time at Daily Kos
where endless diaries are written about how wonderful Obama will be for progressives. He sometimes even gets compared to Wellstone, which is absurd.
Right here in Iowa, Gordon Fischer is among the Obama supporters who will swear up and down that Obama was by far the most progressive candidate in the presidential race. I would argue that not only Edwards, but also Dodd and Biden (on most domestic issues) have a more solid progressive record than Obama.
A case can even be made that Hillary is more progressive than Obama if you look at certain extremely important votes, like the vote on Bush’s 2005 energy bill.
You may have your eyes wide open, but a lot of progressives in the MoveOn.org/Democracy for America crowd are going to be extremely disappointed in Obama.
desmoinesdem Tue 4 Mar 8:49 AM
You are right
I don’t spend much time on Daily Kos. I simply don’t have the time.
If what you say is happening, I find it strange considering Obama’s openness about his views and approach. I hope you don’t hold Obama responsible for all his overly eager or deranged supporters. And I can certainly see why you and many others are annoyed/disturbed/suspicious by some aspects of Obamamania.
rf Tue 4 Mar 10:51 AM
i'll take it down a notch on projections
this guy’s projections are quite optimistic. Obama will probably win Texas, where they have to vote and caucus, but I’m not holding my breath on him winning by double-digits or more. In Ohio, I think Hillary has picked up some momentum and has breathed a little life into her campaign there. She has had good media coverage since after the Obama/Kenyan outfit surfaced. So, Ohio is a little more difficult to predict. I think Ohio will have less than a 6 point margin either way, but Hillary will probably win given the demographics of the population.
I don’t spend much time at Daily Kos mostly because, with all of the diaries, it becomes time-consuming trying to figure out who has something important to say. Credibility is an issue. I feel some sense of credibility coming from Desmoinesdem just because of her strong writing ability, citations through links, and analysis. It’s harder to get that at a larger blog where there are many opinions all over the place. Mostly though, it’s just because I don’t have time to sift through them.
drinksgreentea Tue 4 Mar 10:15 AM
the signal to noise ratio at Kos
leaves something to be desired.
I only open a small fraction of the diaries. I check out some of what’s on the recommended list, and there are certain authors I always open, because their diaries are well-researched.
It’s disappointing that a lot of diaries at Daily Kos have little analytical content. As somebody’s grandfather once said, if you don’t have anything to say, don’t say it.
desmoinesdem Tue 4 Mar 10:30 AM
When not on the ground
in these states, it is difficult to gauge the situation. But based on the latest polls and the last couple of days of media coverage, I predict Hillary will take Rhode Island, Ohio and Texas. The battle continues.
rf Tue 4 Mar 8:29 AM