Electoral Maps

I admit it–I'm kind of a math and statistics junkie. One of the fun things to do around election time is to play with electoral maps. I've found three so far. 270 to win http://www.270towin.com/2008_polls/mccain_obama/ , CNN http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/10/electoral.map/index.html , and Real Clear Politics http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/ .

All of them have Obama ahead, but by different amounts. CNN has the race the closest — 211 blue to 194 red with 133 toss ups. 270 to win says Obama has 253 and McCain has 181 with 104 toss ups. Real Clear Politics says 238 (Democrat) to 163 (Republican) and 137 up for grabs.

They differ on how they categorize individual states too. For example, Minnesota: 270 to win calls it a strong democratic state, Real Clear Politics says leaning democrat, and CNN calls it a toss up. I believe that Minnesota will go democrat this year as it has every year since 1972. Minnesota along with DC was a lone Mondale holdout against Reagan in 1984.

Alaska: CNN calls it a strong republican state, Real Clear Politics says leaning republican, and 270 says toss up. I think there is a possibility that Alaska *might* go blue this year, but not if McCain picks Sarah Palin for his running mate.

New Mexico: 270 says Leaning Democrat, Real Clear Politics says Toss up and CNN says Leaning Republican. I really have no idea on this one.

Iowa: 270 and Real Clear Politics says Iowa is Leaning Democrat. CNN still calls it a toss up. I don't think it is much of a toss up. It will go for Obama.

All three call Missouri and Florida toss up states. I think that Missouri will go Democrat and Florida will go Republican. All three call Georgia Leaning Republican, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Georgia is going to go for Obama this year. With a combination of Bob Barr taking some of the Republican vote and the large African American population there, I think Obama can take that state.

Anybody else find any maps or have any predictions?

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  • I think Missouri will go for McCain

    and Georgia too, but otherwise I pretty much agree with all your predictions.

    • Missouri

      What makes you think Missouri will go Republican? Prediction markets agree with you on Georgia, but they seem to be pretty split on Missouri.  

      • percentage of white evangelicals in electorate

        I know McCain isn’t their favorite, but still, Missouri and West Virginia have relatively high proportions of white evangelicals in the electorate. I think that will carry the day for McCain, although Missouri will be much closer than WV, because turnout of AA voters in Kansas City and St. Louis will be high.

        • Missouri Known Unknowns

          I think the gameplan for Missouri comes down to getting big support from three big groups.

          1. KC and STL Suburban and Exurban-ites.

          Hit the KC/STL media market with gas price/sub-prime issue ads.

          2. African-Americans

          Urban GOTV effort.

          3. College Students

          Big push at Mizzou in Columbia and (especially) the smaller campuses scattered in rural evangelical country.

          If Obama can make gains in these three groups, he will carry MO.

  • Chris Bowers at Open Left Posts an Election Map Update

    His election map is pretty good and comes out a couple times each week.

    Here is one from last week…