Electoral map

I'm not sure if Obama is going to be able take the South, but he does seem to be performing unusually well in some traditionally Republican states: Indiana and Montana for example. Bush won both of them by 20 points in 2004, but Obama is leading them in the latest polls (not by much, but still). It will be interesting to see if he continues to lead those states in the fall.

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  • if he makes McCain spend money and time

    in places like Indiana and Montana, that’s significant.

    I am feeling better to see Obama leading (not by much, but leading) in Michigan and Ohio.

    McCain has virtually no path to 270 electoral votes without holding Florida and Ohio. Even then, he could still lose if Obama wins the Kerry states plus Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico, or the Kerry states plus Iowa and North Carolina.

    NC is apparently a state where there is plenty of room to grow the proportion of general election voters who are black.

  • Florida

    I think McCain will win Florida. Florida’s median age is higher than any other state. That will play to McCain’s strength. Also the DNC controversy won’t help democrats there.  

    • FL is in the bag for McCain

      I can’t imagine Obama pulling it out there given the demographics. It’s also a state with a huge number of military personnel and veterans.

      I do think Hillary would have beaten McCain in Florida, given her strength among seniors and Latinos. However, there were other states like Colorado where Obama has a better chance of beating McCain than she would have.