Primary predictions open thread

OK, political junkies, show us your stuff. Who will win the high-profile primaries in Iowa today?

By that I mean, who will win the Democratic primaries in Iowa’s third and fourth Congressional districts?

Who will win the Republican primary in Iowa’s second Congressional district? (Iowa Independent and the Des Moines Register have profiled the three candidates seeking to take on Congressman Dave Loebsack.)

UPDATE: I forgot that you can also predict which of these three Republicans will become the chump who’ll be lucky to get 40 percent of the vote against Tom Harkin this November.

I will update this post later with my own predictions for the Congressional races.

John Deeth has an outstanding post up going over some of the key primaries in the Iowa House and Senate races. I don’t know enough about those races to make my own predictions, but I encourage you to mention them in your comments if you want to test your prognosticating skills against Deeth’s.

SECOND UPDATE: Finally ready to post my predictions.

Although the GOP establishment seems to be behind Eichhorn for Senate, I’m guessing that Steve Rathje will win that primary. I give him zero chance against Harkin.

In IA-02, I think Mariannette Miller-Meeks will win. I doubt she will give Loebsack much trouble, and I’ll explain why another day.

In IA-04, I think Becky Greenwald will win with at least 35 percent, enough to avoid having to pick the nominee at a district convention. I say this because she’s raised a lot of money, she has the best connections in the southern part of the district, and it doesn’t hurt to be one woman running against three men in a Democratic primary.

In IA-03, I think Boswell will win but by less than 10 points. To be more specific, I’ll go with 54-46 as my guess.

Mike Lux also thinks Boswell will win but warns that his “over-reaction” will make it closer than it should have been:

Boswell’s over-the-top negative campaign against Ed has caused a serious negative reaction, and has got everyone talking. I talked to at least half a dozen people who said they were planning to vote for Leonard, but have switched to Ed because of the mailings, and even Boswell’s supporters have been made nervous and set on edge by the mailings.

I have not seen the Fallon campaign’s internal numbers, and I do not know enough about the process that generated them. My impression is that they did some kind of random selection of voters from the database and then had people call to check their preferences (correct me if I am wrong). My worry is that a lot of polite Iowans may have lied about their intentions when called by someone from the Fallon campaign.

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  • Fallon in the 3rd

    I’ve seen Fallon’s internal numbers. I think he will win comfortably.  


    Fallon winning comfortably? Fallon didn’t even by the van im not sure how extensive his universe or broad it was but the boswell numbers which were an actual poll had him winning by thirty. My guess is Boswell wins by 10 as long as the whole district doesn’t flood because I doubt the boswell people will swim to the polls but I see the fallonites willing to swim

  • The VAN

    So buying the VAN is a criterion for determining who wins? Fallon built a big database for his gubernatorial race, and he beat Culver by 10 points in Polk County. I know his campaign has contacted a much, much larger group of voters than the 400 that were polled for KCCI.  

    • no

      The van isnt a criteria for winning but Fallon’s targets were going to be those activist list from groups like STAR PAC and PCCI and his 2006 list that hardly competes with the van. To win this Fallon needed to target 2008 new democrats and the obama universe. He did not have access to that information. While im sure he is ahead according to the calls and knocks his staff has been doing the boswell people were pretty much targeting anyone that had voted in any democratic primary or caucuses, and those numbers show him ahead. Fallon hasn’t figured out yet that the just talking to liberal activist means you are going to win. I think it will be closer than it should have been giving the mistakes the Boswell people made in this last few news cycles but I do not believe Fallon will pull this one off, and IA-03 will be better for it.

      • wrong

        I’m afraid TheRealWorld isn’t living in it. He or she has drawn inferences about Fallon’s database that simply aren’t true. For one thing, you needn’t buy the VAN to get the new voters. Fallon’s campaign got the updated lists from the caucuses and is doing very well with the new Democrats and Obama supporters. But I’m happy to wait to make any further comments until after the results are in tonight. But I’m sticking with my prediction of Fallon by at least 5 points.  

      • candidates can get the voter list

        from the Secretary of State’s office, I think. There’s not as much information there as you get with the VAN, though.

        • New democrats and obama supporters

          The obama people and the IDP are dreading the fact that fallon might win this because of the massive amounts of problems that would cause to have a congressional candidate that cannot buy into the coordinated campaign and would cause the RNCCC to just spend money widely here. I know the obama people arent breaking for him in the numbers he needs because the obama people have been keeping there people in check and the boswell people have gone after them hard. they may be pissed about the clinton thing but since that is over now hopefully they wont hold it against him. Especially since they need the boswell cross over of veterans and republicans for obama to win this district and state in the general

          • talked to an Obama precinct captain on Saturday

            who is for Fallon. She thinks that the Obama supporters who are more connected to the party establishment, such as the county and district delegates, are mostly sticking with Boswell because he is “good enough.” However, the yard sign trends suggest to me that the rank and file Obama supporters still lean more toward Fallon.

            Whether they are breaking to him in the numbers he needs, I have no idea.

