Congressman Leonard Boswell’s campaign finally released some results from its internal polling today. An e-mail from campaign manager Scott Ourth said that according to a survey by Anzalone Liszt Research, 65 percent of likely primary voters would vote for Boswell.
If Boswell did win 65 percent of the vote on June 3, he would do slightly better than 8-year incumbent Jane Harman did in the 2006 primary to represent California’s 36th district. Harman, who like Boswell was backed by pretty much the whole state Democratic Party establishment, defeated peace activist Marcy Winograd by 62.4 percent to 37.5 percent.
The e-mail from the Boswell campaign did not contain details such as:
-which days the poll was in the field
-the number of respondents surveyed
-what criteria were used to code a respondent as a likely voter
-the pollster’s projected turnout for June 3
-support for the candidates among men vs. women and in various age groups
-the percent for Ed Fallon versus undecided.
I have asked for more information about the poll and will update this post if I receive answers from the Boswell campaign.
It mentioned that 63 percent of those who attended the Iowa caucuses in January said they would vote for Boswell if the election were held today–though it is not clear from the e-mail whether those who attended caucuses were automatically included in the likely voter pool for the primary.
About 58,000 people in Iowa’s third district attended Democratic caucuses on January 3. Only about 38,000 people in the third district voted in the 2006 Democratic gubernatorial primary.
I have not heard any projections from the Boswell campaign about how many people they expect to turn out on June 3.
Ourth’s e-mail alludes to mailing in early ballots. Presumably there has been an extensive effort to get supporters to return absentee ballots. Fallon’s campaign has also been urging supporters to vote early.
The e-mail also boasts that Boswell doubled Fallon’s fundraising during the latest reporting period, from April 1 to May 14. It links to this report from the Des Moines Register:
Federal Election Commission records show that Boswell, of Des Moines, took in more than $180,000 in contributions between April 1 and May 14. Of that sum, $93,000 came from political action committees, or a little more than half of his total donations.
Boswell, who’s been in office since 1996 and sits on the House agriculture and transportation committees, reported $709,000 cash on hand. He spent $311,000 during the period battling Fallon.
Fallon, also of Des Moines, reported that he collected nearly $73,000, including a $25 contribution from his own pocket. Fallon has been endorsed by groups such as Democracy for America that have assisted him in gaining individual contributions on the Internet, which he has needed since he does not accept PAC money.
Fallon spent about $64,000 during the period and said he had about $28,000 cash on hand by May 14.
Fallon’s campaign strategy has focused on building a strong field operation. During his liveblog session at the EENR blog today, he expressed optimism based on his campaign’s direct voter contacts, and mentioned that yesterday alone the campaign had over 2,200 phone calls and door knocks. Lacking the money to match Boswell’s spending on direct-mail and advertising, Fallon’s chance to pull off an upset depends on the success of his efforts to identify and turn out supporters.
As for the issues, Boswell is still trying to downplay differences between himself and Fallon, telling a reporter for the weekly Cityview,
“If you look at the issues, there’s just not a lot of difference between us,” Boswell said. “He’s taking things out of context and trying to conjure up differences that don’t exist.”
That same article quotes Boswell as promising to support the winner of the primary, which is the first time I’ve heard him make that pledge. He must be feeling very confident, since earlier this spring his campaign would not give me an unequivocal statement promising to support the winner of the primary.
Meanwhile, Boswell’s Congressional office will not take my phone calls or return my voice mail messages seeking clarification of his stand on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. More background on that issue is in this post.
If Boswell has quietly agreed to go along with Republican efforts to grant retroactive immunity to telecommunications companies, despite his public stand with House Democrats on this issue in March, the voters of the third district deserve to know about it.
The full text of today’s e-mail from campaign manager Scott Ourth is after the jump.
With only twelve days left in the 2008 primary election season, I wanted to issue a quick update from the Boswell for Congress shop. First, however, I want to thank you for your tireless support and your infectious enthusiasm. It is because of you, your loyalty to Congressman Boswell, and your years of dedicated work that I am able to issue a robust “state of the campaign” report.
Our campaign recently enlisted Anzalone Liszt Research, Inc., a nationally renowned polling and research firm, to conduct a tracking poll. The purpose of the poll was to gauge the opinion of likely primary voters in this race.
Here’s the good news: If the election were held today, 65% of likely primary voters would vote for Congressman Boswell. We also took a sample of caucus goers, and found that 63% of those voters would also vote for Congressman Boswell if the election were held today.
This is very heartening information; it shows that support for Congressman Boswell is widespread and solid among Democrats from across the political spectrum. However, that information is useless if our supporters do not vote. It is essential we remain focused on getting our early ballots mailed in, and remember to get the remaining voters to the polls.
More good news: Your support has generated a much-needed and healthy stream of campaign contributions. The Des Moines Register reported just this morning that Congressman Boswell has raised more than double the money of his opponent for this reporting period. Read the full article:
Boswell’s fundraising more than doubles Fallon’s
Your generosity and energy are obviously making good things happen as we move toward Election Day. The key to success will be to sustain this positive flow of energy and resources right up to 8 o’clock P.M., Tuesday, June 3. Anything can happen in the final days, so we must redouble our efforts and make sure Congressman Boswell crosses the finish line fresh and strong, ready to take on the Republican challenger this fall.
Boswell for Congress
PS – Keep the resources flowing!
Remember to vote June 3rd or request an absentee ballot today, and vote early! For information on how to vote early call the campaign at 515-883-2254.