            I suspect there is a generational gap here too, with Obama supporters under age 35 much more likely to go for Fallon than Obama supporters over 35.

      • speaking of Boswell's mistakes

        I encourage you to post a diary after the election about the best and worst moves made by the Boswell campaign this year. What mistakes do you see as affecting the outcome the most?

        I have my own opinions on that, but I’m sure Boswell supporters see it differently.

        Of course any result that’s closer than a 30-point margin for the incumbent is a pretty big indictment. Very few six-term incumbents ever get challenged in a primary. If Boswell can’t do better than Jane Harman’s 62 percent of the vote against Marcy Winograd, that says a lot about how out of step he is with the district.

        • some points

          I will agree with you that its not the best thing in the world that an incumbant might not win by more than 30 percent but that has always been some what of the worry with boswell because he always has tough fights. But he always wins them. In terms of in step with the district. I think boswell is very in step with the whole district. Maybe not so much the liberal activist base but then again most people arent. But thats the thing about democratic primaries its always good to be the most liberal guy in the race. However fallon is much much more out of step with this district then boswell. Boswell is a good pragmatic moderate where as fallon is a not so effective very liberal activist. he would lose in the primary very badly and the republicans would hold onto this seat for the next 20 yrs. If ganske hadn’t gotten over ambitios and gone after harkin he would still be the congressman from this area. I am urging the people of the third district to not make the same mistake they made with neal smith again.  

  • Just sticking to numbers...

    I’m only going to guess at some numbers for the races. Just my thoughts…not wanting to start any more fights.

    3rd Dist. D:

    Boswell: 52%

    Fallon: 48%

    4th Dist. D:

    Meyers: 35%

    Greenwald: 33%

    Meyer: 22%

    Miskell: 10%

    2nd Dist R:

    Miller-Meeks: 60%

    Teahen: 30%

    Harder: 10%

    Congress R:

    Reed: 38%

    Eichorn: 32%

    Rathje: 30%

    • A quick update...

      I went down to my local polling place here in Iowa City 19 around 1:00, and I was voter number…(drumroll please)… 2.

      I know I’m in a very college-student heavy precinct, most of whom are either gone for the summer or just don’t care. I also know that we have no big interesting races here….but, number 2?

      How low is turnout going to be, even in the most interesting “big ticket” precincts? Will it even crack 10% in many places?

      Also, as a side note…I kinda miss the electronic voting machines. I know all about how “bad” they are, and how susceptible to hacking they are, and the paper trail argument and so on and so forth. But I liked them better than the bubble filling and ballot feeding I did today. They were just more convenient and easy to use, in my mind and–at the risk of sounding like a teenager–cooler.  

  • predictions

    I haven’t been following anything but the fouth district, since that’s where I live, so I have no opinion about any of the others.

    I think that Becky or Kurt will win in the 4th. I hope somebody gets at least 35%. I read on another blog that if nobody gets 35% then it will go to convention. That would just cause more strife.  

    • One bright spot...

      Although it would be a huge pain to deal with choosing a candidate at convention, it would at least help people to understand why Instant Runoff Voting is so superior to the way we do things now.  One vote, figure out who has a majority of support among preferences, and you’re done.  We should be using it already.

  • Fallon

    I’ve only followed the 3rd district.  I’m repeating my earlier prediction of Fallon 53, Boz 47.

  • All Eyes on the 3rd

    I seriously wish I had the metrics at hand to make at least an informed forecast on the 3rd, but it occurs to me, just in examining this post, how really poorly such a vital race has been parsed by local MiaSMa. Frankly, I think Boswell’s lack of response to calls for debate are sheer cowardice, and things like DMD have reported, his talking primary talking points being, what, Nader and meth. I wish I was in the 3rd because that is just utter condescending bullshit, and I wouldn’t accept it from anyone, much less my supposed representative.

    I would like someone to ask him, point blank, on the record, as DMD has intrepidly tried to do, how he presumes to quibble, hem and haw – and perhaps even lie about his actions for political expediency – about whether or not the Constitution applies to everyone, or if someone with an assload of money and a corporate logo gets a pass on it because they toadyingly collaborated in the administration’s War on Dissent. As I’ve posted before, I think the Register, even in endorsing Fallon, did the district a HUGE disservice by tacitly giving Boswell a pass on that, and Boswell’s failure to accede to a debate is unconscionable given the broader stakes of this national election cycle.

    You want to lead, if you have moral conviction in your beliefs, however unconstitutional they are, then stand up and be vetted. Lets see your ideas weighed against Fallon’s, directly. But Boswell hid, which should, by any discursive measure, raise questions as to what he has to hide, or is hiding from. Wuss.  

    I wish the 3rd, and even the “activists” so maligned by right-wing Dems, all the luck in the world on turning the page on this unctuous Blue Dog chapter in Iowa politics. A lot of eyes are on you with fervent hopes that we can effect something better in this country, not just “good enough” – especially when “good enough” has ushered us up to the cusp of the abyss.